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Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 1

Scholars Warming

Warming Master File


Index.................................................................................................................................................................1
Warming Master File........................................................................................................................................1
Warming Advantage – 1AC (1/5).....................................................................................................................4
Warming Advantage – 1AC (2/5).....................................................................................................................6
Warming Advantage – 1AC (3/5).....................................................................................................................7
Warming Advantage – 1AC (4/5).....................................................................................................................8
Warming Advantage – 1AC (5/5)...................................................................................................................10
***Advantages***..........................................................................................................................................11
1AC Crazy Weather ADV...............................................................................................................................12
1AC Sea Level ADV – (1/2)...........................................................................................................................13
1AC Environment ADV.................................................................................................................................15
1AC Starvation ADV......................................................................................................................................16
1AC Disease ADV..........................................................................................................................................17
1AC Water ADV.............................................................................................................................................18
1AC Refugees ADV.......................................................................................................................................19
1AC Plankton ADV........................................................................................................................................20
1AC Coral ADV.............................................................................................................................................21
***Warming Bad Science***.........................................................................................................................22
Warming Real Frontline – (1/2)......................................................................................................................23
Warming Real Ext. – (1/2)..............................................................................................................................25
Warming is Anthropogenic Frontline – (1/3)..................................................................................................27
Warming is Anthropogenic Ext – (1/2)...........................................................................................................30
Emissions Increasing......................................................................................................................................32
***A2: No Solve – Alt Caus/Time/US Key***.............................................................................................33
A2: Deforestation – Turn: Warming is the Cause...........................................................................................34
A2: Deforestation (1/4)...................................................................................................................................35
A2: Contrails...................................................................................................................................................39
A2: Cows........................................................................................................................................................40
A2: Sun (1/2)..................................................................................................................................................41
A2: Plants........................................................................................................................................................43
A2: Arthropods...............................................................................................................................................44
A2: “Solar Variations”....................................................................................................................................45
A2: China........................................................................................................................................................46
A2: Other Countries Key (1/6).......................................................................................................................47
Energy Key (1/2)............................................................................................................................................53
Warming Not Inevitable..................................................................................................................................55
A2: Pipeline (1/3)...........................................................................................................................................56
A2: Wavelength Saturation (1/2)....................................................................................................................59
***Warming Bad: Indict/Prodict***..............................................................................................................61
IPCC Good Frontline (1/2).............................................................................................................................62
Neg Authors Bad – Laundry List....................................................................................................................64
A2: “Singer”...................................................................................................................................................65
A2: “Balling”..................................................................................................................................................66
A2: “Seitz”......................................................................................................................................................67
A2: “Lindzen”.................................................................................................................................................68
***Warming Bad – Feedbacks***.................................................................................................................69
Positive Feedbacks – Carbon Cycle (1/2).......................................................................................................70
Positive Feedbacks - Methane........................................................................................................................72
Positive Feedbacks – Soil Carbon..................................................................................................................73
Positive Feedbacks – Soil Carbon..................................................................................................................74
Positive Feedbacks – Water Vapor/Ocean Uptake..........................................................................................75
Positive Feedbacks – More Likely.................................................................................................................76
Positive Feedbacks – o/w Negative Feedbacks..............................................................................................77
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Positive Feedbacks – Unstoppable Warming..................................................................................................78
A2: “Clouds = negative feedback”.................................................................................................................79
***Warming Bad – A2: Adaptation***..........................................................................................................80
Adaptation Insufficient...................................................................................................................................81
***Warming Bad – Impacts***.....................................................................................................................82
Warming Impacts – War (1/3).........................................................................................................................83
Warming Impacts – War – South Asia (1/4)...................................................................................................86
Warming Impacts – Econ/Leadership.............................................................................................................90
Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather (1/6).......................................................................................................91
Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather – Econ....................................................................................................97
Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather – Disease ...............................................................................................98
Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather – Coral Reefs.........................................................................................99
Warming Impacts – Natural Disasters..........................................................................................................100
Warming Impacts – Natural Disasters – Economy (Quakes).......................................................................101
Warming Impacts – Natural Disasters – Disease (Tsunamis).......................................................................102
Warming Impacts – Water Shortages (1/3)...................................................................................................103
Warming Impacts – Water Shortages – Prolif...............................................................................................107
Warming Impacts – Water Shortages – Bio-d...............................................................................................108
Warming Impacts – Biodiversity (1/3).........................................................................................................109
Warming Impacts – Plankton – A2: Pollutants Turn....................................................................................112
Warming Impacts – Plankton – A2: Resilience............................................................................................113
Warming Impacts – Plankton – A2: Marine Mammals Turn........................................................................114
Warming Impacts – Coral Reefs...................................................................................................................115
Warming Impacts – Coral Reefs – Survival Impact.....................................................................................116
Warming Impacts – Coral – A2: Calcification Turn.....................................................................................117
Warming Impacts – Floods...........................................................................................................................118
Warming Impacts – Econ .............................................................................................................................119
Warming Impacts – Disease ........................................................................................................................120
Warming Impacts – Refugees (1/5)..............................................................................................................121
Warming Impacts – Refugees – War Impact................................................................................................127
Warming Impacts – Fires (1/2).....................................................................................................................128
Warming Impacts – Fires – Nuclear Winter.................................................................................................130
Warming Impacts – Sea Level Rise (1/7).....................................................................................................131
Warming Impacts – Sea Level Rise (7/7)....................................................................................................137
Warming Impacts – Sea Level Rise Impacts – Econ/BioD..........................................................................138
Warming Impacts – Sea Level Rise Impacts – Econ....................................................................................139
Warming Impacts – Sea Level Rise Impacts – BioD....................................................................................140
Warming Impacts – Sea Level Rise Impacts – Wetlands (1/2).....................................................................141
Warming Impacts – Sea Level Rise Impacts – Hazardous Wastes...............................................................143
***Warming Good Science***....................................................................................................................144
Warming not real 1NC (1/3).........................................................................................................................145
Warming not real ext. (1/2)...........................................................................................................................148
***Warming Good – Negative Feedbacks***.............................................................................................150
Negative Feedbacks 1NC.............................................................................................................................151
Negative Feedbacks – Ag Areas...................................................................................................................152
Negative Feedbacks – Clouds.......................................................................................................................153
Negative Feedbacks – Drying Troposphere..................................................................................................154
Positive Feedback ≠ ↑ warming....................................................................................................................155
A2: “Pos feedback = runaway warming”.....................................................................................................156
A2: “Soil carbon positive feedbacks”...........................................................................................................157
***Warming Good – Indict/Prodict***........................................................................................................158
AT: Warming Bad – Authors Biased (1/2)....................................................................................................159
AT: Warming Bad – Authors Biased (2/2)....................................................................................................160
IPCC bad frontline (1/3)...............................................................................................................................161
A2: “Scientific Consensus” (1/2)..................................................................................................................164
A2: “Scientific Consensus- Oreskes”...........................................................................................................166
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Peer Reviewing Bad ....................................................................................................................................167
Singer Good..................................................................................................................................................168
Lindzen Good...............................................................................................................................................169
***Warming Good – No Solvency***.........................................................................................................170
No Solve – Alt Cause – Deforestation (1/3).................................................................................................171
No Solve – Alt Cause – Contrails (1/2)........................................................................................................174
No Solve – Alt Cause – Several Gasses........................................................................................................176
No Solve – Alt Cause – Cows.......................................................................................................................177
No Solve – Alt Cause – Sun (1/2).................................................................................................................178
No Solve – Alt Cause – Plants (1/2).............................................................................................................180
No Solve – Alt Cause – Arthropods (1/2).....................................................................................................182
No Solve – China (1/2).................................................................................................................................184
No Solve – India...........................................................................................................................................186
No Solve – Developing Nations...................................................................................................................187
No Solvency – Larger CO2 Decrease Needed ............................................................................................188
No Solve – 1990 Levels Fail........................................................................................................................189
No Solve – Price Caps Bad...........................................................................................................................190
No Solve – Aviation......................................................................................................................................191
No Solve – Pipeline......................................................................................................................................192
No Solve – Wavelength Saturation ..............................................................................................................193
No Solve – Wavelength Saturation ..............................................................................................................194
***Warming Good – A2: Aff Impacts***....................................................................................................195
AT: Warming Impacts – A2: War (1/2).........................................................................................................196
AT: Warming Impacts – A2: War (2/2).........................................................................................................197
AT: Warming Impacts – Forests (1/2)...........................................................................................................198
AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Disease............................................................................................................200
AT: Warming Impacts – Water Shortages.....................................................................................................201
AT: Warming Impacts – Natural Disasters...................................................................................................202
AT: Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather (1/3)...............................................................................................203
AT: Warming Impacts – Fires.......................................................................................................................206
AT: Warming Impacts – Sea Level Rise (1/10)............................................................................................207
AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Refugees (1/2).................................................................................................219
AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Refugees (2/2).................................................................................................220
AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Refugees – Security K (1/2)...........................................................................221
AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Biod (1/3)........................................................................................................223
AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Biod – Turn: Wetlands (1/2)...........................................................................226
AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Plankton – Turn: Pollution Good....................................................................228
AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Plankton – Turn: Marine Mammals (1/2).......................................................229
AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Plankton – No Impact.....................................................................................231
A2: Warming Impacts – A2: Coral – Turn: Calcification.............................................................................232
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Warming Advantage – 1AC (1/5)


Advantage One – Climate Change

Overwhelming scientific evidence concludes global warming is real – in particular,


the RATE of warming is rapidly increasing
Avi-Yonah and Uhlman ‘8 (Reuven S. Avi-Yonah, the Irwin I. Cohn Professor of Law and the
Director of the International Tax LLM Program at the University of Michigan Law School, and David M.
Uhlmann, the Jeffrey F. Liss Professor from Practice and the Director of the Environmental Law and Policy
Program at the University of Michigan Law School, March 18, 2008, “Combating Global Climate Change:
Why a Carbon Tax is a Better Response to Global Warming than Cap and Trade,”
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1109167, accessed June 23, 2008)
The scientific evidence that global warming is occurring is overwhelming. In its synthesis report
released in November 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) stated that
“[e]leven of the last twelve years (1995- 2006) rank among the twelve warmest years in the
instrumental record of global surface temperatures (since 1850).”5 The IPCC reported that
temperature increases have occurred throughout the world, but most significantly at higher
northern latitudes.6 The melting of Arctic ice has often been called “the canary in the coal mine”
of global warming.7 In 2007, Arctic ice melted at record levels, causing the opening of the fabled
Northwest Passage to navigation for the first time.8 During the same summer, a record 552
billion tons of ice melted from the Greenland ice sheet.9 It is hard to overstate the significance of
melting in Greenland. If global warming continues unabated, climatologists predict that the
entire Greenland ice sheet would melt, causing several meters of sea level rise and coastal
flooding that could imperil much of the Eastern United States.10 While some skeptics argue
that global warming is part of normal climate change,11 few climatologists agree. The earth
has experienced periods of cooling and warming over time, but warming has never occurred at
the rate that it is happening today. The most recent IPCC report noted that “[m]ost of the
observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to
the observed increase in anthropogenic [greenhouse gas] concentrations.”12 Anthropogenic
greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons,
perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride. Carbon dioxide is by far the most significant of the
greenhouse gases, accounting for approximately seventy-five percent of anthropogenic greenhouse
gas emissions between 1970 and 2004.13 Annual global emissions of carbon dioxide increased
“almost fivefold in the past century,” and these emissions “have tripled since 1950.”14 The most
significant contributing factor in the carbon dioxide emissions increase is the burning of fossil
fuels for electricity, heating, air conditioning, and transportation; land- use changes, particularly
deforestation, also have played a significant but smaller role.15

Multiple studies prove warming is anthropogenic – no other explanation is possible


Peter Scott 7/16/3 Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research “Attribution of temperature
changes to anthropogenic and natural causes”
http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/~mnew/teaching/Online_Articles/stott_regional_attribution_GRL_2003.pdf
An increasing body of evidence indicates that global warming that has been observed over the
course of the last century cannot be explained by natural externally forced or internal
variability [Mitchell et al., 2001]. A number of recent studies [eg., Stott et al., 2001;
Tett et al., 2002] have used optimal detection [Hasselmann, 1997], a form of
linear regression [Allen and Tett, 1999], to estimate the contributions, with their
uncertainties, of anthropogenic and natural forcings to recent temperature changes.
Optimal detection studies consistently show that anthropogenic forcings were the dominant
factor controlling global warming in the latter half of the 20th century, leading the
IPCC to conclude in the Third Assessment Report that ‘‘most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities’’. [3] Most
detection studies investigating atmospheric temperature changes have
considered global scale patterns of change. [Zwiers and Zhang, 2003] showed
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that the combined effects of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols may be detected on sub-
global scales, and showed a detectable anthropogenic influence on warming in Eurasia and
North America.
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Warming Advantage – 1AC (2/5)


Three impacts:
First is weather - Global warming increases extreme weather events to collapse the
global economy.
Brown ‘8 (Lester R., Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, p. 64)
As the climate changes, more extreme weather events are expected. Andrew Dlugolecki, a
consultant on climate change and its effects on financial institutions, notes that damage from
atmospherically related events has increased by roughly 10 percent a year. “If such an
increase were to continue indefinitely,” he notes, “by 2065 storm damage would exceed the
gross world product. The world obviously would face bankruptcy long before then.” Few
double-digit annual growth trends continue for several decades, but Dlugolecki’s basic point is that
climate change can be destructive, disruptive, and very costly.69

Economic collapse causes nuclear war and extinction.


Bearden 00 (Thomas, Lt. Col.In US Army, “The Unnecessary Energy Crisis”, 6/24, Free Republic,p. np)
Prior to the final economic collapse, the stress on nations will have increased the intensity and
number of their conflicts, to the point where the aresenals of weapons of mass destruction
(WMD) now possessed by some 25 nations are almost certain to be released. As an example,
suppose a starving North Korea launches nuclear weapons upon Japan and South Korea, including
U.S. forces there, in a spasmodic suicidal response. Or suppose a desperate China-whose long-range
nuclear missiles (some) can reach the United States-attacked Taiwan. In addition to the immediate
responses, the mutual treaties involved in such scenarios will quickly draw other nations into
the conflict, escalating it significantly. Strategic nuclear studies have shown for
decades that, under such extreme stress conditions, once a few nukes are launched,
adversaries and potential adversaries are then compelled to launch on perception of
preparations by one's adversary. The real legacy of the MAD concept is this side of the
MAD coin that is almost never discussed. Without effective defense, the only chance a nation has to
survive at all is to launch immediate full-bore pre-emptive strikes and try to take out its perceived
foes as rapidly and massively as possible. As the studies showed, rapid escalation to full WMD
exchange occurs. Today, a great percent of the WMD arsenals that will be unleashed, are already
on site within the United States itself. The resulting great Armageddon will destroy
civilization as we know it, and perhaps most of the biosphere, at least for many decades

Second is the environment - Warming leads to environmental collapse through


biodiversity loss, natural disasters, and destruction of water and food supplies.
IPCC ‘7 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”,
12/12-17, p. 26)
_ The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented
combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought, wildfire,
insects, ocean acidification) and other global change drivers (e.g. landuse change, pollution,
fragmentation of natural systems, overexploitation of resources). {WGII 4.1-4.6, SPM} _ Over the
course of this century, net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before mid-
century and then weaken or even reverse16, thus amplifying climate change. {WGII 4.ES,
Figure 4.2, SPM} _ Approximately 20 to 30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are
likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5
to 2.5°C (medium confidence). {WGII 4.ES, Figure 4.2, SPM} _ For increases in global average
temperature exceeding 1.5 to 2.5°C and in concomitant atmospheric CO2 concentrations, there are
projected to be major changes in ecosystem structure and function, species’ ecological
interactions and shifts in species’ geographical ranges, with predominantly negative
consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services, e.g. water and food supply.
{WGII 4.4, Box TS.6, SPM}
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Warming Advantage – 1AC (3/5)


Environmental collapse means human extinction.
Irish Times 02 (7/27, LN)
Such pleasure is probably the least important reason why biodiversity is a good thing: human
survival is more to the point. Conservationists insist that biodiversity is basic to the Earth's life-
support system and that the progressive loss of species - as in the current destruction of natural
forest - could help destabilise the very processes by which the planet services our presence and
wellbeing. Most ecologists, probably, go along with the idea that every species matters. Like rivets
in an aeroplane, each has its own, small importance: let too many pop and things start to fly apart.
But some are now arguing that since so many species seem to do much the same job, mere "species
richness" may not be essential: so long as "keystone species" are identified and cared for, their
ecosystems will probably still function.

Third is water – Warming causes huge water shortages.


Pauchari 07 (R.K., IPCC chairman, “Acceptance Speech for the Nobel Peace Prize Awarded to the
[IPCC]”, 12/10, p. 5-6, http://www.ipcc.ch/)
Climate change is expected to exacerbate current stresses on water resources. On a regional
scale,
mountain snowpack, glaciers, and small ice caps play a crucial role in fresh water availability.
Widespread mass losses from glaciers and reductions in snow cover over recent decades are
projected to accelerate throughout the 21st century, reducing water availability, hydropower
potential, and the changing seasonality of flows in regions supplied by meltwater from major
mountain ranges (e.g. Hindu-Kush, Himalaya, Andes), where more than one-sixth of the world’s
population currently lives. There is also high confidence that many semi-arid areas (e.g. the
Mediterranean Basin, western United States, southern Africa, and northeastern Brazil) will suffer a
decrease in water resources due to climate change. In Africa by 2020, between 75 and 250
million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change.

Water scarcity will cause World War 3.


Stonehill 6/19 (Alex, co-founder of Common Language Project for humane international journalism, Z
Magazine, “World Water Crisis”, 08,
http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:ezAcQF4xJZMJ:www.globalpolicy.org/security/natres/water/2008/0
619ethiopconflict.htm+water+scarcity+world+war+3&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=13&gl=us)
Water is the new oil. While western politicians and consumers fret over the declining economy
and increasing oil prices, the news from East Africa is that with a growing majority of the
world living on less than a dollar a day, the liquid that fuels bodies is becoming even more
contentious than the liquid that fuels cars. I've spent the last four months reporting stories about
water from Ethiopia and Kenya, two countries at the forefront of the world's coming water crisis.
The director of a local water NGO told me a few days after I arrived in Ethiopia in January 2008,
"As you may know, Alex, the coming World War III will be fought over water, not oil."
Variations on that refrain were echoed by aid workers and researchers across the region over the
next several months. Women walk for miles each day to collect drinking water; farmers are
pushed into deadly conflict by dwindling river flows, and city water supplies are drained by
overzealous irrigation. The bigger picture that the smaller stories hint at is one of ecological
disaster and conflict over resources that will affect millions and have repercussions around the
world.
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Warming Advantage – 1AC (4/5)


( ) Cap-and-trade programs effectively regulate CO2 and prevent climate change
Albert N. Stavins, Professor of Business and Government at Harvard and Director of the Harvard
Environmental Economics Program, October 2007, “A U.S. Cap and Trade System to Address Global
Climate Change,” online:
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2007/10climate_stavins/10_climate_stavins.pdf,
accessed June 20, 2008
The first criterion any proposed climate policy must meet is environmental effectiveness: Can
the proposed instrument achieve its intended targets? This will depend, in the case of a standards-
based approach, on the technical ability of policymakers to design and the administrative ability
of governments to implement standards that are sufficiently diverse to address all of the
sources of CO2 emissions in a modern economy. In the case of a tax, it will depend on the ability
of political systems to impose taxes that are sufficiently high to achieve meaningful emissions
reductions (or limits on global greenhouse gas concentrations, or limits on temperature changes).
The evaluation must also consider how certain it is that the proposed policy will achieve its
emissions or other targets. Different policy designs may be expected to achieve identical targets, but
with different degrees of certainty. A cap-and-trade system can achieve emissions targets with
high certainty because guaranteed emissions levels are built into the policy. With a carbon tax
or technology standards, on the other hand, actual emissions are difficult to predict because of
current and future uncertainty about future energy prices or how quickly new technologies will be
adopted. Such policies may aim to achieve particular emissions targets, but actual emissions may
either exceed or fall below those targets, depending on factors beyond policymakers’ control.
Moreover, the tendency for exemptions to be granted from taxes and standards so as to address
distributional issues weakens the environmental effectiveness of these instruments (Ellerman 2007).
By contrast, distributional battles over the allowance allocation in a cap-and-trade system
neither raise the total cost of the program nor affect its climate impacts.

( ) In particular, upstream emissions trading is essential to solve warming


Tim Hargrave, Senior Policy Analyst at the Center for Clean Air Policy, March 1998, “US Carbon
Emissions Trading: Description of an Upstream Approach,” online: http://www.ccap.org/pdf/upstpub.pdf,
accessed June 20, 2008
An upstream system as described here would capture virtually all fossil fuel use and carbon
emissions in the US economy. The only emissions not covered would come from fossil energy used
in fuel extraction; natural gas that went directly from the point of production to the end user and
thus escaped the regulatory system; and unsustainable biomass use. In contrast, a downstream
system would likely cover no more than one-half of total emissions. While requiring allowances
and measuring the emissions of electricity generation units and large industrial establishments
would be relatively simple, the same would not be true for small sources such as automobiles,
households and small industry. There are approximately 380,000 industrial establishments in the
US, millions of commercial buildings and hundreds of millions of homes and automobiles. A
downstream system that included no more than electric utilities and other large major stationary
sources would cover less than one-half of total US carbon emissions.5
There are numerous significant problems associated with low coverage of total potential
emissions. First, the burden of making all emissions reductions needed to meet the cap would
fall solely on sources captured within the system, leaving activities outside of the system
untouched. This would be unfair to the sources included in the system and would drive up the total
cost to the country of complying with a target, because many low-cost reduction options would
fall outside of the regulatory system and therefore not be taken. Second, low coverage of emissions
could undermine the achievement of the environmental goal of meeting the national emissions
target. Because they would not be required to obtain allowances, sources not captured in the
system could gain a competitive advantage over those that were included. Thus, carbon dioxide
emissions to some extent might simply shift to sources outside the system, rather than being
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reduced. In this situation, covered sources taken as a whole would meet their targets but
overall US emissions would be above target levels.
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Warming Advantage – 1AC (5/5)


( ) Command and control regulations are inevitable as climate change spins out of
control – implementing cap-and-trade now saves the economy and prevents
catastrophic climate change
Gary C. Bryner, Research Associate, Natural Resources Law Center, University of Colorado School of
Law, and Professor, Public Policy Program, Brigham Young University, Summer 2004, Tulane
Environmental Law Journal, 17 Tul. Envtl. L.J. 267, p. 299
Finally, carbon trading programs can produce valuable experience about how market-based
systems can work to find the most cost-effective ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and
help secure a stable climate. Beyond the benefits that accrue to more efficient operations,
voluntary carbon trading programs can produce experience that can guide policy makers in
designing future regulatory programs. Companies that established voluntary greenhouse gas
reduction programs have found that establishing that goal has provided an additional incentive to
identify and invest in improved efficiency and waste reduction. In many cases, emission reductions
goals have been achieved while also reducing costs. In one sense, such voluntary programs
have clearly been shown to work. However, unless every company adopts emission reduction
goals very soon, we will not likely be able to achieve the emission reductions that scientists
suggest are critical to reduce the threat of catastrophic climate change to a manageable level.
Mandatory programs are inevitable, but voluntary programs can help generate support for
the development of a regulatory program that, if well designed, will harness emissions trading
to achieve the kind of emission reductions required to stabilize the climate, and produce
valuable experience for designing such a program.
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***Advantages***
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1AC Crazy Weather ADV


Global warming increases extreme weather events to collapse the global economy.
Brown 08 (Lester R., Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, p. 64)
As the climate changes, more extreme weather events are expected. Andrew Dlugolecki, a
consultant on climate change and its effects on financial institutions, notes that damage from
atmospherically related events has increased by roughly 10 percent a year. “If such an
increase were to continue indefinitely,” he notes, “by 2065 storm damage would exceed the
gross world product. The world obviously would face bankruptcy long before then.” Few
double-digit annual growth trends continue for several decades, but Dlugolecki’s basic point is that
climate change can be destructive, disruptive, and very costly.69

Economic collapse causes nuclear war and extinction.


Bearden 00 (Thomas, Lt. Col.In US Army, “The Unnecessary Energy Crisis”, 6/24, Free Republic,p. np)
Prior to the final economic collapse, the stress on nations will have increased the intensity and
number of their conflicts, to the point where the aresenals of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) now
possessed by some 25 nations are almost certain to be released. As an example, suppose a starving North
Korea launches nuclear weapons upon Japan and South Korea, including U.S. forces there, in a spasmodic
suicidal response. Or suppose a desperate China-whose long-range nuclear missiles (some) can reach the
United States-attacked Taiwan. In addition to the immediate responses, the mutual treaties involved in
such scenarios will quickly draw other nations into the conflict, escalating it significantly. Strategic
nuclear studies have shown for decades that, under such extreme stress conditions,
once a few nukes are launched, adversaries and potential adversaries are then compelled to launch
on perception of preparations by one's adversary. The real legacy of the MAD concept is this side
of the MAD coin that is almost never discussed. Without effective defense, the only chance a nation has to
survive at all is to launch immediate full-bore pre-emptive strikes and try to take out its perceived foes as
rapidly and massively as possible. As the studies showed, rapid escalation to full WMD exchange occurs.
Today, a great percent of the WMD arsenals that will be unleashed, are already on site within the
United States itself. The resulting great Armageddon will destroy civilization as we know it, and
perhaps most of the biosphere, at least for many decades
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1AC Sea Level ADV – (1/2)


Warming is causing unprecedented increases in sea level.
Gornitz 07 (Dr. Vivien, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies scientist, “Sea Level Rise, After the Ice Melted and
Today”, Jan., http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_09/)
Twentieth century sea level trends, however, are substantially higher that those of the last few
thousand years. The current phase of accelerated sea level rise appears to have begun in the mid/late 19th century to
early 20th century, based on coastal sediments from a number of localities. Twentieth century global sea level, as determined
from tide gauges in coastal harbors, has been increasing by 1.7-1.8 mm/yr, apparently related to the recent climatic warming
trend. Most of this rise comes from warming of the world's oceans and melting of mountain
glaciers, which have receded dramatically in many places especially during the last few
decades. Since 1993, an even higher sea level trend of about 2.8 mm/yr has been measured
from the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter. Analysis of longer tide-gauge records (1870-
2004) also suggests a possible late 20th century acceleration in global sea level. Recent
observations of Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet raise concerns for the future.
Satellites detect a thinning of parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet at lower elevations, and glaciers
are disgorging ice into the ocean more rapidly, adding 0.23 to 0.57 mm/yr to the sea within the last decade.
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is also showing some signs of thinning. Either ice sheet, if melted completely,
contains enough ice to raise sea level by 5-7 m. A global temperature rise of 2-5°C might
destabilize Greenland irreversibly. Such a temperature rise lies within the range of several
future climate projections for the 21st century. However, any significant meltdown would take many
centuries. Furthermore, even with possible future accelerated discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, it highly unlikely
that annual rates of sea level rise would exceed those of the major post-glacial meltwater pulses.

Sea level rise kills biodiversity by destroying wetlands, changing water salinity, and
increasing hazardous waste leakage.
Titus 84 (James G., EPA, Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge for This Generation, “An Overview of the Causes
and Effects of Sea Level Rise”, p. 1,
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/GlobalWarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsRisk_of_rise.html)
Like the physical effects, the environmental impacts of sea level rise fall into the categories of shoreline
retreat, salt intrusion, and increased flooding. Perhaps the most serious environmental consequence
would be the inundation and erosion of thousands of square miles of marshes and other wetlands. Wetlands (areas
that are flooded by tides at least once every 15 days) are critical to the reproductive cycles of many marine species. Because
marsh vegetation can collect sediment and build upon itself, marshes can "grow" with small rises in sea level. But for faster rates of sea level
rise, the vegetation will drown. Its resulting deterioration may significantly erode land previously
held together only by the marsh vegetation. Relative sea level rise of one meter per century is eroding
over one hundred square kilometers (about fifty square miles) per year of marshland in Louisiana.
Salt intrusion is a threat to marine animals as well as vegetation. Many species must swim into
fresher water during reproduction. In response to sea level rise, fish might swim farther upstream, but water
pollution could prevent such an adaptation from succeeding. Some species, on the other hand, require salty water, such as
the oyster drill and other predators of oysters. Consequently, salinity increases have been cited for the long-term drop in
oyster production in the Delaware Bay (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1979; Haskin and Tweed, 1976), as well as recent drops in
the Chesapeake Bay. Salt intrusion could also be a serious problem for the Everglades. Flooding could have
a particularly important impact on environmental protection activities. As Chapter 9 indicates, regulations for
hazardous waste sites promulgated under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act currently impose special requirements for sites in 100-year flood
zones. Another EPA program, Superfund, has responsibility for abandoned waste sites, some of which are in low-
lying areas such as Louisiana and Florida that could be inundated. There are over one thousand
active hazardous waste facilities in the United States located in 100-year floodplains (Development Planning
and Research Associates, 1982) and perhaps as many inactive sites. Sea level rise could increase the risk of flooding in these
hazardous waste sites. For example, if a hazardousSea Level Rise: Overview of Causes and Effects waste facility is subjected
to overwash by strong waves or simply to flooding that weakens the facility's cap, the wastes can be spread to nearby
areas, thus exposing the population to possibly contaminated surface water. Moreover, by intruding
into clay soils (which are often used as liners for hazardous waste disposal) saltwater can increase leaching of wastes.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 14
Scholars Warming

1AC Sea Level ADV – (2/2)


Biodiversity loss risks human extinction.
Diner ’94 (David, JD Ohio State, Military Law Review, Winter, l/n)
4. Biological Diversity. -- The main premise of species preservation is better than simplicity. As the
current mass extinction has progressed, the world's biological diversity generally has
decreased. This trend occurs within ecosystems by reducing the number of species, and within
species by reducing the number of individuals. Both trends carry serious future implications.
Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized by a large number of specialist species,
filling narrow ecological niches. These ecosystems inherently are more stable than less diverse
systems. "The more complex the ecosystem, the more successfully it can resist stress... [l]ike a net,
in which each knot is connected to others by several strands, such a fabric can resist collapse better
than a simple, unbranched circle of threads -- which is cut anywhere breaks down as a whole." By
causing widespread extinctions, humans have artificially simplified many ecosystems. As
biologic simplicity increases, so does the risk of ecosystem failure. The spreading Sahara Desert
in Africa, and the dustbowl conditions of the 1930s in the United States are relatively mild examples
of what might be expected if this trend continues. Theoretically, each new animal or plant
extinction, with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects, could cause total ecosystem
collapse and human extinction. Each new extinction increases the risk of disaster. Like a
mechanic removing, one by one, the rivets from an aircraft's wing, mankind may be edging
closer to the abyss.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 15
Scholars Warming

1AC Environment ADV


Warming leads to environmental collapse through biodiversity loss, natural
disasters, and destruction of water and food supplies.
IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007:
Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p. 26)
_ The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented
combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought, wildfire, insects,
ocean acidification) and other global change drivers (e.g. landuse change, pollution, fragmentation of
natural systems, overexploitation of resources). {WGII 4.1-4.6, SPM} _ Over the course of this century,
net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before mid-century and then weaken or
even reverse16, thus amplifying climate change. {WGII 4.ES, Figure 4.2, SPM} _ Approximately 20 to
30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if
increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5°C (medium confidence). {WGII 4.ES, Figure
4.2, SPM} _ For increases in global average temperature exceeding 1.5 to 2.5°C and in concomitant
atmospheric CO2 concentrations, there are projected to be major changes in ecosystem structure and
function, species’ ecological interactions and shifts in species’ geographical ranges, with
predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services, e.g. water
and food supply. {WGII 4.4, Box TS.6, SPM}

Environmental collapse means human extinction.


Irish Times 02 (7/27, LN)
Such pleasure is probably the least important reason why biodiversity is a good thing: human survival is
more to the point. Conservationists insist that biodiversity is basic to the Earth's life-support system
and that the progressive loss of species - as in the current destruction of natural forest - could help
destabilise the very processes by which the planet services our presence and wellbeing. Most
ecologists, probably, go along with the idea that every species matters. Like rivets in an aeroplane, each has
its own, small importance: let too many pop and things start to fly apart. But some are now arguing that
since so many species seem to do much the same job, mere "species richness" may not be essential: so long
as "keystone species" are identified and cared for, their ecosystems will probably still function.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 16
Scholars Warming

1AC Starvation ADV


Warming decreases global food production, causing widespread starvation.
IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007:
Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p. 26)
At lower latitudes, especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is
projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1 to 2°C), which would
increase the risk of hunger (medium confidence). {WGII 5.4, SPM} _ Globally, the potential for
food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a
range of 1 to 3°C, but above this it is projected to decrease (medium confidence). {WGII 5.4,
5.5, SPM}

Insufficient production causes world resource wars and famine.


WILLIAM H. CALVIN, prof @ University of Washington [Atlantic Monthy] 98
The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. Plummeting crop yields would cause
some powerful countries to try to take over their neighbors or distant lands-if only because
their armies, unpaid and lacking food, would go marauding, both at home and across the
borders. The better-organized countries would attempt to use their armies, before they fell
apart entirely, to take over countries with significant remaining resources, driving out or starving
their inhabitants if not using modern weapons to accomplish the same end: eliminating competitors
for the remaining food. This would be a worldwide problem-and could lead to a Third World
War-but Europe's vulnerability is particularly easy to analyze. The last abrupt cooling, the Younger
Dryas, drastically altered Europe's climate as far east as Ukraine. Present-day Europe has more than
650 million people. It has excellent soils, and largely grows its own food. It could no longer do so if
it lost the extra warming from the North Atlantic. There is another part of the world with the same
good soil, within the same latitudinal band, which we can use for a quick comparison. Canada lacks
Europe's winter warmth and rainfall, because it has no equivalent of the North Atlantic Current to
preheat its eastbound weather systems. Canada's agriculture supports about 28 million people. If
Europe had weather like Canada's, it could feed only one out of twenty-three present-day
Europeans. Any abrupt switch in climate would also disrupt foodsupply routes. The only
reason that two percent of our population can feed the other 98 percent is that we have a well-
developed system of transportation and middlemenbut it is not very robust. The system allows
for large urban populations in the best of times, but not in the case of widespread disruptions.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 17
Scholars Warming

1AC Disease ADV


Warming will strain the health care industry while increasing infectious disease
spread.
IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”,
12/12-17, p. 26)
The health status of millions of people is projected to be affected through, for example,
increases in malnutrition; increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme weather
events; increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases; increased frequency of cardio-respiratory
diseases due to higher concentrations of ground-level ozone in urban areas related to climate
change; and the altered spatial distribution of some infectious diseases. {WGI 7.4, Box 7.4;
WGII 8.ES, 8.2, 8.4, SPM} Climate change is projected to bring some benefits in
temperate areas, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure, and some mixed effects
such as changes in range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. Overall it is
expected that benefits will be outweighed by the negative health effects of rising temperatures,
especially in developing countries. {WGII 8.4, 8.7, 8ES, SPM}

Global disease spread culminates in human extinction.


Dutta-Roy 07 (Debajyoti, software technician and general badass, “The Coming Pandemic and the
Threat of Human Extinction”, 5/31, http://globalstudy.blogspot.com/2007/05/coming-pandemic-threat-of-
human.html)
As we are relying more and more on antibiotics, modern medical marvels, IMHO…we
humans, the hairless apes who are now dominating this Blue Planet….are living on an “artificial
life support system”. This might sound shocking to you, but many experts agree this is the
TRUTH. Look around us……observe closely those “inferior” creatures who are around us –
starting from the domesticated animals to the creatures of the wild. Let’s say, bird flu or a
dangerous strain of the ebola virus hits us. WHO DO YOU THINK HAS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SURVIVING? The so-called “inferior” animals, through millions of years,
developed a robust immune system…..they have been through hundreds of such bacterial &
viral outbreaks…..the weakest have died in the beginning….much the stronger ones have
survived. Now, they are much equipped to fight off a pandemic like the Bird Flu. Sure, millions
would die. But the majority will survive. But, I don’t think humans have much chance. Man of
today, though much advanced in his “cranial capacity” is, from a biological point of view, a much
poorer specimen than the Man of, say, 10,000 years back.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 18
Scholars Warming

1AC Water ADV


Warming causes huge water shortages.
Pauchari 07 (R.K., IPCC chairman, “Acceptance Speech for the Nobel Peace Prize Awarded to the
[IPCC]”, 12/10, p. 5-6, http://www.ipcc.ch/)
Climate change is expected to exacerbate current stresses on water resources. On a regional scale,
mountain snowpack, glaciers, and small ice caps play a crucial role in fresh water availability.
Widespread mass losses from glaciers and reductions in snow cover over recent decades are
projected to accelerate throughout the 21st century, reducing water availability, hydropower
potential, and the changing seasonality of flows in regions supplied by meltwater from major
mountain ranges (e.g. Hindu-Kush, Himalaya, Andes), where more than one-sixth of the world’s
population currently lives. There is also high confidence that many semi-arid areas (e.g. the
Mediterranean Basin, western United States, southern Africa, and northeastern Brazil) will suffer a
decrease in water resources due to climate change. In Africa by 2020, between 75 and 250
million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change.

Water scarcity will cause World War 3.


Stonehill 6/19 (Alex, co-founder of Common Language Project for humane international journalism, Z
Magazine, “World Water Crisis”, 08,
http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:ezAcQF4xJZMJ:www.globalpolicy.org/security/natres/water/2008/0
619ethiopconflict.htm+water+scarcity+world+war+3&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=13&gl=us)
Water is the new oil. While western politicians and consumers fret over the declining economy
and increasing oil prices, the news from East Africa is that with a growing majority of the
world living on less than a dollar a day, the liquid that fuels bodies is becoming even more
contentious than the liquid that fuels cars. I've spent the last four months reporting stories about
water from Ethiopia and Kenya, two countries at the forefront of the world's coming water crisis.
The director of a local water NGO told me a few days after I arrived in Ethiopia in January 2008,
"As you may know, Alex, the coming World War III will be fought over water, not oil."
Variations on that refrain were echoed by aid workers and researchers across the region over the
next several months. Women walk for miles each day to collect drinking water; farmers are
pushed into deadly conflict by dwindling river flows, and city water supplies are drained by
overzealous irrigation. The bigger picture that the smaller stories hint at is one of ecological
disaster and conflict over resources that will affect millions and have repercussions around the
world.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 19
Scholars Warming

1AC Refugees ADV


Warming creates “climate refugees” in areas that produce few GHGs; allowing this
injustice is the moral equivalent of genocide.
Global warming is causing a rise in sea levels, and according to the IPCC (International Panel on
Climate Change), sea levels rose between 9 and 20 cm over the last century. As reported by BBC News,
scientists predict further increases of 9 to 88 cm by the year 2100. For some of us, this may seem like a
minimal height change over a hundred year period, but for coastal regions, this rise could mean the
difference between having a home and watching your home flooded with water and washed out to
sea. Take for example, the South Asian country of Bangladesh, which is situated in the low-lying Ganges
River delta. It happens to be one of the most densely populated countries on Earth and is also one of
the most flood-prone. The country’s landscape is already known to come and go with the coastal tides and
change in seasons, and the flat landscape of the country contributes to its flooding from rivers. The BBC
predicts that the rise in sea levels will leave “a fifth of Bangladesh under water”, and that salt
absorbed in the ground water could render fields up to 40km from the coastline useless for growing
crops. With the destruction of coastal homes countrywide and lack of usable land inland, these residents
will be forced to migrate. And in a country that is already so densely populated, one can imagine that
a move on this scale will not be welcomed. What’s sucks for Bangladesh is the fact that they’re a country
that makes little contribution to the pollution responsible for global warming. Most of the coastal
villages still have no electricity and no vehicles. Dr. Atik Rahman of the Bangladesh Center for Advanced
Studies stated the Bagladesh crisis best. “No contribution, highest impact - that makes a huge case of
moral inequality against which the global citizenry, the global nation states, must take action, If not
we’ll be calling it climatic genocide. That’s where we’re heading.” If efforts are not made now, countries like Bangladesh
will find coastal regions destroyed and their people homeless. Bangladesh is only one of the many places that will be affected. On a
larger scale, millions of people worldwide will be forced to migrate. With populations at an all time high globally, one can not help but
wonder where these “climate refugees” will go and how this influx of people will affect neighboring nations and international
relations.

We have a moral obligation to stop this atrocity.


The Hill 6/17 (“Our Moral Obligation to Adress the Refugees’ Plight”, 08, http://thehill.com/op-eds/our-
moral-obligation-to-address-refugees-plight-2008-06-17.html)
World Refugee Day, when we turn our attention to the men, women and children who have fled from their homes because of
war, persecution and oppression. Roughly 35 million people worldwide have been displaced from their
homes, including 14 million who are living as refugees outside their country. The size of this
humanitarian crisis is difficult to grasp as a bare statistic. A little more than a month ago I had the honor of hosting a
photography exhibit on Capitol Hill by a photographer who had captured the images and stories of Iraqi refugees during her
time spent in Syria and Jordan. Standing in front of one of her photographs — this one of a young Iraqi refugee child who
had been severely burned during an attack on her home — the photographer stated “a million refugees is a statistic … but a
single refugee is a tragedy.” The point that the photographer was making, and the point of bringing the exhibit to Capitol Hill,
was that we cannot forget that refugees are real people: mothers, fathers, children, brothers and
sisters — millions of real people living as refugees across the globe. The worst humanitarian
crisis in the world currently is taking place in Sudan. Genocide is being committed right now in the
Darfur region of Sudan. More than 400,000 Sudanese have been murdered or starved by Sudanese government forces and
their allies since 2003. An estimated 2.5 million people have been displaced to camps inside the country, and another 240,000
have fled into neighboring Chad as refugees. As the conflict has spilled over the border into Chad and the Central African
Republic, yet another 200,000 people have been displaced. I believe that we — Americans and indeed the people
of all nations — have a moral obligation to prevent such suffering and assist those in desperate
circumstances. If we are truly serious about opposing genocide in Darfur, then we must take
decisive action to stop it. We must stop supporting the genocidal government of Sudan, and we must enact and enforce
comprehensive sanctions against them without exceptions. We must demand that China stop bankrolling the genocide, and
we must demand that United Nations forces do everything necessary to protect civilians and save the people of Darfur.
That’s the only way to begin to solve the problem of refugees and displaced people in this part
of the world.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 20
Scholars Warming

1AC Plankton ADV


Climate change kills plankton
Catherine Brahic 2006 (December, http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn10743-warming-oceans-produce-
less-phytoplankton.html, Accessed 6/29/08)
As the Earth’s oceans warm, the masses of tiny plants growing at their surface is declining, say
US researchers. Their results show that the productivity of global oceans is tightly linked to
climate change and has steadily decreased between 1999 and 2004.
The team was led by Michael Behrenfeld, at Oregon State University, US, and used a sensor on NASA’s SeaWiFS satellite to measure different
shades of green in the ocean (watch an animation of the satellite at work, mpeg file). This allowed them to watch how chlorophyll in the oceans
ebbed and flowed over the past 10 years. They looked at how these changes fitted changes in ocean temperatures and the predictions of
computer models.
Their research, published in Nature, revealed two phases. Between 1997 and 1998, the amount
of phytoplankton in the seas rose. At this time, the oceans were cooling after the strongest ever
El Niño, which had warmed ocean temperatures.
From 1999 to 2004, there was a general warming of the oceans and, the images from space
revealed, a persistent decrease in phytoplankton. In some regions, the drops in ocean
productivity were often over 30%. Globally, the reductions meant that, between 1999 and 2004,
about 190 million tonnes of carbon per year were not absorbed by the tiny plants and
converted into organic matter. After 2004, there was a small upturn in productivity (see Cooling
oceans buck global trend).

Plankton is critical to human survival.


Julian Cribb 2006 (September 16, http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20398844-5003900,00.html, Accessed 6/29/08)
THEY are the most numerous and least considered beings on the planet, yet humanity cannot
survive without them. Invisibly, they form the air we breathe and serve as the fount of life in
oceans, rivers and lakes. Plankton have existed for 3.5 billion years, quietly making our planet
habitable for people, plants and animals. These minute architects are the true builders and
shapers of Earth's beauty and diversity.
Yet individuals are palaces as elegant as Versailles itself: filigreed, roseate, fluted, crenellated, striated, stellate, spinose, perforated, multifoliate, ornamented more
wildly and beautifully than a human mind could conceive. And like many beautiful things, some are deadly, either as the producers of lethal nerve poisons or as the raw
material used in explosives.
In Plankton: a Critical Creation, University of Tasmania marine biologist Gustaaf Hallegraeff has brought the microscopic world of these creatures into vivid focus
with a breathtaking selection of electron microscope images. These are accompanied by a fascinating, and gently reproachful, essay on the wonders of the planktonic
universe.
It is the privilege of science to reveal the world we thought we knew in startling and unexpected ways, causing us to view it differently thereafter. Hallegraeff has done
just this here, introducing us to creatures as exquisite as any sculpture and as fit for purpose as any instrument. It is a voyage through the Earth's inner space, depicting
organisms as small as a few millionths of a millimetre and their elaborate structures. These range from the "familiar" blue-green algae, microscopic filaments often
toxic, to the vanished fossils of millions of years ago that built the White Cliffs of Dover and, indeed, much of the world's sedimentary rocks and soils.
He explores plankton with skeletons of calcium and silica in wild and alien or eerily familiar forms. Here is one that resembles the leaning Tower of Pisa, down to the
very columns. Here, others like a radiant star, a sunburst, a vol-au-vent, a Catherine wheel, a flower, a host of trumpets, a loufa ... It all raises the question: does the
shape of man-made devices hark back to some ancestral patterning perfected and implanted a billion years ago?
Plankton are certainly providing inspiration for modern architects and, increasingly, the question of how they grow these elaborate and robust structures is being
explored by nanotechnologists, eager to unlock their biochemical secrets in order to revolutionise the way we makethings.
Besides their role in producing oxygen, processing CO2, absorbing nutrients and
underpinning the global food chain, these microscopic plants serve in other ways: their mildly
abrasive skeletons are used in toothpaste, to make concrete and filter swimming pools.
Perhaps most importantly, they help to regulate the Earth's climate, producing the chemicals
that allow clouds to form. Of great concern, says Hallegraeff, is the thought that if the gradual
acidification of the oceans by human production of CO2 destroys these creatures, the results
could be catastrophic both for the climate and the global food web. At present, it is thought
plankton absorb half the world's CO2 from theatmosphere.
Hallegraeff traces his own journey of fascination with this microscopic world from his childhood in The Netherlands, growing up a few
kilometres from where Anton van Leeuwenhoek invented the microscope in 1673 and revealed the invisible world that engulfs us. Gazing at
the whirling green creatures in a drop of pond water, the young Hallegraeff was hooked for life, pursuing his studies into the largely unexplored
biological realm of Australia and the southern seas. Here most people's awareness was restricted to periodic panics about algal blooms in
drinking water, toxic red tides and the risks of paralytic shellfish poisoning or ciguatera. He decided to redress the balance, revealing planktonic
life in all its diversity, wonder and beneficial -- as well as risky -- aspects.
"In the past 30 years," he writes, "scientific appreciation of the global importance of single-
celled microscopic plants and animals has escalated. It is now obvious that most of the action
on our planet is in the plankton.
"Life originated in the primeval fluid of the plankton world. The microbial engine of the
plankton plays a key role in our planet's ability to adapt to climate change. It is perilous to our
own survival to ignore this critical creation."
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 21
Scholars Warming

1AC Coral ADV


Warming devastates coral reefs by increasing sea temperatures and hurricane
activity.

The Guardian 1/24 (“Hurricanes and global warming devastate Caribbean coral reefs”, 08,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jan/24/climatechange)

Warmer seas and a record hurricane season in 2005 have devastated more than half of the
coral reefs in the Caribbean, according to scientists. In a report published yesterday, the World
Conservation Union (IUCN) warned that this severe damage to reefs would probably become a
regular event given current predictions of rising global temperatures due to climate change.
According to the report, 2005 was the hottest year on average since records began and had the
most hurricanes ever recorded in a season. Large hotspots in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico
powered strong tropical hurricanes such as Katrina, which developed into the most devastating
storm ever to hit the US. In addition to the well-documented human cost, the storms damaged
coral by increasing the physical strength of waves and covering the coast in muddy run-off
water from the land. The higher sea temperature also caused bleaching, in which the coral lose
the symbiotic algae they need to survive. The reefs then lose their colour and become more
susceptible to death from starvation or disease.

Coral reefs are critical to human survival.

McMichael 03 (Anthony J, National Centre of Epidemiology and Population Health Director, Climate
Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses, p. 254,
http://books.google.com/books?id=tQFYJjDEwhIC&pg=PA254&lpg=PA254&dq=coral+reefs+critical+hu
man+survival&source=web&ots=PpvyXNZ_Ve&sig=HuTi0RaOUUfhEhs1_zYoDQhJFz0&hl=en&sa=X&
oi=book_result&resnum=4&ct=result#PPP1,M1)

Coral reefs are one of the most threatened global ecosystems and also one of the most vital.
They offer critical support to human survival, especially in developing countries, serving as
barriers for coastal protection; major tourist attractions; and especially as a productive source of
food for a large portion of the population (39, 40). Coral reefs supply a wide variety of valuable
fisheries, including both fish and invertebrate species (41). Some fisheries are harvested for food,
others are collected for the curio and aquarium trades.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 22
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***Warming Bad Science***


Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 23
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Warming Real Frontline – (1/2)


( ) There is a scientific consensus that anthropogenic global warming is occurring

Naomi Oreskes 12/3/4 “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change”


http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686

Policy-makers and the media, particularly in the United States, frequently assert that climate
science is highly uncertain. Some have used this as an argument against adopting strong measures
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For example, while discussing a major U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency report on the risks of climate change, then-EPA administrator Christine Whitman
argued, "As [the report] went through review, there was less consensus on the science and
conclusions on climate change" (1). Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected
by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science (2).
Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific
community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This is not the case. The
scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations
Environmental Programme, IPCC's purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis
for informed policy action, primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific
literature (3). In its most recent assessment, IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of
scientific opinion is that Earth's climate is being affected by human activities: "Human
activities ... are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents ... that absorb or scatter
radiant energy. ... [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been
due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" [p. 21 in (4)].IPCC is not alone in its
conclusions. In recent years, all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members'
expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements. For example, the National
Academy of Sciences report, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, begins:
"Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing
surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise" [p. 1 in (5)]. The report
explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking,
and answers yes: "The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is
likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the
current thinking of the scientific community on this issue" [p. 3 in (5)].
Others agree. The American Meteorological Society (6), the American Geophysical Union (7),
and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued
statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is
compelling (8). The drafting of such reports and statements involves many opportunities for comment, criticism, and
revision, and it is not likely that they would diverge greatly from the opinions of the societies' members. Nevertheless, they
might downplay legitimate dissenting opinions. That hypothesis was tested by analyzing 928 abstracts, published in refereed
scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and listed in the ISI database with the keywords "climate change" (9). The 928
papers were divided into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation
proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first
three categories, either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking
no position on current anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the
consensus position. Admittedly, authors evaluating impacts, developing methods, or studying paleoclimatic change
might believe that current climate change is natural. However, none of these papers argued that point. This analysis shows
that scientists publishing in the peer-reviewed literature agree with IPCC, the National Academy of Sciences, and the public
statements of their professional societies. Politicians, economists, journalists, and others may have the impression of
confusion, disagreement, or discord among climate scientists, but that impression is incorrect.
The question of what to do about climate change is also still open. But there is a scientific
consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change. Climate scientists have repeatedly
tried to make this clear. It is time for the rest of us to listen.
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Warming Real Frontline – (2/2)


( ) New satellite technology has led to undeniable evidence of warming

Menglin Jin1 and Robert E. Dickinson 5/23/2 “New observational evidence for global warming from
satellite” http://climate.eas.gatech.edu/dickinson/publications/jin-grl2002-warming.pdf

We have developed procedures for removing the effects of changing satellite orbits and cloud
contamination from skin temperatures estimated from AVHRR channels 4 and 5, and so provide
a first estimate of the trends of land surface skin temperature over the last two decades. The
estimated land temperature increase is not only much greater than that for the atmosphere
but also apparently somewhat larger than the estimates of surface air temperature increase
from in situ measurement. Data from the AVHRR satellite indicate that the temperature of land
surface has warmed substantially in most regions over the last two decades and globally at a
rate of about 0.43 ± 0.2_C per decade, consistent with the increase of global land air
temperature but apparently somewhat larger. The data set providing the diurnal cycle of land temperature
also gives a decrease in the diurnal range of 0.16 ± 0.05_C per decade. The skin temperature climatology estimated from the
data show considerable spatial and temporal structures. Some of these structures are known to be real as established by
correlation with the SAT change [Jin et al., 1997], and some either result from changes in the land temperature difference or
artifacts in the temperature estimates caused by volcanic aerosol, unknown physics, or retrieval uncertainties.

29,000 sets of data from over the past five years all conclude that warming is
becoming a threat: that’s too many to ignore

MSNBC ‘7 (MSNBC News, April 6 2007, “Experts Issue New Climate Warning”,
http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?id=6342&method=full)

An international global warming conference approved a report Friday warning of dire threats
to the Earth and to mankind from increased hunger in Africa and Asia to the extinction of
species unless the world adapts to climate change and halts its progress. Africa will be hardest hit, the
report concluded. By 2020, up to 250 million people are likely to exposed to water shortages. In some countries, food
production could fall by half, it said. Agreement came after an all-night session during which
key sections were deleted from the draft and scientists angrily confronted government
negotiators who they feared were watering down their findings. It has been a complex exercise, said
Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Several scientists objected to the editing of
the final draft by government negotiators but in the end agreed to compromises. However, some scientists vowed never to
take part in the process again. The climax of five days of negotiations was reached when the delegates removed parts of a key
chart highlighting devastating effects of climate change that kick in with every rise of 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, and in a tussle
over the level of scientific reliability attached to key statements. There was little doubt about the science,
which was based on 29,000 sets of data, much of it collected in the last five years. For the first
time we are not just arm-waving with models, Martin Perry, who conducted the grueling negotiations, told
reporters.

Satellite data prove the Earth is rapidly warming

Konstantin Y. Vinnikov1* and Norman C. Grody2 9/11/3


“Global Warming Trend of Mean Tropospheric Temperature Observed by Satellites” Science Express
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/302/5643/269

We have analyzed the global tropospheric temperature for 1978 to 2002 with the use of passive
microwave sounding data from the NOAA series of polar orbiters and the Earth Observing
System Aqua satellite. To accurately retrieve the climatic trend, we combined the satellite data
with an analytic model of temperature that contains three different time scales: a linear trend
and functions that define the seasonal and diurnal cycles. Our analysis shows a trend of +0.22°
to 0.26°C per 10 years, consistent with the global warming trend derived from surface
meteorological stations.
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Warming Real Ext. – (1/2)


Scientific evidence unequivocally points to global warming in the squo.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007:


Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p. 8)
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of
increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice
and rising global average sea level (Figure 1.1). {WGI3.2, 4.8, 5.2, 5.5, SPM} Eleven of the last
twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of
global surface temperature (since 1850). The 100-year linear trend (1906-2005) of 0.74 [0.56 to
0.92]°C is larger than the corresponding trend of 0.6 [0.4 to 0.8]°C (1901-2000) given in the TAR
(Figure 1.1). The linear warming trend over the 50 years from 1956 to 2005 (0.13 [0.10 to
0.16]°C per decade) is nearly twice that for the 100 years from 1906 to 2005. {WGI 3.2, SPM}
The temperature increase is widespread over the globe and is greater at higher northern
latitudes (Figure 1.2). Average Arctic temperatures have increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years. Land
regions have warmed faster than the oceans (Figures 1.2 and 2.5). Observations since 1961 show that the average temperature of
the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3000m and that the ocean has been taking up over 80% of the heat being
added to the climate system. New analyses of balloonborne and satellite measurements of lower- and mid-tropospheric temperature show
warming rates similar to those observed in surface temperature. {WGI 3.2, 3.4, 5.2, SPM} Increases in sea level are consistent with warming
(Figure 1.1). Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3]mm per year over 1961 to 2003 and at an average rate of about
3.1 [2.4 to 3.8]mm per year from 1993 to 2003. Whether this faster rate for 1993 to 2003 reflects decadal variation or an increase in the
longerterm trend is unclear. Since
1993 thermal expansion of the oceans has contributed about 57% of
the sum of the estimated individual contributions to the sea level rise, with decreases in
glaciers and ice caps contributing about 28% and losses from the polar ice sheets contributing
the remainder. From 1993 to 2003 the sum of these climate contributions is consistent within
uncertainties with the total sea level rise that is directly observed. {WGI 4.6, 4.8, 5.5, SPM, Table
SPM.1} Observed decreases in snow and ice extent are also consistent with warming (Figure
1.1). Satellite data since 1978 show that annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1
to 3.3]% per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8]% per decade. Mountain
glaciers and snow cover on average have declined in both hemispheres. The maximum areal extent of
seasonally frozen ground has decreased by about 7% in the Northern Hemisphere since 1900, with decreases in spring of up to 15%.
Temperatures at the top of the permafrost layer have generally increased since the 1980s in the Arctic by up to 3°C. {WGI 3.2, 4.5, 4.6,n 4.7,
4.8, 5.5, SPM} At continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous longterm changes in other aspects of climate have also been
precipitation
observed. Trends from 1900 to 2005 have been observed in precipitation amount in many large regions. Over this period,
increased significantly in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and
northern and central Asia whereas precipitation declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean,
southern Africa and parts of southern Asia. Globally, the area affected by drought has likely2
increased since the 1970s. {WGI 3.3, 3.9, SPM} nSome extreme weather events have changed in
frequency and/ or intensity over the last 50 years: _ It is very likely that cold days, cold nights and
frosts have become less frequent over most land areas, while hot days and hot nights have
become more frequent. {WGI 3.8, SPM} _ It is likely that heat waves have become more
frequent overmost land areas. {WGI 3.8, SPM} _ It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation events (orproportion of
total rainfall from heavy falls) has increased over most areas. {WGI 3.8, 3.9, SPM}_ It is likely that the incidence of extreme high sea level3
hasincreased at a broad range of sites worldwide since 1975. {WGI5.5, SPM}There
is observational evidence of an
increase in intense tropicalcyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, and
suggestionsof increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some other regions where concerns over
data quality are greater. Multi-decadal variabilityand the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routinesatellite observations in about
1970 complicate the detection of longtermtrends in tropical cyclone activity. {WGI 3.8, SPM}Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures
during the secondhalf of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the
highest in at leastthe past 1300 years. {WGI 6.6, SPM}
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Warming Real Ext. (2/2)


89% of recently observed changes in the environment are consistent with global
warming.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007:


Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p. 11)
Changes in the ocean and on land, including observed decreases in snow cover and Northern
Hemisphere sea ice extent, thinner sea ice, shorter freezing seasons of lake and river ice,
glacier melt, decreases in permafrost extent, increases in soil temperatures and borehole
temperature profiles, and sea level rise, provide additional evidence that the world is warming.
{WGI 3.9} Of the more than 29,000 observational data series, from 75 studies, that show
significant change in many physical and biological systems, more than 89% are consistent with
the direction of change expected as a response to warming (Figure 1.2). {WGII 1.4, SPM}

Warming trends are real and human caused.

Brown 08 (Lester R., Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save
Civilization, p. 49-50)
Since 1970, the earth’s average temperature has risen by 0.6 degrees Celsius, or 1 degree
Fahrenheit. Meteorologists note that the 23 warmest years on record have come since 1980. And the
seven warmest years since recordkeeping began in 1880 have come in the last nine years. Four
of these—2002, 2003, 2005, and 2006—were years in which major food-producing regions saw
their crops wither in the face of record temperatures.7 The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the
atmosphere has risen substantially since the start of the Industrial Revolution, growing from
277 parts per million (ppm) to 384 ppm in 2007. The annual rise in the atmospheric CO2 level,
one of the world’s most predictable environmental trends, is the result of the annual discharge
into the atmosphere of 7.5 billion tons of carbon from burning fossil fuels and 1.5 billion tons
from deforestation. The current annual rise is nearly four times what it was in the 1950s,
largely because of increased emissions from burning fossil fuels. As more CO2 accumulates in
the atmosphere, temperatures go up.8
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Warming is Anthropogenic Frontline – (1/3)


( ) There is a scientific consensus that anthropogenic global warming is occurring

Naomi Oreskes 12/3/4 “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change”


http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686

Policy-makers and the media, particularly in the United States, frequently assert that climate
science is highly uncertain. Some have used this as an argument against adopting strong measures
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For example, while discussing a major U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency report on the risks of climate change, then-EPA administrator Christine Whitman
argued, "As [the report] went through review, there was less consensus on the science and
conclusions on climate change" (1). Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected
by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science (2).
Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific
community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This is not the case. The
scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations
Environmental Programme, IPCC's purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis
for informed policy action, primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific
literature (3). In its most recent assessment, IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of
scientific opinion is that Earth's climate is being affected by human activities: "Human
activities ... are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents ... that absorb or scatter
radiant energy. ... [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been
due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" [p. 21 in (4)].IPCC is not alone in its
conclusions. In recent years, all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members'
expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements. For example, the National
Academy of Sciences report, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, begins:
"Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing
surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise" [p. 1 in (5)]. The report
explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking,
and answers yes: "The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is
likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the
current thinking of the scientific community on this issue" [p. 3 in (5)]. Others agree. The American
Meteorological Society (6), the American Geophysical Union (7), and the American Association
for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding
that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling (8). The drafting of such reports and
statements involves many opportunities for comment, criticism, and revision, and it is not likely that they would diverge
greatly from the opinions of the societies' members. Nevertheless, they might downplay legitimate dissenting opinions. That
hypothesis was tested by analyzing 928 abstracts, published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and listed
in the ISI database with the keywords "climate change" (9). The 928 papers were divided into six categories: explicit
endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and
rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first three categories, either explicitly or implicitly
accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position on current anthropogenic climate
change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position. Admittedly, authors
evaluating impacts, developing methods, or studying paleoclimatic change might believe that current climate change is
natural. However, none of these papers argued that point. This analysis shows that scientists publishing in the peer-reviewed
literature agree with IPCC, the National Academy of Sciences, and the public statements of their professional societies.
Politicians, economists, journalists, and others may have the impression of confusion, disagreement, or
discord among climate scientists, but that impression is incorrect. The question of what to do
about climate change is also still open. But there is a scientific consensus on the reality
ofanthropogenic climate change. Climate scientists have repeatedly tried to make this clear. It is
time for the rest of us to listen.
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Warming is Anthropogenic Frontline – (2/3)


( ) Multiple studies prove- warming can only be contributed to anthropogenic causes

Peter Scott 7/16/3 Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research “Attribution of temperature
changes to anthropogenic and natural causes”
http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/~mnew/teaching/Online_Articles/stott_regional_attribution_GRL_2003.pdf

An increasing body of evidence indicates that global warming that has been observed over the
course of the last century cannot be explained by natural externally forced or internal
variability [Mitchell et al., 2001]. A number of recent studies [eg., Stott et al., 2001;
Tett et al., 2002] have used optimal detection [Hasselmann, 1997], a form of
linear regression [Allen and Tett, 1999], to estimate the contributions, with their
uncertainties, of anthropogenic and natural forcings to recent temperature changes.
Optimal detection studies consistently show that anthropogenic forcings were the dominant
factor controlling global warming in the latter half of the 20th century, leading the
IPCC to conclude in the Third Assessment Report that ‘‘most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities’’. [3] Most
detection studies investigating atmospheric temperature changes have
considered global scale patterns of change. [Zwiers and Zhang, 2003] showed
that the combined effects of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols may be detected on sub-
global scales, and showed a detectable anthropogenic influence on warming in Eurasia and
North America.

( ) Ice depletion cannot be due to natural causes- its happening too rapidly

Konstantin Y. Vinnikov 12/3/99 “Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent”
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/286/5446/1934

Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice
extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations
(forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much
larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of
climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural
climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is
less than 2 percent for the 1978-98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953-98 sea ice
trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent
throughout the next century.
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Warming is Anthropogenic Frontline – (3/3)

()Ice caps prove anthropogenic causes are leading to global warming: satellite data
analyzed by arctic specialists proves

David Adam 9-5-7 “Ice-Free Arctic Could be Here in 30 Years” The Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/sep/05/climatechange.sciencenews

The Arctic ice cap has collapsed at an unprecedented rate this summer and levels of sea ice in
the region now stand at a record low, scientists said last night. Experts said they were "stunned"
by the loss of ice, with an area almost twice as big as Britain disappearing in the last week
alone. So much ice has melted this summer that the north-west passage across the top of Canada is
fully navigable, and observers say the north-east passage along Russia's Arctic coast could open
later this month. If the increased rate of melting continues, the summertime Arctic could be
totally free of ice by 2030. Mark Serreze, an Arctic specialist at the US National Snow and Ice Data
Centre at Colorado University in Denver which released the figures, said: "It's amazing. It's simply
fallen off a cliff and we're still losing ice." The Arctic has now lost about a third of its ice since
satellite measurements began 30 years ago, and the rate of loss has accelerated sharply since 2002. Dr Serreze said: "If
you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that
2030 is a reasonable estimate. It seems that the Arctic is going to be a very different place within our lifetimes, and certainly within our
children's lifetimes." The new figures show that sea ice extent is currently down to 4.4m square kilometres (1.7m square miles) and still falling.
The previous record low was 5.3m square kilometres in September 2005. From 1979 to 2000 the average sea ice extent was 7.7m square
kilometres. The minimum extent of sea ice usually occurs late in September each year, as the freezing Arctic winter begins to bite.
The sea ice usually then begins to freeze again over the winter. But Dr Serreze said that would be difficult this year. "This summer we've got all
this open water and added heat going into the ocean. That is going to make it much harder for the ice to grow back. What we've seen this year
sets us up for an even worse year next year." The
winter ice has already failed to make up for increased losses
in the summer in each of the last two years. Changes in wind and ocean circulation patterns can
help reduce sea ice extent, but Dr Serreze said the main culprit was man-made global warming.
"The rules are starting to change and what's changing the rules is the input of greenhouse
gases. This year puts the exclamation mark on a series of record lows that tell us something is
happening."

