Miami InstituteOil NegJohnson/Gonzalez Lab
A. Uniqueness and impact- status quo ensures transition solving Aff
Agence France Presse
-- English June 4,
p. l/nClaude Roy, an interministerial official who is coordinating France's efforts in
biofuels, said "the real outcome liesin the battle of the yields
," a reference to the amount of fuel that is harvested compared to the energy used to produce it. "At present, the two techniques have low energy yields. We have to double present yields to make themviable. Tripling them would be ideal," said Roy. Such
improvements can only come through research anddevelopment and economies of scale in manufacturing
those in turn can only come through massiveinvestment
. For instance, the German firm Choren Industries is to build a biofuel refinery with a 200,000-tonnecapacity. The cost is a billion euros (1.55 billion dollars), compared with just 40 million euros (62 million dollars)for a similar facility handling rapeseed, also called colza.
Such investments are fine -- just so long as oil priceshold up
. In many minds are memories of a false dawn 30 years ago
. Investment in renewable energies surged inthe late 1970s but was wrecked when, a few years later, the price of crude plummeted and oil climbed back into the saddle.
B.1. Link- Seeing threats causes OPEC to flood the market
, Editor of Gas and Oil Connections, 4/17/
, p. http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ntm31691.htm(Alexander, “How OPEC keeps America hooked on oil imports”, Alexander’s Gas and Oil Connections)Many Americans dumped gas guzzlers for smaller cars. President Reagan ended oil-price controls, setting off a boom in domestic drilling and arresting, through the mid-1980s, the downward spiral in US oil output. Prices hit $40 a barrel in 1979 -- $ 100 a barrel at today's prices, after accounting for inflation -- and were expected to doubleduring subsequent years. Saudi Arabia worried that high prices would backfire. And to reduce US imports, PresidentCarter championed an $ 88 bn plan to develop synthetic oil from abundant US reserves of coal and shale. So SaudiArabia started selling oil at prices several dollars a barrel lower than the OPEC $ 34-a-barrel standard. Then, in1985, as the cartel was facing increasing competition from Alaskan and North Sea oil fields, Saudi Arabia andKuwait engineered a price crash. After a meeting in which OPEC decided to go after market share rather than propup prices, Sheik Yamani, the Saudi oil minister, said to several reporters: Let's see how the North Sea can produceoil when prices are at $ 5 a barrel. At low prices, the Persian Gulf countries have an unbeatable edge. In the mid-1980s, it cost them a couple of dollars a barrel to produce oil. It cost about $ 15 to produce a barrel off the coast of Britain and Norway or in the US.
2. Spare capacity exists in the system now
Emirates News Agency
p. l/nEnergy minister, Mohammed bin Dha'en Al Hamili has reiterated the commitment of the UAE and other oil producing countries to supply enough oil at a reasonable prices to contribute to the efforts to ensure global economicgrowth. Al Hamli made the statement in his address to the Asian Oil and Gas Show, which opens Wednesday here atthe COEX Convention Centre. "
We are aware of the importance of reliable stable supplies at reasonable pricesto growing economies in regions such as Asia. Producers and consumers are both in need of stability," AlHamli said in his address. He said the UAE and other OPEC countries had, over the past few years, investedheavily to ensure maximum production of oil reserve for use in case there was a hitch in production as aresult of emergency circumstances. "we have invested heavily to ensure that there is sufficient spare capacityto replace the occasional unexpected cessation of supplies caused by the weather, geopolitical tensions or theoccasional accident. That spare capacity exists but financial speculators many of whom have never seen an oiltanker or a refinery continue to drive prices up
as they hedge against inflation, the weakening US Dollar andseek new opportunities for quick returns in commodity markets," he stated.2