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389 GT Caucasus File

389 GT Caucasus File

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Published by: AffNeg.Com on Dec 21, 2008
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05/23/2010

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The CaucasusDDI 2008 GTBrad Bolman
The Caucasus
The Caucasus ..........................................................................................................................................................1U – Armenia/Azerbaijian ......................................................................................................................................2U – Ossetia ..............................................................................................................................................................3U – Ingushetia .........................................................................................................................................................4U – Kabardino-Balkaria ........................................................................................................................................5U – Georgia .............................................................................................................................................................6U – Abkhazia ..........................................................................................................................................................7No Ossetia War .......................................................................................................................................................8No Caucasus War ...................................................................................................................................................9No Caspian War ...................................................................................................................................................10No Turkish Involvement ......................................................................................................................................11
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus
1
 
The CaucasusDDI 2008 GTBrad Bolman
U – Armenia/Azerbaijian
Armenia and Azerbaijian have been permanently unstable since independence
DEFENSE and SECURITY
(Russia),
7/7
/08, “BAKU IN THE FOCUS OF INTRIGUE” lexis [BB]After the breakup of the USSR the
Transcaucasian states of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia turned out to be in thezone of permanent geopolitical instability. This circumstance impacts not only the foreign policy of these countries butalso their ability to build their statehood
.
Georgia and Azerbaijan lost control over part of their territories. Armeniabeing in economic blockade is painfully seeking a vector for development acceptable for it and has acute reaction tochanges of the established fragile balance in this sensitive region of the world.
Hence, during preparation of the visit of theRussian President to Azerbaijan, Moscow did its best to observe politeness: President of Armenia Serzh Sarkisyan visitedRussia previously according to an invitation of Dmitry Medvedev.
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus
2
 
The CaucasusDDI 2008 GTBrad Bolman
U – Ossetia
Ossetia instable now – they’re preparing for war against Georgia
Daily News Bulletin
(Moscow),
8/2
/08, “S. Ossetia May Order Full Mobilization, Recruit Volunteers in N. Caucasus – Kokoity”http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2467202&title=S_Ossetia_May_Order.html[BB]The
South Ossetian authorities are prepared to order general mobilization and announce the recruitment of volunteersthroughout the entire North Caucasus to oppose Georgia's attacks
, South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity said. "
If Georgiacontinues provocative actions, we will announce the recruitment of volunteers not only in the North Ossetia but in the entireNorth Caucasus and also carry out general mobilization in South Ossetia
," Kokoity told Interfax on Saturday.
Kokoity said hehad discussed the Georgian attacks with North Ossetian President Teimuraz Mamsurov
. Response fire opened by South Ossetianforces inflicted significant damage on Georgian troops, Kokoity said. "There are losses among Georgian personnel and hardware," hesaid. "A lot of strongholds on the Sarabuka Hill were hit, and in the morning we heard Georgian soldiers moaning and weeping, as noaid was provided to them - in fact, they were abandoned," Kokoity said. Georgia is currently concealing the true losses it incurredfrom South Ossetia's retaliatory actions, he said. South Ossetian forces have destroyed at least one armored personnel carrier, he said."A house belonging to a sniper, who earlier shot South Ossetian residents, has also been destroyed," Kokoity said. Residents of theGeorgian village "outraged by this man's activities" showed South Ossetian forces the house's location, he said. Kokoity admitted thatTskhinvali had sustained significant damage because of the attacks. "About 30 craters from large-caliber mines were recorded in thesouthern part of Tskhinvali alone in the morning," Kokoity said. South Ossetia has not known damages comparable to those caused bythe Friday firing since 2004, he said.
Russia’s threatening Georgia, threaten to use force
BBC
Worldwide Monitoring,
8/4
/08, “Moscow warns Georgia over escalation of conflict in breakaway region” lexis [BB]
Russia has accused Georgia of using disproportionate force in its breakaway republic of South Ossetia, and has called forurgent steps to avoid violence
, the Russian Foreign Ministry official website www.mid.ru has said. "
Moscow is seriously concernedwith the escalation of tensions in the region caused by disproportionate use of force by the Georgian side,
" Russian DeputyForeign Minister Grigoriy Karasin told his Georgian counterpart Grigol Vashadze by phone. "Tbilisi should realize that there is a realthreat of the situation developing in a violent way, and should take effective measures not to allow further escalation of the conflict,"the website quoted him as saying.
Stop fretting in your boots. There will be no war in Central Asia or the Caucasus
3

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