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Plan drives up palladium prices – just 2 satellites would use 25% of the world’s supply
Annalisa Weigel, Aeronautics/Astronautics & Engineering Systems, MIT. “Solar Power Satellites: Historical
Perspectives with a Look to the Future,” AIAA Space 2007 Conference & Exposition September 18-20, 2007
http://lean.mit.edu/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=353&Itemid=1&mosmsg=You+are+trying
+to+access+from+a+non-authorized+domain.+%28www.google.com%29
The sheer size of the SPS structure simply cannot be overlooked. Each satellite required over 9 million pounds of
composite material. A construction rate of two satellites per year would consume 25% of the world’s
annual production of palladium. The required amounts for palladium and six other key resources exceeded U.S.
production rates at the time and required U.S. production expansion, foreign purchase, or expenditure of reserves. Substitute
materials would likely need to be developed to replace the requirement for gold. The rectenna site selection was a driver for schedule,
manpower, and equipment requirements. As the receiving apparatus for the microwave beam, environmental impact analysis cannot be
overlooked. The sheer size of the panel area also led to a high probability of multiple lighting strikes that could impart local physical
damage to the panels and propagating damage to circuitry.
Increasing inflationary pressure would cause wide scale revolt – current inflation already
has Russia on the brink
Tom Lasseter, “Russia worries about its high inflation,” McClatchy Newspaper July 17, 2008
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/164/story/44620.html
Larissa Vasilyeva wound her way through a bustling outdoor food market in a working-class neighborhood in southwest Moscow, tallying in her head the
rubles and kopecks she had left to spend for the week and wondering how much more food she should buy. A year ago, Vasilyeva said, she spent about
1,500 rubles a week on groceries, some $59 at the time. Now, she spends 2,000 to 2,500, about $107 at the high end. That's steep for a country in which the
average monthly salary was about $720 in May, according to official statistics. "We
have practically nothing left to buy clothes," said
Vasilyeva, a retired economist. "People are very unhappy about it . . . there may be a political revolt." Vasilyeva
knows firsthand what mountains of statistics show: Underneath the booming Russian economy, fueled by large
supplies of oil and natural gas, inflation is slamming many ordinary Russians. While the strengthening ruble
has helped — it's gained some 9 percent against the dollar since last July — inflation shows no sign of slowing. Inflation
last year in Russia was 11.9 percent, according to state statistics. In the United States, where inflation concerns are rampant, that figure
was just under 3 percent in 2007. "The impact is serious, it's one of the most difficult problems we have,"
said Tatiana Stanovaya, the head analyst at the Center for Political Technologies, a Moscow research center. "If the prices continue
rising, the ruling power risks losing the confidence of a very large part of the population." The Russian
Finance Ministry said last month that it was going to be difficult to keep inflation at its target of 10.5 percent this year. The
economic pressure has further highlighted the dramatic difference between the nation's wildly affluent nouveau
riche — often made wealthy by natural resources or connections to the government — and everyone else. "Frankly
speaking, I haven't felt it," said a Russian named Georgi, wearing Armani sunglasses, a Dolce & Gabbana shirt and twirling the key to his BMW. He was shopping at a market in
central Moscow, not far from the Kremlin and Red Square, which are next to Moscow's Lamborghini and Maserati dealerships. Georgi declined to give his family name, saying that
he didn't want to be identified publicly. But lower and middle-class Moscovites are hurting. Official statistics show that the price of a "bread basket" of 11 different food items
jumped by about 33.65 percent from 2006 to last month. And price increases may be far higher, many Russians say. Vasilyeva said that a liter of milk that cost her 15 rubles about a
year ago now cost 25 and butter was almost twice as expensive. FBK Co., a business consulting firm in Russia, said in an assessment in mid-July that because of high food costs,
those who lived below the poverty line would face inflation of at least 25 percent this year. Alarmed by the numbers, Russian officials have raised pensions and government salaries.
Inflation is particularly troublesome for the legacy of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who during his eight years as president trumpeted the progress made in the country since its
economic collapse in 1998. He went out of his way to address the problem as he planned the transition from president to prime minister earlier this year. "I'm perfectly aware of
everything to do with inflation, price growth and so on," he told a meeting of the State Council in February. But, Putin said, income and pensions had risen by some two-and-a-half-
fold during his eight years in office. The ruling party, United Russia, which Putin heads, recently proposed to the Duma that the government hand out debit cards giving needy
Financial analysts say that while there are some problems
families 12,000 rubles of credit — about $517 — each month to buy groceries.
with the Russian economy, it's important to remember that there are a lot of strengths — such as quickly
growing gross domestic product and vast supplies of natural resources — and the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, less than 20 years ago. "It's hard to
say now how normal the state of things is, and how well we're developing, because so little time has passed," said Polina Lazich, a senior analyst at AK Bars
Finance, an offshoot of a large Russian bank. While the nation's economy has experienced tremendous growth since Putin's first year as president in 2000,
some Russians struggling to make ends meet have begun to question the government's abilities. "The people think that the government is not coping with
inflation," said Elena Shumnova, who was shopping recently in a working-class Moscow market. "They criticize the government between themselves."
