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Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008
1Lacy/Symonds/BowenOil Toolkit
Oil Tool-Kit Index
Peak Oil Advantage (1/9)................................................................................................................................................4***Hard/Soft Landing***.............................................................................................................................................13Hard Landing Now........................................................................................................................................................14Renewables key to Soft Landing..................................................................................................................................15Soft Landing Key..........................................................................................................................................................16Soft Landing is Linear – each step improves our landing.............................................................................................17***High Oil Prices Bad***..........................................................................................................................................18High Oil Prices Now (1/5)............................................................................................................................................19High Oil Prices Now – $200/barrel soon......................................................................................................................24High Oil Prices Now – A2: New Oil Fields..................................................................................................................25High Oil Prices Now – Production Delays...................................................................................................................26High Oil Prices Bad – Global Depression....................................................................................................................27High Oil Prices Bad – Hurts Growth (1/3)...................................................................................................................28High Oil Prices Bad – Inflation.....................................................................................................................................32High Oil Prices Bad – Transportation Sector................................................................................................................33High Oil Prices Bad – Hurts Oil Refining....................................................................................................................34High Oil Prices Bad – Global Poverty..........................................................................................................................35High Oil Prices Bad – Props up dictators.....................................................................................................................36High Oil Prices Bad – Disease, Poverty.......................................................................................................................37High Oil Prices Bad – Chinese Economic Collapse.....................................................................................................38A2: Oil Prices declines hurt the Economy....................................................................................................................39***Oil Shocks***.........................................................................................................................................................40Oil Shocks Brink (1/2)..................................................................................................................................................41Consensus Agrees: Shock timeframe < 10 years..........................................................................................................43Recession causes the Oil Speculation Bubble to burst..................................................................................................44Oil Shocks cause Recession..........................................................................................................................................45Oil Shocks cause Depression (1/2)...............................................................................................................................46Oil Shocks hurt US transportation sector......................................................................................................................48Oil Shocks hurt US consumer confidence (1/2)............................................................................................................49***Peak Oil***.............................................................................................................................................................51Peak Now (1/2).............................................................................................................................................................52Must Act Now to avoid the Peak..................................................................................................................................54Quick Action Saves Money...........................................................................................................................................55Peak Oil Coming...........................................................................................................................................................56A2: New Discoveries solve Peak Oil............................................................................................................................57A2: Technology solves Peak Oil...................................................................................................................................58Peak Oil will cause Oil Price Spikes.............................................................................................................................59Peak Oil causes Price Spikes in All Sectors..................................................................................................................60Peak Oil causes Global Depression (1/2)......................................................................................................................61Peak Oil causes Economic Downturn in Developing Countries...................................................................................63Peak Oil causes instability............................................................................................................................................64Peak Oil Causes Extinction (1/6)..................................................................................................................................65Overpopulation puts us on the brink of extinction........................................................................................................71Peak Oil causes anarchy................................................................................................................................................72***Resource Wars***...................................................................................................................................................73Oil Dependence Bad – Terrorism (1/2).........................................................................................................................74Oil Dependence Bad – Resource wars (1/2).................................................................................................................76Alternate China Resource Wars Scenario (1/2).............................................................................................................78Oil Dependence Bad – Resource wars with China (1/7)..............................................................................................80Oil Dependence Bad – Resource wars with China/India..............................................................................................88China/India war will draw in Japan..............................................................................................................................89Oil Dependence Bad – China War / Spratlys (1/2).......................................................................................................90China push for the Spratlys is likely.............................................................................................................................92US/China War over Spratlys = Nuclear War.................................................................................................................93Oil is Zero-Sum between US & China..........................................................................................................................94
 
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008
2Lacy/Symonds/BowenOil Toolkit
