Wholesale trade Retail trade Accommodation, cafes & restaurants Transport & storage

Decreasing Increasing

Findings
70

65
Increasing

Communication services Decreasing Increasing Wholesale trade Finance & insurance Retail trade Property & business services Wholesale trade Accommodation, cafes & restaurants Health & community services Retail trade Transport & storage Personal & recreational services Accommodation, cafes & restaurants Communication services PSI & storage Transport (Seas. Adj.) Finance & insurance 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Communication services 30 Property & business services Finance & insurance Health & community services Feb 06 Mar 06 Property & business services Personal & recreational services Health & community services PSI (Seas. Adj.) Personal & recreational services 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 PSI (Seas. Adj.)

OLD

OLD OLD
55 60

60

55

60 55

Increasing

OLDINDUSTRY CONSTRUCTION
Decreasing
"! The national construction industry continued to contract in April with
Diffusion Index

PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX

National PCI
65

30

35 40 Feb 06

45 50 Mar 06

65

70

APRIL 2012
60 55 50

Feb 06

Mar 06

DECLINES FURTHER IN APRIL National PCI

KEY FINDINGS
National PCI 50
65 45 60 65 40 55 60 35 Diffusion Index Diffusion Index 50 55 30 45 50 25

APR

50

25 Activity and Capacity

Australian PCI

UK CONSTRUCTION INDEX*

poor demand and subdued workloads resulting in a further reduction in activity and new orders. "! The Australian Industry Group Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI) in conjunction with the Housing Industry Association 45 registered 34.9 in April. This was 1.3 points below the reading in March to indicate a steeper rate of decline. The index has now remained below the critical 50 point level separating expansion from contraction for 23 consecutive months. "! Underlying the overall contraction was a sharp month-on-month decrease in apartment building activity. The commercial construction and house building sectors remained particularly subdued, although the pace of decline in housing activity eased slightly in the month. The slowest rate of contraction was in the engineering construction sector where activity was supported by the strength of resource-related projects. "! Most businesses linked the on-going decline in activity to subdued levels of incoming work and a shortage of new tender opportunities. Businesses also cited the difficulties in securing credit or other funding for construction work, project delays and weak consumer confidence as key dampening influences on activity.

Increasing Increasing Decreasing

AUSTRALIAN PCI

45

June 03 July 03 Aug 03 Sept 03 Oct 03 Nov 03 Dec 03 Jan 04 Feb 04 March 04 April 04 May 04 June 04 July 04 Aug 04 Sept 04 Oct 04 Nov 04 Dec 04 Jan 05 Feb 05 March 05 April 05 May 05 June 05 July 05 Aug 05 Sept 05 Oct 05 Nov 05 Dec 05 Jan06 Feb 06 March 06

34.9 MAR FEB

40 35 30

40 45 35 40 30 35 25 30

Apr 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 Decreasing Decreasing Australian PCI 3 month moving average

Apr 10 Apr 10 May 10 May 10 June 10 June 10 July 10 July 10 Aug 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Jan 11 Feb 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 May 11 May 11 June 11 June 11 July 11 July 11 Aug 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Jan 12 Feb 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 Apr 12

MAR 56.7

60 55 50 45 40 35

3 month moving average

60 55

Australian PCI

3 month moving average

85 Capacity Utilisation % (unadjusted) Utilisation % (unadjusted) Capacity Capacity Utilisation % (unadjusted)

Activity50 Capacity and

CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY AND CAPACITY

Wholesale trade "! In seasonally adjusted terms, the activity sub-index registered 32.6

Diffusion Index

Decreasing

Increasing

Activity and Capacity 45

60 40 55 60 35 50 55 30 Diffusion Index Diffusion Index 45 50 25 40 45 20 35 40 30 35 25 30

Capacity Utilisation

80

85 75
Activity Capacity Utilisation Capacity Utilisation Activity

GERMANY CONSTRUCTION INDEX*

in April. Retail below "! This was 2.9 pointstrade the level of the previous month, signalling a more pronounced rate of contraction in total industry activity. ommodation, cafesrate of contraction in apartment construction activity "! A steeper & restaurants weighed heavily on the industrys overall performance in April. This Transport & storage offset the slower decline in house building activity and the broadly unchanged rates of decline in the engineering and commercial Communication services construction sectors. "! Construction capacity utilisation remained at a weak level, despite Finance & insurance rising from a rate of 66.1 in March to 68.8 in April.

