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The end of the Putin consensus

The end of the Putin consensus

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Putin’s return: why Europe should prepare for a weaker Putin

On Sunday 4th March Russians will chose their next president. Although Vladimir Putin is certain to win, it will be a hollow victory and his next presidency will be weaker than before. After the ‘phantom presidency’ of Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin will find himself president of a changed Russia. Central authority is weaker, the economy is faltering and the restless middle classes are confident enough to protest against the government.

'The end of the Putin consensus' by Ben Judah and Andrew Wilson argues that:

The financial crisis has exposed Russia’s chronic governance crisis and dashed its dreams of being a true rising economic power. Russia suffered the G20’s deepest recession in 2009. See ECFR’s report ‘Dealing with a post-BRIC Russia’.

Recent protests show that Russia is restless but not yet revolutionary. The protest movement is a minority, but is drawn from Russia’s most dynamic demographic groups – the Moscow based, the middle class, the young and the cultural elite.

Electoral fraud is often unsophisticated and discrepancies are easy to expose thanks to the booming blogosphere. For instance exit polls in Moscow gave United Russia 32% of the vote in recent parliamentary elections, but the final count gave it 46.5%.

Despite his promises of reform, Putin will be more dependent on oligarch allies and prone to economic populism.
With a re-elected President Putin under increasing pressure at home the European Union should expect Russia to be more withdrawn and less co-operative in foreign policy, in areas from the Middle East to frozen conflicts. Moscow’s obstructive Syria policy has been presented domestically as ‘standing up to the West’.

The authors argue the EU should:

Loudly defend human rights, but refrain from loud support for the opposition movement (unlike some Americans who have embraced it), to avoid charges of the protesters being Western stooges.

Pass a pan-European ‘Magnitsky List’ – a blacklist that imposes visa bans and asset freezes on those connected to the death of the lawyer Sergei Magnitsky. This would indicate the EU’s red lines on egregious human rights violations.

Launch a new anti-corruption dialogue with Russia that includes opposition leaders and government officials. The Russian elite currently uses the EU as a safe haven for its money, and the opposition is calling for the EU to change laws to make it harder for dirty money to find a safe berth in Europe.
Putin’s return: why Europe should prepare for a weaker Putin

On Sunday 4th March Russians will chose their next president. Although Vladimir Putin is certain to win, it will be a hollow victory and his next presidency will be weaker than before. After the ‘phantom presidency’ of Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin will find himself president of a changed Russia. Central authority is weaker, the economy is faltering and the restless middle classes are confident enough to protest against the government.

'The end of the Putin consensus' by Ben Judah and Andrew Wilson argues that:

The financial crisis has exposed Russia’s chronic governance crisis and dashed its dreams of being a true rising economic power. Russia suffered the G20’s deepest recession in 2009. See ECFR’s report ‘Dealing with a post-BRIC Russia’.

Recent protests show that Russia is restless but not yet revolutionary. The protest movement is a minority, but is drawn from Russia’s most dynamic demographic groups – the Moscow based, the middle class, the young and the cultural elite.

Electoral fraud is often unsophisticated and discrepancies are easy to expose thanks to the booming blogosphere. For instance exit polls in Moscow gave United Russia 32% of the vote in recent parliamentary elections, but the final count gave it 46.5%.

Despite his promises of reform, Putin will be more dependent on oligarch allies and prone to economic populism.
With a re-elected President Putin under increasing pressure at home the European Union should expect Russia to be more withdrawn and less co-operative in foreign policy, in areas from the Middle East to frozen conflicts. Moscow’s obstructive Syria policy has been presented domestically as ‘standing up to the West’.

The authors argue the EU should:

Loudly defend human rights, but refrain from loud support for the opposition movement (unlike some Americans who have embraced it), to avoid charges of the protesters being Western stooges.

Pass a pan-European ‘Magnitsky List’ – a blacklist that imposes visa bans and asset freezes on those connected to the death of the lawyer Sergei Magnitsky. This would indicate the EU’s red lines on egregious human rights violations.

