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PoliticsDA - Fellows

PoliticsDA - Fellows

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Kumar, Moliver, BeardonKentucky Fellows 08
Obama Good DA
Obama Good DA ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................1Party Time: 1NC .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................2Party Time: 1NC .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3Overview:....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................4Obama Wins: Wall ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................5Obama Wins: Wall ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................6AT: Uniqueness O/W Link ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................7....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................7Links ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................8Plan Popular Link .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................9Solar Power Popular Link .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................10Geothermal Power Popular Link ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................11Brazilian Ethanol Link .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................12 Nuclear Power Unpopular Link ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................13Do Nothing Congress Link .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................14Oil Lobbies Link ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................15McCain Likes Alternative Energy ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................16 Nuclear Power Popular .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................17McCain supports Nuke Power ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................18Internal Links ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................19Coattails Internal .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................20Bush Matters Internal .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................21Bush Matters Internal .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................22Spending Internal ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................23Voting Blocks ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................24Latinos Key ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................25Independents key ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................26Independents outweigh Hard Right .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................27Everyone is key- Goldilocks. ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................28Women/Seniors .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................29Urban Workers .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................30Religious Right = Dead .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................31..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................31Battleground States Internal .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................32Moderates key ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................33Alternative Energy = Election Issue .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................34Climate/Environment key 2008 Election Issue .........................................................................................................................................................................................................35Iran Strikes Bad ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................36Sweeter 1NC Impact ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................37Prolif ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................38Prolif ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................39Turkish Relations ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................40Oil Spikes ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................41Other Impacts ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................42Tax Cuts Bad 1NC ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................43Tax Cuts Bad 1NC ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................44Yucca Mountain Bad 1NC .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................45CTBT Good 1NC .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................46CTBT Good—Terrorism ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................47CTBT Good—IMS ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................48CTBT Good—IMS...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................49CTBT Good—Indo-Pak war .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................50CTBT Good—Indo-Pak............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................51Aff Impact Turns ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................52Iran Strikes Good .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................53Iran Strikes Good ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................54Iran Strikes Good ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................55AT: Oil Scenario ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................56Tax Cuts Good ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................57Tax Cuts Good ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................58Tax Cuts Good ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................59Tax Cuts Good: Evidence comparison ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................60Currency Dump Turn ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................61Yucca Mountain Good ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................62Yucca Mountain Good ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................63Senate Elections DA: Uniqueness: Democrats win ..................................................................................................................................................................................................64Senate Elections DA: Uniqueness: Democrats win ..................................................................................................................................................................................................65Aff: Uniqueness Overwhelms the Link ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................66Aff: Uniqueness Overwhelms the Link ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................67Aff: Elections Improbable ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................68 Non Unique: McCain wins .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................69Page 1
 
Kumar, Moliver, BeardonKentucky Fellows 08
Party Time: 1NC
[ ] Uniqueness: Obama’s winning now – he controls swing states such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac University Poll.: June 18
, 2008 OBAMA LEADS McCAIN IN FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY SWING STATEPOLL FINDS; CLINTON ON THE TICKET DOES NOT HELP DEMS. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187=
With strong support from women, blacks and younger voters,
Illinois Sen. Barack 
Obama
 
, the apparent Democratic presidential contender,
leads ArizonaSen. John McCain,
expected to be the Republican candidate,
among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous
Quinnipiac University Swing State
 polls released today
.
This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these threelargest swing states in the Electoral College.
Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:
Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent
;
Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent
;
Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent
.In the three states,
Obama leads McCain 10 to 23 percentage points among women,
while men are too close to call.
The Democrat trails among whitevoters in Florida and Ohio, but gets more than 90 percent of black voters in each state. He also has double-digit leads among young votersin each state.
 "Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama.
He now leads in all three of the major swing states, althoughhis margins in Florida and Ohio are small,"
said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute."Sen.
Obama is certainly not out of the woods, but these results are a Good indication that he enters the summer slightly ahead in the race to be the next president
."Page 2
 
Kumar, Moliver, BeardonKentucky Fellows 08
Party Time: 1NC
[ ] McCain’s support for green technologies is crucial to his ability to reach out to moderates andindependents and win the election
Horsley May 13
th
 
 by Scott Horsley May 13
th
2008. McCain Targets Independents with 'Green' Effort. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90411556But for the moment,
McCain's tone is very different as he tries to reach out to independent and moderate voters at campaigns stops in thePacific Northwest
.
McCain
visited a watershed center outside Seattle on Tuesday, where he s
tressed his commitment to environmental protection.McCain even planned a nature walk 
around Washington's Cedar River Reservoir, with reporters and photographers in tow, and held a roundtable discussion with agroup of Washington state conservation advocates. Sally Jewell heads the Seattle-based outdoor gear company REI, a cooperative with 3.5 million active members.
"Wehave members that span from the far right to the far left of the political spectrum,"
she said.
"But I think the one thing they all appreciate is ahealthy environment
."
 
