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Da Aff Peak Coal

Da Aff Peak Coal

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Published by: AffNeg.Com on Dec 21, 2008
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UMKC SDI 2008Reactors NegativeLouGie LabPeak Coal
Peak Coal Answers
Peak Coal Answers..........................................................................................................................................................1 No coal peak....................................................................................................................................................................2Inherency – no new coal plants.......................................................................................................................................3Inherency – no new coal plants.......................................................................................................................................4A2: Warming adv – peak coal takes it out......................................................................................................................51
 
UMKC SDI 2008Reactors NegativeLouGie LabPeak Coal
No coal peak
The DOE concludes that we have 200 years of coal reserves
Cathy Booth
Thomas
. “Is Coal Golden?” Time Oct. 02, 20
06
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1541270,00.html?iid=chix-sphere
Over the next 25 years, the Department of Energy predicts the use of coal will provide an increasing portion of our power--up to nearly 60%,from 52%. Convened by the Secretary of Energy, the National Coal Council (McCall is a member) has laid out an aggressive energy plan usingcoal over the next two decades.
Coal production is expected to soar from 1.1 billion tons a year to 1.8 billion--mostlyfrom the West
 
, especially Wyoming's Powder River Basin. New transmission lines, like the $6 billion Frontier Line, will carry electricityfrom the coalfields of Wyoming to consumers in California. Peabody Energy, the nation's largest coal company, with 2005 sales of $4.6 billion,up 28%, and earnings of $423 million, up 140%, is in acquisition mode worldwide. The Bush Administration has put down its own $2 billion bet, largely by pursuing FutureGen, a next-generation coal- fired plant promising near zero pollution emissions--all in the hope of making thenation less oil dependent.
The U.S. is
, after all,
the Saudi Arabia of coal. We have more than 200 years of coal reserves atour current burn rate.
There are 440 coal-fired plants across the nation, with proposals to build 153 more in 42 states over the next decade,at a cost of $137 billion, to provide electricity to 93 million homes and support our energy-guzzling lifestyles.
Their arguments about bias are wrong – coal reserves are well known and accuratelysurveyed
Dave
Rutledge
, Chair for the Division of Engineering and Applied Science at Caltech. “The Coal Question andClimate Change,” The Oil Drum, 6/25 20
07
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2697
Oil reserves are rightly viewed skeptically at The Oil Drum, in large part because of fraud by the OPEC countries.
Coal reserves arecompiled by
the
national geological surveys, and unlike oil reserves, they are honest.
However, recently Dr. Werner Zitteland Jorg Schindler and their Energy Watch Group have written an important paper “Coal: Resources and Future Production” that shows thatthere are major problems with the reliability of coal reserves, and indicates that the reserves may be too high.
Coal is different from oil,and much of the intuition that we may have developed about oil from nights pondering TOD posts is wrong for coal. Finding oil is hard, and we have not found it all yet. In contrast, people knew where the coal was a centuryago. Once oil is found, it is likely to be produced quickly, so much so that discovery history is routinely used to predict future production
. On the other hand,
there are large coal fields that are almost undeveloped.
As an example,Montana has larger coal reserves than Europe, Africa, or South America, but it is producing less than 0.1% of that coal each year.
Our estimate of future coal production depends a lot on whether we think 
that the
 people
of Montana
will get into seriouscoal production
. Finally, in contrast to the situation for oil, the world market for coal is only partially developed. Most coal is consumed inthe country it is produced in, and there are large differences in prices, even in the same country. For this reason, we will analyze production ona regional basis. I will apply the techniques to coal that are routinely used here for oil, and consider the consequences for future climate change.People who are interested in more details can get the spreadsheets with the raw data at my web site, with lots of additional figures and sourcelinks.
2
 
