Here‟s my list of conceptual biases, named and sometimes explained, in Chapter 16,“Cognitive biases & Availability Cascades.” When I tried two (Texas Shapshooter &
Availability Cascade) at lunch today, a group of very smart people who argue aboutreligion, politics, MACs & PCs, Androids & iPhones, anti-trust enforcement stoppedside conversations long enough to listen. Thanks, Seth Mnookin and Enlightenmentadvocates for empiricism!1.
A brain that can‟t feel can‟t decide. This suggests that limbic activity in
integral to our decision-
making, doesn‟t it?
Pattern recognition produces more false positives than false negatives.Ancestors who were complacent with rustles (of snakes) or flickers (ofpredators) ceased to contribute to the evolutionary cascade which led to us.3.
Clustering illusion results because we are driven to connect the dots evenwhen the dots are random. Lorraine found a high number of breast cancercases
in Long Island. Believing the dots weren‟t random, when they were,
gave a sense of more control over fate/destiny/therapeutic outcomes thanwe, in fact, have.4.
Expectation bias and selection bias (when SafeMinds members set out towrite the academic paper to legitimize the hypothesis they believed wastrue) will produce errors of manipulation of data or misinterpretation ofdata.5.
Anchoring effect describes the preference to give past experiences toomuch weight when making decisions about the future.6.
When we decide how much more energy and attention to invest based on our
past investments while discounting evidence, this is “irrational escalation,”
and my own wish to hold onto losing stocks so they can return my investmentis an excellent example.7.
Sharpshooter‟s Fallacy allows us to craft a hypothesis to support
our data, making it untestable. The metaphor is shooting holes in the side of
a barn, then painting the targets‟ bulls
-eyes where the hole is.8.
At the moment when I must be most self-disciplined to see how I was wrong,
I want so much to be right that “confirmation bias” kicks in and I will put all
the stress on data which shows I might be right.