85 80 70 80 7565 75

FEB MAR FEB

30

MAR
55.7

65 60 55 50 45 40

Apr 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 Activity

70 70 65 65

Property & business services Health & community services Personal & recreational services

ACTIVITY BY SECTOR

IRELAND CONSTRUCTION INDEX*

onal PCI
65 60

Apr 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 Decreasing Decreasing

activity levels remain exceedingly weak. More positively,55 however, 65 30 35 40 45 50 60 the sectors sub-index rose by 3.0 points to 33.3 to signal a slower pace of decline. "! Apartment building activity declined at a sharp rate with the sectors Feb 22.9. Mar 06 sub-index falling by 7.6 points to 06 This was the steepest rate of contraction recorded by the sector in the past seven months. More worryingly for the sectors outlook, this reflected a sharp fall in new orders. "! The commercial construction sector remained subdued with a sub-index reading of 35.2. This was 0.3 points below the previous months reading, indicating a broadly similar rate of activity contraction. "! The engineering construction sub-index was also broadly unchanged, falling by 0.3 points to 40.9. Despite this negative activity reading, it remained the best performing sector.

70 by Activity60 Sector
Diffusion Index 55 Activity by Sector 50 75 45 70 40 75 65 35 70 60 30 65 55 25 60 50 20 55 45 15 50 40 45 35 40 30 Houses 35 25 30 20 25 15 Supported by: 20

65

Increasing

PSI (Seas. Adj.) "! House building activity continued to contract in the month and

OLD

Activity by Sector
20 75 70

Apr 10 Apr 10 May 10 May 10 June 10 June 10 July 10 July 10 Aug 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Jan 11 Feb 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 May 11 May 11 June 11 June 11 July 11 July 11 Aug 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Jan 12 Feb 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 Apr 12

20 25

FEB MAR FEB MAR 46.7

35

60 55 50 45 40 35

Diffusion Index Diffusion Index

Increasing Increasing Decreasing

Apartments

Commercial

Engineering

MAR FEB FEB

30

Apr 10 Apr 10 May 10 May 10 June 10 June 10 July 10 July 10 Aug 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Jan 11 Feb 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 May 11 May 11 June 11 June 11 July 11 July 11 Aug 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Jan 12 Feb 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 Apr 12

15 New Orders by business sector

*Prepared by Markit Economics

asing

www.markiteconomics.com Houses Apartments

Commercial

Engineering

Diffusion Ind

50 45 75 70 40 70 35 65 60 30 60 25 55 20 50 50 15 45 40 40 35 25 30 20 80 15 75 20
65

"! New orders (seasonally adjusted) declined in April for the 23rd

consecutive month. "! The new orders index registered 32.3 in April, a fall of 0.9 points on March. "! All four sub-sectors recorded a reduction in new orders. Weakness was particularly evident in apartment construction where there was a sharp acceleration in the pace of contraction. "! The further fall in new orders points to the continuation of significant weakness across large sections of the industry over coming months.

Increasing Decreasing Increasing

NEW ORDERS

WHAT IS THE AUSTRALIAN PCI?

The Australian Industry Group Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI) in conjunction with the Housing Industry Association is a seasonally adjusted national composite index based on the diffusion indexes for activity, orders/new business, deliveries and employment with varying weights. An Australian PCI reading above 50 points indicates construction activity is generally expanding; below 50, that it is declining. The distance from 50 is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. More information can be obtained from the Ai Group website www.aigroup.com.au

Diffusion Index Diffusion Index

Apr 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 Commercial Engineering
Average Wages

Employment and Wages Houses Apartments 30

Diffusion Index

NEW ORDERS BY SECTOR

75 70 60

60 55

Houses

Apartments

Commercial

Engineering

Employment and Wages

40 35 60 Diffusion Index Diffusion Index
Houses

EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES

on March.

30 80 75 50 70 65 40 60 55 50
30

Apr 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 Increasing

Apartments

Commercial

Engineering

Decreasing

a sub-index reading of 32.3. Although extremely weak, this was 3.8 points above the level in March, signalling a slower rate of contraction in new orders. "! New orders in the apartments sector declined for a 27th consecutive month. Moreover the rate of contraction was substantially more pronounced than in March with the sub-index registering 23.8, a fall of 11.9 points. "! For businesses operating in the commercial construction sector, new orders continued to contract, but at a slower pace than in March with the sub-index rising by 1.8 points to 34.2 "! New orders within the engineering construction sector also continued to contract with the new orders sub-index falling by 1.7 points to 34.5. The delayed timing of projects was reported as a key issue in the uptake up of new business.

Diffusion Index

55 95 35 50 90 45 85 40 80 75 35 70 30 65 25 55 15 50
70 45 30 25
Apr 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12

40

Employment

Decreasing

45

New 20 Orders/New Business 60

Apr 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12

Decreasing Increasing

Increasing

"! New orders in the house building sector continued to decline with

50 Deliveries, Input Costs and selling prices 65

Increasing

New Orders by business sector 70

Apr 10 Apr 10 May 10 May 10 June 10 June 10 July 10 July 10 Aug 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Jan 11 Feb 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 May 11 May 11 June 11 June 11 July 11 July 11 Aug 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Jan 12 Feb 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 Apr 12

Decreasing Decreasing

CONTACT
Peter Burn Director Public Policy Ai Group Tel 02 9466 5503 Harley Dale Chief Economist Tel 02 6245 1329 Markit Economics www.markiteconomics.com

"! Falling workloads and attempts to reduce costs were the main factors

cited for the further reduction in employment. "! Growth in wages continued in April, and at a slightly faster rate than in the previous month, with the sub-index rising by 1.2 points to 55.3.

