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Scenarios
for the
Future
of
Technology
and
International Development
 
This report was produced byThe Rockefeller Foundationand Global Business Network.May 2010
 
Contents
Letter from Judith Rodin
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4
Letter from Peter Schwartz
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6
Introduction
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8
 WHY SCENARIOS?
......................................................
9
 WHY TECHNOLOGY?
...................................................
10
THE FOCAL QUESTION
.................................................
11
ENGAGING YOUR IMAGINATION
......................................
11
The Scenario Framework
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13
CHOOSING THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
...........................
14
GLOBAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT
....................
15
 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
.................................................
15
THE SCENARIO NARRATIVES
.........................................
17
Lock Step
.........................................................
18
Clever Together 
..................................................
26
Hack Attack
......................................................
34
Smart Scramble
..................................................
42
Concluding Thoughts
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
49
 Appendix
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
51
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