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Modeling DA - Scholars

Modeling DA - Scholars

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Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008
1ScholarsIndia Modeling D
1NC Shell 1/2..................................................................................................................................................................21NC Shell 2/2..................................................................................................................................................................3***Unq***......................................................................................................................................................................4Indian Econ High ...........................................................................................................................................................5AT: N/U - Indian Economy Low.....................................................................................................................................6AT: N/U - Global Econ Downturn..................................................................................................................................7Indian Consumer Confidence High.................................................................................................................................8Indian Business Confidence High...................................................................................................................................9Regulations Low...........................................................................................................................................................10 No Regulations Coming Now.......................................................................................................................................11***Links***..................................................................................................................................................................12Link – India Models US Regulations............................................................................................................................13Link – India Models US Regulations............................................................................................................................14Link – India Models US Subsides.................................................................................................................................15India Only Models US..................................................................................................................................................16India Only Models US..................................................................................................................................................17***Impacts***..............................................................................................................................................................18Regulations Kill Indian Economy.................................................................................................................................19Regulations Decrease Biz Con......................................................................................................................................20Econ Decline = India/Pakistan War..............................................................................................................................21India/Pakistan War Goes Nuclear.................................................................................................................................22India/Pakistan – AT: Limited Nuclear War...................................................................................................................23India Key to Global Economy......................................................................................................................................24***AFF Answers***....................................................................................................................................................25 N/U – Indian Economy Low.........................................................................................................................................26 N/U – Consumer Confidence Low................................................................................................................................27 No Link – India won’t model........................................................................................................................................28 No Link – No Modeling................................................................................................................................................29 No Link - No Modeling – Enron ..................................................................................................................................30Turn – Oil dependence bad for Indian econ..................................................................................................................31Turn - Renewables Key to Indian Economy.................................................................................................................32Turn – Indian Alt. Energy key to stop warming............................................................................................................33Turn -
Growth=War...................................................................................................................................................34 No India/Pakistan War..................................................................................................................................................35War inevitable - Kashmir..............................................................................................................................................36
 
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008
2ScholarsIndia Modeling D
1NC Shell 1/2
A. Indian economy strong nowIndiantelevision.com 6/25
(Consumer confidence in India has fallen: Nielsen Indiantelevision.com Team(25 June 2008 6:00 pm) http://www.indiantelevision.com/mam/headlines/y2k8/june/junemam72.php accessed July15, 2008)
Indians are optimistic about
the local
job prospects over the next twelve months.
With 86 per cent, Indians arethe second most optimistic people where the job market is concerned over the next 12 months. 26 per cent of Indian respondentsconsider job prospects in the country ‘excellent’ while 60 per cent respondents consider the job prospects ‘good’. Promising job prospects for Indians over the next 12 months makes them confident about their personal finances over the same period. 12 per cent of Indian respondents consider their state of personal finances ‘excellent’ and 67 percent consider it ‘good’ in the next twelve months. At 79 per cent in this positive frame of mind, India along with Denmark and Indonesia figures in the list of the most optimistic countries where personal finances are concerned.
“Inspite of 
an alarming
inflation rate, India is still a growing economy with theGDP ranging around nine per cent. There is still demand for talent in the market and especially withthe entry of various multinational brands the job market looks lucrative,”
 
continued Panchal.
B. India models US energy policyAtwood 2
(Emily R., J.D. Candidate, The Dickinson School of Law, Penn. State U, Winter,11 Penn St. Envtl. L. Rev. 101, lexis)
The tension between the need to enhance environmental laws and the drive to industrialize the countryexists throughout most of Asia
.
Ben Boer, the Co-director of the Australian Center for Environmental Law, recently noted,
"the incongruities between the need to protect the environment
 
globally and locally
,
and the nationalaspirations for development, are nowhere more acute and more increasingly manifest than in the Asianregion
." 
n11 The Asian Development Bank recently noted that "Asia's environmental performance has not matched its remarkableeconomic progress during the past thirty years."n12
 
In Asia's modern historical and political development, thegovernment and legal structures of the United States
and the United Kingdom
have often served as a modelof inspiration.
 
n13In this particular context, however, nations in Asia, such as
 
India, will not be able to follow theWestern model for industrial development because of a lack of natural resources
. n14The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) n15stated that "environmental degradation in South Asia is [*105] perhaps the most alarming in Asia." n16 Additionally,
India
,
like most South and East Asian nations
,
faces the prospect of developing in anenvironmentally sensitive age.
Unlike European and North American countries, South Asia must be environmentally consciousin the development of the country
; India, therefore, is not assisted by the paradigm of westernindustrialization.
Thus, India and other nations will need to deal with environmentally conscious development issues on their own.
C. Regulations kill economic growthInternational Herald Tribune 7
(Nov 16, Elisabeth Rosenthal, The New York Times Media Group)China and
India have resisted inclusion in global climate-change pacts, saying that emissions limitswould severely handicap their economies and efforts to improve the lives of their citizens. The UnitedStates has refused to participate in plans that involve caps on emissions, especially if developingcountries are not included.
Achim Steiner, executive director of the UN Environment Program, said that emerging economies deserved help in environmentalimprovement, which is often costly. ''It is a question of sharing the burden and how to do it,'' he said by telephone. ''That is at the heart of the negotiations.''
Indeed, T. Sankaralingam, managing director of NTPC, the largest Indian u
tility, said climate concerns inevitably took a back seat in countries that were still trying to pull millions out of poverty.
''The priority for our country is economic growth
and accessibility to energy for the people,'' he said at the energycongress. ''We need to build power plants and transportation systems.''He noted that 600 million people in India have no access to electricity. ''People below the poverty line should not be denied the benefitsof economic growth,'' he said.
 