40 35 30

Apr 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12

Employment

Decreasing

45

20

Decreasing

Deliveries Average Wages

Input Prices

Average Selling prices

Increasing

"! Employment continued to contract at a broadly unchanged rate. "! The employment sub-index registered 39.6 in April, up by 0.2 points

DELIVERIES, INPUT COSTS AND SELLING PRICES

90 New Orders/New Business

80

95

Diffusion Index Diffusion Index

Employment

25 30

April 2012 AUSTRALIAN PCI ACTIVITY -HOUSES -APARTMENTS -COMMERCIAL -ENGINEERING NEW ORDERS EMPLOYMENT DELIVERIES INPUT PRICES SELLING PRICES WAGES CAPACITY 34.9 32.6 33.3 22.9 35.2 40.9 32.3 39.6 36.7 65.5 36.0 55.3 68.8

March 2012 36.2 35.5 30.3 30.5 35.5 41.2 33.2 39.4 38.2 69.9 34.9 54.1 66.1

Monthly Change -1.3 -2.9 +3.0 -7.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.9 +0.2 -1.5 -4.4 +1.1 +1.2 +2.7points

New Orders/New Business

Direction Contracting Contracting 70 Contracting Contracting
Diffusion Index 95 Contracting 90 50 Contracting 85 Contracting 80 Contracting 40 75 70 60

Apr 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12

AUSTRALIAN PCI*

20

Apr 10 10 Apr May 10 10 May June 10 10 June July 10 10 July Aug Aug 10 10 Sept Sept 10 10 Oct Oct 10 10 Nov Nov 10 10 Dec 10 Dec 10 Jan Jan 11 11 Feb Feb 11 11 Mar 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 Apr 11 May 11 May 11 11 June June 11 11 July July 11 11 Aug Aug 11 11 Sept Sept 11 11 Oct Oct 11 11 Nov Nov 11 11 Dec Jan Dec 11 12 Feb Jan 12 12 Mar Feb 12 12 Apr Mar 12 12 Apr 12

35 35 40 30 30

Deliveries

Input Prices

Average Selling prices

Rate of Change Faster Faster Faster Faster Faster Faster Slower Faster Slower Slower Faster na

Trend ** (Months) 23 24 23 24 22 4 23 23 80 18 na
Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing

Contracting Slower Deliveries, Input Costs and selling prices

21

Expanding

Contracting Higher

65 30 Expanding 60

37

** Number of months moving in current direction

45 40 30

Apr 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12

55 *Results are based on a sample of over 150 companies. New monthly seasonal adjustment factors were applied in April 2012. 20 50

Decreasing Decreasing

to weak demand. "! The supplier delivery index registered 36.7, a fall of 1.5 points from March, indicating a steeper rate of decline. "! Input price inflation moderated in line with the further weakening in demand conditions. The input costs sub-index registered 65.5 in April, 4.4 points below the previous month. "! Indicative of the strong competition for available work, the decline in selling prices continued, although the rate of decline moderated with the sub-index rising by 1.1 points to 36.0.

75 70 65

60

70 65

Average Wages

IncreasingIncreasing

Increasing

"! Deliveries of inputs from suppliers declined again in April in response

75 85
80 70

Apr 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12

Deliveries, Input Wages Employment andCosts and selling prices

25

The Australian Industry Group, 2012 This publication is copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of private study or research permitted under applicable copyright legislation, no part may be reproduced by any process or means without the prior written permission of The Australian Industry Group. Disclaimer The Australian Industry Group provides information services to its members and others, which include economic and industry policy and forecasting services. None of the information provided here is represented or implied to be legal, accounting, nancial or investment advice and does not constitute nancial product advice. The Australian Industry Group does not invite and does not expect any person to act or rely on any statement, opinion, representation or interference expressed or implied in this publication. The Australian Industry Group has compiled this information in conjunction with information provided by HIA. All readers must make their own enquiries and obtain their own professional advice in relation to any issue or matter referred to herein before making any nancial or other decision. The Australian Industry Group accepts no responsibility for any act or omission by any person relying in whole or in part upon the contents of this publication.
*Prepared by Markit Economics
AIG11407

55 60 60
55 50
Decreasing

45 50 45 40 40

50

35 Supported by:

Deliveries, Input Costs and selling prices

www.markiteconomics.com
Deliveries Input Prices

Apr 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12

Average Selling prices