Yevgeni Pashintsev, another shopper there, agreed. "The government isn't dealing with inflation. It seems like it can't," he said, walking past stands of fruit
and vegetables.
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Solar Power Neg Scholars – Palladium DA
No palladium prices
Palladium prices are down – low US demand
Daily Times, “Oil prices spike as Iran N-row returns to haunt market,” 8/3 2008
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C08%5C03%5Cstory_3-8-2008_pg5_23
World oil prices faced a roller coaster ride this week, tumbling on US demand concerns before rocketing higher on resurgent fears about
the Iranian nuclear energy crisis, traders said. Some commodities fell in value as poor US economic growth data
reignited concerns about slowing demand for raw materials from the world’s biggest economy. Oil: Oil prices stormed
higher Friday after Washington set the weekend as a deadline for key crude producer Iran to reply to an international offer of incentives
for a freeze in its nuclear drive. “We expect a response this weekend,” Gonzalo Gallegos, a State Department spokesman, told AFP
without specifying Saturday or Sunday. In reaction, New York crude leapt as high as $128.60 per barrel and London Brent oil soared as
high as 127.94. Iran is the world’s fourth-largest crude oil producer and tension over its nuclear programme helped push crude prices to
record highs above $147 a barrel on July 11. Oil prices had tumbled on Thursday and earlier Friday after weaker-than-expected US
growth figures stoked fresh worries about the outlook for global energy demand. Oil prices began the week higher, rallying on Monday
after militants attacked a Royal Dutch Shell pipeline in Nigeria, leading the Anglo-Dutch energy giant to reduce output. The market
reversed direction on Tuesday after a report that US gasoline consumption fell last week for the 14th week in a row, according to credit
card firm Mastercard. But prices rebounded by more than four dollars Wednesday on news of an unexpectedly sharp decline in US motor
fuel stockpiles. The US government’s Department of Energy said that gasoline or petrol inventories dropped by 3.5 million barrels in
the week ending July 25, overturning market forecasts for a gain of 400,000 barrels. The news came amid the so-called US driving
season — when many Americans hit the roads for their summer holidays pushing up demand for motor fuel. By Friday, New York’s
main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for September delivery rose sharply to $126.76 a barrel, from $124 a week earlier. Brent
North Sea crude for September climbed to $126.20 from $125.02. Precious metals: Precious metals prices were held back by the
strengthening US currency, which weighs on demand for dollar-priced goods because they become more expensive for buyers holding
weaker currencies. “Dollar strength and improved US equity sentiment triggered further bouts of speculative selling in commodities,”
said metals analyst James Moore at TheBullionDesk. On the London Bullion Market, gold fell to $912.50 per ounce at Friday’s late
fixing from $920.50 a week earlier. Silver firmed to $17.59 per ounce from $17.55. On the London Platinum and Palladium Market,
platinum decreased to $1,675 per ounce at the late fixing on Friday from $1,726. Palladium slipped to $367 per ounce from
$383.
Russian inflation rates are lower than this time last year
AFP, “Kremlin warns of Russian inflation risk,” 7/28, 2008
Kremlin adviser Arkady Dvorkovich on Monday warned inflation was Russia's biggest short-term economic risk as the government
upped its forecast figure for 2008 to 11.8 percent. "Inflation is the biggest short-term risk" to the economy,
Dvorkovich told reporters in Moscow. "But inflationary pressures are going down. We expect it not to exceed
last year's level" of 11.9 percent, he added.
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Solar Power Neg Scholars – Palladium DA
This means there’s only a risk of our inflation scenario and no risk of their turn – raising
palladium prices causes an influx of cash beyond what is necessary to fund infrastructure
projects – guarantees short-term economic collapse – that’s Connon and Lasseter
Our impact happens quicker – Russian inflation is decreasing now but just one month of
higher rates triggers the impact
Interfax, “Inflation in Russia Won't Exceed 2007 Level This Year,” 7/28, 2008
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2444545~title_Inflation-in-Russia.html
Inflation in Russia this year won't exceed the level of 2007, when consumer prices rose 11.9%, Arkady
Dvorkovich, an assistant to the Russian president, told journalists on Monday. Inflationary rates in July
were already lower than they were in the same period of last year following rapid growth in consumer
prices in the first half of 2008, he said. "Overall inflationary dynamics are contracting and inflation
should not exceed the 2007 level at the end of the year," he said. Dvorkovich admitted that high inflation
remains the biggest short- term risk for the Russian economy, while accumulated inflationary potential
will likely make it difficult to achieve deflation in the next few months. "The Central Bank has done
everything it can. The money offering growth rates have declined and their further reduction could
have a negative impact on economic growth and liquidity on the market," he said. "It is important now
that in each remaining month inflation is lower than in the same period of 2007. This will be a sufficient
signal that the situation has improved," Dvorkovich said.
