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KMT US-Saudi Relations DA

KMT US-Saudi Relations DA

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Published by: AffNeg.Com on Dec 21, 2008
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11474592.docPage 1 of 59
US-Saudi Arabia Relations Disadvantage
US-Saudi Relations DA 1NC.................................................................................................................................................................3Uniqueness – Relations Good (1/2).......................................................................................................................................................4Uniqueness – Relations Good (2/2).......................................................................................................................................................5Uniqueness – Oil Prices High................................................................................................................................................................6Link – Alterative Energy Reduces Energy Dependence (1/2)...............................................................................................................7Link – Alterative Energy Reduces Energy Dependence (2/2)...............................................................................................................8Link – Saudi Relations (1/2)..................................................................................................................................................................9Link – Saudi Relations (2/2)................................................................................................................................................................10Relations Good – Saudi Collapse 1NC................................................................................................................................................11Relations Good – Saudi Collapse – Reform Link / AT: Collapse Inevitable (1/2)..............................................................................12Relations Good – Saudi Collapse – Reform Link / AT: Collapse Inevitable (2/2)..............................................................................13Relations Good – Saudi Collapse – Oil Prices Link (1/2)...................................................................................................................14Relations Good – Saudi Collapse – Oil Prices Link (2/2)...................................................................................................................15Relations Good – Saudi Collapse – Economy Scenario......................................................................................................................16Relations Good – Saudi Collapse – Economy EXTN..........................................................................................................................17Relations Good – Saudi Collapse – Economy – AT: Case Solves.......................................................................................................18Relations Good – Saudi Collapse – Anti-Americanism Impact...........................................................................................................19Relations Good – Dollar 1NC..............................................................................................................................................................20Relations Good – Dollar – Euro Shift EXTN......................................................................................................................................21Relations Good – Dollar – Economic Collapse EXTN........................................................................................................................22Relations Good – Dollar – AT: China Alt. Cause ................................................................................................................................23Relations Good – Middle East Stability 1NC......................................................................................................................................24Relations Good – Middle East Stability – Link EXTN........................................................................................................................25Relations Good – Middle East Stability – Oil Link.............................................................................................................................26Relations Good – Middle East Stability – AT: Alt. Cause....................................................................................................................27Relations Good – Terrorism.................................................................................................................................................................28Relations Good – Terrorism EXTN (1/2).............................................................................................................................................29Relations Good – Terrorism EXTN (2/2).............................................................................................................................................30Relations Good – Israel-Palestine........................................................................................................................................................31Relations Good – Israel-Palestine – Link EXTN.................................................................................................................................32Relations Good – Proliferation.............................................................................................................................................................33Relations Good – Proliferation EXTN.................................................................................................................................................34Relations Good – Hegemony...............................................................................................................................................................35Oil Dependence Good – Mid-East Stability.........................................................................................................................................36Oil Dependence Good – Mid-East Stability EXTN.............................................................................................................................37Oil Dependence Good – Proliferation..................................................................................................................................................38Oil Dependence Good – Protectionism................................................................................................................................................39Oil Dependence Good – Chinese Rise.................................................................................................................................................41Oil Dependence Good – Iraq................................................................................................................................................................42Oil Dependence Good – Iraq EXTN....................................................................................................................................................43Oil Dependence Good – Turns Case....................................................................................................................................................44Oil Dependence Good – Dependence Inevitable.................................................................................................................................45Oil Dependence Good – AT: Mid-East Dependence............................................................................................................................46Oil Dependence Good – AT: Price Spikes (1/2)...................................................................................................................................47Oil Dependence Good – AT: Price Spikes (2/2)...................................................................................................................................48Oil Dependence Good – AT: Price Spikes – AT: Saudi........................................................................................................................49Oil Dependence Good – AT: Terrorism ...............................................................................................................................................50Oil Dependence Good – AT: Petro-States............................................................................................................................................51Oil Dependence Good – AT: Iran.........................................................................................................................................................52AT: Saudi Relations (1/2).....................................................................................................................................................................53AT: Saudi Relations (2/2).....................................................................................................................................................................54AT: Saudi Collapse...............................................................................................................................................................................55AT: Euro Shift .....................................................................................................................................................................................56AT: Euro Shift – PetroEuro Good – Economy ....................................................................................................................................57AT: Euro Shift – PetroEuro Good – Economy EXTN (1/2).................................................................................................................58AT: Euro Shift – PetroEuro Good – Economy EXTN (2/2).................................................................................................................59
 SDI 2008
 
