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UMKC SDI 2008 Elections DisadvantageLouGie Lab Obama Good

Elections

UMKC SDI 2008 Elections DisadvantageLouGie Lab Obama Good

Obama Good 1NC

Obama winning now although the race is still closeOG paper

,Published on 07/22/20

, “Presidential odds: Obama maintains big lead against McCain”[http://www.ogpaper.com/news/news-02267.html] Date Acessed 7/22/08 MS

We are slowly closing in on a month full with news relating to the two presidential candidates and it's time to look at the odds to win the November Elections. Far away from the 2008 Presidential Elections, many states are already "enjoying" the commercials coming from bothcamps, a sure sign of what's to come ahead. But while some grunt at the TV others are keeping a close eye - the odds makers. According to many betting experts, the current election is expected to surpass batting on any other non-sporting event, hence the bookmakers are approaching thesubject quite careful. So what's the score: At the online sportsbook BodogSports the

odds makers are still favoring Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama to win the Election with short odds -240, while his Republican rival JohnMcCain remains the underdog with odds +175, a very small movement from a month ago.

The top factors working to benefit Barack Obama's presidential odds, according to some bookmakers, were the cartoon-cover of the New Yorker and his Middle Eastern trip,which is still underway. The surge in Iraq was beneficial to John McCain, his views on offshore drilling, however, seem to be against the publicopinion. As the presidential race heats up, we are likely to see more and more fluctuation in the odds to win the 2008 Elections, stay tuned for thelatest updates.

McCain will use the plan to gain credit and move away from BushSlate Magazine 2008,

june 14(Slate Magazine, June 13, Ducking the Climate Debate, Lexis)

Lieberman-Warner is dead now-defeated by a wide margin in the vote Obama and McCain missed-but its approach to controllingglobal-warming pollution, known as "cap and trade," lives on. Both candidates support cap and trade, which would set mandatorycarbon reductions and create a market for carbon permits, making companies pay for the right to pollute.

McCain

sponsored two important early cap-and-trade bills, in 2003 and 2005

; Obama joined him as a co-sponsor of the latter. Both have reason to campaign on

the issue

because it

matters to the independentvoters whose support they need to get elected

. And

for McCain, climate change is especially good politics: Bucking his party on the issue appeals to his sense of personal drama and offers his bestevidence that he's not Just Like Bush. "I will not shirk the mantle of leadership

he vowed in aclimate speech last month in Oregon.

"I will not permit eight long years to pass without seriousaction."

Energy is the key internal link

Amy

Walters 2008,

June 4(Amy, ON THE TRAIL, The National Journal, June 4, 2008, LN)Time ToExhaleMcCain As Change Agent. He showed little remorse in throwing President Bush under the bus in hisspeech last night in New Orleans. But the issues he picked --

climate change and energy policy

--while important, are not as seminal to voters as the economy and Iraq. If Obama is going to be successfulat tying McCain to Bush, he must keep the focus on those two issues. Whenever McCain can keep Obamatalking about lobbying reform or carbon caps, and not Bush's tax cuts or the rationale for going to Iraq,it's a win for McCain. While it's true that Democrats won't easily be able to morph McCain into"McBush," it's also important to remember that McCain's "maverick-ness" isn't as well-defined amongindependents as conventional wisdom suggests. Sure, indie voters like him. But a recent Charlottesville,Va., focus group conducted by Peter Hart showed that

ndependent voters know McCain primarily for hismilitary experience, not his reputation for bucking the GOP.3

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