( ) Their “natural cycle” arguments are wrong- current warming trends are unlike
anything ever seen- there is a scientific consensus that the cause is anthropogenic

Janine Bloomfield 1 (Scientist at Center for Climate Systems Research at Columbia University) “Hot
Prospects” http://www.environmentaldefense.com/documents/494_HotProspects.pdf

Over the last hundred years, global climate has warmed by about 1°F. The decade of the 1990’s
was the warmest in recorded history, and 1998 was the warmest year in both the instrumental record
(since 1861) and, in all likelihood, in the Northern Hemisphere over the last thousand years. The
effects of this seemingly small change are evident in all corners of the globe. Glaciers are
melting, spring is arriving earlier, oceans are warming, and coral reefs are dying. There is
international scientific consensus that most of the warming over the last fifty years is due to
human activities, not natural causes. Over millions of years, billions of animals and plants lived,
died and were compressed to form huge deposits of oil, gas and coal. In little more than three
hundred years, however, we have burned a large amount of this storehouse of carbon.Today,
billions of tons of carbon—in the form of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse
gases— are trapped in our atmosphere. They form a blanket around the Earth trapping heat, raising
temperatures on the ground, and steadily changing our climate. That
may be the reason we are already witnessing worldwide shrinkage of glaciers, thawing of
permafrost, heavier rainfall in some areas, and droughts in others. Depending on how much
greenhouse gas pollution occurs and using a range of climate models, global temperatures are
expected to rise from 2.5° to 10.4°F by the year 2100. Scientists believe that warming of this
magnitude and speed has not occurred in the last ten thousand years.
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Warming is Anthropogenic Ext – (1/2)


Warming is human-caused – greenhouse theory, correlation of key gases with
warming prove.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007:


Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p. 15)
Changes in the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs and aerosols, land cover and solar
radiation alter the
energy balance of the climate system and are drivers of climate change. They affect the
absorption, scattering and emission of radiation within the atmosphere and at the Earth’s
surface. The resulting positive or negative changes in energy balance due to these factors are
expressed as radiative forcing4, which is used to compare warming or cooling influences on global
climate. {WGI TS.2} Human activities result in emissions of four long-lived GHGs: CO2,
methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and halocarbons (a group of gases containing fluorine,
chlorine or bromine). Atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase when emissions are larger than
removal processes. Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased
markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values
determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years (Figure 2.3). The atmospheric
concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years.
Global increases in CO2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use, with land-use
change providing another significant but smaller contribution. It is very likely that the observed
increase in CH4 concentration is predominantly due to agriculture and fossil fuel use. The
increase in N2O concentration is primarily due to agriculture. {WGI 2.3, 7.3, SPM} The global
atmospheric concentration of CO2 increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280ppm to
379ppm in 2005. The annual CO2 concentration growth rate was larger during the last 10
years (1995-2005 average: 1.9ppm per year) than it has been since the beginning of continuous
direct atmospheric measurements (1960-2005 average: 1.4ppm per year), although there is year-
toyear variability in growth rates. {WGI 2.3, 7.3, SPM; WGIII 1.3} The global atmospheric
concentration of CH4 has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 715ppb to 1732ppb in
the early 1990s, and was 1774ppb in 2005. Growth rates have declined since the early 1990s,
consistent with total emissions (sum of anthropogenic and natural sources) being nearly constant
during this period. {WGI 2.3, 7.4, SPM} The global atmospheric N2O concentration increased
from a pre-industrial value of about 270ppb to 319ppb in 2005. {WGI 2.3, 7.4, SPM} Many
halocarbons (including hydrofluorocarbons) have increased from a near-zero pre-industrial
background concentration, primarily due to human activities. {WGI 2.3, SPM; SROC SPM}
There is very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750
has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W/m2 (Figure 2.4). {WGI
2.3, 6.5, 2.9, SPM} The combined radiative forcing due to increases in CO2, CH4 and N2O is +2.3
[+2.1 to +2.5] W/m2, and its rate of increase during the industrial era is very likely to have been
unprecedented in more than 10,000 years (Figures 2.3 and 2.4). The CO2 radiative forcing
increased by 20% from 1995 to 2005, the largest change for any decade in at least the last 200
years. {WGI 2.3, 6.4, SPM} Anthropogenic contributions to aerosols (primarily sulphate, organic
carbon, black carbon, nitrate and dust) together produce acooling effect, with a total direct radiative
forcing of -0.5 [-0.9 to -0.1] W/m2 and an indirect cloud albedo forcing of -0.7 [-1.8 to -0.3] W/m2.
Aerosols also influence precipitation. {WGI 2.4, 2.9, 7.5, SPM} In comparison, changes in solar
irradiance since 1750 are estimated to have caused a small radiative forcing of +0.12 [+0.06 to
+0.30] W/m2, which is less than half the estimate given in the TAR. {WGI 2.7, SPM}
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Warming is human-caused – natural causes alone can’t explain the evidence.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007:


Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p. 18-19)
Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is
very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.8 This is an
advance since the TAR’s conclusion that “most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is
likely to have been due to the increase in GHG concentrations” (Figure 2.5). {WGI 9.4, SPM} The
observed widespread warming of the atmosphere and ocean, together with ice mass loss,
support the conclusion that it is extremely unlikely that global climate change of the past 50
years can be explained without external forcing and very likely that it is not due to known natural
causes alone. During this period, the sum of solar and volcanic forcings would likely have
produced cooling, not warming. Warming of the climate system has been detected in changes
in surface and atmospheric temperatures and in temperatures of the upper several hundred
metres of the ocean. The observed pattern of tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling is
very likely due to the combined influences of GHG increases and stratospheric ozone depletion. It is
likely that increases in GHG concentrations alone would have caused more warming than observed
because volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols have offset some warming that would otherwise have
taken place. {WGI 2.9, 3.2, 3.4, 4.8, 5.2, 7.5, 9.4, 9.5, 9.7, TS.4.1, SPM} It is likely that there has
been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent
(except Antarctica) (Figure 2.5). {WGI 3.2, 9.4, SPM} The observed patterns of warming, including
greater warming over land than over the ocean, and their changes over time, are simulated only by
models that include anthropogenic forcing. No coupled global climate model that has used natural
forcing only has reproduced the continental mean warming trends in individual continents (except
Antarctica) over the second half of the 20th century. {WGI 3.2, 9.4, TS.4.2, SPM} Difficulties
remain in simulating and attributing observed temperature changes at smaller scales. On these
scales, natural climate variability is relatively larger, making it harder to distinguish changes
expected due to external forcings. Uncertainties in local forcings, such as those due to aerosols and
land-use change, and feedbacks also make it difficult to estimate the contribution of GHG increases
to observed small-scale temperature changes. {WGI 8.3, 9.4, SPM} Advances since the TAR show
that discernible human influences extend beyond average temperature to other aspectsof
climate, including temperature extremes and wind patterns. {WGI 9.4, 9.5, SPM}
Temperatures of the most extreme hot nights, cold nights and cold days are likely to have
increased due to anthropogenic forcing. It is more likely than not that anthropogenic forcing
has increased the risk of heat waves. Anthropogenic forcing is likely to have contributed to
changes in wind patterns, affecting extra-tropical storm tracks and temperature patterns in
both hemispheres. However, the observed changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation are larger
than simulated by models in response to 20th century forcing change. {WGI 3.5, 3.6, 9.4, 9.5, 10.3,
SPM} It is very likely that the response to anthropogenic forcing contributed to sea level rise
during the latter half of the 20th century. There is some evidence of the impact of human climatic
influence on the hydrological cycle, including the observed large-scale patterns of changes in land
precipitation over the 20th century. It is more likely than not that human influence has contributed
to a global trend towards increases in area affected by drought since the 1970s and the
frequency of heavy precipitation events. {WGI 3.3, 5.5, 9.5, TS.4.1, TS.4.3}
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 32
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Emissions Increasing
CO2 emission growth is accelerating.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007:


Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p. 11)
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic GHG. Its annual emissions have
grown between 1970 and 2004 by about80%, from 21 to 38 gigatonnes (Gt), and represented 77%
of total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 (Figure 2.1). The rate of growth of CO2-eq
emissions was much higher during the recent10-year period of 1995-2004 (0.92 GtCO2-eq per
year) than during the previous period of 1970-1994 (0.43 GtCO2-eq per year). {WGIII1.3, TS.1,
SPM} The largest growth in GHG emissions between 1970 and 2004 has come from energy
supply, transport and industry, while residential and commercial buildings, forestry (including
deforestation) and agriculture sectors have been growing at a lower rate. The sectoral sources of
GHGs in 2004 are considered in Figure 2.1c. {WGIII 1.3, SPM} The effect on global emissions of
the decrease in global energy intensity (-33%) during 1970 to 2004 has been smaller than the
combined effect of global income growth (77%) and global population growth (69%); both
drivers of increasing energy-related CO2 emissions. The long-term trend of declining CO2
emissions per unit of energy supplied reversed after 2000. {WGIII 1.3, Figure SPM.2, SPM}

Emissions are set to increase for decades.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007:


Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p. 22)
There is high agreement and much evidence9 that with current climate change mitigation
policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to
grow over the next few decades. Baseline emissions scenarios published since the IPCC Special
Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000) are comparable in range to those presented in SRES
(see Box on SRES scenarios and Figure 3.1).10 {WGIII 1.3, 3.2, SPM} The SRES scenarios
project an increase of baseline global GHG emissions by a range of 9.7 to 36.7 GtCO2-eq (25 to
90%) between 2000 and 2030. In these scenarios, fossil fuels are projected to maintain their
dominant position in the global energy mix to 2030 and beyond. Hence CO2 emissions from
energy use between 2000 and 2030 are projected to grow 40 to 110% over that period. {WGIII
1.3, SPM}
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 33
Scholars Warming

***A2: No Solve – Alt Caus/Time/US Key***


Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 34
Scholars Warming

A2: Deforestation – Turn: Warming is the Cause


Warming Hurts Rainforest Growth, in turn slowing the rate of absorption of carbon
dioxide and making warming inevitable

Genesis Online 08
“Fuels of Paradise” January 19, 2008 http://www.dhushara.com/book/diversit/extra/co2/gwfor.htm
Researchers working in Costa Rica have discovered disturbing evidence that increasing temperatures
have markedly slowed the growth of tropical trees over the past decade. The slowdown may explain
calculations suggesting that tropical forests, which are usually considered to take up carbon dioxide,
have actually added millions of tons of the greenhouse gas to the atmosphere each year during the
1990s, making them a huge net source, comparable in size to the combustion of fossil fuels. The trend
could exacerbate global warming: as the mercury rises, tropical forests may dump yet more carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere, causing still more warming. In 1984 researchers Deborah A. Clark and David B. Clark
of the University of Missouri, collaborating with Charles D. Keeling and Stephen C. Piper of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography
in La jolla, Calif., began measuring the growth rates of scores of adult tropical rain-forest trees at La Selva Biological Station in
central Costa Rica. The sample includes six different tree species, with both fast and slow-growing types represented. Using special
measuring collars, the scientists obtain reliable data on aboveground growth each year. Deborah Clark presented the team's findings in
August at a meeting of the Ecological Society of America in Baltimore. The group found that growth of all the trees fluctuated
considerably from year to year. Moreover, the year-to-year changes correspond strikingly with the results of separate calculations of
the size each year of a colossal unexplained tropical terrestrial source of carbon dioxide. In years when this theoretical source was
large, the trees had grown slowly; in years when it was small or negative, the trees had grown faster. The apparent lesson is that the
varying annual growth rate of trees in tropical forests could account, in large part, for a calculated increase in carbon dioxide released
from land in the tropical zone in the 1980s and 1990s (although other sources, such as soil microbes, probably also contribute).
Although trees take in carbon dioxide and release oxygen during photosynthesis, they also release
some carbon dioxide as a by-product of respiration, as most organisms do. When growing vigorously,
plants take up more than they produce. But if growth slows, the balance shifts. The annual excess of carbon
coming from tropical forests, according to a preliminary calculation by Keel ing and his associates, has been more than four billion
tons in some recent years. many researchers regard such estimates as provocative but not ironclad.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 35
Scholars Warming

A2: Deforestation (1/4)


A carbon market can reduce deforestation

Annie Petsonk, March 27 2007, “Climate Change- International Issues, Engaging Developing Countries”, J.D., Harvard
Law School. Adjunct professor, George Washington University and University of Maryland law schools (1994-present); trial attorney
in Policy, Legislation and Special Litigation, US Department of Justice (1990-1995); environmental law unit, United Nations
Environment Programme (1986-1989), (http://energycommerce.house.gov/cmte_mtgs/110-eaq-hrg.032707.Petsonk-testimony.pdf)

In establishing the U.S. cap-and-trade market, Congress can create incentives for developing
countries to reduce emissions broadly, rather than engaging them only on scattershot projects. A good place to
start would be with tropical forest nations. Tropical forest destruction emits as much CO2 as the whole United States(see Fig.
7). Tropical forest nations are among the world's top emitters. According to WRI/CAIT, the third and fourth largest emitters
in the world are Indonesia (#3) and Brazil (#4), and more than 70% of their GHG emissions come from deforestation (see
Fig. 8). In some countries, forest protection initiatives are underway but need help. Well-designed
carbon markets should offer incentives to reduce tropical deforestation. Kyoto offers none. With
Brazilian NGO partners, Environmental Defense has pioneered a proposal called Compensated Reduction, in which any
tropical forest nation that reduces its national deforestation emissions below a historical
baseline would be eligible for compensation via carbon markets (see Fig. 13). Were Congress
to open the U.S. carbon market to credits earned by developing countries that reduce
deforestation nation-wide, Congress could strengthen those nations’ climate and biodiversity
protection efforts and create a model for engaging developing countries broadly.

Replacing Energy, not stopping deforestation, is key to combat warming

Reuters, July 9 2001, “Carbon Sinks Won’t Solve Global Warming—Only Solution Is To Cut CO2
Emissions”, (http://www.mapcruzin.com/news/cc070901a.htm)

Forests and farmlands cannot be relied on to soak up environmentally damaging greenhouse


gases, and cuts in emissions are the only long-term way to reduce global warming, scientists
said on today. A new report by Britain's Royal Society said too little is known about how much
farmlands and forests, so-called carbon sinks, can absorb carbon dioxide (CO2), the main
greenhouse gas, from the atmosphere. Carbon sinks will be a major issue in Bonn next week when
environmentalists and policy-makers resume international climate talks, which have been
jeopardised by the withdrawal of the United States from the Kyoto agreement on global warming. In
its report, the independent body of top scientists said better methods are needed to verify the
impact of carbon sinks on global warming. Reducing the amount of CO2 from burning fossil
fuels should be the main way to reduce global warming. "These carbon sinks are of rather
limited size and also will only work for a relatively short duration, a few decades. That means
they can't make a major contribution to reducing carbon emissions and solving the global
warming problem," said Professor John Shepherd, an author of the report. Carbon sinks and emissions trading,
essentially a market for buying and selling the right to pollute, were the main stumbling blocks at the failed United Nations conference on climate change in The Hague
last year. The United States, Japan, Canada and Australia wanted more emphasis on carbon sinks in achieving the CO2 emission cuts set in the 1997 Kyoto protocol on
global warming. The pact commits developed nations to cutting emissions of CO2 by an average of just over five percent from 1990 levels by 2012. Officials gathering
in Bonn on July 16 for two weeks will try to get the talks back on track, despite the withdrawal of the United States earlier this year. Shepherd, the director of Britain's
Tyndall Centre for Climate Research, said carbon sinks were diverting the talks from the main issue which is cutting emissions. According to the report, carbon sinks
. But it added that the maximum that could
and soil absorb about 40 percent of CO2 emissions and could soak up as much as 45 percent
be absorbed would only be equivalent to a quarter of that needed by 2050 to prevent major rises in
global temperature. "Our view is that the argument is being diverted into what is really a rather
unproductive area and people should get back to talking about carbon emission reductions at
source by use of renewable (fuels) and whatever else they think is necessary," said Shepherd. The
scientists also warned that in the future carbon sinks could become a source of CO2. They could
release greenhouse gases, such as methane. "The primary benefit of land carbon sinks is that they
can be effective immediately and provide a financial incentive for the preservation and sustainable
use of forests and agriculture land," the report said. But the long-term solution must be cuts in
CO2 emissions through energy saving and replacing fossil fuels with renewable and nuclear
energy.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 36
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A2: Deforestation (2/4)


Deforestation is being solved now

Julie McCarthy, July 9 2007, “Unlikely Allies Battle Deforestation in the Amazon”, Foreign Correspondent South
America, Peabody recipient for coverage of Gulf War, was the foreign editor for Europe as well as Africa. She served as the Senior
Washington Editor during the Persian Gulf War, (http://www.npr.org/templatesstory/story php?storyId=11375220)

Guerrero, The Nature Conservancy's man in the field, says Cargill is persuading farmers that
they have a choice: get legal or go broke. He says the Amazon is increasingly being pulled into a global
market that demands environmentally friendly products, which is, he says, the argument that Cargill is using.”
If the market decides not to buy anymore soy from the Amazon," Guerrero says, "[the farmers] will be affected
by this reaction of the market. You know, if you lose the market, you lose everything," he says. As one of the
biggest soy traders in Brazil, Cargill took an unprecedented step. At the urging of Greenpeace, which has
tracked deforestation around Santarem, Cargill agreed to join a two-year moratorium on the
purchase of any soy grown on newly deforested areas. The action effectively removes the
incentive for soy farmers to cut down trees. Cargill’s Lori Johnson says the company pushed to
make the moratorium industry-wide "so that everyone who buys soy is taking the same
stance.” And that's ultimately what happened," says Johnson. "And one of the interesting things that
came out of those discussions is that it has brought together this kind of multi-stakeholder group.” But Not Without a
Fight Before Greenpeace and Cargill started cooperating with each other, they fought bitterly over the company's giant port terminal in Santarem. From there the
company ships hundreds of thousands of tons of soy down the Amazon to markets overseas. Greenpeace accused Cargill, one of the world's largest privately held
companies, of being indirectly complicit in deforestation of the area. But the company argues that only a fraction of the soy it transports comes from Santarem, and that
Small farmers are now caught
most of the land around the region was already cleared before Cargill arrived on the scene in 2003.
between the law and making their farms profitable. Many face the prospect of selling their
land and leaving. Farmer Viteu Holzbach plants soy on 130 of his 260 hectres, cultivating about
half the land. But under the long-standing 80:20 rule, he is only entitled to grow on a fifth of the
property, or about 50 hectres. He must either return a big chunk of his farm to its natural state,
or pay a large chunk to the government which would then set aside a legal reserve elsewhere.
“We feel oppressed. The NGO's call us criminals. But we don't want to work outside of the law. We worked our
whole lives honestly," Holzbach says. "And we came here after the forest had been cut down, and just took
advantage of what we found.” In the last two years Brazil's government says that the rate at which trees
are being destroyed has slowed in the Amazon. Analysts credit declining soy prices which have led to a
disincentive to plant. The Nature Conservancy's Guerrero credits groups like Greenpeace and other
conservationists who are on the frontlines in the struggle to save the rainforest. “Because we are
doing some work here to put some limits: addressing the problem, confronting the problem, and doing
something."Guerrero expects to see more partnerships like the one between the Nature
Conservancy and Cargill multiply as the battle continues over how to balance conservation in the Amazon
with economic growth.

Deforestation is declining

National Geographic News, November 13 2006, “World’s Forests Rebounding , Study Suggests”,
(http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/11/061113-forests.html)

Forests are branching out across the planet anew, raising hopes that an end to deforestation
may be in sight, a new study claims. The study suggests that deforestation is not as drastic as it
once was and that forests are recovering in many countries. The researchers say that over the
past 15 years the amount of woodland has increased in 22 of the world's 50 most forested
nations. China and the U.S. have achieved the greatest overall forest expansion, the team says,
while tree cover has spread fastest in China, Vietnam, and Spain. Asia as a whole is shown to have
gained 2.5 million acres (1 million hectares) of forest between 2000 and 2005. "Earth has suffered
an epidemic of deforestation," said co-researcher Jesse Ausubel, from Rockefeller University in
New York City. "Now humans may help spread an epidemic of forest restoration." Ausubel said
the trend identified in the study could "stop the styling of a skinhead Earth" and lead to a 10
percent increase in global forest cover—an area the size of India—by 2050.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 37
Scholars Warming

A2: Deforestation (3/4)


Developing nations are expanding their forests

National Geographic News, November 13 2006, “World’s Forests Rebounding , Study Suggests”,
(http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/11/061113-forests.html)

This encouraging picture of global forest growth comes from an international research team
that studied data from a 2005 forest-resources assessment by the United Nations Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO). The team advocates "a more sophisticated approach" to measuring
forest cover. This approach takes into account tree density as well as overall tree cover to
reveal a country's total forest resources, the team says. In Japan, for instance, tree cover is shown to be virtually
unchanged since World War II, but tree density has risen, producing an average annual 1.6 percent increase in forest biomass.
Lead author Pekka Kauppi of the University of Helsinki, Finland, admits that the study does not distinguish between planted,
homogenous tree stands and biologically richer old-growth forests. However, he says, much of the recorded
increase involves both natural regeneration and the effects of reforestation programs,
particularly in developing nations. The study notes, for example, that tropical forest in El
Salvador expanded more than 20 percent between 1992 and 2001. Reforestation efforts in
China have contributed to a 116-million-acre (47-million-hectare) increase in forest area since
the 1970s, the study adds. Increased human migration from rural to urban areas and higher
agricultural yields may also have aided regeneration, the authors say. Similar factors may have
helped in India, where forest cover was found to have increased since 1990. The team says
forest trends in these and other developing countries may be mirroring those seen in the past
in industrialized Western nations. In the U.S., for instance, forests in Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and
Illinois have expanded by half since the 19th century. The authors say factors behind reforestation in North America and
Europe range from increased conservation and farming productivity to a decline in newsprint demand following the rise of
electronic media. Whether the transition from deforestation to forest expansion becomes a truly global phenomenon will
depend largely on Brazil and Indonesia, where huge areas of tropical forest are still being cleared, Kauppi says. Indonesia has
recorded a 6 percent annual loss in forest biomass between 1990 and 2005. "But if China and India can do it, why
not Brazil and Indonesia?" Kauppi said.

Indigenous people are preventing deforestation

National Geographic News, February 28 2006, “Indigenous Lands Help Protect Amazon Forests,
Study Finds” (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/02/0228_060228_amazon.html)

Reserve areas established for Indian peoples in Brazil (map) are as effective as uninhabited
nature parks in preventing burning and clear-cutting, the study finds. An international team of
researchers tested a longstanding assumption: that land in uninhabited parks is better protected than
that in reserves with human populations. The scientists used satellite data taken from 1997 to 2000
to compare rates of fire and deforestation inside and outside the boundaries of different reserve
types. Only protected areas larger than 25,000 acres (10,100 hectares) were included in the analysis.
In the February issue of the journal Conservation Biology, the researchers report that reserves of all
types are providing significant Amazon forest protection, but tribal lands may be especially
important to preventing region-wide deforestation. "Many indigenous groups are very well
organized, and they are also willing to use force to defend their lands," said Daniel Nepstad of
the Woods Hole Research Center in Falmouth, Massachusetts, who led the study.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 38
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A2: Deforestation (4/4)


Indigenous lands are preventing deforestation in the Amazon

National Geographic News, February 28 2006, “Indigenous Lands Help Protect Amazon Forests,
Study Finds” (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/02/0228_060228_amazon.html)

The study confirms new thinking about conservation priorities in the Amazon. In the past, efforts
have focused largely on protecting isolated areas with little human presence. Nepstad and others
argue that while establishing parks in inaccessible regions is important, that alone doesn't slow
deforestation where it most commonly occurs: along the forest's retreating edge. In fact, it is the
proximity of many indigenous lands to Brazil's advancing agricultural frontier that makes
them so important, conservationists say. The front line of deforestation in the Amazon has been
moving into the forest from the south and east, leaving soybean fields and pastureland in its wake.
But in the states of Pará and Mato Grosso, that march of destruction has been halted by a vast
complex of indigenous lands occupied by the Kayapo and Xingu peoples. The protective barrier
created by these tribal lands is enormous—two and half times larger than the country of Costa
Rica. Here, study findings confirm what is visible to the naked eye from satellite maps. "Where
indigenous land in the Amazon starts is where the frontier stops," said Stephan Schwartzman, an
anthropologist with New York-based nonprofit Environmental Defense and a co-author of the study.
The study did not examine how protected areas with human populations—including indigenous
lands and national forests—maintain aspects of environmental health other than standing forest. In
some parts of the Amazon, gold mining, selective logging, and illegal hunting have caused extensive
damage. But these threats are less severe in many indigenous territories, where tribal groups guard
against outside intrusions. "Logging and hunting aren't trivial, but I'd far rather have these kinds of
impacts than have lands with little or no forest at all," said William Laurance, a staff scientist with
the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Manaus, Brazil. "Despite often being under
staggering pressures, the indigenous lands are doing a pretty good job of protecting the
Amazon," Laurance said.

Deforestation is declining in the Amazon


National Geographic News, February 28 2006, “Indigenous Lands Help Protect Amazon Forests,
Study Finds” (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/02/0228_060228_amazon.html)

By demonstrating such protection, the new study underscores the value of strategic alliances among
conservationists, indigenous tribes, and other rural land users. Such alliances have helped tribes like
the Kayapo gain official recognition of reserve areas and aided them in enforcing bans on forest clearing
and other illegal activities. Study co-author Paul Lefebvre, a research associate at the Woods Hole Research
Center, says a number of groups share a common interest in maintaining the forest. "There are some who
still argue that you need to put up fences and keep people out to protect the forest," Lefebvre said. "What
we're seeing now is that by keeping the people there, you can actually enhance protection." After
proceeding at a record rate from 2002 to 2004, Amazon deforestation slowed a bit in 2005. While falling
prices of commodities found in the region are thought to be partly responsible, new reserves and
improved enforcement also played a role. Last year the Brazilian government created nearly 20,000
square miles (51,800 square kilometers) of new sustainable-use reserves north of Kayapo lands. These
reserves create a formidable new barrier to frontier expansion, and alongside other reserves they
form a nearly continuous protected zone over 90,000 square miles (233,000 square kilometers). "The
alliance between conservation and indigenous groups has now extended to 'smallholder' organizations,"
Nepstad said, referring to groups of small-scale farmers and forest users whose advocacy helped lead to
the new protected areas. "They are, in one respect, the Amazon's new conservationists," Nepstad said.
With additional new reserves planned over the coming years, more than 40 percent of the Brazilian
Amazon forest will have some protected status.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 39
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A2: Contrails
No evidence to support contrails contribute to warming

National Geographic News, June 14 2006, “Airplane Contrails Boost Global Warming, Study
Suggests”, (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/06/060614-contrails.html)

Scientists disagree about the extent of contrails' climate impact. "The jury is out on the impact
of contrails," said Patrick Minnis, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in
Langley, Virginia. David Travis, a climatologist at the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, notes
that some recent studies suggest that contrails have little impact on global climate change but
have a greater regional warming impact. "I prefer to think of contrails as a regional-scale climate
problem, as they are most common in certain regions of the world, such as western Europe, eastern
and central U.S., and parts of eastern Asia," he said. "This is due to a combination of dense air
traffic in these areas and favorable atmospheric conditions to support contrail persistence once they
form." Because of their locations and short life spans, contrails are a difficult study subject.
"The greatest impediment to understanding the contrail impacts on weather and climate is the poor
state of knowledge of humidity in the upper troposphere [3.8 to 9.3 miles/6 to 15 kilometers in
altitude]," NASA's Minnis said. "Until we can measure it properly and extensively, and model it
and its interaction with cirrus clouds and contrails, we will continue to have large uncertainties
about the effect of contrails."
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 40
Scholars Warming

A2: Cows
Cow emissions being solved now

David Adam, July 10 2007, “Move to Cut Methane Emissions by Changing Cows Diet”, environmental
correspondent The Guardian, (http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2007/jul/10/ruralaffairs.climatechange)

Burping cows and sheep are being targeted by UK scientists to help bring down Britain's
soaring levels of greenhouse gas pollution. Experts at the Institute of Grassland and
Environmental Research in Aberystwyth say the diet of farmed animals can be changed to make
them produce less methane, a more potent global warming gas than carbon dioxide. Farmed
ruminant animals are thought to be responsible for up to a quarter of "man-made" methane
emissions worldwide though, contrary to common belief, most gas emerges from their front, not
rear, ends. Mike Abberton, a scientist at the institute, said farmers could help tackle climate
change by growing grass varieties bred to have high sugar levels, white clover and birdsfoot
trefoil, a leafy legume, for their animals to eat. The altered diet changes the way that bacteria in
the stomachs of the animals break down plant material into waste gas, he said. The institute has
started a new government research programme, with the universities of Wales and Reading, to
investigate how this process could be improved. A similar project in New Zealand suggested that
dietary changes could reduce methane emissions from sheep by up to 50%. Dr Abberton said:
"It's very unlikely that we'll get that sort of reduction in the UK but it could still make a significant
difference. Making the animals' diet more digestible can lower their methane emissions." A
single cow can produce between 100 and 200 litres of methane every day. Farmers regularly re-sow
their fields so Dr Abberton said the switch in diet could be relatively straightforward. Birdsfoot
trefoil can be difficult to grow, he said, but part of the new project is to develop more suitable
varieties. As well as helping to reduce methane production, growing legumes such as clover could
help replenish soil nitrogen levels because they naturally attract bacteria and fungi that fix it from
the air. In a separate project, Giles Oldroyd, a plant scientist at the John Innes Centre in Norwich, is
working on ways to genetically modify other plants such as wheat so they can mimic this nitrogen-
fixing ability, an advance he called the holy grail of crop research because it would dramatically cut
the use of synthetic fertilisers. Scientists at the University of Hohenheim in Stuttgart, Germany,
announced this year that they had developed a pill to reduce methane emissions from cattle.
The plant-based pill, combined with a special diet and strict feeding times, is meant to reduce the
methane produced by cows by converting it to glucose.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 41
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A2: Sun (1/2)


Mars warming is not caused by the sun

National Geographic News, February 28 2007, “Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause For
Warming, Scientist Says”, (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html)

Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea just
isn't supported by the theory or by the observations." The conventional theory is that climate
changes on Mars can be explained primarily by small alterations in the planet's orbit and tilt,
not by changes in the sun. "Wobbles in the orbit of Mars are the main cause of its climate
change in the current era," Oxford's Wilson explained. All planets experience a few wobbles as
they make their journey around the sun. Earth's wobbles are known as Milankovitch cycles and
occur on time scales of between 20,000 and 100,000 years. These fluctuations change the tilt of
Earth's axis and its distance from the sun and are thought to be responsible for the waxing and
waning of ice ages on Earth. Mars and Earth wobble in different ways, and most scientists think
it is pure coincidence that both planets are between ice ages right now. "Mars has no [large]
moon, which makes its wobbles much larger, and hence the swings in climate are greater too,"
Wilson said.

The sun does not cause global warming

National Geographic News, September 13 2006, “Don’t Blame Sun For Global Warming, Study
Says”, (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/09/060913-sunspots.html)

Sunspots alter the amount of energy Earth gets from the sun, but not enough to impact global
climate change, a new study suggests. The sun's role in global warming has long been a matter of
debate and is likely to remain a contentious topic. Solar astronomer Peter Foukal of Heliophysics,
Inc., in Nahant, Massachusetts, points out that scientists have pondered the link between the sun and
Earth's climate since the time of Galileo, the famous 17th-century astronomer. "There has been an
intuitive perception that the sun's variable degree of brightness—the coming and going of sunspots
for instance—might have an impact on climate," Foukal said. Foukal is lead author of a review
paper on sunspot intensity appearing in tomorrow's issue of the journal Nature. He says that most
climate models—including ones used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—
already incorporate the effects of the sun's waxing and waning power on Earth's weather
(related images: our stormy star). But, Foukal said, "this paper says that that particular mechanism
[sunspots], which is most intuitive, is probably not having an impact." Sunspot Impact Simply
Too Small Sunspots are magnetic disturbances that appear as cooler, dark patches on the sun's
surface. The number of spots cycles over time, reaching a peak every 11 years. The spots' impact on the sun's total energy output is easy to see. "As it turns out,
most of the sun's power output is in the visible range—what we see as brightness," said Henk Spruit, study co-author from the Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics in
Garching, Germany. "The sun's brightness varies only because of the blemishes that are also visible directly on pictures: the dark patches called sunspots and the
." The sun's energy output varies
minute bright points called faculae. In terms of brightness changes, in large part, what you see is what you get
slightly as sunspots wax and wane on the star's surface. But sunspot-driven changes to the sun's
power are simply too small to account for the climatic changes observed in historical data
from the 17th century to the present, research suggests. The difference in brightness between
the high point of a sunspot cycle and its low point is less than 0.1 percent of the sun's total
output. "If you run that back in time to the 17th century using sunspot records, you'll find
that this amplitude variance is negligible for climate," Foukal said.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 42
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A2: Sun (2/2)


Human influence far outweighs the suns impact on climate

Tampa Tribune, June 29 2008, “Global Warming Denialists Misrepresenting Science”,


(http://www2.hernandotoda y.com/content/2008/jun/29/ha-global-warming-denialists-misrepresenting-
scien/)

CO2 levels have fluctuated over the millennia, true. But ice samples dating back 600,000 years
show a variation of 175-280 ppm of CO2. The current level is 385 ppm. That is far higher than the
variation over several ice age cycles. The ice age cycles themselves appear to be related to wobbles
in Earth's orbit which vary its distance from the sun. These Milankovich cycles create alternating
freezing and warming of the planet. The planet was never caught in a Little Ice Age, as DeWitt
claims. The Little Ice Age is the name given to a period of unusually cold weather in the North
Atlantic region. Usually it is dated from 1400 to about 1800 AD; although some say it started in
1300. Nobody knows whether the cold weather was continuous or whether a few extra cold
winters got all the "press." There was a 50 year period of observed low sunspot activity from about
1645-1715. This is called the Maunder Minimum and is often associated with the Little Ice Age. As
astronomy was primitive in those days, there are serious questions as to whether the Maunder
Minimum existed, how long it lasted and whether it had anything to do with the Little Ice Age.
At any rate, a 2006 study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research established that the
difference in solar luminosity between peak sunspot years (maxima) and years of low sunspot
activity (minima) is only 0.07 percent. (That's seven one hundredths of 1 percent), leading the chief
researcher on the project to note: "Our results indicate that, over the past century, climate
change due to human influence must far outweigh changes in the sun's brightness." As to
DeWitt's comment that we've been getting more sunlight since the 1980s. True, but it is well
established that the "global dimming" prior to the mid 1980s was due to particulate pollution (aka
sulfate aerosols) which blocked sunlight but have been steadily reduced by environmental
regulations in the developed world. DeWitt's allegation that the sun is "10 percent hotter" has no
basis in fact and borders on the ridiculous. His comment about global warming on Mars was
apparently inspired by widespread media misreporting of a 2005 study of retreating glaciers in
the South Polar region of the planet. The study itself made clear that the shrinking ice cap was
due to the fact that it was summer. Only the southern hemisphere of Mars was affected.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 43
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A2: Plants
Plants do not emit noticeable amounts of methane

New Scientist, May 2 2007, “Plants not to blame for Potent Greenhouse Gasses”,
(http://environment.newscientist. com/channel/earth/mg19426023.700-plants-not-to-blame-for-potent-
greenhouse-gases.html)

They are off the hook after all. Last year a paper appeared that suggested, to widespread
amazement, that plants are major emitters of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas (New
Scientist, 14 January 2006, p 13). Now a trial in a gas-tight greenhouse has negated this. Plants
do not, it turns out, contribute to climate change by emitting methane. Tom Dueck at Plant
Research International in Wageningen, the Netherlands, and colleagues grew six species of plants -
maize, tomato, wheat, sage, evening primrose and basil - in air in which the carbon in the CO2 was
the heavy isotope carbon-13. The only gases in the greenhouse were pumped in from cylinders,
ensuring that if the plants produced any methane it would contain carbon-13. Despite using a
sensitive laser measuring technique called photo-acoustic spectroscopy, Dueck's team failed to
detect methane containing the heavy isotope (New Phytologist, DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-
8137.2007.02103.x).

Plants do not contribute to global warming

New Scientist, December 2 2007, “Plants Do Emit Methane After All”,


(http://environment.newscientist.com /channel/earth/mg19626322.900-plants-do-emit-methane-after-
all.html)

It seems some plants do produce methane - but only particular species, and not much of it. Zhi-
Ping Wang of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing and colleagues took samples of 44
different species of plants growing around a research station in Inner Mongolia, sealed them in
chambers and measured the gases they released. A woody shrub, Achillea frigida, released small
amounts of methane (Environmental Science & Technology, DOI: 10.1021/es071224l). "This is the
most robust proof of the process that Keppler discovered," says Jay Gulledge of the Pew Center on
Global Climate Change in Arlington, Virginia, a co-author of the report. Woody shrubs are
encroaching into some ecosystems as a result of global warming, but Gulledge isn't worried, and
says plant methane emission need not be included in climate models. "Regardless of how much
methane the plants emit through this process, it is nonsense to suggest that they are
contributing to global warming," he says. Now the search is on for a mechanism to explain how
the plants produce methane, something it was thought only bacteria could do.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 44
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A2: Arthropods
Termites do not cause warming

Science News, April 28 1990, “Termites Not To Blame For Methane”, (http://findarticles.com/p/articles
/mi_m1200/is_n17_v137/ai_8988319)

As concern builds over the threat of global warming, scientists are trying to understand why
atmospheric levels of methane, a greenhouse gas, have more than doubled in the last two centuries.
Researchers in the early 1980s suggested termites may deserve partial blame for the increase,
but a comprehensive study downplays their role. “Although the uncertainties are still very large,
the weight of the scientific evidence is shifting toward the conclusion that termites are not an
important global sources of methane," report M. Aslam K. Khalil and R.A. Rasmussen at the
Oregon Graduate Center in Beaverton along with Australian colleagues. They describe their work in
the March 20 JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. The researchers measured gases
emitted by six termite species in Australia and reviewed the published data concerning how much
food termites consume. They estimate termites worldwide emit about 12 X [10.sup.12] grams per
year of methane, which amounts to about 2 percent of the methane released by all global sources
each year. This number agrees with results from lab measurements and a field study in Africa. In 1982, researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric
Research in Boulder, Colo., sparked the debate over termites when they reported estimates based on laboratory work that termites emit 150 X [10.sup.12] grams each
year, which would constitute about 30 percent of the world's annual methane emissions. They also suggested that human activities such as deforestation have boosted
. Khalil says the earlier study overestimated the
termite populations, which could explain part of the rise in methane concentrations
amount of food consumed by termites each year and did not take into account methane
absorption by the ground near their mounds, a fact discovered only during field experiments.
According to Khalil, the methane buildup in the atmosphere stems not from a population explosion
in termites but from increasing numbers of rice fields, cattle and sheep.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 45
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A2: “Solar Variations”


( ) Their “sunspots” arguments are wrong- solar variation can’t be the cause for
warming- only greenhouse gases could cause the uniform temperature changes

U. Cubasch 11/24/97 “Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate
with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model”
http://www.springerlink.com/content/ujxgvmuknjbej5w9/

Two simulations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation model have been carried
out to study the potential impact of solar variability on climate. The Hoyt and Schatten estimate
of solar variability from 1700 to 1992 has been used to force the model. Results indicate that the
near-surface temperature simulated by the model is dominated by the long periodic solar
fluctuations (Gleissberg cycle), with global mean temperatures varying by about 0.5 K. Further
results indicate that solar variability and an increase in greenhouse gases both induce to a first
approximation a comparable pattern of surface temperature change, i.e., an increase of the land-sea
contrast. However, the solar-induced warming pattern in annual means and summer is more
centered over the subtropics, compared to a more uniform warming associated with the
increase in greenhouse gases. The observed temperature rise over the most recent 30 and 100
years is larger than the trend in the solar forcing simulation during the same period, indicating a
strong likelihood that, if the model forcing and response is realistic, other factors have contributed to
the observed warming. Since twhich onehe pattern of the recent observed warming agrees
better with the greenhouse warming pattern than with the solar variability response, it is likely
that one of these factors is the increase of the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 46
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A2: China
China will model the U.S. on global warming

Timothy Gardner, October 2 2007, “Experts Say China Would Follow U.S. Lead On Climate”,
Correspondent Energy and Environment, (http://www.linkedin.com/pub/3/895/144)

China would soon follow the U.S. lead if Washington agrees to tackle its emissions in the next
few years because China's government takes the threat of global warming more seriously than
the United States does, a climate expert said on Tuesday. "My impression is that the national
government -- top level ministry officials -- in China regard the threats of global warming to
their country with a much higher level of seriousness than their counterparts do here in the
United States," said David Hawkins of the environmental group National Resources Defense
Council. Hawkins, head of the group's climate center, spoke by telephone to the Reuters
Environment Summit in New York. If the United States agrees to cut emissions deeply with a
baseline that gets tougher over time, it would spur U.S. manufacturers to build low-emissions
technologies like alternative energy and coal plants that store carbon dioxide underground. It
could then market those technologies to the world, forcing China to act. "The biggest carrot is
to have the U.S. to take a leadership role," he said. "Then countries like China are going to say,
'What does the United States know that we don't know?' and agree to their own cuts," said
Hawkins. Hawkins is based in Washington but visits China often, meeting with government
ministers heading the country's science and technology, environmental protection, agriculture, and
development reform agencies. He said they are very concerned about the possibility that global
warming will lead to drastic cuts in water for agriculture.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 47
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A2: Other Countries Key (1/6)


Other nations adopt U.S. environmental policies

Brookings Institute, June 2006, “Case Closed: The Debate About Global Warming Is Over”,
(http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/easterbrook/20060517.pdf)

True, previous air pollution problems have been national or regional in character; greenhouse
gases are a global issue whose resolution must involve all nations. But this does not mean
greenhouse gases cannot be overcome using the same tools that have worked against other air
pollution problems. In the last 30 years, the United States has substantially reduced air
pollution—during the same period the United States population and economy have both
boomed. If air pollution can be reduced even as a national economy grows, there is good
reason to hope that greenhouse gases can be reduced even as the global economy grows. Nor
do developing nations need an "era of pollution" in order to industrialize. In the 19th century, it
was true that air pollution and industrialization were inexorably linked: then, the unregulated
smokestack was essential to manufacturing advancement. Today power plants and factories are
being built that emit only a fraction of the air pollution of their predecessors—and efficient, low-
polluting facilities tend to have the highest rates of return. Already China to a great extent and
India to a lesser extent are switching to low-pollution approaches to power production and
manufacturing, observing that low-polluting industry not only is good for the environment but for
the bottom line. Fifteen years ago, smog was rising at dangerous rates in Mexico City. Mexico
adopted anti-pollution technology and now Mexico City smog is in decline, even as the city
booms economically and its population grows. Such examples suggest that the air pollution
controls that have worked so well in the United States can be expanded to the world. And if
the whole world can act against air pollution, maybe the whole world can act against
greenhouse gas.

Other nations model U.S. environmental policies

Brookings Institute, June 2006, “Case Closed: The Debate About Global Warming Is Over”,
(http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/easterbrook/20060517.pdf)

The Kyoto Protocol might not have been right for the United States, but a mandatory program of
greenhouse gas reduction is. For decades, the United States has led the world in technology
development, economic vision and pollution control. Right now the catalytic converter and
"reformulated" gasoline, anti-smog technology invented here, are beginning to spread broadly
throughout developing nations. If America were to impose greenhouse gas reductions on a
solely domestic basis—keep the United Nations out of this—it is likely that the United States
would soon develop the technology that would light the way for the rest of the world on
reducing global warming. The United States was the first country to overcome smog (ahead of the
European Union by years), the first to overcome acid rain, and we should be first to overcome
global warming. Once we have shown the world that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced
without economic harm, other nations will follow our lead voluntarily. The United States
needs to start now with mandatory greenhouse gas reductions not out of guilt or shame, but
because it is a fight we can win.
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A2: Other Countries Key (2/6)


The United States has a moral responsibility to act against global warming

Eileen Claussen, October 5 2006, “Climate Change: The State of The Question and The Search For The
Answer”, President of the PEW center for climate change, (http://www.pewclimate.org/press_
room/speech_transcripts/stjohns2of2.cfm)

But Africa produces just 2 to 3 percent of worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases. The United States, by
contrast, with just 5 percent of the global population, is responsible for more than 20 percent of worldwide
emissions. And there is also the issue of cumulative emissions. The fact is that climate change is a problem
that has been decades in the making as carbon dioxide and other gases have accumulated in the atmosphere
over time. These gases have a long life and can remain in the atmosphere for decades or even centuries.
And, in the span of the last century or so, it was the United States and other already developed countries that
were producing the lion’s share of these emissions. Looking only at carbon dioxide, the United States was
responsible for more than 30 percent of global emissions between 1850 and 2000. The comparable
figure for China: just 7 or 8 percent. Even considering the high rates of projected growth in China’s and
India’s emissions, the cumulative contributions of developed and developing countries to climate change will
not reach parity until sometime between 2030 and 2065. Clearly all of the major emitting countries need to
be a part of the solution to climate change. But saying that all of today’s big emitters should be equally
responsible for reducing their emissions is like going to a restaurant and having a nice dinner and then
running into a friend who joins you for coffee. And, when the check comes, you make your friend who only
had the coffee split the cost of the entire dinner. Yes, developing countries need to do their part, but there is
no denying that the developed world, including the United States, has a moral and ethical responsibility
to act first. We also have a responsibility to help developing nations adapt to a warming world. No matter
what we do, some amount of global warming already is built into the climate system. There will be impacts;
there already are impacts. And it is people living in poverty in the developing world who will face the most
serious consequences. So it really comes down, again, to a question of responsibility. What is our
responsibility? And it is not just our responsibility to our fellow man (or woman). There is also our
responsibility to the natural world, to the earth. Beyond human societies, the natural world also will suffer
from the effects of climate change. In fact, we are already seeing changes in the natural world due to climate
change. Coral reefs are at risk because of warmer and more acidic ocean waters. Polar bears are threatened
by declines in sea ice. Species already are disappearing because of new diseases connected to climate change.
In short, climate change holds the potential of inflicting severe damage on the ecosystems that support all life
on earth. So why, then, have we failed to take responsibility? Why has there been such an absence of
political will?

Cutting U.S. emissions key

CTA, September 29 2004, “Gasoline Cost Externalities Associated With Global Climate Change”, International
Center for Technology Assessment, (http://www.icta.org/doc/global%20warming%20rpg%20update.pdf)

Estimates of the cost of global warming used for this report are based only on U.S. emissions and the
resulting domestic externalities. Obviously this narrow estimate of the costs of climate change ignores the
significant impact of U.S. emissions on the rest of the world. The United States produces approximately
a quarter of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, even though the country’s population is less than 5% of
the world total. Automobiles and other gasoline-powered vehicles account for more than 21% of U.S. CO2
emissions5 and more than 17% of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.6 If China, for
example, with almost one quarter of the world’s population and already in the grip of a severe environmental
pollution crisis, were to match the per capita gasoline usage of the United States, the implications for global
warming would be catastrophic. Americans continue to waste energy and emit greenhouse gases as if
there were no climatic or environmental costs. U.S. political leaders have failed to recognize the long-term
implications and communicate with industry and the public in order to formulate
responsible energy and transportation policies.
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A2: Other Countries Key (3/6)


Developing Countries model U.S. action on climate change

Annie Petsonk, March 27 2007, “Climate Change- International Issues, Engaging Developing Countries”, J.D.,
Harvard Law School. Adjunct professor, George Washington University and University of Maryland law schools
(1994-present); trial attorney in Policy, Legislation and Special Litigation, US Department of Justice (1990-1995);
environmental law unit, United Nations Environment Programme (1986-1989),
(http://energycommerce.house.gov/cmte_mtgs/110-eaq-hrg.032707.Petsonk-testimony.pdf)

A number of large-emitting developing countries have taken, or are considering, steps to slow the
increase in their GHG emissions: The world's second-largest emitter, China, has adopted more stringent
fuel economy standards for passenger cars than has the United States. China has also adopted a
renewable energy goal, committed significant funding for renewable energy. The world's fourth largest
emitter, Brazil, has converted most of its passenger car fleet to sugar-cane ethanol. And it has reduced
deforestation over 50% in the last two years, in part through conservation measures and environmental law
enforcement. That's important: 70% of Brazil's emissions come from deforestation in the Amazon. But most
developing countries are reluctant to take further climate protection steps unless and until the United
States does. And most are certainly not likely to take more stringent or faster steps than the U.S. does.

Congressional action on climate change is modeled throughout the world

Annie Petsonk, March 27 2007, “Climate Change- International Issues, Engaging Developing Countries”, J.D.,
Harvard Law School. Adjunct professor, George Washington University and University of Maryland law schools
(1994-present); trial attorney in Policy, Legislation and Special Litigation, US Department of Justice (1990-1995);
environmental law unit, United Nations Environment Programme (1986-1989),
(http://energycommerce.house.gov/cmte_mtgs/110-eaq-hrg.032707.Petsonk-testimony.pdf)

When Congress enacts a climate bill, the rest of the world will be watching closely. In effect, when
Congress acts, America will lead by example. Such leadership is urgently needed. The international
climate treaty talks have stalled because of the unwillingness of the Executive Branch to engage. Time
is running out. America's trading partners are recognizing that the only way the United States will act to cut
emissions in the narrow time window for averting dangerous climate change, is if the Congress acts. Sensible
Congressional action could yield great benefits for America's environment and economy, and provide a
template for the world. As Congress moves to cap and cut America's GHG emissions, there are a number of
steps Congress can take that can have a significant positive effect on developing countries' consideration
of, and implementation of, steps to reduce their own emissions. Taking these in coordination with other
developed countries will increase their effectiveness. But Congress should not wait for other nations to
act. Instead, by taking the lead, Congress can show all nations how to break the climate logjam and
correct the mis-steps that led to the logjam in the first place.
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A2: Other Countries Key (4/6)


The U.S. is the worlds environmental leader: China and India will model the U.S.

John F. Turner, August 2003, “Providing International Leadership: Responsible Environmental Policy”, Assistant
Secretary for Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs heads U.S. Department of State
programs and activities concerning the environment, climate change, oceans affairs, and science and
technology,(http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/itps/0803/ijpe/pj81turner.htm)

President Bush has committed the United States to innovative new approaches to climate change. The
Bush administration is pursuing measures that will reduce domestic greenhouse gas emissions, relative to the
size of the economy, by 18 percent over the next decade. This strategy will demonstrate U.S. leadership by
slowing emissions growth and, as the science justifies, stopping and then reversing that growth. During the
past 14 years, the United States has led the world in climate change research, investing more than $20
billion. To maintain U.S. leadership, the Bush administration is working with partner countries on
clean energy technologies, including hydrogen, fuel cells, clean coal technology, and carbon capture and
storage. The United States continues to work to advance the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate
Change, which is intended to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous
human interference with the climate. The United States is also a leading supporter of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, the pre-eminent international body dealing with scientific, technical, and socio-
economic information on climate change. Since June 2001, the State Department has spearheaded U.S.
partnerships on climate change with key countries, covering issues from climate change science to
energy and sequestration technologies to policy approaches. Partners include Australia, Canada, China,
seven Central American countries, India, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, the Russian
Federation, and the European Union. And on July 31 the State Department hosted an Earth
Observation Summit. This ministerial-level meeting initiated new efforts to develop an integrated Earth
observation system in order to improve understanding of global environmental and economic
challenges. Prosperous societies are able to devote more of their resources to environmental protection, both
to protect human health and preserve natural habitats. The United States will continue its efforts to
promote a sustainable future for the Earth's people, its wildlife, and the many beautiful and vital
ecosystems that are threatened by reckless exploitation. We will not lose sight of environmental goals as we
develop the whole range of our policies around the world.

The world models U.S. environmental policies

John F. Turner, August 2003, “Providing International Leadership: Responsible Environmental Policy”, Assistant
Secretary for Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs heads U.S. Department of State
programs and activities concerning the environment, climate change, oceans affairs, and science and
technology,(http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/itps/0803/ijpe/pj81turner.htm)

The United States plays a leading role in international environmental policy. We are active in efforts to
control toxic chemicals around the world. We have led the way in integrating environmental and
economic policy, in part by incorporating environmental agreements into free trade agreements. The United
States is active in efforts to preserve critical habitats, and in the protection of endangered and threatened
species. Around the world, in more ways than can be summarized here, we work to keep development,
trade, and environmental protection on track. Our goal is a more prosperous world, one healthy for its
people, with room for the sustainable ecosystems that provide habitats for people and wildlife around the
globe. The United States is a key player in international initiatives to reduce the use of toxic chemicals
and pesticides. It has led efforts to conclude the Stockholm Convention, a treaty to deal with persistent
organic pollutants (POPs). POPs are toxic chemicals that persist in the environment for long periods, and are
transported globally through the atmosphere and oceans. The United States and many developed countries
have phased out the most problematic POPs, but they continue to be used in large quantities elsewhere.
The Stockholm Convention calls for a virtual phase-out of the 12 most hazardous POPs, plus others that may
be listed in the future. This administration has attached a high priority to ratification of the Stockholm
Convention and is working hard to obtain the advice and consent of the U.S. Senate and the enactment of its
implementing legislation.
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A2: Other Countries Key (5/6)


U.S. is key to CO2 emissions

Eileen Claussen, and Elliot Diringer, Spring 2007, “A New Climate Treaty”,
(http://www.harvardir.org/articles/1594/), Eileen Claussen is President of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.
Elliot Diringer is Director of International Strategies of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

Any new treaty will be environmentally effective and politically feasible only to the degree that it
successfully engages and binds all of the world’s major economies. Coming to terms with cost and equity
while also bridging the gap between developed and developing is an extraordinary diplomatic challenge.
Meeting it will require fresh thinking and approaches, a genuine readiness to compromise and a collective
political will that, while perhaps emerging, is by no means assured. What is needed above all right now is
US leadership, for no country bears greater responsibility for climate change, nor has greater capacity
to catalyze a global response. Responsibility is measured most directly in terms of emissions, and it
should surprise no one that history’s greatest economic power is also the world’s largest greenhouse gas
emitter. By the same token, the tremendous enterprise, prosperity, and technological prowess that have
contributed so heavily to the atmospheric burden uniquely qualify the United States to lead a low-
carbon transition. Indeed, no nation has done more to advance scientific understanding of the causes and
consequences of global warming. But thus far, the US contribution to the global effort largely ends there.

Developing nations will model a U.S. carbon market

Annie Petsonk, March 27 2007, “Climate Change- International Issues, Engaging Developing Countries”, J.D.,
Harvard Law School. Adjunct professor, George Washington University and University of Maryland law schools
(1994-present); trial attorney in Policy, Legislation and Special Litigation, US Department of Justice (1990-1995);
environmental law unit, United Nations Environment Programme (1986-1989),
(http://energycommerce.house.gov/cmte_mtgs/110-eaq-hrg.032707.Petsonk-testimony.pdf)

The most important step for Congress is to cap and cut U.S. total GHG emissions in the range
recommended by the U.S. Climate Action Partnership (US-CAP), with broad flexibility for firms to choose
how to meet their targets, and vigorous enforcement if they don't. That's the kind of emissions trading
market that allows American firms to play to their strengths . their capacity to innovate, to compete on a
level playing field, and to profit by finding better, cheaper, faster ways to cut emissions. That’s the kind of
program that would give the United States the credibility to demand comparable action by our trading
partners. In fact, by enacting this kind of framework in 2007-2008, Congress could leverage it into
becoming the new template for the international climate treaty talks in 2009-10.Timing is important.
International carbon markets offer great potential for innovative U.S. companies to sell low-emitting
technologies and processes. Congress should move swiftly to enact cap-and-trade, in order to open
opportunities for U.S. firms in global carbon markets, and to avoid having U.S.firms miss out on carbon
market participation. If Congress enacts cap-and-trade legislation in 2007-2008, the federal agencies could
finish the implementing regulations in time for our market to link smoothly to the post-2012 international
market. Delaying enactment beyond the 110th Congress, however, could delay our market's launch beyond
2013, potentially disrupting the international carbon markets and depriving U.S. firms of important carbon
market opportunities. More importantly, if Congress enacts this kind of framework and developing
nations do follow suit with similar caps on their total GHG emissions, it should be possible to limit the
total amount of warming from pre-industrial levels through to atmospheric stabilization, to roughly
2.0° Centigrade - below what many regard as dangerous warming
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A2: Other Countries Key (6/6)


U.S. leadership is key to prevent warming impacts

James Hansen, June 23 2008, “Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near”, Dr. James E. Hansen, a
physicist by training, directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, a laboratory of the Goddard Space
Flight Center and a unit of the Columbia University Earth Institute, Briefing to the House Select Committee on
Energy Independence & Global Warming, (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TwentyYearsLater_20080623.pdf)

The difference is that now we have used up all slack in the schedule for actions needed to defuse the global
warming time bomb. The next President and Congress must define a course next year in which the
United States exerts leadership commensurate with our responsibility for the present dangerous
situation. Otherwise it will become impractical to constrain atmospheric carbon dioxide, the greenhouse
gas produced in burning fossil fuels, to a level that prevents the climate system from passing tipping
points that lead to disastrous climate changes that spiral dynamically out of humanity’s control.
Changes needed to preserve creation, the planet on which civilization developed, are clear. But the changes
have been blocked by special interests, focused on short-term profits, who hold sway in Washington and
other capitals. I argue that a path yielding energy independence and a healthier environment is, barely,
still possible. It requires a transformative change of direction in Washington in the next year.

The U.S. must reduce its fossil fuel use- developing nations will follow

James Hansen, June 23 2008, “Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near”, Dr. James E. Hansen, a
physicist by training, directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, a laboratory of the Goddard Space
Flight Center and a unit of the Columbia University Earth Institute, Briefing to the House Select Committee on
Energy Independence & Global Warming, (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TwentyYearsLater_20080623.pdf)

The fossil-industry maintains its strangle-hold on Washington via demagoguery, using China and other
developing nations as scapegoats to rationalize inaction. In fact, we produced most of the excess carbon in the
air today, and it is to our advantage as a nation to move smartly in developing ways to reduce emissions. As
with the ozone problem, developing countries can be allowed limited extra time to reduce emissions. They will
cooperate: they have much to lose from climate change and much to gain from clean air and reduced
dependence on fossil fuels. We must establish fair agreements with other countries. However, our own tax and
dividend should start immediately. We have much to gain from it as a nation, and other countries will copy our
success. If necessary, import duties on products from uncooperative countries can level the playing field, with
the import tax added to the dividend pool. Democracy works, but sometimes churns slowly. Time is short. The 2008
election is critical for the planet. If Americans turn out to pasture the most brontosaurian congressmen, if
Washington adapts to address climate change, our children and grandchildren can still hold great
expectations.
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Energy Key (1/2)


Energy use is responsible for warming

Michael T. Klare, February 15 2007,“Global Warming: Its All About The Energy”,(
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/3998),Teacher at Amherst College, Smith College, Mount Holyoke College, and the
University of Massachusetts, Amherst professor of Peace and World Security Studies author of Resource Wars and
Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Petroleum Dependency

When talk of global warming is introduced into the public discourse, as in Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth,” it is generally
characterized as an environmental problem, akin to water pollution, air pollution, pesticide abuse, and so on. This implies
that it can be addressed – like those other problems – through a concerted effort to “clean up” our resource-utilization
behavior, by substituting “green” products for ordinary ones, by restricting the release of toxic substances, and so on. But
global warming is not an “environmental” problem in the same sense as these others – it is an energy
problem, first and foremost. Almost 90% of the world’s energy is supplied through the combustion of
fossil fuels, and every time we burn these fuels to make energy we release carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere; carbon dioxide, in turn, is the principal component of the “greenhouse gases” (GHGs) that
are responsible for warming the planet. Energy use and climate change are two sides of the same coin.

Only changing our forms of energy can solve for global warming

Michael T. Klare, February 15 2007,“Global Warming: Its All About The Energy”,(
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/3998),Teacher at Amherst College, Smith College, Mount Holyoke College, and the
University of Massachusetts, Amherst professor of Peace and World Security Studies author of Resource Wars and
Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Petroleum Dependency

Consider the situation in the United States. According to the Department of Energy (DoE), carbon dioxide
emissions constitute 84% of this nation’s greenhouse gas emissions. Of all U.S. carbon dioxide emissions,
most – 98% – are emitted as a result of the combustion of fossil fuels, which currently provide
approximately 86% of America’s total energy supply. This means that energy use and carbon dioxide
emissions are highly correlated: the more energy we consume, the more CO2 we release into the
atmosphere, and the more we contribute to the buildup of GHGs. Because Americans show no inclination to reduce their
consumption of fossil fuels – but rather are using more and more of them all the time – one can foresee no future reduction in U.S. emissions of GHGs. According to the DoE, the
United States is projected to consume 35% more oil, coal, and gas combined in 2030 than in 2004; not surprisingly, the nation’s emissions of carbon dioxide are expected to rise by
approximately the same percentage over this period. If these projections prove accurate, total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 will reach a staggering 8.1 billion metric tons, of
which 42% will be generated through the consumption of oil (most of it in automobiles, vans, trucks, and buses), 40% by the burning of coal (principally to produce electricity), and
. No other activity in the United States will
the remainder by the combustion of natural gas (mainly for home heating and electricity generation)
come even close in terms of generating GHG emissions. What is true of the United States is also true of other industrialized and
industrializing nations, including China and India. Although a few may rely on nuclear power or energy renewables to a greater extent than the United States, all continue to consume
fossil fuels and to emit large quantities of carbon dioxide, and so all are contributing to the acceleration of global climate change. According to the DoE, global emissions of carbon
dioxide are projected to increase by a frightening 75% between 2003 and 2030, from 25.0 to 43.7 billion metric tons. People may talk about slowing the rate of climate change, but if
. What this tells us
these figures prove accurate, the climate will be much hotter in coming decades and this will produce the most damaging effects predicted by the IPCC
is that the global warming problem cannot be separated from the energy problem. If the human
community continues to consume more fossil fuels to generate more energy, it inevitably will increase the
emission of carbon dioxide and so hasten the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, thus causing
irreversible climate change. Whatever we do on the margins to ameliorate this process – such as planting
trees to absorb some of the carbon emissions or slowing the rate of deforestation – will have only negligible
effect so long as the central problem of fossil-fuel consumption is left unchecked.
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Energy Key (2/2)


Alternative Energy key to preventing warmings worst impacts
National Audubon Society, 2008, “Global Warming: Get The Facts”, Audubon's mission is to conserve and
restore natural ecosystems, (http://www.audubon.org/globalWarming/GetTheFacts.php)
No matter what we do now, global warming will continue and will cause serious changes in our climate.
However, prompt and dramatic action is likely to slow its rate of increase and to avoid some of the
worst potential consequences. Experts say the most important action is to move away from burning
massive amounts of fossil fuels, especially coal and oil, and to aggressively pursue nonpolluting energy
options. Every time we burn fossil fuels to drive our cars, heat our homes, run our factories, light our cities,
and more, we release carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Our greenhouse
gas emissions have increased in recent decades because of both human population growth and the rising rates
of affluence and consumption. Larger houses, bigger and faster cars and SUVs and more airplane travel all
mean more energy consumption. In fact, the United States, with only about 5% of the global population,
contributes about 25 percent of greenhouse gas emissions because our fuel consumption is so high.

Replacing Energy, not stopping deforestation, is key to combat warming


Reuters, July 9 2001, “Carbon Sinks Won’t Solve Global Warming—Only Solution Is To Cut CO2 Emissions”,
(http://www.mapcruzin.com/news/cc070901a.htm)
Forests and farmlands cannot be relied on to soak up environmentally damaging greenhouse gases, and cuts
in emissions are the only long-term way to reduce global warming, scientists said on today. A new report by Britain's
Royal Society said too little is known about how much farmlands and forests, so-called carbon sinks, can
absorb carbon dioxide (CO2), the main greenhouse gas, from the atmosphere. Carbon sinks will be a major issue in Bonn next week when
environmentalists and policy-makers resume international climate talks, which have been jeopardised by the withdrawal of the United States from the Kyoto
agreement on global warming. In its report,
the independent body of top scientists said better methods are needed to
verify the impact of carbon sinks on global warming. Reducing the amount of CO2 from burning fossil
fuels should be the main way to reduce global warming. "These carbon sinks are of rather limited size
and also will only work for a relatively short duration, a few decades. That means they can't make a
major contribution to reducing carbon emissions and solving the global warming problem," said Professor
John Shepherd, an author of the report. Carbon sinks and emissions trading, essentially a market for buying and selling the right to pollute, were the main stumbling blocks at
the failed United Nations conference on climate change in The Hague last year. The United States, Japan, Canada and Australia wanted more emphasis on carbon sinks in achieving
the CO2 emission cuts set in the 1997 Kyoto protocol on global warming. The pact commits developed nations to cutting emissions of CO2 by an average of just over five percent
from 1990 levels by 2012. Officials gathering in Bonn on July 16 for two weeks will try to get the talks back on track, despite the withdrawal of the United States earlier this year.
Shepherd, the director of Britain's Tyndall Centre for Climate Research, said carbon sinks were diverting the talks from the main issue which is cutting emissions. According to the
.
report, carbon sinks and soil absorb about 40 percent of CO2 emissions and could soak up as much as 45 percent But it added that the maximum that could be absorbed
would only be equivalent to a quarter of that needed by 2050 to prevent major rises in global temperature. "Our view is that the argument is being diverted
into what is really a rather unproductive area and people should get back to talking about carbon emission reductions at
source by use of renewable (fuels) and whatever else they think is necessary," said Shepherd. The scientists also warned that in the
future carbon sinks could become a source of CO2. They could release greenhouse gases, such as
methane. "The primary benefit of land carbon sinks is that they can be effective immediately and provide a financial incentive for the preservation and
sustainable use of forests and agriculture land," the report said. But the long-term solution must be cuts in CO2 emissions
through energy saving and replacing fossil fuels with renewable and nuclear energy.

Transition away from fossil fuels is key to solve warming


James Hansen, June 23 2008, “Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near”, Dr. James E. Hansen, a physicist by training, directs the NASA Goddard Institute
for Space Studies, a laboratory of the Goddard Space Flighenter and a unit of the Columbia University Earth Institute, Briefing to the House Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global
Warming, (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TwentyYearsLater_20080623.pdf)
Requirements to halt carbon dioxide growth follow from the size of fossil carbon reservoirs. Coal towers over oil and gas.
Phase out of coal use
except where the carbon is captured and stored below ground is the primary requirement for solving global warming. Oil is used
in vehicles where it is impractical to capture the carbon. But oil is running out. To preserve our planet we must also ensure
that the next mobile energy source is not obtained by squeezing oil from coal, tar shale or other fossil fuels. Fossil fuel
reservoirs are finite, which is the main reason that prices are rising. We must move beyond fossil fuels eventually. Solution
of the climate problem requires that we move to carbon-free energy promptly.
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Warming Not Inevitable


We’re not out of time to stop warming – we just need to stabilize emissions by 2015.

Pachauri 07 (Rajendra, IPCC chairman, “Presentation by Dr. R.K. Pachauri during the
Opening Session of the UN High Level Event on Climate Change – New York”, p. 2, 9/24,
http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/speeches.htm)
Projections for this century tell us that at the lower end of feasible trajectories, we have a best estimate of 1.8
degrees centigrade as the increase in temperature by the end of the century and at the upper end of feasible
scenarios we get 4 degrees centigrade. The inertia of the system that we have is such that climate change
would continue for decades and centuries even if we were to stabilize the concentration of gases that
are causing this problem today, which means that adaptation is inevitable. But let me emphasize that
adaptation alone will not do. We need to bring about mitigation actions to start in the short term even
when benefits may arrive in a few decades. And there are huge co-benefits from mitigation action in terms
of energy security, in terms of local environmental benefits. The cost of adaptation and impacts, I might
mention, will keep going up as the global temperature goes up. As far as mitigation is concerned the
costs are going to be much lower than what was anticipated earlier. If we stabilize the concentration of
these gases at 445 to 490 parts per million of CO2 equivalent which will give us an equilibrium increase,
limit the equilibrium increase to 2 to 2.4 degrees centigrade, that will cost the world less than 3 per cent of
the GDP in the year 2030. This means that the prosperity that we would normally achieve by 2030 may
be postponed by a few months at the most. And as the honorable Secretary General has told us, we have
up to 2015 if we want to stabilize at that level, after which we will have to ensure that emissions go
down substantially.

We have a little time to mitigate warming – any more delay will result in intense impacts.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis


Report”, 12/12-17, p. 44)
Efforts to mitigate GHG emissions to reduce the rate and magnitude of climate change need to account for
inertia in the climate and socio-economic systems. {SYR 3.2; WGI 10.3, 10.4, 10.7, SPM; WGIII 2.3.4}
After GHG concentrations are stabilised, the rate at which the global average temperature increases is
expected to slow within a few decades. Small increases in global average temperature could still be
expected for several centuries. Sea level rise from thermal expansion would continue for many centuries at a
rate that eventually decreases from that reached before stabilisation, due to ongoing heat uptake by oceans.
{SYR 3.2, WGI 10.3, 10.4, 10.7, SPM} Delayed emission reductions significantly constrain the
opportunities to achieve lower stabilisation levels and increase the risk of more severe climate change
impacts. Even though benefits of mitigation measures in terms of avoided climate change would take several
decades to materialise, mitigation actions begun in the short term would avoid locking in both long-lived
carbon intensive infrastructure and development pathways, reduce the rate of climate change and
reduce the adaptation needs associated with higher levels of warming. {WGII 18.4, 20.6, 20.7, SPM;
WGIII 2.3.4, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, SPM}
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A2: Pipeline (1/3)


It is not too late to act against global warming

Seth Borenstein, February 2 2007, “Global Warming Unstoppable, Report Says”, AP science writer,
(http://www.livescience.com/environment/070202_ap_gw_unstoppable.html)

"It's not too late,'' said Australian scientist Nathaniel Bindoff, a co-author of the authoritative
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report issued Friday. The worst can be prevented by acting
quickly to curb greenhouse gas emissions, he said. The worst could mean more than 1 million dead and
hundreds of billions of dollars in costs by 2100, said Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric
Research in Colorado, one of many study co-authors. He said that adapting will mean living with more
extreme weather such as severe droughts, more hurricanes and wildfires. "It's later than we think,'' said panel
co-chair Susan Solomon, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist who helped
push through the document's strong language. Solomon, who remains optimistic about the future, said it's
close to too late to alter the future for her children -- but maybe it's not too late for her grandchildren. The
report was the first of four to be released this year by the panel, which was created by the United Nations in
1988. It found: --Global warming is "very likely'' caused by man, meaning more than 90 percent certain.
That's the strongest expression of certainty to date from the panel. --If nothing is done to change
current emissions patterns of greenhouse gases, global temperature could increase as much as 11
degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.

Acting against warming now is key

Seth Borenstein, February 2 2007, “Global Warming Unstoppable, Report Says”, AP science writer,
(http://www.livescience.com/environment/070202_ap_gw_unstoppable.html)

Sea level rise could get worse after that. By 2100, if nothing is done to curb emissions, the melting of
Greenland's ice sheet would be inevitable and the world's seas would eventually rise by more than 20
feet, Bindoff said. That amount of sea rise would take centuries, said Andrew Weaver of the University of
Victoria in Canada, but "if you're in Florida or Louisiana, or much of western Europe or southeast Asia or
Bangladesh ... or Manhattan ... you don't want that,'' he said. The report spurred bleak reactions from world
leaders. "We are on the historic threshold of the irreversible,'' warned French President Jacques Chirac,
who called for an economic and political "revolution'' to save the planet. "While climate changes run like a
rabbit, world politics move like a snail: Either we accelerate or we risk a disaster,'' said Italy's
environment minister, Alfonso Pecoraro Scanio. And South Africa's Environmental Affairs Minister
Marthinus van Schalkwyk said failure to act would be "indefensible.'' In Washington, Bush administration officials praised the
report but said they still oppose mandatory cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. The problem can be addressed by better technology that will cut emissions, promote energy
conservation, and hasten development of non-fossil fuels, said Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman. About three-fourths of Americans say they expect global warming will get worse,
But doing nothing
according to a recent AP-AOL News poll. However, other recent polls have found they don't consider it a top priority for the U.S. government.
about global warming could mean up to a 10-degree Fahrenheit temperature rise by the end of the
century in the United States, said report co-author Jonathan Overpeck at the University of Arizona.
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A2: Pipeline (2/3)


We still have time to reduce emissions and stabilize the atmosphere

International Herald Tribune, December 13 2005, “Its Not Too Late”, (http://www.iht.com/articles
/2005/12/13/opinion/edhansen.php)

In the long run, satisfying energy needs while decreasing CO²emissions will require developing
renewable energies, sequestering CO²produced at power plants and perhaps a new generation of nuclear
power. But emissions can already be reduced now with improved energy efficiency. It is important that the
United States, as a leader in technology and as the largest producer of CO²in the world, take the
lead.In general, industrial emissions of CO²are declining. The problem is emissions from power plants
and vehicles. The solution in both cases depends on efficiency. We need to avoid building fossil fuel power
plants unless and until sequestration is a reality. For vehicles, efficiency is critical because of the rapidly
growing global number of vehicles. In the United States, even though the number of vehicles on the road
increases every year, we could stop increasing emissions by accepting even modest improvements in
efficiency of about 30 percent by 2030. This could be done with available technology, and there's ample
time to phase it in.The accrued benefit in 35 years, even without the introduction of hydrogen-powered
vehicles, is a savings of oil equal to more than seven times the estimated amount of oilin the Alaska National
Wildlife Refuge. Keeping the rise of global temperature below one degree Celsius is technically within
reach. Everything depends on an informed public to bolster the political will of leaders across this warming
globe.