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 SDI 2008
 
11474592.docPage 3 of 59
US-Saudi Relations DA 1NC
A. Uniqueness and internal link – US-Saudi relations are strong – oil is the key to maintain relations
Teslik 
,
CFR Associate Editor
, 5/16/200
8
 [Lee Hudson, "A complicated alliance,"http://www.cfr.org/publication/16255/complicated_alliance.html?breadcrumb=%2Fregion%2F413%2Fsaudi_arabia]
Seventy-five years ago this month, California’s Standard Oil Company closed a deal with the finance minister of Saudi Arabia, a country the United States had only officially recognizedtwo years earlier. The agreement granted the oil firm an exploration contract and initiated a multifaceted and sometimes thorny bilateral economic relationship.
Today, oil
still
dominates U.S.-Saudi ties
, which went on display May 16 when President Bush met Saudi’s King Abdullah. But the fairly straightforward buy-sell dynamic between theworld’s leading importer and leading exporter of crude is increasingly complicated by a host of other issues, from security cooperation to currency concerns. Bush’s meetings withAbdullah spotlighted this complexity. The past year has witnessed a historic run-up of oil prices, and some analysts are now projecting a “super-spike” (WSJ) that could bring even greater  price increases. With U.S. consumers feeling the pinch, Bush pressed Saudi officials to boost oil production as a way of easing prices. U.S. senators have already threatened to block amajor arms deal (AFP) between the countries if oil prices continue their rise. Some analysts say this focus is misguided. Given the way crude oil trades, there is only so much that can bedone by Saudi Arabia, which already produces nearly a quarter of the world’s crude. To a certain extent Riyadh already runs interference for Washington within the Organization of thePetroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), where some member states, including Iran and Venezuela, are pushing for production cuts (IHT). Saudi’s King Abdullah, who holds significantsway in the bloc, has resisted these calls and argued that OPEC should hold production steady. Given this dynamic, few analysts were surprised when Abdullah rebuffed Bush's calls for  production hikes (WSJ). Meanwhile,
a host of other issues are bubbling
.
The U
nited
S
tates
has sought a close working relationship oncounterterrorism with Saudi Arabia
, which is home to a conservative, majority Wahhabi Muslim population and is the origin of fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers.
Under pressure from Washington, Saudi Arabia has launched new efforts to crack down on militants
, including programs to findand rehabilitate jihadists (USNews). The U.S. State Department outlines the different means of counterterrorism cooperation it is pursuing with Riyadh in its 2007 Country Reports onTerrorism. These include intelligence sharing and encouraging Saudi Arabia to play a broader role as a stabilizing force in the Middle East. Along the same lines,
Washington haslong sought Riyadh’s support as a Sunni counterbalance to Shiite-dominated Iran and its proxies, including the militantgroup Hezbollah.
B. Link – Alternative energy dooms Saudi relations – cuts US oil demand
Marshall
,
DOD Office of Secretary of Defense
,
Net Assessment Director
, 1/8/200
2
 [Andrew, "The Sino-Saudi Energy Rapprochement," www.rice.edu/energy/publications/docs/SinoSaudiStudyFinal.pdf]However, it is not impossible to imagine shifts in US policies. Two sorts of shifts are possible. One change in policy wouldinvolve a combination of supply and
demand side policies
that
would
 
result in
 
a substantial reduction
rather than a growth
inthe US appetite for crude oil imports
. In the aftermath of September 11th, it is conceivable that the US would start to pursue policies that could substantially reduce the role of the oil in the transportation sector. Raising automobile efficiency standardscould reasonably reduced imports by 1 million b/d or more within seven years.
Enhanced R&D
 
in
fuel cell
technology
andhybrid vehicle technology, combined with a federal procurement program to assure that all US government owned vehicles werefueled by these non-conventional supplies
could shave
another 1 mb/d from
imports
within seven years. Under thesecircumstances,
the US would not only cease to be the high growth market for foreign oil. Its market would actuallyshrink, making it significantly less attractive for any major supplier, including Saudi Arabia
.<Insert Impact Scenario>
 SDI 2008

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