Launch a new anti-corruption dialogue with Russia that includes opposition leaders and government officials. The Russian elite currently uses the EU as a safe haven for its money, and the opposition is calling for the EU to change laws to make it harder for dirty money to find a safe berth in Europe.

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Published by: ECFR, European Council on Foreign Relations on May 09, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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\fa obuaoai| g} gi ecm| c mbcng|gbi be obuaoai|} |fc| fcua}qpdal c| |fa }coa |goa `q| ib| wa| mbcna}mal) \fapa g} c}gidna bpdcig}c|gbi mboog||aa ebp |fa pcnnga} cil c iat „Nacdqa be Ub|ap}‟. `q| ib bia zcp|w bp nbid/|apo znci) \fg}mbcng|gbi ocw `a bpdcig}gid |fa pcnnga}. `q| |faw cpa tbbgidpc|fap |fci naclgid |fa zpb|a}|ap}. ob}| be tfbo cpa ochgidc obpcn ib| c zcp|w zbng|gmcn }|cima) \fa zpb|a}|} fcua `aaila}gdial |b czzacn |b |fa tgla}| cqlgaima zb}}g`na tg|fbingia ub|gid ebp }zachap} cil c pbmh/mbimap| c|ob}zfapa)\faw cpa cn}b fboa/dpbti; qingha |fa „mbnbqpal paubnq|gbi}‟bp |fa Cpc` Ctchaigid. |fa Pq}}gci pcnnga} cpa ib|c`na ebp|fagp mbozna|a ncmh be gi|apa}| gi |fa bq|}gla tbpnl) \fapacpa ib mpga} ebp fanz. bp cidap c| ebpagdi zbtap}. bp la}gpa |b kbgi |fa AQ bp aoqnc|a |fa Qig|al ]|c|a})\fa zpb|a}| obuaoai| g} ocla qz be iat cil bnl ecma}.lg}}ai|gid oao`ap} be ebpoap Hpaongi/mbi|pbnnal zcp|ga}.oalgc ang|a}. fgz}|ap cm|gug}|} cil pclgmcn}) Iat zbng|gmcnecma} gimnqla |fa |fgp|w/}boa|fgid ci|g/mbppqz|gbi cm|gug}| Cnavaw Icucniw cil |fa aiugpbioai|cng}| Audaigc Mfgpghbuc. tfb}a }|cp }|c|q} cil „fbia}|‟ czzacpcima} fcua fanzal |faobuaoai| c||pcm| |fa czbng|gmcn) Icucniw cn}b engp|} tg|fic|gbicng}o) Bnl uglab} }fbt fgo cpdqgid ebp ogdpci|} |b `a avzannal epbo Pq}}gc ngha c lai|g}| paobua} |aa|f bp ebpMcqmc}gci |appbpg}|} |b `a }fb| ngha bia }tc|} mbmhpbcmfa})@q| g| g} ib| fg} ic|gbicng}o |fc| ocha} fgo zbzqncp)Gpbigmcnnw. fg} ocgi czzacn nga} gi fg} zpbog}a |fc| Pq}}gcmci `amboa |fa oblapi. laobmpc|gm mbqi|pw |fc| Oalualau zpbog}al) Cnbid}gla Icucniw cpa 377:} laobmpc|} }qmf c} @bpg}Iao|}bu. Dcppw Hc}zcpbu cil Unclgogp Pw{fhbu. tfbfcua fanzal |b mpac|a ci bpdcig}c|gbicn }|pqm|qpa `q| cpaib| c} zbzqncp) OZ} epbo |fa ebpoapnw |gdf|nw Hpaongi/mbi|pbnnal zcp|w Kq}| Pq}}gc. gimnqlgid |fa tann/mbiiam|alGnwc Zbibocpau. fcua dguai |fa obuaoai| |fa mpalg`gng|w be