Now is the key time to act to avoid warming’s impacts

International Herald Tribune, December 13 2005, “Its Not Too Late”, (http://www.iht.com/articles
/2005/12/13/opinion/edhansen.php)

The Earth's temperature, with rapid global warming over the past 30 years, is now passing through the
peak level of the Holocene, a period of relatively stable climate that has existed for more than 10,000 years.
Further warming of more than one degree Celsius will make the Earth warmer than it has been in a
million years. Business-as-usual scenarios, with fossil fuel (CO²) emissions continuing to increase at 2
percent per year as in the past decade, will yield additional warming of two or three degrees this
century. That implies practically a different planet. The Earth's climate is nearing, but has not passed,
a tipping point beyond which it will be impossible to avoid climate change with far-ranging
undesirable consequences. These include not only the loss of the Arctic as we know it, with all that
implies for wildlife and indigenous peoples, but losses on a much vaster scale due to rising seas. Ocean
levels will increase slowly at first, as losses at the fringes of Greenland and Antarctica due to accelerating ice
streams are nearly balanced by increased snowfall and ice-sheet thickening in the ice sheet interiors. But as
Greenland and West Antarctic ice is softened and lubricated by melt-water, and as buttressing ice shelves
disappear because of a warming ocean, the balance will tip toward the rapid disintegration of ice sheets. The
Earth's history suggests that with warming of two to three degrees, the new sea level will include not
only most of the ice from Greenland and West Antarctica, but a portion of East Antarctica, raising the sea
level by 25 meters, or 80 feet. Within a century, coastal dwellers will be faced with irregular flooding
associated with storms. They will have to continually rebuild above a transient water level. This grim
scenario can be halted if growth of greenhouse gas emissions is slowed in the first quarter of this
century. That requires two things: first, flattening out and then decreasing the rate of growth of CO²emissions, primarily through improvement in energy efficiency; second,
an absolute decrease in emissions of non-CO²gases that also affect warming, particularly methane and carbon monoxide, and therefore tropospheric ozone and black carbon (soot)
. The action must be prompt. Otherwise, CO²-producing infrastructures that may be built within
aerosols
a decade will make it impractical to keep further global warming under one degree. Of top concern is the large
number of coal-fired power plants that China, the United States and India are planning to build without CO²sequestration (the process whereby CO²is separated and stored in the
ground).
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A2: Pipeline (3/3)


Now is the key time for Congress to create the carbon market

Annie Petsonk, March 27 2007, “Climate Change- International Issues, Engaging Developing Countries”, J.D.,
Harvard Law School. Adjunct professor, George Washington University and University of Maryland law schools
(1994-present); trial attorney in Policy, Legislation and Special Litigation, US Department of Justice (1990-1995);
environmental law unit, United Nations Environment Programme (1986-1989),
(http://energycommerce.house.gov/cmte_mtgs/110-eaq-hrg.032707.Petsonk-testimony.pdf)

The atmospheric timetable is clear. The goal is averting dangerous climate change. Every delay
increases the risk that U.S. and/or developing country inaction will foreclose opportunities for averting
dangerous climate change. The carbon market timetable is also clear. Congress must get the U.S.carbon
market up and running fast enough to ensure that there are good opportunities for U.S. firms to
compete in the international carbon market. The existing international carbon market runs out in 2012.
The rules and the players for the post-2012 international carbon market are under discussion now. Even with
its flaws and uncertainties, the international carbon market is driving investment around the world into
low-emitting technologies and processes. Any disruption of that market risks adding, needlessly, to the
atmospheric burden ofGHG emissions, and depriving American firms of the opportunity to participate
in that market.

Acting now is key to American investment worldwide


Annie Petsonk, March 27 2007, “Climate Change- International Issues, Engaging Developing Countries”, J.D.,
Harvard Law School. Adjunct professor, George Washington University and University of Maryland law schools
(1994-present); trial attorney in Policy, Legislation and Special Litigation, US Department of Justice (1990-1995);
environmental law unit, United Nations Environment Programme (1986-1989),
(http://energycommerce.house.gov/cmte_mtgs/110-eaq-hrg.032707.Petsonk-testimony.pdf)

Enactment by the 110th Congress will send the signal to other nations in the international climate treaty
talks that they should, by 2009-2010, reach agreement on extending the global carbon market beyond
2012, working from the design template established by the Congress. It will encourage those nations to
include in their post-2012 framework a "linking" provision allowing our market to “dock in" to the
international market, thereby opening up enormous opportunities to bring American ingenuity,
American technology, and American expertise to bear on the GHG emissions challenge world-wide.
Enactment by the 110th will also send a powerful signal to high-emitting developing nations that
America is going ahead with cap-and-trade, and will look to them to follow suit swiftly, strengthening
our leverage in the negotiations that Congress instructs the Executive Branch to undertake.
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A2: Wavelength Saturation (1/2)

Argument is a lie- CO2 can absorb light on any wavelength

New scientist Magazine “Sweating it Out Together” April 15, 1995


http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg14619730.100-sweating-it-out-together.html

First, some readers ask if there are fundamental flaws in our understanding of the effects of
increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. They accept, of course, that the Earth's
surface reflects solar radiation, which is absorbed by gases in the air and re-emitted, warming the
atmosphere. This is the greenhouse effect. They accept, too, that CO2 plays a part in this by
absorbing radiation at wavelengths around 15 micrometres. But they point out that there is
already so much CO2 in the atmosphere that all the 15m radiation reflected by the Earth is
already being absorbed. Adding more CO2 cannot cause any more radiation to be absorbed so
worrying about further increases in CO2 in the atmosphere is a waste of time. Would that this
were so, for it would spare us all a lot of worry. Sadly, CO2 is a flexible molecule and absorbs
energy in other bands as well. These may be wavelengths where it absorbs little, or where there
is little radiation to absorb. No matter. There is such a vast amount of carbon dioxide in the air
that absorption even at these wavelengths is enough to warm the atmosphere. And these
wavelengths, unlike 15m, are not saturated. Researchers know this well and have taken
saturation into account in the calculations made for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.
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A2: Wavelength Saturation (2/2)


More evidence.
Weart, Spencer (Forestry Scientist) “The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect” http://aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm
January, 2008

In the 19th century, scientists realized that gases in the atmosphere cause a "greenhouse effect" which affects the
planet's temperature. These scientists were interested chiefly in the possibility that a lower level of carbon dioxide
gas might explain the ice ages of the distant past. At the turn of the century, Svante Arrhenius calculated that
emissions from human industry might someday bring a global warming. Other scientists dismissed his idea as faulty.
In 1938, G.S. Callendar argued that the level of carbon dioxide was climbing and raising global temperature, but
most scientists found his arguments implausible. It was almost by chance that a few researchers in the 1950s
discovered that global warming truly was possible. In the early 1960s, C.D. Keeling measured the level of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere: it was rising fast. Researchers began to take an interest, struggling to understand how the
level of carbon dioxide had changed in the past, and how the level was influenced by chemical and biological forces.
They found that the gas plays a crucial role in climate change, so that the rising level could gravely affect our future.
Like many Victorian natural philosophers, John Tyndall was fascinated by a great many questions. While he was
preparing an important treatise on "Heat as a Mode of Motion" he took time to consider geology. Tyndall had hands-
on knowledge of the subject, for he was an ardent Alpinist (in 1861 he made the first ascent of the Weisshorn).
Familiar with glaciers, he had been convinced by the evidence — hotly debated among scientists of his day — that
tens of thousands of years ago, colossal layers of ice had covered all of northern Europe. How could climate
possibly change so radically? One possible answer was a change in the composition of the Earth's atmosphere.
Beginning with work by Joseph Fourier in the 1820s, scientists had understood that gases in the atmosphere might
trap the heat received from the Sun. This was the effect that would later be called, by an inaccurate analogy, the
"greenhouse effect." The equations and data available to 19th-century scientists were far too poor to allow an
accurate calculation. Yet the physics was straightforward enough to show that a bare rock at the Earth's distance
from the Sun should be far colder than the Earth actually is. Tyndall set out to find whether there was in fact any gas
that could trap heat rays. In 1859, his careful laboratory work identified several gases that did just that. The most
important was simple water vapor (H2O). Also effective was carbon dioxide (CO2), although in the atmosphere the
gas is only a few parts in ten thousand. Just as a sheet of paper will block more light than an entire pool of clear
water, so the trace of CO2 altered the balance of heat radiation through the entire atmosphere. (For full explanation
of the science, follow the link at right to the essay on Simple Models of Climate.)(1)
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***Warming Bad: Indict/Prodict***


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IPCC Good Frontline (1/2)


( ) IPCC warming studies are legit: extensive peer reviewing prevents false reports

Jean-marc Jancovici 11/1/3“What is IPCC?”


http://www.manicore.com/anglais/documentation_a/greenhouse/IPCC.html

The official publications of the IPCC have for sole purpose to offer a synthesis of the scientific state of
the art, what includes both points that are considered well established and points that are still
considered (very) speculative by the authors, without forgetting the limits within which the exposed
results are valid. These publications result from a long debate between experts, who are the only ones
to know whether a given uncertainty prevents from giving a general conclusion or not. The general
assembly, where all the countries that have at least one competent scientist, has always approved
unanimously the proposed assessment reports. It is therefore legitimate to consider that all that is
consensual in the IPCC reports can be held as an established fact. This particularly includes :The CO2
concentration in the atmosphère is now 30% higher than during any time of the previous 400.000
years, increasing the CO2 concentration in the atmopshere will generate a climate change, that will
include an increase of the average near ground air temperature. It's the magnitude of the temperature
increase that remains - and will remain for long - an open debate, but not the fact that globally the
temperature will rise. Given this, what should we think of the various individuals that periodically throw
themselves in front of cameras or get headlines in the papers and contest "the scientific file" ? Here are a
couple of reflexions : First of all any assessment process conducted by the IPCC is opened to any scientist
that wishes to formulate a remark or submit a work, and this process is preciseley designed so that the debate
can happen between people who know what they are talking about, and not brought in front of a general
public that is not able to judge.

( ) The IPCC is peer reviewed by experts- they give the facts

Union of Concerned Scientists 5/24/7 (scientific advocacy organization, May 24 2007, “The IPCC: Who
Are They and Why Do Their Climate Reports Matter?”,
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/theipcc.
html#The_Peer_Review_Process)

The IPCC’s technical reports derive their credibility principally from an extensive, transparent, and
iterative peer review process that, as mentioned above, is considered far more exhaustive than that
associated with scientific journals. This is due to the number of reviewers, the breadth of their disciplinary
backgrounds and scientific perspectives, and the inclusion of independent “review editors” who certify that
all comments have been fairly considered and appropriately resolved by the authors. For example, see [2]. To
be as inclusive and open as possible, a balanced review effectively begins with the choice of lead authors. By
intentionally including authors who represent the full range of expert opinion, many areas of disagreement
can be worked out in discussions among the authors rather than waiting until the document is sent out for
review. The first round of review is conducted by a large number of expert reviewers—more than 2,500
for the entire AR4—who include scientists, industry representatives, and NGO experts with a wide
range of perspectives. Lead authors are required to consider all comments and incorporate those with
scientific merit—a process overseen by review editors (two per chapter) who have expertise in the specific
topic covered by a given chapter. All review comments are archived together with the authors’ responses
and/or resulting actions, and are available upon request. If major differences emerge, lead authors are
encouraged to organize a meeting with both the contributing authors and review editors to discuss and
resolve the differences. The goal is not to reach a potentially “watered-down” compromise that conceals
scientific uncertainties or real differences in expert opinion, but to produce a report of the highest
scientific integrity, reflecting the state of our understanding fairly and adequately.
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IPCC Good Frontline (2/2)


( ) IPCC tends to be conservative due to extensive editing; they are more likely to
underestimate

Angus 7 (Ian Angus, professor of humanities and political writer, April 5 2007, “The IPCC and
the Conservatism of Consensus”, http://climateandcapitalism.blogspot.com/2007/04/ipccand-
conservatism-of-consensus.html)

They couldn’t be more wrong. The IPCC is a conservative body, and the Summary is a conservative
document that doesn’t come close to describing how serious global warming might be. Unlike the
National Post’s editors, many writers who actually know something about science believe that the IPCC
has understated the problem. New Scientist, Feb. 9, 2007: “the IPCC's review process was so rigorous
that research deemed controversial, not fully quantified or not yet incorporated into climate models
was excluded. The benefit — that there is now little room left for sceptics — comes at what many see as a
dangerous cost: many legitimate findings have been frozen out.” Scientific American, April 2007: “By
excluding statements that provoked disagreement and adhering strictly to data published in
peerreviewed journals, the IPCC has generated a conservative document that may underestimate the
changes that will result from a warming world, much as its 2001 report did.”
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Neg Authors Bad – Laundry List


( ) Neg authors are paid off and have no scientific standing (Idso, Balling, Singer, and
Michaels)

Gelbspan, long time science reporter and winner of the Pulitzer Prize, 2004
(Ross, Boiling Point, p. 33-6)

ExxonMobil's new public relations charade did little to conceal its real intentions. By 2001, ExxonMobil
had replaced the coal industry as the major funder of the most prominent and visible "greenhouse
skeptics." By 2003, ExxonMobil was giving more than $1 million a year to an array of ideological,
right-wing organizations opposing action on climate change-including the Competitive Enterprise
Institute, Frontiers of Freedom, the George C. Marshall I Institute, the American Council for Capital
Formation Center for Policy Research, and the American Legislative Exchange Council.
In its effort to sabotage the unprecedented scientific consensus of the IPCC, ExxonMobil has basically
picked up where the coal industry left off. During the 1990s, that effort had been spearheaded by Fred
Palmer, who, around the time of the Bush election, was hired as chief lobbyist for Peabody Energy. Prior
to his hiring by Peabody Palmer headed up the Western Fuels Association, a $400-million coal
consortium that had funded a tiny handful of industry-funded "greenhouse skeptics" who had long
been dismissed by the mainstream scientific community. Throughout the 1990s, Palmer directed an
extensive and extremely successful public relations offensive funded by the coal industry that used such
prominent "greenhouse skeptics" as Fred Singer, Pat Michaels, Sherwood Idso,and Robert Balling,
among others. One campaign, which sent three of these "skeptics" around the country to do media in-
terviews, was crafted, according to its strategy papers, "to reposition global warming as theory rather
than fact" and, more specifically, was designed to target "older, less-educated men ... and young low-
income women" in districts that get their electricity from coal and preferably have a member on the House Energy Committee, according to the
strategy papers for the campaign. Over the last ten years, those skeptics received more than a million dollars, either directly or indirectly, from coal and oil
interests. Their strategy was quite simple-continue to raise doubts about the science in order to preempt any public demand for action. Their funding by the
fossil fuel lobby was never disclosed publicly until it was published in The Heat Is On in 1997. (The issue of financial disclosure is not a small one.
Industry-funded research can be neutral-and it can be good or bad. But disclosure is critical so that the work in question can be reviewed with an eye to
commercial bias. If, for instance, a medical researcher's work is funded by a pharmaceutical company, that funding must be declared in the tag line as a
condition of publication. Unfortunately, those same guidelines do not apply to climate science. And-most damning-few journalists who have written about
this issue have ever bothered to ask about funding.) What
is especially telling about the industry-funded "greenhouse
skeptics" is their lack of standing in the scientific community. In a review of Michaels's work, Tom
M.L. Wigley, a preeminent climate modeler at the National Center for Atmospheric Research,
concluded it was so flawed that not only would it fail to pass the scrutiny of qualified climate scientists,
it would not even be accepted for peer review. As for Singer, he has been unable to publish anything in
the peer-reviewed literature in the last twenty years except for one technical comment. Singer's
recklessness transcends his deeply flawed scientific pronouncements. It involves at least one public lie
about his own funding. In early 2001, Singer was accused of hav ing his work funded by the oil industry. In response, Singer wrote in a
letter to the Washington Post that he had not received any oil industry money for at least twenty years when he had done a consulting job for the
industry. In fact, Singer received at least $10,000 and as much as $75,000 from ExxonMobil in 1998 alone, according to information on the oil giant's
own Web site. (Shortly after that information was published in the Nation, ExxonMobil withdrew the page from its Web site. Overall,
however, the success of the campaign of disinformation by the fossil fuel lobby on the public and on policymakers in the United States is striking. One
proof of the success of that campaign is reflected by two polls done by Newsweek magazine. Back in 1991, 35 percent of people surveyed by Newsweek
said they thought global warming was a very serious problem. By 1996-even though the science had become far more robust and the IPCC had
declared that humans are, indeed, changing the climate-that 35 percent had shrunk to 22 percent, largely as a result of the fossil fuel lobby's deceptive
public relations campaign. That record of success was clearly not lost on the Luntz group. One section of the notorious Luntz memo counsels the
president: "The most important principle in any discussion of global warming is your commitment to sound science. Americans unanimously
believe all environmental rules and regulations should be based on sound science and common sense. Similarly our confidence in the ability of
science and technology to solve our nation's ills is second to none. Both perceptions will work in your favor if properly cultivated." Sure
enough, the most prominent new effort by the skeptics to discredit the findings of mainstream scientists
surfaced in the spring of 2003 in the form of a study authored by Sallie Baliunas and Willie Soon at the
Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and published in an obscure journal, Climate Research.
The paper was coauthored by Craig Idso and Sherwood Idso, whose Center for the Study of Carbon
Dioxide was long funded by the coal industry and more recently supported by ExxonMobil.
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A2: “Singer”
( ) Singer denies receiving money from energy industries, but the evidence against his is
overwhelming

Oriana Zill de Granados 11/23/6 “The doubters of global warming: profiles of the skeptics”
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/reports/skeptics.html

Dr. Singer has written extensively about his doubts about global warming science and is the author of
the Leipzig Declaration signed by many skeptics. He has also published his doubts about the links between
second hand smoke and lung cancer and between UV rays and skin cancer. Affiliations & Funding: Dr.
Singer publicly denies receiving funding from energy industry sources, but he has acknowledged
previously being a paid consultant for several oil companies. In addition, his organization -- the Science and
Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) -- has received multiple grants from ExxonMobil, according to a
review of Exxon's own financial documents and Greenpeace's Exxonsecrets.org. That site also shows
that many of the other organizations with which Singer works -- Frontiers of Freedom, the Cato
Institute, National Center for Policy Analysis -- have received large grants from Exxon as well.

( ) Singer was paid off by ExxonMobil to deny the existence of warming

Jim Hoggan 6/28/6 “No apology is owed Dr. S. Fred Singer, and none will be forthcoming”
http://www.desmogblog.com/no-apology-is-owed-dr-s-fred-singer-and-none-will-be-forthcoming

For example, on Feb. 21, 2001, Dr. Singer wrote to the Washington Post, saying: “As for full disclosure: My
résumé clearly states that I consulted for several oil companies on the subject of oil pricing, some 20 years
ago, after publishing a monograph on the subject. “My connection to oil during the past decade is as a
Wesson Fellow at the Hoover Institution; the Wesson money derives from salad oil.” At the time that Dr.
Singer wrote this letter, ExxonMobil was listing him on their website as a recipient of US $10,000 in
direct funding and as a participant in an event to which ExMo contributed $65,000. Our colleague Ross
Gelbspan reported all this in The Nation in an article that can be found here. This is a stark illustration of
what we are up against in the climate change "debate." On one hand you have the world's most
accomplished and reputable scientists - more than 2,000 of whom have submitted research to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - carefully weighing every pronouncement for accuracy and
subjecting all of their research to peer-review before announcing it publicly. These people agree,
unreservedly, that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity. On the other hand,
you have a huge and expensive public relations campaign denying that scientific consensus. This
campaign is largely financed with money from energy companies like ExxonMobil, which is then lightly
laundered through "think tanks" like the Alexis de Tocqueville Institution or the Competitive Enterprise
Institute or through industry front groups like Dr. Singer's own Science & Environmental Policy Project. The
money is then passed along to "experts" like Dr. Singer, who seems happy enough to be paid for his
services, even if he is reticent to admit it after the fact. There should be no doubt in this conversation
where the weight of credibility lies.
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A2: “Balling”
( ) Balling was being paid by the oil industry: his studies are biased

Oriana Zill de Granados 11/23/6 “The doubters of global warming: profiles of the skeptics”
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/reports/skeptics.html

Journalist Ross Gelbspan reported in 1995 that Balling had received "more than $200,000 from coal
and oil interests in Great Britain, Germany, and elsewhere." Dr. Balling has also received funding since
1989 from the Kuwaiti government, which paid for a version of Balling's A Heated Debate to be
released in the Middle East. According to Greenpeace's Exxonsecrets.org, Dr. Balling conducted an
ExxonMobil-funded study in 2002 entitled "The 2000 United States Historical Climate Network
Update: What Changed?"
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A2: “Seitz”

( ) Seitz is biased: he received money from ExxonMobil for his studies

Oriana Zill de Granados 11/23/6 “The doubters of global warming: profiles of the skeptics”
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/reports/skeptics.html

In the 1990s, Dr. Seitz began publishing opinion pieces dismissing the dangers of global warming. In
1998, he circulated a petition through the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine saying that carbon
dioxide poses no threat to climate and rejecting the Kyoto Protocol. Seitz was also a signatory of the 1995
Leipzig Declaration, which disputed that there was any scientific agreement about climate change.
Affiliations & Funding: Among the several skeptical organizations with which Dr. Seitz has been
affiliated, he has been Chairman Emeritus of the George C. Marshall Institute, which received
$630,000 from ExxonMobil between 1998 and 2005, according to the Greenpeace's Exxonsecrets.org and
a review Exxon's financial documents. Seitz also served on the Board of Academic and Scientific
Advisors for the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, which received $472,000 from Exxon from
1998 to 2005, according to the same sources.
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A2: “Lindzen”
( ) Lindzen is biased: paid off by ExxonMobil

Oriana Zill de Granados 11/23/6 “The doubters of global warming: profiles of the skeptics”
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/reports/skeptics.html

Area of Expertise: A meteorologist, Lindzen is a member of the National Academy of Sciences. His
published works include papers on monsoons, how heat and water move around the world, the ice ages and
the effects of seasonal changes on the atmosphere. Lindzen worked on -- and was vocally critical of -- the
Second Assessment of Climate Change by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, released in
1995; that same year he also signed the Leipzig Declaration. He has frequently aired his skepticism in
testimony before Congress.
Affiliations & Funding: Dr. Lindzen has claimed in Newsweek and elsewhere that his funding comes
exclusively from government sources, but he does not seem to include speaking fees and other personal
compensation in this statement. Ross Gelbspan, who did some of the first reporting on climate skeptics' links to
industry, wrote in Harper's Magazine in 1995: "[Lindzen] charges oil and coal interests $2,500 a day for his
consulting services; his 1991 trip to testify before a Senate committee was paid for by Western Fuels, and a
speech he wrote, entitled 'Global Warming: the Origin and Nature of Alleged Scientific Consensus,' was
underwritten by OPEC." Dr. Lindzen is a member of the Advisory Council of the Annapolis Center for
Science Based Public Policy, which has received large amounts of funding from ExxonMobil and smaller
amounts from Daimler Chrysler, according to a review Exxon's own financial documents and 990s from Daimler
Chrysler's Foundation. Lindzen is a also been a contributor to the Cato Institute, which has taken $90,000 from
Exxon since 1998, according to the website Exxonsecrets.org and a review Exxon financial documents.
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***Warming Bad – Feedbacks***


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Positive Feedbacks – Carbon Cycle (1/2)


Positive carbon-cycle feedback cycles from ocean and land ecosystems will accelerate
warming

Peter M Cox 11-9-00“Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model”
Nature International Weekly Journal of Science
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v408/n6809/pdf/408184a0.pdf

The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic
emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate1. About half of the current emissions are
being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems2, but this absorption is sensitive to climate3,4 as
well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations5, creating a feedback loop. General circulation
models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static
vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not
include climate change6. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional
carbon±climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate
change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a `business as usual' scenario, the
terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source
thereafter. Our results indicate that it will be essential to accurately represent previously neglected
carbon-cycle feedbacks if we are to successfully predict climate change over the next 100 years.

Studies prove: warming causes ecosystems to release more carbon, intensifying the
warming effect

Timothy Lenton 11/00 (Institute of Terrestrial Ecology) “Land and ocean carbon cycle feedback effects on global
warming in a simple Earth system model” http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1034/j.1600-
0889.2000.01104.x

A simple Earth system model is developed by coupling a box model of the global carbon cycle to an energy‐balance approximation of
global temperature. The model includes a range of feedback mechanisms between atmospheric CO2, surface temperature and land and
ocean carbon cycling. It is used to assess their effect on the global change being driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel
burning and land‐use change. When tuned to reach the 1990 level of atmospheric CO2, the model CO2 predictions for 1832–1990 are
reasonably close to ice‐core and instrumental records, observed global warming of 0.6 K from 1860–1990 is accurately predicted and
the land and ocean carbon sinks for the 1980s are close to IPCC central estimates. The ocean sink is reduced by 0.3 GtC yr−1 when
the ocean surface is assumed to warm at the same rate as global surface temperature. Land and oceanic carbon sinks are predicted to be
growing at present and hence buffering the rate of rise of atmospheric CO2. In the basic model, the current land carbon sink is assumed
to be due to CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis. The slight warming that has occurred enhances soil respiration
(carbon loss) and net primary productivity (carbon uptake) by similar amounts. When the model is
forced with a "business as usual"(IS92a) emissions scenario for 1990–2100 followed by a linear decline
in emissions to zero at 2200, CO2 reaches a peak of 985 ppmv in 2170 and temperature peaks at +5.5 K
in 2180. Peak CO2 is 135 ppmv higher than suggested by IPCC for the same forcing, principally
because global warming first suppresses the land carbon sink then generates a land carbon source.
When warming exceeds 4.5 K, soil respiration "overtakes" the CO2 fertilisation of NPP, triggering a release of 70 GtC from
terrestrial ecosystems over 100 years. When the effects of temperature on photosynthesis, respiration and soil respiration are removed,
peak levels of CO2 are reduced by 100 ppmv and peak temperature by 0.5 K. Distinguishing separate soil carbon pools with
different residence times does not significantly alter the timing of the switch to a land carbon source or its effect on peak CO2, but it
causes the source to persist for longer. If forest re‐growth or nitrogen deposition are assumed to contribute to the current land carbon
sink, this implies a weaker CO2 fertilisation effect on photosynthesis and generates a larger future carbon source. Peak CO2 levels are
also sensitive by about ±80 ppmv to upper and lower limits on the temperature responses of photosynthesis, plant respiration and soil
respiration. By forcing the model with a range of future emission scenarios it is found that the creation of a significant land carbon
source requires rapid warming, exceeding 4.5 K, and its magnitude increases with the rate of forcing. The carbon source is
greatest for the most rapid burning of the largest reserve of fossil fuel. It is concluded that carbon loss
from terrestrial ecosystems may significantly ( 10%) amplify global warming under "business as
usual" or more extreme scenarios.
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Positive Feedbacks – Carbon Cycle (2/2)


Simulation studies prove positive feedback, not negative. This feedback will intensify
warming.

Haifeng Qian 11/20/04 “How strong is carbon cycle-climate feedback under global warming?” (Department of
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of Maryland, College Park)
http://www.atmos.umd.edu/theses_archive/2005/haifee/haifee.pdf

The latest scientific data confirm that the earth's climate is rapidly changing. Global temperatures
increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit over the course of the last century, and will likely rise even more
rapidly in the coming decades. In the 2001 IPCC report, global warming was predicted under different
CO2 scenarios. Under such warming conditions, the ecosystem may respond differently in the future.
However, it is difficult to predict its changes because it is extremely complicated. Atmospheric CO2
concentration can determine the magnitude of this future climate change; its level depends on the
exchanges of the land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere carbon fluxes. These exchange situations can be
altered by the feedback between ecosystem and climate under future global warming condition. The
result is that more or less carbon will be released to the atmosphere. Using a fully coupled carbon-climate
models with IPCC-SRES_A1B forcing, we investigate the possible feedbacks of the carbon cycle-climate
system. Our results indicate that there is a positive feedback from interactive carbon cycle to the climate
system, which means that under the global warming condition, the ecosystem will release more carbon
than we expected. As a result, warming will intensify.

Recent studies conclude positive feedbacks: CO2 emissions will alter the global carbon
cycle and exacerbate warming

P. Friedlingstein 4/03 “How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle?”
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1034/j.1600-0889.2003.01461.x

Future climate change induced by atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases is believed to have a large
impact on the global carbon cycle. Several offline studies focusing either on the marine or on the
terrestrial carbon cycle highlighted such potential effects. Two recent online studies, using ocean–
atmosphere general circulation models coupled to land and ocean carbon cycle models, investigated in a
consistent way the feedback between the climate change and the carbon cycle. These two studies used
observed anthropogenic CO2 emissions for the 1860–1995 period and IPCC scenarios for the 1995–2100
period to force the climate – carbon cycle models. The study from the Hadley Centre group showed a very
large positive feedback, atmospheric CO2 reaching 980 ppmv by 2100 if future climate impacts on the
carbon cycle.

Positive feedbacks will speed up warming – empirical studies prove

Marten Scheffer 5/26/06 “Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration
inferred from past climate change”
http://www.secamlocal.ex.ac.uk/people/staff/pmc205/papers/2006/Scheffer_et_al_06_GRL.pdf

There is good evidence that higher global temperatures will promote a rise of greenhouse gas levels,
implying a positive feedback which will increase the effect of anthropogenic emissions on global
temperatures. Linking this information with the mid-range Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change estimation of the greenhouse gas effect on temperature we suggest that the
feedback of global temperature on atmospheric CO2 will promote warming by an extra 15–78% on a
century-scale. This estimate may be conservative as we did not account for synergistic effects
of likely temperature moderated increase in other greenhouse gases. Our semi-
empirical approach independently supports process based simulations suggesting that
feedback may cause a considerable boost in warming.
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Positive Feedbacks - Methane


Warming = methane gas released by upset permafrost regions leading to amplified
warming

L. Harvey 2/1/95 “Evaluation of the potential impact of methane clathrate destabilization on future global
warming” from Toronto University
http://www.osti.gov/energycitations/product.biblio.jsp?osti_id=57389

Future global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases has the potential to
destabilize methane is modeled in a series of one-dimensional, vertical columns on a 1 deg x 1 deg global
grid. Terrestrial permafrost is divided into 11 columns based on mean annual surface air temperature. Our
base case clathrate distribution results in about 24,000 Gt C as methane clathrate in marine sediments and
about 800 Gt C in terrestrial sediments, only a small fraction which could be destabilized by future global
warming. Scenarios of anthropogenic CO2 and CH4 emission are used to drive a simple model of the
carbon cycle, yielding scenarios of CO2 and CH4 concentration increase. These increases drive a one-
dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model. Globally averaged temperature changes as a
function of time and ocean depth are used as upper boundary conditions to drive the heat transfer/methane
clathrate release models. Three versions of the ocean model are used which result in different temperature
perturbations at the sediment-water interface: a purely diffusive ocean model, an upwelling-diffusion ocean
model with fixed temperature of bottom water formation, and an upwelling-diffusion ocean model with a
feedback between surface temperature and the upwelling velocity. Methane release from clathrate
destabilization is added to the anthropogenic CH4 emission, leading to stronger increases in both CH4
and CO2 concentration.

Methane is 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide for climate change.

Ian Sample 8/11/05 “Warming Hits its Tipping Point” Guardian Newspaper
http://www.zmag.org/znet/viewArticle/5644

The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog
and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times
more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere. It is a scenario climate scientists have feared
since first identifying "tipping points" - delicate thresholds where a slight rise in the Earth's temperature
can cause a dramatic change in the environment that itself triggers a far greater increase in global
temperatures. The discovery was made by Sergei Kirpotin at Tomsk State University in western Siberia and
Judith Marquand at Oxford University and is reported in New Scientist today. Dr Kirpotin told the magazine
the situation was an "ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to
climatic warming".
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Positive Feedbacks – Soil Carbon


Warming will lead to soil decomposition that accelerates warming

Jenkinson 5/91 (Dept of soil science, University of Reading)


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v351/n6324/pdf/351304a0.pdf

Positive carbon-cycle feedbacks will off-set any reduction in emissions and inevitably lead
to more rapid warming

Tim Radford Science Editor of The Guardian 9-8-05 “Loss of Soil Carbon Will Speed Global Warming”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2005/sep/08/sciencenews.research1

England's soils have been losing carbon at the rate of four million tonnes a year for the past 25 years -
losses which will accelerate global warming and which have already offset all the cuts in Britain's
industrial carbon emissions between 1990 and 2002, scientists warn today. The research dashes hopes
that more carbon dioxide emissions might mean more vegetation growth and therefore more carbon
removed from the atmosphere. The unexpected loss of carbon from the soils - consistently, everywhere
in England and Wales and therefore probably everywhere in the temperate world - means more carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere, which means even more global warming, and yet more carbon lost from the
soil. "All the consequences of global warming will occur more rapidly. That's the scary thing: the amount
of time we have got to do something about it is smaller than we thought," Guy Kirk, of Cranfield University,
told the British Association Festival of Science, in Dublin. He and colleagues sampled the top 15cm (6in) of
soil at almost 6,000 fixed points in England and Wales between 1978 and 2003, to measure the changes in
living and decaying matter locked in pastures, croplands, forests, bogs, scrubland and heaths. Their findings,
published in Nature today, show that carbon was being lost from the soil at an average of 0.6% a year: the
richer the soils, the higher the rate of loss. When the figures were extrapolated to include all of the UK, the
annual loss was 13m tonnes. There was no single factor other than global warming that could explain
such changes in non-agricultural soils, they said. "These losses completely offset the past technological
achievements in reducing carbon dioxide emissions, putting the UK's success in reducing greenhouse gas
emissions in a different light," said Detlef Schulze and Annette Freibauer, of the Max Planck Institute, in
Nature.
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Positive Feedbacks – Soil Carbon


Soil carbon feedbacks will speed up warming

Miko Kirschbaum 11/3/04 “Will soil organic carbon act as a positive or negative feedback on global warming?”
http://www.springerlink.com/content/k8k85r2715400870/

The world''s soils contain about 1500 Gt of organic carbon to a depth of 1m and a further 900 Gt from 1--2m.
A change of total soil organic carbon by just 10% would thus be equivalent to all the anthropogenic
CO2 emitted over 30 years. Warming is likely to increase both the rate of decomposition and net
primary production (NPP), with a fraction of NPP forming new organic carbon. Evidence from various
sources can be used to assess whether NPP or the rate of decomposition has the greater temperature
sensitivity, and, hence, whether warming is likely to lead to an increase or decrease in soil organic carbon.
The review concludes by simulating the likely changes in soil organic carbon with warming. In summary, it
appears likely that warming will have the effect of reducing soil organic carbon by stimulating
decomposition rates more than NPP. However, increasing CO2 is likely to simultaneously have the effect
of increasing soil organic carbon through increases in NPP.
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Positive Feedbacks – Water Vapor/Ocean Uptake


Warming operates in positive feedback through water vapor concentrations and ocean
uptake of CO2.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
16)

Feedbacks can amplify or dampen the response to a given forcing. Direct emission of water vapour (a
greenhouse gas) by human activities makes a negligible contribution to radiative forcing. However, as global
average temperature increases, tropospheric water vapour concentrations increase and this represents
a key positive feedback but not a forcing of climate change. Water vapour changes represent the largest
feedback affecting equilibrium climate sensitivity and are now better understood than in the TAR. Cloud
feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty. Spatial patterns of climate response are largely controlled
by climate processes and feedbacks. For example, sea-ice albedo feedbacks tend to enhance the high latitude
response. {WGI 2.8, 8.6, 9.2, TS.2.1.3, TS.2.5, SPM} Warming reduces terrestrial and ocean uptake of
atmospheric CO2, increasing the fraction of anthropogenic emissions remaining in the atmosphere.
This positive carbon cycle feedback leads to larger atmospheric CO2 increases and greater climate
change for a given emissions scenario, but the strength of this feedback effect varies markedly among
models. {WGI 7.3, TS.5.4, SPM; WGII 4.4}
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Positive Feedbacks – More Likely


Positive feedback occurrences are supported by loads of data and are more likely than
negative feedback
Keith Smith 8/97 (Institute of Ecology and Resource Management) “Global Change Biology”
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1046/j.1365-2486.1997.00100.x

About 65% of all emissions of nitrous oxide, N2O, are from soils, and are caused by aerobic nitrification and
anaerobic denitrification. Tropical forest soils are probably the most important single source, followed by
cultivated soils. Emission rates in natural systems are related to the rate of N mineralization from organic
matter, and N deposition; in agricultural systems they are related to the quantities of N used as fertilizers and,
where relevant, to recent land use change. The global budget for N2O is not well balanced, and sources may
still be underestimated. Direct evidence of a positive feedback of global warming on N2O emissions
comes from studies of air in ice cores. One of the projected effects of future global warming is a
lowering of water tables in northern peatlands; experiments suggest that this would lead to increased
emissions, but that the effect on total emissions would be small. The results of many experiments with non-
peatland soils indicate that the effect of temperature on soil emissions is generally positive, and that the
rate of increase may be very steep when denitrification is the principal process involved. Process-level
modelling suggests that the reason is increased soil respiration, which causes an increase in anaerobic volume
in which denitrification can take place, in addition to the increased denitrification rate per unit anaerobic
volume brought about directly by the rise in temperature. These results imply that generally a positive
feedback on emissions from soils is likely. However, in some environments, a large proportion of total
annual emissions can occur during freeze–thaw cycles; such cycles may become more or less frequent,
depending on the climatic zone, and this may result in either a positive or negative feedback effect due to
global warming. Models of global and regional trends give very conflicting predictions of the direction
and the magnitude of climatic impacts on fluxes, but the prediction of a positive feedback seems to be
the more soundly based.
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Positive Feedbacks – o/w Negative Feedbacks


While both positive and negative feedback will occur, the positive feedback will be stronger
resulting in accelerated warming

Fred Pearce 2/12/05 “Climate Change: Menace or Myth?” New Scientist


http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=mg18524861.400

All experts agree that the planet is likely to respond in a variety of ways, some of which will dampen
down the warming (negative feedback) while others will amplify it (positive feedback). Assessing the
impacts of these feedbacks has been a central task of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a
co-operative agency set up 17 years ago that has harnessed the work of thousands of scientists. Having spent
countless hours of supercomputer time creating and refining models to simulate the planet's climate system,
the IPCC concludes that the feedbacks will be overwhelmingly positive. The only question, it says, is just
how big this positive feedback will be.The latest IPCC assessment is that doubling CO2 levels will warm the
world by anything from 1.4 to 5.8 °C. In other words, this predicts a rise in global temperature from pre-
industrial levels of around 14.8 °C to between 16.2 and 20.6 °C. Even at the low end, this is probably the
biggest fluctuation in temperature that has occurred in the history of human civilisation.. So what are the
positive feedbacks and how much uncertainty surrounds them?
Melting of polar ice is almost certainly one. Where the ice melts, the new, darker surface absorbs more
heat from the sun, and so warms the planet. This is already happening. The second major source of
positive feedback is water vapour. As this is responsible for a bigger slice of today's greenhouse effect
than any other gas, including CO2, any change in the amount of moisture in the atmosphere is critical. A
warmer world will evaporate more water from the oceans, giving an extra push to warming. But there is a
complication. Some of the water vapour will turn to cloud, and the net effect of cloudier skies on heat coming
in and going out is far from clear. Clouds reflect energy from the sun back into space, but they also trap heat
radiated from the surface, especially at night. Whether warming or cooling predominates depends on the type
and height of clouds. The IPCC calculates that the combined effect of extra water vapour and clouds will
increase warming, but accepts that clouds are the biggest source of uncertainty in the models. Recent analysis
suggests that clouds could have a more powerful warming effect than once thought - possibly much more
powerful (New Scientist, 24 July 2004, p 44). And there could be other surprise positive feedbacks that
do not yet feature in the climate models. For instance, a release of some of the huge quantities of methane,
a potent greenhouse gas, that are frozen into the Siberian permafrost and the ocean floor could have a
catastrophic warming effect. And an end to ice formation in the Arctic could upset ocean currents and
even shut down the Gulf Stream - the starting point for the blockbuster movie The Day After
Tomorrow. There are counterbalancing negative feedbacks, some of which are already in the models.
These include the ability of the oceans to absorb heat from the atmosphere, and of some pollutants -
such as the sulphate particles that make acid rain - to shade the planet. But both are double-edged. The
models predict that the ocean's ability to absorb heat will decline as the surface warms, as mixing between
less dense, warm surface waters and the denser cold depths becomes more difficult. Meanwhile, sulphate and
other aerosols could already be masking far stronger underlying warming effects than are apparent from
measured temperatures. Aerosols last only a few weeks in the atmosphere, while greenhouse gases last for
decades. So efforts to cut pollution by using technologies such as scrubbers to remove sulphur dioxide
from power station stacks could trigger a surge in temperatures. Sceptics also like to point out that most
models do not yet include negative feedback from vegetation, which is already growing faster in a warmer
world, and soaking up more CO2. But here they may be onto a loser, as the few climate models so far to
include plants show that continued climate change is likely to damage their ability to absorb CO2, potentially
turning a negative feedback into a positive one.
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Positive Feedbacks – Unstoppable Warming


Positive carbon-cycle feedbacks will lead to unstoppable runaway global warming

Ian Sample 8/11/05 “Warming Hits its Tipping Point” Guardian Newspaper
http://www.zmag.org/znet/viewArticle/5644

The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog
and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times
more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere. It is a scenario climate scientists have feared since
first identifying "tipping points" - delicate thresholds where a slight rise in the Earth's temperature
can cause a dramatic change in the environment that itself triggers a far greater increase in global
temperatures. The discovery was made by Sergei Kirpotin at Tomsk State University in western Siberia and
Judith Marquand at Oxford University and is reported in New Scientist today. Dr Kirpotin told the magazine
the situation was an "ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to
climatic warming". He added that the thaw had probably begun in the past three or four years. Climate
scientists yesterday reacted with alarm to the finding, and warned that predictions of future global
temperatures would have to be revised upwards. "When you start messing around with these natural
systems, you can end up in situations where it's unstoppable. There are no brakes you can apply," said
David Viner, a senior scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. "This is a big
deal because you can't put the permafrost back once it's gone. The causal effect is human activity and it will
ramp up temperatures even more than our emissions are doing." In its last major report in 2001, the
intergovernmental panel on climate change predicted a rise in global temperatures of 1.4C-5.8C
between 1990 and 2100, but the estimate only takes account of global warming driven by known
greenhouse gas emissions. "These positive feedbacks with landmasses weren't known about then. They
had no idea how much they would add to global warming," said Dr Viner. Tony Juniper, director of
Friends of the Earth, said the finding was a stark message to politicians to take concerted action on climate
change. "We knew at some point we'd get these feedbacks happening that exacerbate global warming, but
this could lead to a massive injection of greenhouse gases. "If we don't take action very soon, we could
unleash runaway global warming that will be beyond our control and it will lead to social, economic
and environmental devastation worldwide," he said. "There's still time to take action, but not much. "The
assumption has been that we wouldn't see these kinds of changes until the world is a little warmer, but this
suggests we're running out of time."
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A2: “Clouds = negative feedback”


Feedback from clouds are stable – the number that reflect and store heat are equal

Richard Lindzen 92 (Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) “Global Warming:
The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus”
http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv15n2/reg15n2g.html

Given that a doubling of carbon dioxide would change the surface heat flux by only two watts per square
meter, it is evident that a small change in cloud cover can strongly affect the response to carbon dioxide. The
situation is complicated by the fact that clouds at high altitudes can also supplement the greenhouse effect.
Indeed, the effects of clouds in reflecting light and in enhancing the greenhouse effect are roughly in balance.
Their actual effect on climate depends both on the response of clouds to warming and on the possible imbalance of
their cooling and heating effects.
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***Warming Bad – A2: Adaptation***


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Adaptation Insufficient
Adaptation can’t solve – multiple barriers and climate variability prevent.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis


Report”, 12/12-17, p. 34)
Recent studies reaffirm the TAR finding that adaptation will be vital and beneficial. However, financial,
technological, cognitive, behavioural, political, social, institutional and cultural constraints limit both
the implementation and effectiveness of adaptation measures. Even societies with high adaptive
capacity remain vulnerable to climate change, variability and extremes. For example, a heat wave in
2003 caused high levels of mortality in European cities (especially among the elderly), and Hurricane
Katrina in 2005 caused large human and financial costs in the United States. {WGII 7.4, 8.2, 17.4}

Societal adaptation alone can’t solve global warming’s impacts – we must reduce emissions.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis


Report”, 12/12-17, p. 34)
Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by other stresses. These arise from, for example,
current climate hazards, poverty, unequal access to resources, food insecurity, trends in economic
globalisation, conflict and incidence of diseases such as HIV/ AIDS. {WGII 7.2, 7.4, 8.3, 17.3, 20.3, 20.4,
20.7, SPM} Societies across the world have a long record of adapting and reducing their vulnerability to
the impacts of weather- and climate related events such as floods, droughts and storms. Nevertheless,
additional adaptation measures will be required at regional and local levels to reduce the adverse impacts of
projected climate change and variability, regardless of the scale of mitigation undertaken over the next two to
three decades. However, adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate
change, especially not over the long term as most impacts increase in magnitude.
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***Warming Bad – Impacts***


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Warming Impacts – War (1/3)

Warming leads to widespread warfare that risks a major nuclear exchange.

Pauchari 07 (R.K.,
IPCC chairman, “Acceptance Speech for the Nobel Peace Prize Awarded
to the [IPCC]”, 12/10, p. 4, http://www.ipcc.ch/)
Neglect in protecting our heritage of natural resources could prove extremely harmful for the human
race and for all species that share common space on planet earth. Indeed, there are many lessons in human
history which provide adequate warning about the chaos and destruction that could take place if we
remain guilty of myopic indifference to the progressive erosion and decline of nature’s resources. Much
has been written, for instance, about the Maya civilization, which flourished during 250–950 AD, but
collapsed largely as a result of serious and prolonged drought. Even earlier, some 4000 years ago a number of
well-known Bronze Age cultures also crumbled extending from the Mediterranean to the Indus Valley,
including the civilizations, which had blossomed in Mesopotamia. More recent examples of societies that
collapsed or faced chaos on account of depletion or degradation of natural resources include the Khmer
Empire in South East Asia, Eastern Island, and several others. Changes in climate have historically
determined periods of peace as well as conflict. The recent work of David Zhang has, in fact, highlighted
the link between temperature fluctuations, reduced agricultural production, and the frequency of
warfare in Eastern China over the last millennium. Further, in recent years several groups have studied
the link between climate and security. These have raised the threat of dramatic population migration,
conflict, and war over water and other resources as well as a realignment of power among nations.
Some also highlight the possibility of rising tensions between rich and poor nations, health problems
caused particularly by water shortages, and crop failures as well as concerns over nuclear
proliferation.

Climate change causes war – 5 reasons.

Pauchari 07 (R.K.,
IPCC chairman, “Acceptance Speech for the Nobel Peace Prize Awarded
to the [IPCC]”, 12/10, p. 5, http://www.ipcc.ch/)
Peace can be defined as security and the secure access to resources that are essential for living. A
disruption in such access could prove disruptive of peace. In this regard, climate change will have
several implications, as numerous adverse impacts are expected for some populations in terms of: -
access to clean water, - access to sufficient food, - stable health conditions, - ecosystem resources, -
security of settlements.
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Warming Impacts – War (2/3)


Climate change can trigger conflict. Darfur proves.

Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog 2008 (April, Norweigan Refugee Council, “Future floods of refugees: A
comment on climate change, conflict and forced migration”, http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf, Accessed
6/28/08)

Darfur is often used to illustrate how climate change can interact with other factors to trigger violent
conflict. When Darfur first made headlines, the most common explanation of the violent conflict emphasised
the ethnic differences between Arabs and Africans. More recently, prominent officials such as UN
Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon have argued that “the Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis,
arising at least in part from climate change (“A Climate Culprit in Darfur,” in The Washington Post,
16.06.2007).”
UNEP’s post-conflict environmental assessment (Sudan: Post-Conflict Environmental
Assessment, UNEP, 2007) indicates that there is a very strong link between land degradation,
desertification and conflict in Darfur. The boundary between desert and semi-desert is shifting
southwards partly due to declining precipitation. Several authors attribute this to climate change,
while others maintain that the semi-arid Sahel with strong climate variability is not a good case for
illustrating or proving climate change. The 20-year drought, regardless of cause, played an important role by
reducing the land available for farming and herding, but as the UNEP assessment also recognises, climate
(and/or environmental) change alone does not offer the full explanation for the outbreak or the extent of the
violent conflict. All countries in the Sahel have felt the impact of global warming, but so far only Sudan has
experienced such devastating conflict.
The ethnic dimension does not offer a full explanation either: Political and military alliances frequently
shifted depending on pragmatic rather than ethnic considerations. Furthermore, some tribes practice both
herding and crop cultivation so there is not always clear tribal distinctions between farmers and herders.
When the north-south civil war broke out again in the mid-1980s, however, the central government used Arab
militias as a means of keeping the southern rebels at bay in Darfur. Raising an army is expensive so the
Khartoum regime used a strategy often employed in warfare: they armed others to do the work of the army. A
balance was upset, and ethnic identity became more politicised. This fed into the escalation of conflicts over
land issues.
The conflict itself has taken a further toll on already scarce resources. Militias in Darfur intentionally
destroyed forests and the natural livelihood base of people, resulting in further displacement. The
massive scale of displacement also has serious consequences for the environment. Around the camps
for displaced people, the collection of shelter materials and firewood can cause serious deforestation
and soil erosion. UNEP’s assessment indicates that some international aid programmes may also cause
significant harm to the environment, and there may be vicious circles of (particularly food) aid dependence,
agricultural underdevelopment and environmental degradation. This is detrimental to Darfur’s existing
problems of drought, desertification and disputes over land-use – factors that contributed to the
conflict in the first place.
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There are many hotspots for conflict including Africa, India, China, the Caribbean, and
Central Asia.

Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog 2008 (April, Norweigan Refugee Council, “Future floods of refugees: A
comment on climate change, conflict and forced migration”, http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf, Accessed
6/28/08)

As already mentioned, impacts of climate change depend not only on exposure to the physical effects of
climate change, but also crucially on vulnerability/resilience and adaptive capacity. The location of the
hazards/disasters are not predicted to change much in the near future, but the severity and frequency is likely
to increase. Vulnerability and resilience is therefore likely to be a determining factor in the
geographical location of “hotspots”. The IPCC have “high confidence” that “Africa is one of the most
vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by the
interaction of ‘multiple stresses’, occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity.”45 The UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) also recognises SIDS and Africa as being
particularly vulnerable, and adds to this list the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). From migration and
environmental conflict research, one can conclude that states and societies, in which the general factors of
forced migration or conflict apply, are particularly vulnerable to climate change.
Whenever there is a disaster, it is likely to be largest in terms of the number of persons affected, in
countries with high populations such as India and China. The Caribbean, amongst other regions, is
also exposed to cyclones and other sudden disasters - though with fewer persons at risk. Apart from
Africa, and particularly the Sahel and the Nile area, the Stern report focuses on Central Asia as a
potential hotspot for future drought-related conflict. Central Asia is also highlighted by Pearce.

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate conflict in Central America, China and the
Indian subcontinent.

Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog 2008 (April, Norweigan Refugee Council, “Future floods of refugees: A
comment on climate change, conflict and forced migration”, http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf, Accessed
6/28/08)

According to the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), the sudden disaster
conflicts are likely to occur more frequently in future: Firstly, regions at risk, particularly Central
America, generally have weak economic and political capacities, making adaptation and crisis
management very difficult. Secondly, storm and flood disasters along the densely populated coasts of
the Indian subcontinent and China can cause major damage and trigger or intensify migration
processes which in turn could trigger conflict.40 Parallel with the growing risk of sudden disasters,
Bangladesh is furthermore plagued by political violence and a growing trend toward Islamist
extremism.
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Warming Impacts – War – South Asia (1/4)


Conflict is escalating in South Asia due to increased climate change.

Mark Sappenfield 2007 (December 6, Staff writer of the Christian Science Monitor, “Global warming may heat
up conflicts, too”, http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1206/p13s02-wogi.htm, Accessed 6/28/08)

The reason he gives is one heard throughout this corner of India, where Himalayan peaks give way to fertile
flood plains: Immigrants from Bangladesh are taking over.
It is a visceral fear in India's Northeast, where people say they feel under siege – their culture, politics,
and security threatened by a tide of Bangladeshis who are here illegally. "On the surface there is peace,"
says Mr. Das, who says he was forced out of his village through intimidation and murders by immigrants.
"But this migration is a tragedy for us."
For now, there is relative calm. But security analysts worry that unrest could flare up again because of a
new threat: global warming. As negotiators gather in Bali, Indonesia, this week to begin work on an
agreement to fight climate change worldwide, concern is mounting that altered weather patterns will stoke
conflict in various parts of the globe.
And this area of South Asia sits atop most experts' watch lists.
Bangladesh is not only one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, it is also chronically
unstable. It is in the midst of a political crisis and showing signs of nascent Islamist fundamentalism.
The effects of global warming could amplify the forces of instability, experts say.
That remains an extreme view. The clearest threat, most agree, is a mass migration that sparks renewed
conflict in the Indian Northeast – an independent-minded area of mountains and jungles fiercely proud
of its distinct heritage and already fretted by a dozen insurgencies.
"It is the No. 1 conflict zone for climate change," says Peter Schwartz, chairman of the Monitor Group, a
research firm in San Francisco that recently released a study on the security risks presented by climate
change.
That field of study is relatively new, but analysts are beginning to lay the map of forecasted climate change
over the map of political weakness to see where changes in weather could lead to volatility. No one argues
that climate change alone will lead to war. But analysts suggest that it could be a pivotal factor that tips
vulnerable regions toward conflicts.
"Climate change is a threat multiplier," says Geoff Dabelko, director of the Environmental Change and
Security Program at the Woodrow Wilson Institute in Washington. "It's not that it creates a whole new set
of problems, it's that it will make things that are already a problem worse."
For that reason, few expect climate change to throw Europe or North America into chaos. Both have the
political stability and economic resources to cope. Areas that lack these advantages – such as sub-Saharan
Africa, Latin America, and South Asia – are most at risk, experts say.
History suggests that climate can help breed political instability. One recent study charted climate
changes, wars, and several other variables back to the 1400s. It found that significantly cooler periods
were characterized by large-scale crop loss, starvation, and conflict.
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Climate change will especially cause conflict due to unique landscape and increased
extremism.

Mark Sappenfield 2007 (December 6, Staff writer of the Christian Science Monitor, “Global warming may heat
up conflicts, too”, http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1206/p13s02-wogi.htm, Accessed 6/28/08)

The scenario for Bangladesh requires little imagination:


•It is a frequent target of severe weather. During the worst floods, one-third of the country can be
submerged. Last month's cyclone Sidr was an example of the kind of storms many scientists say will become
more frequent in the future. Aid groups say the death toll in Bangladesh from Sidr could reach 10,000.
•Most of Bangladesh is flat and coastal, meaning that a sea-level rise of only three feet could consume
10 percent of the country, experts say.
•Bangladesh is the delta for several major river systems. They are fed by runoff from the Himalayan
Mountains and provide the country with its fresh water. As Himalayan glaciers warm and melt, the rivers
are expected to flood more in the short term. Later, as the glaciers disappear, they will become drier,
which could lead to fresh water shortages.
"This is a very precarious piece of geography," says Adil Najam, one of the lead authors of the last two
reports from the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "What we are talking about is
an intensification of this to levels taking it even more out of control."
Even now, many Bangladeshis cannot cope. Last month, Selim Hossain Howladar's home vanished, swept
away by the 150-m.p.h. winds of cyclone Sidr. "I have seen so many cyclones in my lifetime, but I have
never seen anything that could flatten entire villages like it has done this time," says Mr. Howladar, a
fisherman from the village of coastal village of Sarankhola.
Where Howladar's house used to be is now just a clearing. The trawler he bought last year with a loan was
torn to pieces by the storm. "I don't even have a fishing net," he says. "What can I do but move to the city?"
In the north of the country, the story is the same. Three years ago, 25 Hindu families lived in the border
village of Itapota. Now only one remains. Floods have driven off the rest, who are looking for work across
the border in India.
"When you have nothing left to lose, does it matter where you live?" asks Haripada, patriarch of the last
remaining Hindu family in his village. "You live where you think you might find work and earn some
money."
Evidence suggests that current migration is mostly toward the capital, Dhaka, but people from border
districts are increasingly going to India for seasonal employment.
"Bangladesh is so densely populated," says Ainun Nishat, head of the World Conservation Union office in
Bangladesh, "as climate-change impacts cause food shortages and lack of employment, desperation will
drive people far afield to seek out a means of survival."
The population shifts could exacerbate security issues beyond Bangladesh's borders.
For now, Bangladesh's Islamists are largely confined to a narrow band of remote hills in the extreme
southeast. But if global warming creates more "dead land" – abandoned because it has been made
infertile by sea-level rise, it could "create space for [terrorists] to operate," says Peter Ogden of the
Center for American Progress, who cowrote a study titled "The Security Implications of Climate Change."
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Climate change would be especially unwelcome in Bangladesh due to years of instability.

Mark Sappenfield 2007 (December 6, Staff writer of the Christian Science Monitor, “Global warming may heat
up conflicts, too”, http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1206/p13s02-wogi.htm, Accessed 6/28/08)

That would be an unwelcome development for a country frequently under duress. In its 36 years of
independence, Bangladesh has had 14 governments – four of which were replaced by military coups.
The current government is again under military stewardship, with civilian leaders being rounded up
on corruption charges.
"This is an added stress on a country that doesn't necessarily have the capacity" to deal with it, Mr.
Ogden says.
More certainly any increase in migration will increase competition for land, water, and jobs. In India,
the border district of Dhubri is already being pushed to its limits. Many of the environmental trends
that stress Bangladesh are present here, too. For instance, Dhubri is losing huge swaths of land each year
to the wandering course of the Brahmaputra River.
Like many in Bangladesh, Ramzan Ali has lost his livelihood because of it. He squats on an embankment of
silt above what used to be his farmland. Today it is under water. Of the four acres he once had, he now has
less than one, and that is fallow because of siltation. The family's only income comes from his son, who
works in a mill in Dhubri town.
Squeezed by erosion and the arrival of Bangladeshi migrants, other families have had to move upriver
permanently – where, ironically, they, too, are seen by the people there as Bangladeshis. According to
recent voting records, 99 percent of the residents in the area nearest the Bangladeshi border are
migrants.
"Our land is shrinking," says Abdul Hamid Sheikh, standing in a shallow skiff that ferries locals to the river
island of Bhasani Char. "If this migration continues, it will affect us, too."
Experts expect the effects to intensify as global warming intensifies, with more Bangladeshis being
forced into India.
The fear is that this fate awaits every state in the Northeast. In the wake of the turmoil of Bangladeshi
independence in 1971, one state, Tripura, saw its indigenous people consigned to a minority by
Bangladeshi refugees. In India, virtually every state has its own lineage of kings, literary heritage, and
language. Migration threatens to extinguish local cultures. This has made the people of the Northeast
fierce guardians of their cultural identity.
On one hand, it has given rise to numerous anti-Indian, pro-independence insurgencies. On the other,
it has created a climate of paranoia about Bangladesh, a country of 150 million people packed into an
area roughly the size of Iowa.
For this reason, the debate about Bangladeshi migration here is often based not on fact or reasoned analysis,
but "on conjecture and perception," says R.N. Mathur, director-general of police in Assam, the state at the
heart of the Northeast – and the migration debate. "The issue is mainly political."
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Climate change is heightening security tensions between India and Bangladesh.

Afsan Chowdury 2007 (December 28, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, “Climate change brings
threats of war and terrorism”, http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-in-the-press/press-coverage-2007/december-
2007/climate-change-brings-threats-of-war/, Accessed 6/28/08)

Global climate change presents a serious national security threat that could affect Americans at home,
impact U.S. military operations, and heighten global tensions, finds a study released recently by a blue-
ribbon panel of 11 of the most senior retired U.S. admirals and generals as stated by the panel known as the
Military Advisory Board.
"We will pay for this one way or another," said retired U.S. Marine Corps General Anthony Zinni, former
commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East. "We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today, and
we'll have to take an economic hit of some kind. Or, we will pay the price later in military terms. And that
will involve human lives. There will be a human toll."
"The U.S. should commit to a stronger national and international role to help stabilize climate changes
at levels that will avoid significant disruption to global security and stability," the Military Advisory
Board recommends. The study, "National Security and the Threat of Climate Change," says that climate
change acts as a "threat multiplier" in already fragile regions of the world, creating the breeding
grounds for extremism and terrorism.
The CNA Corporation, a nonprofit research and analysis organization, brought together the 11 retired four-
star and three-star admirals and generals as a Military Advisory Board to provide advice, expertise and
perspective on the impact of climate change on national security. CNA writers and researchers compiled the
report under the board's direction and review.
Meanwhile closer at home the threat is taking its early shapes. India is already putting fences on its
border with Bangladesh, one of the longest borders between any two countries, to stop Bangladeshis
from crossing. It claims millions of Bangladeshis have crossed over to India after 1972. That figure
may look small if one-third of Bangladesh drowns and millions try to enter India, seeking safety.
Two dangerous components of possible conflicts arouse great fear. One, the spark of communalism-
related conflict which both countries are subjected to and two, terrorism-related opportunities
inherent in a region where it appears already firmly planted.
Should India aggressively stop fleeing refugees from entering, repercussions are obvious. Such
measures may lead to communal interpretation of these actions. India may quickly be painted as
stopping Muslims from reaching safety. On the other hand, stopping Hindu refugees from Bangladesh
will be cause problem within India. So whatever be the scenario, communalism may rise to conflict
level in both countries and there are many forces in both countries ready to take advantage.
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Failure to act on global warming strains the economy and US leadership.

Pachauri 1/23 (Rajenda, IPCC Chairman, “Speech of the IPPC Chairman , Mr. Rajenda Pachauri, at the World
Economic Forum in Davos – Opening Session”, 08, http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/speeches.htm)

Some of the impacts of climate change are already translating into monetary flows and expenditure as
brought out by payments made by the insurance industry. For instance, economic losses attributed to
natural disasters have increased from US$75.5 billion in the 1960s to US$659.9 billion in the 1990s.
Losses to insurers from natural disasters nearly doubled in 2007 to just below $30 billion globally
according to risk records. From 1980 through 2004, the global economic costs of weather-related events
totaled $1.4 trillion (inflation- corrected), of which $340 billion was insured. Far more important than the
aggregate impacts of climate change on global economic activity are the consequences for some of the most
vulnerable communities across the globe. In Africa, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to
be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change by 2020. In the same year, in some countries
yields from rainfed agriculture could be reduced by upto 50%. Agricultural production, including access
to food, in many African countries would be severely compromised. This would further adversely
affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition. Worldwide the health status of millions of people is
projected to be affected through, for example, increases in malnutrition; increased deaths, diseases and injury
due to extreme weather events; increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases; increased frequency of cardio-
respiratory diseases; and other impacts. The inertia in the climate system is such that even if we were to
stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere today, climate change would
continue for decades. Hence, measures for adapting to the impacts of climate change are urgent and
inevitable. However, it is only through appropriate mitigation measures that many impacts can be
avoided, reduced or delayed. The IPCC has found that the costs of even stringent mitigation measures
would be modest. For achieving a scenario of stabilized temperature increase of 2.0 to 2.4 0 C, the cost
to the global economy would be around 0.12 % per annum, amounting to a loss of less than 3.0 % of
the GDP by 2030 and less than 5.5% by 2050. Comparing the costs of mitigation with avoided damages
would require the reconciliation of welfare impacts on people living in different places and at different points
of time into a global aggregate measure of well-being. What other forum would be more suitable for
exercising its wisdom, knowledge and enlightenment than this one for defining a strategy for global society
to act in response to projected climate change? Such a strategy must be based on stringent mitigation of
emissions of GHGs, through policy measures that lead to development and dissemination of low carbon
technologies across the board, paramount among which would be an appropriate price on carbon. The
benefits from this go beyond the field of climate change, with substantial benefits in the form of higher levels
of energy security, lower pollution at the local level and attendant health benefits. At the same time, the
global community has to provide adequate resources for creating capacity and infrastructure for adapting to
the impacts of climate change in some of the poorest and most vulnerable communities. Business and
industry will, therefore, need to work with governments, civil society and knowledge organizations at an
unprecedented level in creating actions and opportunities for themselves and society as a whole. Economic
activities will consequently move rapidly towards a low carbon future. Those companies and entities
that establish a lead in this endeavour would meet with success in both a business and a societal
context. Those that lag behind would suffer the risk of losses in the marketplace and loss of prestige
and reputation. The same observation can be applied to nations and governments. There would be
dramatic loss of political power and influence for nations that stand unmoved by the growing global
consensus for “deep cuts” in emissions of GHGs with a sense of urgency.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 91
Scholars Lab Warming

Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather (1/6)


Warming exacerbates weather extremes like hurricanes, heat waves, and droughts.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis


Report”, 12/12-17, p. 24)
There is now higher confidence than in the TAR in projected patterns of warming and other regional-
scale features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation and some aspects of extremes and sea
ice. {WGI 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 9.4, 9.5, 10.3, 11.1} Projected warming in the 21st century shows scenario-
independent geographical patterns similar to those observed over the past several decades. Warming is
expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean (near
Antarctica) and northern North Atlantic, continuing recent observed trends (Figure 3.2 right panels). {WGI
10.3, SPM} Snow cover area is projected to contract. Widespread increases in thaw depth are projected
over most permafrost regions. Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic under all SRES
scenarios. In some projections, Arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter part of the
21st century. {WGI 10.3, 10.6, SPM; WGII 15.3.4} It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and
heavy precipitation events will become more frequent. {SYR Table 3.2; WGI 10.3, SPM} Based on a
range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more
intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases
of tropical sea-surface temperatures. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in
numbers of tropical cyclones. The apparent increase in the proportion of very intense storms since
1970 in some regions is much larger than simulated by current models for that period. {WGI 3.8, 9.5,
10.3, SPM} Extra-tropical storm tracks are projected to move poleward, with consequent changes in
wind, precipitation and temperature patterns, continuing the broad pattern of observed trends over the last
halfcentury. {WGI 3.6, 10.3, SPM} Since the TAR there is an improving understanding of projected patterns
of precipitation. Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely in high-latitudes, while
decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions (by as much as about 20% in the A1B scenario in
2100, Figure 3.3), continuing observed patterns in recent trends. {WGI 3.3, 8.3, 9.5, 10.3, 11.2-11.9, SPM}

Warming causes extreme weather that increase water stress, devastate food production,
hurt health, and strain the economy.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis


Report”, 12/12-17, p. 43)
Risks of extreme weather events. Responses to some recent nextreme climate events reveal higher levels
of vulnerability in both developing and developed countries than was assessed in the TAR. There is now
higher confidence in the projected increases in droughts, heat waves and floods, as well as their adverse
impacts. As summarised in Table 3.2, increases in drought, heat waves and floods are projected in many
regions and would have mostly adverse impacts, including increased water stress and wild fire
frequency, adverse effects on food production, adverse health effects, increased flood risk and extreme
high sea level, and damage to infrastructure. {SYR 3.2, 3.3, Table 3.2; WGI 10.3, Table SPM.2; WGII 1.3,
5.4, 7.1, 7.5, 8.2, 12.6, 19.3, Table 19.1, Table SPM.1}
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 92
Scholars Lab Warming

Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather (2/6)


Global warming increases climate extremes by increasing the water in air.

ABC News 06 (Bill Blakemore, “Extreme Weather Fits Global Warming Pattern”, 6/24,
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/GlobalWarming/Story?id=2115144&page=1)

It seems to make no sense: Record drought, right next to downpours. Just this week, for example, swaths of
Arizona have been on fire and there have been flash floods in Texas. But to scientists, it does make sense.
The simple reason is that the air is getting warmer, and warmer air holds more moisture -- so when the
warmer winds sweep across wet farmlands, they suck up more moisture drying the farms out. And
when the winds finally dump that moisture out as rain, the downpours are much heavier. "Suddenly
you've got a gully-washer," says Kevin Trenberth, a scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric
Research, part of a research collaboration among universities. "You've got too much water. And then at
other times you've got drier conditions, potential for drought -- associated with global warming because of
this increase of water vapor in the atmosphere." That can translate into more rain or more snow -- as was
the case this winter in the western mountains. Normally, more snow is good news for farms and towns below
the mountains, because three-fourths of the West's water comes from snow pack. But a warming trend over
the past 30 years means snows often melt out weeks too soon, leaving drier summers, like this year. On a
hot day in the mountains with the snow melting fast, someone might be tempted to see the weather as a sign
of global warming and climate change. But of course it's not, all by itself. There are natural cycles of earlier
and later snow pack melting. Global Changes Plus, as scientists point out, weather is not climate. Weather is
local, whereas climate is a long-term pattern over a large region. Extremes in the past -- like the Dust Bowl in
the 1930's -- happened in only one region at a time. However, what worries scientists now is that these
climate extremes are global. For instance, wildfires over the last five decades are soaring in the United
States and the other continents, according to data from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, an
authoritative report involving consensus from many established scientists. The same goes for floods. And
precipitation for the planet as a whole is up 20 percent.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 93
Scholars Lab Warming

Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather (3/6)


Statistical analysis shows global warming causes devastating weather.

