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CIA Report on Partition of Palestine

CIA Report on Partition of Palestine

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Published by IsraelMatzav
CIA report issued November 28, 1947 arguing against the partition of Palestine and the creation of a Jewish state
CIA report issued November 28, 1947 arguing against the partition of Palestine and the creation of a Jewish state

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Published by: IsraelMatzav on May 03, 2012
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09/10/2013

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CENTRALINTELLIGENCEAGENCY
THECONSEQUENCESOFTHEPARTITIONOFPALESTINE
ORE55
CIAHISTORICAL
REVIEWPROGRAN
RELEASEINFULL
28November1947
CopyNo.:~5
30oo1~
 
ORE55
sr
CopyNo.
35
8November1947
THE
CONSEQUENCESOFTHEPARTITIONOFPALESTINESUMMARYArmedhostilitiesbetweenJewsandArabswillbreakout
if
theUNGeneralAssemblyacceptstheplan
to
partitionPalestineintoJewishandArabstatesasrecommendedbytheUNSpecialCommitteeonPalestine(UNSCOP).Inflamedbynationalismandreligiousfervor,ArabsinSyria,Lebanon,Iraq,Transjordan,Egypt,andSaudiArabiaaswellasPalestinearedetermined
to
fightagainstanyforce,orcombinationofforces,whichattempts
to
setupaJewishstate
in
Palestine.WhilethegovernmentsoftheArabstatesarenotexpected
to
makeofficialdeclarationsofwar,theywillnotattempt
to
keeptheirpeople(especiallyfanaticaltribesmen)fromjoiningthebattle;theymayevenencouragesuchactionandfurnishclandestineassistanceaswell.Incomposition,thE'Arabforceswillvaryfromrelativelywellcontrolledquasi-
military
bandstotheloosetribalorganizationofthenomads.ThelargestnumberactivelyengagedagainsttheJewsatanyonetirne
will
probablybebetween
100,000
and
200,000.
TheArabsaregoodguerrillafighters,andtheywillbewellsuppliedwithsmallarmsandwillalsoundoubtedlyobtainsomeplanesand
tanks.
TheZionists,fortheirpart,aredetermined
to
haveastate
in
Palestineor,
in
theviewofextremeelements,allofPalestineandTransjordanaswell.WhatevertheUNrecommends,theywillattempt
to
establishaJewishstateaftertheBritishwith-drawal(nowsetbytheBritishforAugust1948).TheJewsareexpected
to
be
able
to
mobilizesome
200,000
fightersinPalestine,supplementedtoalimitedextentbyvolun-teersandrecruitsfromabroad.TheJewisharmedgroupsinPalestinearewellequippedandwelltrainedincommandotactics.Initially,they
will
achievemarkedsuccessovertheArabsbecauseofsuperiororganizationandequipment.Asthewarofattritiondevelops,however,theJewisheconomy(severelystrainedbymobilization)willbreakdown;furthermore,theJewswillbeunablecontinuously
to
protecttheirextendedsupplylinesandisolatedsettlementsortoplantandcultivatetheirfieldsinthefaceofconstantharassing,"hitandrun"Arabattacks.Withoutsubstantialoutsideaidintermsofmanpowerandmaterial,theywillbeable
to
holdoutnolongerthantwoyears.TheUS,bysupportingpartition,hasalreadylostmuchofitsprestigeintheNearEast.IntheeventthatpartitionisimposedonPalestine,theresultingconflictwillseriouslydisturbthesocial,economic,andpoliticalstabilityoftheArabworld,andUScommercialandstrategicinterests
'Will
bedangerouslyjeopardized.Whileir-responsibletribesmenandfanaticMoslemsarehaphazardlyblowinguppartsoftheoilpipelines.andattackingoccasionalAmericans,itispossiblethattheresponsiblegovernments
will
refusetosignpipelineconventions,oilconcessions,civilairagree-ments,andtradepacts.Thevariousprojectswhicharenecessarytoraisethestandard
Note:ThispaperhasbeencoordinatedwiththeintelligenceorganizationsoftheDepartmentsofState,Army,Navy,andAirForces.
1
 
s~
otliving
cannot
be
carriedthroughwithoutUSassistanceandguidance.WiththeUScommittedtopartition,suchdevelopmentswillbeshelvedindefinitely.Thepoverty,unrest,andhopelessnessuponwhichCommunistpropagandathrives
will
increasethroughouttheArabworld,andSovietagents(someofwhomhavealreadybeensmug-gledintoPalestineasJewishDP's)willscatterintotheotherArabstatesandthereattempttoorganizeso-called"democraticmovements"suchastheoneexistingtoday
in
Greece.
If
theUNrecommendspartition,itwillbemorallyboundtotakesteps
to
enforcepartition,withthemajorpowersactingastheinstrumentsofenforcement.Thedan-gerouspotentialitiesofsuchadevelopment
to
US-ArabandUS-USSRrelationsneednoemphasis.
2

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