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KY-06 Mellman Group for Ben Chandler (March 2012)

KY-06 Mellman Group for Ben Chandler (March 2012)

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on May 01, 2012
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05/01/2012

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3
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Chandler Barr Undecided
54%30%16%
Chandler vs. Barr
+24
42%strong22%strong
 Darker shading = stronger intensity
Chandler Enjoys A Large 24-Point LeadOver Barr
TO: Ben Chandler For CongressFROM:The Mellman Group, Inc.RE:Chandler Is TheOdds-On Favorite To Win Re-Election In TheKentucky 6
th
CDDATE:April 30, 2012
This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 400 votersrepresentingthe likely 2012 electorate in Kentucky’s 6thCongressional District. Interviews were conducted by telephone March 26to March28,2012, usinga registration-based sample. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.9% at the 95% level of confidence. The marginof error is higher for subgroups.
BenChandleris very well-positioned to retain his seat in Congress. The 6
th
CD presents veryunfavorable political terrain to a Republican candidate, with alarge Democratic advantage in partisanship and voters who feel much more favorably toward Democratic political figures than towardRepublicans. Chandler is both quite popular and quite well known among district voters, while AndyBarr is neither. As a result, Chandler begins this race with a large 24-point leada daunting challengefor his opponenteven in the most favorable of circumstances.
Chandler Enjoys A Hefty Lead And Begins Over 50%
Chandler leads Barr by awide 24-pointmargin. A54% majority expresssupportfor Chandler oveBarr,compared to only30% who offer support toBarr. Thus Chandler startsthe race out well above thecrucial 50% mark that oftendistinguishes healthyincumbents from thosefacing trouble. And theintensity is on Chandler’sside as well. Forty-two percent (42%) of likelyvoters “
 strongly”
supportChandler over Barr, whileonly about half as many(22%) offer that level of support to Barr.Chandler leads Barr by 16-points among independent voters (45% Chandler, 29% Barr) and enjoys ahuge lead among ideological moderates (60%Chandler, 15% Barr). Chandler is crushing Barr by 3-to-1among women (62% Chandler, 22% Barr) and also leads among men (46% Chandler, 38% Barr). 

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