UN Environment Programme 97 (“Are Recent Extreme Weather Events, Like the Large Number of
Atlantic Hurricanes in 1995, Due to Global Warming?”, U.S. Global Change Research Information Center,
http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/qa/08.html)

As the world warms, some extreme climate events, like the frequency of heat waves and very heavy
precipitation, are expected to increase, but it remains uncertain whether or not to expect changes in the
frequency of some other extremes. Moreover, it is important to note that it is not possible to link any
particular weather or climate event definitively to global warming. The causal linkage, if any, between the
frequency of extreme events and global warming only can be determined through statistical analyses of long-
term data, because the natural climate system can produce weather and climate events that often appear to be
uncharacteristic of the recent climate. Data on climate extremes in many regions of the world are inadequate
to draw definitive conclusions about possible changes that may have occurred on a global scale. However, in
some regions where good data are available, there have been some significant increases and decreases
in extreme events over time. For example, there has been a clear trend to fewer extremely low minimum
temperatures in several widely separated areas in recent decades (e.g., Australia, the United States, Russia,
and China). The impact of such changes can manifest itself in fewer freezing days and late season frosts,
such as have been documented in Australia and the United States. Indeed, we expect that the number of
days with extremely low temperatures should continue to decrease as global temperatures rise.
Widespread, extended periods of extremely high temperatures are also expected to become more
frequent with continued global warming, such as the unprecedented high nighttime temperatures during
the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, and the midwestern United States that caused an estimated 830
deaths. However, the global frequency of such heat waves has not been analyzed at this time. Higher
temperatures lead to higher rates of evaporation and precipitation. As the Earth warms, we expect more
precipitation and it is likely to fall over shorter intervals of time, thereby increasing the frequency of very
heavy and extreme precipitation events. Analyses of observed changes in precipitation intensity have been
conducted only for a few countries. Perhaps the best evidence of increases in extreme and very heavy
precipitation events comes from data in North America as depicted for the United States in Figure 8.1. In
Australia, which is historically prone to heavy precipitation, an increase in rainfall amount from major
storms has also been observed. Analyses for South Africa also show increases in extreme precipitation
rates. In another area, China, where data have been analyzed for the last several decades, no obvious trends
are apparent, but high concentrations of air pollution (such as sulfate particles that can cool the climate) may
be counteracting such changes in this region. The area (expressed in percentage) of the United States,
excluding Alaska and Hawaii, with an unusually large amount of total annual precipitation coming from
extreme precipitation events (those with more than 5.08 cm {2 inches} of rainfall {or equivalent if
precipitation is snowfall} in 24 hours) is displayed. The smooth curve shows the same data, but averaged
over periods of about 10 years. There is as yet no evidence for a worldwide rise in the frequency of droughts.
In the future, however, it is expected that many regions will experience more frequent, prolonged, or
more severe droughts, primarily due to the more rapid evaporation of moisture from plants, soils,
lakes, and reservoirs. This is expected to occur even as precipitation increases and heavy precipitation
events become more common. Blizzards and snow storms may actually increase in intensity and
frequency in some colder locations as atmospheric moisture increases. In more temperate latitudes,
snowstorms are likely to decrease in frequency, but their intensity may actually increase, as the world warms.
Observations show that snowfall has increased in the high latitudes of North America, but snow
accumulations have melted faster because of more frequent and earlier thaws. There is evidence of an
increase in the frequency of intense extra- tropical storms in the northern North Atlantic and adjacent
areas of Europe, such as the British Isles, but there has been a decrease in such events in the southern North
Atlantic (south of 30°N) over the past few decades. It remains uncertain as to whether these changes are
natural fluctuations or relate to global warming, because there is little consensus about how global warming
will affect these non-tropical, yet powerful storms.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 94
Scholars Lab Warming

Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather (4/6)


Global Warming increases flooding, ice melting, and extreme heat.

Christian Science Monitor 07 (“Are extreme weather and global warming linked?”, 8/16,
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0816/p12s01-wogi.html)

The headlines this summer seem ominous: "Extreme Weather Plagues Globe in 2007".... "Across Globe,
Extremes of Heat and Rain".... "Insurers Claim Global Warming Makes Some Regions Too Hot to Handle"....
"Floating Arctic ice shrinking at record rate".... "The World Meteorological Organization reports on
extreme weather and climate events." But is global warming to blame? Maybe. Maybe not. In any case,
reports the World Meteorological Organization, "Weather and climate are marked by record extremes in
many regions across the world since January 2007." "In January and April 2007 it is likely that global
land surface temperatures ranked warmest since records began in 1880…. [It is] very likely that hot
extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent." "The
agency found that climate warming was unequivocal and most likely 'due to human activities such as the
burning of fossil fuels'," reports CNN. Among the evidence cited by the UN's meteorological agency,
according to CNN: "Four monsoon depressions, double the normal number, caused heavy flooding in
India, Pakistan and Bangladesh…. England and Wales have experienced their wettest May-to-July
period since record-keeping started in 1766…. Late last month in Sudan, floods and heavy rain caused
23,000 mud brick homes to collapse, killing at least 62 people…." Meanwhile, reports the BBC, "Arctic sea
ice is expected to retreat to a record low by the end of this summer." Citing measurements from the US
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), the BBC reports that this summer is likely to end with the
lowest ice cover on record. "If you look at data for the first week in August, we are way below what we saw
in 2005," explained Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist at the NSIDC. "So unless something really
changes, for example the Arctic suddenly becomes a lot colder, it is going to be hard not to beat the previous
record." But as Agence France-Presse reports, one summer of bumptious weather does not confirm global
warming. "…establishing a link between climate change and extreme weather is a controversial matter….
scientists caution there is not enough evidence to blame global warming for recent extreme weather, and
there are those who say there is no proof that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent." Last
week's storm that drenched New Jersey and then pounded New York City, for example, "was strong but not
particularly rare for a hot summer day," Pennsylvania State University meteorologist Jeff Warner told the
Associated Press. "Climate scientist James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies,
agreed: 'You cannot blame a single specific event, such as [last] week's storm, on climate change,' he said.
'However,' he added, 'it is fair to ask whether the human changes have altered the likelihood of such
events. There the answer seems to be 'yes.' "

Global warming increases the risk of all types of crazy weather.

Environmental Defense Fund 08 (in partnership with Environmental Defense Action Fund, “Global
Warming and Extreme Weather”, http://www.edf.org/page.cfm?tagID=1405)

Studies show that global warming will increase the frequency or intensity of many kinds of extreme
weather. While we can't attribute a particular heat wave or hurricane to global warming, the trends are clear:
Global warming loads the atmospheric dice to roll "heat wave" or "intense storm" more often. Fiercer
Hurricanes More Likely Global warming heats our oceans. Since hurricanes derive their power from
warm waters, scientists expect more ferocious hurricanes. Wildfires on the Rise Hot, dry conditions are
perfect for sparking wildfires. Scientists are starting to trace the link between our warmer climate and the
recent uptick in wildfires. More Droughts Expected Higher temperatures cause water to evaporate faster,
leading to dried-out soil that increases water shortages and puts crops and livestock at risk. Higher
Risk of Downpours, Flood A warmer world will deliver heavier rainfalls and more flooding. Some of that
flooding will likely be as disastrous as what occurred in 2005 in New Orleans. Bigger Odds for Deadly Heat
Waves A warmer climate means more hot weather. Scientists expect global warming to increase the
chance of "killer" heat waves.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 95
Scholars Lab Warming

Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather (5/6)


Warming causes deadly heat waves and massive flooding and cyclones that devastate
economies.

The Independent 03 (“Extreme Weather Prompts Unprecedented Global Warming Alert”, 7/3,
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0703-05.htm)

In an astonishing announcement on global warming and extreme weather, the World Meteorological
Organization signaled last night that the world's weather is going haywire. In a startling report, the WMO,
which normally produces detailed scientific reports and staid statistics at the year's end, highlighted record
extremes in weather and climate occurring all over the world in recent weeks, from Switzerland's
hottest-ever June to a record month for tornadoes in the United States - and linked them to climate
change. The unprecedented warning takes its force and significance from the fact that it is not coming
from Greenpeace or Friends of the Earth, but from an impeccably respected UN Organization that is not
given to hyperbole (though environmentalists will seize on it to claim that the direst warnings of climate
change are being borne out). The Geneva-based body, to which the weather services of 185 countries
contribute, takes the view that events this year in Europe, America and Asia are so remarkable that the world
needs to be made aware of it immediately. The extreme weather it documents, such as record high and low
temperatures, record rainfall and record storms in different parts of the world, is consistent with predictions
of global warming. Supercomputer models show that, as the atmosphere warms, the climate not only
becomes hotter but much more unstable. "Recent scientific assessments indicate that, as the global
temperatures continue to warm due to climate change, the number and intensity of extreme events might
increase," the WMO said, giving a striking series of examples. In southern France, record temperatures
were recorded in June, rising above 40C in places - temperatures of 5C to 7C above the average. In
Switzerland, it was the hottest June in at least 250 years, environmental historians said. In Geneva, since 29
May, daytime temperatures have not fallen below 25C, making it the hottest June recorded. In the United
States, there were 562 May tornadoes, which caused 41 deaths. This set a record for any month. The previous
record was 399 in June 1992. In India, this year's pre-monsoon heatwave brought peak temperatures of
45C - 2C to 5C above the norm. At least 1,400 people died in India due to the hot weather. In Sri Lanka,
heavy rainfall from Tropical Cyclone 01B exacerbated wet conditions, resulting in flooding and
landslides and killing at least 300 people. The infrastructure and economy of south-west Sri Lanka was
heavily damaged. A reduction of 20-30 per cent is expected in the output of low-grown tea in the next three
months. Last month was also the hottest in England and Wales since 1976, with average temperatures of
16C. The WMO said: "These record extreme events (high temperatures, low temperatures and high rainfall
amounts and droughts) all go into calculating the monthly and annual averages, which, for temperatures,
have been gradually increasing over the past 100 years. "New record extreme events occur every year
somewhere in the globe, but in recent years the number of such extremes have been increasing.
"According to recent climate-change scientific assessment reports of the joint WMO/United Nations
Environmental Program Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global average surface temperature
has increased since 1861. Over the 20th century the increase has been around 0.6C. "New analyses of proxy
data for the northern hemisphere indicate that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is likely to
have been the largest in any century during the past 1,000 years." While the trend towards warmer
temperatures has been uneven over the past century, the trend since 1976 is roughly three times that for the
whole period. Global average land and sea surface temperatures in May 2003 were the second highest since
records began in 1880. Considering land temperatures only, last May was the warmest on record. It is
possible that 2003 will be the hottest year ever recorded. The 10 hottest years in the 143-year-old global
temperature record have now all been since 1990, with the three hottest being 1998, 2002 and 2001.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 96
Scholars Lab Warming

Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather (6/6)


Global warming causes lethal heat waves, extreme flooding and storms, and the spread of
disease.

Sierra Club 08 (conservationist group, “Global Warming Impacts: Health Effects – Conclusions”,
http://www.sierraclub.org/globalwarming/health/conclusions.asp)

The IPCC projects that more frequent and more severe heat waves will be one lethal effect of global
warming. Deadly stretches of hot days, where nighttime temperatures remain high, will become more
common. One such event killed over Chicago during the summer of 700 people in 1995. Based indicates on
past heat wave events, research that by the year 2020, global warming could cause up to a 145% rise in
mortality in New York City. Other major cities could suffer similar problems. Regional climate stress on
agriculture may mean up to 300 million additional victims of malnutrition world-wide each year. Extreme
floods and droughts are projected to become more severe as global warming worsens. These extremes
may threaten the availability and supply of safe drinking water. Diseases associated with flooding, such
as cryptosporidiosis, could affect millions more people every year. Extreme weather events, like the
abnormal storms and flooding that have devastated many communities across America in recent years,
may also become more common. As the number and severity of these events increase they will pose not
only an immediate threat to human health and well being, but also bring dangerous long-term
consequences.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 97
Scholars Lab Warming

Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather – Econ


Global warming increases extreme weather events to collapse the global economy.

Brown 08 (Lester R., Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, p. 64)
As the climate changes, more extreme weather events are expected. Andrew Dlugolecki, a consultant on
climate change and its effects on financial institutions, notes that damage from atmospherically related
events has increased by roughly 10 percent a year. “If such an increase were to continue indefinitely,”
he notes, “by 2065 storm damage would exceed the gross world product. The world obviously would
face bankruptcy long before then.” Few double-digit annual growth trends continue for several decades,
but Dlugolecki’s basic point is that climate change can be destructive, disruptive, and very costly.69

A warming-induced New York hurricane could immediately shut down the US economy.

National Geographic News 06 (“Hurricane Could Devastate New York, U.S. Economy, Experts Warn”, 5/19,
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/060519_hurricanes.html)

Forecasters are warning that a hurricane making landfall at or near New York City could cause
catastrophic damage in the U.S.'s largest urban center. While a storm is unlikely to make direct
landfall on Manhattan, a nearby storm would cause extensive flooding and heavy storm surges, experts
say. Major Hurricane Threat Seen for Northeast U.S., Experts Warn Even a minimal hurricane could put
the runways at John F. Kennedy Airport underwater, and the battering action of wind-driven waves
could cause significant damage to buildings, says Stephen Baig, a storm surge specialist with the National
Hurricane Center in Miami. A minor hurricane could also cause flooding throughout Lower Manhattan,
depending on how the storm approached and whether it arrived at high or low tide. Making matters worse,
many New York residents may not realize how severely they could be affected by a hurricane. Scott Mandia,
a professor of physical sciences at Suffolk County Community College in Selden, says Long Island's 4
million residents could be surprised by the aftermath of a storm. "What I think they don't understand is how
many days and weeks after a hurricane that their lives will be completely changed," Mandia said. "People
who live away from the water think a hurricane will mean one day away from work, then back to
normal." "There will be an economic shutdown for a few weeks, if not a month," he said. "The
economic standstill will be the biggest surprise for people."
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 98
Scholars Lab Warming

Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather – Disease


Hurricanes increase the spread of infectious disease.

American Society for Microbiology 05 (“Hurricane Aftermath: Infectious Disease Threats from Common,
Not Exotic Diseases”, 9/13, http://www.asm.org/Media/index.asp?bid=37833)

WASHINGTON, DC--September 13, 2005--In the wake of Katrina, the public health threats from
infectious diseases in hurricane-devastated areas are more likely to come from milder, more common
infections rather than exotic diseases. These common infections can often be prevented using simple hygiene
measures and a little common sense. “Deadly diseases, such as typhoid or cholera, are unlikely to break out
after hurricanes and floods in areas where these diseases do not already naturally occur,” says Ruth
Berkelman, MD, Chair of the Public and Scientific Affairs Board of the American Society for Microbiology.
“The greatest threats to the people in the affected areas are going to be from diseases that were already
there. Dr. Berkelman is the Rollins Professor and Director of the Center for Public Health Preparedness and
Research at the Rollins School of Public Health at Emory University. She is a former Assistant Surgeon
General of the United States and former deputy director of the CDC's National Center for Infectious Diseases
(NCID). Common infectious disease problems in New Orleans in the coming weeks are likely to be skin
and soft-tissue infections, most likely from cuts, abrasions and wounds. The primary culprits will be
Staphylococcus and Streptococcus bacteria, both of which can generally be treated with available
antibiotics. Diseases caused by consumption of contaminated food or water as well as diseases caused by
mosquitoes or other insect bites are also a threat. Vibrio vunificus can also cause serious infections, either
wound infections or blood poisoning (septicemia); V. vulnificus is a bacterium that is normally present in
Gulf Coast waters and is usually contracted by eating tainted seafood. It is primarily a threat to people with
weakened immune systems or liver dysfunction. The CDC has confirmed 15 infections with V. vulnificus, 3
of which were fatal. These cases have occurred in areas other than New Orleans where the water has greater
salinity. Another concern is diarrhea and gastrointestinal illnesses from the flood waters. Short bouts of
diarrhea and upset stomachs sometimes occur after natural disasters and can be caused by sewage
contamination of the water. Although at high levels in floodwaters, the E. coli found in New Orleans is the
type commonly associated with fecal contamination and is not the E. coli H7:O157 strain that can cause
serious kidney disease and bloody diarrhea.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 99
Scholars Lab Warming

Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather – Coral Reefs


Warming-induced hurricanes destroy coral reefs, devastating marine biodiversity and local
economies.
The Guardian 1/24 (“Hurricanes and global warming devastate Caribbean coral reefs”, 08,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jan/24/climatechange)

Warmer seas and a record hurricane season in 2005 have devastated more than half of the coral reefs
in the Caribbean, according to scientists. In a report published yesterday, the World Conservation Union
(IUCN) warned that this severe damage to reefs would probably become a regular event given current
predictions of rising global temperatures due to climate change. According to the report, 2005 was the
hottest year on average since records began and had the most hurricanes ever recorded in a season. Large
hotspots in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico powered strong tropical hurricanes such as Katrina, which
developed into the most devastating storm ever to hit the US. In addition to the well-documented human cost,
the storms damaged coral by increasing the physical strength of waves and covering the coast in
muddy run-off water from the land. The higher sea temperature also caused bleaching, in which the
coral lose the symbiotic algae they need to survive. The reefs then lose their colour and become more
susceptible to death from starvation or disease. Impacts Carl Gustaf Lundin, head of the IUCN's global
marine programme, said: "Sadly for coral reefs, it's highly likely extreme warming will happen again. When
it does, the impacts will be even more severe. If we don't do something about climate change, the reefs won't
be with us for much longer." Some of the worst-hit regions of the Caribbean, which contains more than 10%
of the world's coral reefs, included the area from Florida through to the French West Indies and the Cayman
Islands. In August 2005 severe bleaching affected between 50% and 95% of coral colonies and killed more
than half, mostly in the Lesser Antilles. The IUCN report highlights pressures on coral reefs in addition to
those of overfishing and pollution identified in recent years. A recent study found that reefs near large human
populations suffered the most damage. Coral reefs are an important part of the marine ecosystem,
supporting an estimated 25% of all marine life including more than 4,000 species of fish. They provide
spawning, nursery, refuge and feeding areas for a wide variety of other creatures such as lobsters, crabs,
starfish and sea turtles. Reefs also play a crucial role as natural breakwaters, protecting coastlines from
storms. "It's quite clear that the structure and their function as they are right now in the Caribbean is
quite severely impeded," said Lundin. "Over the next few decades we will see a large reduction in the
number of reef areas." Reefs also boost the local economy - in the Caribbean coral reefs provide more
than $4bn (£2bn) a year from fisheries, scuba-diving tourism and shoreline protection. According to an
analysis by the World Resources Institute: Reefs at Risk, coral loss in the region could cost the local
economy up to $420m every year.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 100
Scholars Lab Warming

Warming Impacts – Natural Disasters


Warming sets in motion a natural disasters loop

Goodman`7 (Amy, syndicated columnist for Seattle PI.com, Global warming link to natural disasters, October 24, 2007,
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/336682_amy25.html)

Fires rage through Southern California. Massive rainstorms drench New Orleans. The Southeast U.S.,
stretching from Tennessee across the Carolinas and into Georgia, is in the midst of what could be the worst
drought on record there. While the media do an admirable job bringing us live images of extreme weather, it
doesn't explain why those events are happening. What links these crises? Global warming. Two words that have
all too often been vacuumed off government Web sites and erased from government scientific studies. If the press
isn't making the connection, Bill McKibben is. In 1989, he wrote the book "The End of Nature," one of the first
books to describe global warming as an emerging environmental crisis. Now he is leading a campaign to draft
mass grass-roots participation to publicize the potential catastrophe of climate change and to demand federal action
to "Step It Up." The first Step It Up day of action, April 14, 2007, organized in local communities (including Seattle)
through a central Web site, saw 1,400 coordinated activities pulled together in just three months. The second day of
action is planned for Nov. 3, organized through stepitup2007.org. "What's important to remember and the reason that
we spend all our time organizing now, trying to change all this, is that so far human beings have raised the
temperature of the planet about 1 degree Fahrenheit," says McKibben. "The computer modeling makes it very
clear that before the century is out, unless we take very strong action, indeed, we're going to raise the
temperature of the planet another 5 degrees Fahrenheit." The cascade effect is what is so important. How
could 1 degree Fahrenheit make such a big difference? One immediate, measurable impact, says University of
Arizona scientist Tom Swetnam, is the increase in the frequency and duration of large wildfires in the U.S.
West. Swetnam and his team have linked a warming, drying trend since the 1980s to the incidence of fires,
like the dozen that are raging out of control in California. The predictions are not good. Trees take in carbon
dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, releasing oxygen. In his August 2006 Science article, Swetnam reports that
Western U.S. forests remove 20 percent to 40 percent of the carbon dioxide in the U.S. As forests burn,
McKibben notes, carbon is released into the atmosphere. Fewer trees then remain to take carbon dioxide out
of the atmosphere, making warmer conditions, supporting more and longer fires, and so on, creating a
positive feedback loop. A central warning of the scientific community is this: At some point, if Earth's
temperature rises much more, maybe 3 degrees, maybe 6 degrees, an irreversible feedback loop will
overwhelm the planet's climate, with cascading impacts leading to a warmer planet. Corporate America is
feeling the heat. Carbon-emitting industries, chastened by the experience of Big Tobacco and asbestos, see that they
might be held accountable -- especially since they are funding junk science and "Astroturf" (i.e., fake grass-roots
groups) to cast doubt about the effects of global warming. Insurance companies can't afford to ignore the
consequences of global warming, as extreme weather events cause billions of dollars in damage.

Warming causes natural disasters-Sea levels

Grist`5 (Grist.com, environmental news & commentary, written by David Roberts, 2005,
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2005/1/6/162641/5470)

What is the relationship between global warming and the recent tsunami in the Indian Ocean (and natural
disasters more generally)? Who is and is not drawing such a connection? Who is and is not trying to score political
points around it? There's been a flurry of writing on the subject recently. We begin with today's Muckraker ...
...which follows up on this post. Our own Amanda Griscom Little argues that, contrary to the assertions of some
right-wing cranks, no enviro is in fact claiming that global warming caused the tsunami. What some enviros
are claiming is that global warming -- along with over-development and other such deleterious human activity --
is raising sea levels and reducing or eliminating the natural barriers (mangroves, coral reefs, etc.) that protect
coastlines from the worst of the tsunami damage. As a result, the damage was worse than it needed to be, and
will be worse yet in the next catastrophe. On the issue of those natural barriers, Emily Gertz over at
WorldChanging has followed her excellent original piece on mangroves with another stellar, link-filled post on the
same subject. She promises more to come, so keep an eye out.
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Warming Impacts – Natural Disasters – Economy (Quakes)


An earthquake in Southern California could cripple the economy.
USGS 5/22 (US Geological Service, “Disaster Earthquake Scenario Unveiled for Southern California”, 08,
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1947)
Scientists today unveiled a hypothetical Scenario describing how a magnitude 7.8 Southern California
earthquake -similar to the recent earthquake in China- would impact the region, causing loss of lives
and massive damage to infrastructure, including critical transportation, power, and water systems. In
the Scenario, the earthquake would kill 1800 people, injure 50,000, cause $200 billion in damage, and
have long-lasting social and economic consequences. This is the most comprehensive analysis ever of
what a major Southern California earthquake would mean, and is the scientific framework for what will
be the largest earthquake preparedness drill in California history, scheduled for November 13, 2008. The
November preparedness exercise, "Golden Guardian '08," will test the ability of emergency responders to
deal with the impact of a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California, and is
being jointly organized by the Governor's Office of Emergency Services and the California Office of
Homeland Security. The Golden Guardian exercise will occur during a week-long series of public events
planned for the "Great Southern California ShakeOut." A June 4th kick-off event is planned for the
"ShakeOut" to help communities plan to respond to the risks highlighted in the Scenario. The scientific report
describing the ShakeOut Scenario, jointly published by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the
California Geological Survey (CGS), will be released today during a Congressional hearing in Washington,
D.C. The House Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, led by
Chairman Jim Costa (D-CA), will hold an oversight hearing on USGS efforts to prepare for future
earthquakes, at 10:00 a.m. EDT in Room 1324, Longworth House Office Building Although imaginary, the
Shakeout Scenario is based on scientists' best predictions of what would actually occur during and after a
major earthquake on the San Andreas Fault. The Scenario outlines a hypothetical earthquake in which: * The
strongest shaking and greatest damage is near the stretch of the San Andreas Fault that extends
through the fastest growing areas of Southern California, including the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire
and Antelope Valley. * At least 10 million people will be exposed to heavy shaking. California's efforts at
mitigation have concentrated on life safety and have been largely successful. Thus, in spite of the large
numbers of people in highly shaken areas, deaths are estimated at only 1,800. * Building types known to be
vulnerable to damage and collapse, do indeed sustain major damage. All un-reinforced masonry buildings
within 15 miles of the San Andreas Fault are completely destroyed. Those that are not retrofitted kill many
occupants. Many other older building types without retrofitting contribute to over $33 billion in damage to
buildings. * The fault offsets all lifelines crossing into Southern California at Cajon Pass (Interstate 15), San
Gorgonio Pass (Interstate 10) and along Route 14, including pipelines, power lines, roads, railways,
telecommunications and aqueducts. * Strong shaking continues in downtown Los Angeles for 55 seconds -
nearly 8 times longer than in the Northridge Earthquake * The prolonged, strong shaking heavily damages
and sometimes collapses hundreds of old brick buildings, thousands of older commercial and industrial
concrete buildings, many wood-frame buildings, and even a few, high-rise steel buildings. Over 600,000
buildings suffer at least some damage that causes tens of thousands of injuries and hundreds of deaths, and
leaves many thousands of people without homes or jobs. * Fire doubles the fatalities and economic losses.
Around Southern California, there will be 1,600 fires started large enough to warrant a 911 call, and some
fires merge into conflagrations that burn hundreds of city blocks. Assuming no Santa Ana winds, the models
still indicate a further $65 billion in direct losses and $22 billion in indirect losses from the fires. * Nearly
two thirds of the hospital beds are non-functional in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino
counties. At the same time, 50,000 people will seek treatment at emergency rooms. * Thanks to a $6 billion
investment in seismic safety, the State highway system fares well. However, although collapse is avoided,
some bridges are non-functional so that much of the highway is not passable on the day of the event. The
long duration of shaking takes a greater toll on bridges and overpasses under the jurisdiction of cities and
counties where the retrofitting processes are not complete or have not begun. * The largest long-term
economic disruption comes from damage to the water distribution system. Damage to this system will
be so extensive that some areas will have to replace the whole system, and some buildings will be
without water for as long as 6 months. The direct and indirect business interruption costs attributed to
the lack of water will be $50 billion.
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Warming Impacts – Natural Disasters – Disease (Tsunamis)


Tsunamis create devastating disease epidemics.
MSNBC 05 (“Immediate aid needed to prevent typhoid, hepatitis epidemics”, 1/3,
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6755980/)
Typhoid, diarrhea and hepatitis epidemics pose a grave threat to tens of thousands of people who
survived a devastating tsunami which tore across the Indian Ocean on Sunday, international relief agencies
said. “The biggest threat to survivors is from the spread of infection through contamination of drinking
water and putrefying bodies left by the receding waters,” Jamie McGoldrick of the U.N.'s Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) told reporters Monday. “We’ve had reports already from
the south of India of bodies rotting where they have fallen and that will immediately affect the water
supply especially for the most impoverished people,” said Christian Aid emergency officer Dominic Nutt.
Epidemics feared Aid agencies around the world have rushed staff, equipment and money to southern Asia.
In New York, U.N. Emergency Relief Coordinator Jan Egeland warned there could be epidemics of
intestinal and lung infections within days unless health systems in the eight stricken countries were
enabled to cope. "The drinking water for millions of people has been polluted," Egeland said at a press
conference Monday. U.N. officials said the organization faced an “unprecedented” challenge to get aid to
victims from Sri Lanka to Indonesia, even taking lives as far away as Somalia.

Tsunamis increase the spread of infectious disease.


Grossman 05 (geology prof. @ U-Wisconsin-Eau Claire, “Tsunami-related diseases”,
http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/LESLIEBJ/)
The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami has claimed up to 300,000 lives. Those lucky enough to
have survived the initial impact of the tsunami are still in danger due to disease. Rotting corpses,
smashed sewer lines, overcrowded refugee camps and contaminated freshwater supplies in the hardest-
hit countries of India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Malaysia all contribute to the spread of disease. "The
initial terror associated with the tsunamis and the earthquake itself may be dwarfed by the longer term
suffering of the affected communities,'' said Dr. David Nabarro, head of crisis operations for the United
Nations.

Tsunamis drastically increase the spread of malaria and dengue fever.


Grossman 05 (geology prof. @ U-Wisconsin-Eau Claire, “Tsunami-related diseases”,
http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/LESLIEBJ/)
The mosquito-borne diseases of malaria and dengue fever may pose the greatest threat to survivors of
the tsunami. Both diseases were already an epidemic in many of the affected countries even before the
tsunami hit. The combination of the tsunami and the heavy rains that followed has created the largest
mosquito breeding grounds the affected nations have ever seen. Stagnant pools of water dominate the
coastal landscape and are optimal breeding grounds for mosquitoes. Literally millions upon millions of
mosquito hatches will take place in these stagnant pools. Mosquitoes are such a concern that the use of
DDT (Dichloro-Diphenyl-Trichloroethane) was considered for prevention measures. DDT is the most
effective killer of mosquitoes on the planet, but the negative environmental effects of DDT has so far
prevented its use. Malaria and dengue fever cause vomiting, diarrhea, muscle aches, fever, and can both be
extremely fatal.
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Warming Impacts – Water Shortages (1/3)


Warming leads to water shortages – they’re already beginning
T. Barnett 5 “Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions” Nature
http://fiesta.bren.ucsb.edu/~dozier/Class/esm236/Reading/Barnett_Nature2005.pdf

In this review, we suggest that the simplest of changes associated with global warming (a modest
increase in near-surface air temperature) will be responsible for alterations of the hydrological cycle in
snowmelt-dominated regions via seasonal shifts in stream-flow. Without adequate water storage
capacity, these changes will lead to regional water shortages. The model-predicted changes are already
being seen in the observed data. If maintained at current levels, these changes will lead to a serious
reduction in dry-season water availability in many regions of the Earth within the next few decades.
The physical principles found to apply in snowmelt-dominated regions (for example, the western
USA) are one of the probable causes of the observed early snowmelt and, more importantly,
deglaciation that is now occurring in most mountainous regions of the world. The serious
situations developing in the HKH region and South America have been briefly presented. It is clear
that both regions, as well as others not mentioned, are headed for a watersupply crisis. Better water
management techniques can help, but cannot solve the problem without significant changes to
agriculture, industry and lifestyle. Detailed studies of the future impact of global warming on
water resources in these regions are long overdue. The studies summarized above show that
current demands for water in many parts of the world will not be met under plausible future climate
conditions, much less the demands of a larger population and a larger economy. The physics behind this
statement is temperature-driven, not precipitation-driven, and this makes the conclusions robust
because all current models predict a warmer future world. The other key factor affecting water
availability is the lack of enough reservoir storage to manage a shift in the seasonal cycle of runoff. Current
information about the climate-related water challenges facing much of the world, although by no
means perfect, is sufficiently robust that major future problem areas can now be defined. The
matter takes on a greater urgency because the model-predicted signals are already being observed.

Warming = shortages
Patrick Love 99“Water Worries”
http://www.questia.com/googleScholar.qst;jsessionid=LpTQFZ8qrG6vvpYg99ZSGfNG2PL9DPRNg4wtQphFxtyG
Wk1J4bJM!973115833?docId=98558417

One trend that is highly likely to aggravate water shortages is global warming, with a 1.5 to 3 degree rise in
global temperatures expected over the next century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC). More water will clearly be consumed for irrigation and drinking, but there may be indirect effects too
which would be more difficult to cope with. There could be in creased evaporation and reduced groundwater
recharge; a higher frequency of extreme weather conditions, such as storms (which can cause water treatment
systems to overload); and a shift in climate zones and seasons which could have marked effects on water
supply Even in regions where the total annual precipitation did not change much, problems could arise if rainfall
became concentrated in the winter or if it shifted away from agricultural zones.

Warming = shortages
M. Falkenmark 7 (Prof at Stockholm International Water Institute)“Global warming: water the main mediator”
http://www.uneca.org/awich/Reports/Global%20warming%20and%20Water%20WF2_07_globalwarming.pdf

In terms of freshwater, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10-40%
at high latitudes but decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics. Drought-
affected areas will likely increase in extent. Heavy precipitation events are likely to increase in frequency,
augmenting flood risks. Figure 1 shows the changes in annual runoff by 2060 under scenario A1B, which assumes
very rapid economic growth, continued globalisation, and technological change in energy systems. It shows that
large low- and mid-latitude areas will get up to 40% less runoff already some 40 years from now, while other
low and high latitude areas will get up to 40% more runoff. In the course of the century, glaciers and snow cover are
projected to decline. This will reduce water availability in regions now dependent on meltwater from major
mountain ranges, incorporating more than one-sixth of the world populations. As for ecosystems, the
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resilience of many ecosystems to adjust to change and bounce back from shocks is likely to be exceeded dur-
ing this century.
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Global warming causes widespread water scarcity, devastating agriculture, energy
production, and health.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
27)

Climate change is expected to exacerbate current stresses on water resources from population growth
and economic and land-use change, including urbanisation. On a regional scale, mountain snow pack,
glaciers and small ice caps play a crucial role in freshwater availability. Widespread mass losses from
glaciers and reductions in snow cover over recent decades are projected to accelerate throughout the
21st century, reducing water availability, hydropower potential, and changing seasonality of flows in
regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges (e.g. Hindu-Kush, Himalaya, Andes), where
more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives. {WGI 4.1, 4.5; WGII 3.3, 3.4, 3.5} Changes
in precipitation (Figure 3.3) and temperature (Figure 3.2) lead to changes in runoff (Figure 3.5) and water
availability. Runoff is projected with high confidence to increase by 10 to 40% by mid-century at higher
latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, including populous areas in East and South-East Asia, and decrease
by 10 to 30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and dry tropics, due to decreases in rainfall and
higher rates of evapotranspiration. There is also high confidence that many semi-arid areas (e.g. the
Mediterranean Basin, western United States, southern Africa and north-eastern Brazil) will suffer a decrease
in water resources due to climate change. Drought-affected areas are projected to increase in extent,
with the potential for adverse impacts on multiple sectors, e.g. agriculture, water supply, energy
production and health. Regionally, large increases in irrigation water demand as a result of climate changes
are projected. {WGI 10.3, 11.2-11.9; WGII 3.4, 3.5, Figure 3.5, TS.4.1, Box TS.5, SPM} The negative
impacts of climate change on freshwater systems outweigh its benefits (high confidence). Areas in which
runoff is projected to decline face a reduction in the value of the services provided by water resources (very
high confidence). The beneficial impacts of increased annual runoff in some areas are likely to be
tempered by negative effects of increased precipitation variability and seasonal runoff shifts on water
supply, water quality and flood risk. {WGII 3.4, 3.5, TS.4.1}

Warming creates conflict over water in North America.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
28)

North America Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack, more winter
flooding and reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources.
{WGII 14.4, SPM}

Warming causes huge water shortages.

Pauchari 07 (R.K., IPCC chairman, “Acceptance Speech for the Nobel Peace Prize Awarded to the [IPCC]”,
12/10, p. 5-6, http://www.ipcc.ch/)
Climate change is expected to exacerbate current stresses on water resources. On a regional scale,
mountain snowpack, glaciers, and small ice caps play a crucial role in fresh water availability.
Widespread mass losses from glaciers and reductions in snow cover over recent decades are projected to
accelerate throughout the 21st century, reducing water availability, hydropower potential, and the
changing seasonality of flows in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges (e.g. Hindu-
Kush, Himalaya, Andes), where more than one-sixth of the world’s population currently lives. There is
also high confidence that many semi-arid areas (e.g. the Mediterranean Basin, western United States,
southern Africa, and northeastern Brazil) will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change.
In Africa by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water
stress due to climate change.
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Warming Impacts – Water Shortages (3/3)


Warming melts glaciers to cause African water wars.

Brown 08 (Lester R., Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, p. 53-55)
In Africa, Tanzania’s snow-capped Kilimanjaro may soon be snow- and ice-free. Ohio State University
glaciologist Lonnie Thompson’s studies of Kilimanjaro show that Africa’s tallest mountain lost 33 percent
of its ice field between 1989 and 2000. He projects that its snowcap could disappear entirely by 2015.
Nearby Mount Kenya has lost 7 of its 18 glaciers. Local rivers fed by these glaciers are becoming
seasonal rivers, generating conflict among the 2 million people who depend on them for water supplies
during the dry season.26

Warming melts glaciers that 1.3 billion Asians depend on for water.

Brown 08 (Lester R., Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, p. 53-54)
Snow and ice masses in mountains are nature’s freshwater reservoirs— nature’s way of storing water to
feed rivers during the dry season. Now they are being threatened by the rise in temperature. Even a 1-
degree rise in temperature in mountainous regions can markedly reduce the share of precipitation
falling as snow and boost that coming down as rain. This in turn increases flooding during the rainy
season and reduces the snowmelt that flows into rivers. Beyond this, the glaciers that feed rivers during
the dry season are melting. Some have disappeared entirely. Nowhere is the melting of glaciers of more
concern than in Asia, where 1.3 billion people depend for their water supply on rivers originating in
the Himalayan Mountains and the adjacent Tibet-Qinghai Plateau.21 India’s Gangotri Glacier, which
supplies 70 percent of the water to the Ganges, is not only melting, it is doing so at an accelerated rate.
If this melting continues to accelerate, the Gangotri’s life expectancy will be measured in decades and the
Ganges will become a seasonal river, flowing only during the rainy season. For the 407 million Indians
and Bangladeshis who live in the Ganges basin, this could be a life-threatening loss of water.22 In
China, which is even more dependent than India on river water for irrigation, the situation is particularly
challenging. Chinese government data show the glaciers on the Tibet-Qinghai Plateau that feed both
the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers are melting at 7 percent a year. The Yellow River, whose basin is home to
147 million people, could experience a large dry-season flow reduction. The Yangtze River, by far the larger
of the two, is threatened by the disappearance of glaciers as well. The basin’s 369 million people rely
heavily on rice from fields irrigated with Yangtze River water.23 Yao Tandong, a leading Chinese
glaciologist, predicts that two thirds of China’s glaciers could be gone by 2060. “The fullscale glacier
shrinkage in the plateau region,” Yao says, “will eventually lead to an ecological catastrophe.”24 Other
Asian rivers that originate in this rooftop of the world include the Indus, with 178 million people in its
basin in India and Pakistan; the Brahmaputra, which flows through Bangladesh; and the Mekong, which
waters Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Viet Nam.25
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Warming Impacts – Water Shortages – Prolif


Water shortages caused by warming = prolif and a world war
David Stipp 4 “The Pentagon’s Weather Nightmare” http://www.climate-talks.net/2005-
ENVRE130/PDF/20040126-Fortune-Pentagon-and-Climate.pdfc

Warming would cause massive droughts, turning farmland to dust bowls and forests to ashes. Picture last fall's
California wildfires as a regular thing. Or imagine similar disasters destabilizing nuclear powers such as Pakistan
or Russia—it's easy to see why the Pentagon has become interested in abrupt climate change. The changes
relentlessly hammer the world's "carrying capacity"—the natural resources, social organizations, and
economic networks that support the population. Technological progress and market forces, which have long
helped boost Earth's carrying capacity, can do little to offset the crisis—it is too widespread and unfolds too fast.
As the planet's carrying capacity shrinks, an ancient pattern reemerges: the eruption of desperate, all-out
wars over food, water, and energy supplies. As Harvard archeologist Steven LeBlanc has noted, wars over
resources were the norm until about three centuries ago. When such conflicts broke out, 25% of a population's adult
males usually died. As abrupt climate change hits home, warfare may again come to define human life. Nuclear
arms proliferation is inevitable. Oil supplies are stretched thin as climate cooling drives up demand. Many
countries seek to shore up their energy supplies with nuclear energy, accelerating nuclear proliferation. Japan,
South Korea, and Germany develop nuclear weapons capabilities, as do Iran, Egypt, and North Korea. Israel, China,
India, and Pakistan also are poised to use the bomb.

Water scarcity has always been a source of tension between neighbors. Despite the lack of
water wars, climate change is likely to exacerbate conflicts over water.

Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog 2008 (April, Norweigan Refugee Council, “Future floods of refugees: A
comment on climate change, conflict and forced migration”, http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf, Accessed
6/28/08)

Water scarcity may trigger distributional conflicts. Water scarcity by itself does not necessarily lead to
conflict and violence, though. There is an interaction with other socio-economic and political factors: The
potential for conflict often relates to social discrimination in terms of access to safe and clean water. The risk
can therefore be reduced by ensuring just distribution so that people in disadvantaged areas also have access
to the safe and clean water. As already pointed out, a main problem today (and probably for the near
future) is still the so-called economic water scarcity, and good water management can prevent conflict.
Within states, groups have often defended or challenged traditional rights of water use: In semi-arid
regions such as the Sahel there have been tensions between farmers and nomadic herders. According to
The Stern Review on The Economics of Climate Change,41 the droughts in the Sahel in the
1970s and 1980s may have been caused partly by climate change and contributed to increased
competition for scarce resources between these groups. The Tuareg rebellion in Mali in the beginning
of the 1990s, is also mentioned as an example of a climate change-related conflict. Many of the
drought-struck nomads sought refuge in the cities or left the country. The lack of social networks for
the returnees, the continuing drought, competition for land with the settled farmers and dissatisfaction
with the authorities, were factors that fuelled the armed rebellion.
In the past there have been few examples of “water wars” between states. In fact there are several cases
of cooperation (for example between Palestine and Israel), but these have generally concerned benefit-
sharing, not burden-sharing. According to Fred Pearce, the defining crises of the 21st century will involve
water.42 He sees the Six Day War in 1967 between Israel and its neighbours as the first modern “water war”,
specifically over the River Jordan. Most of the world’s major rivers cross international boundaries, but
are not covered by treaties. According to Pearce, this is a recipe for conflict and for upstream users to
hold downstream users to ransom. This could be helped by internationally brokered deals for sharing such
rivers.
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Warming Impacts – Water Shortages – Bio-d


Water shortages = bio d loss
Xinhua 5 “Global warming spells out water shortage” http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-
05/11/content_441252.htm

A third of the world's population lives in countries that find it difficult or impossible to meet water needs, a
proportion that could double by 2025, said Rajendra K. Pachauri, chairman of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), Wednesday. In developing countries, about 14,000 to 30,000 people die each day in
developing countries from water-related diseases, Pachauri said at a conference of the IPCC Working Group I for the
Fourth Assessment Report held in Beijing, which will end on Thursday. Climate changes, including rising
temperatures and sea levels, precipitation change, droughts and floods may wield great power over human
and natural systems, he said. Water shortage will be the most serious issue, affecting food production and bio-
diversity as well as human water consumption, he said. The world has to rethink socio-economic development,
including economic growth technology and population governance, to adapt to these changes, he said.

Loss of a single species risks extinction


Paul Warner, American University, Dept of International Politics and Foreign Policy, August,
Politics and Life Sciences, 1994, p177

Massiveextinction of species is dangerous, then, because one cannot predict which species are expendable to the
system as a whole. As Philip Hoose remarks, "Plants and animals cannot tell us what they mean to each other." One can never be
sure which species holds up fundamental biological relationships in the planetary ecosystem. And, because
removing species is an irreversible act, it may be too late to save the system after the extinction of key plants
or animals. According to the U.S. National Research Council, "The ramifications of an ecological change of this
magnitude [vast extinction of species] are so far reaching that no one on earth will escape them." Trifling with the
"lives" of species is like playing Russian roulette, with our collective future as the stakes.

We’ll win the magnitude debate – bio d loss is entirely irreversible and o/ws nukes
Chen, 2000 (Jim, Prof. of Law and Vance K. Opperman Research Scholar) 9Minn. J. Global
Trade 157

The value of endangered species and the biodiversity they embody is "literally ... incalculable." What, if
anything, should the law do to preserve it? There are those that invoke the story of Noah's Ark as a moral basis for
biodiversity preservation. Others regard the entire Judeo-Chhstian tradition, especially the biblical stories of
Creation and the Flood, as the root of the West's deplorable environmental record. To avoid getting bogged down in
an environmental exegesis of Judeo-Christian "myth and legend," we should let Charles Darwin and evolutionary
biology determine the imperatives of our moment in natural "history." The loss of biological diversity is quite
arguably the gravest problem facing humanity. If we cast the question as the contemporary phenomenon that
"our descendants [will1 most regret" the "loss of genetic and species diversity by the destruction of natural
habitats" is worse than even "energy depletion, economic collapse, limited nuclear war, or conquest by a
totalitarian government." Natural evolution may in due course renew the earth with a diversity of species
approximating that of a world unspoiled by Homo sapiens - in ten million years, perhaps a hundred million.
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Warming Impacts – Biodiversity (1/3)


Warming leads to environmental collapse through biodiversity loss, natural disasters, and
destruction of water and food supplies.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
26)

_ The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented


combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g. flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean
acidification) and other global change drivers (e.g. landuse change, pollution, fragmentation of natural
systems, overexploitation of resources). {WGII 4.1-4.6, SPM} _ Over the course of this century, net
carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before mid-century and then weaken or even
reverse16, thus amplifying climate change. {WGII 4.ES, Figure 4.2, SPM} _ Approximately 20 to 30%
of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in
global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5°C (medium confidence). {WGII 4.ES, Figure 4.2, SPM} _
For increases in global average temperature exceeding 1.5 to 2.5°C and in concomitant atmospheric CO2
concentrations, there are projected to be major changes in ecosystem structure and function, species’
ecological interactions and shifts in species’ geographical ranges, with predominantly negative
consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services, e.g. water and food supply. {WGII 4.4,
Box TS.6, SPM}

Warming would destroy the polar ecosystems, resulting in biodiversity loss.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
30)

Polar Regions The main projected biophysical effects are reductions in thickness and extent of glaciers,
ice sheets and sea ice, and changes in natural ecosystems with detrimental effects on many organisms
including migratory birds, mammals and higher predators. {WGII 15.4, SPM} _ For human
communities in the Arctic, impacts, particularly those resulting from changing snow and ice conditions, are
projected to be mixed. {WGII 15.4, SPM} _ Detrimental impacts would include those on infrastructure and
traditional indigenous ways of life. {WGII 15.4, SPM} _ In both polar regions, specific ecosystems and
habitats are projected to be vulnerable, as climatic barriers to species invasions are lowered. {WGII
15.4, SPM}

GLOBAL WARMING HARMS ENTIRE ECOSYSTEM


Garber 08, (US News and World Report)
Eventually, the effects of climate change, far from being limited to individual plants, could percolate
throughout entire ecosystems. If springs become warmer, as predicted, the crop-growing season will
expand. Insects and pests, thriving in warmer winters, will reproduce more frequently and spread
more rapidly. Many, in fact, are proliferating already, as reflected in reports of abnormally high rates
of disease outbreaks in the western half of the United States. Higher temperatures also are usually
accompanied by declining rainfall, threatening to slowly transform once lush areas into arid expanses.
At the same time, droughts and heavy isolated rainfalls could become more numerous.
For all the criticism that has been piled upon the $300 billion farm bill that Congress recently passed over President
Bush's veto, the bill does include many provisions that pertain directly to concerns cited in the new report. Fruit and
vegetable growers, for instance, will receive millions of dollars of new funding for research on pest and disease
resistance.
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Warming Impacts – Biodiversity (2/3)


Warming will eliminate 30% of biodiversity.
IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
43)
Risks to unique and threatened systems. There is new and stronger evidence of observed impacts of
climate change on unique and vulnerable systems (such as polar and high mountain communities and
ecosystems), with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase further. An increasing
risk of species extinction and coral reef damage is projected with higher confidence than in the TAR as
warming proceeds. There is medium confidence that approximately 20 to 30% of plant and animal species
assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature
exceed 1.5 to 2.5°C over 1980-1999 levels. Confidence has increased that a 1 to 2°C increase in global
mean temperature above 1990 levels (about 1.5 to 2.5°C above pre-industrial) poses significant risks to
many unique and threatened systems including many biodiversity hotspots. Corals are vulnerable to
thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C
are projected t result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is
thermal adaptation or acclimatization by corals. Increasing vulnerability of Arctic indigenous
communities and small island communities to warming is projected. {SYR 3.3, 3.4, Figure 3.6, Table
3.2; WGII 4.ES, 4.4, 6.4, 14.4.6, 15.ES, 15.4, 15.6, 16.ES, 16.2.1, 16.4, Table 19.1, 19.3.7, TS.5.3, Figure
TS.12, Figure TS.14}

Warming kills biodiversity in ecologically rich Australia and Oceania.


IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
28)
_ Climate change is projected to compound the pressures on natural resources and the environment
associated with rapid urbanisation, industrialisation and economic development. {WGII 10.4, SPM} _
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are
expected to rise in East, South and South-East Asia due to projected changes in the hydrological cycle.
{WGII 10.4, SPM} Australia and New Zealand _ By 2020, significant loss of biodiversity is projected to
occur in some ecologically rich sites, including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics.
{WGII 11.4, SPM}

Warming leads to 60% biodiversity loss in European mountains.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
28)
Climate change is expected to magnify regional differences in Europe’s natural resources and assets.
Negative impacts will include increased risk of inland flash floods and more frequent coastal flooding and
increased erosion (due to storminess and sea level rise). {WGII 12.4, SPM} _ Mountainous areas will face
glacier retreat, reduced snow cover and winter tourism, and extensive species losses (in some areas up
to 60% under high emissions scenarios by 2080). {WGII 12.4, SPM}

Warming devastates Latin American biodiversity.


IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
28)

By mid-century, increases in temperature and associated decreases in soil water are projected to lead
to gradual replacement of tropical forest by savanna in eastern Amazonia. Semiarid vegetation will
tend to be replaced by arid-land vegetation. {WGII 13.4, SPM} _ There is a risk of significant
biodiversity loss through species extinction in many areas of tropical Latin America. {WGII 13.4 SPM}
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Warming Impacts – Biodiversity (3/3)


Warming causes massive biodiversity loss.

Brown 08 (Lester R., Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, p. 51)
Ecosystems everywhere will be affected by higher temperatures, sometimes in ways we cannot easily
predict. The 2007 IPCC report notes that a rise in temperature of 1 degree Celsius will put up to 30
percent of all species at risk of extinction. The Pew Center on Global Climate Change sponsored a
meta-study analyzing some 40 scientific reports that link rising temperature with changes in
ecosystems. Among the many changes reported are spring arriving nearly two weeks earlier in the United
States, tree swallows nesting nine days earlier than they did 40 years ago, and a northward shift of red fox
habitat that has it encroaching on the Arctic fox’s range. Inuits have been surprised by the appearance of
robins, a bird they have never seen before. Indeed, there is no word in Inuit for “robin.”13 The National
Wildlife Federation (NWF) reports that if temperatures continue to rise, by 2040 one out of five of the
Pacific Northwest’s rivers will be too hot for salmon, steelhead, and trout to survive. Paula Del Giudice,
Director of NWF’s Northwest Natural Resource Center, notes that “global warming will add an enormous
amount of pressure onto what’s left of the region’s prime cold-water fish habitat.”14 Douglas Inkley,
NWF Senior Science Advisor and senior author of a report to The Wildlife Society, notes, “We face the
prospect that the world of wildlife that we now know—and many of the places we have invested decades
of work in conserving as refuges and habitats for wildlife—will cease to existas we know them, unless
we change this forecast.”15

Warming destroys biodiversity to lead to widespread ecosystem collapse.

Pauchari 07 (R.K., IPCC chairman, “Acceptance Speech for the Nobel Peace Prize Awarded to the [IPCC]”,
12/10, p. 6-7, http://www.ipcc.ch/)

Climate change is likely to lead to some irreversible impacts on biodiversity. There is medium
confidence that approximately 20%–30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of
extinction if increases in global average warming exceed 1.5–2.5 ºC, relative to 1980—99. As global
average temperature exceeds about 3.5 ºC, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40%–
70% of species assessed) around the globe. These changes, if they were to occur would have serious
effects on the sustainability of several ecosystems and the services they provide to human society.
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Warming Impacts – Plankton – A2: Pollutants Turn


1. Plan does not regulate sulfur emissions; It regulates carbon emissions which have been
proven to be bad.

2. Pollution is causing acidification in the ocean and hurting plankton.

Jennifer Provencher 2007 (“Plankton: doing more than just drifting through”,
http://oceanlink.island.net/ONews/ONews7/plankton.html, Accessed 6/30/08)

Warming water is not the only threat to plankton. As atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels increase,
the oceans absorb more of this gas. It's been estimated that since the year 1800, the oceans have taken
up roughly 120 billion metric tons of human generated CO2 [2]. Currently, the oceans are up-taking
roughly 20-25 million tons each day – with no relief in sight [2].
As the oceans take in carbon dioxide the gas forms carbonic acid, lowering the pH of the ocean water
and turning it dangerously acidic. This acidification is occurring at a rate 100 times faster than ever
recorded, with some estimating that by the end of the 21st century, the surface waters in some of the worlds
oceans may not be able to support shell-bearing plankton [2]. The IPCC report released in February 2007
stated that even with significant CO2 emission reductions, the oceans would still see a decrease in pH by
about 0.14 units. Without a reduction in CO2 emissions, pH is expected to decrease another 0.35 units, which
is too low for some organisms to form shells [4].
Historical evidence shows that plankton does not recover easily from catastrophes. When a population
crash occurred across the oceans 65 million years ago, it took approximately 3 million years for the
plankton to recover [2]. How the plankton around the world will be affected in the long-term by abrupt
climate change is difficult to predict. We do know that with less plankton, ecosystems from the poles to the
tropics, and from freshwater to the salty seas will be negatively impacted.

3. Acidification causes a bad effect on the ocean and hurts plankton.

Scott Doney 2007 (May 10, “Effects of Climate Change and Ocean Acidification on Living Marine Resources”,
Senior Scientist on Marine Chemistry & Geochemistry Department at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,
Written testimony presented to the U.S. Senate Committee on Oceans, Atmospheres, Fisheries, and Coast Guard,
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=8915&tid=282&cid=27206, Accessed 6/30/08)

Climate change and ocean acidification will exacerbate other human influences on fisheries and
marine ecosystems such as over-fishing, habitat destruction, pollution, excess nutrients, and invasive
species. Thermal effects arise both directly, via effects of elevated temperature and lower pH on individual
organisms, and indirectly via changes to the ecosystems on which they depend for food and habitat.
Acidification harms shell-forming plants and animals including surface and deep-water corals, many
plankton, pteropods (marine snails), mollusks (clams, oysters), and lobsters (Orr et al., 2005). Many of
these organisms provide critical habitat and/or food sources for other organisms. Emerging evidence
suggests that larval and juvenile fish may also be susceptible to pH changes. Marine life has survived large
climate and acidification variations in the past, but the projected rates of climate change and ocean
acidification over the next century are much faster than experienced by the planet in the past except for
rare, catastrophic events in the geological record.
One concern is that climate change will alter the rates and patterns of ocean productivity. Small,
photosynthetic phytoplankton grow in the well-illuminated upper ocean, forming the base of the
marine food web, supporting the fish stocks we harvest, and underlying the biogeochemical cycling of
carbon and many other key elements in the sea. Phytoplankton growth depends upon temperature and
the availability of light and nutrients, including nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and iron. Most of the nutrient
supply to the surface ocean comes from the mixing and upwelling of cold, nutrient rich water from below. An exception is iron, which
has an important additional source from mineral dust swept off the desert regions of the continents and transported off-shore from
coastal ocean sediments. The geographic distribution of phytoplankton and biological productivity is
determined largely by ocean circulation and upwelling, with the highest levels found along the Equator, in
temperate and polar latitudes and along the western boundaries of continents.
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Warming Impacts – Plankton – A2: Resilience


Surviving past climate changes doesn’t matter. The current period of warming will be more
rapid than any past climate change.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the [IPCC]”,
http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/ar4/wg1/faq/ar4wg1faq-6-2.pdf.)

A different matter is the current rate of warming. Are more rapid global climate changes recorded in proxy
data? The largest temperature changes of the past million years are the glacial cycles, during which the
global mean temperature changed by 4°C to 7°C between ice ages and warm interglacial periods (local
changes were much larger, for example near the continental ice sheets). However, the data indicate that the
global warming at the end of an ice age was a gradual process taking about 5,000 years (see Section
6.3). It is thus clear that the current rate of global climate change is much more rapid and very unusual
in the context of past changes. The much-discussed abrupt climate shifts during glacial times (see Section
6.3) are not counter-examples, since they were probably due to changes in ocean heat transport, which
would be unlikely to affect the global mean temperature. Further back in time, beyond ice core data,
the time resolution of sediment cores and other archives does not resolve changes as rapid as the
present warming. Hence, although large climate changes have occurred in the past, there is no
evidence that these took place at a faster rate than present warming. If projections of approximately
5°C warming in this century (the upper end of the range) are realised, then the Earth will have
experienced about the same amount of global mean warming as it did at the end of the last ice age;
there is no evidence that this rate of possible future global change was matched by any comparable
global temperature increase of the last 50 million years.
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Warming Impacts – Plankton – A2: Marine Mammals Turn


Warming does not kill mammals causing an increase in plankton. The reason that
mammals die is because they lose their food supply in plankton.

Debbie MacKenzie 2003 (May 8, “Multi-million dollar questions and broad changing patterns in marine life”,
http://www.fisherycrisis.com/DFO/commons.htm, Accessed 6/30/08)

The problem is that not only are populations of larger marine animals that changing today, such as the targets of the
commercial fisheries, but that changing trends are also apparent now throughout the entire marine ecosystem. All of
the little things are changing too. It is very important to consider the animal fraction of the marine plankton
(zooplankton), the portion that provides food directly to small fish, and to realize that production/abundance
of these tiny, critical organisms is NOT now being sustained at former levels. The Department of Fisheries
and Oceans (DFO) has documented a significant declining trend in the numbers of zooplankton in Atlantic
Canadian waters(1, 2), yet the department has failed to identify the reason for this plankton decline as an important
research focus. This is a serious omission, since zooplankton production has important implications for fish
production as well as for the continued survival of other larger forms of marine life, such as whales, seals, and
seabirds. The declining trend in zooplankton suggests that the entire marine ecosystem may be slowing its
rate of organic production. And if that is true, then the ramifications of this development extend far beyond the
interests of commercial fisheries.

The loss in plankton is causing casualties among its predators.

Reuters 2003 (August 20, “Dying Plankton Harms Idyllic Seychelles Sea Life”,
http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/21917/story.htm, Accessed 6/30/08)

Masses of plankton, dying as global warming heats up the waters off the Seychelles, are threatening
marine life in the Indian Ocean tourist haven, a government official said on Tuesday.
The dead plankton, as it decays, depletes the oxygen in sea water and in effect suffocates other forms of
marine life.
The sludge also dulls the Seychelles' turquoise waters and tends to turn them green as algae feast on the
plankton.
"North Mahe is most affected but (the islands of) Praslin, Ile Cerf and Silhouette have also been hit," said
Jude Florentine, the country's director general for pollution control and environment impact monitoring.
He blamed the phenomenon on rising sea temperatures caused by global warming, coupled with winds
pushing the algae toward the islands.
Some fish and sea cucumbers were likely to be among the first casualties of the dying plankton,
Florentine said, adding that residents have already reported seeing some dead fish
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Warming Impacts – Coral Reefs


Cutting emissions is key to save coral.

ABC News (“Emissions cut needed to save reef: researcher”, 10/18,


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/18/2062492.htm)

A University of Queensland researcher says the earth's corals could become extinct within decades
because of increasing acid levels in the ocean. Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg says carbon dioxide
emissions must be reduced by 90 per cent by 2050 to protect coral reefs. He says acid levels are
increasing as the ocean absorbs higher levels of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. He says if carbon
dioxide levels in the oceans rise to 500 parts per million, it could be devastating.

Warming causes deadly coral calcification through ocean CO2 uptake.

USA Today 07 (“Scientists: Global warming could kill coral reefs by 2050”, 12/13,
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2007-12-13-coral-reefs_n.htm)

Rising carbon emissions might kill off the ocean's coral reefs by 2050, scientists warn in today's edition of
the journal Science. The review article, co-authored by 17 marine scientists in seven countries, including
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is the most comprehensive review so far
of the catastrophic threat global warming poses to coral, and by extension many ocean species. Burning
coal, oil and gas adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, the same gas used to give soft drinks fizz. Just as
carbon dioxide is absorbed into the drink, ocean water absorbs it from the air. When the carbon dioxide
enters the ocean, it makes the water more acidic. That interferes with the ability of coral to calcify their
skeletons: They can no longer grow and they begin to die. Coral reefs are important because they act as
hatcheries and nurseries for open ocean fish. They also protect coasts from storms, and provide fish,
recreation and tourism dollars. It is estimated that coral reef fisheries in Asia feed one billion people. The
total economic value of coral is estimated to be $30 billion. But global warming is seriously threatening
that crucial component of the ocean biodiversity, the marine scientists said.

We must address warming and cut emissions to save reefs.

Environment News Service 04 (“Warming Climate Linked to Reef Destruction”, 12/6, http://www.ens-
newswire.com/ens/dec2004/2004-12-06-01.asp)

Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) dissolved in sea water make it more acid, which
slows the building of coral skeletons, a process called calcification. Coral experts say that calcification is
likely to be reduced by up to 40 percent in corals when there is a doubling of CO2 emissions, which is
predicted to happen by the middle of this century. Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas linked to
global warming. Emitted by the burning of coal, oil and gas, it has been building up in the atmosphere since the start of the Industrial Revolution,
trapping the Sun's heat close to the planet, warming the land and sea. At the Buenos Aires conference, some 5,000 participants from the Convention’s 189
Parties as well as from nongovernmental organizations and intergovernmental organizations will review progress under the Convention, develop a
framework for international cooperation on adapting to the negative impacts of climate change, and address how to support developing countries as they
adapt to a warming world. The reefs the most at risk of severe future degradation are in East Africa, South, South-East, and East Asia, and throughout the
Caribbean, according to "Status of Coral Reefs of the World 2004." Coral Bleached brain coral in the Florida Keys (Photo courtesy U.S. Geological Survey,
Center for Coastal Geology) In the Caribbean, yearly economic losses of up to US$870 million will occur by 2015 if nothing is done to halt the current
"To save coral reefs, governments must reduce CO2 emissions
decline in the region's coral reefs, the report warns.
quickly, but also create marine protected areas to help ensure that corals are protected from all
threats," said Dr. Simon Cripps, director of WWF's Global Marine Programme. "Coral reefs are worth
more than US$30 billion annually, we can't afford to lose their social and economic value because of
climate change or any other threat." WWF is one of the 20 organizations that published the report.
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Warming Impacts – Coral Reefs – Survival Impact


Reefs are critical to human survival.

IPS 07 (“Environment: Between a Reef and a Hard Place”, 11/12, http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=40021)


Reefs are not only spectacular-looking habitats, they are the world's largest living organisms easily visible
from space. Their economic and biological importance is staggering. While occupying less than one
percent of the oceans, they are home to or a vital resource for 25 to 33 percent of the oceans' creatures.
The World Conservation Union (IUCN) considers coral reefs one of the life-support systems essential for
human survival.
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Warming Impacts – Coral – A2: Calcification Turn


Increased warming is causing weaker skeletons in the oceans and ruining the diversity of
coral reefs.

Australian Institute of Marine Science 2005 (February 24, “Issues: Coral reefs and climate change”,
http://www3.aims.gov.au/pages/about/communications/issues/coral-reefs-and-climate-change-2005.html, Accessed
6/29/08)

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2, the principal greenhouse gas) is changing the chemistry of
the oceans. About 30% of the CO2 released into the atmosphere by human activities since the Industrial
Revolution has been absorbed by the oceans. This changes the chemistry of the oceans, which become more
acidic (lower pH) and these change the concentrations of carbonate and bicarbonate ions. Many marine
organisms (corals, calcareous algae, shells, benthic and planktonic organisms such as foramanifera and
coccolithophores) use calcium and carbonate ions from seawater to secrete calcium carbonate skeletons.
Changing the ocean chemistry essentially shifts the geochemical equation by which these organisms
"calcify". The implication of continued change in ocean chemistry due to rising CO2 is that these
organisms will not calcify as well as they did in pre-industrial times and thus produce weaker skeletons
and grow more slowly. For coral reefs weaker structures would reduce their resilience to the natural
forces of erosion and slower growth will set back the rate of recovery after bleaching and other
disturbances. Also, changing ocean chemistry will alter the deep ocean depths at which dissolution of
calcium carbonate skeletons of different mineralogies occurs. Modelling and experimental (eg
Biosphere 2 mesocosm) studies have demonstrated that increased CO2 reduces coral calcification
rates. A recent media report, based on respected coral reef researcher Jonathan Erez’s work in Israel,
provides the first observational evidence from the field that lower pH is associated with reduced coral
growth. Calcification rate also depends on water temperature and AIMS provided evidence (Lough & Barnes
2000) that several long-lived massive Porites on the GBR had increased their calcification rate towards the
end of the 20th century (up to ~1980 when cores were collected) which matched the observed rise in GBR
water temperatures (AIMS is currently examining more recent coral growth rates from short coral cores).
This finding generated some controversy, as it did not match the model or experimental findings. The
conclusion from this work was that, at least initially, some corals might respond more to rising water
temperatures than to changes in ocean chemistry. More recently scientists from UNSW, CSIRO and AIMS
(McNeil et al., 2004) published model results suggesting that the warming effect on coral calcification
(in one coral species) outweighs the change in ocean chemistry and that coral calcification will increase
with global warming. These controversial findings are currently being debated in the scientific
literature. These studies focused on the most heat resistant type of coral and did not consider the
overall effects on reef calcification rates of the widespread death of the majority of corals that are less
heat resistant. How much ocean warming reefs can withstand will, however, be limited by when
temperature thresholds for coral bleaching are regularly exceeded. The general scientific consensus is that
changes in ocean chemistry due to rising CO2 has serious implications for coral reefs and other
calcifying marine organisms of the open ocean and could well alter the makeup of marine ecosystems
and weaken coral reef structures. There is clearly much more we need to learn about the effects of rising
CO2 and marine calcification and the importance of this problem and its impacts on marine ecosystems is
recognized by a planned international Workshop on the Impacts of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 on Coral
Reefs and Other Marine Calcifiers, 18-20 April 2005, St Petersburg, Florida sponsored by
NSF/NOAA/USGS (Lough from AIMS will be attending).
Coral reefs of the world are under threat from both local and global-scale stresses. The enhanced
Greenhouse effect (through bleaching and ocean chemistry changes) is likely to alter the community
structure of reefs, including the world’s best-managed reefs of Australia. There is a clear scientific
consensus (eg Wilkinson 2004) that reducing and reversing local human pressures on coral reefs has to
be accompanied by reduction in greenhouse gas emissions if coral reefs are to survive
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Warming Impacts – Floods

Warming leads to intense flooding in densely populated areas.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
26)

Coasts _ Coasts are projected to be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, due to
climate change and sea level rise. The effect will be exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures on
coastal areas (very high confidence). {WGII 6.3, 6.4, SPM} _ By the 2080s, many millions more people
than today are projected to experience floods every year due to sea level rise. The numbers affected
will be largest in the densely populated and low-lying megadeltas of Asia and Africa while small islands
are especially vulnerable (very high confidence). {WGII 6.4, 6.5, Table 6.11, SPM}

Floods caused by global warming devastate sustainable development, biodiversity, and


drinking water supplies.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
27)

Available research suggests a significant future increase in heavy rainfall events in many regions, including
some in which the mean rainfall is projected to decrease. The resulting increased flood risk poses challenges to
society, physical infrastructure and water quality. It is likely that up to 20% of the world population will live
in areas where river flood potential could increase by the 2080s. Increases in the frequency and severity of
floods and droughts are projected to adversely affect sustainable development. Increased temperatures will
further affect the physical, chemical and biological properties of freshwater lakes and rivers, with
predominantly adverse impacts on many individual freshwater species, community composition and water
quality. In coastal areas, sea level rise will exacerbate water resource constraints due to increased salinisation of
groundwater supplies. {WGI 11.2-11.9; WGII 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 4.4}
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Warming Impacts – Econ


Warming strains the global economy by devastating coastal industry and exacerbates
poverty.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
26)

_ The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally those in coastal and river flood
plains, those whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources and those in areas
prone to extreme weather events, especially where rapid urbanisation is occurring. {WGII 7.1, 7.3, 7.4,
7.5, SPM} _ Poor communities can be especially vulnerable, in particular those concentrated in high-risk
areas. {WGII 7.2, 7.4, 5.4, SPM}

Every delay in mitigation of emissions increases inevitable economic damage and increases
the risk of warming-induced economic collapse.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
47)

The macro-economic costs of mitigation generally rise with the stringency of the stabilisation target
and are relatively higher when derived from baseline scenarios characterized by high emission levels.
{WGIII SPM} There is high agreement and medium evidence that in 2050 globaln average macro-
economic costs for multi-gas mitigation towards stabilisation between 710 and 445ppm CO2-eq are
between a 1% gain to a 5.5% decrease of global GDP (Table 5.2). This corresponds to slowing average
annual global GDP growth by less than 0.12 percentage points. Estimated GDP losses by 2030 are on average
lower and show a smaller spread compared to 2050 (Table 5.2). For specific countries and sectors, costs vary
considerably from the global average.33 {WGIII 3.3, 13.3, SPM}
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Warming Impacts – Disease


Warming will strain the health care industry while increasing infectious disease spread.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report”, 12/12-17, p.
26)

The health status of millions of people is projected to be affected through, for example, increases in
malnutrition; increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme weather events; increased burden
of diarrhoeal diseases; increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higher concentrations
of ground-level ozone in urban areas related to climate change; and the altered spatial distribution of
some infectious diseases. {WGI 7.4, Box 7.4; WGII 8.ES, 8.2, 8.4, SPM} Climate change is projected
to bring some benefits in temperate areas, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure, and
some mixed effects such as changes in range and transmission potential of malaria in
Africa. Overall it is expected that benefits will be outweighed by the negative health effects of rising
temperatures, especially in developing countries. {WGII 8.4, 8.7, 8ES, SPM}

Warming will increase disease proliferation.