UMKC SDI 2008Reactors NegativeLouGie LabPeak Coal
Inherency – no new coal plants
No new coal plants – legal setbacks and local opposition means that plans for over 100plants have been scrapped
Lester R.
Brown
, founder of the Earth Policy Institute, dubbed “one of the world's most influential thinkers” by theWashington Post and the recipient of 23 honorary degrees, a MacArthur Fellowship, the 1987 UN EnvironmentPrize, the 1989 World Wide Fund for Nature Gold Medal, and the 1994 Blue Planet Prize, the Presidential Medal of Italy, the Borgström Prize by the Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry. “U.S. Moving Toward Banon New Coal-Fired Power Plants,” Earth Policy Institute 2/14/
08
http://www.earth- policy.org/Updates/2008/Update70.htmIn a report compiled in early 2007, the U.S. Department of Energy listed 151 coal-fired power plants in the planning stages and talked about a resurgence in coal-fired electricity. But during 2007, 59 proposed
U.S. coal-fired power 
 plants were either refused licenses by state governments or quietly abandoned
. In addition to the 59 plants that weredropped,
close to 50 more coal plants are being contested in the courts, and the remaining plants will likely bechallenged as they reach the permitting stage
.
What began as a few local ripples of resistance to coal-fired power is quickly evolving into a national tidal wave of grassroots opposition from environmental, health, farm, andcommunity organizations and a fast-growing number of state governments. The public at large is turning againstcoal.
In a September 2007 national poll by the Opinion Research Corporation about which electricity source people would prefer, only 3 percent chose coal.
One of the first major coal industry setbacks came in early 2007, when environmental groupsconvinced Texas-
 based utility TXU
to reduce the number of planned coal-fired power plants in Texas from 11 to 3.And now even those 3 proposed plants may be challenged
. Meanwhile, the energy focus within the Texas state government isshifting to wind power. The state is planning 23,000 megawatts of new wind-generating capacity (equal to 23 coal-fired power plants).
InMay, Florida’s Public Service Commission refused to license a huge
$5.7-billion, 1,960-megawatt
coal plant
because theutility could not prove that building the plant would be cheaper than investing in conservation, efficiency, and renewable energy sources.
Thisargument
by Earthjustice, a non-profit environmental legal group, combined with widely expressed public opposition to any more coal-fired power plants in Florida,
led to the quiet withdrawal of four other proposals for coal plants in the state
. Republican Governor Charlie Crist, who is keenly aware of Florida’s vulnerability to rising seas, is actively opposing new coal plants and has announced that thestate plans to build the world’s largest solar-thermal power plant. The principal reason for opposing new coal plants is the mounting concernabout climate change. Another emerging reason is soaring construction costs. And then there are intensifying health concerns about mercuryemissions and the 23,600 U.S. deaths per year from power plant air pollution. (See data.)
No new coal plants – local opposition
Lester R.
Brown
, founder of the Earth Policy Institute, dubbed “one of the world's most influential thinkers” by theWashington Post and the recipient of 23 honorary degrees, a MacArthur Fellowship, the 1987 UN EnvironmentPrize, the 1989 World Wide Fund for Nature Gold Medal, and the 1994 Blue Planet Prize, the Presidential Medal of Italy, the Borgström Prize by the Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry. “U.S. Moving Toward Banon New Coal-Fired Power Plants,” Earth Policy Institute 2/14/
08
http://www.earth- policy.org/Updates/2008/Update70.htmThe Sierra Club, the national leader on this issue, is working with hundreds of local groups to mount legalchallenges in state after state. Other national groups that are actively involved
include the Rainforest Action Network, the Natural Resources Defense Council, and Environmental Defense. Information on the grassroots momentum to oppose coal plants is tracked onthe Web site Coal Moratorium NOW!
States that are working to reduce carbon emissions are banding together todiscourage other states from building new coal plants simply because it would cancel their own carbon reductionefforts.
In late 2006, for instance, the attorneys general of California, Wisconsin, New York, and several other northeastern states wrote toKansas health officials urging them to deny permits for two new coal power plants of 700 megawatts each. The permits were subsequentlydenied, citing that carbon dioxide is an air pollutant and should be regulated, as determined in an April 2007 Supreme Court ruling. And in aletter on January 22, 2008, a similar grouping of states urged South Carolina’s Department of Health and Environmental Control to refuse a permit for the proposed 600-megawatt Pee Dee coal plant.
3

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