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Back Stopping and Renewables DAs - Symonds

Back Stopping and Renewables DAs - Symonds

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Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008
1Lacy/Symonds/BowenR&B (Oil)
R&B Index
Renewable Shift in the SQ (1/3) ......................................................................................................9Global shift to Renewables now ...................................................................................................................................12Renewable Shift Underway (1/6) ..................................................................................................................................13EU = Renewables now ..................................................................................................................................................19Renewables Brink .........................................................................................................................................................20Businesses Going Green ...............................................................................................................................................21Businesses Going Green – High Oil Prices ..................................................................................................................22Businesses Going Green – Public Pressure ...................................................................................................................23Policy changes reduce the price of oil ...........................................................................................................................24US consumption key to global oil market .....................................................................................................................25AE switch causes Oil Prices to drop (1/3) ....................................................................................................................26Cheap Oil halts Renewable Transition (1/3) .................................................................................................................29Cheap Oil boosts Consumption and Warming (1/2) .....................................................................................................32SUV/Trucks Add-on .....................................................................................................................................................34Oil prices declines = war ...............................................................................................................................................35***Backstopping DA*** ..............................................................................................................................................36Backstopping 1NC Shell (1/2) ......................................................................................................................................37Oil Prices are Stable (1/2) .............................................................................................................................................39 Natural Gas Prices High Now .......................................................................................................................................41A2: Renewables in the SQ should cause the DA ..........................................................................................................42Boosting Alternative Energy causes Backstopping (1/3) ..............................................................................................43Saudis will flood the market if Oil Prices drop .............................................................................................................46Multiplier: Saudi capacity would devastate the market ................................................................................................47Saudis are watching alternative energy closely to enforce prices .................................................................................48OPEC has Spare Capacity (1/4) ....................................................................................................................................49Saudis have Spare Capacity (1/2) .................................................................................................................................53Oil production can pace demand ...................................................................................................................................55OPEC perceives biofuel investment .............................................................................................................................56Backstopping Crushes Renewables (1/2) ......................................................................................................................57Perceived Backstopping Causes Oil Price Drop (1/2) ..................................................................................................59Backstopping will lower Oil Prices ..............................................................................................................................61Cheap Oil increases Consumption (1/3) .......................................................................................................................62A2: OPEC can’t flood the market – they’ll create the perception ................................................................................65***Renewables DA Answers*** ..................................................................................................................................66 No transition to Renewables now (1/2) .........................................................................................................................67SQ Renewables DO NOT solve the case ......................................................................................................................71SQ Biofuels investments are way small/slow ...............................................................................................................72 No Price Drop – Chinese Demand will fill in (1/5) ......................................................................................................73 No Price Drop – China/India Demand will fill in (1/4) ................................................................................................78 No Price Drop – General Fill In (1/2) ...........................................................................................................................82Alternative Incentives don’t reduce Oil Prices .............................................................................................................84Price Drop doesn’t Crush Renewables ..........................................................................................................................85Turn – Alternatives Increase Energy Prices ..................................................................................................................86A2: If you solve, you link .............................................................................................................................................87***Backstopping DA Answers*** ...............................................................................................................................88High Oil Prices Inevitable (1/2) ....................................................................................................................................89Oil Price Swings Now (1/4) ..........................................................................................................................................91 No Backstopping – Production Bottlenecks (1/4) .........................................................................................................95A2: Backstopping – Oil Prices will stay high ...............................................................................................................99TURN: OPEC will cut production and increase prices ...............................................................................................100
 
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008
2Lacy/Symonds/BowenR&B (Oil)
A2: Renewables increase Oil capacity ........................................................................................................................101OPEC can’t flood the market – No spare capacity (1/7) .............................................................................................102Saudi Arabia can’t flood the market – no spare capacity (1/3) ...................................................................................109Saudi Arabia can’t flood the market – Production problems ......................................................................................112Saudi Arabia will only slightly increase production ...................................................................................................113Saudi Arabia won’t flood the market ..........................................................................................................................114 Non-OPEC countries running out of capacity ............................................................................................................115OPEC won’t flood the market (1/3) ............................................................................................................................116OPEC can’t reduce Oil Prices (1/4) ............................................................................................................................119Crunch inevitable – OPEC can’t meet demand ...........................................................................................................123
 
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008
3Lacy/Symonds/BowenR&B (Oil)
R&B Shell (1/3)
A. Alternative energy transition already underway thanks to oil prices
Lynas, author of 'High Tide', ‘
08
Mark,
 New Statesman
, “After the Oil Crunch?” 6/12/08, http://www.newstatesman.com/environment/2008/06/oil- prices-lynas-world-carbon Accessed: 7/2/08
But peak oil may not be quite the crisis the catastrophists predict. So far, the price hike has been anenvironmental boon: the rise in fossil fuel prices has made emitting carbon more expensive, helping tomake up for the more or less total failure of world climate change policymaking. Higher oil prices havemade renewables more competitive
,
spurring rapid developments in wind and solar power
: installedcapacities of each are now doubling every two years. In the US, SUV sales have slumped - General Motorsmay now drop t he Hummer and focus production instead on its new plug-in electric hybrid model, theChevrolet Volt. The aviation industry has seen its profits evaporate, with many analysts declaring that the eraof cheap flights is over. All of these should be causes for celebration
. In global warming terms, oil at $139a barrel has been the best thing to happen for a decade.
B. Adoption of renewable energy lowers price of fossil fuels significantlyGoldman
Chairman and Founder of both BrightSource Energy Inc. and LUZ II, Ltd (which in turn is a worldleader in construction of solar arrays). Currently working at Tel Aviv University.
’08
Arnold,
TAU 
“RenewableEnergy and Beyond” May 2008http://energy08.tau.ac.il/media/goldman.pdf Accessed:7/6/08
Large scale adoption of 
solar and other 
renewable technologies
, coupled with the implementation of strongregulations encouraging the conversion of transportation systems to plug-in hybrid and electric vehicletechnology,
will reduce the demand of fossil fuel significantly. The price of fossil fuel would drop tomuch lower levels and materially reduce the balance of payment deficit
, and economic drain on manyeconomies. These economic benefits attained by the substitution of renewable energy should find some wayof positively entering into the renewable energy pricing system.

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