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Saudi_Disad - Fellows

Saudi_Disad - Fellows

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Published by: AffNeg.Com on Dec 21, 2008
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Kentucky Fellows 2008Saudi Arabia RelationsZavell and Steckler Page 1
***Saudi Relations Disad***
Terrorism ...........................................................................................................................................10Relations Solves Terrorism .......................................................................................................................................11Impact Module: Dollar Hege 1/2 ..............................................................................................................................12Impact Module: Dollar Hege 2/2 ..............................................................................................................................13Ext: Rels key to dollar hege ......................................................................................................................................14Impact Module: Peace Deal ......................................................................................................................................15Ext: Relations Key to Peace Deal .............................................................................................................................16Relations key to US presence/Regional Stability .....................................................................................................17Impact Module: China 1/2 ........................................................................................................................................18Impact Module: China 2/2 ........................................................................................................................................19Ext. Internal Link- China Fill In ...............................................................................................................................20***Links*** .............................................................................................................................................................21Link: Energy Independence .....................................................................................................................................22Link: Dependence .....................................................................................................................................................23Link: Alternative energies .........................................................................................................................................24Link: Dependency .....................................................................................................................................................25Link: Oil ....................................................................................................................................................................26***Uniqueness*** ....................................................................................................................................................27Uniqueness: Rels On Brink/China Rising .................................................................................................................28Uniqueness: Co-op Now ...........................................................................................................................................29Uniqueness: Alliance Diverging- Iraq ......................................................................................................................30***Miscellaneous*** ...............................................................................................................................................31 No Backstopping .......................................................................................................................................................32 No Backstopping .......................................................................................................................................................33Independency Snowballs ..........................................................................................................................................34Terror Good: Solves Oil Dependency ......................................................................................................................35China is Realist .........................................................................................................................................................36***Aff Answer*** ....................................................................................................................................................37Saudi Prolif Good .....................................................................................................................................................38Saudi Prolif Good .....................................................................................................................................................39 No Saudi Prolif .........................................................................................................................................................40A2: China Aggression ...............................................................................................................................................41 No Link .....................................................................................................................................................................42Relations Resilient ....................................................................................................................................................43Link Turn: US-Saudi Co-op ......................................................................................................................................44Low Prices Relations Link Turn ...............................................................................................................................45
Page 1
 
Kentucky Fellows 2008Saudi Arabia RelationsZavell and Steckler Page 2Notes:
This disad makes no sense vs affs that don’t clearly affect oil dependence. It links best vs affs that affect thetransportation sector. If you want to read it vs other affs you have to read a link between the plan and oil use…cuzthat’s all the Saudis care about.There are lots of impact scenarios—this is going to be impact turned most times by oil dependency bad..and thoseimpacts are probably on the side of truth/bigger so you have to be nuanced.
Page 2
 
Kentucky Fellows 2008Saudi Arabia RelationsZavell and Steckler Page 3
1nc: Uniqueness + Link 
A. Uniqueness: The US is the dominant purchaser of Saudi oil, but China is close behind and could pass if US demand falters.Richter June 8
, 2008
(Paul; Los Angeles Times Staff Writer; “New forces fraying U.S.-Saudi oil ties”; http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-ussaudi8-2008jun08,0,169219.story)
WASHINGTON — For decades, Saudi Arabia worked with its dominant customer, the United States, to keepworld oil markets stable and advance common political goals.
But the surging price of oil, which soared more than $10 a barrel Friday to arecord-high $138.54, has made it plain that those days are over.
 
 
 New forces, including
a weak dollar and
 
an oil-thirsty Asia, have blunted the
 
United States' leverage and helped sour the two countries' relationship. As gasoline prices have risen, the WhiteHouse has unsuccessfully exhorted the Saudis to step up production, and Congress has threatened retaliation. But
 
the situation now is a far cry from the days when the U.S. economy dominated the direction of the petroleum
 
market. "That gave us leverage," said Greg Priddy, an oil analyst at the Eurasia Group, a New York-based risk assessment firm. "There's certainly a perception that the power equation has changed."
 
The weakening of the
 
economic relationship comes when the vital U.S.-Saudi security relationship also has been fraying.
In the 1980s, the U.S.-Saudi bond that kept oil prices low was credited with helping weaken the Soviet Union during the waning days of the Cold War. And it helped keep markets stable after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait. But the Saudi government has been dismayed by the consequences of the war in Iraq and by what it sees as a weak Bush administration commitment to the Palestinians.
The relationship is shaping up as a politicalissue for the fall campaign, certainly among congressional candidates and perhaps among presidential candidates.
With a 20-million-barrel-per-day habit, the U.S. remains the world's largest oil customer, even though its daily consumption over the years has dropped from one-third of total daily production to one-fourth. But
the U.S.can no longer guarantee on its own that producers will have the markets they need for their oil. Nor can theSaudis, alone, ramp up production in sufficient amounts to stabilize prices.
China and other Asian nations now use about 17 million barrels a day. That'sup more than 20% since 2003, and booming growth is expected to continue.
 
 
With the shift in buying power, the Saudis are cultivating important
 
Chinese customers,
analysts say. Saudi Arabia recently contributed $50 million for Chinese earthquake relief, and King Abdullah has visited China.
 
"The relationship is clearly
 
developing rapidly,"
said Paul J. Saunders, who served in the State Department under President Bush and is executive director of the Nixon Center think tank. Saunders believes that
China may be buying more Saudi oil than the United States in less than a decade.
 
That sets up "a real possibility that China
 
will have more leverage in dealing with Saudi Arabia than we do ," he said. The Saudis helped the United Statesfor years as "doves" within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on the issue of oil prices. Theywere willing to moderately increase production, fearing that high prices could cause the United States and othersto seek alternate supplies or cut consumption, as happened in the 1980s in reaction to the oil price shocks of the1970s. But attitudes have been shifting. Many believe the
 
Saudis have grown more interested in conservingtheir supplies for later generations, and
 
confident that if U.S. consumption drops,the economies of 
 
China, India and others
 
will take up the slack. Page 3

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