Pauchari 07 (R.K., IPCC chairman, “Acceptance Speech for the Nobel Peace Prize Awarded to the [IPCC]”,
12/10, p. 6, http://www.ipcc.ch/)

The health status of millions of people is projected to be affected through, for example, increases in
malnutrition; increased deaths, diseases, and injury due to extreme weather events; increased burden of
diarrhoeal diseases; increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higher concentrations of
ground- level ozone in urban areas related to climate change; and the altered spatial distribution of some
infectious diseases.
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Warming Impacts – Refugees (1/5)


Warming empirically intensifies tropical storms worldwide to devastate infrastructure and
economies while creating mass refugee flows.
Brown 08 (Lester R., Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, p. 62-63)
Rising seas are not the only threat that comes with elevated global temperatures. Higher surface water
temperatures in the tropical oceans mean more energy radiating into the atmosphere to drive tropical
storm systems, leading to more-destructive storms. The combination of rising seas, more
powerful storms, and stronger storm surges can be devastating.56 Just how
devastating this combination can be became evident in late August 2005, when Hurricane
Katrina came onshore on the U.S. Gulf Coast near New Orleans. In some Gulf
Coast towns, Katrina’s powerful 28-foot-high storm surge did not leave a single structure
standing. New Orleans survived the initial hit but was flooded when the inland levees were
breached and water covered everything in large parts of the city except for
the rooftops, where thousands of people were stranded. Even in August 2006, a year
after the storm had passed, the most damaged areas of the city remained without water,
power, sewage disposal, garbage collection, or telecommunications.57 With advance warning of the
storm and official urging to evacuate coastal areas, 1 million or so evacuees fled northward into
Louisiana or to neighboring states of Texas and Arkansas. Of this total, some 290,000 have not yet
returned home and will likely never do so. These storm evacuees are the world’s first large wave of
climate refugees.58 Katrina was the most financially destructive hurricane ever to make landfall
anywhere. It was one of eight hurricanes that hit the southeastern United
States in 2004 and 2005. As a result of the unprecedented damage,
insurance premiums have doubled, tripled, and even in some especially
vulnerable situations gone up 10-fold. This enormous jump in insurance
costs is lowering coastal real estate values and driving people and
businesses out of highly exposed states like Florida.59 The devastation caused by
Katrina was not an isolated incident. In the fall of 1998, Hurricane Mitch—one of the most
powerful storms ever to come out of the Atlantic, with winds approaching 200 miles per hour—hit the
east coast of Central America. As atmospheric conditions stalled the normal
northward progression of the storm, some 2 meters of rain were dumped on parts of
Honduras and Nicaragua within a few days. The deluge collapsed homes, factories, and schools,
leaving them in ruins. It destroyed roads and bridges. Seventy percent of the crops and much of the
topsoil in Honduras were washed away—topsoil that had accumulated over long stretches of geological
time. Huge mudslides destroyed villages, burying some local populations.60
The storm left 11,000 dead. Thousands more, buried or washed out to sea,
were never found. The basic infrastructure— the roads and bridges in Honduras and Nicaragua
—was largely destroyed. President Flores of Honduras summed it up this way:
“Overall, what was destroyed over several days took us 50 years to build.” The damage from this
storm, exceeding the annual gross domestic product of the two countries, set their economic
development back by 20 years.61 In 2004, Japan experienced a record 10 typhoons (hurricanes) that
collectively caused $10 billion worth of losses. During the same season, Florida was hit by 4 of the 10
most costly hurricanes in U.S. history. These 4 hurricanes together generated insurance claims of $22
billion.62

Disasters caused by climate change lead to mass migration and war.

Pauchari 07 (R.K., IPCC chairman, “Acceptance Speech for the Nobel Peace Prize Awarded to the [IPCC]”,
12/10, p. 4-5, http://www.ipcc.ch/)
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Migration and movement of people is a particularly critical source of potential conflict. Migration,
usually temporary and often from rural to urban areas, is a common response to calamities such as floods
and famines. But as in the case of vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, where multiple stresses
could be at work on account of a diversity of causes and conditions, so also in the case of migration,
individuals may have multiple motivations and they could be displaced by multiple factors.
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Warming Impacts – Refugees (2/5)


Rising sea levels create massive refugee flows that devastate shorelines.

Brown 08 (Lester R., Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, p. 60-61)
The International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) has analyzed the effect of a 10-meter
rise in sea level, providing a sense of what the melting of the world’s largest ice sheets could mean. The IIED
study begins by pointing out that 634 million people live along coasts at or below 10 meters above sea
level, in what they call the Low Elevation Coastal Zone. This massive vulnerable group includes one
eighth of the world’s urban population.52 One of the countries most vulnerable is China, with 144
million potential climate refugees. India and Bangladesh are next, with 63 and 62 million respectively.
Viet Nam has 43 million vulnerable people, and Indonesia, 42 million. Others in the top 10 include
Japan with 30 million, Egypt with 26 million, and the United States with 23 million.53 The world has
never seen such a massive potential displacement of people. Some of the refugees could simply retreat to
higher ground within their own country. Others—facing extreme crowding in the interior regions of their
homeland— would seek refuge elsewhere. Bangladesh, already one of the world’s most densely
populated countries, would face a far greater concentration: in effect, 62 million of its people would be
forced to move in with the 97 million living on higher ground. Would a more sparsely populated
country like the United States be willing to accommodate an influx of rising-sea refugees while it was
attempting to relocate 23 million of its own citizens?54 Not only would some of the world’s largest
cities, such as Shanghai, Kolkata, London, and New York, be partly or entirely inundated, but vast areas
of productive farmland would also be lost. The rice-growing river deltas and floodplains of Asia would
be covered with salt water, depriving Asia of part of its food supply. This loss of prime farmland would
parallel the loss of river water as Himalayan glaciers disappear.55 In the end, the question is whether
governments are strong enough to withstand the political and economic stress of relocating large numbers of
people while suffering losses of housing and industrial facilities. The relocation is not only an internal matter,
as a large share of the displaced people will want to move to other countries. Can governments withstand
these stresses, or will more and more states fail?
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Global warming is a critical component of the displacement of millions as refugees.

Marlowe Hood 7 (April 1, AFP News, “Global Warming Could Lead to Millions of Climate Refugees”,
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Global_Warming_Could_Lead_To_Millions_Of_Climate_Refugees_999.html, Accessed
6/28/08)
A decade or so ago, greens coined the term "climate refugees" to describe the future victims of global
warming. Today, experts say such refugees may already number in the millions and could reach 200
million by century's end, stoking tensions and potential for conflict.
They point to Inuit communities literally undercut by melting ice in North America and Greenland, to
the thirsty peoples around central Africa's fast-shrinking Lake Chad and the tens of thousands
displaced from New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina.
In the future, these ranks could be swollen by refugees fleeing flooded homes, parched farmland or
wrecked economies, from small island states in the Pacific to tropical Africa and the Mediterranean
rim.
"The issue of environmental refugees promises to rank as one of the foremost human crises or our
time," Norman Myers, an Oxford University professor.
What constitutes a refugee can stoke emotive debate.
Critics of the term say it is a politically-charged misnomer, liable to hype or inaccuracy.
Climate refugees, they argue, should not be confused with people who flee their homes because of ecological stress caused by over-population, pollution, abuse of freshwater or other
acts of greed, ill judgement or bad planning.
In the case of Katrina, scientists acknowledge a single extreme weather event cannot by itself be pinned to a long-term phenomenon, although they also point out that warmer seas
provide raw fuel to make hurricanes more vicious.
global warming is already amplifying environmental problems in many countries -- and in
But they also say that
the future, it will almost certainly help to push vulnerable communities over the edge.
"There is going to be a lot of population movement linked to climate," said Thomas Downing, director of the Stockholm
Environment Institute in Oxford.
"Not all will be permanent refugees, but when you add climate to other forces that push people beyond the capacity to cope, the numbers will increase."
A Red Cross and Red Crescent study in 2000 said 25 million people had left their homes because of environmental stress, roughly as many as the refugees from armed conflict.
the number could double by 2010 and reach as
Myers, one of the leading experts on the link between climate change and forced migration, says
high as 200 million "once global warming kicks in."
For fragile island nations such as Tuvalu in the South Pacific and Maldives in the Indian Ocean, global
warming poses a triple threat.
Warmer seas spell a threat to the coral upon which islanders depend to attract both fish and tourists;
decreasing rainfall threatens drinking water supplies; and higher sea levels pose a threat by storm
flooding or even inundation.
In the densely populated flood-plains of Bangladesh, rising seas will not only ruin fertile flood plains
but stoke the storm surges that periodically ravage the low-lying nation. Drought or water stress is
another problem. According to one study, the crippling heatwave that struck Western Europe in 2003 and
left tens of thousands dead is likely to be commonplace by 2100, a scenario that is especially bleak for people
on the Mediterranean coast and its hinterland.
But even in cases where global warming is clearly to blame, there exists no clear mechanism to help its
victims or provide legal redress against the polluters who caused the problem. "There is no legal
recognition of people displaced by environmental causes" and no international treaty protecting them,
explained Stephanie Long of Friends of the Earth International.
On Friday, the UN's top expert forum on global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) was to issue an update of the scientific knowledge for global warming.
A draft IPCC document seen by AFP said Earth's surface temperature could rise by up to 4.5 C (8.1 F) or
even higher if carbon dioxide (CO2) levels double over pre-industrial levels.
On current trends, this pollution level could be reached early in the next half of this century.
Sea levels would rise by between 28 and 43 centimetres (11.2-17.2 inches).
Downing says the refugee issue is getting short shrift among both scientists and policymakers. Tens of
millions of people without homes or jobs provides fuel for friction.
"The IPCC should be assessing the big risks -- and refugees should be one of those issues, in so far as it
has the capacity to affect world stability."
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Warming Impacts – Refugees (4/5)


Climate change is a huge component of the refugee problem.

Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog 2008 (April, Norweigan Refugee Council, “Future floods of refugees: A
comment on climate change, conflict and forced migration”, http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf, Accessed
6/28/08)

Climate change will have several impacts on the environment which in turn can impact on forced
migration and conflict. Gradual environmental degradation and slow-onset disasters such as drought
are likely to increase due to climate change. Most vulnerable are developing countries where large
sections of the population live directly from agriculture and many of these from subsistence farming.
Importantly, adaptation, involving for example different land-use techniques and livelihood diversification,
would lessen the need to migrate. Climate change is also likely to lead to an increase in the frequency
and severity of sudden disasters such as floods and storms. Many of the affected are particularly
vulnerable (typically poor) people in developing countries. Hence, they have little mobility. Climate
change impacts can impoverish them and reduce their mobility even further. As is the case with
drought, sudden disaster impact depends on several political and socio-economic factors, including
adaptation measures (for example flood defence infrastructure). Forced migration is also likely to result
from rising sea levels, and certain low-lying island states may disappear altogether, raising difficult
questions of statelessness.
Forced migration can be triggered by – and itself also trigger – environmental conflicts. In transit or at
the place of destination, migration can (be perceived to and/or) contribute to a competition for already
scarce resources such as land and water. Most conflicts with an environmental element have historically
occurred within countries. The degradation of freshwater resources can trigger competition and conflict.
Sudden disasters such as storms and floods often highlight existing domestic problems, revealing
weaknesses of the government in power and may thereby exacerbate conflict. Conflict potential
normally depends on a range of socio-economic and political factors often similar to those that can trigger
forced migration. Governance and the role of the state are often crucial factors. In fact, cooperation rather
than conflict may be the response to some environmental challenges.
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Addressing climate change is a critical component of addressing the problem of refugees.

Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog 2008 (April, Norweigan Refugee Council, “Future floods of refugees: A
comment on climate change, conflict and forced migration”, http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf, Accessed
6/28/08)

If it is better to prevent than to cure, one should also try to deal with the root causes of forced
migration and conflict. Adaptation to climate change in developing countries must be made a top
priority along with mitigation. Alongside more typical information and infrastructure
measures, addressing general factors of forced migration and conflict can contribute to
vulnerability reduction and adaptation. A broad approach to climate change adaptation is
needed. Hopefully, climate change will foster a new and stronger sense of solidarity. It provides an
opportunity for cooperation in addressing global issues such as conflict and displacement.
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Warming Impacts – Refugees – War Impact


Refugees are a critical source of conflict.

Crispin Tickell 2001 (March 8, Lecture at Oxford University, “Risks of conflict – resources and population
pressures”, http://www.crispintickell.com/page13.html, Accessed 6/28/08)
Another prime threat arises from refugees. They are a consequence as well as a cause of
destabilization. Refugees fall into three broad categories: political refugees (those covered by the UN High Commission for Refugees); economic
migrants (those who move from poorer to apparently richer parts of the world); and environmental refugees (those driven out of their homes by changing
environmental conditions). Of course there is some blurring between the three groups. Yet there has been a reluctance to recognise environmental refugees
as such.
All categories have greatly increased in number over the last quarter century. In January 2000 there
were over 22 million political refugees. Environmental refugees, as they have no legal status, are more
difficult to quantify, but a 1995 estimate put them at 25 million, with particularly large numbers in
Africa south of the Sahara. In the circumstances I have described, the total number could greatly increase during this century.
It is worth looking in more detail at one of the issues raised by refugees. At present a heavy concentration of people is living in low lying coastal areas along
Nearly one third of humanity lives within 60 kilometres of a coastline. A rise in
the world's great river systems.
mean sea level of only 25 cm would have substantial effects, and the predictions are for much more in
the next 100 years. The industrial countries might be able to construct new sea defences to protect
vulnerable areas, but even they would have difficulty with coping with high tides and storm surges of a
kind likely to be more common.
For most poor countries such defences would be out of the question. Many of those living and working in, for example,
the delta areas of the Nile, the Ganges and the Yangtze and the Zambezi would be forced out of their homes and livelihood. Such islands as the Maldives in
the Indian Ocean, and Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands in the Pacific would soon become uninhabitable. Bangladesh with its population of well
over 100 million, and Egypt with its population of almost as much, would be particularly affected. A rise in sea level beyond half a metre would have more
drastic results. The world would look a different place.
What then could be the scale of the human problem ten, twenty, or forty years from now? Even
allowing for piecemeal, gradual
responses year by year to the imperatives of change, it would be very large. Plucking a figure from the
air, if only 1% (a very low estimate) of a world population of eight billion in 2040 were affected, that
would still mean some 80 million refugees of all kinds; and 5% (again a low estimate) would produce
400 million. Even 80 million represents a problem of an order of magnitude which no one has yet had
to face.
Nor is it all. Refugees create their own problems. In some cases they can return to their countries of
origin. In others they can be resettled. Economic migrants or environmental refugees fall into another
category whether they stay in their own country or cross into another. At present they are mostly a
phenomenon in poor countries. Shelter, food and medical care are hard to find. There is little prospect
of return. They often come from another environment (for example highland Ethiopians are forced
down to the plains), and bring with them alien customs, religious practices, eating habits, agricultural
methods, and - not least - diseases, with susceptibility to local pathogens.
Most have great difficulty in adjusting themselves to new circumstances. Like normal refugees, they mostly depend on charity. Resettlement is never easy,
and full assimilation is rare. In
any numbers they tend to spread their poverty around them, and to compound
the problem from which they first tried to escape. In a world of rapid change they would constitute
only one of myriad animal species trying to cope with disruption of their way of life.
Within a country refugees would represent a dangerous element in what would anyway be increasing
difficulties of social and economic management. Some governments can cope, some evidently cannot.
But few outside the industrial world have the structure or resources to manage a continuing crisis.
Such secondary effects as disorder, terrorism, economic breakdown, disease, or bankruptcy, could
become endemic. We are all too familiar with them already.
Between countries and regions there would be still greater difficulties. To a greater or lesser extent all would be suffering, and undergoing adjustment. Thus willingness to help others
the pressure of recognizable aliens
would be limited, the more so if such help threatened to put at risk the adjustment process at home. In times of trouble
is liable to ignite popular resentment with the speed of a brush fire.
In industrial countries many feel rightly or wrongly that there is an absolute limit to the number of
people from other countries and cultures which can be absorbed without damaging social cohesion and
national identity. Some of them certainly welcome migrants with particular qualities and skills.
Countries with ageing populations could find a well controlled infusion of the young an advantage. But
general resistance to refugees has become popular politics. They can even bedevil foreign policy. As we
have recently seen, Albanian, Kurdish, Tamil, Ethopian and Eritrean refugees often want to use their
safety abroad to play politics at home. This can be profoundly embarrassing to the host country. Any
aggravation of the refugee problem would only strengthen such resistance.
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Warming Impacts – Fires (1/2)


Warming causes conditions conducive to forest fires. Fires have increased four times in the
last sixteen years
West, Larry (Environmental issues critic) “global warming linked to forest fires” May 25, 2007
http://environment.about.com/b/2007/05/25/global-warming-linked-to-rising-number-of-us-forest-fires.htm

Forest fires in the Western United States have occurred more frequently, burned longer, and covered
more acres since 1987—and global warming is a big part of the underlying cause—according to a
research paper published in July 2006 by the journal Science. Researchers at the Scripps Institution of
Oceanography and the University of Arizona found four times as many large wildfires occurred in
Western forests between 1987 and 2003 compared to the previous 16 years. The more recent fires
burned 6.5 more land, the average duration of the fires increased from 7.8 to 37 days, and the overall
fire season during those years grew by an average of 78 days. Those changes corresponded to an
average 1.5-degree rise in temperature throughout the American West during the same time period.
According to the study, the first to link global warming to wildfires, the warmer temperatures due to
climate change have led to longer, drier seasons, creating ideal conditions for forest fires. "The real message
of the paper is not as much about forest management," said Steven Running, a University of Montana ecology professor and one of the
study's peer reviewers, according to an article in the Sacremento Bee. "It's that this is yet another dimension of global warming's impact.
To me, it's the equivalent of the hurricanes on the Gulf Coast. This is our hurricane."

Warming => Fires


O’brien, Dennis (Baltimore Sun) “Climate change link seen in surge of Wildfires Study Correlates warming with
fires” July 7, 2006 http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/07/07/MNG7JJR8521.DTL

Rising temperatures and earlier melting of snowpacks have sharply increased the number of Western
wildfires -- and scientists say to expect more of the same if the trend persists. Researchers at the Scripps
Institution of Oceanography and the University of Arizona examined 34 years of forest fire reports in 11
Western states and found the number of fires increased in size and severity since 1987, the same year
that spring and summer temperatures began to rise. "It's a very good snapshot of what's been
happening in the Western forests over the past three decades," said lead author Anthony Westerling, a fire
climatologist at UC Merced. Westerling conducted the research while at the Scripps Institution. The findings
were published today in Science. The researchers examined U.S. Forest Service and National Park
Service records of every forest fire that burned at least 1,000 acres from 1970 to 2003. They found that
of 1,166 fires in that period, four-fifths of them, or about 900, occurred after 1987. They also found that air
temperatures from 1987 to 2003 were 1.6 degrees higher than during the previous 17 years; that 6.5 times
more acreage burned during that warmer period; and that the firefighting season increased by 78 days, the
study says. The reason is simple: Warmer springs and longer dry seasons are creating more kindling in
the Western woods, the researchers say. The biggest increase in forest fires was in the northern Rockies, in
the mountains around Yellowstone National Park and the Bitterroot Range, at elevations between 6,000 and
8,000 feet, the study says. It is in those areas that melting snowpacks have the most significant role in
determining forest fire risk, Westerling said. The study does not prove that human-induced climate change
is causing more forest fires, Westerling said. But it does show that more fires are likely to start if the
warming trend continues. Researchers did not address why temperatures have risen. The study says
temperatures in the 11 states from 1987 to 2003 were the warmest since 1895, when record keeping
began. The study does not examine trends beyond the Western states. Nationwide, wildfires burned an
average of 3.6 million acres in the 1990s, but that number shot up to a record 8.4 million acres in 2000.
That remained a record until 2005, when 8.6 million acres burned, according to the National
Interagency Fire Center.
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Wild fires cause immense CO2 output and environmental destruction


Environmental Research Web 07
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/31742
Christine Wiedinmyer, of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, estimates that the southern California fires released 7.9 million
metric tonnes of carbon dioxide between 19th–26th October. That’s equivalent to about one quarter of the average monthly emissions from fossil
fuel burning throughout California. Wiedinmyer and colleague Jason Neff at the University of Colorado use satellite observations of fires and a
computer model to estimate the amount of carbon dioxide emitted based on the mass of vegetation burned. They reckon that their calculations
have a margin of error of about 50% from difficulties in measuring the extent of the fire precisely and because different types of blaze emit
different amounts of carbon dioxide. On a national scale, the pair calculate that fires in the US release about 290 million
metric tonnes of carbon dioxide each year – about 4–6% of the amount that the country emits by fossil fuel burning. “A striking
implication of very large wildfires is that a severe fire season lasting only one or two months can release as
much carbon as the annual emissions from the entire transportation or energy sector of an individual state,"
they write in a paper in Carbon Balance and Management. Of course, forests will re-grow after fires, re-absorbing the
carbon dioxide released but that process may take decades. Recent research into boreal forests in Canada found that fires
can transform the forest from a weak carbon sink to a weak carbon source by altering the balance of
vegetation present. And fires cause other environmental concerns such as the release of large amounts of ash,
destruction of topsoil and damage to wildlife and habitat – not to mention loss of human life and damage to
people’s homes. Foam released by firefighters may also get into rivers, causing damage to ecosystems at a
later date.

Wild fires cause severe environmental damage and economic cost


FAO Website, Accessed June 30, 2008
(Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations)
http://www.fao.org/forestry/firemanagement/en/
FIRE HAS BEEN A MAJOR INFLUENCE on the development and management of many of the world’s forests. Some forest ecosystems have
evolved in response to frequent fires from natural as well as human causes, but most others are negatively affected by wildfire. Every year
millions of hectares of the world’s forests are consumed by fire, which results in enormous economic losses
because of destroyed timber, burnt housing, high costs of fire suppression, damage to environmental,
recreational and amenity values and loss of life and livelihoods.

Warming-intensified wildfires will devastate biodiversity.


Mongabay.com 06 (environmental science and conservation newsletter, “Global Warming Threatens U.S.”,
10/6, http://news.mongabay.com/2006/1006-nwf.html)
Drier conditions will exacerbate wildfires. The acreage burned by wildfires is expected to double in size
across 11 western states between 2070-2100, according to recent studies. Higher temperatures will affect
regional biodiversity especially cold-water fisheries (i.e. trout and salmon), wetlands species, and high
elevation wildlife populations. "Global warming is projected to reduce boreal habitat in all of the
mountain ranges of the Great Basin region, contributing to a 44-percent loss of mammal species, a 23-
percent loss of butterfly species, a 30-percent loss of perennial grasses and forbs and a 17-percent loss
of shrub species," warns the report.
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Warming Impacts – Fires – Nuclear Winter


Massive forest fires are like localized nuclear war

NYT 87 (10-20, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9B0DE4DE133EF933A15753C1A961948260)


The dark pall of smoke hovering above giant forest fires recently in the West has yielded a scientific bonanza
for researchers studying whether nuclear warfare would plunge the earth into a freezing ''nuclear winter.''
''The conditions that existed in southern Oregon and Northern California were as close as one is likely to see
to conditions one might expect after the use of nuclear weapons,'' said Bernard Zak, atmospheric program
coordinator at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, N.M.
The fires yielded ''at least 10 times as much data'' as the controlled brushfire last year in the San Dimas
Experimental Forest northeast of Los Angeles, said Mr. Zak, a physicist whose work is financed by the
Defense Nuclear Agency. Smoke on Regional Scale
''Fire and smoke began to approach the regional scale we expect to see after a nuclear war, although certainly
they didn't come anywhere close to the global scale,'' said Richard Turco, a Marina del Rey atmospheric
scientist.
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Warming Impacts – Sea Level Rise (1/7)


Glacial earthquakes and ice sheet collapse mean global warming increases sea levels.

World Science 06 (“Global warming yields “glacial earthquakes”, future sea level rise”, 3/23,
http://www.world-science.net/othernews/060323_glacialfrm.htm)

In new studies, scientists report that global warming may cause sea levels to rise dramatically in a
century—and is now producing a newfound and growing phenomenon, “glacial earthquakes.” Three
studies published in the March 24 issue of the research journal Science warn of the events. Two studies found
that the Earth may be warm enough by 2100 for widespread melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and
partial collapse of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In one paper, Jonathan Overbeck at the University of Arizona in
Tucson, Ariz., and colleagues wrote that based on reconstructions of past climates, conditions could be ripe
to raise sea level by several meters (yards) by this century’s end. Most scientists believe the melting is
due to global warming, a gradual increase in the Earth’s temperature caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
In a third study, seismologists reported an unexpected offshoot of global warming: “glacial
earthquakes,” in which Manhattan-sized glaciers lurch unexpectedly. Glaciers are normally slow-
moving masses of ice. The lurches yield temblors up to magnitude 5.1 on the moment-magnitude scale,
which is similar to the Richter scale, the researchers said. Glacial earthquakes in Greenland, they added, are
most common in July and August, and have more than doubled in number since 2002. The researchers, at
Harvard University in Cambridge, Mass. and Columbia University in New York, first described glacial
earthquakes in 2003, but without reporting on their seasonality or changing frequency. “People often think of
glaciers as inert and slow-moving, but in fact they can also move rather quickly,” said Harvard’s Göran
Ekström, one of the researchers. “Some of Greenland’s glaciers, as large as Manhattan and as tall as the
Empire State Building, can move 10 meters (11 yards) in less than a minute, a jolt that is sufficient to
generate moderate seismic waves.” As glaciers and the snow on them gradually melt, water seeps
downward. When enough water accumulates at a glacier’s base, it can serve as a lubricant, causing
giant blocks of ice to lurch down valleys known as “outlet glaciers,” the team explained. These funnel
Greenland’s glacial runoff toward the surrounding sea. “Our results suggest that these major outlet glaciers
can respond to changes in climate conditions much more quickly than we had thought,” said Meredith
Nettles, a postdoctoral researcher at Columbia and member of the research team. “Greenland’s glaciers
deliver large quantities of fresh water to the oceans, so the implications for climate change are serious.”
Greenland is not a hotbed of traditional seismic activity associated with the grinding of the Earth’s tectonic
plates, the traditional source of earthquakes, the scientists noted. But seismometers worldwide detected 182
earthquakes there between January 1993 and October 2005, they added. They examined the 136 best-
documented of these events, ranging in magnitude from 4.6 to 5.1. All temblors were found to have
originated at major valleys draining the Greenland Ice Sheet, they said, implicating glacial activity. While
glacial earthquakes appear most common in Greenland, the scientists reported finding evidence of
them also in Alaska and at the edges of Antarctica.
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Warming Impacts – Sea Level Rise (2/7)


Even conservative models show warming causes substantial sea level rise.

Meehl 05 (Gerald A., research scientist at Climate & Global Dynamics, “How Much More Global Warming and
Sea Level Rise?”, Science 18, Vol. 307, no. 5716, p. 1769-1722,
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/307/5716/1769)

The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used extensively for climate change experiments (10–15).
This model has a relatively low climate sensitivity as compared to other models, with an equilibrium climate
sensitivity of 2.1°C and a transient climate response (TCR) (the globally averaged surface air temperature change at the time of CO2 doubling in a 1% CO2
increase experiment) of 1.3°C. The former is indicative of likely atmospheric feedbacks in the model, and the latter includes ocean heat uptake and provides
an indication of the transient response of the coupled climate system (6, 12). A second global coupled climate model is the newly developed Community
Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), with higher horizontal resolution (atmospheric gridpoints roughly every 1.4° as compared to the PCM, with
gridpoints about every 2.8°) and improved parameterizations in all components of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface (16). The CCSM3 has
somewhat higher sensitivity, with an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.7°C and TCR of 1.5°C. Both models have about 1° ocean resolution (0.5° in the
equatorial tropics), with dynamical sea ice and land surface schemes. These models were run for four- and eight-member ensembles for the PCM and
CCSM3, respectively, for each scenario (except for five members for A2 in CCSM3) The 20th-century simulations for both models include time-evolving
changes in forcing from solar, volcanoes, GHGs, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, and the direct effect of sulfate aerosols (14, 17). Additionally, the
CCSM3 includes black carbon distributions scaled by population over the 20th century, with those values scaled by sulfur dioxide emissions for the rest of
the future climate simulations. The CCSM3 also uses a different solar forcing data set for the 20th century (18). These 20th-century forcing differences
between CCSM3 and PCM are not thought to cause large differences in response in the climate change simulations beyond the year 2000 The warming in
both the PCM and CCSM3 is close to the observed value of about 0.6°C for the 20th century (19), with PCM warming 0.6°C and CCSM3 warming 0.7°
(averaged over the period 1980–1999 in relation to 1890–1919). Sea
level rises are 3 to 5 cm, respectively, over the 20th
century as compared to the observed estimate of 15 to 20 cm. This lower value from the models is consistent with the part of 20th-century sea level rise
thought to be caused by thermal expansion (20, 21), because as the ocean warms, seawater expands and sea level rises. Neither model includes contributions
to sea level rise due to ice sheet or glacier melting. Partly because of this, the sea level rise calculations for the 20th century from the models are probably at
least a factor of 3 too small (20, 21). Therefore,
the results here should be considered to be the minimum values of sea
level rise. Contributions from future ice sheet and glacier melting could perhaps at least double the projected sea level rise produced by thermal
expansion (1). Atmospheric CO2 is the dominant anthropogenic GHG (22), and its time evolution can be used to illustrate the various scenarios (Fig. 1A).
The three Special Report for Emissions Scenarios (SRES) show low (B1), medium (A1B), and high (A2) increases of CO2 over the course of the 21st
century. Three stabilization experiments were performed: one with concentrations of all constituents held
constant at year 2000 values and two (B1 and A1B) with concentrations held constant at year 2100 values.
Although these are idealized stabilization experiments, it would take a significant reduction of
emissions below 1990 values within a few decades and within about a century to achieve stabilized
concentrations in B1 and A1B, respectively (23). Even if we could have stopped any further increases in all atmospheric constituents as of the year
2000, the PCM and CCSM3 indicate that we are already committed to 0.4° and 0.6°C, respectively, more global
warming by the year 2100 as compared to the 0.6°C of warming observed at the end of the 20th century (Table 1 and Fig. 1B). (The range of the ensembles for
the climate model temperature anomalies here and to follow is about ±0.1°C.) But we are already committed to proportionately much more sea level rise from thermal expansion (Fig.
1C). At the end of the 21st century, as compared to the end of the 20th century (1980–1999 base period), warming in the low-estimate climate change scenario (SRES B1) is 1.1° and
with sea level rising to 13 and 18 cm above year 1999 levels. The spread among the
1.5°C in the two models (Table 1 and Fig. 1B),
ensembles for sea level in all cases amounts to less than ±0.3 cm. A medium-range scenario (SRES A1B) produces a warming at the end of the 21st century
of 1.9° and 2.6°C, with about 18 and 25 cm of sea level rise in the two models. For
the high-estimate scenario (A2), warming at
2100 is about 2.2° and 3.5°C, and sea level rise is 19 and 30 cm. The range of transient temperature response in the two
models for the 20th century through the mid-21st century is considerably less than the range in their equilibrium climate sensitivities (Table 1) due in part to
less than doubled CO2 forcing as well as ocean heat uptake characteristics (24). Thus, our confidence in model simulations of 20th-century climate change
and projections for much of the 21st century (as represented by the range in the transient response of the models) is considerably better than that represented
If concentrations of all GHGs and other
by the larger uncertainty range of the equilibrium climate sensitivity among the models.
atmospheric constituents in these simulations are held fixed at year 2100 values, we would be
committed to an additional warming by the year 2200 for B1 of about 0.1° to 0.3°C for the models (Fig.
1B). This small warming commitment is related to the fact that CO2 concentrations had already started to
stabilize at about 2050 in this scenario (Fig. 1A). But even for this small warming commitment in B1,
there is almost double the sea level rise seen over the course of the 21st century by 2200, or an
additional 12 and 13 cm (Fig. 1C). For A1B, about 0.3°C of additional warming occurs by 2200, but again there is roughly a doubling of 21st-century sea
level rise by the year 2200, or an additional 17 and 21 cm. By 2300 (not shown), with concentrations still held at year 2100 values, there would be less than another 0.1°C of warming
in either scenario, but yet again about another doubling of the committed sea level rise that occurred during the 22nd century, with additional increases of 10 and 18 cm from thermal
expansion for the two models for the stabilized B1 experiment, and 14 and 21 cm for A1B as compared to year 2200 values. Sea level rise would continue for at least two more
centuries beyond 2300, even with these stabilized concentrations of GHGs (2).
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Warming is causing unprecedented increases in sea level.

Gornitz 07 (Dr. Vivien, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies scientist, “Sea Level Rise, After the Ice
Melted and Today”, Jan., http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_09/)

Twentieth century sea level trends, however, are substantially higher that those of the last few thousand
years. The current phase of accelerated sea level rise appears to have begun in the mid/late 19th century to
early 20th century, based on coastal sediments from a number of localities. Twentieth century global sea
level, as determined from tide gauges in coastal harbors, has been increasing by 1.7-1.8 mm/yr, apparently
related to the recent climatic warming trend. Most of this rise comes from warming of the world's oceans
and melting of mountain glaciers, which have receded dramatically in many places especially during
the last few decades. Since 1993, an even higher sea level trend of about 2.8 mm/yr has been measured
from the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter. Analysis of longer tide-gauge records (1870-2004) also
suggests a possible late 20th century acceleration in global sea level. Recent observations of Greenland
and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet raise concerns for the future. Satellites detect a thinning of parts of the
Greenland Ice Sheet at lower elevations, and glaciers are disgorging ice into the ocean more rapidly,
adding 0.23 to 0.57 mm/yr to the sea within the last decade. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is also showing
some signs of thinning. Either ice sheet, if melted completely, contains enough ice to raise sea level by 5-
7 m. A global temperature rise of 2-5°C might destabilize Greenland irreversibly. Such a temperature
rise lies within the range of several future climate projections for the 21st century. However, any
significant meltdown would take many centuries. Furthermore, even with possible future accelerated
discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, it highly unlikely that annual rates of sea level rise would
exceed those of the major post-glacial meltwater pulses.
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Moderate warming drastically raises sea levels by disintegrating ice sheets.

Union of Concerned Scientists 6/19 (“EWS: Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding”, 08,
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/early-warning-signs-of-global-warming-sealevel-rise-and-coastal-
flooding.html)

Worldwide measurements from tidal gauges indicate that global mean sea level has risen between 10 and 25
cm (18 cm average) during the last 100 years (Warrick et al., 1996). This rate is greater than the average of
the last few thousand years estimated from geological and archaeological records; the timing of the onset of
this acceleration, however, is uncertain (Gornitz, 1995; Warrick et al., 1996). There is no evidence for an
acceleration of sea-level rise during this century, nor would any necessarily be expected from the observed
climate change to date (Warrick et al., 1996). The IPCC Second Assessment Report estimated a sea-level
rise for the next 100 years of about 49 cm, with a range of uncertainty of 20-86 cm. New emissions
scenarios being prepared for an IPCC Special Report have much lower sulfur dioxide levels, which
have a cooling effect via the production of sulfate aerosols. Thus, preliminary projections of sea-level rise
using the new emissions data are slightly higher (Wigley, 1999). In either scenario, the projected rate of
sea-level rise is at least two to four times the rate of the last century. A major source of uncertainty about
sea-level rise is the future behavior of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. For example, disintegration of
the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) which lies grounded on land below sea level could eventually raise
sea level by 4 to 6 meters (Bindschadler, 1998; Kerr, 1998; Rignot, 1998; Bindschadler et al., 1999). WAIS
is presently fringed by floating ice shelves that slow the release of icebergs into the sea. Although increasing
temperatures in this region would be insufficient to cause melting, the warmer air would likely bring
increased snowfall. The resulting positive mass balance of the ice sheet could lead to a rapid advance,
or "surge," accelerating the discharge of ice and raising sea level (Warrick et al., 1996). Most scientists
believe that collapse of WAIS within the next century is unlikely, but there is some concern for an
irreversible destabilizing of the ice sheet even with relatively modest warming (e.g., Oppenheimer,
1998). A new study suggests that the modern grounding-line retreat is part of an ongoing recession that has
been under way for a few thousand years (Conway et al., 1999). The authors conclude that the retreat is
independent of anthropogenic warming or sea level rise but nevertheless could lead to complete
disintegration of the WAIS within the present interglacial period. In Greenland, the southern regions of the
ice sheet are likely to be most susceptible to climate change and could contribute to sea-level rise
through melting and runoff at the margins. Observations are insufficient to determine if the ice volume
changed significantly during the past century. Recent aircraft surveys using laser-altimetry, however, indicate
that between 1993 and 1998 the southeastern part of the ice sheet thinned overall (Krabill et al., 1999).
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Glaciers prove – warming will increase sea level.

Science Daily 2/12 (“Global Warming: Sea Level Rise Could be Twice as High as Current Projections,
Greenland Ice Sheet Study Suggests”, 08, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080211172517.htm)

Traditionally, ice sheet models are very simplified, according to Beata Csatho, Ph.D., assistant professor of
geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the paper.* "Ice sheet models usually
don't include all the complexity of ice dynamics that can happen in nature," said Csatho. "This research will
give ice sheet modelers more precise, more detailed data." The implications of these richer datasets
may be dramatic, Csatho said, especially as they impact climate projections and sea-level rise estimates,
such as those made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). "If current
climate models from the IPCC included data from ice dynamics in Greenland, the sea level rise
estimated during this century could be twice as high as what they are currently projecting," she said.
The paper focuses on Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland's fastest moving glacier and its largest, measuring
four miles wide. During the past decade, Jakobshavn Isbrae has begun to experience rapid thinning and
doubling of the amount of ice it discharges into Disko Bay. "Although the thinning started as early as
the end of the 18th century, the changes we are seeing now are bigger than can be accounted for by
normal, annual perturbations in climate," Csatho said.
At the other end of the earth, the 2-kilometer-thick Antarctic ice sheet, which covers a continent about
twice the size of Australia and contains 70 percent of the world’s fresh water, is also beginning to melt.
Ice shelves that extend from the continent into the surrounding seas are starting to break up at an
alarming pace.46 In May 2007, a team of scientists from NASA and the University of Colorado reported
satellite data showing widespread snow-melt on the interior of the Antarctic ice sheet over an area the
size of California. This melting in 2005 was 900 kilometers inland, only about 500 kilometers from the
South Pole. Konrad Steffen, one of the scientists involved, observed, “Antarctica has shown little to no
warming in the recent past with the exception of the Antarctic Peninsula, but now large regions are
showing the first signs of the impacts of warming.”47 The ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are
formed by the flow of glaciers off the continent into the surrounding sea. This flow of ice, fed by the
continuous formation of new ice on land and culminating in the breakup of the shelves on the outer fringe
and the calving of icebergs, is not new. What is new is the pace of this process. When Larsen A, a huge ice
shelf on the east coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, broke up in 1995, it was a signal that all was not well
in the region. Then in 2000, a huge iceberg nearly the size of Connecticut—11,000 square kilometers, or
4,250 square miles—broke off the Ross Ice Shelf.48 After Larsen A broke up, it was only a matter of time,
given the rise in temperature in the region, before neighboring Larsen B would do the same. So when the
northern part of the Larsen B ice shelf collapsed into the sea in March 2002, it was not a total surprise. At
about the same time, a huge chunk of ice broke off the Thwaites Glacier. Covering 5,500 square kilometers,
this iceberg was the size of Rhode Island.49 Even veteran ice watchers are amazed at how quickly the
disintegration is occurring. “The speed of it is staggering,” said Dr. David Vaughan, a glaciologist at the
British Antarctic Survey, which has been monitoring the Larsen Ice Shelf closely. Along the Antarctic
Peninsula, in the vicinity of the Larsen Ice Shelf, the average temperature has risen 2.5 degrees Celsius over
the last five decades.50 When ice shelves already largely in the water break off from the continental ice mass,
this does not have much direct effect on sea level per se. But without the ice shelves to impede the flow of
glacial ice, typically moving 400–900 meters a year, the flow of ice from the continent could accelerate,
leading to a thinning of the ice sheet on the edges of the Antarctic continent. If this were to happen, sea level
would rise accordingly.51
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Warming causes glacial and sea ice to melt at accelerating rates and heighten the sea level –
we are currently at the tipping point of making a massive increase inevitable.

Brown 08 (Lester R., Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, p. 57-59)
Ice melting in mountainous regions not only affects river flows, it also affects sea level rise. On a larger
scale, the melting of the earth’s two massive ice sheets—Antarctica and Greenland— could raise sea
level enormously. If the Greenland ice sheet were to melt, it would raise sea level 7 meters (23 feet).
Melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise sea level 5 meters (16 feet). But even just partial
melting of these ice sheets will have a dramatic effect on sea level rise. Senior scientists are noting that the
IPCC projections of sea level rise during this century of 18 to 59 centimeters are already obsolete and
that a rise of 2 meters during this time is within range.35 Assessing the prospects for the Greenland ice sheet begins
with looking at the warming of the Arctic region. A 2005 study, Impacts of a Warming Arctic, concluded that the Arctic is
warming almost twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Conducted by the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)
team, an international group of 300 scientists, the study found that in the regions surrounding the Arctic, including Alaska,
western Canada, and eastern Russia, winter temperatures have already climbed by 3-4 degrees Celsius (4–7 degrees
Fahrenheit) over the last half-century. Robert Corell, chair of ACIA, says this region “is experiencing some of the most rapid
and severe climate change on Earth.”36 In testimony before the U.S. Senate Commerce Committee, Sheila Watt-Cloutier, an Inuit
speaking on behalf of the 155,000 Inuits who live in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and the Russian Federation, described their struggle to survive in the fast-
changing Arctic climate as “a snapshot of what is happening to the planet.” She called the warming of the Arctic “a defining event in the history of this
planet.” And she went on to say “the Earth is literally melting.”37 The ACIA report described how the retreat of the sea ice has devastating consequences for
polar bears, whose very survival may be at stake. A subsequent report indicated that polar bears, struggling to survive, are turning to cannibalism. Also
threatened are ice-dwelling seals, a basic food source for the Inuit.38 Since this 2005 report, there is new evidence that the problem is worse than previously
thought. A team of scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which has compiled data on
ice is melting much faster than climate models had
Arctic Ocean summer ice melting from 1953 to 2006, concluded that the
predicted. They found that from 1979 to 2006 the summer sea ice shrinkage accelerated to 9.1 percent a
decade. In 2007, Arctic sea ice shrank some 20 percent below the previous record set in 2005. This
suggests that the sea could be ice-free well before 2050, the earliest date projected by the IPCC in its
2007 report. Arctic scientist Julienne Stroeve observed that the shrinking Arctic sea ice may have reached
“a tipping point that could trigger a cascade of climate change reaching into Earth’s temperate
regions.”39 Comiso, a senior scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. Comiso reported for the first time that even the winter ice cover in the
Arctic Ocean shrank by 6 percent in 2005 and againin 2006. This new development, combined with the news that the sea ice cover is thinning, provides
further evidence that the
ice is not recovering after its melt season, meaning that summer ice in the Arctic
Ocean could disappear much sooner than earlier thought possible.40 Walt Meier, a researcher at the U.S. National
Snow and Ice Data Center who tracks the changes in Arctic sea ice, views the winter shrinkage with alarm. He believes there is “a
good chance” that the Arctic tipping point has been reached. “People have tried to think of ways we
could get back to where we were. We keep going further and further in the hole, and it’s getting harder
and harder to get out of it.” Some scientists now think that the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in the
summer as early as 2030.41 Scientists are concerned that “positive feedback loops” may be starting to kick
in. This term refers to a situation where a trend already under way begins to reinforce itself. Two of these
potential feedback mechanisms are of particular concern to scientists. The first, in the Arctic, is the albedo
effect. When incoming sunlight strikes the ice in the Arctic Ocean, up to 70 percent of it is reflected
back into space. Only 30 percent is absorbed as heat. As the Arctic sea ice melts, however, and the
incoming sunlight hits the much darker open water, only 6 percent is reflected back into space and 94 percent
is converted into heat. This may account for the accelerating shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice and the rising regional temperature that directly affects the
Greenland ice sheet.42 If
all the ice in the Arctic Ocean melts, it will not affect sea level because the ice is already
in the water. But it will lead to a much warmer Arctic region as more of the incoming sunlight is
absorbed as heat. This is of particular concern because Greenland lies largely within the Arctic Circle. As
the Arctic region warms, the island’s ice sheet—up to 1.6 kilometers (1 mile) thick in places—is
beginning to melt.43 The second positive feedback mechanism also has to do with ice melting. What
scientists once thought was a fairly simple linear process—that is, a certain amount at the surface of an ice sheet melts each year, depending on the
temperature—is now seen to be much more complicated.
As the surface ice begins to melt, some of the water filters down
through cracks in the glacier, lubricating the surface between the glacier and the rock beneath it. This
accelerates the glacial flow and the calving of icebergs into the surrounding ocean. The relatively warm
water flowing through the glacier also carries surface heat deep inside the ice sheet far faster than it
would otherwise penetrate by simple conduction.44
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Warming empirically leads to rising sea levels.

Titus 88 (James G., EPA, “Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Wetlands, Chapter 1, p.1,
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/GlobalWarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRCoastalWetlands.html)

Throughout geologic history, sea level has risen and fallen by over three hundred meters (one thousand
feet). Although changes in the size and shape of the oceans' basins have played a role over very long periods
of time (Hays and Pitman 1973), the most important changes in sea level have been caused by changes in
climate. During the last ice age (18,000 years ago), for example, the earth was about five degrees Celsius
colder than today, glaciers covered most of the northern hemisphere, and sea level was one hundred meters
(three hundred feet) lower than it is today (Donn, Farrand, and Ewing 1962). Although most of the glaciers
have melted since the last ice age, polar glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica still contain enough
water to raise sea level more than seventy meters (over two hundred feet) (Untersteiner 1975). A complete
meeting of these glaciers has not occurred in the last two million years, and would take tens of thousands of
years even if the earth warmed substantially. However, unlike the other glaciers, which rest on land, the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet rests in the ocean and is thus more vulnerable. Warmer ocean water would be more
effective than warmer air at melting glaciers and could melt the ice shelves that prevent the entire
glacier from sliding into the oceans. Mercer (1970) suggests that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet completely
disappeared during the last interglacial period (which was one or two degrees warmer than today and
occurred 100,000 years ago), at which time sea level was five to seven meters (about twenty feet) above its
present level. Over periods of decades, climate can influence sea level by heating and thereby expanding
(or cooling and contracting) sea water. In the last century, tidal gauges have been available to measure
relative sea level in particular locations. Along the Atlantic Coast, sea level has risen about 30 centimeters
(one foot) in the last century (Hicks, Debaugh, and Hickman 1983). Studies combining tide gaue
measurements around the world have concluded that average global sea level has risen ten to fifteen
centimeters (four to six inches) in the last one hundred years (Barnett 1983; Gornitz, Lebedeff, and Hansen
1982). About five centimeters of this rise can be explained by the thermal expansion of the upper layers of
the oceans resulting from the observed global warming of 0.4C in the last century (Gornitz, Lebedeff, and
Hansen 1982). Meltwater from mountain glaciers has contributed two to seven centimeters since 1900 (Meier
1984). Figure 1-1 shows that global temperature and sea level appear to have risen in the last century.
Nevertheless, questions remain over the magnitude and causes of sea level rise in the last century. The
Greenhouse Effect and Future Sea Level Rise Concern about a possible acceleration in the rate of sea
level rise stems from measurements showing the increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane, chlorofluorocarbons, and other gases released by human activities. Because these gases absorb
infrared radiation (heat), scientists generally expect the earth to warm substantially. Although some
people have suggested that unknown or unpredictable factors could offset this warming, the National
Academy of Sciences (NAS) has twice reviewed all the evidence and concluded that the warming will take
place. In 1979, the Academy concluded: "We have tried but have been unable to find any overlooked physical
effect that could reduce the currently estimated global warming to negligible proportions" (Charney 1979). In
1982, the NAS reaffirmed its 1979 assessment (Smagorinsky 1982).
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Sea level rise increases storms in heavily populated areas, decreases marine biodiversity,
and threatens drinking water.

Titus 84 (James G., EPA, Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge for This Generation, “An Overview
of the Causes and Effects of Sea Level Rise”, p. 1,
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/GlobalWarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsRisk_of_rise.html)

A rise in sea level of even one meter during the next century could influence the outcomes of many
decisions now being made. In the United States, thousands of square miles of land could be lost, particularly
in low-lying areas such as the Mississippi Delta, where the land is also subsiding at approximately one meter
per century. Storm damage, already estimated at over three billion dollars per year nationwide, could
also increase, particularly along the well-developed and low-lying Atlantic coast. Finally, a rising sea
willincrease the salinity of marshes, estuaries, and aquifers, disrupting marine life and possibly
threatening some drinking water supplies. Fortunately, the most adverse effects can be avoided if timely
actions are taken in anticipation of sea level rise.

Rising sea levels will strain the economy and flood wetlands, devastating biodiversity.

Union of Concerned Scientists 6/19 (“EWS: Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding”, 08,
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/early-warning-signs-of-global-warming-sealevel-rise-and-coastal-
flooding.html)

Sea-level rise in a given location will vary depending on factors such as vertical land movement, wind
and pressure patterns, ocean circulation, and rate of warming. Coastal wetlands and lowlands, beaches
and barrier islands, and ocean islands and atolls are especially vulnerable to rising seas. Depending on
the rate of sea-level rise, the rate of vertical wetland build-up, and the capacity for wetlands to migrate
inland, a 50-cm sea-level rise could inundate up to 50% of North American coastal wetlands (Shriner
and Street, 1998). These areas are critical habitat for large numbers of coastal bird and fish species, and
provide ecosystem services such as pollution filtration, sediment trapping, erosion mitigation, and
flood control. Wetlands in most areas have been able to keep pace with historic sea-level rise by accreting
sediment and growing vertically and by moving inland with the encroaching sea. But the accelerated rates
projected for the next 100 years may be too fast for natural accretion and migration to keep up.
Sediment deficits and development barriers are among the most important factors that limit the survival of
this important coastal habitat. Sea-level rise leads to increased coastal flooding through direct inundation
and an increase in the base for storm surges, allowing flooding of larger areas and higher elevations.
One study, for example, estimated that a rise in sea level of 30 to 90 cm would increase the size of the 100-
year floodplain in the United States by 10,000 to 20,000 km2 (FEMA, 1991). Put differently, storms of a
given magnitude will have a shorter return interval. High tide peaks, for example, that occur once every one
hundred years on average may occur every ten years, making now rare events more common. In some areas,
flooding could be further exacerbated by an increase in extreme precipitation events resulting from an
intensification of the hydrological cycle (see Downpours, Heavy Snowfalls, and Flooding). Heavy
precipitation associated with coastal storms causes increased runoff and river surges that intensify the effects
of storm surges from the sea. Levees and seawalls currently protect many coastal areas, but these
structures have been designed for current sea level and may be overtopped in the future or
undermined by increased erosion. The costs of responding to a sea-level rise of 50 cm by 2100 are
estimated at between $20 and $200 billion in the United States alone (Shriner and Street, 1998). The wide
range in this estimate reflects the different options, extent, and timing of response. Adaptation measures
such as the construction of bulkheads, dikes, and pumping systems can protect property, but these measures
are likely to result in further loss of wetlands and beaches with detrimental effects on fish and wildlife,
recreation, and tourism. Elevation of structures and land surfaces, and land-use policies that allow shorelines to retreat naturally, are less
disruptive response strategies but are challenging to implement in areas already highly developed. Maine and Rhode Island, for example, have regulations
prohibiting structures that will prevent the inland migration of wetlands (Shriner and Street, 1998). Land elevation and beach nourishment are attractive
options in many ways; yet they are not feasible in all locations, and they require extraordinary financial and political commitments into the indefinite future.
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Sea level rise strains the US economy by costing hundreds of billions of dollars.

Titus 91 (James G., EPA, “Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: The Cost of Holding Back the Sea”, Summary
and Conclusions, Coastal Management, Vol. 19,
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/GlobalWarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRCost_of_Holding.html)

We estimate the shoreline retreat from a one meter rise in sea level would cost the United States 270 to
475 billion dollars. Like all cost estimates involving unprecedented activities, our estimates ignore the
impacts we could not readily quantify and those we can not foresee. But policymakers are accustomed to
"soft" estimates, and we see no reason to believe that our estimates are any worse than the norm. Table 9
summarizes our calculations. Thirty-six thousand square kilometers (fourteen thousand square miles) of land
could be lost from a one meter rise, with wet and dry land each accounting for about half the loss. For a few
hundred billion dollars, fifteen hundred square kilometers (six to seven hundred square miles) of currently
developed land could be protected, but the loss of coastal wetlands would be that much greater. Our
estimates are optimistically low because we assume that it will only be necessary to protect areas that
are developed today, that is, about 15% of U.S. coastal low lands. If development continues and (1) we
protect those areas as well, the economic impact could be far greater because more dikes would be
necessary and wetland loss would be greater. If development continues but (2) we eventually abandon
those areas, the wetland loss will be the same as assumed in this article, but there could be a tremendous
loss of homes, offices, and infrastructures as the abandonment takes place. But (3) prohibiting coastal
development would also have costly impacts on the economy, which we would have to add. Thus, this
article is a severe underestimate of the nation-wide cost of sea level rise unless we implement a means of
abandoning low-lying areas at little or no cost.
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Sea level rise kills biodiversity by destroying wetlands, changing water salinity, and
increasing hazardous waste leakage.

Titus 84 (James G., EPA, Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge for This Generation, “An Overview
of the Causes and Effects of Sea Level Rise”, p. 1,
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/GlobalWarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsRisk_of_rise.html)

Like the physical effects, the environmental impacts of sea level rise fall into the categories of shoreline
retreat, salt intrusion, and increased flooding. Perhaps the most serious environmental consequence
would be the inundation and erosion of thousands of square miles of marshes and other wetlands.
Wetlands (areas that are flooded by tides at least once every 15 days) are critical to the reproductive cycles
of many marine species. Because marsh vegetation can collect sediment and build upon itself, marshes can
"grow" with small rises in sea level. But for faster rates of sea level rise, the vegetation will drown. Its
resulting deterioration may significantly erode land previously held together only by the marsh
vegetation. Relative sea level rise of one meter per century is eroding over one hundred square
kilometers (about fifty square miles) per year of marshland in Louisiana. Salt intrusion is a threat to
marine animals as well as vegetation. Many species must swim into fresher water during reproduction.
In response to sea level rise, fish might swim farther upstream, but water pollution could prevent such
an adaptation from succeeding. Some species, on the other hand, require salty water, such as the oyster drill
and other predators of oysters. Consequently, salinity increases have been cited for the long-term drop in
oyster production in the Delaware Bay (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1979; Haskin and Tweed, 1976), as
well as recent drops in the Chesapeake Bay. Salt intrusion could also be a serious problem for the
Everglades. Flooding could have a particularly important impact on environmental protection
activities. As Chapter 9 indicates, regulations for hazardous waste sites promulgated under the Resource
Conservation and Recovery Act currently impose special requirements for sites in 100-year flood zones.
Another EPA program, Superfund, has responsibility for abandoned waste sites, some of which are in
low-lying areas such as Louisiana and Florida that could be inundated. There are over one thousand
active hazardous waste facilities in the United States located in 100-year floodplains (Development
Planning and Research Associates, 1982) and perhaps as many inactive sites. Sea level rise could increase
the risk of flooding in these hazardous waste sites. For example, if a hazardousSea Level Rise: Overview
of Causes and Effects waste facility is subjected to overwash by strong waves or simply to flooding that
weakens the facility's cap, the wastes can be spread to nearby areas, thus exposing the population to
possibly contaminated surface water. Moreover, by intruding into clay soils (which are often used as
liners for hazardous waste disposal) saltwater can increase leaching of wastes.
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Warming Impacts – Sea Level Rise Impacts – Wetlands (1/2)


Sea level rise from global warming destroys wetlands, which are key to biodiversity and
clean water.

Titus 88 (James G., EPA, “Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Wetlands, Chapter 1, p.1,
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/GlobalWarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRCoastalWetlands.html)

Along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States, beyond the reach of the ocean waves, lies a nearly
unbroken chain of marshes and swamps. Part land and part water, our coastal "wetlands" support both
terrestrial and aquatic animals, and boast biological productivities far greater than found on dry land.
Many birds, alligators, and turtles spend their entire lifetimes communing between wetlands and
adjacent bodies of water, while land animals that normally occupy dry land visit the wetlands to feed.
Herons, eagles, sandpipers, ducks, and geese winter in marshes or rest there while migrating. The larvae of
shrimp, crab, and other marine animals find shelter in the marsh from larger animals. Bluefish, flounder,
oysters, and clams spend all or part of their lives feeding on other species supported by the marsh. Some
species of birds and fish may have evolved with a need to find a coastal marsh or swamp anywhere
along the coast (Teal and Teal 1969). Wetlands also act as cleansing mechanisms for ground and surface
waters. The importance of coastal wetlands was not always appreciated. For over three centuries, people
have drained and filled marshes and swamps to create dry land for agriculture and urban development. Flood
control levees and navigation channels have prevented fresh water, nutrients, and sediment from reaching
wetlands, resulting in their conversion to open water. Marshes have often been used as disposal sites for
channel dredging, city dumps, and hazardous waste sites. In the 1960s, however, the public began to
recognize the importance of environmental quality in general and these ecosystems. In 1972, the U.S.
Congress added Section 404 to the federal Clean Water Act, which strengthened the requirement that anyone
wishing to fill a coastal wetland obtain a permit from the Army Corps of Engineers, and added the
requirement of approval by the Environmental Protection Agency. Several coastal states enacted legislation
to sharply curtail destruction of coastal wetlands. These restrictions have substantially reduced conversion of
wetlands to dry land in coastal areas. The rate of coastal wetland loss declined from 1000 to 20 acres per year
in Maryland (Redelfs 1983), from 3100 to 50 acres per year in New Jersey (Tiner 1984), and from 444 to 20
acres per year in Delaware (Hardisky and Klemas 1983). The rate of conversion to dry land in South Carolina
has been reduced to about 15 acres per year (South Carolina Coastal Council 1985).1 Nevertheless, these
restrictions have not curtailed the conversion of wetlands to water. The majority of coastal wetland loss in the
United States is now taking place in Louisiana, which loses fifty square miles of wetlands per year, mostly
to open water. Navigation channels, canals, and flood control levees have impeded the natural mechanisms
that once enabled the wetlands of the Mississippi Delta to keep pace with subsidence and rising sea level.
The majority of coastal wetland loss in South Carolina results from impoundments that have converted
wetlands to open water during part of the year.2 In the next century, moreover, conversion of wetlands to
open water may overshadow con- version to dry land throughout the coastal zone of the United States.
Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases are expected to warm our planet a few
degrees Celsius (C) by a mechanism commonly known as the "greenhouse effect." Such a warming could
raise sea level one meter or so by expanding ocean water, meeting mountain glaciers, and causing polar
ice sheets to melt or slide into the oceans. Because most of America's coastal wetlands are less than one
meter above sea level, a large fraction of our coastal wetlands could be threatened by such a rise.
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Sea Level Rise Impacts – Wetlands (2/2)


Sea level rise destroys wetlands irreparably.

Titus 88 (James G., EPA, “Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Wetlands,
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/GlobalWarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRCoastalWetlands.html)

To further society's understanding of how to rationally respond to the possibility of a substantial rise in sea
level, EPA has undertaken assessments of the impacts of sea level rise on economic development, beach
erosion control strategies, salinity of estuaries and aquifers, and coastal drainage and sewage systems. Those
studies have generally found that even a one-foot rise in sea level has important implications for the planning
and design of coastal facilities. This report examines the potential impacts of sea level rise on coastal
wetlands in the United States. Coastal marshes and swamps are generally within a few feet of sea level,
and hence could be lost if sea level rises significantly. Although new wetlands could form where new
areas are flooded, this cannot happen where the land adjacent to today's wetlands is developed and
protected from the rising sea. Once built, neighborhoods can be expected to last a century or longer.
Therefore, today's coastal development could limit the ability of coastal wetlands to survive sea level rise in
the next century.

Sea level rise destroys wetlands by breaking up barrier islands and changing marsh
salinity.

Titus 88 (James G., EPA, “Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Wetlands, p. 18-35,
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/GlobalWarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRCoastalWetlands.html)

In response to sea level rise, barrier islands tend to migrate landward as storms wash sand from the ocean
side beach to the bay side marsh (Leatherman 1982). This "overwash" process may enable barrier islands to
keep pace with an accelerated rise in sea level. However, it is also possible that accelerated sea level rise
could cause these islands, to disintegrate. In coastal Louisiana, where rapid subsidence has resulted in a
relative sea level rise of one centimeter per year, barrier islands have broken up. The Ship Island of the
early twentieth century is now known as "Ship Shoal" (Pendland, Suter, and Maslow 1986). Marshes often
form in the flood (inland) tidal deltas (shoals) that form in the inlets between barrier islands. Because these
deltas are in equilibrium with sea level, a rise in sea level would tend to raise them as well, with sediment
being supplied primarily from the adjacent islands. Moreover, if sea level rise causes barrier islands to
breach, additional tidal deltas will form in the new inlets, creating more marsh, at least temporarily. In the
long run, however, the breakup of barrier islands would result in a loss of marsh. Larger waves would
strike the wetlands that form in tidal deltas and in estuaries behind barrier islands. Wave erosion of
marshes could also be exacerbated if sea level rise deepens the estuaries. This deepening would allow
ocean waves to retain more energy and larger waves to form in bays. Major landowners and the
government of Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, consider this possibility a serious threat and are taking action to
prevent the breakup of Isle Demiere and others around Terrebonne Bay (Terrebonne Parish 1984). Sea level
rise could also disrupt coastal wetlands by a mechanism known as saltwater intrusion, particularly in
Louisiana and Florida. In many areas the zonation of wetlands depends not so much on elevation as on
proximity to the sea, which determines salinity. The most seaward wetlands are salt marshes or their
tropical equivalent, mangrove swamps. As one moves inland, the fresh water flowing to the sea reduces
salinity, and brackish wetlands are found. Still farther inland, the freshwater flow completely repels all salt
water, and fresh marshes and cypress swamps are found. Although these marshes may be tens (and in 
Louisiana, hundreds) of kilometers inland, their elevation is often the same as that of the saline wetlands. A
rise in sea level enables salt water to penetrate upstream and inland, particularly during droughts. In 
many areas, the major impact would be to replace freshwater species with salt­tolerant marsh. However, 
many of the extensive cypress swamps in Louisiana, Florida, and South Carolina, as well as sow
"floating marshes," lack a suitable base for salt marshes to form. These swamps could convert to open
water if invaded by salt, which is already occurring in Louisiana (Wicker et al. 1980).
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Warming Impacts – Sea Level Rise Impacts – Hazardous Wastes


Sea level rise increases toxic waste spills through flooding and erosion.

Flynn 84 (Timothy J., B.A. in poli-sci & econ @ Brown U, “The Risk of Sea Level Rise”, “Implications of Sea
Level Rise for Hazardous Waste Sites in Coastal Floodplains”, p. 1,
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/GlobalWarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsRisk_of_rise.html)

On the night of July 20, 1977, 30 cm (1 ft) of rain fell on Johnstown, Pennsylvania, in a period of six hours.
As a result, the Connmar River, which runs through the heart of the city's industrial district, overflowed its
banks. Cylinders containing compressed gases, drums containing toxic chemicals, oil-soaked debris,
and other hazardous materials were washed downstream and deposited on recreational and residential
properties when the floodwaters receded. Recognizing the potential threat to public health and the
environment, the federal and Pennsylvania state governments immediately set up a joint task force to
address this threat. At considerable cost, the clean-up team surveyed the area, collected the containers,
analyzed their contents, and returned them to their owners or safely disposed of them. Although it would
have been infeasible to locate and identify every container that washed away, about 500 cyclinders and 500
drums were collected in this effort. Although there are 1,100 active1 hazardous waste sites within 100-
year floodplains in the United States (DPRA, 1982) and possibly as many closed or abandoned sites,
flooding disasters such as the Johnstown incident have been infrequent in the past. However, a rise in sea
level could significantly increase the probability of flooding for many of these sites and bring more sites
into floodplains. Furthermore, erosion and salt intrusion that would result from a rise in sea level
could become additional threats, even to those waste sites that are adequately protected against
flooding.

Sea level rise increase toxic waste leakage and spills.

Flynn 84 (Timothy J., B.A. in poli-sci & econ @ Brown U, “The Risk of Sea Level Rise”, “Implications of Sea
Level Rise for Hazardous Waste Sites in Coastal Floodplains”, p. 1,
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/GlobalWarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsRisk_of_rise.html)

The impacts of sea level rise on hazardous waste sites can be classified into increased storm damage,
shoreline retreat, and changes in water tables. Increased risk from storms is likely to be the most
important factor. A rise in sea level would bring new sites into floodplains and result in more severe
flood levels for those already in floodplains. Furthermore, the risks from damaging storm waves would
increase as deeper water allowed these waves to penetrate further inland. Shoreline retreat could also
threaten hazardous waste sites. As Chapters 1, 4, and 5 explain, a sea level rise results in both inundation
and erosion; a rise of 1ft could result in shoreline retreat from a few feet along rocky coasts to several miles
along low-lying marshland. Significant shoreline retreat might leave a waste site under water or in the
surf zone subject to constant wave attack. Operators of existing sites,Hazardous Waste Sites in Coastal
Floodplains especially factories for which the waste site is a small portion of the entire operation, would
generally protect their operation from an encroaching shoreline. Abandoned sites, however, would not be
guaranteed the same protection. Finally, changing water tables could threaten wastes stored in surface
impoundments and landfills. Higher water tables could threaten containment vessels by exerting
additional hydrostatic pressure. Further- more, saltwater can permeate clay liners that are impervious
to freshwater. As a result, the risk of wastes leaching through the liners would increase.
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***Warming Good Science***


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Warming not real 1NC (1/3)


( ) The earth has shown no sign of warming from greenhouse gases

SCIENCE DIRECTOR OF THE HEARTLAND INSTITUTE, 1-12-5 (Jay, Yearbook of Experts)


Our most reliable sources of temperature data show no global warming trend. Satellite and weather
balloon readings of temperatures in the lower troposphere (an area scientists predict would immediately
reflect any global warming) show no warming since readings began 25 years ago, when the satellite system
was first launched. Only land based temperature stations show a warming trend, and these stations do
not cover the entire globe as satellite readings do, and these are often affected by heat generated by
nearby urban development. 2 - All predictions of global warming are based on computer models not
historical data. In order to get their models to produce predictions that are close to their designers expectations, modelers make
adjustments to unknown variables that are many times greater than the effect of doubling carbon dioxide concentrations in the
atmosphere. For example, knowledge of the amount of energy flowing from the equator to the poles is uncertain by an amount
equivalent to 25 to 30 Watts per square meter (W/m2) of the earth's surface. the amount of sunlight absorbed by the atmosphere or
reflected by the surface is also uncertain by as much as 25 W/m2. The role of clouds is uncertain by at least 25 W/m2. The heat added to
the atmosphere by a doubling of CO2 is not uncertain. It is easily measured in laboratory experiments and amounts to only 4 Watts per
square meter (4 W/m2) of the earth's surface. Obviously the uncertainties are many times larger than the input of energy resulting from a
doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. 3 - When scientists analyzed the relationship between atmospheric
CO2 levels and temperatures dating back 250,000 years in ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, they
found that sometimes concentration of CO2 was high when the temperature was low and sometime
CO2 was low when temperature was high. 4 - While we hear much about one or another melting glaciers,
a recent study of 246 glaciers around the world between 1946 and 1995 indicated a balance between
those that are losing ice, gaining ice and remaining in equilibrium. There is no global trend in any direction. 5 -
The gases in the atmosphere that absorb outgoing radiation forming the greenhouse effect are water vapor (absorbing 90% of outgoing
heat), methane (4%), nitrous oxide (2%), carbon dioxide (4%). Thus a doubling of CO2 would not achieve a significant change in heat
retained. 6 - Temperature fluctuations during the current 300 year recovery from the Little Ice Age which ended around 1700AD,
following the Medieval Warming Period correlate almost perfectly with fluctuations in solar activity. This correlation long predates
human use of significant amounts of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. 7 - In defining the tremendous impact the sun has on
climate one must really understands the actual movement of the earth around the sun. There are three variables, orbit shape, tilt and
wobble which profoundly affect weather patterns. The earth's orbit does not form a circle as it moves around the sun - it forms an ellipse
passing further away from the sun at the one end of the orbit than at the other end. During the 100,000 year cycle the tug of other planets
on the earth causes its orbit to change shape. It shifts from a short broad ellipse that keeps the earth closer to the sun to a long flat ellipse
that allows it to move farther from the sun and back again. 8 - There is no consensus of scientists in favor of human
caused global warming. While opinion polls do not determine truth in science, more than 17,000 American scientists signed a
petition drafted by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine which stated: "There is no convincing scientific evidence
that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the
foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's
climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide
produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth." 9 - A
modest amount of global warming, should it occur would be beneficial to the natural world. The warmest
period in recorded history was the Medieval Warm Period roughly 800 to 1200AD when temperatures were 7 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit
warmer than today allowing great prosperity of mankind. 10 - Carbon dioxide is NOT a pollutant. On the contrary it makes
crops and forests grow faster. Mapping by satellite shows that the earth has become about 6% greener overall in the past two decades,
with forests expanding into arid regions. The Amazon rain forest was the biggest gainer, despite the much advertised deforestation
caused by human cutting along their edges. Certainly climate change does not help every region equally, but careful studies predict
overall benefit, fewer storms (not more), more rain, better crop yields, longer growing seasons, milder winters and decreasing heating
costs in colder climates. The news is certainly not all bad and on balance may be rather good.
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( ) Earth hasn’t actually warmed: satellite and ice-core data prove
S. Fred Singer 7/18/00 (a degree in engineering from Ohio State and a Ph.D. in physics from Princeton University).: President, The Science
& Environmental Policy Project
before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on Climate Change
http://www.nationalcenter.org/KyotoSingerTestimony2000.html

Contrary to the conventional wisdom and the predictions of computer models, the Earth's climate has
not warmed appreciably in the past two decades, and probably not since about 1940. The evidence is
overwhelming: a) Satellite data show no appreciable warming of the global atmosphere since 1979. In
fact, if one ignores the unusual El Nino year of 1998, one sees a cooling trend. b) Radiosonde data from
balloons released regularly around the world confirm the satellite data in every respect. This fact has been
confirmed in a recent report of the National Research Council/National Academy of Sciences [1]. c)
The well-controlled and reliable thermometer record of surface temperatures for the continental
United States shows no appreciable warming since about 1940. [See figure] The same is true for Western
Europe. These results are in sharp contrast to the GLOBAL instrumental surface record, which shows
substantial warming, mainly in NW Siberia and subpolar Alaska and Canada. d) But tree-ring records for
Siberia and Alaska and published ice-core records that I have examined show NO warming since 1940.
In fact, many show a cooling trend. Conclusion: The post-1980 global warming trend from surface
thermometers is not credible. The absence of such warming would do away with the widely touted
"hockey stick" graph (with its "unusual" temperature rise in the past 100 years) [see figure]; it was shown
here on May 17 as purported proof that the 20th century is the warmest in 1000 years.