By wrapping hIMSelf in the fleece vest of environmentalism, McCain hopes to reach out to that constituency.Herepeated his pledge to combat greenhouse gases by limiting the amount of these gases that companies can emit and encouraging those whoemit less to sell their permits to others. This "cap-and-trade" system is similar to plans proposed by Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and NewYork Sen. Hillary Clinton — albeit with less stringent limits on carbon pollution
.
McCain's Green Campaign Aimed at Moderate Voters
 
"
 
McCainsimply cannot win in November if he can't consolidate the center and win the swing independents who determine every presidential
 
election
," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political analyst. "His task is tough enough because of President Bush's unpopularity, the unpopularity of the Iraq war and the tanking of the economy. If he gets too identified with the right wing of his own party, he's going to alienate those swing independents, and he'll lose the election."
McCain is closely identified with President Bush in his support for the Iraq war and an economic policy built on tax cuts. But Sabato saysso far, that has not been the drag on McCain's campaign that it might be
. "Right now
, he has that maverick image,
and he's running 20 to 25 points better than the Republican brand," Sabato added. "The Democrats' job is to make sure that doesn't continue. McCain's job is to make sure that it does."
The environment is one area where McCain can put some daylight between his views and President Bush's
. Speaking on Monday in Portland, Ore.,McCain subtly criticized the president for not doing more to combat global warming.
"I will not permit eight long years to pass without serious action onserious challenges,"
he said.
McCain also went out of his way to praise Oregon's Democratic governor and to promise more bipartisancooperation
if he is elected president. "We need to draw on the best ideas of both parties and on all the resources a free market can provide," he said.
[ ] McCain will go to war with Iran
Edwards and Kane 1-28-2008
[David, Muriel, “Buchanan: McCain win would mean war with Iran,”http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Buchanan_McCain_win_means_war_with_0128.html]"
More wars" could prove to be the oddest of all presidential campaign slogans
. Especially if it works. Presidential candidate John McCain shockedobservers on Sunday when he told a crowd of supporters, "There's going to be other wars. ... I'm sorry to tell you, there's going to be other wars. We will never surrender butthere will be other wars." MSNBC's Joe Scarborough asked old-line conservative Pat Buchanan about McCain's remarks, saying, "
He talked about promising thatmore wars were coming. ... Is he so desperate to get off the economic issue?"
Pat Buchanan replied that McCain never used the word "promise" but simplysaid there would be more wars, and that from McCain's point of view, "that is straight talk.
... You get John McCain in the White House, and I do believe wewill be at war with Iran." "
That's one of the things that makes me very nervous about him," Buchanan went on
. "There's no doubt John McCain is going to be a war president. ... His whole career is wrapped up in the military, national security. He's in Putin's face, he's threatening the Iranians,we're going to be in Iraq a hundred years
." "So when he says more war," Scarborough commented, "he is promising you, if he gets in the White House, we'll notonly be fighting this war but starting new wars. Is that what conservative Republicans want? "I don't say he's starting them," Buchanan answered. "
He expects morewars. ... I think he's talking straight
 
, because if you take a look at the McCain foreign policy, he is in everybody's face. Did you see Thad Cochran's comment whenhe endorsed Romney? He said, look, John McCain is a bellicose, red-faced, angry guy, who constantly explodes."
[ ] US-Iran War leads to global conflagration
Hirsch 2006
[Professor of physics @ University of California San Diego. Jorge Hirsch, “America's nuclear ticking bomb,” San Diego Union Tribune, January 3, 2006, pg.http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060103/news_mz1e3hirsch.html]
If only conventional bombs are used in a
n unprovoked
U.S.
or Israeli aerial
attack 
against Iran's facilities,
Iran is likely to retaliate with missilesagainst coalition forces in Iraq and against Israel
, as well as possibly a ground invasion of southern Iraq, that the 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq would not be able towithstand.
Iranian missiles could potentially contain chemical warheads, and it certainly would be impossible to rule out such possibility.Iran
has signed and ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (in 1993 and 1997 respectively), however it
is still likely to have supplies
, as determined by the U.S.State Department in August 2005.
Early use by the United States of low-yield nuclear bombs
with better bunker-busting ability than conventional bombstargeting Iranian nuclear, chemical and missile installations
would be consistent with the new U.S. nuclear weapons doctrine
and could be argued to benecessary to protect the lives of 150,000 U.S. soldiers in Iraq and of Israeli citizens. It would also send a clear message to Iran that any response would be answered by a far more devastating nuclear attack, thus potentially saving both American and Iranian lives.
However, the nuclear threshold is a line of no return. Once theUnited States uses a nuclear weapon against a nonnuclear adversary, the 182 countries that are signatories of the Nuclear Non-ProliferationTreaty will rightly feel at risk, and many of them will rush to develop their own nuclear deterrent while they can. A new world with manymore nuclear countries, and a high risk of any regional conflict exploding into all-out nuclear war, will be the consequence.
The scientificcommunity (which created nuclear weapons) is alarmed over the new U.S. nuclear weapons policies. A petition to reverse these policies launched by physicists at theUniversity of California San Diego has gathered over 1,500 physicists' signatures including eight Nobel laureates and many prominent members of the U.S. scientificestablishment (http://physics.ucsd.edu/petition/). Scientists object strongly to the concept of WMD, that lumps together nuclear weapons with other "weapons of massdestruction" and blurs the sharp line that separates immensely more destructive nuclear weapons from all other weapons.
An escalating nuclear war could lead tothe destruction of civilization
. There is no fundamental difference between small nuclear bombs and large ones, nor between nuclear bombs targeting undergroundinstallations versus those targeting cities or armies.Page 3

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