fcugid ebpoap padgoa ebpma} bi}gla) \fa zpb|a}|}fcua cn}b `aai epbi|al `w oao`ap} be |fa mqn|qpcn ang|a}qmf c} |fa \U }|cp Nabigl Zcpewbibu cil |fa tpg|ap@bpg} Chqigi. tfb fcua dguai |fa obuaoai| g|} }zcphnacil „|pq}|tbp|fgia}}‟ |b Pq}}gci} laaznw lg}|pq}|eqn be zbng|gmgci} cil paubnq|gbicpga}) \fa obuaoai|‗} pcnnga}fcua `aai zpbob|al ib| `w |fa zbng|gmgci} `q| `w wbqid ang|aOb}mbt fgz}|ap Ecma`bbh cm|gug}|} cil |fa alg|bp be dncobqpocdc{gia Ceg}fc. Gnwc Hpc}gn}fmfgh. cil |fa alg|bp be bingia\U }|c|gbi Lb{fl. Oghfcgn [wdcp) Pazpa}ai|c|gua be c wbqid.|pailw cil c}zgpc|gbicn daiapc|gbi be Oq}mbug|a}. |faw fcuadpc``al |fa c||ai|gbi be |fa mczg|cn‗} wbq|f) Ebp |fao. |faobuaoai| g} c`bq| ochgid Pq}}gc oblapi. znqpcng}|gm cil„nguac`na‟)\fa obuaoai| cn}b gimnqla} iatnw zpbogiai| pclgmcniab/Mbooqig}| nae|g}|} ngha ]apdaw Qlcn|}bu cil „iat ic|gbicng}|}‟ ngha Unclgogp \bp cil Hbi}|ci|gi Hpwnbu. tfgmf fc} dguai g| „}|paa| mpal‟) \fa iat ic|gbicng}|} }aa|fa obuaoai| c} c tcw |b }|bz Zq|gi‗} zbngmga} be „enbblgid|fa mbqi|pw tg|f googdpci|}‟ cil gi|adpc|gid tg|f Oq}ngo}|c|a} gi Mai|pcn C}gc cil |fa Mcqmc}q}) Icucniw }|pcllna} `b|f ng`apcn cil ic|gbicng}| }|pcil}; fa mcnn} ebp Pq}}gc |b„}|bz eaalgid |fa Mcqmc}q}‟ cil |b gi|pblqma c ug}c padgoaebp Oq}ngo ebpoap ]buga| }|c|a})\fa zpb|a}| obuaoai| g} ib| c dbuapioai| gi tcg|gid. ibp g}g| mqppai|nw mczc`na be }ag{gid zbtap) \fapa g} ib qig|al nbid/|apo znci. qig|al zbngmw zpbdpcooa bp ambibogm }|pc|adw)\fg} fc} nal oqmf be |fa Ob}mbt ang|a |b }aa |fa zpb|a}|ap}c} ngdf|tagdf|) „Ta cpa pacm|gid. }aagid fbt |fgid} dbcil tbphgid bq| fbt |b pa}zbil |b |fao.‟ }cw} Mfgpghbuc)Icucniw g} c fapb ebp }boa tg|fgi |fa obuaoai| `q| fc}ib| aoapdal c} c lbogici| naclap) Gi |apo} be bpdcig}c|gbicil gienqaima. |fa mai|pa be dpcug|w nga} obpa tg|f |fa oalgcang|a} cil wbqid Ecma`bbh cm|gug}|} tfb laznbpa |fa c||aoz||b „fgkcmh‟ |fa obuaoai| `w |fa qizbzqncp bnl laobmpc|}cil |fa „lg}pqz|gua pbna‟ be |fa lg}}ai|gid Kq}| Pq}}gc OZ})
6
]apdag @ancibu}hw. Oghfcgn Log|pgau. ]ua|ncic Og}ghfgic cil \c|wcic Boanmfqh.„]bmgb/Ambibogm Mfcida cil Zbng|gmcn \pci}ebpoc|gbi gi Pq}}gc‟. Mai|ap ebp ]|pc|adgmPa}acpmf. 4 Ibuao`ap 0:33. cucgnc`na c| f||z;""m}g})bpd"na}"c||cmfoai|}"3333:4RM]PRPazbp|RIbuao`apR0:33)zle)
7
]|c|g}|gm} epbo |fa Pq}}gci Ealapcn Ogdpc|gbi @qpacq. cucgnc`na c| f||z;""ttt)eo})dbu)pq"c`bq|"}|c|g}|gm}"lc|c")

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