Chinese Oil Demand Increasing...................................................................................................................................95A2: China wants to cooperate.......................................................................................................................................96Alternate Russia Resource Wars Scenario....................................................................................................................97Oil Dependence Bad – Resource wars with Russia (1/2).............................................................................................98Oil Dependence Bad - War with Russia in the Arctic Circle (1/2).............................................................................100War with Russia goes Nuclear....................................................................................................................................102Resource wars most likely form of conflict................................................................................................................103Warming makes Resource Wars likely........................................................................................................................104***Food Prices***......................................................................................................................................................105Food Prices High Now................................................................................................................................................106Food Prices High Now – Oil (1/2)..............................................................................................................................107Food Prices High Now – Longterm Trend..................................................................................................................109Famine Brink (1/2)......................................................................................................................................................110High Food Prices = Famine.........................................................................................................................................112High Food Prices = Famine.........................................................................................................................................113Food Price Spikes Kill Billions...................................................................................................................................114High Food Prices = Regional Wars.............................................................................................................................115Oil prices are the root cause for food prices (1/2).......................................................................................................116Government action to incentivize renewables is key to solve....................................................................................118***Random Stuff***..................................................................................................................................................119Oil is key to Hegemony..............................................................................................................................................120Oil Scarcity Justifies Hegemony.................................................................................................................................121Oil Dependence Undermines US Soft Power (1/3)....................................................................................................122A2: SPR CP.................................................................................................................................................................125A2: ANWR CP............................................................................................................................................................126US-Saudi Relations Declining....................................................................................................................................127***NEG***................................................................................................................................................................128***Soft Landing Now***...........................................................................................................................................129Soft Landing Now.......................................................................................................................................................130A2: Soft Landing – It’s impossible.............................................................................................................................131***A2: High Oil Prices***.........................................................................................................................................132A2: High Oil Prices hurt the Economy (1/3)..............................................................................................................133A2: High Oil Prices hurt the Economy – Resilient.....................................................................................................136A2: High Oil Prices hurt the Economy – Alt Cause...................................................................................................137A2: High Oil Prices cause inflation (1/2)....................................................................................................................138High Oil Prices Good – Renewables...........................................................................................................................140High Oil Prices Good – Texas Economy....................................................................................................................141High Oil Prices Good – Reduces Unemployment......................................................................................................142***A2: Oil Shocks***................................................................................................................................................143A2: Oil Shocks – No Impact (1/4)..............................................................................................................................144Turn: Oil Shocks boost the economy..........................................................................................................................148***A2: Peak Oil***....................................................................................................................................................149A2: Peak Oil................................................................................................................................................................150A2: Peak Oil – Technology Solves.............................................................................................................................151A2: Peak Oil – It’s good, causes renewables..............................................................................................................152A2: Peak Oil – It’s a Myth..........................................................................................................................................153A2: Peak Oil – Oil is renewable (1/2).........................................................................................................................154 No Energy Crunch (1/3)..............................................................................................................................................156 New energy makes the crash harder (1/2)...................................................................................................................159Peak Oil Kish Links....................................................................................................................................................162***A2: High Food Prices***......................................................................................................................................163High Food Prices Good - Growth...............................................................................................................................164High Food Prices Good - Environment.......................................................................................................................165High Food Prices Good – Welfare..............................................................................................................................166A2: High Food Prices cause Famine...........................................................................................................................167A2: High Food Prices – Alt Cause, Global Capitalism (1/4)......................................................................................168***A2: Resource Wars***..........................................................................................................................................172
 
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008
3Lacy/Symonds/BowenOil Toolkit
A2: Resource Wars (1/5).............................................................................................................................................173A2: Warming causes disease spread............................................................................................................................178A2: Resource Wars with China (1/5)..........................................................................................................................179A2: Resource Wars with China/India..........................................................................................................................184Russia wants Cooperation with the West (1/2)...........................................................................................................185Russia can’t start a war with the West.........................................................................................................................187US-Russia Cooperation now (1/2)..............................................................................................................................188Alt Cause: NMD.........................................................................................................................................................190CP to solve Resource Wars.........................................................................................................................................191Warming increases cooperation over resources..........................................................................................................192***Random Neg***...................................................................................................................................................193High oil prices are driven by speculators (1/3)...........................................................................................................194A2: Speculators responsible for high oil prices (1/2).................................................................................................197Gas Tax CP..................................................................................................................................................................199Can’t replace Oil effectively.......................................................................................................................................200Energy Independence is Impossible............................................................................................................................201GW Fear / AE boost undermines Oil Refining...........................................................................................................202....................................................................................................................................................................................202
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