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Solar Power Neg Scholars – Palladium DA
Link – hydrogen
Reliance on Hydrogen increases demand for palladium – driving up prices
Emanuel Balarie, an experienced advisor who has advised thousands of clients over his career, Mr. Balarie brings
a wealth of knowledge to Wisdom Financial. “The Case for Palladium,” Fast Break, August 19, 2005
http://partners.futuresource.com/fbp/2005/0819.htm
Yet another source of demand for the metal is coming from the alternative fuel industry. With the price of oil
hitting over $66 a barrel, there has been a renewed focus on alternative fuel sources. Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology is one
area that seems promising. So much so, that governments and private companies have invested more than a billion dollars to
expedite its progress. In essence, fuel cells are electrochemical devices that turn the energy from a chemical reaction into electricity.
How does palladium come into play? Well, palladium has a natural affinity to hydrogen. It is able to
absorb and store up to 800 times its own volume of hydrogen. Since hydrogen fuel cell technology is
dependent on "hydrogen", the demand for the metal will likely increase as hydrogen fuel cells come to
fruition.
The US currently gets its palladium from Russia – they’ve got no evidence we’ll switch
suppliers
Orsa Maggiore, 15 years of trading experience in Milan, London, Chicago and Lugano working for a major US
bank and a Swiss Global MAcro Hedge Fund. “Russia Palladium Stockpiles, Sep 13, 2007 http://palladium-
bar.blogspot.com/2007/09/russian-palladium-stockpiles.html
The main importer of Russian Palladium export is USA (7 million ounces) followed by Switzerland (6.8
million ounces) and Japan (4.8 million ounces): USA and Japan consume Russian Palladium mainly to
produce autocalysts, as well as Korea. Italy is a car manufacturer country and a jewellery country. UK has
imported 1.2 million ounces of Russian Palaldium, but the bulk of it was shipped to USA as payment for
Norilsk acquisition of Stillwater Mining in 2003. China is also an importer of Russian Palladium and ots
imports are already significant if counted together with Hong Kong imports (China+ Hong Kong imported
more than 600K ounces from Russia) and I expect China to become within 2-3 years the main importer of
Russian Palladium.
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Solar Power Neg Scholars – Palladium DA
Platinum is more than FIVE TIMES the price of palladium – proves they crush the auto
industry
Reuters, 8/1 2008 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page504?oid=58503&sn=Detail
Platinum and palladium prices have fallen over five percent on Friday, sliding to the lowest levels in six months, due to declining
demand. Platinum slipped more than 5 percent on Friday to $1,658.50 an ounce, its lowest level since January 25, amid fears over
softening demand. Palladium also slid more than 5 percent to its lowest level since December 2007, tracking its sister metal. The moves
reflected a decline across the precious metals as the dollar firmed in the wake of U.S. jobs data and oil prices softened. Spot platinum
<XPT=> fell to $1,667.50/1,687.50 an ounce at 1243 GMT from $1,749.50/1,769.50 late in New York on Thursday. Spot
palladium also fell more than 5 percent to $356.00 an ounce, a seven-month low. It was later at $359.00/367.00 an ounce, against
$379.50/387.50 late in New York on Thursday.
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Collapsing Japan’s economy would cause nuclear war with China and destroy the global
economy
The Guardian 2-11-2002
Even so, the west cannot afford to be complacent about what is happening in Japan, unless it intends to use the country as a test case to
explore whether a full-scale depression is less painful now than it was 70 years ago. Action is needed, and quickly because this is an
economy that could soak up some of the world's excess capacity if functioning properly. A strong Japan is not only essential
for the long-term health of the global economy, it is also needed as a counter-weight to the growing
power of China. A collapse in the Japanese economy, which looks ever more likely, would have profound ramifications;
some experts believe it could even unleash a wave of extreme nationalism that would push the country
into conflict with its bigger (and nuclear) neighbour.
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Solar Power Neg Scholars – Palladium DA
A nuclear terrorist attack triggers retaliation the leads to global nuclear war
Easterbrook, visiting fellow - Brookings Institute, 2001 [Gregg, CNN,November 2, 2001, p. lexis]
Terrorists may not be held by this, especially suicidal terrorists, of the kind that al Qaeda is attempting to cultivate. But I think, if I could
leave you with one message, it would be this: that the search for terrorist atomic weapons would be of great benefit to the Muslim
peoples of the world in addition to members, to people of the United States and Western Europe, because if an atomic warhead
goes off in Washington, say, in the current environment or anything like it, in the 24 hours that followed, a hundred
million Muslims would die as U.S. nuclear bombs rained down on every conceivable military target in a
dozen Muslim countries.
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Solar Power Neg Scholars – Palladium DA