The Future Of Measurement

What does 2009 hold?

The Future of Measurement

I. We will substantially advanceour understanding of individuals and the meaningfulconnections they have.

“Ithinkmanyofthesenewmetricsinsocialmediawillallowustogetaglimpseofsomeofthethingsthataremostinteres8nginpersonalityresearchbuthavebeengenerallyneglectedbecausetheyarehardtomeasureusingconven8onalmethods.Inpar8cular,Iamlookingforwardtowhatthenewmeasureswilltellusaboutiden8ty.Itseemsthatsomuchsocialmediaisconcernedwiththeideaofdiscoveringwhoweareandwithconveyingthatideatoothers.”‐SamGosling,UniversityofTexasatAus8n,AuthorofSnoop:WhatYourStuffSaysAboutYou“Ithinkthefutureofweb‐basedmeasurementisgoingtorequireincreasinglydeepanaly8calinsightsonuserbehaviorandtherela8onshipstheyhavewitheachother…It'sverydifficulttodaytoanalyze[complexweb‐clicksequences]withinadatabasedowntoaper‐userper‐sessionlevelofflarge‐scaledata…Graphanaly8csisalsoveryhardtodoforlarge‐scale,granulardata...butthedeepinsightsgainedonhowpeopleareconnectedisverypowerful.”‐ShawnKung,AsterData“Onedirec8oninthefutureofmeasurementistheQuan8fiedSelf”movementinwhichpeopleapplyoneormorebiologicalsensorstothemselvesandtracktheresults…gatheringthisdatatodataminetheirownbehaviorwiththegoalofimprovinghealth,efficiency,behaviormodifica8on,orself‐absorp8on.”‐MarcSmith,TelligentSystems“Mykeypredic8onrelatedtothisisthatcompanies&organiza8onsaregoingtohavetolearntobuildrela8onshipsandmanagetheirsocialinterac8onsacrossmul8plegroups(employees,customers,partners)andmul8pleplaormsTodothistheywillneedtobeZerunderstandthedatathatispresentaswellaswhatneedstobepresentinordertobuildrela8onships(strengthof8es)thataremeaningfultothemfromanROIstandpointandtothedifferentgroups.”‐MilesSims,SmallWorldLabs“It'snotenoughtostudyconnec8vity.Youhavetolookatmessagecontentandpropaga8ontounderstandwhomanindividualisreallylisteningtoandwhomheorsheismeaningfullyconnectedwith.”‐SethGrimes,AltaPlana

II. We will identify methods totap what people are *really*thinking, feeling, and paying attention to, meanwhile gaining insight on what a measurement is truly capturing.

“Whenwereadablogorwatchavideo,mostcurrentmeasurementtoolsassumethatwearepayingaZen8ontothecontentofthemessageor,perhaps,theemo8onaltoneofthemessage.Contentismeasuredbylookingatlowfrequencynounsandregularverbs.Emo8onisassumedbytheuseofemo8on‐8ngedwords…Themajorityofourwordsarepartofthetrash.Theysignalhowpeoplearethinking,howtheyareorganizingtheirworlds,theirrela8onshipswithotherpeopleandtheirwri8ngtopics…Overthenextfewyears,anincreasingnumberofpeoplewillbeexploringthenonobviouspartsoflanguagetogetabeZersenseofthesocialandpsychologicalfeaturesoftheauthor,themessage,anditsimpact.Thiswillextendbeyondthesejunkwordsandwilllikelyincludepunctua8on,emo8cons,orothertextshortcuts.Thiswayofthinkingwillberelevantforblogs,chat,twiZer,andtextmessaging.Itshouldalsoberelevantforspokenmediaaswell.”‐JamesPennebaker,UniversityofTexasatAus8n,AuthorofOpeningUp:TheHealingPowerofExpressingEmo8ons“I'mverymuchintoappraisal(framework)rightnow,whichis,inalargepart,aboutcontentwords.However,thereisalwaysadisconnectbetweentheexpressionofprivatestateandtheprivatestateitself.Forexample,Imaysay'Ilikethat'simplytoavoidasocialconflict.LookingatthetypesofpaZernsinfunc8onwords(whichhavebeenusedinanumberofclassifiersforthingslikegenderandage)mayalsobeawaytofigureoutthe'truth'oftheexpression.WedidsomeworkontheBLEWSprojectlookingat'emo8onalcharge'.Thegoalbeingtofigureoutthelevelofemo8onatthe8meofwri8ng.Thisisanotheraggregatesignalusefulinsiingthecontentdata.”MaZhewHurst,MicrosoLiveLabs

SOCIAL ABACUS, DECEMBER 23, 2008



KATE G. NIEDERHOFFER

NealBurns,UniversityofTexas,Aus8nCenterforBrandResearchWalterCarl,ChatThreads,MauryGiles,GSD&MIdeaCitySamGosling,UniversityofTexas,Aus8n:DepartmentofPsychologySethGrimes,AltaPlanaMaZhewHurst,MicrosoLiveLabsPaulJanowitz,Sen8entServicesShawnKung,AsterDataRoddyLindsay,FacebookJamiePennebaker,UniversityofTexas,Aus8nDepartmentofPsychologyMarthaRussell,MediaXatStanfordUniversityMilesSims,SmallWorldLabsMarcSmith,TelligentDanielTunkelang,Endeca

The Future Of Measurement

What does 2009 hold?

