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Elections & Politics Main - Brovero

Elections & Politics Main - Brovero

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Published by: AffNeg.Com on Dec 21, 2008
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Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008
Page 1 of 289Brovero/Lundeen/MoczulskiElections & PoliticsMain
Elections & Politics Main File
Notes:
1.The shells fo
most 
of the scenarios are in the Elections & Politics Scenarios file.2.There is a shell included here for an “October Surprise” scenario. The scenario assumes that a big Obama win is bad, because if Bush thinks Obama is inevitably going to win, he will attack Iran before he leaves office, and an attack on Iranwould be bad. This scenario does not have a link in it – you need to tailor the link argument to the particular debate,arguing the plan would be enough to make an Obama win seem like it is inevitable enough for Bush to take action againstIran before his term runs out.3.The links to various cases are grouped together (for example, all climate & climate mechanism links are in one section).This means that the links in the section go in different directions – some of them work for Obama Good, some of themwork for Obama Bad. Be careful to read the links to make sure you know which ones are applicable.4.While the majority of the aff answers appear at the end of the file, in order to find link offense (and in some casesdefense), you need to consult the link sections of this file. The links are arranged by topic, NOT by direction of the disad,so you should make sure to check that the link arguments you are making go the correct direction to answer the disad(that is – don’t read “renewables controversial” to answer the argument that your renewables plan is unpopular. Youshould be reading “renewables popular”). You should also check in multiple link sections – some of the link cards in other sections may be relevant for your aff, depending on what combinations of harms, mechanisms, etc. you claim.Elections & Politics Main File ...............................................................................................................................................................1******** Uniqueness – Obama Good/McCain Bad ******** ............................................................................................................7Uniqueness Obama Win Now .............................................................................................................................................................8Uniqueness - Obama Will Win ...............................................................................................................................................................9Uniqueness – Economic Issues
Obama Win Now ..........................................................................................................................11Uniqueness – AT – Racism Will Hurt Obama ......................................................................................................................................12Uniqueness and Link – Centrism Weakens Obama Support ................................................................................................................13Uniqueness & Link – Flip Flop Hurts Obama .....................................................................................................................................14Uniqueness & Link – Environment Flip Flop Hurts Obama ...............................................................................................................15Uniqueness – Linkage to Bush Hurting McCain Now .........................................................................................................................16Uniqueness AT – Congress/Dems Unpopular Now ..........................................................................................................................17Uniqueness – Obama Winning Hispanic Voters Now ..........................................................................................................................18Uniqueness – AT – Uniqueness Overwhelms the Link – Obama Can Still Lose ................................................................................19Uniqueness – AT – Predictions Flawed/October Surprise Screws Up Disad .......................................................................................20Uniqueness – AT – Predictions Flawed/October Surprise Screws Up Disad .......................................................................................21******** Uniqueness – McCain Good/Obama Bad ******** ..........................................................................................................22Uniqueness – McCain Will Win Now ..................................................................................................................................................23Uniqueness AT – Obama Will Win ...................................................................................................................................................24Uniqueness – McCain Winning Christians Now .................................................................................................................................25********** Key Issues ********** ..................................................................................................................................................26Key Issue Energy ..............................................................................................................................................................................27Key Issue Energy ..............................................................................................................................................................................28Key Issue Drilling .............................................................................................................................................................................29Key Issues Economy .........................................................................................................................................................................30Key Issues Economy .........................................................................................................................................................................31Key Issue AT – Foreign Policy Key ..................................................................................................................................................32Key Issue AT – Immigration Key ......................................................................................................................................................33Key Issue – AT – Gay Marriage Key ...................................................................................................................................................34********** Battleground States ********** ....................................................................................................................................35Battleground Swing States Key ........................................................................................................................................................36
 
