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Curve Fitting Approximation in Internet Traffic Distribution in Computer Network in Two Market Environment

# Curve Fitting Approximation in Internet Traffic Distribution in Computer Network in Two Market Environment

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The Internet traffic sharing problem has been studied by many researchers using a Markov chain model. The market situations are also responsible for determining the traffic share. The market prime location has better chance to capture the users proportion. Using Markov chain model one can established mathematical relationship among the system parameters and variables. If the relationship is complicated than it is difficult to predict about the output variable when input variables are known. This paper presents least square curve fitting approach to simplify and present the complicated relationship into a simple linear relationship. This methodology is in use for the case of
traffic sharing under Markov chain model with two operators and two market environments. The coefficient of determination is used as a tool to judge the accuracy of line fitting between two prime system variables. Graphical study is performed to support the findings.
The Internet traffic sharing problem has been studied by many researchers using a Markov chain model. The market situations are also responsible for determining the traffic share. The market prime location has better chance to capture the users proportion. Using Markov chain model one can established mathematical relationship among the system parameters and variables. If the relationship is complicated than it is difficult to predict about the output variable when input variables are known. This paper presents least square curve fitting approach to simplify and present the complicated relationship into a simple linear relationship. This methodology is in use for the case of
traffic sharing under Markov chain model with two operators and two market environments. The coefficient of determination is used as a tool to judge the accuracy of line fitting between two prime system variables. Graphical study is performed to support the findings.

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(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 10, No. 4, 2012
Curve Fitting Approximation in Internet TrafficDistribution in Computer Network in Two MarketEnvironment
Diwakar Shukla
Deptt. of Maths and StatisticsDr. H.S. Gour Central UniversitySagar, M.P., India.
diwakarshukla@rediffmail.com

Kapil Verma
Deptt. of Computer ScienceM.P.Bhoj (Open) University,Bhopal, M.P., India.B.T. Institute of Research andTechnology, Seronja, Sagar, M.P.
Kapil_mca100@rediffmail.com
Deptt. of Computer ScienceM.P.Bhoj (Open) University,
Bhopal, M.P,
India

Abstract
—

The Internet traffic sharing problem has been studiedby many researchers using a Markov chain model. The marketsituations are also responsible for determining the traffic share.The market prime location has better chance to capture the usersproportion. Using Markov chain model one can establishedmathematical relationship among the system parameters andvariables. If the relationship is complicated than it is difficult topredict about the output variable when input variables areknown. This paper presents least square curve fitting approachto simplify and present the complicated relationship into a simplelinear relationship. This methodology is in use for the case of traffic sharing under Markov chain model with two operatorsand two market environments. The coefficient of determination isused as a tool to judge the accuracy of line fitting between twoprime system variables. Graphical study is performed to supportthe findings.
Keywords- User behavior, Transition Probability Matrix (TPM), Markov Chain Model (MCM), Coefficient of Determination (COD),Confidence Interval.
I.