( ) Ice cover increasing

Idso 4 (Sherwood, Keith, Craig, CO2 Science Magazine, Dec. 22, www.co2science.org)
For the years 1999-2003, the author estimates "the time-varying perennial ice zone (PIZ) coverage and
construct[s] the annual cycles of multiyear (MY, including second year) ice coverage of the Arctic Ocean
using QuikSCAT backscatter, MY fractions from RADARSAT, and the record of ice export from satellite
passive microwave observations." What was learned Based on the above-described data, Kwok calculates
that the coverage of Arctic MY sea ice at the beginning of each year of the study was 3774 x 103 km2 in
2000, 3896 x 103 km2 in 2001, 4475 x 103 km2 in 2002, and 4122 x 103 km2 in 2003. What it means Of
"immediate geophysical interest," in the words of the author, "is the analysis of a scatterometer record
of sufficient length to observe the long-term variability and trends in the behavior of the MY ice cover
in view of the recent reported negative trends in coverage (Johannessen et al., 1999; Comiso, 2002)."
Why? Because the reported trend is a decrease of 9% per decade; while the net change observed by
Kwok over but a third of a decade is an increase of 9%. Which makes one wonder: are climate
alarmists trying to pull a quick one on us with their hype-heavy but data-poor rantings and ravings
about Arctic sea ice melting like mad and altogether disappearing if the world does not immediately
abandon the use of fossil fuels for the production of heat and energy???
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( ) Scientists are influenced by politics and incentives – they alter their data to support
warming- IPCC study proves

Dr. David Demeritt (Professor of Geology at Kings College, London) 6/1 “The Construction of Global Warming
and the Politics of Science” http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/0004-5608.00245

In this article, I reconsider the relationships between the science and the politics of climate change.
Although commonly thought of as two separate domains, the two are linked in some important ways. Not
only has the science of climate change largely driven the national and international politics, the politics in
turn have also influenced the practice of that science. It is my contention that the demand for and
expectation of policy relevance has subtly shaped the formulation of research questions, choice of
methods, standards of proof, and the definition of other aspects of “good” scientific questions. This
pattern of reciprocal influence belies the categorical distinction so often made between science, based
purely on objective fact, and politics, which involves the value-laden decision making that is separable
from the downstream of science. The global scaling aids and is underwritten by a second way in which
climate scientists universalize the objects of their knowledge ontologically. Physical sciences represent
GHGs in terms of certain objective and immutable physical properties. The specific global scaling of
climate change highlights more general concerns about the effects of increasing GHG concentrations on
the earth’s radiation balance at the expense of other ways of formulating the problem,, such as the structural
imperatives of the capitalist economy driving those emissions, and indeed of other problems, such as
poverty and disease. Given the immensely contentious politics, it is tempting for politicians to argue
that climate policy must be based upon scientific certainty. This science-led politics is attractive to
some scientists since it enhances their power and prestige. The claim of the IPCC that GCM “simulation
of present climate is generally realistic” reflects the largely tacit and informal judgment of modelers not to
take model outputs at face value, but instead to “subjectively correct for known errors in the models”. In the
face of growing criticism from those who are concerned about the role of models in the greenhouse
policy debate, Mitchell and colleagues used recently published global aerosol data to account more
explicitly for aerosols through a physically constrained parameterization. By providing an explanation
for the slower than previously predicted onset of global warming, their paper lent scientific weight to
the politically symbolical and intergovernmentally negotiated conclusion of the IPCC summary for
policy makers that “the balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on the climate”.
Climate skeptics now charge that the addition of aerosols to the models, ex post facto, is a desperate and
politically motivated attempt to salvage an otherwise empirically falsified hypothesis about global
warming.
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( ) Extend Lehr 05 – it isolates 4 reasons their warming claims are wrong:
1. Satellite data shows no sign of warming over the past 30 years
2. Warming has been empirically disproved: in the past when CO2 levels were high, temps
dropped and when CO2 was lower, temps raised. There’s no pattern of temp change.
3. Ice caps naturally melt and reform over the years – it’s a natural process
4. There are no bad effects of CO2 being in the atmosphere; there’s no scientific proof that
CO2=warming

( ) Extend Singer 0 and Idso 4 - satellite and ice core data prove temps haven’t risen; data
suggesting otherwise was inaccurate and recorded poorly. Ice cover is also increasing; there
just isn’t warming.

( ) Claims of warming are flawed: temperatures in Antarctica are actually falling

Gretchen Randall (Director of the Center for Environment and Regulatory Affairs) 1/15/2 “Antarctic cooling
despite supposed global warming” http://www.nationalcenter.org/TSR11502.html

Nature magazine online reports January 14 that studies show temperatures on the continent of Antarctica
have been falling 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit per decade since the mid-l980s. This disputes earlier claims that
temperatures were rising in Antarctica, but earlier readings were taken on the peninsula rather than inland,
where the latest reported readings were taken. Again, predictions by scientists supportive of the global
warming theory have been shown to be a guess -a guess that quite often has proven to be incorrect. It's
time we listen to those scientists who acknowledge that computer models cannot accurately forecast
future climate change. This study demonstrates that climate change on this planet is still little understood.
Past predictions of drastic changes have not happened and now scientists supportive of the global warming
theory admit they are 'confused' by the recent cooling in Antarctica. Yet it is these scientists who
adamantly tell us global warming is happening while scientific data refutes their claims. The National
Science Foundation's Longterm Ecological Research team has gathered temperature data in the Dry Valleys
near McMurdo Sound in Antarctica since 1986. While temperatures have risen in the peninsula that sticks out
in the water close to South America, scientists are unable to explain why temperatures have been falling in
the interior of the continent. Dr. Peter Doran, of the University of Illinois and chief author of the report, is
quoted in the Washington Post (January 14), "We've sort of hit a point where we're a little confused." He is
also quoted as saying the research "does not change the fact that the planet has warmed up on the whole. The
findings simply point out that Antarctica is not responding as expected." Recent NASA satellite data show
no increase in warming in the lower atmosphere over the last 22 years. This is the area that computer
models used by scientists supportive of the global warming theory predicted would warm first if
carbon dioxide emissions were indeed causing global warming. The only measurements that show
warming are surface temperatures.
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( ) Global
warming claims are false: temperatures are dropping and CO2 is beneficial
Robinson et al. 98 (ARTHUR B. ROBINSON, SALLIE L. BALIUNAS, WILLIE SOON, AND
ZACHARY W. ROBINSON; 1998; Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine; part of a petition signed
by over 17,000 scientists; Petition Project; “Environmental Effects of Increased Carbon Dioxide”;
http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm; GT)

World leaders gathered in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997 to consider a world treaty restricting emissions of
''greenhouse gases,'' chiefly carbon dioxide (CO2), that are thought to cause ''global warming'' severe
increases in Earth's atmospheric and surface temperatures, with disastrous environmental consequences.
Predictions of global warming are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its
infancy. The empirical evidence actual measurements of Earth's temperature shows no man-made
warming trend. Indeed, over the past two decades, when CO2 levels have been at their highest, global
average temperatures have actually cooled slightly. To be sure, CO2 levels have increased substantially
since the Industrial Revolution, and are expected to continue doing so. It is reasonable to believe that humans
have been responsible for much of this increase. But the effect on the environment is likely to be benign.
Greenhouse gases cause plant life, and the animal life that depends upon it, to thrive. What mankind is
doing is liberating carbon from beneath the Earth's surface and putting it into the atmosphere, where
it is available for conversion into living organisms.

( ) Extend Demeritt 3 – Their “warming exists” evidence is a lie. Political influences have increased
and led to unreliable reports from scientists. The evidence indicates that scientists have incentive to
provide reports supporting the existence of warming; they get more funding and prestige in the
science community for producing data that supports the popular idea of warming.

( ) The idea of global warming is motivated by political attempts to control economic and
population growth globally (IPCC indict)
Engdahl in 8
(F. William; Writer for Centre of Research on Globalization;GlobalWarming gets the Cold Freeze; April 9)

Today there are two major factions within the Western political power establishment internationally. They
cooperate and share broad elitist goals, but differ fundamentally on how to reach these goals. Foremost is
their goal of sharply controlling global economic growth and population growth. The first faction is best
described as the Rockefeller Faction. It has a global power base and is today best represented by the
Bush family faction which got their start, as I document in my book, as hired hands for the powerful
Rockefeller machine. The Rockefeller faction has for more than a century based its power and
influence on control of oil and on use of the military to secure that control. It is personified in the man
who is since 2001 de facto President in terms of decision-making—Dick Cheney. Cheney was former
CEO of Halliburton Corp., which is both the world's largest oilfield services company (now based in
Dubai for tax reasons), and the world's largest military base constructor. The second faction might be
called the Soft Power Faction. Their philosophy might be summed up that they think its "possible to kill
more flies with honey than with vinegar." Their preferred path to global population control and lowering of the growth rates
in China and elsewhere is through promoting the fraud of global warming and imminent climate catastrophe. Al Gore is linked to this
faction. So is British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. They see globalist institutions, especially the United Nations, as the best vehicle to
advance their agenda of global austerity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created by the United Nations
Environment Programme. Its reports have been demonstrated to be fundamentally flawed in scientific methodology, yet they are
aggressively being promoted as revealed truth by the powerful media behind this faction. Others in the
circle include billionaire speculator George Soros, parts of the British Royal family and representatives
of European "old money."
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***Warming Good – Negative Feedbacks***


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Negative Feedbacks 1NC


Natural responses to increased levels of CO2 will create negative feedback balancing
temperatures

Michael Velbel 93 (dept of geological sciences Michigan university) “Temperature dependence on nature”
http://cwt33.ecology.uga.edu/publications/344.pdf

Estimation of the temperature dependence of natural feldspar weathering in two catchments at different
elevations yields an apparent Arrhenius activation energy of 18.4 kcal/mol (77.0 kj/mol), much higher than
most laboratory values. This finding supports recent suggestions that hydrolytic weathering of silicate
minerals may consume carbonic acid and thereby remove atmospheric carbon dioxide more rapidly
with increasing temperature than previously thought. This result provides a stronger negative
feedback on long-term greenhouse warming than has been assumed in most models of global carbon
cycling. The present estimate was determined from the ratio of feldspar weathering rates (determined by
geochemical mass balance) in the southern Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina, United States.
Temperature (a function of elevation) is the only factor that differs between the two catchments; parent rock
type, aspect, hillslope hydrology, and vegetation type and successional stage are the same in both. The less
the weathering rate is accelerated by a given temperature increase, the less additional CO2 is consumed by
weathering; thus, lower activation energies produce model scenarios in which the CO2 buildup and global
mean temperature increase are greater than in scenarios invoking higher activation energies. The resulting
weak temperature dependence produces unreasonably wide excursions in model CO2 paleolevels, requiring
modification of the temperature- dependence expression in the models (Berner, 1991). Recent studies have
introduced an explicit expression for biotic influences on weathering, with a presumed strong
temperature dependence, but, with the exception of GEOCARB II (Berner, 1993), the biotic term is
introduced with little or no change in the expression for the temperature dependence of weathering itself.
Higher activation energies are more appropriate because most carbonic acid absorbed by continental
weathering is consumed not by weathering of feldspars but by calcium and magnesium silicates (Berner and
Berner, 1987), which are typically less abundant but more readily and quickly weathered than feldspars and
which have significantly higher experimentally determined activation energies than do feldspars (Brady,
1991). Activation energies approaching 20 kcal/mol (84 kJ/mol) may significantly reduce model global mean
temperatures and atmospheric CO2 (Brady, 1991). The natural activation energy for feldspar weathering
determined in this study is higher than most experimentally determined values for the same mineral. If
natural activation energies of calcium and magnesium silicate weathering are similarly higher than
experimental values, the weathering-mediated negative feedback between global temperature and
atmospheric CO2 may be even stronger than previous workers suggest.

Positive feedbacks are overestimated – most will be negative

Richard Lindzen 92 (Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) “Global Warming:
The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus”
http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv15n2/reg15n2g.html

Internal processes that diminish the response are known as negative feedbacks. Indeed, there is
compelling evidence for all the known feedback factors to actually be negative. In that case, we would
expect the warming response to carbon dioxide doubling alone to be diminished. It is commonly
suggested that society should not depend on negative feedbacks to spare us from a "greenhouse catastrophe.''
What is omitted from such suggestions is that current models depend heavily on undemonstrated positive
feedback factors to predict high levels of warming. The effects of clouds have been receiving the closest
scrutiny. That is not unreasonable. Cloud cover in models is poorly treated and inaccurately predicted. Yet
clouds reflect about seventy-five watts per square meter. Given that a doubling of carbon dioxide would
change the surface heat flux by only two watts per square meter, it is evident that a small change in cloud
cover can strongly affect the response to carbon dioxide.
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Negative Feedbacks – Ag Areas


Negative feedback from agriculture areas will lower temperatures- past predictions of
warming don’t take this into consideration

Anne Stark 3/23/06 “Changes in agricultural practices could help slow global warming”
https://publicaffairs.llnl.gov/news/news_releases/2006/NR-06-03-10.html

Farmers who plant more crops, increase irrigation coverage and till the land less can have a profound
effect on climate.
Climate scientists from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory found that models that included recent
changes in agricultural practices, such as more irrigation, higher yielding crops, and less tillage,
predicted lower temperatures than models that ignored these factors.
“Nearly all models used to predict climate changes either ignore agriculture altogether or assume that farmers
behave the same way through time,” said David Lobell, the lead author on a paper appearing in the March 23
issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters. “In reality, farmers are changing rapidly in response to
new technologies, growth in demand and other factors. This study suggests that these changes may have
important cooling effects, especially at local scales.” Human activities are widely recognized as
contributing to climate change through the burning of fossil fuel and land use activities. Previous studies had
considered the effects of converting natural ecosystems such as forests into croplands. Croplands generally
reflect more sunlight than other land covers, and therefore tend to cool local temperatures. “In our
earlier study, we found that historical conversion of forests to croplands had cooled the planet by 0.5
degrees Fahrenheit, and locally by as much as 4 degrees Fahrenheit,” said Livermore’s Govindasamy
Bala, co-author of the study. But past work had neglected changes occurring within existing croplands.
According to the Food and Agricultural Organization, the net increase in global cropland during the last
50 years has been about 10 percent. But in existing cropland, over the same period, farmers have
doubled irrigation areas, have more than doubled the crop yields, and have increased the number of
crops grown in a field per year. As crops become more productive, more sunlight is reflected. A recent
trend toward less frequent plowing of fields also has raised the reflectivity, or albedo, of the surface. Each of
these factors can cool local temperatures in the climate model by more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit.
Irrigation cools the surface through a different effect – by increasing the amount of energy used to evaporate
water rather than heat the land. The study found that extreme scenarios of irrigation change could cool local
temperatures by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit, and global average temperatures by 2 degrees Fahrenheit.
The authors of the study, which included Livermore scientist Philip Duffy, caution that the changes in the
model were extreme, and effects in the real world are likely smaller. But they identified two main
implications of their work. First, the past effects of global warming in agricultural regions may have
been partially masked by changes in farmers’ practices. “In the context of the ongoing climate change
debate, this study clearly shows that a complete documentation of localized natural and human induced
changes to the environment will be necessary to understand climate change at the local and regional levels,”
said Bala. “Agricultural regions are some of the key areas where we would like to understand and predict
climate changes in order to aid adaptation to global warming,” added Lobell. Second, the study indicates
that climate mitigation policies, which often include incentives to farmers, may be too simplistic. Most
proposed climate policies focus only on the ability of farmers to sequester carbon in soils or reduce on-farm
energy use. “This study illustrates that carbon is not the only important way that agriculture affects climate,
and so focusing only on carbon may lead to an under- or over-evaluation of agriculture’s role,” Lobell said.
For example, the study estimated that the increased albedo from reduced tillage had roughly as much of a
cooling effect on global climate as the increased soil carbon sequestration.
Founded in 1952, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has a mission to ensure national security and
apply science and technology to the important issues of our time. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
is managed by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security
Administration.
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Negative Feedbacks – Clouds


Negative feedback will always prevent warming; it’s the Earth’s natural balancing system
William H Calvin 02 “A Brain for All Seasons: Human Evolution and Abrupt Climate Change” University of
Chicago Press http://williamcalvin.com/BrainForAllSeasons/NWT.htm

Whereas positive feedback boosts, negative feedback fights back, serving to minimize change. If the
bigger-and-bigger avalanche is the main metaphor for positive feedback, then the prosaic household
thermostat is the main metaphor for negative feedback. The classic earth sciences example of a thermostat is
the way volcanic CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by weathering rocks. The chemical reaction between
the rocks and the CO2 in the falling rain depends on temperature. The volcanic CO2 may make things
warmer via the greenhouse but that slowly increases the speed at which weathering removes the CO2,
suggesting a balancing act. Let it cool for some reason and the weathering slows; the volcanic CO2 can build
up again and so produce a greenhouse warming. However, this effect seems not to be strong enough to
prevent CO2 rising during a warm period in the ice ages. There’s an even quicker-acting possibility for
negative feedback: More warming might create more clouds over the tropical oceans, their whiteness
reflecting more of the sun’s heat back into space and thereby cooling things somewhat. Again, no one is
certain about the strength of the effect. Some things may balance out for awhile. Indeed that is what the
greenhouse effect is all about, so let me give you the short version of greenhouse physics. The earth is
heated by sunlight but the warmed earth surface creates infra-red radiation that escapes back out into space.
The earth, however, has an atmosphere which traps some of this heat loss, as when clouds keep it from
becoming so cold at night. The atmosphere is not as transparent to infra-red wavelengths as it is to the
incoming light (the same is true of glass, and so the same principle operates in a greenhouse or a car parked
in the sun). The atmosphere’s insulation blanket comes mostly from water vapor and carbon dioxide (and
with minor contributions from methane and nitrous oxide and ozone), the so-called greenhouse gases. The
amount of energy coming in has to balance with what escapes (or else the earth’s temperature will keep
changing until it does balance). Add more greenhouse gas, and the earth will heat up until it can produce
more infra-red, enough so that what gets past the greenhouse gases will balance the accounts. Let the water
vapor or some other greenhouse gas be reduced, and the warm earth will be losing more heat than it gains
from sunlight. And so it cools. The accounts will eventually balance again at some lower temperature. There
is nothing intrinsically slow about these temperature changes. You know how fast a cloudless night can cool
the earth, compared to a cloudy night. Were the winds to reduce tropical evaporation by one-third in a year,
you’d see an abrupt shift from warm-and-wet to cool-and-dry.

Clouds resulting from negative feedback will check the effects of warming

Peter Surdel 04 “Global Warming: Past and Present Changes”


http://www.columbia.edu/~pjs2002/arctic/pages/globalwarming.html

It is highly possible that a form of negative feedback could check the effects of global warming. Higher
temperatures cause greater evaporation of ocean water, forming more clouds. Greater cloud cover over
an area will increase its albedo, reflecting solar radiation away from the region and therefore resulting
in a cooling effect. According to one scientist, “it appears that during the sunlit portion of a year, the
decreases in sea ice extent and albedo that result from surface warming modulate the increasing cloud
cooling effect, resulting in little or no change in the surface radiation budget”
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Negative Feedbacks – Drying Troposphere


Negative feedback from the drying troposphere will slow warming

Richard S Lindzen 1990 (Center for meteorology and physical meteorology, MIT, Cambridge) “Some Coolness
Concerning Global Warming” http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0477/71/3/pdf/i1520-0477-71-3-288.pdf

Sulfate aerosols have balanced greenhouse warming and will continue to do so

Peter Scott 7/16/03 Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research “Attribution of temperature changes to
anthropogenic and natural causes”
http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/~mnew/teaching/Online_Articles/stott_regional_attribution_GRL_2003.pdf

Our results show significant anthropogenic warming trends in all the continental regions analyzed. In all
these regions, greenhouse gases are estimated to have caused generally increasing warming as the
century progressed, balanced to a greater or lesser degree, depending on the region, by cooling from
sulfate aerosols in the middle of the century. The causes of twentieth century temperature change in six
separate land areas of the Earth have been determined by carrying out a series of optimal detection analyses.
The warming effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations have been detected in all the regions
examined, including North America and Europe. In most regions, cooling from sulfate aerosols counteracts
some of the greenhouse warming, and there is some evidence for reduced net aerosol cooling in Asia,
possibly as a result of warming from black carbon.
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Positive Feedback ≠ ↑ warming


Positive carbon feedback from the growing amount of CO2 will be small and not
significantly affect warming

Miko Kirschbaum 11/3/04 “Will soil organic carbon act as a positive or negative feedback on global warming?”
Biogeochemistry http://www.springerlink.com/content/k8k85r2715400870/]

Evidence is reviewed from laboratory-based incubations, field measurements of organic carbon storage,
carbon isotope ratios and soil respiration with either naturally varying temperatures or after experimentally
increasing soil temperatures. Estimates of terrestrial carbon stored at the Last Glacial Maximum are also
reviewed. The review concludes that the temperature dependence of organic matter decomposition can be
best described as: d(T) = exp[3.36 (T – 40)/(T + 31.79)] where d(T) is the normalised decomposition rate at
temperature T (in °C). In this equation, decomposition rate is normalised to 1 at 40 °C.
The review concludes by simulating the likely changes in soil organic carbon with warming. In summary, it
appears likely that warming will have the effect of reducing soil organic carbon by stimulating
decomposition rates more than NPP. However, increasing CO2 is likely to simultaneously have the effect of
increasing soil organic carbon through increases in NPP. Any changes are also likely to be very slow. The
net effect of changes in soil organic carbon on atmospheric CO2 loading over the next decades to
centuries is, therefore, likely to be small.
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A2: “Pos feedback = runaway warming”


Positive feedback from soil isn’t enough to lead to “unstoppable” global warming

Jenkinson 5/ (Dept of soil science, University of Reading)


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v351/n6324/pdf/351304a0.pdf

Increasing cloud cover will keep CO2 levels stable

Mark Peplow 5/19/04 “Look Forward to a Darker World” Nature


http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Peplow2004.pdf

In fact, Roderick sees global dimming as part of a possible negative feedback loop working against
global warming. Burning fossil fuels not only increases carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere; it also
pumps tiny particles into the air. Meanwhile higher temperatures increase the amount of cloud cover.
The clouds and particles help to block the Sun's rays, and the scattered light they allow through
actually boosts plants' absorption of carbon dioxide, the principle greenhouse gas. This would help to
keep carbon dioxide levels stable, argues Roderick, protecting the planet from runaway global warming.
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A2: “Soil carbon positive feedbacks”


Feedback from soil carbon will be small – it wont lead to unstoppable warming

Miko Kirschbaum 1/00 “Will soil organic carbon act as a positive or negative feedback on global warming?”
http://www.springerlink.com/content/k8k85r2715400870/

Evidence is reviewed from laboratory-based incubations, field measurements of organic carbon storage,
carbon isotope ratios and soil respiration with either naturally varying temperatures or after experimentally
increasing soil temperatures. Estimates of terrestrial carbon stored at the Last Glacial Maximum are also
reviewed. In summary, it appears likely that warming will have the effect of reducing soil organic
carbon by stimulating decomposition rates more than NPP. However, increasing CO2 is likely to
simultaneously have the effect of increasing soil organic carbon through increases in NPP. Any changes
are also likely to be very slow. The net effect of changes in soil organic carbon on atmospheric CO2
loading over the next decades to centuries is, therefore, likely to be small.
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***Warming Good – Indict/Prodict***


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AT: Warming Bad – Authors Biased (1/2)


Scientists exaggerate claims of global warming to get media attention and ignore opposing
evidence.

World Climate Report 04 (climate change blog, category “Sea Level Rise”, “Slower Sea Level Rise”, 6/17,
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/02/27/antarctica-ain%e2%80%99t-cooperating/)

According to the group’s website, “The American Association for the Advancement of Science, ‘Triple A-S’
(AAAS), is an international non-profit organization dedicated to advancing science around the world
by serving as an educator, leader, spokesperson and professional association. In addition to organizing membership
activities, AAAS publishes the journal Science, as well as many scientific newsletters, books and reports,
and spearheads programs that raise the bar of understanding for science worldwide.” You would think we could
count on AAAS for a fair and balanced science-based viewpoint of today’s most important scientific issues.
Not so, as evidenced by the information presented at their June 15 conference—at least when it comes
to the issue of global climate change. The AAAS “all-star” panel comprised about a dozen scientists,
including two, Daniel Schrag and Michael Oppenheimer, who had appeared less than three weeks earlier on-
stage with Al Gore during the ultra-leftist MoveOn.org’s kick-off for the climate fiction movie The Day
After Tomorrow. Though Schrag and Oppenheimer didn’t embrace the non-science of the movie, they did
embrace its sentimentality and message—a clear indication that they would go to any measure,
including gross exaggeration and scientifically impossible scenarios, to bring attention to the issue of
global climate change. The other panelists, including, among others, Sherwood Rowland, Richard Alley, Gerald
Meehl, Joyce Penner, and Lonnie Thompson, are also characterized by similarly strong views that humans
are altering the earth’s climate in a large and negative manner. Indeed, according to Reuters’ health and science
correspondent Maggie Fox, the panel expressed frustration that the U.S. government and public are not more concerned over what the
panelists see as the risks associated with global warming. It seems probable that the reason lies in the government’s and the public’s
ability to see through the mistruths and exaggerations concerning observed and potential climate change as put forth by the panelists and
those who share their agenda. A recent poll, conducted by Gallup and published in April 2004, revealed that a plurality of
Americans now believe that news reports exaggerate the seriousness of global warming. The poll asked this
question: “Thinking about what is said in the news, in your view is the seriousness of global warming—generally exaggerated, generally
correct or is it generally underestimated?” The result? Gallup learned that 38% of us think it is “generally exaggerated,” and 25% think it
is “generally correct” (Figure 1). And the spread is up from the year before, when only four points separated those who thought the
threat of global warming is exaggerated from those who think the media get it right. Now the spread is 13 points. Apparently, the more
the exaggerations continue, the more adept Americans are at seeing through them. As it turns out, members of the plurality
have good reason for their beliefs. Recall that two leading climate scientists, Stanford’s Steve Schneider
and NASA’s James Hansen, have both suggested that exaggerations have been used in an attempt to
sway the public’s perception of the seriousness of the issue. Schneider told Discover magazine, back in 1989: On the
one hand we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but… which
means that we must include all the doubts, caveats, ifs and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists, but human
beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context
translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climate change. To do that we
have to get some broad-based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails
getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic
statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This “double ethical bind” which we frequently
find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being
honest. I hope that means being both. Fourteen years later, in summer 2003, Hansen called for this practice to stop, writing in the on-line
journal Natural Science: Emphasis on extreme scenarios may have been appropriate at one time, when the public and decision-makers
were relatively unaware of the global warming issue, and energy sources such as ‘synfuels,’ shale oil and tar sands were receiving strong
consideration. Now, however, the need is for demonstrably objective climate forcing scenarios consistent with what is realistic under
current conditions. Scenarios that accurately fit recent and near-future observations have the best chance of bringing all of the important
players into the discussion, and they also are what is needed for the purpose of providing policy-makers the most effective and efficient
options to stop global warming. Apparently, despite Hansen’s call for the exaggerations to end, the practice is still
in full swing. For example, Maggie Fox reported that, “[The AAAS panelists] said even as sea levels rise
and crop yields fall, officials argue over whether climate change is real and Americans continue to drive
fuel-guzzling SUVs.” Figure 2 (below) is the history of yields from two important U.S. crops, corn and
wheat. There has been a dramatic rise in yields since the late 1940s. The year 2003 saw record high
yields in both of these food crops.
(Continues…)
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(Continued…)
In fact of the USDA’s 20 principle crops, 14 of them set record high yields within the past 10 years. To state
that crop yields are falling is at best misleading, and at worse an outright falsehood. Another example of
gross distortion can be found in what Michael Oppenheimer told the audience: “The sea-level rise over
the past century appears greater than what the model says it should be. The [Greenland and Antarctic]
ice sheets may be contributing more than the models predict.” Such a statement shows no regard for
the latest scientific evidence. For example, published just days before in the journal Geophysical Research
Letters were the results of a sea-level rise study conducted by Cambridge University’s Peter Wadhams,
along with Scripps Institution of Oceanography’s Walter Munk. These researchers carefully calculated the
known contributions to sea-level rise (ocean warming, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and midlatitude
glaciers) over the 20th century and concluded, “we do obtain a total rise which is at the lower end of the
range estimated by the IPCC.” And furthermore, they found that “One interesting consequence is that the
continental run-off which is ‘allowed’ after subtracting the effect of sea ice melt is considerably lower
than current estimates of sub-polar glacier retreat, suggesting a negative contribution from polar ice
sheets (Antarctica plus Greenland) or from other non-glacial processes.”

Their scientists are pressured and bought off to oppose warming theory.

Hansen 07 (James, head of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Newscientist, “Huge sea level rises are
coming – unless we act now”, 7/25, http://environment.newscientist.com/article/mg19526141.600)

I suspect it is because of what I call the "John Mercer effect". In 1978, when global warming was beginning
to get attention from government agencies, Mercer suggested that global warming could lead to disastrous
disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Although it was not obvious who was right on the science,
I noticed that researchers who suggested that his paper was alarmist were regarded as more
authoritative. It seems to me that scientists downplaying the dangers of climate change fare better when
it comes to getting funding. Drawing attention to the dangers of global warming may or may not have
helped increase funding for the relevant scientific areas, but it surely did not help individuals like Mercer
who stuck their heads out. I can vouch for that from my own experience. After I published a paper in
1981 that described the likely effects of fossil fuel use, the US Department of Energy reversed a
decision to fund my group's research, specifically criticising aspects of that paper. I believe there is
pressure on scientists to be conservative. Caveats are essential to science. They are born in scepticism,
and scepticism is at the heart of the scientific method and discovery. However, in a case such as ice sheet
instability and sea level rise, excessive caution also holds dangers. "Scientific reticence" can hinder
communication with the public about the dangers of global warming. We may rue reticence if it means no
action is taken until it is too late to prevent future disasters.
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IPCC bad frontline (1/3)


( ) The IPCC isn’t actually peer reviewed and it misleads policy makers

Fox 7/16/7 (Michael R. Fox, energy analyst with the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii and science and
energy reporter for the Hawaii Reporter, July 16 2007, published in the Hawaii Reporter,
“Flaws in the Global Warming Debate”,
http://www.hawaiireporter.com/story.aspx?8050a1d8-4e1c-457e-85d1-e8b3db316777)

There are many scientific problems involved with global warming issues which are
routinely downplayed. Some are related to numerous uncertainties being airbrushed away
and replaced by statements of unsupportable certitude. These include errors in the early
CO2 measurements, phenomenally poor and biased temperature readings, poor and nonuniform
data bases, poor temperature data quality, unvalidated temperature data and
computer programs. Also many are ignoring the roles of aerosols, particulates, and the
physics of cloud formation, and place undue reliance upon Global Climate Models
(GCMs), which don't even agree with each other, etc. Downplaying these uncertainties
has been a major deception activity of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
This seems to be an effort to deceive the policy makers. For example, the Summaries for
Policy Makers (SPM) issued by the (IPCC) are flawed. Hundreds of comments from the
authors themselves of the Scientific Assessment Report (SAR) have only recently
surfaced (http://tinyurl.com/2a27nu) .These authors have expressed serious concerns for
the IPCC claimed certainties in the SPMs. The legitimization of the "Hockeystick" by
the IPCC now shown to be fraudulent is but another example of the scientific corruption
within the IPCC, its editors, its reviewers, and it supporters. For example, the computer
algorithm used to reproduce the Hockeystick chart, according to McIntyre and McKitrick
(http://tinyurl.com/awwva), could produce such a chart from a table of random numbers.
This is appalling, and is deception, not science. Nations of the world were expected to
make energy policy using the IPCC chart. The IPCC quietly dropped the chart from the
4th Assessment Report, without apology to the nations of the world. The unscientific
weaknesses at the IPCC have been known for years. In the June 12, 1996 Wall Street
Journal, Dr. Fred Seitz stated, “In my more than 60 years as a member of the American
scientific community, including service as president of both the National Academy of
Sciences and the American Physical Society, I have never witnessed a more disturbing
corruption of the peer-review process than the events that led to this IPCC report”. Yet in
the eyes of the media, Hollywood, and the alarmists, the IPCC gets an unexamined free
pass.

IPCC reports in the past have been fraudulent: they are politically edited and rewritten

Taylor and Bast 7(James M. Taylor and Joseph L. Bast, Environment Issue Suite, April 16, 2007)

Global warming is a prime example of the alarmism that characterizes much of the environmental
movement. Media coverage of the topic is heavily slanted toward alarmism because “bad news sells,”
making it difficult for climate realists to get a fair hearing. Al Gore’s recent movie, “An Inconvenient
Truth,” has been severely critiqued by many experts, yet it is being shown in high schools across the country
as an educational documentary. Climate science reveals that the world has warmed about 1 degree C during
the past century, with half of that warming occurring before human emissions could have been responsible.
Even if human activity is responsible for 100 percent of the warmingsince 1940, it is only about 0.5
degrees C., an amount so small it is within the error range of the instruments used to measure global
temperatures. There is no consensus about the causes, effects, or future rate of global warming. Most
climate scientists doubt the reliability of computer models and the accuracy of land-based temperature
records Reports by the IPCC are unreliable due to political editing and rewriting of the reports’
conclusions. Some of the key evidence cited in past IPCC reports has been shown to be fraudulent.
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IPCC bad frontline (2/3)


( ) IPCC studies are flawed- aren’t actually peer reviewed and are selective in the data they
share

John McLean 9/7 “Fallacies About Global Warming” Science and Public Policy Institute
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/mclean/agwfallacies.pdf

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) undertakes no research for itself and relies on
peer-reviewed scientific papers in reputable journals (see item 6). There is strong evidence that the
IPCC is very selective of the papers it wishes to cite and pays scant regard to papers that do not adhere
to the notion that manmade emissions of carbon dioxide have caused warming. The IPCC
pronouncements have a powerful influence on the direction and funding of scientific research into
climate change, which in turn influences the number of research papers on these topics. Ultimately,
and in entirely circular fashion, this leads the IPCC to report that large numbers of papers support a
certain hypothesis (see item 5). These fallacies alone are major defects of the IPCC reports, but the
problems do not end there. Other distortions and fallacies of the IPCC are of its own doing. Governments
appoint experts to work with the IPCC but once appointed those experts can directly invite other experts to
join them. This practice obviously can, and does, lead to a situation where the IPCC is heavily biased
towards the philosophies and ideologies of certain governments or science groups. The lead authors of
the chapters of the IPCC reports can themselves be researchers whose work is cited in those chapters.
This was the case with the so-called "hockey stick" temperature graph in the Third Assessment Report
(TAR) published in 2001. The paper in which the graph first appeared was not subject to proper and
independent peer review, despite which the graph was prominently featured in a chapter for which the
co-creator of
the graph was a lead author. The graph was debunked in 20066 and has been omitted without
6 "Ad Hoc Committee Report on the 'Hockey Stick' The explanation from the Fourth Assessment Report
(4AR) of 2007. The IPCC has often said words to the effect "We don't know what else can be causing
warming so it must be humans" (or "the climate models will only produce the correct result if we include
manmade influences"), but at the same time the IPCC says that scientists have a low level of
understanding of many climate factors. It logically follows that if any natural climate factors are
poorly understood then they cannot be properly modelled, the output of the models will probably be
incorrect and that natural forces cannot easily be dismissed as possible causes. In these circumstances it
is simply dishonest to unequivocally blame late 20th century warming on human activity.7 The IPCC
implies that its reports are thoroughly reviewed by thousands of experts. Any impression that thousands of
scientists review every word of
the reports can be shown to be untrue by an examination of the review comments for the
report by IPCC Working Group I. (This report is crucial, because it discusses historical
observations, attributes a likely cause of change and attempts to predict global and regional changes. The
reports by working groups 2 and 3 draw heavily on the findings of this WG I report.) The claim that the
IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report carries the imprimatur of having been reviewed by thousands, or even
hundreds, of expert and independent scientists is incorrect, and even risible. In actuality, the report
represents the view of small and self-selected science coteries that formed the lead authoring teams.
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IPCC bad frontline (3/3)


( ) IPCC puts pressure on participants to slant results in favor of warming

Richard S. Lindzen 92 Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “Alleged Scientific
Consensus” http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv15n2/reg15n2g.html

The notion of "scientific unanimity'' is currently intimately tied to the Working Group I report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued in September 1990. That panel consists largely of
scientists posted to it by government agencies. The panel has three working groups. Working Group I
nominally deals with climate science. Approximately 150 scientists contributed to the report, but university
representation from the United States was relatively small and is likely to remain so, since the funds and time
needed for participation are not available to most university scientists. Many governments have agreed to use
that report as the authoritative basis for climate policy. The report, as such, has both positive and negative
features. Methodologically, the report is deeply committed to reliance on large models, and within the report
models are largely verified by comparison with other models. Given that models are known to agree more
with each other than with nature (even after "tuning''), that approach does not seem promising. In addition, a
number of the participants have testified to the pressures placed on them to emphasize results
supportive of the current scenario and to suppress other results. That pressure has frequently been
effective, and a survey of participants reveals substantial disagreement with the final report.
Nonetheless, the body of the report is extremely ambiguous, and the caveats are numerous. The report is
prefaced by a policymakers' summary written by the editor, Sir John Houghton, director of the United
Kingdom Meteorological Office. His summary largely ignores the uncertainty in the report and attempts to
present the expectation of substantial warming as firmly based science. The summary was published as a
separate document, and, it is safe to say that policymakers are unlikely to read anything further. On
the basis of the summary, one frequently hears that "hundreds of the world's greatest climate scientists
from dozens of countries all agreed that.|.|.|.'' It hardly matters what the agreement refers to, since
whoever refers to the summary insists that it agrees with the most extreme scenarios (which, in all
fairness, it does not). I should add that the climatology community, until the past few years, was quite small
and heavily concentrated in the United States and Europe.
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A2: “Scientific Consensus” (1/2)


( ) Their ev refers to the consensus of CO2 output increasing, not warming- there is no
scientific consensus on global warming

Christopher Walter 7/7 (Former policy advisor of Margaret Thatcher while she was Prime Minister) “Consensus?
What Consensus?” Science and Public Policy Institute
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/monckton/consensus.pdf

There is indeed a consensus that humankind is putting large quantities of greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere; that some warming has resulted; and that some further warming can be expected. However,
there is less of a consensus about whether most of the past half-century’s warming is anthropogenic,
which is why, rightly, Oreskes is cautious enough to circumscribe her definition of the “consensus”
about the anthropogenic contribution to warming over the past half-century with the qualifying
adjective “likely”. There is no scientific consensus on how much the world has warmed or will warm;
how much of the warming is natural; how much impact greenhouse gases have had or will have on
temperature; how sea level, storms, droughts, floods, flora, and fauna will respond to warmer temperature;
what mitigative steps – if any – we should take; whether (if at all) such steps would have sufficient (or any)
climatic effect; or even whether we should take any steps at all. Campaigners for climate alarm state or
imply that there is a scientific consensus on all of these things, when in fact there is none. They imply
that Oreskes’ essay proves the consensus on all of these things. Al Gore, for instance, devoted a long
segment of his film An Inconvenient Truth to predicting the imminent meltdown of the Greenland and West
Antarctic ice-sheets, with a consequent global increase of 20 feet (6 m) in sea level that would flood
Manhattan, Shanghai, Bangladesh, and other coastal settlements. He quoted Oreskes’ essay as proving that all
credible climate scientists were agreed on the supposed threat from climate change. He did not point out,
however, that Oreskes’ definition of the “consensus” on climate change did not encompass, still less
justify, his alarmist notions. Let us take just one example. The UN’s latest report on climate change, which
is claimed as representing and summarizing the state of the scientific “consensus” insofar as there is one,
says that the total contribution of ice-melt from Greenland and Antarctica to the rise in sea level over the
whole of the coming century will not be the 20 feet luridly illustrated by Al Gore in his movie, but just 2
inches. Gore’s film does not represent the “consensus” at all. Indeed, he exaggerates the supposed effects of
ice-melt by some 12,000 per cent. The UN, on the other hand, estimates the probability that humankind has
had any influence on sea level at little better than 50:50. The BBC, of course, has not headlined, or even
reported, the UN’s “counterconsensual” findings. Every time the BBC mentions “climate change”, it shows
the same tired footage of a glacier calving into the sea – which is what glaciers do every summer.
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A2: “Scientific Consensus” (2/2)


( ) False numbers support the “consensus”- More reject it than support it

Christopher Walter 7/7 (Former policy advisor of Margaret Thatcher while she was Prime Minister) “Consensus?
What Consensus?” Science and Public Policy Institute
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/monckton/consensus.pdf

Dr. Peiser used “global climate change” as a search term and found 1,117 documents using this term, of
which 929 were articles and only 905 also had abstracts. Therefore it is not clear which were the 928
“abstracts” mentioned by Oreskes, and Science did not, as it would have done with a peer-reviewed
scientific paper, list the references to each of the “abstracts”. Significantly, Oreskes’ essay does not
state how many of the 928 papers explicitly endorsed her very limited definition of “consensus”. Dr.
Peiser found that only 13 of the 1,117 documents – a mere 1% – explicitly endorse the consensus, even in
her limited definition. Dr. Peiser’s research demonstrated that several of the abstracts confounded
Oreskes’ assertion of unanimity by explicitly rejecting or casting doubt upon the notion that human
activities are the main drivers of the observed warming over the last 50 years. Thus, in Oreskes’
sample, more than twice as many appeared to have explicitly rejected or doubted the “consensus” as
had explicitly endorsed it.

( ) The numbers in the IPCC report were exaggerated- many of the scientists don’t believe
warming is anthropogenic

Christopher Walter 7/7 (Former policy advisor of Margaret Thatcher while she was Prime Minister) “Consensus?
What Consensus?” Science and Public Policy Institute
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/monckton/consensus.pdf

First among these is that the UN’s latest report on climate change (IPCC, 2007) was
written by 2,500 scientists – and “2,500 scientists can’t be wrong”. In fact, however,
the scientific chapters were contributed by a far smaller number than this. Furthermore,
we are now able to offer proof that the UN cannot have obtained the approval of as many
as 2,500 scientists to the text before it was published. A growing number of scientists who had
previously subscribed to the alarmist presentation of the “consensus” are no longer sure. They are
joining the numerous climatologists – many of them with outstanding credentials – who have never
believed in the more extreme versions of the alarmist case. Indeed, many scientists now say that there
has been no discernible human effect on temperature at all. For instance, Buentgen et al. (2006) say:
“The 20th-century contribution of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol remains insecure.”
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A2: “Scientific Consensus- Oreskes”


Oreskes is outdated- many scientists now reject the idea of warming

Christopher Walter 7/7 (Former policy advisor of Margaret Thatcher while she was Prime Minister) “Consensus?
What Consensus?” Science and Public Policy Institute
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/monckton/consensus.pdf

Oreskes’ essay is now outdated. Since it was published, more than 8,000 further papers on climate
change have been published in the learned journals. In these papers, there is a discernible and
accelerating trend away from unanimity even on her limited definition of “consensus”. Schulte (2007:
submitted) has brought Oreskes’ essay up to date by examining the 539 abstracts found using her search
phrase “global climate change” between 2004 (her search had ended in 2003) and mid-February 2007. Even
if Oreskes’ commentary in Science were true, the “consensus” has moved very considerably away from
the unanimity she says she found. Dr. Schulte’s results show that about 1.5% of the papers (just 9 out of
539) explicitly endorse the “consensus”, even in the limited sense defined by Oreskes. Though Oreskes
found that 75% of the papers she reviewed explicitly or implicitly endorsed the “consensus”, Dr. Schulte’s
review of subsequent papers shows that fewer than half now give some degree of endorsement to the
“consensus”
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Peer Reviewing Bad


( ) Peer-reviewing just leads to more bias- editors have incentive to agree with popular
hypotheses

John McLean 9/7 “Fallacies About Global Warming” Science and Public Policy Institute
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/mclean/agwfallacies.pdf

The peer-review process was established for the benefit of editors who did not have good
knowledge across all the fields that their journals addressed. It provided a "sanity check" to avoid
the risk of publishing papers which were so outlandish that the journal would be ridiculed and
lose its reputation. In principle this notion seems entirely reasonable, but it neglects certain aspects of
human nature, especially the tendency for reviewers to defend their own (earlier) papers, and
indirectly their
reputations, against challengers. Peer review also ignores the strong tendency for papers that disagree
with a popular hypothesis, one the reviewer understands and perhaps supports, to receive a closer and
often hostile scrutiny. Reviewers are selected from practitioners in the field, but many scientific fields are
so small that the reviewers will know the authors. The reviewers may even have worked with the authors
in the past or wish to work with them in future, so the objectivity of any review is likely to be tainted by this
association. It also follows that if the editor of a journal wishes to reject a paper, then it will be sent to a
reviewer who is likely to reject it, whereas a paper that the editor favours to be published will be sent
to a reviewer who is expected to be sympathetic. In 2002 the editor-in-chief of the journal "Science"
announced that there was no longer any doubt that human activity was changing climate, so what are
the realistic chances of this journal publishing a
paper that suggests otherwise? The popular notion is that reviewers should be skilled in the relevant field,
but a scientific field like climate change is so broad, and encompasses so many sub disciplines, that it really
requires the
use of expert reviewers from many different fields. That this is seldom undertaken explains why so many
initially influential climate papers have later been found to be fundamentally flawed. In theory,
reviewers should be able to understand and replicate the processing used by the author(s). In practice, climate
science has numerous examples where authors of highly influential papers have refused to reveal their
complete set of
data or the processing methods that they used. Even worse, the journals in question not only allowed this to
happen, but have subsequently defended the lack of disclosure when other researchers attempted to replicate
the work.
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Singer Good
Singer’s position on warming predates any funding: his writings were not motivated by
monetary incentives

Ross Gelbspan 6/97 (Author of The Heat is On) “Sellout Scientists”


http://organizenow.net/cco/right/globalwarm.html

Among the skeptics, Professor S. Fred Singer stands out for being consistently forthcoming about his
funding by large oil interests and conservative groups. Singer is director of the Science and Energy
Policy Project at the University of Virginia. During a 1994 appearance on ABC's "Nightline," Singer did
not deny having received funding from the Rev. Sun Myung Moon (to whose newspaper, the Washington
Times, he is a regular contributor and whose organization has published three of his books). Nor has he
apologized for his funding from Exxon, Shell, ARCO, Unocal and Sun Oil. Singer's defense is that his
scientific position on global atmospheric issues predates that funding and has not changed because of
it. And it is true that Singer held firm to a similar position on another environmental controversy --
despite overwhelming evidence against his position. Singer once warned the oil companies that they face the
same threat as the chemical firms that produced chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), a class of chemicals that was
found to be depleting the earth's protective ozone layer. "It took only five years to go from... mandating a
simple freeze of production [of CFCs] at 1985 levels, to the 1992 decision of a complete production phase-
out -- all on the basis of quite insubstantial science," Singer wrote.
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Lindzen Good
Lindzen’s writings aren’t motivated by money- its been years since the oil-industry has
given him funds- the ones in the past were just expert witness fees and expenses

Alex Beam 8/30/6 “MIT’s inconvenient scientist” The Boston Globe


http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2006/08/30/mits_inconvenient_scientist/

I ask you: Are these convincing arguments? And directed at journalists, who are natural questioners and
skeptics, of all people? What happens when you are told not to eat the apple, not to read that book, not to date
that girl? Your interest is piqued, of course. What am I not supposed to know? ``We do not understand the
natural internal variability of climate change" is one of Lindzen's many heresies, along with such
zingers as ``the Arctic was as warm or warmer in 1940," ``the evidence so far suggests that the
Greenland ice sheet is actually growing on average," and ``Alpine glaciers have been retreating since the
early 19th century, and were advancing for several centuries before that. Since about 1970, many of the
glaciers have stopped retreating and some are now advancing again. And, frankly, we don't know why." I
decided to check out Lindzen for myself. He wasn't hard to find on the 16th floor of MIT's I.M. Pei-designed
Building 54, and he answered as many questions as I had time to ask. He's no big fan of Gore's, having
suffered through what he calls a ``Star Chamber" Congressional inquisition by the then senator . He said he
accepted $10,000 in expenses and expert witness fees from fossil- fuel types in the 1990s, and has taken
none of their money since. `We know that General Motors has been paying for this fake science exactly as
the tobacco companies did," says ED attorney Jim Marston. If Marston has a scintilla of evidence that
Lindzen has been trafficking in fake science, he should present it to the MIT provost's office. Otherwise, he
should shut up.``This is the criminalization of opposition to global warming," says Lindzen, who adds he
has never communicated with the auto companies involved in the lawsuit. Of course Lindzen isn't a
fake scientist, he's an inconvenient scientist. No wonder you're not supposed to listen to him.
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***Warming Good – No Solvency***


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No Solve – Alt Cause – Deforestation (1/3)


No Solvency- Majority of carbon emissions come from deforestation not energy

Daniel Howden, May 14 2007, “Deforestation: The Hidden Cause Of Global Warming”, deputy foreign editor of
The Independent, (http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/deforestation-the-hidden-cause-of-
global-warming-448734.html)

Most people think of forests only in terms of the CO2 they absorb. The rainforests of the Amazon, the
Congo basin and Indonesia are thought of as the lungs of the planet. But the destruction of those forests
will in the next four years alone, in the words of Sir Nicholas Stern, pump more CO2 into the
atmosphere than every flight in the history of aviation to at least 2025. Indonesia became the third-
largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world last week. Following close behind is Brazil. Neither
nation has heavy industry on a comparable scale with the EU, India or Russia and yet they comfortably
outstrip all other countries, except the United States and China. What both countries do have in common
is tropical forest that is being cut and burned with staggering swiftness. Smoke stacks visible from space
climb into the sky above both countries, while satellite images capture similar destruction from the Congo
basin, across the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Central African Republic and the Republic of Congo.
According to the latest audited figures from 2003, two billion tons of CO2 enters the atmosphere every
year from deforestation. That destruction amounts to 50 million acres - or an area the size of England,
Wales and Scotland felled annually. The remaining standing forest is calculated to contain 1,000 billion tons
of carbon, or double what is already in the atmosphere. As the GCP's report concludes: "If we lose forests,
we lose the fight against climate change."

No Solvency- You can not solve climate change without solving for deforestation first

Daniel Howden, May 14 2007, “Deforestation: The Hidden Cause Of Global Warming”, deputy foreign editor of
The Independent, (http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/deforestation-the-hidden-cause-of-
global-warming-448734.html)

The accelerating destruction of the rainforests that form a precious cooling band around the Earth's
equator, is now being recognised as one of the main causes of climate change. Carbon emissions from
deforestation far outstrip damage caused by planes and automobiles and factories. The rampant slashing
and burning of tropical forests is second only to the energy sector as a source of greenhouses gases according
to report published today by the Oxford-based Global Canopy Programme, an alliance of leading rainforest
scientists. Figures from the GCP, summarising the latest findings from the United Nations, and building on
estimates contained in the Stern Report, show deforestation accounts for up to 25 per cent of global
emissions of heat-trapping gases, while transport and industry account for 14 per cent each; and aviation
makes up only 3 per cent of the total. "Tropical forests are the elephant in the living room of climate
change," said Andrew Mitchell, the head of the GCP. Scientists say one days' deforestation is equivalent to
the carbon footprint of eight million people flying to New York. Reducing those catastrophic emissions
can be achieved most quickly and most cheaply by halting the destruction in Brazil, Indonesia, the Congo
and elsewhere. No new technology is needed, says the GCP, just the political will and a system of
enforcement and incentives that makes the trees worth more to governments and individuals standing than
felled. "The focus on technological fixes for the emissions of rich nations while giving no incentive to
poorer nations to stop burning the standing forest means we are putting the cart before the horse," said
Mr Mitchell.
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No Solve – Alt Cause – Deforestation (2/3)


Deforestation causes global warming

Christopher Matthews, September 4 2006, “Deforestation Causes Global Warming”, Information officer with
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, (http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news /2006 /10003
85/index.html)

Most people assume that global warming is caused by burning oil and gas. But in fact between 25 and 30
percent of the greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere each year – 1.6 billion tonnes – is caused
by deforestation. About 200 experts, mostly from developing countries, met in Rome last week to address
this issue in a workshop organized by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) and hosted by FAO. “We are working to solve two of the key environmental issues –
deforestation and global warming – at the same time,” said FAO Senior Forestry Officer Dieter Schoene.
Trees are 50 percent carbon. When they are felled or burned, the C02 they store escapes back into the
air. According to FAO figures, some 13 million ha of forests worldwide are lost every year, almost
entirely in the tropics. Deforestation remains high in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia. Delegates
of the 46 developing countries present at the Rome workshop signalled their readiness to act on
deforestation, 80 percent of which is due to increased farmland to feed growing populations. Part of the
solution is to increase agricultural productivity so that there is less demand to convert forests into farmland.
But they also stressed that they needed financial help from the developed world to do the job. A major flow
of capital from north to south – under new instruments still waiting to be negotiated -- would be required to
help the developing nations conserve their forests.

Deforestation is inevitable

Science and Development Network, November 25 2005, “Emission Trading Cannot Solve Amazon
Deforestation”, News and Information About Science, Technology, and The Developing World,
(http://www.scidev.net/en/opinions/ missions-trading-cannot-solve-amazon-deforestatio.html)

Some people say that projects that avoid deforestation should be eligible for CDM credits. They say that
preventing deforestation would halt a root cause of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere.
The conversion of forests to poorly managed agricultural land leads not only to the release of carbon
from trees, but also from soils that subsequently erode away. The problem is of particular concern in
Brazil, where most of the Amazon rainforest lies. Data from the Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia, a research institute in northern
Brazil, suggest that deforestation is responsible for emissions of an estimated 200 million tones of carbon each
year. That is equivalent to two-thirds of Brazil’s emissions of greenhouse gases and about 2.5 per cent of
global carbon emissions. But including projects that avoid deforestation in the CDM trading is unlikely to
work in Brazil. Here are five reasons why. First, the problem of deforestation in Brazil is tightly linked to
internal migration. If an area were declared protected by a CDM project, farmers would be likely to
continue their unsustainable agricultural practices by simply moving to unprotected areas. Leaving-
dioxide emissions unchanged. To avoid this, alternative economic opportunities would have to be offered to
the farmers or effective sanctions would need to be applied. Controlling deforestation and the emissions
that result from it would mean controlling migration. But this is difficult to do, say the authorities,
because local institutions have limited funds and staff. Second, political disagreement on this issue
between different groups in the country which has prevented Brazil from taking a united position in
international negotiations. The Brazilian government opposes the inclusion within the CDM of projects
that avoid deforestation, arguing that farmers would simply migrate to non-protected areas and cut
down the trees there. Some non-governmental organizations and government officials do support the
inclusion of ‘avoided deforestation’ projects
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No Solve – Alt Cause – Deforestation (3/3)


Deforestation causes global warming

Paulo Moutinho and Stephan Schwartzman, December 13 2005, “Tropical Deforestation and Climate
Change”, Moutinho and Stephan Schwartzman. -- Belém - Pará - Brazil : IPAM - Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental
da Amazônia ; Washington DC - USA : Environmental Defense, (http://www.edf.org/documents/4930_
ropicalDeforestation_and_ClimateChange.pdf)

Deforestation releases carbon, principally as CO2, to the atmosphere as the organic carbon stored in
trees and soil is oxidized through burning and decay. Other greenhouse gases, such as CH4 and N2O, are
also emitted as a result of the conversion of forests to agricultural lands. Current emissions of greenhouse
gases from deforestation amount to about 25% of the enhanced greenhouse effect estimated to result
from all anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. If current trends continue, tropical deforestation
will release about 50% as much carbon to the atmosphere as has been emitted from worldwide
combustion of fossil fuels since the start of the industrial revolution. The potential for avoided
deforestation to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases is significant.

Stopping deforestation is key to combat warming

Science Daily, May 11 2007, “Confirmed: Deforestation Plays Critical Climate Change Role”,
(http://www.sciencedaily. om/releases/2007/05/070511100918.htm)

Dr Pep Canadell, from the Global Carbon Project and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, says in the journal Science that tropical
deforestation releases 1.5 billion tonnes of carbon each year into the atmosphere.” Deforestation in the
tropics accounts for nearly 20 per cent of carbon emissions due to human activities,” Dr Canadell says.
“This will release an estimated 87 to 130 billion tonnes of carbon by 2100, which is greater than the
amount of carbon that would be released by 13 years of global fossil fuel combustion. So maintaining
forests as carbon sinks will make a significant contribution to stabilising atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations.” The new body of information shows considerable value in preserving tropical forests such as those in the Amazon and Indonesia
as carbon sinks, that they do not release the carbon back into the atmosphere as has been suggested.”Dr.Canadell says.
“However, it also demonstrates the need to avoid higher levels of global warming, which could slow the ability of forests to accumulate carbon.” In the first study of its kind, Dr
Canadell joined an international team of experts from the US, UK, Brazil and France to compare data from 11 climate-carbon computer models. The results show that tropical forests
continue to accumulate carbon through to the end of the century, although they may become less efficient at higher temperatures. “The new body of information shows considerable
value in preserving tropical forests such as those in the Amazon and Indonesia as carbon sinks, that they do not release the carbon back into the atmosphere as has been suggested,” Dr
Canadell says. “However, it also demonstrates the need to avoid higher levels of global warming, which could slow the ability of forests to accumulate carbon.” He says that while
tropical deforestation will continue, slowing the amount of clearing will make significant impacts. “If by 2050 we slow deforestation by 50 per cent from
current levels, with the aim of stopping deforestation when we have 50 per cent of the world’s tropical forests remaining, this would save the emission of 50
billion tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere. This 50/50/50 option would avoid the release of the equivalent of six years of global fossil fuel emissions.”
Reducing deforestation is just one of a portfolio of mitigation options needed to reduce concentrations of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere. “Globally, we need a range of actions to reduce the build up of carbon in the atmosphere,” Dr Canadell says. “This
study ensures we have a sound scientific basis behind the consideration of deforestation reduction.
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No Solve – Alt Cause – Contrails (1/2)


Airplane Contrails contribute to global warming

National Geographic News, June 14 2006, “Airplane Contrails Boost Global Warming, Study Suggests”,
(http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/06/060614-contrails.html)

Nicola Stuber, first author of the study, to be published in tomorrow's edition of the journal Nature, suggests
that contrails' overall impact on climate change is similar in scope to that of aircrafts' carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions over a hundred-year period. Aircraft are believed to be responsible for 2 to 3 percent
of human CO2 emissions. Like other high, thin clouds, contrails reflect sunlight back into space and cool
the planet. However, they also trap energy in Earth's atmosphere and boost the warming effect, the
study says Stuber and other scientists believe that the effect of the contrails is significant. "On average the
greenhouse warming effect dominates [the effects of contrails]," said Stuber, a meteorologist at England's
University of Reading. This warming effect is far greater for contrails left by night flights, Stuber added.
"The solar cooling effect [wherein contrails reflect the sun's rays back into space] only happens during the
day, when the sun is up," she explained.

Contrails warming impact will grow significantly in coming years

National Geographic News, June 14 2006, “Airplane Contrails Boost Global Warming, Study Suggests”,
(http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/06/060614-contrails.html)

At the high altitudes favored by commercial airlines, the air is much more humid in winter, so contrails are
twice as likely in that season, study co-author Stuber said. "We also found that flights between December and
February contribute half of the annual mean climate warming, even though they account for less than a
quarter of annual air traffic," she said of her U.K.-based research. Study leader Piers Forster, of England's
University of Leeds, suggests that contrails' current impact on the atmosphere is likely to increase as air
traffic grows. "Aircraft currently only have a small effect on climate," he said. "However, the fact that the
volume of air traffic is set to rapidly grow in coming years makes it important to investigate the effects
of contrails on our climate." Shifting airline schedules will surely prove far easier in theory than in reality.
"The problem is that this is not something that can be done easily," said the University of Wisconsin's Travis.
"With fuel prices on the rise and airlines going bankrupt, it is a difficult time to try and convince airlines
to consider issues such as this one."
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No Solve – Alt Cause – Contrails (2/2)


Contrails are proven to cause climate change

Science Daily, April 28 2004, “Clouds Caused By Aircraft Exhaust May Warm The U.S. Climate”, Your source
for the latest research news, (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/04/040428061056.htm)

NASA scientists have found that cirrus clouds, formed by contrails from aircraft engine exhaust, are
capable of increasing average surface temperatures enough to account for a warming trend in the
United States that occurred between 1975 and 1994. "This result shows the increased cirrus coverage,
attributable to air traffic, could account for nearly all of the warming observed over the United States
for nearly 20 years starting in 1975, but it is important to acknowledge contrails would add to and not replace any greenhouse gas effect," said Patrick
Minnis, senior research scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Va. The study was published April 15 in the Journal of Climate. "During the same period, warming
. "This study demonstrates that human activity has
occurred in many other areas where cirrus coverage decreased or remained steady," he added
a visible and significant impact on cloud cover and, therefore, on climate. It indicates that contrails
should be included in climate change scenarios," Minnis said. Minnis determined the observed one percent per decade increase in cirrus cloud cover
over the United States is likely due to air traffic-induced contrails. Using published results from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (New York) general circulation model,
Minnis and his colleagues estimatedcontrails and their resulting cirrus clouds would increase surface and lower
atmospheric temperatures by 0.36 to 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit per decade. Weather service data reveal
surface and lower atmospheric temperatures across North America rose by almost 0.5 degree Fahrenheit per
decade between 1975 and 1994. Minnis worked with colleagues Kirk Ayers, Rabi Palinkonda, and Dung
Phan from Analytical Services and Materials, Inc., of Hampton, Va. They used 25 years of global surface
observations of cirrus clouds, temperature and humidity records from the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset. They confirmed the cirrus trends with 13 years of
satellite data from NASA's International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. Both air traffic and cirrus
coverage increased during the period of warming despite no changes in the NCEP humidity at jet cruise
altitudes over the United States. By contrast, humidity at flight altitudes decreased over other land areas, such as Asia, and was accompanied by less cirrus
coverage, except over Western Europe, where air traffic is very heavy. Cirrus coverage also rose in the North Pacific and North Atlantic flight corridors. The trends in
cirrus cover and warming over the United States were greatest during winter and spring, the same
seasons when contrails are most frequent. These results, along with findings from earlier studies, led to the
conclusion that contrails caused the increase in cirrus clouds. "This study indicates that contrails already
have substantial regional effects where air traffic is heavy, such as over the United States. As air travel
continues growing in other areas, the impact could become globally significant," Minnis said. Humidity
is the amount of water vapor in the air and determines how long contrails remain in the atmosphere.
Contrails that persist for an extended period of time are most likely to impact the climate. Contrails
form high in the atmosphere when the mixture of water vapor in the aircraft exhaust and the air condenses
and freezes. Persisting contrails can spread into extensive cirrus clouds that tend to warm the Earth,
because they reflect less sunlight than the amount of heat they trap. The balance between Earth's
incoming sunlight and outgoing heat drives climate change.
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No Solve – Alt Cause – Several Gasses


Several greenhouse gasses contribute significantly to global warming

EcoBridge, February 3 2008, “Causes of Global Warming”, (http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_cse.htm)


While carbon dioxide is the principal greenhouse gas, methane is second most important. According to the
IPCC, Methane is more than 20 times as effective as CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere. US
Emissions Inventory 2004 Levels of atmospheric methane have risen 145% in the last 100 years. [18]
Methane is derived from sources such as rice paddies, bovine flatulence, bacteria in bogs and fossil fuel
production. Most of the world’s rice, and all of the rice in the United States, is grown on flooded fields.
When fields are flooded, anaerobic conditions develop and the organic matter in the soil decomposes,
releasing CH4 to the atmosphere, primarily through the rice plants. US Emissions Inventory 2004 Water
vapor is the most prevalent and most poweful greenhouse gas on the planet, but its increasing presence is
the result of warming caused by carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases. (See NOAA's National
Climate Data Center (NCDC) FAQ page) Water vapor holds onto two-thirds of the heat trapped by all
the greenhouse gases.[129] As the Earth heats up relative humidity is able to increase, allowing the planet's atmosphere to hold more water vapor, causing even
more warming, thus a positive feedback scenario. Because the air is warmer, the relative humidity can be higher (in essence, the air is able to 'hold' more water when its warmer),
leading to more water vapor in the atmosphere, says the NCDC. There is much scientific uncertainty as to the degree this feedback loop causes increased warming, inasmuch as the
. Another greenhouse gas is Nitrous oxide
water vapor also causes increased cloud formation, which in turn reflects heat back out into space
(N2O), a colourless, non-flammable gas with a sweetish odour, commonly known as "laughing gas", and
sometimes used as an anaesthetic. Nitrous oxide is naturally produced by oceans and rainforests. Man-
made sources of nitrous oxide include nylon and nitric acid production, the use of fertilisers in agriculture,
cars with catalytic converters and the burning of organic matter. Nitrous oxide is broken down in the
atmosphere by chemical reactions that involve sunlight
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No Solve – Alt Cause – Cows


Livestock cause climate change and destroy the environment

Geoffrey Lean, December 10 2006, “Cow ‘Emissions’ More Damaging To Planet than CO2 Emissions”,
environmental editor of the independent, (http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/cow-
emissions-more-damaging-to-planet-than-cosub2sub-from-cars-427843.html)

Meet the world's top destroyer of the environment. It is not the car, or the plane,or even George Bush: it
is the cow. A United Nations report has identified the world's rapidly growing herds of cattle as the
greatest threat to the climate, forests and wildlife. And they are blamed for a host of other environmental
crimes, from acid rain to the introduction of alien species, from producing deserts to creating dead zones in
the oceans, from poisoning rivers and drinking water to destroying coral reefs. The 400-page report by the
Food and Agricultural Organisation, entitled Livestock's Long Shadow, also surveys the damage done by
sheep, chickens, pigs and goats. But in almost every case, the world's 1.5 billion cattle are most to blame.
Livestock are responsible for 18 per cent of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming, more than
cars, planes and all other forms of transport put together. Burning fuel to produce fertiliser to grow
feed, to produce meat and to transport it - and clearing vegetation for grazing - produces 9 per cent of
all emissions of carbon dioxide, the most common greenhouse gas. And their wind and manure emit
more than one third of emissions of another, methane, which warms the world 20 times faster than
carbon dioxide. Livestock also produces more than 100 other polluting gases, including more than two-
thirds of the world's emissions of ammonia, one of the main causes of acid rain. Ranching, the report
adds, is "the major driver of deforestation" worldwide, and overgrazing is turning a fifth of all pastures
and ranges into desert. Cows also soak up vast amounts of water: it takes a staggering 990 litres of water to
produce one litre of milk. Wastes from feedlots and fertilisers used to grow their feed over nourish
water, causing weeds to choke all other life. And the pesticides, antibiotics and hormones used to treat
them get into drinking water and endanger human health. The pollution washes down to the sea, killing
coral reefs and creating "dead zones" devoid of life. One is up to 21,000sqkm, in the Gulf of Mexico,
where much of the waste from US beef production is carried down the Mississippi. The report concludes that,
unless drastic changes are made, the massive damage done by livestock will more than double by 2050, as
demand for meat increases.