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008
Page 2 of 289Brovero/Lundeen/MoczulskiElections & PoliticsMain
Battleground – Colorado – Unaffiliated Voters ....................................................................................................................................37Battleground – Colorado – Favors Obama ...........................................................................................................................................38Battleground Florida Close ............................................................................................................................................................39Battleground Florida Close ............................................................................................................................................................40Battleground – Florida – Key to Victory ..............................................................................................................................................41Battleground – Florida – Support Offshore Drilling ............................................................................................................................42Battleground – Florida – Support Offshore Drilling ............................................................................................................................43Battleground – Florida – Support Offshore Drilling ............................................................................................................................44Battleground – Florida – Oppose Offshore Drilling ............................................................................................................................45Battleground – Florida – Oppose Offshore Drilling ............................................................................................................................46Battleground Indiana .........................................................................................................................................................................47Battleground Indiana Ethanol ........................................................................................................................................................48Battleground – Indiana – Alternative Energy .......................................................................................................................................49Battleground Iowa Farm Bill/Flooding ..........................................................................................................................................50Battleground – Michigan .....................................................................................................................................................................51Battleground Michigan Renewables ..............................................................................................................................................52Battleground Michigan Auto Lobby ..............................................................................................................................................53Battleground Missouri Close ..........................................................................................................................................................54Battleground Nevada Close ............................................................................................................................................................55Battleground Nevada Alternative Energy ......................................................................................................................................56Battleground – Nevada Yucca Mountains .........................................................................................................................................57Battleground – New Mexico – Iraq/Offshore Drilling .........................................................................................................................58Battleground – New Mexico – Key to Hispanic Votes ........................................................................................................................59Battleground – New Mexico – Native Americans ...............................................................................................................................60Battleground – Ohio ............................................................................................................................................................................61Battleground Ohio Energy Key ......................................................................................................................................................62Battlegrounds – Ohio & Pennsylvania – Obama Win Now .................................................................................................................63Battleground – Virginia – Democrats Gaining Momentum .................................................................................................................64Battleground – Virginia – Set Precedent for Red States ......................................................................................................................65Battleground Virginia – Military Deployments ................................................................................................................................66Battleground Wisconsin ....................................................................................................................................................................67Battleground Wisconsin ....................................................................................................................................................................68Battleground Wisconsin Close .......................................................................................................................................................69Battleground – Wisconsin – Wind & Solar Popular .............................................................................................................................70Battleground Wisconsin Water .......................................................................................................................................................71Battleground – Michigan/Ohio/Florida/New Jersey/Missouri .............................................................................................................72Battleground – Obama Not Pursuing ..................................................................................................................................................73********** Key Voters ********** ..................................................................................................................................................74Key Voters - Women ............................................................................................................................................................................75Key Voters - Hispanics .........................................................................................................................................................................76Key Voters Catholics .........................................................................................................................................................................77********** Links ********** ...........................................................................................................................................................78********** Links Energy ********** ...........................................................................................................................................79Link Uniqueness Obama Edge on Energy Now ...............................................................................................................................80Link – Democrats Pushing Alternative Energy ....................................................................................................................................81Link Obama Supports Renewables ...................................................................................................................................................82Link – Obama Will Link Energy Policy to Bush .................................................................................................................................83Link – AT – Obama Won’t Spin the Plan .............................................................................................................................................84Link Renewable Energy Popular ......................................................................................................................................................85Link – Renewable Energy Popular – Special Interests ........................................................................................................................86Link Renewables and Relief .............................................................................................................................................................87Link Uniqueness – McCain Edge on Energy Now ..............................................................................................................................88Link – Energy/Environment Issue Hurts Obama .................................................................................................................................89Link – Energy/Environment Issue Hurts Obama/Helps McCain .........................................................................................................90Link – McCain Will Bash Obama on Energy ......................................................................................................................................91Link – Energy Policy Spends Political Capital ....................................................................................................................................92Link – Energy Policy Spends Political Capital ....................................................................................................................................93
 
