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Table Of Contents

Foreword
Nomura‟s China composite leading indicator
Comparing the Nomura CLI with other leading indicators
Caveat and remedies
Nomura CLI and equity and commodity prices
Methodology and components
Nomura‟s China heat-map
Selecting data for the heat-map
Heat-map indicators
Fixed asset investment (FAI)
Real estate investment
New floor space started
Automobile sales
Freight carried
Exports
Imports
Imports (ex processing and assembly)
Import volume index of intermediate goods
Overseas orders indicator
Quasi money
Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP)
Shanghai stock market turnover
Gap between PPI output and input price inflation
Yield spread
Economic Climate Index (ECI) - Leading index
OECD total leading index
Official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI):
Official PMI, seasonally adjusted (sa)
Sales revenue growth of industrial enterprises
Electricity production
Automobile production
Steel production
Chemical fiber production
10 non-ferrous metals production
Cement production
Cloth production
Yarn production
Chemical fertilizer production
Metal cutting machinery production
Recent Asia Special Reports
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The China Economy Compass by Hideyuki Takahashi

The China Economy Compass by Hideyuki Takahashi

Ratings: (0)|Views: 3,440|Likes:
Published by shortplay
China‟s economy is now the world‟s second-largest, contributing over two-fifths of global GDP growth last year – yet the availability, and many would argue, the quality, of its economic statistics is lagging. It is difficult to get a clear read on the pulse of China‟s rapidly transforming economy, let alone its outlook. Just last month, the official PMI and an alternative private-sector measure parted ways.
To help fill this void, we are pleased to present Nomura‟s latest Anchor Report, The China compass, in which we present two proprietary quantitative tools that we developed to help navigate China‟s economy: Nomura‟s composite leading indicator (Nomura CLI) and a heat-map that tracks changes in 32 important headline and leading economic indicators in China.
Our two measures complement each other, and after considerable back-testing we are confident that they will prove useful additions to your tool-kit in helping to forecast turning points in China‟s economy.
We shall provide an update of The China compass each month.
This report builds on Nomura‟s continued effort to provide our clients with cutting-edge research. In terms of our China coverage, it follows November 2011‟s Anchor Report on China risks, in which we presented our China Stress Index (CSI), developed to assess the risk of a hard economic landing.
As ever, we welcome your feedback as we continue our tradition of delivering unique investment insight and ideas to our clients.
Hideyuki Takahashi Head of Global Research
China‟s economy is now the world‟s second-largest, contributing over two-fifths of global GDP growth last year – yet the availability, and many would argue, the quality, of its economic statistics is lagging. It is difficult to get a clear read on the pulse of China‟s rapidly transforming economy, let alone its outlook. Just last month, the official PMI and an alternative private-sector measure parted ways.
To help fill this void, we are pleased to present Nomura‟s latest Anchor Report, The China compass, in which we present two proprietary quantitative tools that we developed to help navigate China‟s economy: Nomura‟s composite leading indicator (Nomura CLI) and a heat-map that tracks changes in 32 important headline and leading economic indicators in China.
Our two measures complement each other, and after considerable back-testing we are confident that they will prove useful additions to your tool-kit in helping to forecast turning points in China‟s economy.
We shall provide an update of The China compass each month.
This report builds on Nomura‟s continued effort to provide our clients with cutting-edge research. In terms of our China coverage, it follows November 2011‟s Anchor Report on China risks, in which we presented our China Stress Index (CSI), developed to assess the risk of a hard economic landing.
As ever, we welcome your feedback as we continue our tradition of delivering unique investment insight and ideas to our clients.
Hideyuki Takahashi Head of Global Research

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Published by: shortplay on Apr 30, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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12/08/2012

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