Cows are the main cause of global warming

Reuters, December 1 2006, “Cattle Cause Most Global Warming”, (http://www.financialexpress.


com/old/fe_full_story.php?content_id=147739)

Who is contributing most to global warming? Dumb cattle and not emissions from factories and power
plants, says the United Nations. The increasing world population, a new UN report warns, would lead to
further increase in the number of livestock as demand for meat and milk increases and that would
mean emission of more greenhouse gases. Not only that. Cattle are also a major contributor to land
degradation and pollution of water, the report says. The livestock business, the report says, is among the
most damaging sectors to the earth's increasingly scarce water resources, contributing among other
things to water pollution from animal wastes, antibiotics and hormones, chemicals from tanneries, fertilizers
and the pesticides used to spray feed crops. Stressing that cattle-rearing generates more global warming
greenhouse gases as measured in carbon dioxide equivalent, the UN has called for improved animal diets
to reduce enteric fermentation and consequent methane emissions.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 178
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No Solve – Alt Cause – Sun (1/2)


The sun causes global warming- Mars proves

National Geographic News, February 28 2007, “Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause For Warming,
Scientist Says”, (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html)

Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a
natural—and not a human-induced—cause, according to one scientist's controversial theory. Earth is
currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast majority of climate scientists says is due to humans
pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more
mild and balmy temperatures. In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions
revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three
summers in a row. Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo
Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on
Earth is being caused by changes in the sun. "The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating
both Earth and Mars," he said. Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun's heat output can account
for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets. Mars and Earth, for instance, have experienced
periodic ice ages throughout their histories. "Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small
contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in
solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said. By studying fluctuations in the warmth of the sun, Abdussamatov
believes he can see a pattern that fits with the ups and downs in climate we see on Earth and Mars.

The sun causes global warming- we have plenty of time to act

Harvard Gazette, November 6 1997, “Brightening Sun Is Warming Earth, May Account For Major Part Of
Global Warming”, (http://www.hno.harvard.edu/gazette/1997/11.06/BrighteningSuni.html)

There is a better explanation for global warming than air pollution, two Harvard researchers say: the
Sun is increasing in brightness and radiance. "Changes in the Sun can account for major climate
changes on Earth for the past 300 years, including part of the recent surge of global warming," claims
Sallie Baliunas, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA). "We're not saying
that variations in solar activity account for all of the global rise in temperature that we are experiencing,"
cautions her CfA colleague, astrophysicist Willie Soon. "But we believe these variations are the major
driving force. Heat-trapping gases emitted by smokestacks and vehicles -- the so-called greenhouse effect
-- appear to be secondary." If that conclusion proves true, it promises a huge economic and political impact on the "third rock from the Sun." The Clinton
Administration is trying to negotiate an international treaty to gradually reduce greenhouse pollutants without bringing economic havoc to industries that satisfy our enormous
. Other world leaders and environmentalists are pushing for
appetite for the energy that comes from burning oil, coal, and gas
immediate action, but Baliunas thinks there is time to carefully consider what action to take. "The best
models of global warming call for a very slow temperature rise of less than two degrees in the next 100
years," she has told various congressional committees and briefings. "There is time for more research and
a measured response because the penalty you pay in increased temperatures from greenhouse warming
is small."
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 179
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No Solve – Alt Cause – Sun (2/2)


The sun is responsible for majority of climate change

Noah Shachtman, June 4 2008, “Army: Sun, Not Man, Is Causing Climate Change”, columnist for Wired news,
won the 2007 Online Journalism Award for best beat reporting, (http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content
/view/1293/218/)

The Army is weighing in on the global warming debate, claiming that climate change is not man-made.
Instead, Dr. Bruce West, with the Army Research Office, argues that "changes in the earth’s average
surface temperature are directly linked to ... the short-term statistical fluctuations in the Sun’s
irradiance and the longer-term solar cycles." In an advisory to bloggers entitled "Global Warming: Fact of Fiction [sic]," an Army public affairs
official promoted a conference call with West about "the causes of global warming, and how it may not be caused by the common indicates [sic] some scientists and the media are
"the
indicating." In the March, 2008 issue of Physics Today, West, the chief scientist of the Army Research Office's mathematical and information science directorate, wrote that
Sun’s turbulent dynamics" are linked with the Earth's complex ecosystem. These connections are what
is heating up the planet. "The Sun could account for as much as 69 percent of the increase in Earth’s
average temperature," West noted. It's a position that puts West at odds with nearly every major scientific organization on the planet. "The American Meteorological
Society, the American Geophysical Union, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for
human modification of climate is compelling," Science magazine observes. So has the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which shared the 2007
IPCC and other scientific groups have "conclude[d]
Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore, for their work on global warming. West acknowledges that the
that the contribution of solar variability to global warming is negligible." He argues that these groups have
done a poor job modeling the Sun's impact, however, and that's why they have "significantly over-
estimated" the "anthropogenic contribution to global warming."
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No Solve – Alt Cause – Plants (1/2)


Plants cause global warming

New Scientist, January 14 2006, “Editorial: Methane Emissions Cause Red Faces All Around”,
(http://www.newscientist.com/channel/opinion/mg18925342.600-editorial-methane-emissions-cause-red-faces-all-
around.html)

Vegetation, it seems, releases methane - not just when it rots, but under normal conditions. And it's no
small amount either - between 10 and 30 per cent of all the methane pumped into the atmosphere. One
reason why we may have missed this "minor detail" is that we know of no physiological reason why plants
should make methane (see "The lungs of the planet are belching methane"). The finding clears up a
number of observations that previously defied explanation, such as why methane emissions from rice
plants increase with the area of foliage, and why rainforests give off large methane plumes. It also
creates problems. Growing trees soak up the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, so under the Kyoto
protocol countries can plant forests as an alternative to reducing CO2 emissions. Now we find that
trees emit methane, which is a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2. Time to rethink the Kyoto rules,
then.

Plants heavily contribute to global warming through methane production

New Scientist, January 12 2006, “The Lungs of The Planet Are Belching Methane”,
(http://www.newscientist.com/ channel/life/mg18925343.900-the-lungs-of-the-planet-are-belching-methane.html)

IT'S not just farting cows and belching sheep that spew out methane. Living plants have been disgorging
millions of tonnes of the potent greenhouse gas into the atmosphere every year - without anybody
noticing. The concentration of methane in the atmosphere has almost tripled since pre-industrial times.
Environmental scientists thought they had identified all natural sources where bacteria convert organic plant
matter to methane, such as swamps, wetlands and rice paddies. These bacteria only thrive in wet, oxygen-
poor environments; they cannot survive in air. So Frank Keppler, an environmental engineer at the Max
Planck Institute for Nuclear Physics in Heidelberg, Germany, was surprised when he saw signs of methane
being emitted by plants he was examining in normal air. "If we were following the textbook, we would have
ignored it as a mistake," he says. But Keppler and his colleagues decided to investigate further. They
measured the amount of methane given off by plant debris - bits of grass and leaves from local and
tropical plants - in methane-free chambers. To rule out the possibility that bacteria were at work, they
bombarded the plants with gamma radiation to sterilise them. The team saw similar levels of methane
produced by both sterilised and un-sterilised leaves. "We realised that we were looking at a previously
unrecognised process," Keppler says. They still don't know exactly what is happening, but believe that
pectin, a substance contained in plant cell walls, plays a part in the methane-making mechanism
(Nature, vol 439, p 187). When the group repeated the tests with living plants they were stunned by the
amount of methane created. They estimate that, globally, living plants produce between 63 and 236 million
tonnes of methane per year, with plant debris adding another 1 to 7 million tonnes. This would make plants
responsible for roughly 10 to 30 per cent of global methane production. "This effect is completely
missing from climate change and biogeochemical models," says Peter Cox of the Centre for Ecology and
Hydrology at Winfrith in Dorset, UK. He suggests that a new source of methane could help solve some
climate mysteries. One such puzzle was posed last year when satellite observations revealed that tropical
rainforests are emitting more methane than expected (New Scientist, 26 March 2005, p 20). Thomas
Wagner from the University of Heidelberg in Germany, who led last year's study, thinks Keppler may have
found the culprit. "This new source is in good agreement with our results," he says. The finding should also
encourage new strategies for cutting man-made methane emissions, says Chris Jardine of the University of
Oxford's UK methane project.
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No Solve – Alt Cause – Plants (2/2)


Plants are Responsible For 30% of the Earth’s Methane Budget

Clementine Wallace, July 27 2007, “Plants: An OZONE Culprit”, freelance writer and part-time adjunct, NYU
Journalism Undergraduate alumni, (http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/co2weekly/20060112/20060112_10.html)

New findings suggest that plants might produce methane in situ by a hitherto unknown process, and emit
quantities representing 10-30% of the earth's atmospheric methane levels. If confirmed, the results --
published in this week's issue of Nature -- will require a re-evaluation of the planet's global methane budget,
and have a significant impact on many fields, from the study of past climate changes to greenhouse gas
accounting. "At first, most people we showed our results to said -it can't be, something must be wrong," co-author Thomas Röckmann, from the Institute for Marine and
Atmospheric Research in Utrecht, The Netherlands, told The Scientist. "It's more than not knowing it exists, people think it can't happen." But when it comes to greenhouse gases,
. "If you want to do something about the emissions and control them, you have to
knowledge is power, he added
understand where they come from and where they go," said Röckmann. Ultimately, the findings may
lead to potential changes in the way governments manage greenhouse gases, consisting mostly of
methane and carbon dioxide. For instance, some countries are trying to reduce their emissions by
planting forests to absorb CO2 - but if that solution also results in more methane emissions, it will pose
additional problems, according to David Lowe from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in Wellington, New Zealand, who was not a co-author.
Most of the methane emitted from natural sources is currently thought to originate from microbial activity in anaerobic environments, mainly in the earth's wetlands. This bacterial
process is also involved in anthropogenic sources of methane, such as the soil of rice paddies and ruminants. Even though scientists did not expect plants to produce methane,
. They set out to examine whether plants do, in
Röckmann's team found that plants contain different methyl halides such as methanol or methyl chloride
fact, emit the greenhouse gas. When the researchers incubated detached leaf tissue or intact plants in
methane-free chambers, they detected emissions. Using isotopic measurements, the researchers
confirmed the releases originated from the plants, not the soil. If other types of living plants produce
comparable amounts of methane globally, the researchers estimate plants could produce between 62 and 236
Teragrams (1 Tg=1012 grams) of methane every year, or 10-30% of the global methane budget. "These are the
findings of just one group. Now others around the world will have to make efforts to confirm these observations and to figure out the process that might be involved," said Lowe.
Röckmann's group did not investigate further how vegetation might produce methane, but hypothesized the mechanism may involve pectin, a cell-bonding agent in plants. "I
personally would have liked to see more experiments to define the chemical process, but research is limited by time," Carl Brenninkmeijer, a researcher from the Max Planck Institute
for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany, who did not participate in the study, told The Scientist. "It's difficult to understand how vegetal organic matter, even apple pectin, would produce
methane in the presence of oxygen." Experts agree that, if additional experiments confirm that plants contribute a significant amount of methane to the environment, researchers
would have to re-examine global methane budget calculations. For instance, they would have to re-evaluate the estimated contributions of wetlands, rice fields, ruminants and other
. These new findings may also provide insights into
sources to the budget's global value, which remains stable at about 600 million tons per year
ongoing mysteries involving methane. For instance, between the ice ages and the warm ages, the only
acknowledged source of methane was wetlands, but they don't explain the era's puzzling variations in
the methane budget.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 182
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No Solve – Alt Cause – Arthropods (1/2)


Arthropods contribute significantly to climate change

Johannes H. P. Hackstein and Claudius K. Stumm, June 7 1994, “Methane Production in Terrestrial
Arthropods”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 91, No. 12,
Department of Microbiology and Evolutionary Biology, ()http://www.jstor.org/sici?sici=0027-
8424(19940607)91%3A12%3C5441%3AMPITA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-C&cookieSet=1

Arthropods cause global methane fluxuations

Johannes H. P. Hackstein and Claudius K. Stumm, June 7 1994, “Methane Production in Terrestrial
Arthropods”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 91, No. 12,
Department of Microbiology and Evolutionary Biology, ()http://www.jstor.org/sici?sici=0027-
8424(19940607)91%3A12%3C5441%3AMPITA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-C&cookieSet=1
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No Solve – Alt Cause – Arthropods (2/2)


Arthropods contribute significantly to climate change
Johannes H. P. Hackstein and Claudius K. Stumm, June 7 1994, “Methane Production in Terrestrial
Arthropods”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 91, No. 12,
Department of Microbiology and Evolutionary Biology, ()http://www.jstor.org/sici?sici=0027-
8424(19940607)91%3A12%3C5441%3AMPITA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-C&cookieSet=1

Arthropods cause global methane fluxuations


Johannes H. P. Hackstein and Claudius K. Stumm, June 7 1994, “Methane Production in Terrestrial
Arthropods”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 91, No. 12,
Department of Microbiology and Evolutionary Biology, ()http://www.jstor.org/sici?sici=0027-
8424(19940607)91%3A12%3C5441%3AMPITA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-C&cookieSet=1
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No Solve – China (1/2)


No Solvency- China’s CO2 emissions will overshadow emission cuts

National Geographic, March 18 2008, “China CO2 Emissions Growing Faster Than Anticipated”,
(http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/03/080318-china-warming.html)

China's greenhouse gas emissions are rising much faster than expected and will overshadow the cuts in
global emissions expected due to the Kyoto Protocol, according to a new study. Forecasts from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had predicted that China's carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions would rise by about 2.5 to 5 percent each year between 2004 and 2010. But the estimates are two
to four times too low, according to new research led by Maximilian Auffhammer of the University of
California, Berkeley. The study calculated that for the period from 2004 to 2010, China's CO2 emissions
will have grown by at least 11 percent a year. "The emissions growth rate is surpassing our worst
expectations, and that means the goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 is going to be much, much harder
to achieve," Auffhammer said. The new findings threaten to throw a damper on the Kyoto Protocol, an
international agreement to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Most countries—
including all major industrialized countries except the U.S.—have signed on to the Kyoto Protocol. (Related:
"Australia Signs Kyoto Protocol; U.S. Now Only Holdout" [December 3, 2007].) But a major sticking point
for the U.S. is that the agreement only mandates reductions for developed countries, mostly in North America
and Europe. These areas are currently responsible for most of the CO2 that's causing global warming.
Developing nations such as China, India, and Brazil are exempt from any reduction targets. But China, the
world's most populous country, has been developing at lightning speed—perhaps faster than any country in
history. Since most of its electricity comes from coal, for instance, China has been building coal-fired
power plants at a rate of roughly two a week for the past few years. The country recently surpassed the
U.S. to become the world's single leading emitter of CO2, according to another recent study. (China has
more than four times the population of the U.S., however, so China's emissions per person are much lower.)
China's greater-than-anticipated emissions may completely nullify the Kyoto reductions, raising the pressure
to find ways for the country to grow cleanly, according to experts. "Making China and other developing
countries an integral part of any future climate agreement is now even more important," Auffhammer
said. To create the updated forecast, the new study took the novel approach of looking at each of China's
provinces individually. "Everybody had been treating China as single country," said study co-author Richard
Carson of the University of California, San Diego. But each of its more than 20 provinces is large, with
populations bigger than many European countries, Carson pointed out. The areas have different standards of
living and different rates of development and population growth—all of which the new study factors in. Also,
many of the new coal-fired power plants that have been built in the past few years are low-cost designs,
which are less efficient and therefore emit more CO2. "The problem is that power plants, once built, are
meant to last for 40 to 75 years," Carson said. "Our forecast incorporates the fact that much of China is
now stuck with power plants that are dirty and inefficient."
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 185
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No Solve – China (2/2)


No Solvency- China’s CO2 emissions means stabilizing atmospheric CO2 is impossible

GCC, March 11 2008, “New Analysis Concludes China CO2 Emissions Growing More Rapidly Than
Expected”,Green Car Congress’ mission is to provide timely, high-quality editorial about the full spectrum of energy
options, technologies, products, issues and policies related to sustainable mobility,
(http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/03/new-analysis-co.html)

The growth in China’s carbon dioxide emissions is far outpacing previous estimates, making the goal of
stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases much more difficult, according to a new analysis by economists at the University of
California, Berkeley, and UC San Diego. The authors of the study, Maximillian Auffhammer, UC Berkeley assistant professor of agricultural and resource economics, and Richard
Carson, UC San Diego professor of economics, based their findings upon pollution data from China’s 30 provincial entities. Previous estimates, including those used by the
,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, say the region that includes China will see a 2.5 to 5% annual increase in CO2 emissions the largest contributor to atmospheric
greenhouse gases, between 2004 and 2010. The new UC analysis puts that annual growth rate for China to at least 11% for the same time period. The study is scheduled for print
. The researchers’ most conservative
publication in the May issue of the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, but is now online
forecast predicts that by 2010, there will be an increase of 600 million metric tons of carbon emissions in
China over the country’s levels in 2000. This growth from China alone would overshadow the 116 million
metric tons of carbon emissions reductions pledged by all the developed countries in the Kyoto Protocol.
(The protocol was never ratified in the United States, which was the largest single emitter of carbon dioxide
until 2006, when China took over that distinction, according to numerous reports.) Put another way, the
projected annual increase in China alone over the next several years is greater than the current
emissions produced by either Great Britain or Germany. Based upon these findings, the authors say
current global warming forecasts are “overly optimistic,” and that action is urgently needed to curb
greenhouse gas production in China and other rapidly industrializing countries. Auffhammer said this
paper should serve as an alarm challenging the widely held belief that actions taken by the wealthy,
industrialized nations alone represent a viable strategy towards the goal of stabilizing atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide. Making China and other developing countries an integral part of
any future climate agreement is now even more important. It had been expected that the efficiency of
China’s power generation would continue to improve as per capita income increased, slowing down the rate
of CO2 emissions growth. What we’re finding instead is that the emissions growth rate is surpassing our
worst expectations, and that means the goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 is going to be much, much
harder to achieve.
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No Solve – India
India Will Not Cut Carbon Emissions

News Post India, June 5 2008, “India Wont Cut Greenhouse Gas Emissions Against Development”,
(http://www.newspostindia.com/report-59039)

India will not reduce greenhouse gas emission at the cost of development and poverty alleviation,
Minister of State for Environment and Forests Namo Narain Meena said Thursday. India is struggling to
bring millions of people out of poverty. We cannot accept binding commitments to cut down
greenhouse gas emission,' Meena said at a function to mark the World Environment Day. hough India has
no commitment to reduce the global warming gases under the Kyoto Protocol, in recent climate change
conferences many developed countries have said India needs to reduce the greenhouse burden.

India will not cut emissions which will hurt its development

Transnational Institute, June 7 2007, “G8: India Stonewalls Demand for Emission Cuts”, A worldwide
fellowship of committed scholar-activists, (http://www.tni.org/detail_page.phtml?act_id=16949)

India is likely to cut a sorry figure on climate change issues during and after the G8 summit at Heiligendamm
in Germany. s the world's fifth largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) and one of its fastest growing
economies, India will come under intense pressure both from the European Union and the United States to
cut its emissions. But India will doggedly refuse to make any time-bound commitment to reducing
them, and strongly resist legally binding caps. t press briefings on the eve of Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh's visit to Germany --ironically, on World Environment Day -- senior officials made it clear that New
Delhi sticks to its stand that it is the developed world which caused climate change through its
industrial activities; the onus to reverse the damage lies on the developed countries. Singhsaid: "Due
care must be taken not to allow growth and development prospects in the developing world to be
undermined or constrained." Singh emphasized the "principle of common but differentiated responsibility
and respective capabilities between the developed and developing world". his is shorthand for demanding
that the industrialized countries cough up the bulk of the costs for reversing climate change.
Singhadded: "...more and not less development is the best way for developing countries to address
themselves to the issue of preserving the environment and protecting the climate." his means India will
demand special concessions for the developing countries like patent-free technology transfer in respect of
"clean energy", and financial assistance, including venture capital funding, to make a transition towards
reduced greenhouse gas emissions."With such a stonewalling and negative approach, India won't emerge
from the G-8 meeting smelling of roses," says Himanshu Thakkar, South Asia coordinator of Dams, Rivers
and People, which looks closely at climate change issues and which recently highlighted the contribution of
India's large dams to releases of methane, a potent greenhouse gas.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 187
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No Solve – Developing Nations


U.S. can not solve global warming alone

Brookings Institute, June 2006, “Case Closed: The Debate About Global Warming Is Over”,
(http://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/easterbrook/20060517.pdf)

At current rates only Russia, Germany and the United Kingdom are close to complying with the Kyoto
mandates, and most of the compliance by Russia and Germany is the result of backdated credits for the
closing of Warsaw Pact-era power plants and factories that had already been shuttered before the Kyoto
agreement was initialed in 1997. Meanwhile, developing nations especially India and China are
increasing their greenhouse gas emissions at prodigious rates—so much so that in the short term
developing nations will swamp any reductions achieved by the West. Since 1990, India has increased its
emissions of greenhouse gases by 70 percent and China by 49 percent, versus an 18 percent increase by
the United States. China is on track to pass the United States as the leading emitter of artificial greenhouse
gases. If current trends continue, the developing world will emit more greenhouse gases than the West by
around 2025. And here’s the real kicker: even if all the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol were enforced to
perfection, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases in the year 2050 would be only about 1 percent
less than without the treaty.

Developing nations will not model the U.S. on climate change

Rep. Joe Barton, April 23 2007, “What To Do About Global Warming (Hint It Isn’t Cap And Trade Policy)”,
Barton is ranking member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, (http://thehill.com /leading-the-
news/what-to-do-about-global-warming-hint--it-isnt-cap-and-trade-policy-2007-04-23.html)

The irony is that when U.S. environmental policies chase companies out of America, the global environment
doesn’t prosper. Developing countries always swap clean air for economic growth. China’s coal
production, for example, is as explosive as its economic growth, and the Chinese add a 500-megawatt coal-
fired powerplant every week. We also heard that decisions in China about where and what kind of
power plants to build are decentralized, effectively uncontrolled, and we learned that less than 5 percent
of China’s coal-fired electricity plants are even fitted with ordinary sulfur dioxide control equipment.
Even for the ones with SO2 scrubbers, it’s an open question whether those with the equipment actually use it.
Some say if America just sets the example, everybody else will follow. But a real pollutant, sulfur
dioxide, is a fine indicator of how good-example strategy doesn’t work at all. America has been
scrubbing sulfur dioxide out of smokestacks for more than 20 years because it’s a real pollutant, but
China still refuses.

.
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No Solvency – Larger CO2 Decrease Needed


Global Emissions must be cut by 90% to solve warming
George Monbiot, September 21 2006, “An 87% Cut By 2030”, held visiting fellowships or professorships at the universities of Oxford
(environmental policy), he was awarded an honorary doctorate by the University of Essex, United Nations Global 500 Award for outstanding environmental
achievement, author of several best selling books on global warming, (http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2000/06/09/about-george-monbiot/)
Two degrees is the point at which some of the most dangerous processes catalysed by climate change
could become irreversible. This includes the melting of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, which between them could raise global
sea levels by seven metres(1). It includes the drying out of many parts of Africa, and the inundation by salt water of the aquifers used by cities such as
Shanghai, Manila, Jakarta, Bangkok, Kolkata, Mumbai, Karachi, Lagos, Buenos Aires and Lima(2). It also means runaway positive feedback, as the Arctic
tundras begin to release the methane they contain(3), and the Amazon rainforest dies off, turning trees back into carbon dioxide(4,5). In other words, if the
planet warms by 2 degrees, 3 or 4 degrees becomes almost inevitable. So by how much do we need to cut carbon emissions if we are to stop this from happening? The
most persuasive analysis I have seen was compiled by a man called Colin Forrest(6). He is not a professional climate scientist, but the figures he uses have been published in peer-
holding global
reviewed journals. He argues his case as follows: Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact in Germany have estimated that
temperatures to below 2 degrees means stabilising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere at or below the equivalent of 440 parts of carbon dioxide per million(7). While the carbon dioxide
concentration currently stands at 380 parts, the other greenhouse gases raise this to an equivalent of 440 or 450. In other words, if everything else
were equal, greenhouse gas concentrations in 2030 would need to be roughly the same as they are
today. Unfortunately, everything else is not equal. By 2030, according to a paper published by scientists at the Met Office,
the total capacity of the biosphere to absorb carbon will have reduced from the current 4 billion tonnes
a year to 2.7 billion(8). To maintain equilibrium at that point, in other words, the world’s population
can emit no more than 2.7 billion tonnes of carbon a year in 2030. As we currently produce around 7
billion, this implies a global reduction of 60%. In 2030, the world’s people are likely to number around 8.2 billion. By
dividing the total carbon sink (2.7 billion tonnes) by the number of people, we find that to achieve stabilisation the weight of carbon emissions per person
should be no greater than 0.33 tonnes. If this problem is to be handled fairly, everyone should have the same entitlement to release carbon, at a rate no
greater than 0.33 tonnes per year. In the rich countries, this means an average cut by 2030 of around 90%. The United
Kingdom, for example, currently releases 2.6 tonnes of carbon (9.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide) per capita(9), so would need to reduce its emissions by 87%.
Germany requires a cut of 88%, France of 83%, the United States, Canada and Australia, 94%. By contrast, the Kyoto Protocol - the only international
agreement that has been struck so far - commits its signatories to cut their carbon emissions by a total of 5.2% by 2012. These
could be
underestimates. The Potsdam Institute calculates that with the equivalent of 440 parts of carbon dioxide per million of air in the atmosphere, there
is a 67% chance of holding the temperature rise to below 2 degrees(10). Another study suggests that to obtain a 90% chance of
stabilisation below 2 degrees, you would need to keep the concentration below 400 parts per million -
40 or 50 parts below the current level(11). Because the carbon released now stays in the atmosphere for
some 200 years and causes climate change many years into the future, there is perhaps a 30% chance
that we have already blown it. We might already be committed to 2 degrees.

1990 levels are insufficient and solving warming requires global action
JAXA, April 12 2007, “Watching How The Earth Breathes- To Prevent Global Warming”, Japan Aerospace
Exploration Agency, (http://www.jaxa.jp/article/interview/vol28/p3_e.html)
However I still don't think the Kyoto Protocol is sufficient. Its requirement of greenhouse-gas reductions by 6 to 8 percent from
1990 levels is not enough. It has been reported that we must reduce emissions by two thirds or three
quarters in order to keep the average temperature from increasing by 2?degreeC. If the global
temperature increases by just a few degrees, the climate will become unstable, and we'll experience
conditions such as large scale typhoons, or unusually hot or cold weather. It is also believed that the consequences of a global
temperature increase of more than 2 degreeC are not only climate change, but also further acceleration of global warming due to
the melting of polar ice, and the spread of infectious diseases through the increased proliferation of
mosquitoes. I think that the Kyoto Protocol is an insufficient solution to global warming prevention
because, aside from the insufficiency of its reduction targets, the United States and China are outside the framework, despite
being, respectively, the top two producers of greenhouse-gas emissions, followed by Russia and Japan. I think that the U.S. and China, and all the
other nations, must take collaborative actions on global warming, or our Earth will face catastrophic
consequences.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 189
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No Solve – 1990 Levels Fail


1990 CO2 levels cannot stop global warming

Norm Dixon, November 3 2004, “Has a ‘Runaway’ Greenhouse Effect Begun?”, Norm Dixon writes for The
NewStandard. He is also a former editor of Green Left Weekly,(http://www.greenleft.org. au/2004/605/31416)

Rajendra Pachauri, chairperson of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
which pools the expertise of more than 2000 of the world’s climate scientists, warned on October 25 that the
greenhouse gas emission reduction targets established in the 1997 Kyoto agreement do not go far
enough and far more radical solutions must be found. Pachauri welcomed the Russian parliament’s
October 22 ratification of the Kyoto agreement, which will allow the treaty to come into legal force despite
the refusal by the world’s major polluter, the United States, to sign. However, “this mustn’t lull us into
thinking that the problem is solved”, Pachauri told Reuters. “Kyoto is not enough. We have to look at the
problem afresh.” The Kyoto treaty aims for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of around 5% of 1990
levels, far short of the 60-80% over the next 50 years necessary to arrest global warming.

1990 levels are insufficient and solving warming requires global action

JAXA, April 12 2007, “Watching How The Earth Breathes- To Prevent Global Warming”, Japan Aerospace
Exploration Agency, (http://www.jaxa.jp/article/interview/vol28/p3_e.html)

However I still don't think the Kyoto Protocol is sufficient. Its requirement of greenhouse-gas reductions by
6 to 8 percent from 1990 levels is not enough. It has been reported that we must reduce emissions by two
thirds or three quarters in order to keep the average temperature from increasing by 2?degreeC. If the
global temperature increases by just a few degrees, the climate will become unstable, and we'll
experience conditions such as large scale typhoons, or unusually hot or cold weather. It is also believed
that the consequences of a global temperature increase of more than 2 degreeC are not only climate change,
but also further acceleration of global warming due to the melting of polar ice, and the spread of
infectious diseases through the increased proliferation of mosquitoes. I think that the Kyoto Protocol is
an insufficient solution to global warming prevention because, aside from the insufficiency of its
reduction targets, the United States and China are outside the framework, despite being, respectively, the
top two producers of greenhouse-gas emissions, followed by Russia and Japan. I think that the U.S. and
China, and all the other nations, must take collaborative actions on global warming, or our Earth will
face catastrophic consequences.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 190
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No Solve – Price Caps Bad


Carbon price caps damage the economy and will not limit global emissions

Annie Petsonk, March 27 2007, “Climate Change- International Issues, Engaging Developing Countries”, J.D.,
Harvard Law School. Adjunct professor, George Washington University and University of Maryland law schools
(1994-present); trial attorney in Policy, Legislation and Special Litigation, US Department of Justice (1990-1995);
environmental law unit, United Nations Environment Programme (1986-1989),
(http://energycommerce.house.gov/cmte_mtgs/110-eaq-hrg.032707.Petsonk-testimony.pdf)

If Congress enacts a cap and trade program with a cap on total tons of GHG emissions, that program
could dovetail well with existing and emerging international carbon markets, and provide a model for
developing nations to cap their total emissions too. Suppose, however, Congress adopts price controls
(which some have dubbed a kind of "safety valve"), such that if the price of carbon in our market rises
above a certain number of dollars per ton, then government prints more allowances for sale to those
industries at the controlled price. Some of America's trading partners might consider this to be an
actionable subsidy under the World Trade Organization (WTO). Others, particularly industrialized
countries with national cap-and-trade programs, would decide that because the "price cap" busts our
emissions cap, it precludes having the U.S. link to other cap-and-trade markets. But more
fundamentally, what kind of leadership-by-example would this escape hatch show to developing
nations? Some would be tempted to adopt their own escape hatch, patterned on ours. They might set
their prices at our levels, or they might cap prices at significantly lower levels commensurate with their lower
levels of economic development. American low-carbon technologies and highefficiencyproducts might not
be able to compete at price-capped levels in these nations. A downward cascade of protectionist price
caps would lead to a race to the bottom, freezing American ingenuity out of other nations' markets and
sacrificing effective limits on the emissions of all the countries that deploy this kind of escape hatch. To lead
by example, Congress should recognize that the real danger is not that the costs of abatement will be too
high. every serious study, and a nowsubstantialbody of experience with the U.S. Acid Rain Trading Program,
teaches that the costs always turn out to be lower than estimated. The real danger is that price caps will
simply give developing countries a new and additional economic advantage to use against
industrialized countries with emissions caps. To guard against this danger, Congress should refrain
from enacting carbon market price controls.
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No Solve – Aviation
Air travel is a major cause of climate change and produces massive emissions.

IPCC 99 (Inter-governmental panel on climate change, “IPCC Highlights the Growing


Contribution of Aviation to Global Warming”, 6/4, p. 1,
http://www.ipcc.ch/press/index.htm#nobel)
Geneva, Friday, 4 June 1999 - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has today released a
special report on the effect of aviation on the global atmosphere entitled "Aviation and the Global
Atmosphere". The report has been developed over the last two years by a group of more than 100 scientists
from around the world and was endorsed during a three-day IPCC meeting in San Jose, Costa Rica in mid-
April 1999. It represents the results of unprecedented collaboration between the IPCC and the
Scientific Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, and
provides a detailed assessment of the impact of aircraft engine emissions on climate and atmospheric
ozone. Air travel is projected to grow by about five per cent annually until 2015, burning three per cent
more fuel per year in that period. This report finds that aircraft emissions, and their impacts, will be far
greater in 2050 unless new technologies and operational modes are developed. Fuel consumption by
civil aviation is expected to reach 300 million tonnes in 2015 and 450 million tonnes in 2050, compared
to 130 million tonnes in 1992, with corresponding high emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide and water vapour as well as nitrogen oxides and sulphur oxides. The aviation industry has
undergone rapid growth and projections suggest that the trend is likely to continue. It is, therefore,
highly relevant to consider current and possible future effects of aircraft on the atmosphere. The report
considers all the gases and particles emitted by aircraft into the atmosphere and the role which they play in
climate change, and modification of the ozone layer. The report also considers how potential changes in
aircraft technology, air transport operations and the institutional, regulatory and economic framework might
affect emissions in the future. It describes the state of scientific knowledge together with associated
uncertainties.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 192
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No Solve – Pipeline
Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise is inevitable.

IPCC 07 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis


Report”, 12/12-17, p. 24-25)
Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the time scales
associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if GHG concentrations were to be stabilised.
{WGI 10.4, 10.5, 10.7, SPM} If radiative forcing were to be stabilised, keeping all the radiative forcing
agents constant at B1 or A1B levels in 2100, model experiments show that a further increase in global
average temperature of about 0.5°C would still be expected by 2200. In addition, thermal expansion
alone would lead to 0.3 to 0.8m of sea level rise by 2300 (relative to 1980-1999). Thermal expansion would
continue for many centuries, due to the time required to transport heat into the deep ocean. {WGI 10.7,
SPM}Contraction of the Greenland ice sheet is projected to continue to contribute to sea level rise after
2100. Current models suggest ice mass losses increase with temperature more rapidly than gains due to
increased precipitation and that the surface mass balance becomes negative (net ice loss) at a global average
warming (relative to pre-industrial values) in excess of 1.9 to 4.6°C. If such a negative surface mass
balance were sustained for millennia, that would lead to virtually complete elimination of the
Greenland ice sheet and a resulting contribution to sea level rise of about 7m. The corresponding future
temperatures in Greenland (1.9 to 4.6°C global) are comparable to those inferred for the last interglacial
period 125,000 years ago, when palaeoclimatic information suggests reductions of polar land ice extent and 4
to 6m of sea level rise. {WGI 6.4, 10.7, SPM} Dynamical processes related to ice flow – which are not
included in current models but suggested by recent observations – could increase the vulnerability of the ice
sheets to warming, increasing future sea level rise. Understanding of these processes is limited and there is no
consensus on their magnitude. {WGI 4.6, 10.7, SPM} Current global model studies project that the Antarctic
ice sheet will remain too cold for widespread surface melting and gain mass due to increased snowfall.
However, net loss of ice mass could occur if dynamical ice discharge dominates the ice sheet mass balance.
{WGI 10.7, SPM} Both past and future anthropogenic CO2 emissions will continue to contribute to
warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium, due to the time scales required for the removal
of this gas from the atmosphere. {WGI 7.3, 10.3, Figure 7.12, Figure 10.35, SPM}
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No Solve – Wavelength Saturation

No solvency- The carbon cycle will filter light regardless of human contributions

Daly, John (Writer for John Daly.com) “CO2 Absorption Spectrum” http://nov55.com/ntyg.html
1998

Laboratory measurements show that carbon dioxide absorbs to extinction at its main peak in 10 meters under
atmospheric conditions.* This means there is no radiation left at those frequencies after 10 meters. If then
humans double their 3% input of CO2 into the atmosphere, the distance of absorption reduces to 9.7m. A
reduction in distance is not an increase in temperature. Convectional currents stir the heat around
removing any relevance for distance. Scientists who promote the global warming hype try to work around
this fact by claiming something different happens higher in the atmosphere, which they claim involves
unsaturation. The difference due to height is that the absorption peaks get smaller and sharper, so they
separate from each other. Near the earth's surface, the absorption peaks for water vapor partially overlap the
absorption peaks for CO2. Supposedly, in some obfuscated way, separating the peaks creates global
warming. There is no real logic to that claim. It is nothing but an attempt to salvage global warming
propaganda through obfuscation of complexities. This is nothing new. Climate scientists know that more
CO2 does not result in more heat under usual conditions. So the mythologists among them try to salvage the
global warming propaganda by pretending that something esoteric occurs higher in the atmosphere. The
difference is that the absorption peaks for CO2 separate from the peaks for water vapor. Then supposedly,
radiation which misses CO2 does not get picked up by water vapor and travels into outer space; and more
CO2 causes less radiation to get missed on the shoulders of the peaks. Everything about that rationalization
stretches reality to a point of misrepresentation. The increase in CO2 levels could only be relevant for the last
cycle of absorption near the outer edges of the atmosphere, where there is not enough influence of the lower
atmosphere to be significant. But the rationalizers claim it is significant in the mid levels of atmosphere. Not
so. A 3% increase in CO2 would only shorten the distance of radiation travel by 3% before total absorption
occurs. In other words, at mid levels of the atmosphere, the center of the peaks would absorb at about 30m
instead of 10m, while the shoulders would absorb at about 1,000m instead of 300m. Reducing those distance
by 3% is not relevant. But just like relativity, if it takes more than a mouthful of arguing to prove them
wrong, frauds decree the obfuscation to be fact. As shown on the page titled "Crunching the Numbers," the
quantities involved are so miniscule as to be totally incapable of causing global warming. There's another
major reason why the fix is unreal. Supposedly, it is the outer shoulders on the CO2 peaks which are
responsible for global warming. Not only is a small percent of the CO2 influenced by the shoulder radiation,
but the distance increases for absorption. There is more nitrogen and oxygen per CO2 molecule in this area.
Dilution reduces the temperature increase per unit of energy. If there is 5% as much CO2 on the shoulders, it
is spread over 20 times as much space in the atmosphere. This means the temperature effect on the shoulders
should be multiplied times 5% twice—once for the decrease in amount of CO2 and once for the dilution of
the energy in the atmosphere. So much dilution of so few molecules could not be responsible for a significant
amount of temperature increase. The miniscule area of concern on the shoulders of the absorption peak for
CO2 is shown on one of Heinz Hug's graphs, linked below
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No Solve – Wavelength Saturation

The amount of carbon in the atmosphere traps as much heat as is physically possibly

Petschauer 6, Richard (Senior Member IEEE Abstract) 8/28/06 "Carbon Heat Trapping: Merely A Bit Player
in Global Warming"
http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:ARbaZxOAlVQJ:www.junkscience.com/jan08/Global_Warming_Not
_From_CO2_20080124.pdf+Wavelength+Saturation+Carbon&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us

New calculations show that doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) will increase average global temperature by
only about 1F (degrees Fahrenheit) or 0.55C (degrees Centigrade), much less that the range of 2C to 4.5C
estimated by the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These new calculations are
based on NASA supported spectral calculations available on the Internet relating to greenhouse gases. The
temperature increases are estimated to be somewhat more in winter in the colder climates because of reduced
competing atmosphere water vapor, but smaller increases at other times and places. These calculations also
estimate that a 10 percent increase of water vapor in the atmosphere, a stronger greenhouse gas than CO 2 ,
or a reduction in the average cloud cover of only about 2 percent, will increase global temperature about as
much as doubling Co2 would. Each additional doubling of CO2 will cause further temperature increases of
about the same as that caused by the first doubling. Greenhouse gases, except water vapor, only trap heat at
certain narrow wavelengths of infrared radiation related to their molecular structures. Data shows that present
concentrations of CO 2 a strong absorber are already well above the saturation value at its principal
wavelength, so increases in it have a relative small affect. These new calculations are based on atmospheric
models of the energy absorption bandwidths of greenhouse gases coupled with Max Planck’s equations
relating to infrared wavelength distributions.
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***Warming Good – A2: Aff Impacts***


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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: War (1/2)


There is very little evidence that climate change results in more conflict: Many examples
disprove.

Idean Salehyan 2007 (August, Assistant professor of political science at the University of North Texas, “The
New Myth About Climate Change: Corrupt, tyrannical governments-not changes in the Earth’s climate-will be to
blame for the coming resource wars”, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3922, Accessed
6/28/08)

First, aside from a few anecdotes, there is little systematic empirical evidence that resource scarcity and
changing environmental conditions lead to conflict. In fact, several studies have shown that an
abundance of natural resources is more likely to contribute to conflict. Moreover, even as the planet has
warmed, the number of civil wars and insurgencies has decreased dramatically. Data collected by
researchers at Uppsala University and the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo shows a steep
decline in the number of armed conflicts around the world. Between 1989 and 2002, some 100 armed
conflicts came to an end, including the wars in Mozambique, Nicaragua, and Cambodia. If global warming
causes conflict, we should not be witnessing this downward trend.
Furthermore, if famine and drought led to the crisis in Darfur, why have scores of environmental
catastrophes failed to set off armed conflict elsewhere? For instance, the U.N. World Food Programme
warns that 5 million people in Malawi have been experiencing chronic food shortages for several years.
But famine-wracked Malawi has yet to experience a major civil war. Similarly, the Asian tsunami in
2004 killed hundreds of thousands of people, generated millions of environmental refugees, and led to
severe shortages of shelter, food, clean water, and electricity. Yet the tsunami, one of the most extreme
catastrophes in recent history, did not lead to an outbreak of resource wars. Clearly then, there is
much more to armed conflict than resource scarcity and natural disasters.

Creating conflict through climate change ignores the ways in which conflicts have reduced
in response to a lack of resources.

Betsy Hartmann 2007 (November 26, “War Talk and Climate Change”, http://www.truthout.org/article/betsy-
hartmann-war-talk-and-climate-change, Accessed 6/28/08)
These climate scare stories ignore the ways many poorly resourced communities manage their affairs
without recourse to violence. Violent conflict in the Global South is generally more connected to
resource abundance (competition over rich mineral reserves in the Congo or diamonds in Sierra
Leone) than resource scarcity. Moreover, people and nations are as capable of cooperating as they are
prone to fighting. The 1990s specter of violent water wars never materialized because of diplomacy and
water-sharing agreements. Despite grandiose claims that hundreds of millions of 'climate refugees' will
roam the planet, we simply don't know how many people global warming will displace. So much will
depend on how effectively the international community rises to the challenge of reducing poor people's
vulnerability to drought, storms, floods and sea-level rise, and implements strong disaster-response strategies.
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: War (2/2)


Blaming climate change for conflicts only lets tyrannical governments off the hook who are
the real source of the conflict.

Idean Salehyan 2007 (August, Assistant professor of political science at the University of North Texas, “The
New Myth About Climate Change: Corrupt, tyrannical governments-not changes in the Earth’s climate-will be to
blame for the coming resource wars”, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3922, Accessed
6/28/08)

Second, arguing that climate change is a root cause of conflict lets tyrannical governments off the
hook. If the environment drives conflict, then governments bear little responsibility for bad outcomes.
That’s why Ban Ki-moon’s case about Darfur was music to Khartoum’s ears. The Sudanese government
would love to blame the West for creating the climate change problem in the first place. True,
desertification is a serious concern, but it’s preposterous to suggest that poor rainfall—rather than
deliberate actions taken by the Sudanese government and the various combatant factions—ultimately
caused the genocidal violence in Sudan. Yet by Moon’s perverse logic, consumers in Chicago and Paris are
at least as culpable for Darfur as the regime in Khartoum.
To be sure, resource scarcity and environmental degradation can lead to social frictions. Responsible,
accountable governments, however, can prevent local squabbles from spiraling into broader violence,
while mitigating the risk of some severe environmental calamities. As Nobel laureate Amartya Sen has
observed, no democracy has ever experienced a famine. Politicians who fear the wrath of voters
usually do their utmost to prevent foreseeable disasters and food shortages. Accountable leaders are
also better at providing public goods such as clean air and water to their citizens

Viewing conflict in Darfur as part of climate change ignores the role of a corrupt
government.

Betsy Hartmann 2007 (November 26, “War Talk and Climate Change”, http://www.truthout.org/article/betsy-
hartmann-war-talk-and-climate-change, Accessed 6/28/08)

Above all, the nature of institutions and power structures at the local, regional, national and
international levels determines whether conflict over resources turns violent or not. Blaming the deaths
in Darfur on drought and land degradation caused by climate change naturalizes profoundly political
forces. Sudan is one of the most unequal countries in the world, with wealth and power concentrated in
the capital Khartoum. Government agricultural policies that stole land from small peasants and
redistributed it to large mechanized farms not only triggered political and ethnic grievances in Darfur,
but caused ecological damage. It is to history and human agency we should look to understand the
roots of crises like Darfur, not to a weather map.
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AT: Warming Impacts – Forests (1/2)


Warming promotes forest growth

Times Online 07
“Climate Change may help Rainforests” September 21, 2007. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article2500311.ece

Climate change may lead to lush growth rather than catastrophic tree loss in the Amazonian forests,
researchers from the US and Brazil have found. A study, in the journal Science, found that reduced rainfall had led to
greener forests, possibly because sunlight levels are higher when there are fewer rainclouds. But scientists
cautioned that while the finding raises hopes for the survival of the forests, there are still serious threats.
Climate models have suggested that the forests will suffer as the region becomes drier and will release huge
quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Climate models have suggested in the past that the Amazon
will suffer enormous die-backs as the region becomes drier and will release huge quantities of carbon dioxide
into the atmosphere. Deforestation is calculated to be one of the main contributors to the rising carbon dioxide levels that are widely held
by the scientific community to be causing global warming. The loss of the Amazon would cause enormous quantities of carbon dioxide stored in
the vegetation to be released back into the atmosphere, intensifying the warming effect.

Warming has positive effects on Ecosystems


Owen 07
James (Writer for National Geographic) “Global Warming: Good for Greenland?” October 17, 2007.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/10/071017-greenland-warming.html

For some in Greenland these days, the grass is looking greener. Rapid thawing brought on by global warming
on the world's largest island has opened up new opportunities for agriculture, commercial fishing, mining,
and oil exploration. The island's native people, though, may not be on the "winning" side of warming. Scientists now report Arctic
temperatures are rising almost twice as fast as elsewhere in the world. (Related news: "Greenland Ice Sheet Is Melting Faster, Study Says"
[August 10, 2006].) A new WWF Denmark report released last week studied the effects of climate change on the people of Greenland, which is a
self-governing territory of Denmark. "The warmer climate will have a definite positive effect on Greenland's economic
possibilities and development," the report said. In southwestern Greenland, for example, the grass-growing season gets
longer each year, boosting productivity for some 60 sheep farms now established in the region. Up to 23,500 sheep
and lambs are slaughtered annually. Dairy cattle have recently been reintroduced, and a government-led project is expected to
yield 29,058 gallons (110,000 liters) of milk annually, according to the new report. Locally grown potatoes have appeared in supermarkets,
alongside broccoli and other vegetables never before cultivated in Greenland. Commercial fishermen are anticipating bumper cod catches after
the fish recently moved north into Greenland's waters. Halibut are also increasing in size.
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AT: Warming Impacts – Forests (2/2)


Warming stops famine and assists the environment

Stampf 07
Olaf (Writer for Spiegel Online) “Not the end of the World as we Know it” May 07, 2007
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,481684,00.html

How bad is climate change really? Are catastrophic floods and terrible droughts headed our way? Despitewidespread fears of a
greenhouse hell, the latest computer simulations are delivering far less dramatic predictions about
tomorrow's climate. Svante Arrhenius, the father of the greenhouse effect, would be called a heretic today. Far from issuing the sort of dire
predictions about climate change which are common nowadays, the Swedish physicist dared to predict a paradise on earth for humans when he
announced, in April 1896, that temperatures were rising -- and that it would be a blessing for all. Arrhenius, who later won the Nobel
Prize in Chemistry, calculated that the release of carbon dioxide -- or carbonic acid as it was then known -- through burning
coal, oil and natural gas would lead to a significant rise in temperatures worldwide. But, he argued, "by the
influence of the increasing percentage of carbonic acid in the atmosphere, we may hope to enjoy ages with
more equable and better climates," potentially making poor harvests and famine a thing of the past. Arrhenius
was merely expressing a view that was firmly entrenched in the collective consciousness of the day: warm times are good times; cold times are
bad. During the so-called Medieval Warm Period between about 900 and 1300 A.D., for example, the Vikings
raised livestock on Greenland and sailed to North America. New cities were built all across Europe, and the
continent's population grew from 30 million to 80 million.
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Disease


Warming doesn’t cause diseases

Donnelly 7 (John, 12-5, Staff,


http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2007/12/05/a_tussle_over_link_of_warming_disease/)
Donald S. Burke, dean of Pittsburgh's Graduate School of Public Health, noted that the 2001 study found that
weather fluctuation and seasonal variability may influence the spread of infectious disease. But he also noted
that such conclusions should be interpreted with caution.
"There are no apocalyptic pronouncements," Burke said. "There's an awful lot we don't know."
Burke said he is not convinced that climate change can be proven to cause the spread of many diseases,
specifically naming dengue fever, influenza, and West Nile virus.

Other factors outweigh – Disease link limited

World Press 7 (http://www.skepticism.net/articles/2001/does-global-warming-necessarily-mean-more-disease/)


A much hyped claim about global warming — that it will lead to an increase in infectious disease — is
simply not true. Or more precisely, there is a decided lack of evidence to demonstrate the hypothesis
according to a recent National Academy of Sciences report.
Donald Burke, professor of international health for John Hopkins School of Public Health, headed the panel
and said that, “The potential exists for scientists one day to be able to predict the impact of global climate
change on disease, but that day is not yet here.”
Climate conditions do certainly play a role in how diseases are distributed, but today housing conditions,
vaccination, and sanitation systems play an enormous role in the spread of disease. As many commentators
have noted, malaria was an enormous problem in North America well into the 20th century. The disease was
eradicated in the United States and Canada thanks to a large public health intervention to rid the continent of
the disease.
Climate change could cause some changes in infectious diseases, but it is more likely that socioeconomic
factors would play the key role in the spread, or lack thereof, of disease.

No link between climate and disease – Temperature records prove

Kuennen 4 (Tom, http://www.expresswaysonline.com/expwys/diseases.html, Expressways)


"Some scientists fear the effects [of global warming] will be disastrous in numerous ways," reported Dan
Vergano in USA Today in January 2000. "Tropical diseases, such as dengue fever and malaria, might move
north into vulnerable populations."
But a new article published by a journal of the federally funded U.S.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP) points out that malaria was most frequent in England
and Europe during the well-documented "Little Ice Age" of the 16th and 17th centuries, and already was
endemic throughout North America and elsewhere. The article puts ice on the idea that presumed global
warming will lead to catastrophic spread of infectious disease.
In From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age, CDCP disease entomologist Dr.
Paul Reiter proves that spread of so-called "tropical" infectious diseases is a function of depressed public
health, not warmer average temperatures.
Claims that malaria's reappearance is due to climate change ignore
reality and disregard history, Reiter said. "For example, the many statements that recent climate change has
caused malaria to ascend to new altitudes are contradicted by records of its distribution in 1880 to 1945," he
said. "Public concern should focus on ways to deal with the realities of malaria transmission, rather than on
the weather."
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AT: Warming Impacts – Water Shortages


Water shortages wont be widespread – increased rainfall will compensate
M. Falkenmark 7 (Prof at Stockholm International Water Institute)“Global warming: water the main mediator”
http://www.uneca.org/awich/Reports/Global%20warming%20and%20Water%20WF2_07_globalwarming.pdf

In terms of freshwater, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10-
40% at high latitudes but decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics. It
shows that large low- and mid-latitude areas will get up to 40% less runoff already some 40 years from now,
while other low and high latitude areas will get up to 40% more runoff.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 202
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AT: Warming Impacts – Natural Disasters


Warming doesn’t cause disasters

Grist`5 (Grist.com, environmental news & commentary, written by David Roberts, 2005,
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2005/1/6/162641/5470)

Empirical research strongly suggests that global warming has not increased the harmfulness of weather-
related natural disasters in the past century, though it is likely to do so in the future. But even that future
increase pales beside the ongoing rise in disaster-related deaths, which is precipitous and immediate and calls
out for an equally urgent response. Most tools needed to reduce disaster vulnerability already exist, such as
risk assessment techniques, better building codes and code enforcement, land-use standards, and emergency-
preparedness plans. The question is why disaster vulnerability is so low on the list of global development
priorities. Sarewitz and Pielke are too hard on greens in their piece, saying those who link global warming and
natural disasters are either "ill-informed or dishonest" -- even as they acknowledge such a link exists. Their
point, though, is that the link is tenuous and speculative, while the death toll of natural disasters is not. There's
a larger point here for environmentalists. Global warming is a serious issue and warrants concerted action. But
it is not the only issue, and it will not serve the environmental cause well to be associated exclusively with
unremitting climate-change alarmism as a response to every issue. Deforestation, wetlands loss, and over-
development are all ecological issues more directly pertinent to disaster preparedness than global warming.
And on a broader level, the only thing that will prevent these ecological losses is development: lifting the poor of
the world out of poverty, reducing the distance between the gap and the core. Enviros are, as I've said before, often
hobbled by their single-issue focus. If we, not as enviros but as progressives, really want to reduce human suffering
and protect the global environment, our energy and time is often best spent tackling ecological problems indirectly --
by fighting poverty, pushing for third-world debt relief, lobbying for fairer and more progressive tax policy in
developed nations, and working to find and celebrate examples of the kind of entrepreneurial innovations in energy,
transportation, urban planning, medicine, politics, etc. that will create a world where ecological health is a natural
(pardon the pun) side effect.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 203
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AT: Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather (1/3)


There is no consensus and insufficient data to support the idea that warming increases
weather extremes.

Green Facts Digest 01 (peer-reviewed summary of scientific consensus, “Are recent extreme weather events
due to global warming?”, Scientific Facts on Climate Change: 2001 Assessment
http://www.greenfacts.org/studies/climate_change/l_2/global_warming_7.htm)

7.2. Is the occurrence of extreme temperatures increasing? "Data on climate extremes in many regions
of the world are inadequate to draw definitive conclusions about possible changes that may have
occurred on a global scale. However, in some regions where good data are available, there have been some
significant increases and decreases in extreme events over time. For example, there has been a clear trend
to fewer extremely low minimum temperatures in several widely separated areas in recent decades (e.g., Australia,
the United States, Russia, and China). The impact of such changes can manifest itself in fewer freezing days and late season frosts, such as have been
documented in Australia and the United States. Indeed, we expect that the number of days with extremely low temperatures should continue to decrease as
global temperatures rise. Widespread, extended periods of extremely high temperatures are also expected to become more frequent with continued global
warming , such as the unprecedented high nighttime temperatures during the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, and the midwestern United States that
caused an estimated 830 deaths. However, the global frequency of such heat waves has not been analyzed at this time."7 .3. Are precipitation levels
changing? "Higher temperatures lead to higher rates of evaporation and precipitation. As the Earth warms, we expect more precipitation and it is likely to
fall over shorter intervals of time, thereby increasing the frequency of very heavy and extreme precipitation events. Analyses of observed changes in
precipitation intensity have been conducted only for a few countries. Perhaps the best evidence of increases in extreme and very heavy precipitation events
comes from data in North America as depicted for the United States in Figure 8.1. In Australia, which is historically prone to heavy precipitation, an
increase in rainfall amount from major storms has also been observed. Analyses for South Africa also show increases in extreme precipitation rates. In
another area, China, where data have been analyzed for the last several decades, no obvious trends are apparent, but high concentrations of air pollution
(such as sulfate particles that can cool the climate) may be counteracting such changes in this region. There
is as yet no evidence for a
worldwide rise in the frequency of droughts. In the future, however, it is expected that many regions will experience more frequent,
prolonged, or more severe droughts, primarily due to the more rapid evaporation of moisture from plants, soils, lakes, and reservoirs. This is expected to
occur even as precipitation increases and heavy precipitation events become more common." 7.4. Are storms affected by global warming? "Blizzards and
snow storms may actually increase in intensity and frequency in some colder locations as atmospheric moisture increases. In more temperate latitudes,
snowstorms are likely to decrease in frequency, but their intensity may actually increase, as the world warms. Observations
show that
snowfall has increased in the high latitudes of North America, but snow accumulations have melted
faster because of more frequent and earlier thaws. There is evidence of an increase in the frequency of
intense extra- tropical storms in the northern North Atlantic and adjacent areas of Europe, such as the British
Isles, but there has been a decrease in such events in the southern North Atlantic (south of 30°N) over the
past few decades. It remains uncertain as to whether these changes are natural fluctuations or relate to
global warming , because there is little consensus about how global warming will affect these non-
tropical, yet powerful storms. There is little evidence to support any significant long-term trends in the
frequency or intensity of tropical storms, or of hurricanes in the North Atlantic during the past several
decades. Although the hurricane frequency was high during 1995 and 1996, an anomalously low
number of hurricanes occurred during the 1960s through the 1980s, including those hitting the United
States during that period (Figure 8.2). Reliable data from the North Atlantic since the 1940s indicate that the
peak strength of the strongest hurricanes has not changed, and the mean maximum intensity of all hurricanes
has decreased. There is also some evidence for a decrease in the frequency of cyclones in the Indian
Ocean during the past two decades relative to earlier records and an increase in the frequency of
typhoons in the western Pacific. Wide variations in the total number of tropical storms including hurricanes,
typhoons, and cyclones occurring per decade have been observed, with no apparent long-term trends in most
ocean basins. There is little consensus about how global warming will affect the intensity and frequency
of these storms in the future."
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 204
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AT: Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather (2/3)


There’s no good evidence that warming causes extreme weather, and El Nino is a possible
cause.

Terra Daily 07 (“Extreme weather? Sure. Blame global warming? Not so fast”, 8/10,
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/070810015035.5a0gocwm.html)

But establishing a link between climate change and extreme weather is a controversial matter. The UN's
weather agency says its Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found that "the warming of
the climate is unequivocal." Preliminary observations indicated global land surface temperatures in January
and April reached the highest levels ever recorded for those months, it said. "Climate change projections
indicate it to be very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to
become more frequent," it said recently. A study by researchers from the US National Center for Atmospheric
Research and the Georgia Institute of Technology says about twice as many Atlantic hurricanes form each
year on average than a century ago. It blames warmer sea surface temperatures and altered wind patterns
associated with global climate change for "fueling much of the increase," the center said in a statement. But
scientists caution there is not enough evidence to blame global warming for recent extreme weather,
and there are those who say there is no proof that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent.
Barry Gromett of Britain's Met Office weather service said much of the extreme weather was down to
variability in the climate, which is affected by greenhouse gases but also other factors such as El Nino. El
Nino events are when drastic changes in sea temperatures in tropical areas affect atmospheric pressure in the
Pacific Ocean region, having a knock-on effect on rainfall. "There's a danger in taking isolated incidents in
any given year and attributing this to something like climate change," he said. "It's really important to look
for trends over a longer period of time. More heat equals more moisture equals probably higher rains,
so in that respect some of it ties in quite nicely (with climate change). "But there are many different
facets that appear to contradict each other." A study by British Met Office experts released on Thursday
found that natural weather variations actually helped offset the effects of global warming the past couple of
years, but with temperatures set to rise to new records beginning in 2009. Jean Jouzel, a climatologist who
represents France on the IPCC, said "several more years would be needed to establish a link, or to not
establish a link, between these extremes and global warming." "Are the extremes really changing? It's not
so simple, because by definition, the extremes are rare events, and to come up with statistics, some hindsight
is needed," he added.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 205
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AT: Warming Impacts – Crazy Weather (3/3)


No crazy weather – ocean temperatures are constant and their scientists have bad data.

World Climate Report 07 (climate change blog, category “Sea Level Rise”, “Questioning Ocean Warming”,
5/14, http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/05/14/questioning-ocean-warming/)

We just did an internet search on “Ocean Warming” and found an incredible 7.2 million sites! We sampled a
few and found exactly what we expected – endless stories of how the oceans of the world are heating up
at an unprecedented rate; absolutely anything and everything related to the ocean is currently in peril
according to these sites. Even if you live thousands of miles from the sea, ocean warming will negatively
impact you given how ocean temperatures influence weather and climate any place on the planet. Our
survey of “Ocean Warming” internet sites did not reveal anyone questioning whether or not the oceans are
actually warming up – “Ocean Warming” is simply assumed to be a fact. Well, in a recent issue of the Journal
of Physical Oceanography, an article appears entitled “Is the World Ocean Warming? Upper-Ocean
Temperature Trends: 1950–2000”. Once again, we at World Climate Report are attracted to research that
dares to question any of the pillars of the greenhouse scare, and from just the title alone, we knew we would
enjoy this article. We were not disappointed. The article is written by scientists at the School of
Oceanography at the University of Washington and the research was funded by the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration. Harrison and Carson begin their article noting that interest in ocean
temperatures is at an all-time high given the buzz about climate change and the greenhouse effect. They state
that below-surface ocean temperature data are sparse, and the existing data sets involve substantial
“interpolation, extrapolation, and averaging” that may compromise the integrity of results from such
data sets. Harrison and Carson “present results that involve very little manipulation of the data and do
not depend upon an analyzed field.” The scientists organized the temperature observations into 1° latitude
by 1° longitude boxes, and over the past 50 years, huge areas of the southern oceans have no data
whatsoever. Many other oceanic areas have data, but many of the 1° by 1° grid boxes have only one
observation per year. They note that “Our results raise a number of questions about the uncertainty that
should be assigned at present to basin-scale integral ocean thermal quantities, whether zonal averages, basin
averages, or averages over the World Ocean.” Harrison and Carson present a figure showing different
characteristics of their data. Their figure is below (Figure 1) along with their own figure caption. Do you
notice anything odd in the figure? Unless you are looking at this upside-down, you cannot help but notice
cooling in all five graphs for the 1980-1999 time periods (note: the graphs are for different individual
gridcells, not a worldwide average). Another figure in their article is just as interesting. As seen in Figure 2,
temperature trends over the past 50 years reveal some areas of warming, but also many areas of
cooling, as well. In their own words, we learn “The ocean neither cooled nor warmed systematically over
the large parts of the ocean for the entire analysis period.” Also evident in the figure is the oceanic
expanse without data for making such any such assessment; note in their figure caption that five observations
in a decade for at least four decades is all that is required to stay in the analysis! They conclude “Evidently,
oceanic regional trend estimates pose substantial sampling challenges and very long records are needed.”
There are 1,000 ways to interpret their results, but several themes from the research are inescapable. First and
foremost, the authors asked the question “Is the World Ocean Warming” and the answer is definitely not
“yes.” At no point in the article do we find any global assessment of “World Ocean Warming” and no
statement is made about any global trend over the past 50 years. Second, the ocean could be warming or
cooling, and we may not have the data needed to detect such a change in heat content. The research
pair tells us “There are no results to offer for most of the ocean south of 20°S.” Go look at a globe, look
down at it with the South Pole pointing upward. Literally everything you see is south of 20°S, and with little
exception, everything you see is water. Oops, there are no data available to assess whether the water you are
looking at is either warming or cooling.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 206
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AT: Warming Impacts – Fires


Warming doesn’t cause fires

Carpenter, Amanda (Political and Environmental Commentator) “Global Warming Examines committee analyzes
forest fires” November 1, 2007
http://www.townhall.com/columnists/AmandaCarpenter/2007/11/01/global_warming_committee_examines_forest_f
ires

After Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D.-Nev.) blamed climate change for California’s
raging forest fires, House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s (D.-Calif.) newly created global warming
committee tried to prove Reid’s contention true. In an October 24 news conference Reid told reporters,
“One reason that we have fires burning in Southern California is global warming.” Soon after, the
House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, which Pelosi formed in one of
her first acts as Speaker, scheduled a Thursday morning hearing devoted to “examining the scientific
link between a changing climate and the frequency and intensity of wildfires." The committee’s
website features a “skeptic watch” and labels California as a “global warming impact zone.” Other
listed U.S. impact zones include Alaska, Florida and the Midwest. At his hearing, Chairman Rep. Ed
Markey (D.-Mass.) said global warming was not the sole cause of the wildfires but was a contributing
factor. He said, “Global warming does not cause an individual fire or hurricane, and global warming is
not the cause of the California fires.”
Rather, “Global warming’s contribution to wildfires is more subtle and more complex, and scientists
and the firefighting community are just beginning to tease out this complex climate record from those
factors which may be influencing these natural disasters in unnatural ways,” Markey’s written testimony
said.
He noted that it was important that authorities determine which fires were caused by a “young boy playing
with matches…from what started with lighting or a power line collapse or some other common cause of such
fires.” Ranking Member Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R.-Wisc.) expressed strong dissent from Markey. He
said “global warming alarmists” were making Hurricane Katrina and the California fires “the poster children
for global warming.” “Global warming alarmists are using these natural disasters to promote
regulations that will have little or no effect on these forces of nature,” Sensenbrenner said.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 207
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AT: Warming Impacts – Sea Level Rise (1/10)


Sea level rise is inevitable from the end of the last Ice Age – warming slows it down.

Singer 07 (S. Fred, atmospheric physicist, “Global Warming will lower sea level rise, but will politicians listen?”,
6/11, http://www.sepp.org/Archive/NewSEPP/sealevel.html)

But recent observations and new analyses of existing data suggest an opposite outcome: A climate warming
should slow down SL rise not accelerate it. To understand this counterintuitive result, one must first get rid of
false leads --- just like in a detective story. The misleading argument here is the oft-quoted statement that
the climate warmed by 1 F (0.6 C) in the last 100 years AND that SL rose by 18 cm. Both parts of the
statement are true; but the second part does not necessarily follow from the first. The first clue that there
might be something amiss with the logic is hidden in the IPCC report itself. According to their compilation of
data, the contribution to SL rise of the past century comes mainly from three sources: (i) Thermal
expansion of the warming ocean contributed about 4 cm; and (ii) the melting of continental glaciers
about 3.5 cm. (iii) The polar regions, on the other hand, produced a net lowering of SL, with most of this
coming from the Antarctic. (The mechanism is intuitively easy to understand but difficult to calculate: A
warming ocean evaporates more water, and some of it rains out in the polar regions, thus transferring water
from the ocean to the polar ice caps.) The surprising result: When one simply adds up all these
contributions (neglecting the large uncertainties), they account for only about 20 percent of the
observed rise of 18 cm. The climate warming since 1900 cannot be the cause of the SL rise; something
is missing here. The second clue comes from geological observations that SL has been rising for past
centuries at about the same rate as seen by tide gauges in the last 100 years. In other words, SL was
rising even during the cold Little Ice age, from about 1400 to 1850. This provides further support for the
hypothesis that the observed global SL rise since 1900 is reasonably independent of this century’s
temperature rise. The explanation for this riddle had been suspected for some time, based on historic data of
SL rise derived independently from measurements of coral growth [Fairbanks] and from isotope
determinations of ice volume [Shackleton]. But the picture was filled in only recently [Bindschadler 1998]
through estimates of the rate of melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), by tracing its shrinkage
(through the receding position of its “grounding line,” i.e., the line of contact of the ice sheet with the
underlying continental mass) [Just published by Conway et al. in Science, Oct. 8, 1999]. A quite independent
measurement of the rate of release of melt water, using isotopes to identify the melt, has just been reported
and leads to a concordant result [Hohmann et al . 1999]. We can therefore describe the broad scenario as
follows: The strong temperature increase that followed the peak of the last ice age about 18,000 years
ago has melted enough ice to raise global SL by 120 meters (360 feet). The rate of rise was quite high at
first, controlled by the rapid melting away of the ice sheets covering North America and the Eurasian land
mass. These disappeared about 8000 years ago; but then, as SL rose, the WAIS continued to melt, albeit at a
lower rate -- and it is still melting at about this rate today. The principal conclusion is that this melting of the
WAIS will continue for another 7000 years or so, unless another ice age takes over before then. And there is
nothing that we can do to stop this future sea level rise! It is as inevitable as the ocean tides. Fortunately,
coral reefs will continue to grow, as they have in the past, to keep up with SL rise. The rest of us will
just have to adapt, as our ancestors did some 10,000 years ago. At least we are better equipped to deal
with environmental changes. A final note: What about the effects of human-induced global warming on SL
rise? Will it really increase the rate above its natural value, as predicted by the IPCC? We do have a handle
on this question by observing what actually happened when the climate warmed sharply between 1900 and
1940, before cooling between 1940 and 1975. The answer is quite surprising and could not have been derived
from theory or from mathematical models. The data show that SL rise slowed down when the climate
warmed and accelerated when the climate cooled. Evidently, ocean-water thermal expansion and
mountain-glacier melting were less important than ice accumulation on the Antarctic continent (which
lowers SL). By analogy, a future warming produced by an increase in greenhouse gases would give the
same result: i.e., reduce the rate of rise of sea level. This is not a recommendation to burn more coal in
order to save Venice from drowning. It is a modest appeal to politicians to take note of new scientific
developments and recognize that the drastic limits on energy use called for by climate-treaty negotiators will
not stop the rising seas.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 208
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AT: Warming Impacts - Sea Level Rise (2/10)


Lack of acceleration proves warming does not cause sea level rise.