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008
Page 3 of 289Brovero/Lundeen/MoczulskiElections & PoliticsMain
Link – Energy Action Requires Political Capital .................................................................................................................................94Link – Energy Action Requires Political Capital .................................................................................................................................95Link – Energy Action Requires Political Capital .................................................................................................................................96Link – Energy Action Requires Political Capital .................................................................................................................................97Link Energy Action is Partisan .........................................................................................................................................................98Link Alternative Energy Spends Capital ...........................................................................................................................................99Link Energy Relief Popular ............................................................................................................................................................100********** Links Incentives ********** ....................................................................................................................................101Link Incentives Politically Popular .................................................................................................................................................102Link – Renewable Portfolio Standard Controversial .........................................................................................................................103Link – Obama Supports Renewable Portfolio Standard ....................................................................................................................104Link – Obama Supports/McCain Opposes Tax Incentives for Alternatives ......................................................................................105Link – Obama Supports Energy Efficient Buildings .........................................................................................................................106Links – Obama Supports Redeveloping Brownfields ........................................................................................................................107Link – McCain Support for Renewable Incentives Weak ..................................................................................................................108Link – McCain Supports Energy Efficiency Tax Credits ...................................................................................................................109Link McCain Supports Procurement ...............................................................................................................................................110Link – GOP Opposes Tax Credit Extension without Budget Offsets .................................................................................................111Link – Republicans Oppose Tax Incentives .......................................................................................................................................112Link Spending Politically Unpopular ..............................................................................................................................................113Link Regulation/Mandates Popular .................................................................................................................................................114Link - Environmental Regulation Drains Political Capital ................................................................................................................115Link Environmental Regulation Controversial ...............................................................................................................................116Link Voluntary Measures Politically Popular .................................................................................................................................117********** Links Environment ********** ................................................................................................................................118Link – Public Split on Environment ...................................................................................................................................................119Link AT Environment Popular .....................................................................................................................................................120Link – McCain Will Spin the Plan .....................................................................................................................................................121********** Links Climate ********** ........................................................................................................................................122Link Narrow Cap-and-Trade ...........................................................................................................................................................123Link – Obama & McCain Differ on Cap and Trade ...........................................................................................................................124Link – McCain Supports Narrow Cap and Trade ...............................................................................................................................125Link – McCain Supports Expanding Carbon Capture and Storage ...................................................................................................126Link – Climate Hurts McCain with Conservatives ...........................................................................................................................127Link Cap and Trade Controversial ..................................................................................................................................................128Link Climate Policy Spends Capital ...............................................................................................................................................129Link – Cap and Trade Politically Unpopular .....................................................................................................................................130Link – Upstream Cap and Trade Controversial ..................................................................................................................................131Link – Fossil Fuel Industry Wants Federal Liability for Carbon Sequestration ................................................................................132Link – Climate Change Salient with Congress ..................................................................................................................................133Link Climate Salient with Public ....................................................................................................................................................134********** Links – Fuel Efficiency ********** ............................................................................................................................135Link – Obama Critical of McCain Battery Prize ...............................................................................................................................136Link Obama Supports Ethanol ........................................................................................................................................................137Link Ethanol Popular with Public ...................................................................................................................................................138Link Ethanol Lobby Has Clout .......................................................................................................................................................139Link Obama Supports Farm Bill .....................................................................................................................................................140Link – McCain Opposes Tighter Fuel Efficiency ..............................................................................................................................141Link SUVs Popular .........................................................................................................................................................................142********** Links Fossil Fuel ********** ...................................................................................................................................143Link – Fossil Fuel Subsidies Reductions Contentious ......................................................................................................................144Link Coal Lobby Has Clout ............................................................................................................................................................145Link Coal Lobby Clout Weak .........................................................................................................................................................146Link – Obama Opposes Drilling/Tar Sand .........................................................................................................................................147Link – Obama Supports Fees for Un-drilled Land .............................................................................................................................148Link Obama Opposes Gas Holiday .................................................................................................................................................149Link Democrats Oppose New Drilling ...........................................................................................................................................150

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