The Future of Measurement

II. continued...

“Inshort,Ipredictmeasurementinthefuturewill8etogetherDemand(branding)andLife8meValue(purchaseandrepeatpurchase)outcomesbydevelopingaframeworkfordetermininghoweffec8veyouareatguidingtheconsumerjourney[acrossspecificstages/phases/milestones.Thismeansdefiningthosestages,assigningaspecificcommunica8onsjobtoeach,definingaconsumeroutcomeforeach,andthentrackingthenumbersofpeopleefficientlymovinginandoutofthosestagesascommunica8ons/marke8ng/adver8singtac8csareintroduced.”MauryGiles,GSD&MIdeaCity“Myfearisthatinourrushtomeasureexci8ngnewstuffandop8mizepredic8vevaliditywemayneglecttokeepoureyeonthevitalbutmuchlessglamorousareaofdiscriminantvalidity.Formanypurposespeoplemaynotcareaboutdiscriminantvaliditybecauseaslongasourmeasurerelatestoanoutcomeinwhichwe'reinterested,whocareswhatthatmeasureisreallytapping?Thatmakessomesenseintheshortterm,butifwewanttogeneralizeourpredic8vemodelstootherdomainswemustgetafirmgraspoftheprocessesdrivingthepredic8ons.Thatmeanshavingagoodideaofwhatitisthatwearemeasuring,whichentailshavingaclearideaofwhatitiswearenotmeasuring.”‐SamGosling,UniversityofTexasatAus8n,AuthorofSnoop:WhatYourStuffSaysAboutYou“Ipredictthatwithinthenext2yearssomeonewillfigureouthowtodohomebrewedeye‐trackingwithiSight/otherwebcamsandcreateapanelofwebsurferswhosendintheireyefixa8ondatatobeaggregatedandanalyzed…Thisdatawouldbeinvaluabletoeveryworkingwebdesignerontheplanet.Designandlayoutdecisionscouldbedrivenbydata.Nottomen8onadver8sing;alotofthis"bannerblindness"loreisreallypoorlystudiedasarethetradeoffsbetweensizeandplacementinonlineadver8sing…Thevalueequa8onbecomesalotsimplerwiththeeyepanel......$perunit8meofaZen8on.Ul8matelybranddollarsarebuyingeyeballsandsuchdatatellsthemwhereeyeballsaregoing.”RoddyLindsay,Facebook

III. We will determine how tomeasure the value of socialinteractions and attachﬁnancial value, whether we’remonetizing attention or a new medium.

“Mypersonalfavoritemeasureisra8oof8mepeoplecollec8velyspendreadingmyblogtothe8meIspendwri8ngit.Embeddingvideoischea8ng.Lessglibly,IdolikethinkintermsofROI,andIimaginethattheaccountantsdotoo.Itprobablymakesthemostsensetomeasureinvestmentintermsof8me.Myexperienceandreadingsuggestthatyoucan'tjustthrowmoneyatsocialmedia,asevidencedbythefailureofcorporateblogsorothersoullessmarke8ngefforts.Rather,thesuccessfulinvestmentsrepresentreal8mefromrealpeoplewhoputtheirsoulsintoit(e.g.,actualexecu8vesbloggingorusingTwiZer).Isupposeyoucanul8matelymeasurethatinvestmentinfinancialtermsbasedontheopportunitycostoftheirnotdoingotherwork,butit'simportantforpeopletorealizethattheresourcesaren'tfungible.Sotherealques8onishowtomeasurethereturn.Idon'tseesocialmediaascomparabletoonlineproductadver8sing,wherethenaturalmeasuresarepay‐per‐clickorpay‐perac8on.Themaingoalseemstobebranding.Adifferen8almeasureofbrandawareness/percep8onwouldbeidealasanend‐to‐endmeasure,butperhapstherearesomeuseful,easiertoobtainmeasureswecangetalongtheway.”DanielTunkelung,Endeca“Thereisaninteres8ngrela8onshipbetweentheamountofaZen8onandthequalityofthataZen8on.Extrapola8ngfromareallifeexample‐abloggerwithalargereadershipwritesaboutXandlinkstoanotherblog.However,asthebloggerisnotreallyanauthorityonthetopic,hedrivesliZleclickthrough.Anotherblogwithafarlowerreadership(1‐2ordersofmagnitudesay)alsowritesaboutXandlinkstoanotherblog.Here,however,thereis(inabsolute,notrela8veterms)moreclickthroughbecausethisbloggerreallyknowsaboutthetopicandhasasmallerbutmorefocusedcommunity.Thustherela8onshipbetweenpopularityandauthorityisveryimportantwhenmeasuringablog.”MaZhewHurst,MicrosoLiveLabs

SOCIAL ABACUS, DECEMBER 23, 2008

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HTTP://SOCIALABACUS.BLOGSPOT.COM/