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LDN/08/3.325

November 2008

Programme on a New Path for World DevelopmentManaging the Interconnected Challenges of Climate Change, Energy Security, Ecosystems and WaterPolicy Dialogue

Palace of Westminster, London,26

and 27

January, 2009

Background Note: Initial Outline of Policy issues

1. A Conference of legislators from the G8+5 countries with scientists and experts fromaround the world will be convened by GLOBE International and the Club of Rome in thePalace of Westminster, London on 26

and 27

January 2009. This Note is to be circulatedfor peer review and revision and will then, once finalised, be presented as a contribution to thediscussions. A short Executive Summary is also being prepared.2. This Note is based on the discussions and conclusions of an international conferenceof the Club of Rome which was held on 6

and 7

November in Winterthur, Canton of Zurich,on the topic: “

Managing the Interconnected Challenges of Climate Change, Energy Security, Ecosystems and Water.”

The Agenda included brief updated assessments of the emergingrisks, implications and opportunities of the four interconnected challenges of climate change,energy, ecosystems and water. It identified critical linkages between these four challengesand outlined strategies, policies and lines of action to contain and manage them in a coherentway so as to avert the risks of dangerous breakdowns. And it suggested priorities andmethodologies for further analysis and for the development of action proposals through aweb-based network for international research and collaboration.3. This Note has benefited from the meeting in Mexico City on 22

and 23

Novemberof the “International Commission on Land Use Change and Ecosystems” established by theG8 + 5 through GLOBE International.4. The Note is organised as follows:I.

BackgroundII.

Key Conclusions from the Winterthur ConferenceIII.

Implications for PolicyIV.

Lines of Action and Follow-up

- 2 -

Summary of Key Conclusions

1. Recent evidence from across the world implies that radical measures mustbe taken urgently to avert the risks of runaway climate change andecosystems collapse.2.

The world is headed into a perfect storm of interconnected environmentaland other crises. A forward assessment of emerging threats demonstratesthat business as usual and incremental improvement will not be sufficient.3. Besides negotiating longer term targets, mechanisms and capacities mustbe established to implement early action.

4. A new path of economic and social progress must be adopted which iscompatible with the environmental imperatives and limits of the planet.5. The financial crisis and the consequent economic slowdown provide anexceptional opportunity to move towards new patterns of more sustainableand equitable growth.6. The scale and depth of the challenges ahead will demand new ideas, newpartnerships, new mechanisms and radical institutional change.7. There is a deep need across the world for a positive vision to provide hopefor the future.

I. Background

5. Over the past forty years, the Club of Rome has evaluated the longer term challengesto humanity, taking account of their inter-relationships within a systemic view of the realitiesof today and the prospects for future generations. In a new phase of its activities, approved atits 40

Anniversary Assembly in Rome in June 2008, the Club has launched an internationalprogramme of collaborative research and consultation to define the elements of “A New Pathfor World Development” and to propose constructive lines of action

(see NPWD/08/1

).6. This programme takes account of the complexity and interconnectedness of globalchallenges. Within a coherent systems framework, it focuses its analysis on five clusters of interconnected issues: Environment and Resources; Globalisation; InternationalDevelopment; Social Transformation; and Peace and Security.

(For further information seewww.clubofrome.org.)

7. As the first step in this programme, the Club convened a small, high-levelinternational conference on “

Managing the Interconnected Challenges of Climate Change, Energy Security, Ecosystems and Water”

in Winterthur, Switzerland, on 6

and 7

November2008.

(ERC/2.8)

- 3 -

8. The threats arising from climate change have become a priority issue in recent yearsboth for the public and for decision makers. But it is essential to recognise that climate changeis only one of an array of challenges. If policy measures are to succeed, other critical,connected issues which threaten the future must also be addressed in parallel.9. Climate change is intimately interconnected for example with the ecosystems crisis,with the availability of fresh water across the world and with emerging issues of the securityof energy supplies related to “peak” oil. None of these critical issues can be understood andresolved in isolation: the linkages between them must be properly recognised in the search forsolutions. The Agenda for the conference was therefore framed in an integrated, systemsperspective to focus attention on the vital linkages between the issue of climate change andthe three closely connected issues of energy security, ecosystems and water.

(Document ERC/1.8)

10. In recent months, the financial crisis and the consequent economic downturn haveabsorbed the energies and time of top decision makers. But strategies to stabilise and reformthe financial system and to stimulate growth must be coherent with strategies to respond tothe threats arising in the fields of climate, energy, ecosystems and water: all these issuesshould be framed within a broad perspective of a new path for sustainable world development.The critical linkages between policies to address the challenges of climate change, ecosystemscollapse, energy security and water and policies to reorient and reform the financial systemwill be the focus of a Club of Rome Conference to be held in April 2009 in Austria on thetopic: “New Economic Models and Strategies to meet the Challenges of the 21

Century.”11. This Note provides an initial outline of key points arising from the analysis andproposals of the Winterthur Conference. It will be revised and developed throughinternational collaboration for presentation at a meeting in the House of Commons in Londonin late January 2009, to be jointly organized by GLOBE International, (the Secretariat of theG8+5), and the Club of Rome. This meeting will bring together senior legislators andofficials from the G 8 + 5 countries with independent experts and members of the Club of Rome. It will provide an opportunity for the action proposals and insights developed as aresult of the Winterthur Conference to be considered in the formulation of positions andpolicies for ongoing international negotiations.

II. Key Conclusions from the Winterthur Conference

1. Radical and urgent measures are needed to avert the risks of runaway climatechange and ecosystems collapse.

(i)

Physical evidence and analysis from all over the world demonstrate that climatechange is moving faster than anticipated while emissions continue to increase inspite of all efforts and negotiations to date. Concern is rising in the scientific andexpert communities - which are aware of the facts and understand the science andthe systems dynamics of climate change - that we are approaching a tipping pointbeyond which the positive feedbacks set in motion by human-originatedemissions, (which stimulate further rises in temperature), will become moredamaging than the impact of the emissions themselves and will overwhelm ourability to avert potentially catastrophic climate change.