CNDI 2008CAMP STARTER SET
NATURAL GAS DISAD AFF / NEG
NATURAL GAS DISAD – CNDI 1/2
NATURAL GAS DISAD – CNDI 1/2.............................................................................................................1 NATURAL GAS DISAD – 1NC.....................................................................................................................3 NATURAL GAS DISAD – 1NC.....................................................................................................................4 NATURAL GAS DISAD – 1NC.....................................................................................................................5 NATURAL GAS DISAD – 1NC.....................................................................................................................6 NATURAL GAS DISAD – 1NC.....................................................................................................................7 ________________..........................................................................................................................................8***UNIQUENESS...........................................................................................................................................8U – SHORT TERM / AT OIL PRICES ...........................................................................................................9U – LONG TERM .........................................................................................................................................10U – LONG TERM .........................................................................................................................................11U – NEW SUPPLY .......................................................................................................................................12U – NEW SUPPLY .......................................................................................................................................13U – NEW SUPPLY .......................................................................................................................................14U – AT VOLATILITY / PRICES HIGH ......................................................................................................16U – AT VOLATILITY / PRICES HIGH ......................................................................................................17 _________......................................................................................................................................................18***LINKS.......................................................................................................................................................18Links – CO2 Cap............................................................................................................................................19Links – Permits...............................................................................................................................................20Links – Permits...............................................................................................................................................21Links – High Oil Prices..................................................................................................................................22Links – AT Turns (Efficiency / Renewables).................................................................................................23Links – AT Turns (Efficiency / Renewables).................................................................................................24Links – AT Turns (Efficiency / Renewables).................................................................................................25 ______________________________________________............................................................................26***HIGH PRICES IMPACTS THAT TURN THE CASE............................................................................26Low Prices Key Oil Peak................................................................................................................................27 _______________________..........................................................................................................................28***ECONOMY IMPACTS............................................................................................................................281NC/2NC – Economy Impact.........................................................................................................................291NC/2NC – Economy Impact.........................................................................................................................30Internal Link – Hits All Businesses................................................................................................................31Internal Link – Recession...............................................................................................................................32Terminal Econ Impacts...................................................................................................................................33Terminal Econ Impacts...................................................................................................................................34 _____________________________________________..............................................................................35***CHEMICAL INDUSTRY IMPACTS – EXTERNAL.............................................................................351NC/2NC – Chemical Industry Impact .........................................................................................................361NC/2NC – Chemical Industry Impact .........................................................................................................37High Prices Kill Chemical Industry................................................................................................................38High Prices Kill Chemical Industry................................................................................................................39 ________________________________________________........................................................................40***MANUFACTURING SHIFT IMPACTS – EXTERNAL........................................................................401NC/2NC – Manufacturing Shift Impact.......................................................................................................411NC/2NC – Manufacturing Shift Impact.......................................................................................................42High Prices Cause Manufacturing Shift.........................................................................................................43High Prices Cause Manufacturing Shift.........................................................................................................44Manufacturing Shift Key to Economy / Heg..................................................................................................45Manufacturing Shift Key to Hegemony.........................................................................................................46 _______________________________________________..........................................................................47***MANUFACTURING SHIFT IMPACTS – TURNS THE CASE............................................................47
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CNDI 2008CAMP STARTER SET
NATURAL GAS DISAD AFF / NEGManufacturing Shift Impact – Turns Oil........................................................................................................48 ________________________________________........................................................................................49***NATURAL GAS DISAD AFF ANSWERS.............................................................................................49 _____________________..............................................................................................................................50***NONUNIQUENESS.................................................................................................................................502AC NU – High Prices Now..........................................................................................................................511AR NU – AT New Supply ...........................................................................................................................521AR NU – AT New Tech / Supply ................................................................................................................531AR NU – AT LNG Solves............................................................................................................................54 ____________________________................................................................................................................55***LINK DEFENSE AND TURNS..............................................................................................................552AC – NO IL – PREDICTION UNCERTAINTY ........................................................................................562AC – MUST READ......................................................................................................................................572AC – Permits Key Efficiency / Renewables.................................................................................................582AC – Permits Key Efficiency / Renewables.................................................................................................591AR – Efficiency / Renewables......................................................................................................................601AR – Efficiency / Renewables......................................................................................................................612AC – Auctioning Solves Link.......................................................................................................................622AC – Permits Key Natural Gas Industry......................................................................................................63 _____________________..............................................................................................................................64***IMPACT ANSWERS...............................................................................................................................642AC – Warming Outweighs...........................................................................................................................652AC – Oil Peak Outweighs.............................................................................................................................662AC – Chemicals Impact................................................................................................................................672AC – Chemicals Impact................................................................................................................................682AC – Chemicals Impact................................................................................................................................691AR – High Prices Kill Chemicals Now........................................................................................................701AR – High Prices Don’t Impact Chemicals..................................................................................................711AR – High Prices Increase Chemical Revenues...........................................................................................72
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CNDI 2008CAMP STARTER SET
NATURAL GAS DISAD AFF / NEG
NATURAL GAS DISAD – 1NC
A – UNIQUENESS MULTIPLE MARKET PRESSURES WILL DRIVE DOWN NATURAL GAS PRICES IN THEMEDIUM AND LONG TERMFOSTER NATURAL GAS REPORT
5-16-
2008
U.S. natural gas prices could fall
"substantially" over the next three to four years,
according to StrategicEnergy & Economic Research Inc. (SEER). Henry Hub prices could decline by as much as $2/MMBtu by2012, said SEER's CEO Ron Denhardt in a presentation today. Quoting the famous New York YankeesYogi Berra - "the future isn't what it use to be" - Denhardt warned that several economic conditions would
drive down U.S. natural gas prices
, including a
weak dollar,
a strong
demand response, and higher-than-expected growth in natural gas production, among other things.
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