INTRODUCTION
The traffic pattern depends upon the market situation in thecity and an internet café in the prime place generates highamount of users. If the same café is in remote area, thecustomer arrival pattern shifts toward lower side. We comeacross this of situation by the contribution of Naldi (2002) andShukla
et al.
(2011). Most of authors quoted above haveshown the application of Markov chain model in defining theinterrelationship between traffic sharing and blocking probability. Their derived expressions are in polynomial order.It is hard to specify the actual relationship in simple manner.Shukla, Verma and Gangele (2012) discussed a methodologyrelated to curve fitting with the same idea for the contributionsof Shukla
et al.
(2011 a). The earlier expressions have beenused to generate model based data and least square curvefitting approach is applied.
II. A REVIEW
The stochastic process has been used by many scientists andresearchers for the purpose of statistical modeling whosedetailed description is in Medhi (1991, 1992). Chen and Mark (1993) discussed the fast packet switch shared concentrationand output queueing for a busy channel. Humbali and Ramani(2002) evaluated multicast switch with a variety of traffic patterns. Newby and Dagg (2002) have a useful contributionon the optical inspection and maintenance for stochasticallydeteriorating system. Dorea
et al.
(2004) used Markov chainfor the modelling of a system and derived some usefulapproximations. Yeian and Lygeres (2005) presented a work on stabilization of class of stochastic different equations withMarkovian switching. Shukla
et al.
(2007 a) advocated for model based study for space division switches in computer network. Francini and Chiussi (2002) discussed someinteresting features for QoS guarantees to the unicast andmulticast flow in multistage packet switch. On the reliabilityanalysis of network a useful contribution is by Agarwal andLakhwinder (2008) whereas Paxson (2004) introduced someof their critical experiences while measuring the internettraffic. Shukla
et al.
(2009 a, b and c) presented differentdimensions of internet traffic sharing in the light of share lossanalysis and comparison of method for internet trafficsharing. Shukla
et al.
(2009) have given rest state analysis ininternet traffic distribution in multi-operator environment.Shukla and Thakur (2009) discussed modeling of behavior of cyber criminals when two internet operators are in market.Shukla
et al.
(2009) studied and discussed Markov chainmodel for the analysis of round robin scheduling and derivedstate probability analysis of internet traffic sharing. Shukla
et

(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 10, No. 4, 2012
al
. (2010 a, b. c, d, e and f) have given some Markov Chainmodel applications in view to disconnectivity factor, multimarketing and crime based analysis. Shukla
et al
. (2010) presented index based internet traffic analysis of users by aMarkov chain model. Shukla
et al
. (2010 a, b, c and d)discussed cyber crime analysis for multidimensional effect incomputer network and internet traffic sharing. Shukla
et al.
(2010) presented Iso-Share analysis of internet trafficsharing in presence of favoured disconnectivity. Shukla
et al
.(2011 a, b, c, d, e , f and g) discussed the elasticity propertyand its impact on parameters of internet traffic sharing in presence blocking probability of computer network speciallywhen two operators are in business competitions with eachother in a market. Shukla, Tiwari and Thakur (2011) presented analysis of internet traffic distribution for user  behavior based probability in multi-market environment.Shukla
et al.
(2011) presented analysis of user web browsingfor iso-browser share probability. Shukla
et al.
(2012) studiedleast square curve fitting for Iso-failure in web browsingusing Markov chain model. Shukla, Verma and GangelePresented least square based curve fitting in internet accesstraffic sharing in two operator environment. Shukla, Vermaand Gangele studied least square curve fitting applicationunder rest state environment in internet traffic sharing incomputer network.
III. MARKOV CHAIN MODEL
[As per Shukla et al.(2011)]

Let
{X
(n)
, n
0} be a Markov chain model. As per Fig 3.1, let
O1 , O2 , O3
and
O4
be operators (ISP) in the two competitiveMarket-I (M1) and Market-II (M2). User chooses a marketfirst, then enters into a cyber-café situated there in, wherecomputer terminals of different operators are available toaccess the Internet. Operators are grouped as
Ou(u=1,3)
and
Ov(v=2,4)
for market-I and market-II.State O1: First operator in market-I,State O2: Second operator in market-I,State O3: Third operator in market-II,State O4: Fourth operator in market-II,State Z1: Success (link) in market-I(M1)State Z2: Success (link) in market- II (M2)State A : Abandon the attempt process.The X(n)stands for the state of random variable X at nth attempt of connectivity
(n > 0)
made by the user. Someunderlying assumptions of the Markov chain model are:(a) A User (or Customer or CU) first select the Market-I with probability q and Market-II with probability
(1-q)
, (see Fig3.1)(b) After choosing a market, User in the cyber-café (shop),chooses the first operator
Ou
with probability
p
or to
Ov
with
(1-p)
.(c) Blocking probability experienced by the operator
Ou
are
L1& L3
and by
Ov
are
L2& L4
(d) The connectivity attempts by user between operators areon call-by-call basis, if the call for
Ou
is blocked in k thattempt (
k >O)
then in
(k + 1)th
attempt user shifts to
Ov
. If this also fails, user switches to
Ou
in
(k+2)th
.(e) Whenever call connects through either of operators
Ou
or
Ov
,we say system reaches to the state of success in
n
attempts.(f) User can terminate the attempt process which is marked assystem to the abandon state Z at nth attempts with probability p
A
(either
Ou
or from
Ov
).
11
UsersMarket-I
(1-p)(1-L
4
) pL
1
(1-L
3
)qL
2