World Climate Report 5/6 (professional climate change blog, category “Sea Level Rise”, “Slower Sea Level
Rise”, 08, http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/05/06/slower-sea-level-rise/#more-323)

One of the major pillars of the greenhouse scare is that sea level is rising due to global warming,
coastlines will be inundated, and disasters will occur in coastal areas throughout the world. Who could ever
forget Al Gore’s documentary showing us the World Trade Center Memorial under water due to sea level
rise? A year ago, climate change hero James Hansen warned the world that non-linearities in the ocean-
atmosphere system could lead to a whopping 5 meter or more sea level rise over this century. As we have
covered many times in the past, sea level is certainly rising – of course, it has been rising for the past
10,000 years. During the last glacial period, sea level dropped 400 feet as water was tied up in ice, and
as we have moved out of the cold glacial period, sea level has recovered. The question for climate
change experts is not “Is sea level rising” but rather “Is sea level rise accelerating?” In 2001, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) wrote “No significant acceleration in the rate of sea
level rise during the 20th century has been detected”, while in 2007, IPCC wrote “Global average sea
level rose at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3] mm per year over 1961 to 2003. The rate was faster over 1993
to 2003: about 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm per year. Whether the faster rate for 1993 to 2003 reflects decadal
variability or an increase in the longer-term trend is unclear.” To say the least, the IPCC has been very
cautious on the issue of accelerated sea level rise. Several articles have been published recently on sea level
rise that caught our eye at World Climate Report. The first appeared recently in Global and Planetary Change
and was written by a pair of scientists with India’s National Institute of Oceanography. Unnikrishnan and
Shankar begin their article noting “Apart from changes in the atmospheric variables, global sea-level rise is
one of the good indicators of climate change. Increase in global atmospheric temperature has a direct effect
on the ocean by causing a rise in ocean temperature and melting of glaciers. Both these processes lead to a
rise in global sea level.” Furthermore, they state “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
reported values between 1–2 mm yr-1 for the 20th century sea-level rise based on tide-gauge data.”
Unnikrishnan and Shankar collected tide gauge data for a variety of stations located at coastal locations
around the Indian Ocean (see Figure 1). They conducted a series of tests for inter-station consistency and
they also adjusted the sea level measurements for vertical land movements. At the end of the day, they found
that the corrected sea level rise in the region over the past five decades was indeed between 1–2 mm yr-1.
However, some of the trends were suspect, so they reduced the number of stations for conducting the
analyses. They state “In conclusion, therefore, we use the estimated trends for Aden, Karachi, Mumbai, and
Kochi in the Arabian Sea and for Vishakhapatnam in the Bay of Bengal. The sea-level rise estimated from
these stations is between 1.06– 1.75 mm yr-1, with an average of 1.29 mm yr-1. Given the problems noted
above with some of the records, the average estimate for the basin is likely to be towards the lower end of
this range.” When compared to global records, they write “The present study indicates that the estimates for
the north Indian Ocean are consistent with global estimates, though somewhat lower.” Imagine that — once
someone collects data in their part of the world, they seem to conclude that sea level is rising at a rate slower
than the rate reported by the IPCC. The second article also appears in Global and Planetary Change and was
prepared by a team of French oceanographers. As their title suggests, Berge-Nguyen et al. collected
thermosteric sea level data based on temperatures in the top 700 meters of the ocean, tide gauge, satellite
altimetry, and ocean reanalysis data. They used a series of sophisticated multivariate statistical techniques
and ultimately produced the graphic below (Figure 2). Like you, we look at this graphic and see a global
increase in sea level of approximately 80 mm over the 54-year time period. The math is simple – the graph
shows a rise of 1.48 mm yr-1. This team from France collected a variety of global sea level datasets, they
conducted a complicated set of analyses, and they produced their best-guess of global sea level for each year
from 1955 to 2003. We see a rise in sea level that is below the estimate of the IPCC and we see no
acceleration through the past five decades. Basically, nothing seems to be happening with sea level that
is remotely out of the ordinary. IPCC certainly seems to be exaggerating the best estimate of sea level
rise, and it make us wonder what else they might be exaggerating.
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AT: Warming Impacts - Sea Level Rise (3/10)


Global warming isn’t increasing sea levels – Antarctica’s cooling proves.

World Climate Report 2/27 (climate change blog, category “Sea Level Rise”, “Slower Sea Level Rise”, 08,
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/02/27/antarctica-ain%e2%80%99t-cooperating/)

When discussing changes (or the lack thereof) in Antarctica, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) most clearly states in their 2007 summary report “Antarctic sea ice extent
continues to show inter-annual variability and localized changes but no statistically significant average
trends, consistent with the lack of warming reflected in atmospheric temperatures averaged across the
region.” Furthermore, IPCC just as clearly states “Current global model studies project that the
Antarctic ice sheet will remain too cold for widespread surface melting and is expected to gain in mass
due to increased snowfall.” It would take anyone with internet access no more than a few seconds to
download the summary from the IPCC website, but once again, the facts are too inconvenient regarding what
is reportedly happening in Antarctica according to the greenhouse advocates. Another major article on
temperature trends in the Antarctic has appeared in a recent issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research by
a team of scientists from Ohio State University, the University of Illinois, and the Goddard Space Flight
Center; the research was funded by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Glaciology
Program. Monaghan et al. begin their lengthy (21 pages – quite long for geophysics) article noting that a
previous research team studying Antarctica examined “station temperature records for the past 50 years and
report statistically insignificant temperature fluctuations over continental Antarctica excluding the Antarctic
Peninsula, with the exception of Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, which cooled by -0.17 K decade-1 for
1958–2000.” That is correct – despite all you have heard elsewhere on the subject, the South Pole has been
cooling over the past half century. The previous research team also reported that any warming in
Antarctica has slowed and the cooling has accelerated in the more recent three decades. According to
Monaghan et al., yet another team previously examined Antarctic temperatures and “note that prior to 1965
the continent-wide annual trends (through 2002) are slightly positive, but after 1965 they are mainly negative
(despite warming over the Antarctic Peninsula).” One of the authors of the Monaghan et al. group had
previously examined trends in temperature “inferred from skin temperatures from Advanced Very High
Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments on polar orbiting satellites” and found “a statistically
insignificant cooling trend over continental Antarctica from 1982 to 1998.” Monaghan et al. further note
“recent literature suggests there has been little overall change in Antarctic near-surface temperature
during the past 5 decades” and “the absence of widespread Antarctic temperature increases is
consistent with studies showing little overall change in other Antarctic climate indicators during the
past 50 years such as sea ice area and snowfall.” OK, you get the message – Antarctica is definitely not
cooperating with this greenhouse scare! Monaghan fairly note that there is still uncertainty “because of the
sparse network of continuous, long-term near-surface temperature records (about 15 stations on a continent 1
1/2 times as large as the United States), there is still considerable uncertainty as to (1) the spatial and
temporal variability of Antarctic near-surface temperature trends and (2) whether the existing network of
stations provides a temperature record that is representative of the entire continent.” Accordingly, they
introduce a new method for using existing temperature records, atmospheric circulation variables,
topography, and a sophisticated interpolation method to build a better temperature representation for the
continent. Now for the bottom line relevant to us. As seen in the figure below (Figure 1), the various
Antarctic-wide temperature patterns are very highly correlated (the new datasets are the “RECON”
designation). The authors have various versions of their “RECON” time series depending on several
decisions made by the team, but the bottom line is obvious, the is little evidence for warming in Antarctica!
They state “All records correlate significantly with all other records during all seasons from 1982 to 2001.
Near-surface temperature trends are statistically insignificant (p >0.05) on annual timescales within every
data set analyzed, for both the longer (1960–2002) and shorter (1982–2001) periods.” Literally hundreds of
articles could appear tomorrow re-confirming their results, the IPCC could continue to report emphatically
that Antarctica is not warming (and may well be cooling), and somehow, this will all translate into claims that
“Antarctica is warming and melting.” The truth from Antarctica is hard for the greenhouse crusade to
accept (although certainly they try hard to fit it in), and in the long run, the truth from Antarctica might
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melt away the flimsy, well-publicized claims about global climate change—especially the concerns of a
rapid sea level rise.
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No risk of sea level rise – their scientists jump to conclusions while evidence indicates key ice
sheets are cooling.
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Climate Change 07 (“The Role of Greenland in Sea
Level Rise: A Summary of the Current Literature”, Science and Public Policy Institute, 8/6,
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/sppi_reprint_series/the_role_of_greenland_in_sea_level_rise_a_summary_of_the_current_literature.html)
In the 24 March 2006 issue of Science, a number of commentaries heralded accelerating discharges of
glacial ice from Greenland and Antarctica, while dispensing dire warnings of an imminent large, rapid and
accelerating sea-level rise (Bindschadler, 2006; Joughin, 2006; Kerr, 2006; Kennedy and Hanson, 2006).
This distressing news was based largely on three reports published in the same issue (Ekstrom et al.,
2006; Otto-Bliesner et al., 2006; Overpeck et al., 2006), wherein the unnerving phenomena were
attributed to anthropogenic-induced global warming, which is widely claimed to be due primarily to increases in the air's CO2
content that are believed to be driven by the burning of ever increasing quantities of fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil. But does all of this make any
sense? Consider the report of Ekstrom et al., who studied "glacial earthquakes" caused by sudden sliding motions of glaciers on Greenland. Over the period
Jan 1993 to Oct 2005, they determined that (1) all of the best-recorded quakes were associated with major outlet glaciers on the east and west coasts of
Greenland between approximately 65 and 76°N latitude, (2) "a clear increase in the number of events is seen starting in 2002," and (3) "to date in 2005,
twice as many events have been detected as in any year before 2002." With respect to the reason for the recent increase in glacial activity on Greenland,
Clayton Sandell of ABC News (23 March 2006) quoted Ekstrom as saying "I think it is very hard not to associate this with global warming," which
sentiment appears to be shared by almost all of the authors of the seven Science articles. Unwilling to join in that conclusion, however, was Joughin, who in
the very same issue presented histories of summer temperature at four coastal Greenland stations located within the same latitude range as the sites of the
glacial earthquakes, which histories suggest that it was warmer in this region back in the 1930s than it was over the period of Ekstrom et al.'s analysis.
Based on these data, Joughin concluded that the recent warming in Greenland "is too short to determine whether it is an anthropogenic effect or natural
variability," a position that is supported - and in some cases even more rigorously - by numerous scientists who have researched the issue, as noted in the
following brief synopses of some of their studies. Hanna and Cappelen (2003) determined the air temperature history of coastal southern Greenland from
1958-2001, based on data from eight Danish Meteorological Institute stations in coastal and near-coastal southern Greenland, as well as the concomitant sea
surface temperature (SST) history of the Labrador Sea off southwest Greenland, based on three previously published and subsequently extended SST data
sets (Parker et al., 1995; Rayner et al., 1996; Kalnay et al., 1996). Their analyses revealed that the coastal temperature data showed a cooling of 1.29°C over
the period of study, while two of the three SST databases also depicted cooling: by 0.44°C in one case and by 0.80°C in the other. In addition, it was
determined that the cooling was "significantly inversely correlated with an increased phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the past few decades."
Image In an even broader study based on mean monthly temperatures of 37 Arctic and 7 sub-Arctic stations, as well as temperature anomalies of 30 grid-
boxes from the updated data set of Jones, Przybylak (2000) found that (1) "in the Arctic, the highest temperatures since the beginning of instrumental
observation occurred clearly in the 1930s," (2) "even in the 1950s the temperature was higher than in the last 10 years," (3) "since the mid-1970s, the annual
temperature shows no clear trend," and (4) "the level of temperature in Greenland in the last 10-20 years is similar to that observed in the 19th century."
These findings led him to conclude that the meteorological record "shows that the observed variations in air temperature in the real Arctic are in many
aspects not consistent with the projected climatic changes computed by climatic models for the enhanced greenhouse effect," because, in his words, "the
temperature predictions produced by numerical climate models significantly differ from those actually observed." In a study that utilized satellite imagery of
the Odden ice tongue (a winter ice cover that occurs in the Greenland Sea with a length of about 1300 km and an aerial coverage of as much as 330,000
square kilometers) plus surface air temperature data from adjacent Jan Mayen Island, Comiso et al. (2001) determined that the ice phenomenon was "a
relatively smaller feature several decades ago," due to the warmer temperatures that were prevalent at that time. In fact, they report that observational
evidence from Jan Mayen Island indicates that temperatures there actually cooled at a rate of 0.15 ± 0.03°C per decade throughout the prior 75 years. More
recently, in a study of three coastal stations in southern and central Greenland that possess almost uninterrupted temperature records between 1950 and
2000, Chylek et al. (2004) discovered that "summer temperatures, which are most relevant to Greenland ice sheet melting rates, do not show any persistent
increase during the last fifty years." In fact, working with the two stations with the longest records (both over a century in length), they determined that
coastal Greenland's peak temperatures occurred between 1930 and 1940, and that the subsequent decrease in temperature was so substantial and sustained
that then-current coastal temperatures were "about 1°C below their 1940 values." Furthermore, they note that "at the summit of the Greenland ice sheet the
summer average temperature has decreased at the rate of 2.2°C per decade since the beginning of the measurements in 1987." At the start of the 20th
century, however, Greenland was warming, as it emerged, along with the rest of the world, from the Image depths of the Little Ice Age. What is more,
between 1920 and 1930, when the atmosphere's CO2 concentration rose by a mere 3 to 4 ppm, there was a phenomenal warming at all five coastal locations
for which contemporary temperature records are available. In fact, in the words of Chylek et al., "average annual temperature rose between 2 and 4°C [and
by as much as 6°C in the winter] in less than ten years." And this warming, as they note, "is also seen in the 18O/16O record of the Summit ice core (Steig et
al., 1994; Stuiver et al., 1995; White et al., 1997)." In commenting on this dramatic temperature rise, which they call the great Greenland warming of the
1920s, Chylek et al. conclude that "since there was no significant increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration during that time, the Greenland
warming of the 1920s demonstrates that a large and rapid temperature increase can occur over Greenland, and perhaps in other regions of the Arctic, due to
internal climate variability such as the NAM/NAO [Northern Annular Mode/North Atlantic Oscillation], without a significant anthropogenic influence."
Image In light of these several real-world observations, it
is clear that the recent upswing in glacial activity on Greenland
likely has had nothing to do with anthropogenic-induced global warming, as temperatures there have
yet to rise either as fast or as high as they did during the great warming of the 1920s, which was clearly
a natural phenomenon. It is also important to recognize the fact that coastal glacial discharge represents only half of the equation
relating to sea level change, the other half being inland ice accumulation derived from precipitation; and when the mass balance
of the entire Greenland ice sheet was recently assessed via satellite radar altimetry, quite a different
result was obtained than that suggested by the seven Science papers of 24 March. Zwally et al. (2005), for
example, found that although "the Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins," it is "growing inland with a small overall mass gain." In fact, for the 11-
year period 1992-2003, Johannessen et al. (2005) found that "below 1500 meters, the elevation-change rate is [a negative] 2.0 ± 0.9 cm/year, in qualitative
agreement with reported thinning in the ice-sheet margins," but that "an increase of 6.4 ± 0.2 cm/year is found in the vast interior areas above 1500 meters."
Spatially averaged over the bulk of the ice sheet, the net result, according to the latter researchers, was a mean increase of 5.4 ± 0.2 cm/year, "or ~60 cm
over 11 years, or ~54 cm when corrected for isostatic uplift." Consequently,
(Continues…)
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(Continued…)
the Greenland ice sheet would appear to have experienced no net loss of mass over the last decade for
which data are available. Quite to the contrary, in fact, it was likely host to a net accumulation of ice,
which Zwally et al. found to be producing a 0.03 ± 0.01 mm/year decline in sea-level. In an attempt to downplay
the significance of these inconvenient findings, Kerr quoted Zwally as
saying he believes that "right now" the Greenland ice sheet is experiencing a net loss of mass. Why? Kerr says Zwally's belief is "based on his gut feeling
about the most recent radar and laser observations." Fair enough. But gut feelings are a poor substitute for comprehensive real-world measurements; and
even if the things that Zwally's intestines were telling him are ultimately found to be correct, their confirmation would only demonstrate just how rapidly the
Greenland environment can change. Also, we would have to wait and see how long the mass losses prevailed in order to assess their significance within the
context of the CO2-induced global warming debate. For the present and immediate future, therefore, we have no choice but to stick with what existent data
and analyses suggest, i.e., that cumulatively since the early 1990s and conservatively (since the balance is likely still positive), there has been no net loss of
Nevertheless, to hear Al Gore and his acolytes talk nowadays, one would think
mass from the Greenland ice sheet.
the Greenland Ice Sheet is teetering on the verge of extinction, melting rapidly and all but "slip-sliding
away" into the ocean, where its unleashed water will raise global sea levels to heights that will radically
alter continental coastlines and submerge major cities. The recent study of Eldrett et al. (2007), however,
provides further new evidence that Mr. Gore's view of the matter is poles away from the truth.
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Warming won’t raise sea levels – studies indicate substantial ice existed in climates much
warmer in the past.

Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Climate Change 07 (“The Role of Greenland
in Sea Level Rise: A Summary of the Current Literature”, Science and Public Policy Institute, 8/6,
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/sppi_reprint_series/the_role_of_greenland_in_sea_level_rise_a_summary_of_the_
current_literature.html)

The five researchers from the School of Ocean and Earth Science of the National Oceanography Centre of
the University of Southampton in the UK report they "have generated a new stratigraphy for three key Deep
Sea Drilling Project/Ocean Drilling Program sites by calibrating dinocyst events to the geomagnetic polarity
timescale." In doing so, they say their detailed core observations revealed evidence for "extensive ice-
rafted debris, including macroscopic dropstones, in late Eocene to early Oligocene sediments from the
Norwegian-Greenland Sea that were deposited between about 38 and 30 million years ago." They further
report that their data "indicate sediment rafting by glacial ice, rather than sea ice, and point to East Greenland
as the likely source," and they conclude that their data thus suggest "the existence of (at least) isolated
glaciers on Greenland about 20 million years earlier than previously documented." Image What is
particularly interesting about this finding, as Eldrett et al. describe it, is that it indicates the presence of
glacial ice on Greenland "at a time when temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
were substantially higher." How much higher? According to graphs the researchers present, ocean bottom-
water temperatures were 5-8°C warmer, while atmospheric CO2 concentrations were as much as four
times greater than they are today. The problem these observations provide for Mr. Gore, to quote Eldrett et
al., is that "palaeoclimate model experiments generate substantial ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere for
the Eocene only in runs where carbon dioxide levels are lower (approaching the pre-anthropogenic level)
than suggested by proxy records," which records indicate atmospheric CO2 concentrations fully two to seven
times greater than the pre-anthropogenic level during the time of the newly-detected ice sheets. What is
particularly interesting about this finding, as Eldrett et al. describe it, is that it indicates the presence of
glacial ice on Greenland "at a time when temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were
substantially higher." How much higher? According to graphs the researchers present, ocean bottom-water
temperatures were 5-8°C warmer, while atmospheric CO2 concentrations were as much as four times greater
than they are today. "Regardless," as the researchers say, their data "provide the first stratigraphically
extensive evidence for the existence of continental ice in the Northern Hemisphere during the Palaeogene,"
which "is about 20 million years earlier than previously documented, at a time when global deep water
temperatures and, by extension, surface water temperatures at high latitude, were much warmer."
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Sea level rise won’t happen – Greenland’s ice sheets are keeping sea levels in check.

Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Climate Change 07 (“The Role of Greenland
in Sea Level Rise: A Summary of the Current Literature”, Science and Public Policy Institute, 8/6,
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/sppi_reprint_series/the_role_of_greenland_in_sea_level_rise_a_summary_of_the_
current_literature.html)

In a preliminary step required to better understand the relationship of glacier dynamics to climate change in
West Greenland, Taurisano et al. (2004) described the temperature trends of the Nuuk fjord area during the
last century. This analysis of all pertinent regional data led them to conclude that "at all stations in the Nuuk
fjord, both the annual mean and the average temperature of the three summer months (June, July and August)
exhibit a pattern in agreement with the trends observed at other stations in south and west Greenland
(Humlum 1999; Hanna and Cappelen, 2003)." As they describe it, the temperature data "show that a
warming trend occurred in the Nuuk fjord during the first 50 years of the 1900s, followed by a cooling
over the second part of the century, when the average annual temperatures decreased by
approximately 1.5°C." Coincident with this cooling trend there was also what they describe as "a
remarkable increase in the number of snowfall days (+59 days)." What is more, they report that "not only
did the cooling affect the winter months, as suggested by Hannna and Cappelen (2002), but also the
summer mean," noting that "the summer cooling is rather important information for glaciological studies,
due to the ablation-temperature relations." Last of all, they report there was no significant trend in annual
precipitation. Hence, we can be thankful that whatever the rest of the Northern Hemisphere may be
doing, the part that holds the lion's share of the hemisphere's ice has been cooling for the past half-
century, and at a very significant rate, making it ever more unlikely that its horde of frozen water will
be released to the world's oceans to raise havoc with global sea level any time soon. In their concluding
discussion, Taurisano et al. remark that the temperature data they studied "reveal a pattern which is common
to most other stations in Greenland." Hence, we can be thankful that whatever the rest of the Northern
Hemisphere may be doing, the part that holds the lion's share of the hemisphere's ice has been cooling for the
past half-century, and at a very significant rate, making it ever more unlikely that its horde of frozen water
will be released to the world's oceans to raise havoc with global sea level any time soon. In addition, because
the annual number of snowfall days over much of Greenland has increased so dramatically over the
same time period, it is possible that enhanced accumulation of snow on its huge ice sheet may be
compensating for the melting of many of the world's mountain glaciers and keeping global sea level in
check for this reason too. Last of all, Greenland's temperature trend of the past half-century has been
just the opposite - and strikingly so - of that which is claimed for the Northern Hemisphere and the
world by the IPCC and its climate-alarmist friends. Furthermore, as Greenland contributes
significantly to the land area of the Arctic, it presents these folks with a double problem, as they have
historically claimed that high northern latitudes should be the first to exhibit convincing evidence of
CO2-induced global warming.
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Multiple alternate causalities to sea level rise and any rise would be small.

World Climate Report 1/4 (climate change blog, category “Sea Level Rise”, “Slower Sea Level Rise”, 08,
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/02/27/antarctica-ain%e2%80%99t-cooperating/)

Yet another major article has appeared on the subject of sea level rise, and the results are not going to be
popular with the developers of the million or so websites on the topic. The article is published in Geophysical
Research Letters, the authors are from Tulane University and the State University of New York at Stony
Brook, and the work was not funded by any horrible industry group. Kolker and Hameed begin their article
stating “Determining the rate of global sea level rise (GSLR) during the past century is critical to
understanding recent changes to the global climate system. However, this is complicated by non-tidal,
short-term, local sea-level variability that is orders of magnitude greater than the trend.” Once again,
some element of the greenhouse scare that might seem simple at first glance appears to be a lot more
complicated than we originally may have thought. The authors further note that “Estimates of recent rates
of global sea level rise (GSLR) vary considerably” noting that many scientists have calculated rates of 1.5
to 2.0 mm per year over the 20th century. They also show that other very credible approaches have led to a
1.1 mm per year result, and they note that “the IPCC [2007] calls for higher rates for the period 1993–2003:
3.1 ± 0.7.” They state that “Debate has centered on the relative contribution of fresh water fluxes,
thermal expansion and anomalies in Earth’s rotation.” We thought the “debate” regarding anything
related to global warming was over, but yet another article suggests to us that some debate still exists – very
interesting. They further state that “Determining GSLR rates is complicated by non-tidal, year-to-year
variability in local mean sea level that is one to two orders of magnitude greater than the long-term trend,
potentially masking changes in the rate of rise. The cause of this variability is largely unknown, although it
has been linked to storms, winds and floods, wind driven Rossby waves, shifts in major ocean currents
such as the Gulf Stream, volcanically induced ocean heat content variations, and in the Pacific Ocean,
the El Nino Southern Oscillation.” Alright, enough about all these unknowns and debates regarding sea level
rise. Kolker and Hameed gathered long-term data regarding the Icelandic Low and the Azores High to
capture variation and trend in atmospheric “Centers of Action” associated with the North Atlantic
Oscillation which is regarded as “One potential driver of Atlantic Ocean sea level.” As seen in Figure 1,
these large-scale features of atmospheric circulation vary considerably from year-to-year and appear to
change through time in terms of latitude and longitude. You see where this is heading? Next up, the authors
used to “Centers of Action” data to predict sea levels around the North Atlantic. They used the raw sea level
measurements made around the basin, and the also used sea level data that were corrected to account for the
“glacial isostatic adjustment” (GIA) and the mysterious “inverse barometer” (IB) effect. Very simply stated,
the IB is related to deviations in sea-surface elevation in response to deviations in atmospheric pressure. As
seen below (Figure 2), the COA data do a wonderful job predicting sea levels at Halifax, New York City,
Charleston, Stockholm, and Cascais (coastal town near Lisbon). Kolker and Hameed note that “Overall, our
multiple regressions can account for 59–79% of the variability in the RAW sea level data and 24–79%
of the IB + GIA adjusted data. These findings suggest that meteorological processes drive coastal sea-
level variability by redistributing water, heat, and the response of the ocean to atmospheric pressure
across the ocean basin.” Kolker and Hameed used these relationships to statistically control for variations
and trends in atmospheric circulation. They find that the “residual” sea level rise (that not explained by
COA variability) in the North Atlantic lies somewhere between 0.49±0.25mm/yr and 0.93±0.39mm/yr
depending on the assumptions they employ, which is substantially less than the 1.40 to 2.15 mm per year
rise found in the data corrected for the glacial isostatic adjustment. This “residual” sea level rise includes
both local processes such as sedimentation changes, as well as larger-scale processes such as rising global
temperatures. Whether or not the influences of rising global temperature lie completely within the
residual, or whether they also are co-mingled with the COA variation is a question that seems to be not
sufficiently answered by the described methodology, but, nevertheless, the authors feel certain that they
have adequately isolated the global influence in the residuals of their analysis. When extrapolating from
their North Atlantic results to the globe at large, they suggest that their research yields a global sea
level rise near 1.1 mm per year which is well below IPCC and other estimates.
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Sea level rise is decelerating despite warming.

World Climate Report 1/4 (climate change blog, category “Sea Level Rise”, “Slower Sea Level Rise”, 08,
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/02/27/antarctica-ain%e2%80%99t-cooperating/)

One of the pillars of the global warming scare is that sea level is rising, the rise is accelerating due to
ever higher global temperatures, and in the absence of some immediate policy to curb emissions of
greenhouse gases, the sea level rise will inundate islands and coastlines throughout the world. Who could
ever forget seeing the World Trade Center Memorial under water in Gore’s blockbuster movie? In addition,
no fewer than 1.4 million websites are found if you search “Global Warming and Sea Level Rise.” Many
would be shocked to find anyone daring to question accelerated sea level rise, and yet, as covered many
times before in World Climate Report, the scientific literature is full of surprises when it comes to global
warming and sea level rise. How many would believe that global sea level actually dropped for a period in
the mid-to-late 1990s? Well, it is true, and an article in the recent issue of Geophysical Research Letters
provides some shocking news for those who never question the accelerated sea level rise axiom. S.J. Holgate
of the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory in Liverpool, UK correctly notes that “When it comes to
calculating long term global sea level means from tide gauge data, there are a number of problems.
Firstly there is a bias in the distribution of tide gauges towards certain regions, notably Northern Europe
and North America. Secondly there is the problem that not all tide gauge records are of equivalent
quality. This can either be due to their location (being for example in an earthquake-prone region or an area
of high glacial isostatic adjustment, GIA) or due to the quality of the instrumental record (being perhaps too
discontinuous or lacking critical datum information to account for local vertical land movements).” Taking
these concerns into account, Holgate notes that an extremely high quality database has been developed for
nine stations around the world including New York (1856–2003), Key West (1913–2003), San Diego (1906–
2003), Balboa (1908–1996), Honolulu (1905–2003), Cascais (1882–1993), Newlyn (1915–2004), Trieste
(1905–2004), and Auckland (1903–2000). These tide gauge stations (Figure 1) have long term data that have
been carefully recorded relative to a consistent reference level on the nearby land. Holgate states “Hence the
tide gauge data presented here is of the very highest quality available. All these records are almost continuous
and are far away from regions with high rates of vertical land movement due to GIA or tectonics.” nTo begin
with the results, Holgate notes that “All the stations in this study show a significant increase in sea level
over the period 1904–2003 with an average increase of 174 mm during that time. This mean rate of 1.74
mm/yr is at the upper end of the range of estimates for the 20th century in the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, Third Assessment Report.” Well, it seems sea level is rising at what many would call an
alarming rate of 174 mm (6.8 inches) per century, although this hardly seems alarming to us But here
comes the big surprise. The Figure 2 shows decadal rates of sea level change over the past century, and as
noted by Holgate “the two highest decadal rates of change were recorded in the decades centred on 1980
(5.31 mm/yr) and 1939 (4.68 mm/yr) with the most negative decadal rates of change over the past 100 years
during the decades centred on 1964 (-1.49 mm/yr) and 1987 (-1.33 mm/yr).” How about that – the greatest
global sea level rise occurred around 1980, well before the greenhouse scare got off the ground. Also, it
is immediately obvious that the rate of sea level rise during most recent couple of years has been, well,
unremarkable, with declining sea levels for a short period in the mid-to-late 1990s. Holgate then writes
“Despite the high decadal rates of change in the latter part of the 20th century, it is found that the first half of
the record (1904–1953) has a higher rate of rise overall (2.03 ± 0.35 mm/yr) than the 1954–2003 period
which had a rate of 1.45 ± 0.34 mm/yr.” Adding more salt to the wounds of the global warming advocates,
Holgate notes “However, a greater rate of rise in the early part of the record is consistent with previous
analyses of tide gauge records which suggested a general deceleration in sea level rise during the 20th
century.” Finally, we learn “not only is there considerable decadal variability in the individual sea level
records, but there is generally little correlation between them. Stations which are in close proximity and
which are affected by similar ocean and atmospheric processes show the greatest correlation.”
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Sea level rise has been steady for 1000 years – greenhouse gases aren’t the cause.

World Climate Report 1/4 (climate change blog, category “Sea Level Rise”, “Slower Sea Level Rise”, 08,
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/02/27/antarctica-ain%e2%80%99t-cooperating/)

In conclusion, Larsen and Clark note that “there is no discernible divergence in the rate of sea-level rise
over the past two centuries to suggest a connection with the documented increase in atmospheric CO2
concentration.” This conclusion is reinforced with the comment that over 1,000s of years “the rate of sea-
level rise has been linear over this time period and shows no indication of the pronounced mid-20th-
century increase” with any increase in global temperature. And for even more interesting evidence, they
write “Worthy of note is the apparent opposite direction of the sea-level trends for the past few decades,
which show rise in North America and fall in the Baltic, thus arguing against recent acceleration in
sea-level rise.” They wrap up their interesting article stating “One of the conclusions of our study is that
there has been a tendency to splice together rates of sea-level rise with little regard to the suitability of
scale and to derive curves that show steadily increasing rates of sea-level rise.”
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Any sea level rise would take millennia.

Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Climate Change 07 (“The Role of Greenland
in Sea Level Rise: A Summary of the Current Literature”, Science and Public Policy Institute, 8/6,
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/sppi_reprint_series/the_role_of_greenland_in_sea_level_rise_a_summary_of_the_
current_literature.html)

Other evidence that contradicts climate-alarmist contentions of the impending demise of the Greenland Ice
Sheet has been around for several years. Cuffey and Marshall (2000), for example, reevaluated previous
estimates of the Greenland Ice Sheet's contribution to sea level rise during the last interglacial (a rise of
one to two meters), based on a recalibration of oxygen-isotope-derived temperatures from central Greenland
ice cores. The results of their analysis suggested that the Greenland Ice Sheet was much smaller during the
last interglacial than had previously been thought, with melting of the ice sheet contributing somewhere
between four and five and a half meters to sea level rise. Although these results suggest that wastage of the
Greenland Ice Sheet could potentially raise sea levels considerably more than had previously been believed,
Hvidberg (2000) put a positive spin on the subject by stating that "high sea levels during the last
interglacial should not be interpreted as evidence for extensive melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,
and so challenges the hypothesis that the West Antarctic is particularly sensitive to climate change,"
which is good news, as West Antarctica presents a much greater threat to global sea level rise than does
Greenland. Also, whereas the possibility exists that sea levels in the present interglacial could yet rise to
the heights of those of the last interglacial as a result of a major shrinking of the Greenland Ice Sheet,
Cuffey and Marshall estimate that the ice sheet's widespread melting during the prior interglacial took
place over the course of a few millennia, as opposed to the decades that could be counted on one's hands
and toes that are suggested by Al Gore's scaremongering
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 219
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Refugees (1/2)


There are many alternate causalities to displacement of refugees: Viewing them as climate
refugees distorts the situation and leaves out many other factors.

Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog 2008 (April, Norweigan Refugee Council, “Future floods of refugees: A
comment on climate change, conflict and forced migration”, http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf, Accessed
6/28/08)

The term “climate refugees” implies a mono-causality that one rarely finds in human reality. No one
factor, event or process, inevitably results in forced migration or conflict. It is very likely that
climate change impacts will contribute to an increase in forced migration. Because one
cannot completely isolate climate change as a cause however, it is difficult, if not impossible, to
stipulate any numbers. Importantly, the impacts depend not only on natural exposure, but also on the
vulnerability and resilience of the areas and people, including capacities to adapt. At best, we have
“guesstimates” about the possible form and scope of forced migration related to climate change.

Empirically, migration isn’t dangerous

Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog 2008 (April, Norweigan Refugee Council, “Future floods of refugees: A
comment on climate change, conflict and forced migration”, http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf, Accessed
6/28/08)

Importantly, not all migration related to environmental change is necessarily forced migration.
Migration is one of the oldest coping strategies for dealing with environmental change. Particularly in
semi-arid regions such as the Sahel (the area between Sahara and the more fertile region in the south),
there are traditions of migration such as nomadic pastoralism and long-distance trade. Much of this
migration is internal and temporary following weather cycles. Where people have a history of crossing
borders, it may be considered legitimate and legal due to custom and tradition, but the control of borders has
increased drastically in the last decades. Having looked at case studies and historical material from the Sahel,
Black concludes that much of the migration could be seen as an essential part of the economic and social
structure of the region, rather than forced migration caused by environmental degradation.17
Migration can depend both on personal characteristics of the affected individuals and on various other
external conditions. Vulnerability can be defined as the “susceptibility of individuals and societies to
such hazards as conflict and climate change, and their capacity to plan for, adapt to and resist changes
in their environment and living conditions.”18 The degree of vulnerability and resilience is contextual
and depends on socio-economic condition (poverty often makes people vulnerable), gender, age,
disability, ethnicity, the realisation of human rights and other criteria that influence people’s ability to
access resources and opportunities. Factors often overlap or reinforce each other: families’ economic
vulnerability may be increased by the regional economic structure or activity, such as unequal rights of
ownership or the absence of social security arrangements.19 Migration is significantly determined by the
role of local and national institutions, which in turn can be influenced by global socioeconomic and
political factors.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 220
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Refugees (2/2)


There are many factors associated with refugees besides the environment including poverty
and disease.

Norman Myers 2005 (May, Professor at Oxford University, “Environmental Refugees: An


Emergent Security Issue”, http://www.osce.org/documents/eea/2005/05/14488_en.pdf,
Accessed 6/28/08)
Poverty serves as an additional "push" factor associated with the environmental problems displacing
people. Other factors include population pressures, malnutrition, landlessness, unemployment, over-
rapid urbanisation, pandemic diseases and faulty government policies, together with ethnic strife and
conventional conflicts. In particular, it is sometimes difficult to differentiate between refugees driven
by environmental factors and those impelled by economic problems. In certain instances, people with
moderate though tolerable economic circumstances at home feel drawn by opportunity for a better
livelihood elsewhere. They are not so much pushed by environmental deprivation as pulled by
economic promise. This ostensibly applies to many Hispanics heading for the United
States. But those people who migrate because they suffer outright poverty are
frequently driven also by root factors of environmental destitution. It is their
environmental plight as much as any other factor that makes them economically
impoverished. This generally applies to those refugees who migrate to areas where
economic conditions are little if any better than back home, as is the case with many
people who migrate within Sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent. In this
instance, with poverty and "life on the environmental limits" as the main motivating
force, it matters little to the migrants whether they view themselves primarily as
environmental or economic refugees.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 221
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Refugees – Security K (1/2)


Blaming climate change for conflict is only a security reason to intervene in African
countries and divert attention away from the real solutions to climate change.

Betsy Hartmann 2007 (November 26, “War Talk and Climate Change”, http://www.truthout.org/article/betsy-
hartmann-war-talk-and-climate-change, Accessed 6/28/08)
Why are climate change threat scenarios taking hold when there is so little credible evidence to support them? It is
one of the oldest games in town to dress up issues as dangerous security threats to garner media attention, funding
and political support. The climate change case is no exception. In Washington, DC, environmental lobbyists are
linking climate change to national security in order to persuade conservative members of Congress to pass
legislation capping carbon emissions. In the UK, Christian Aid is drumming up fear of a new "human tide" of climate
refugees creating "a world of many more Darfurs" in order to raise money for its development projects. Presumably, the
Nobel committee needed a reason - the threat of war - to justify giving Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change the peace prize for their work on global warming.
Those who pursue such strategies usually claim they are simply being pragmatic in the service of worthy goals,
but their appeals to fear and security have negative consequences. They buttress and expand national security
agendas while undermining the role of civilian institutions seeking practicable, democratic solutions. And
intentionally or not, they reinforce racial stereotypes.
Take the notion of climate refugees. The image drawn is not of rich, white landowners losing their beachfront
property, but of poor, dark people swarming toward our borders. A 2003 Pentagon-sponsored Abrupt Climate
Change Scenario warned of the need to strengthen US defenses against "unwanted starving immigrants" from the
Caribbean, Mexico and South America. Fomenting fear of climate refugees adds fuel to the fire of the anti-immigrant
backlash in both the US and Fortress Europe. In January 2007, the Halliburton subsidiary Kellogg, Brown and Root won
a contract from the US government to augment existing immigration detention and removal facilities "in the event of an
emergency influx of immigrants into the US."
The term climate refugee is also wantonly applied to poor African-Americans internally displaced by Hurricane
Katrina. "The first massive movement of climate refugees has been that of people away from the Gulf Coast of the
United States," stated environmentalist Lester Brown, director of the Earth Policy Institute, in 2006. Even if we knew -
which we don't - that Katrina was definitively caused by climate change, would it make sense to describe evacuees
in such a manner? The extent of the disaster in New Orleans had much more to do with racial inequality and
government incompetence than the strength of Katrina's winds.
Equally worrying, climate change war talk gives the US military added justification for overseas interventions,
especially in Africa. American defense officials are currently citing the threat of climate-induced disorder and
terrorism to legitimize the establishment of AFRICOM, the Bush administration's controversial new regional military
command for Africa. The CNA defense think tank's influential 2007 report, "National Security and the Threat of
Climate Change," emphasizes how resource scarcity, environmental degradation and climate change are likely to
trigger violent conflict in Africa. According to its recommendations:
Some of the nations predicted to be most affected by climate change are those with the least capacity to adapt or
cope. This is especially true in Africa, which is becoming an increasingly important source of US oil and gas
imports. Already suffering tension and stress resulting from weak governance and thin margins of survival due to
food and water shortages, Africa would be yet further challenged by climate change. The proposal by the
Department of Defense (DOD) to establish a new Africa Command reflects Africa's emerging strategic importance
to the US, and with humanitarian catastrophes already occurring, a worsening of conditions could prompt further
US military engagement.
Concern is also rising that the (DOD) may invest in expensive and risky technological schemes to control the
climate. The Pentagon's Abrupt Climate Change Scenario, for example, recommended the DOD "explore geo-
engineering options that control the climate." A far better approach would be for the military to clean up its own act. The
DOD is the largest single consumer of fuel in the US, and the present war in Iraq is not only wasting lives, but millions of
gallons of oil daily.
In the climate change arena, the appeal to the "high politics" of national security is low politics. It demonizes the
people who have the least responsibility for global warming, turning them into a dangerous threat. Solutions to the
urgent problem of climate change lie not in beating the war drums, but in taking responsibility for our own
actions and working together across borders, in peace.
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Refugees – Security K (2/2)


The use of the term “climate refugees” is just used to create a security agenda after the
Cold War where the developed north feels scared of the refugees from the south.

Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog 2008 (April, Norweigan Refugee Council, “Future floods of refugees: A
comment on climate change, conflict and forced migration”, http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf, Accessed
6/28/08)

Arguably, the prevalent use of the term today is linked to the agendas of environmentalists, conflict
researchers and a heterogeneous group of security people. The estimated numbers of climate or
environmental refugees are often used to sensitise public opinion and decision-makers to the issue of
global warming. There seems to be some fear in the developed countries that they, if not
literally flooded, will most certainly be flooded by the ”climate refugees”. With the end of
the Cold War, attention shifted away from super-power rivalry, and the environment as a potential
cause for conflict and forced migration has provided new material for conflict and security
researchers. By “securitizing” the issue of climate change, environmentalists and others may have
succeeded in getting it on the international agenda and into the minds of decision-makers. On the other
hand, the security discourse can serve to make new areas relevant for military considerations and
promote repressive tendencies. A fundamental critique is found in the context of north-south discourse
where “environmental security” is seen as a colonisation of the environmental problems, suggesting
that the underdeveloped south poses a physical threat to the prosperous north by population
explosions, resource scarcity, violent conflict and mass migration.10

Securitizing conflict through military solutions only shifts focus away from technological
solutions, which are the real solution to climate change, turning the case.

Idean Salehyan 2007 (August, Assistant professor of political science at the University of North Texas, “The
New Myth About Climate Change: Corrupt, tyrannical governments-not changes in the Earth’s climate-will be to
blame for the coming resource wars”, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3922, Accessed
6/28/08)

Third, dire predictions about the coming environmental wars imply that climate change requires
military solutions—a readiness to forcibly secure one’s own resources, prevent conflict spillovers, and
perhaps gain control of additional resources. But focusing on a military response diverts attention
from simpler, and far cheaper, adaptation mechanisms. Technological improvements in agriculture, which
have yet to make their way to many poor farmers, have dramatically increased food output in the United
States without significantly raising the amount of land under cultivation. Sharing simple technologies with
developing countries, such as improved irrigation techniques and better seeds and fertilizers, along
with finding alternative energy supplies and new freshwater sources, is likely to be far more effective
and cost saving in the long run than arms and fortifications. States affected by climate change can
move people out of flood plains and desert areas, promote better urban planning, and adopt more
efficient resource-management systems.

Securitizing climate change only takes responsibility away from governments and prevents
true solutions of climate change.

Idean Salehyan 2007 (August, Assistant professor of political science at the University of North Texas, “The New Myth About Climate
Change: Corrupt, tyrannical governments-not changes in the Earth’s climate-will be to blame for the coming resource wars”,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3922, Accessed 6/28/08)
Dire scenarios like these may sound convincing, but they are misleading. Even worse, they are
irresponsible, for they shift liability for wars and human rights abuses away from oppressive, corrupt
governments. Additionally, focusing on climate change as a security threat that requires a military
response diverts attention away from prudent adaptation mechanisms and new technologies that can
prevent the worst catastrophes.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 223
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Biod (1/3)


C02 saves more species than global warming hurts

Center for Science and Public Policy 6 (Jan 12.,


http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/co2weekly/20060112/20060112_02.html)
In concluding his analysis, Wallace says "there can be no greater global challenge today on which physical and social scientists can work
together than the goal of producing the food required for future generations," and in this regard he notes that a "concerted focus on
improving water use efficiency ... will increase the productivity of both rain fed and irrigated agriculture." If this approach is taken, and
if we do nothing unwise or counter-productive with respect to the effort (such as trying to reduce anthropogenic
CO2 emissions), then, as Wallace states in his final sentence, "the prize is that more areas of the world, and
especially those arid and semi-arid areas where population growth is greatest, will be able to sustain
their future populations." In light of the many significant problems we face in attempting to produce the food we will need to
sustain ourselves in the not too distant future, one may well wonder, as did Waggoner (1995): "How much land can ten billion people
spare for nature?" As noted by Huang et al. (2002), human populations "have encroached on almost all of the
world's frontiers, leaving little new land that is cultivatable." And in consequence of humanity's ongoing usurpation
of this most basic of natural resources, Raven (2002) notes that "species-area relationships, taken worldwide in relation to habitat
destruction, lead to projections of the loss of fully two-thirds of all species on earth by the end of this century." If
one were to pick the most significant problem currently facing the biosphere, this would probably be it: a single species of life, Homo
sapiens, is on course to completely annihilate fully two-thirds of the ten million or so other species with which
we share the planet within a mere hundred years, simply by taking their land. Global warming, by comparison, pales in
significance. Its impact is nowhere near as severe, being possibly nil or even positive. In addition, its root cause is highly
debated; and actions to thwart it are much more difficult, if not impossible, to both define and implement. Furthermore, what many
people believe to be the cause of global warming, i.e., anthropogenic CO2 emissions, may actually be a powerful force
for preserving land for nature.

C02 means more animal habitat- key to biodiversity

Gregory 8 (B.A.Sc. Mechanical Engineering,


http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/FOS%20Essay/Climate_Change_Science.html)
As indicated previously, both higher temperatures and CO2 concentrations enhance plant growth,
especially for trees. This increases the habitat available for many animals. The bulk of scientific
studies show an increase in biodiversity almost everywhere on Earth that is not restricted by habitat
destruction in response to global warming and atmospheric CO2 enrichment.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 224
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Biod (2/3)

Arial fertilization of C02 increases agricultural efficiency, decreases demand on scarce land
resources and prevents the largest species die-off in history.

Center for Science and Public Policy 6 (Jan 12,


http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/co2weekly/20060112/20060112_02.html)
Thus, with respect to all three of the major needs noted by Tilman et al. (2002), increases in the air's CO2
content pay huge dividends, helping to increase agricultural output without the taking of land away
from nature. In conclusion, it would appear that the extinction of two-thirds of all species of plants and
animals on the face of the earth is essentially assured within the next century, unless world agricultural
output is dramatically increased. This unfathomable consequence hangs over us simply because we will
need more land to produce what is required to sustain ourselves and, in the absence of the needed
productivity increase, because we will simply take land from nature to keep ourselves alive. It is also the
conclusion of scientists who have studied this problem in depth that the needed increase in agricultural
productivity is not possible, even with anticipated improvements in technology and expertise. With the
help of the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content, however, we should be able - but just barely - to meet
our expanding food needs without bringing down the curtain on the world of nature. That certain forces
continue to resist this reality is truly incredible. More CO2 means life for the planet; less CO2 means death ...
and not just the death of individuals, but the death of species. And to allow, nay, to cause the extinction of
untold millions of unique plants and animals has got to rank close to the top of all conceivable immoralities.
We humans, as stewards of the earth, have got to get our priorities straight by getting our facts straight. We
have got to do all that we can to preserve nature by helping to feed humanity; and to be successful, we have
got to let the air's CO2 content rise. Any policies that stand in the way of that objective are truly obscene.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 225
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Biod (3/3)

Arial fertilization of C02 raises agricultural efficiency and saves natural habitat and is key
to sustaining biodiversity.

Center for Science and Public Policy 6(Jan 12,


http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/co2weekly/20060112/20060112_02.html)
What parts of the world are likely to be hardest hit by the human land-eating machine? As
described in our Editorials " 2 May 2001 and 13 June 2001, Tilman et al. (2001) note that
developed countries are expected to actually withdraw large areas of land from cultivation
over the next 50 years, leaving developing countries to shoulder essentially all of the burden
of feeding the growing numbers of our species. In addition, they calculate that the loss of
these countries' natural ecosystems to cropland and pasture will amount to about half of
all potentially suitable remaining land, which "could lead to the loss of about a third of
remaining tropical and temperate forests, savannas, and grasslands," along with the
many unique species of both plants and animals that they support, which scenario has
also been discussed. What can be done to alleviate this bleak situation? In another analysis of
the problem, Tilman et al. (2002) introduce a few more facts before suggesting some
solutions. They note, for example, that by 2050 the human population of the globe is projected
to be 50% larger than it is today and that global grain demand could well double, due to
expected increases in per capita real income and dietary shifts toward a higher proportion of
meat. Hence, they but state the obvious when they conclude that "raising yields on existing
farmland is essential for 'saving land for nature'." So how is it to be done? Tilman et al.
(2002) suggest a strategy that is built around three essential tasks: (1) increasing crop yield per
unit of land area, (2) increasing crop yield per unit of nutrients applied, and (3) increasing crop
yield per unit of water used. With respect to the first of these requirements, Tilman et al. note
that in many parts of the world the historical rate of increase in crop yields is declining, as the
genetic ceiling for maximal yield potential is being approached. This observation, they say,
"highlights the need for efforts to steadily increase the yield potential ceiling." With respect to
the second requirement, they note that "without the use of synthetic fertilizers, world food
production could not have increased at the rate it did [in the past] and more natural ecosystems
would have been converted to agriculture." Hence, they say the ultimate solution "will
require significant increases in nutrient use efficiency, that is, in cereal production per unit
of added nitrogen, phosphorus," and so forth. Finally, with respect to the third requirement,
Tilman et al. note that "water is regionally scarce," and that "many countries in a band from
China through India and Pakistan, and the Middle East to North Africa either currently or will
soon fail to have adequate water to maintain per capita food production from irrigated land."
Increasing crop water use efficiency, therefore, is also a must. Although the impending
biological crisis and several important elements of its potential solution are thus well defined,
Tilman et al. (2001) report that "even the best available technologies, fully deployed,
cannot prevent many of the forecasted problems." However, we have a powerful ally in
the ongoing rise in the atmosphere's CO2 concentration that can provide what we can't.
For a nominal doubling of the air's CO2 content, for example, the productivity of earth's
herbaceous plants rises by 30 to 50% (Kimball, 1983; Idso and Idso, 1994), while the
productivity of its woody plants rises by 50 to 80% (Saxe et al. 1998; Idso and Kimball,
2001). Hence, as the air's CO2 content continues to rise, so too will the land use efficiency
of the planet rise right along with it. In addition, atmospheric CO2 enrichment typically
increases plant nutrient use efficiency and plant water use efficiency
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 226
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Biod – Turn: Wetlands (1/2)


Turn – sea level rise increases wetland area.

Titus 88 (James G., EPA, “Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Wetlands, p. 2,
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/GlobalWarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRCoastalWetlands.html)

17 Although most marshes could probably not keep pace with a substantial acceleration in sea level rise,
three possible exceptions are the marshes found in river deltas, tidal inlets, and on the bay sides of barrier
islands. River and tidal deltas receive much more sediment than wetlands elsewhere; hence they might be
able to keep pace with a more rapid rise in sea level. For example, the sediment washing down the
Mississippi river for a long time was more than enough to sustain the delta and enable it to advance into the
Gulf of Mexico, even though relative sea level rise there is approximately one centimeter per year, due to
subsidence (Gagliano, Meyer Arendt, and Wicker 1981). A global sea level rise of one centimeter per year
would double the rate of relative sea level rise there to two centimeters per year; thus, a given sediment
supply could not sustain as great an area of wetlands as before. It could, however, enable a substantial
fraction to keep pace with sea level rise. In response to sea level rise, barrier islands tend to migrate
landward as storms wash sand from the ocean side beach to the bay side marsh (Leatherman 1982).
This "overwash" process may enable barrier islands to keep pace with an accelerated rise in sea level.
However, it is also possible that accelerated sea level rise could cause these islands, to disintegrate. In coastal
Louisiana, where rapid subsidence has resulted in a relative sea level rise of one centimeter per year, barrier
islands have broken up. The Ship Island of the early twentieth century is now known as "Ship Shoal"
(Pendland, Suter, and Maslow 1986). Marshes often form in the flood (inland) tidal deltas (shoals) that
form in the inlets between barrier islands. Because these deltas are in equilibrium with sea level, a rise
in sea level would tend to raise them as well, with sediment being supplied primarily from the adjacent
islands. Moreover, if sea level rise causes barrier islands to breach, additional tidal deltas will form in
the new inlets, creating more marsh, at least temporarily. In the long run, however, the breakup of barrier
islands mould result in a loss of marsh. Larger waves would strike the wetlands that form in tidal deltas and
in estuaries behind barrier islands. Wave erosion of marshes could also be exacerbated if sea level rise
deepens the estuaries. This deepening would allow ocean waves to retain more energy and larger waves to
form in bays. Major landowners and the government of Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, consider this
possibility a serious threat and are taking action to prevent the breakup of Isle Demiere and others around
Terrebonne Bay (Terrebonne Parish 1984).

Loss of wetlands causes ecosystem destruction and species extinction


Eco-Pros 6 http://eco-pros.com/wetlandsloss.htm
DESTRUCTION FROM DEFORESTATION AND DEVELOPMENT Commercial deforestation and development in wetland areas
have resulted in significant declines in habitat, species populations, and critical ecosystem functions. This
destruction continues in unregulated regions of the world. TOXIC POLLUTION OF WETLANDS AND WILDLIFE Along with the destruction of wetlands, human
beings added pesticides and pollution, so over the years wildlife and bird populations greatly declined. DECLINE OF WATER SOURCES AND WETLANDS
FUNCTIONS Critical water changes occurred with alteration of wetlands; water tables dropped and wetland
vegetation water filtration was no longer available to purify the wastes of civilization. Loss of water from
various changes, led to inability of wetlands areas to maintain through normal dry periods. CHANGES TO
ECOSYSTEMS AND WEATHER In some areas, weather even changed. As the wetlands were converted for all the
various reasons, natural wetland ecosystems drastically changed or disappeared entirely. Many species were
left without life-support systems. DECLINE AND LOSS OF NATIVE AND MIGRATORY SPECIES Some resident native
mammals, nesting birds, amphibians, insects, reptiles and organisms which inhabited the wetlands have been
lost or seriously impacted.
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Biod – Turn: Wetlands (2/2)


Sea level rise creates new wetlands

Titus 88 (James G., EPA, “Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Wetlands, p. 2,
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/GlobalWarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRCoastalWetlands.html)

Offsetting this potential threat are two compensating factors. A rise in sea level would flood areas that are
now dry land, creating new wetlands. Moreover, wetlands can grow upward by accumulating sediment
and organic material. The potential of these two factors to prevent a major loss of wetlands in the next
century, however, may be limited. People who have developed the land just inland of today's wetlands may
be reluctant to abandon their houses, which new wetland creation would require. Although wetlands have
been able to keep pace with the rise in sea level of the last few thousand years, no one has demonstrated
that they could generally keep pace with an accelerated rise.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 228
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Plankton – Turn: Pollution Good


Pollutants from sulfur are critical to increasing photosynthesis in phytoplankton.

Science Daily 2005 (February 17, “Pollution Can Convert Airborne Iron Into Soluble Form Required for
Phytoplankton Growth”, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/02/050213130304.htm, Accessed 6/28/08)

So even though small storms are limited in the amount of dust they transport to the ocean and may not
cause large plankton blooms, small storms still produce enough soluble iron to consistently feed
phytoplankton and fertilize the ocean. This may be especially important for high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll
waters, where phytoplankton production is limited because of a lack of iron.
Natural sources of sulfur dioxide, such as volcanic emissions and ocean production, may also cause
iron mobilization and stimulate phytoplankton growth. Yet emissions from human-made sources
normally represent a larger portion of the trace gas. Also, human-made emission sites may be closer to
the storm's course and have a stronger influence on it than natural sulfur dioxide, Meskhidze said. This
research deepens scientists' understanding of the carbon cycle and climate change, he added.
"It appears that the recipe of adding pollution to mineral dust from East Asia may actually enhance
ocean productivity and, in so doing, draw down atmospheric carbon dioxide and reduce global
warming," Chameides said.
"Thus, China's current plans to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions, which will have far-reaching benefits
for the environment and health of the people of China, may have the unintended consequence of
exacerbating global warming," he added. "This is perhaps one more reason why we all need to get serious
about reducing our emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases."

Air sulfur pollution increases the activity of plankton.

Science Daily 2005 (February 17, “Pollution Can Convert Airborne Iron Into Soluble Form Required for
Phytoplankton Growth”, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/02/050213130304.htm, Accessed 6/28/08)

A surprising link may exist between ocean fertility and air pollution over land, according to Georgia
Institute of Technology research reported in the Feb. 16 issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research —
Atmospheres. The work provides new insight into the role that ocean fertility plays in the complex cycle
involving carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in global warming.
When dust storms pass over industrialized areas, they can pick up sulfur dioxide, an acidic trace gas
emitted from industrial facilities and power plants. As the dust storms move out over the ocean, the
sulfur dioxide they carry lowers the pH (a measure of acidity and alkalinity) level of dust and
transforms iron into a soluble form, said Nicholas Meskhidze, a postdoctoral fellow in Professor
Athanasios Nenes' group at Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and lead author of the
paper "Dust and Pollution: A Recipe for Enhanced Ocean Fertilization."
This conversion is important because dissolved iron is a necessary micronutrient for phytoplankton —
tiny aquatic plants that serve as food for fish and other marine organisms, and also reduce carbon
dioxide levels in Earth's atmosphere via photosynthesis. Phytoplankton carry out almost half of Earth's
photosynthesis even though they represent less than 1 percent of the planet's biomass.
In research funded by the National Science Foundation, Meskhidze began studying dust storms three years
ago under the guidance of William Chameides, Regents' Professor and Smithgall Chair at Georgia Tech's
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and co-author of the paper. "I knew that large storms from the
Gobi deserts in northern China and Mongolia could carry iron from the soil to remote regions of the
northern Pacific Ocean, facilitating photosynthesis and carbon-dioxide uptake," Meskhidze said. "But I
was puzzled because the iron in desert dust is primarily hematite, a mineral that is insoluble in high-pH
solutions such as seawater. So it's not readily available to the plankton."
Using data obtained in a flight over the study area, Meskhidze analyzed the chemistry of a dust storm that
originated in the Gobi desert and passed over Shanghai before moving onto the northern Pacific Ocean. His
discovery: When a high-concentration of sulfur dioxide mixed with the desert dust, it acidified the dust
to a pH below 2 — the level needed for mineral iron to convert into a dissolved form that would be
available to phytoplankton.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 229
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Plankton – Turn: Marine Mammals (1/2)


Loss of sea ice due to global warming is causing the death of whales.

Geoffrey Lean and Robert Mendick 2001 (August 1, The Independent, “Whale Population Devastated by
Warming Oceans, Scientists Say”, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/08/0801_wirewhales2.html,
Accessed 6/29/08)

Global warming has caused an unexpected collapse in the numbers of the world's most hunted whale,
scientists believe.
They think that a sharp contraction in sea ice in the Antarctic is the likeliest explanation behind new
findings, which suggest that the number of minke whales in the surrounding seas has fallen by half in
less than a decade.
The findings—which were the talk of the annual meeting in London last week of the International Whaling
Commission (IWC), the body that regulates whaling—has greatly strengthened the arguments of
conservationists who are resisting moves to lift a 15-year-old official ban on the hunt.
It also further underlines the importance of last week's agreement in Bonn on how to implement the Kyoto
Protocol, the international treaty to combat climate change.
Commercial whaling has been banned officially since 1986, but Japan and Norway each continue to kill
about 500 minke whales a year. Japan does so under the guise of "scientific research," allowed under the
WIC's treaty; Norway by exempting itself from the ban, which is also permitted under the agreement.
For years environmentalists have struggled to justify opposing the killing for conservation reasons. The last
attempt to count the number of minke whales in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, between 1985 and
1991, estimated that there were some 760,000 of them—far more than could be endangered by any
conceivable catch.
But the latest counts, during the 1990s, suggest that there are now only about 380,000 left. The minkes
in the Southern Ocean are a distinct species, far more abundant than their cousins in the northern
hemisphere.
Whales are notoriously difficult to count at sea, and no one is certain of the true figures. But the IWC's
Scientific Committee is reassessing its official estimate of their numbers as a result of the new evidence that
they are sharply declining.
No one knows why their numbers are crashing. But global warming is the main suspect because the krill
on which they feed live at the edge of the sea ice, and so their abundance depends on its circumference.
Until recently scientists thought the sea ice in the area had not shrunk much, because satellite measurements
have shown little change since they began in 1973. But Australian government research, based on more than
40,000 records from whaling ships since 1931, suggest that it dropped by a quarter between the mid-1950s
and early 1970s, when global warming was beginning to take hold.
As minke whales live for 60 years, it could have taken until now for the effects to become clear.
Last week Sidney Holt—who served on the Scientific Committee between 1960 and 1997, and is the
world's senior scientist in the field—said he thought global warming was "the likeliest hypothesis" for
the crash.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 230
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Plankton – Turn: Marine Mammals (1/2)


Climate change is killing whales

Veronique LaCapra 2007 (September 17, “Despite Gains, Gray Whale Population Still Not Recovered”,
http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2007-09/2007-09-17-voa26.cfm?CFID=6848366&CFTOKEN=10841436,
Accessed 6/29/08)

The new whale numbers may also help to explain more recent changes in the species' population dynamics.
Between 1999 and 2001, gray whales began starving to death. Scientists hypothesized that the population
might have recovered too well, that there were now more gray whales than the ocean could support.
But the new research suggests that the ocean once supported many more whales than exist today. Liz
Alter says that this finding supports an alternative explanation for why the whales are starving: large-
scale, ecosystem level changes are affecting the whales' feeding grounds in the Bering Sea. Other
research has suggested that climate change may have reduced the gray whale's food supply, by
warming deep arctic waters.

Blue whales are critical predators of plankton: A decrease in either one of them would
ensure a huge increase in plankton every day.

Enchanted Learning 2005 (May 11, “BLUE WHALES”,


http://www.enchantedlearning.com/subjects/whales/species/Bluewhale.shtml, Accessed 6/29/08)

Blue whales (like all baleen whales) are seasonal feeders and carnivores that filter feed tiny crustaceans
(krill, copepods, etc.), plankton, and small fish from the water. They are gulpers, filter feeders that
alternatively swim then gulp a mouthful of plankton or fish - they lunge into dense groups of small sea
organisms (krill or tiny fish) with an open mouth. 50 to 70 throat pleats allow the throat to expand a great
deal, forming a gular pouch. The water is then forced through the baleen plates hanging from the upper jaw.
The baleen catches the food, acting like a sieve.
The blue whale has about 320 pairs of black baleen plates with dark gray bristles in the blue whale's jaws.
They are about 39 inches long (1 m), 21 inches wide (53 cm), and weigh 200 pounds (90 kg). The tongue
weighs 4 tons (3.8 tonnes).
An average-sized blue whale will eat 2,000-9,000 pounds (900-4100 kg) of plankton each day during the
summer feeding season in cold, arctic waters ( about 120 days).

Minke whales have the same diet as blue whales, so a decrease in minke whales would also
have the same effect of increasing plankton.

Enchanted Learning 2004 (“MINKE WHALES”, August 31,


http://www.enchantedlearning.com/subjects/whales/species/Minke.shtml, Accessed 6/29/08)

Minke whales (like all baleen whales) are seasonal feeders and carnivores. They sieve through the
ocean water with their baleen. They filters out small polar plankton, krill, and small fish, even chasing
schools of sardines, anchovies, cod, herring, and capelin. They have the same diet as blue whales.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 231
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AT: Warming Impacts – A2: Plankton – No Impact


Populations of plankton are resilient to climate change: Empirically proven.

A’ndrea Elyse Messer 2006 (February 16, “Phytoplankton bounce back from abrupt climate change”,
http://news.bio-medicine.org/biology-news-3/Phytoplankton-bounce-back-from-abrupt-climate-change-8096-1/,
Accessed 6/29/08)

The majority of tiny marine plants weathered the abrupt climate changes that occurred in Earth's past
and bounced back, according to a Penn State geoscientist.
"Populations of plankton are pretty resilient," says Dr. Timothy J. Bralower, head and professor of
geoscience.
Bralower looked at cores of marine sediments related to thousands of years of deposition, to locate
populations of these plankton during three periods of abrupt climate change. These abrupt changes were
caused either by Oceanic Anoxic Events during the middle Jurassic to late Cretaceous when the oceans
became uniformly depleted of oxygen or by a warming event in the early Paleocene around 55 million years
ago.
Marine sediment cores contain calcareous plankton -- single-celled organisms with a coating or shell of
calcium carbonate -- as fossils. These tiny photosynthesizing plants float in the ocean and move with
the currents. They are around 10 micrometers in size, about half the width of a human hair. Anything bigger
than phytoplankton eat them. Eventually, their calcium carbonate shell falls to the ocean floor to become part
of the sediment.
The factors that were altered in the upper marine environment during the abrupt climate change
events included increases in temperature and changes in thermal structure, changes in salinity and
alkalinity, and changes in nutrient patterns and trace elements.
"In every case, changes in surface habitats resulted in transient plankton communities," Bralower told
attendees at the 2006 annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
"Although we have a poor understanding of ancient plankton ecology, it appears that extinctions were
selective and targeted more specialized and often deeper-dwelling species."
For example, about 55 million years ago there was a warming event that geologists call the Paleocene/Eocene
thermal maximum. During that time, there were mass extinctions of organisms living on the ocean floor, but
surface phytoplankton populations dipped and for the most part came back. During this event one genus of
phytoplankton - Fasciculithus -- which had about five species went extinct.
"We do not have anything like Fasciculitus in the oceans today," says Bralower. "But, these organisms were
probably highly specialized and existed in a very narrow ecological niche. The other thing is that, as soon as
some group disappears, another species comes in to occupy that niche." About 120 million years ago, during
an episode of oxygen depletion another genus inhabiting surface waters -- Nannococus -- which also had
about five species, went extinct. Otherwise only a few species here and there were unable to survive these
abrupt changes. However, on the ocean floor during these same times, mass extinctions occurred.
Other extinctions, such as that at the Cetaceous Tertiary boundary (K/T) that caused the demise of the
dinosaurs, are thought to be caused by other than abrupt climate changes. The K/T event had mass
extinctions on land and in the upper portions of the oceans, but not on the ocean floors.
During the abrupt climate changes that Bralower investigated, the temperature of the oceans changed about
11 degrees Fahrenheit over the course of 1,000 years.
"This rate of change in ocean temperature is probably slower than what is happening today in the oceans,"
the Penn State researcher adds. "We are not yet seeing the same effect in today's phytoplankton."
Besides being a major food source, phytoplankton are also important in the balance of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere as opposed to the carbon that is sequestered in the ocean sediment.
Photosynthesizing organisms use carbon dioxide to create energy and so remove carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere. Some of the carbon that phytoplankton take out of the air as carbon dioxide is used to make their
calcium carbonate coatings. Because these coatings eventually make it into the sediment, they do not
immediately return to the atmosphere. It is not until chalk or limestone beds are exposed to the elements that
weathering returns the carbon to the atmosphere.
"Today, we are sort of in the middle of a mass experiment," says Bralower. "With the oceans warming,
we do not really know what the end result will be, but we can look to the fossil record to see how they
were affected in the past. It appears that abrupt climate change affects plankton with selectivity and
most of the organisms bounce right back after the change."
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 232
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A2: Warming Impacts – A2: Coral – Turn: Calcification


Global warming results in an increase in coral reefs.

EurekAlert 2004 (December 9, “Global warming good for coral reefs: research”,
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2004-12/uons-gwg120904.php, Accessed 6/30/08)
Coral reefs around the world could expand in size by up to a third in response to increased ocean
warming and the greenhouse effect, according to Australian scientists.
"Our analysis suggests that ocean warming will foster considerably faster future rates of coral reef
growth that will eventually exceed pre-industrial rates by as much as 35 per cent by 2100," says Dr Ben
McNeil, an oceanographer from the University of News South Wales.
"Our finding stands in stark contrast to previous predictions that coral reef growth will suffer large,
potentially catastrophic, decreases in the future," says McNeil, who led and published the research in the
journal Geophysical Research Letters, with colleagues Dr Richard Matear of the Commonwealth Scientific
and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and Dr David Barnes from the Australian Institute of Marine
Science, Townsville.
Previous research has predicted a decline of between 20 and 60 percent in the size of coral reefs by 2100
relative to pre-industrial levels due to increasing CO2 levels in ocean surface waters. The new research
suggests that present coral reef calcification rates are not in decline and are equivalent to late 19th century
levels.
Coral reefs are built from calcium carbonate when red algae cement together a framework of coral skeletons
and sediments. Seawater surface temperatures and the quantity of carbonate in seawater dictate their growth
rate.
The Australian scientists have observed the calcification-temperature relationship at significant reef-building
colonies around the world in the Indo-Pacific and at massive Porites reef colonies in Australia, Hawaii,
Thailand, the Persian Gulf and New Ireland.
The predicted increase in the rate of coral reef calcification is most likely due to an enhancement in
coral metabolism and/or increases in photosynthetic rates of red algae, according to the scientists. They
used projections of ocean warming and CO2 concentration from a CSIRO climate model that accounts for
atmosphere-ice and ocean carbon cycles.
"Our results show that increases in coral reef calcification associated with ocean warming outweigh
decreases associated with increased atmospheric CO2", says CSIRO's Dr Richard Matear. "While initially
showing a decrease in calcification up to 1964, ocean warming outweighs the CO2 effect and stimulates
recovery of coral reef calcification. Our results represent an average over the entire coral reef community
and it will be important to undertake more specific regional analysis of models to better understand future
changes in regions such as Australia's Great Barrier Reef."

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