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008
3ScholarsIndia Modeling D
1NC Shell 2/2
2. Economic decline causes India/Pakistan conflictSchaffer`2
(Director South Asia Program, CSIS and Former U.S. Ambassador, Washington Quarterly 2002)
Mediocre growth will extract a high price in terms of political and foreign policies
. Without reforms, India's economywill sag, leading to competitive subsidization and spiraling fiscal deficits. A more worrisome issue for the United States, however, is that
this situationcould tempt
India's
government to take an unusually strident line toward
Pakistan
and its other neighbors,which, in turn,
would increase the risk of some kind of miscalculation or desperate move by Pakistan.
Continues…Particularly striking about the building blocks for the new Indo-U.S. relationship is how little Pakistan figures in them. Yet, the long-standingdispute between India and Pakistan remains the greatest obstacle to the role India wants to play in the world, and
the possibility of unintendedIndo-Pakistani conflict is still the single greatest potential danger the United States perceives in South Asia.
Leaving Pakistan out of a discussion of Indo-U.S. ties would be disingenuous, particularly in the aftermath of September 11. India's unresolved problemswith Pakistan start with Kashmir, the subject of conflicting claims by India and Pakistan and the object of two wars between them as well as a continuinginsurgency, supported by Pakistan, in the Indian-held parts of the state. The list of problems between the two countries also includes a group of secondaryissues related to Kashmir, such as the status of the world's most desolate, disputed military installation on the Siachen Glacier in the high Himalayas, as wellas a number of other "normalization" issues, including trade and visa regulations. Since September 11, the level and frequency of violence has increasedwithin Kashmir and across the "Line of Control" that separates India and Pakistan. Statements coming from both governments provide no encouragementthat the leadership of either country is close to a sustainable formula for resuming talks about the situation. India's most recent initiative for beginning talkswith Kashmiri political leaders also seems to be going nowhere. Even worse, high-profile terrorist incidents, including suicide bombings of the StateAssembly building in Srinagar (capital of the part of Kashmir administered by India) and more recently at the Indian parliament in New Delhi, have raisedtensions between India and Pakistan dramatically. The most likely culprits in both cases are militant organizations that also appear on the U.S. government'slist of terrorist organizations, active in Kashmir but headquartered in Pakistan. U.S. actions since that latest incident have made clear that the freedom of action these groups have enjoyed in Pakistan is incompatible with the relationship Pakistan is now trying to establish with the United States. The regionalmilitary buildup that followed the bombing demonstrates how
easily such incidents can provoke a
cataclysmic set of reactions
 and how vulnerable regional peace is to another violent incident. Resolving these problems will require ahigh level of Indian and Pakistani leadership.Both countries , as well as Kashmiri representatives, urgentlyneed to start a process that will eventually lead to an arrangement that is comfortable for all three parties andthat addresses the issue of the Indo-Pakistani relationship and the problems of governance
within Kashmir. Any such process would be slow and crisis-ridden; finding a solution is a marathon effort, not a quick fix. The obstacles to the success of such an endeavor aredaunting. In India, coalition politics and broad popular resentment against Pakistan make it difficult for a leader to push even in the best of times for areasonable settlement of India's problems with Pakistan.
If India's economic performance is mediocre, this task will becomemore difficult.
For Pakistan, Kashmir has powerful popular appeal.
The political compromise required for a settlementwould be very painful, and the strength Pakistan's government has gained by confronting militant groupsover their activities in Afghanistan will not easily carry over to Kashmir 
. Without such an effort, however, the likelihood of new and dangerous confrontations over Kashmir is unacceptably high. Despite the new issues that unite India and the United States,
this all-too-familiar one remains at the top of U.S. foreign priorities and cries out for a sustained and sophisticated U.S.diplomatic strategy.
3. Global Nuclear WarFai`1
(Executive Director of the Washington-based Kashmiri American Council(Dr. Ghulam Nabi, “India Pakistan Summit and the Issue of Kashmir,” 7/8, Washington Times,http://www.pakistanlink.com/Letters/2001/July/13/05.html)
The foreign policy of the United States in South Asia should move from the lackadaisical and distant (withIndia crowned with a unilateral veto power) to aggressive involvement at the vortex.
The most dangerousplace on the planet is Kashmir
, a disputed territory convulsed and illegally occupied for more than 53 yearsand
sandwiched between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan. It has ignited two wars
 between theestranged South Asian rivals in 1948 and 1965,
and a third could trigger nuclear volleys and a nuclearwinter threatening the entire globe. The United States would enjoy no sanctuary. This apocalypticvision is no idiosyncratic view.
The Director of Central Intelligence, the Department of Defense, and
worldexperts
generally
place Kashmir at the peak of their nuclear worries. Both India and Pakistan areracing
like thoroughbreds
to bolster their nuclear arsenals and advanced delivery vehicles.
Their defense budgets are climbing despite widespread misery amongst their populations. Neither country has initialed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, or indicated an inclination to ratify animpending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention

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