Z
1

O
1
O
2

L
1
p
A
L
2
p
A
L
3
p
A
L
4
p
A
L
3
L
4
(1-q) p(1-L
1
)(1-L
2
)(1-p)
O
3
O
4
Market - II
Z
2

M
2
M
1

FIGURE 3.1 :
Transition Diagram of model.

(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 10, No. 4, 2012
Fig.3.1 Explains the transition mechanism with transition probability matrix in (3.1)
StatesX
(n)

O
1
O
2
O
3
O
4
Z
1
Z
2
A M
1
M
2
O
1
0 L
1
(1-p
A
) 0 0 1- L
1

0 L
1
P
A
0 0O
2
L
2
(1-p
A
) 0 0 0 1- L
2
0 L
2
p
A
0 0O
3
0 0 0 L
3
(1-p
A
) 0 1- L
3

L
3

p
A

0 0O
4
0 0 L
4
(1- P
A

) 0 0 1-L
4

L
4
P
A

0 0X
(n-1)
Z
1
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0Z
2
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0A 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0M
1
p 1-p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0M
2
0 0 p 1-p 0 0 0 0 0
IV. SOME USEFUL RESULTS FOR nth CONNECTIVITY ATTEMPTS
[
Shukla et al. (2011)
]
Theorem 4.1:
The nthstep transitions probability for
O2
inMarket -1 is:
1
()-22
[ ] (1-)(1-)()
nn MAA
PXOqpppEven
=
=

1
()-12
[ ] (1-)(1-)()
nn MA
pXOqppOd
= =

Theorem 4.2:
The nthstep transitions probability for
O3
inMarket-II is:
( )
2
()-23 4
[ ] (1-) (1-) 1-(1-) ()
nn MAA
PXOqpLppEven
= =

2
()-13
[ ] (1-) (1-) ()
nn MA
pXOqppOd
= =

Theorem 4.3:
The nthstep transitions probability for
O4
inMarket-II is:
( )
2
()-24 3
[ ] (1-) 1-(1-)()
nn MAA
PXOqpLppEven
= =

()-142
[ ] (1-) (1-)(1-)()
nn MA
PXOqppOd
= =

V. LIMITING BEHAVIOUR
Let L
1
be traffic share by the first operator and L
2
be trafficshare by the second operator. Using Markov chain model & Naldi (2002), Shukla
et al.
(2007) we can obtain theexpression of traffic sharing as:
1
112212
(1)[(1)(1)]...(5.1)1(1)
A M  A
Lq pppLp LLp
= +

1
221212
(1)[(1)(1)]...(5.2)1(1)
A M  A
Lq pppLp LLp
= +

2
132212
(1)(1)[(1)(1)]...(5.3)1(1)
A M  A
Lq pppLp LLp
= +

2
241212
(1)(1)[(1)(1)]...(5.4)1(1)
A M  A
Lq pppLp LLp
= +

VI. LEAST SQUARE FITTING OF STRAIGHT LINE
We have to approximate the relationship between parameter
1
1M
P
and p through a straight line
1
11
.
M
PabL
= +
where aand b are constants to be obtained by the method of leastsquare. For the i
th
observation p
i
we write the relationship as
1
11
.
i
i M
PabL
= +
(i=1, 2, 3,…, n). The normal equations are

11
11112111111
....(6.1).
ii
nn Miiinn Miiiii
PnabLPLaLbL
= == =
= += +
By solving the normal equations (5.1), the least squareestimates of a and b are
,:
ab

11
111111221111
()().....(6.2)()
ii
nn MiMiiinniiii
nPLPLbnLL
= == =
=

1
1111
1...(6.3)
i
nn Miii
aPbLn
= =
=
Where n is the number of observations in sample of size n,and resultant straight line is