You are on page 1of 17

(+30 210) 334 1521

e-mail: pmylonas@nbg.gr

2012


, , ,

.

: i)
, ii)
,

.


( 55% )
--
(65% ),
(-22% , 14% 2009-2011)
( 34%),
,
( 30% , ,

),
. ,
(325
.),
,
,
.
.


, .
: i)
( 150
. 90 2014), ,
PSI, 50%

( 2% 2014, 20 ).
,
130 , . ii)
( , , )

. :
,
,


.



.

(

),

.
,
86, .. 102 32


.
35-
,

20% .

,
,
.
,
,
.
,
, ,

.
--
--
, ,
,
.
:
8%
(
).
,

,
,
(..
).

,

.



.
2

/ .


.


,
,
,
.

.

: ,
2012, 2/3
,
, .
(+21%
40%
2010-2011)

.
,


.

,
, ,
, ,
,
.
,


,
.

3



. ,
,
,


.
: i)

,
,

, ii)
,

.



,
,
.
, ,
, ,
.

,
(
):
i.

,
,
9,8% 2011
,
,
.

ii.

.
4

: i)
40% (
,
65% ), ii)
. ,

, .

325 . ,
, 148 .
2
,
( 130 .),
( 35 ),
(12 ).
,
( )
370%
( ) ,
.



.
90 .
, , ,
130 . ,
.

,
. 2011
2,2% ,
,
. ,

,
.

: i)

,
ii) , ,
.
5

,
,
.

22% ( ,
) -- 14,3%
2009-2011. ,
34%, 1/3
.
,
.

1/3 .

1% 2012,

, .


,
(
)
.
80% 394
. , 70 .,
PSI, 47 .
, 125 . , 22 .
, 130 . .
,
12% ( 3,5%
8,5% ),
.


,

, , ,
30-35% ,
,

.



*
BNP

Citi

-50/-60% -60%

-65%

()



()

-40%

>-20%

-17%

-22%

34%

( )

40-50%

16%

32%

. - % (

>200%

435%

373%

80% )

94%


(% )

10,7%

12%

( )
(%)

. -% (

( 80%
)

: BNP Paribas, Citigroup, . . ( 2012)

,



65% (

32% ,



).



( 5
, 37%)

* 1-3

(2011)

19.400

( )

10.385

9.726
9.102
8.700
7.177
7.173
5.225

,

, ,
55%
19.400 2011 8.700
.

,
.



,


(. ).


-- , ,
( 80%)
(.. -15% 95%
-22% , .
),
, .
7







60%
80%
95%


-86%
-65%
-48% .

55%
32%
17%

*
174%
94%
43%

-38%
-22%
-15%

45%
34%
29%

,

* /,

. PSI,

-

:
-
.
. ,
, ,
,

.


-
,
,
. ,
,

,
.
, ,

,
.
( )
,
,

.


. ,
--

-8


,
,
. 1975
1994 ( )

, 85%,
( 13% 16%)

.

12% ,
17%,
.
,
,
, .

, ,
.


, .

( 2 ),
.
:


, .

,
,

,
.


: I)

150 (

EFSF) 90
2014.


100 PSI.

130
.


,
, ,

. , ,
,
, , ..

.

.
2010-5:2012
2014 150 .
( - ) (

147,7
237,9

. & K.
46,7
23,7
(. )
5,8
14,3 EFSF),
20 .

200,2
275,9

*
127,8
,
25
.
X M PSI
105,0


433,0

( )

* 1 2012
, 30 .
70 .
,
.
90 . 2014. ,
(
EFSF
,
/

2014

10


3-3
,
). ,

38 ., ,
2008-2010.
, (PSI),
,
50
( 100 .),
(2% 2012-2014),
.
,
130 .
. ,
450 . 2,2
( 90 .
2014 PSI).
: ()
i.
ii.

iii.
i v.
v.
vi .


.
,

.
,
/ :

11


1

.
,
1 .
:
i. ,
,

.
ii. ,

,
.
iii.
,
.
3 ,

.
iv.

v.
vi.


,
.

.
, 2

20%, . ,
,


.
1
(.. 13-14
),
. ,

.

,

.
,
,

12



.
,

,
,
.
: i)
,
ii) ,

,
.
2
,
- ,
.
48 . ,

. ,
( 130 .),
,
(80 . 50 .
).

,
.

,
4-5
.
3
,


,
. 2010 2011
, , ,
14,5% .
8,2% ( 10,4% 2009
2% 2011),
,
10,3% ( 2010-2011).
,
13



,
, , ,

, .

4,5% ( 2,2% 2011),
11,5 . (5,5%
2013-14). , 2012, 5%
--
-- (.
),

,
.

,

.

5-10

. ,
,
,
,
.




, , .


2013

-65%

-40%

-22%

-55%

34%

32%

373%

94%

-19%*

-14%*

-6,1%

-5,7%

24%

0,9%

148%

()

(
. (% ) .

(% ) (

(%)
(
)

80%

& )
)
& )
)
%

()

12%**
5,5%

**( 80% )

14




2 ,
:
i) FGG ,
PB, (rext, rdom) (Aext Adom)
, .
(1)
,
.
, d()
(FGG)
(Rec).

+Rec

(2)

d(M),
Dep,
(OG t-1)
t-1 .
(3)
d(Dep)
Ydnom (
).
ii) (BP=0),
NXnom (
),
, --
(OSS=0) --
( AText)
.

(4)
(REER)
,

15


(d) -- ,
d(C), d(I), d(X) d(Imp)
-- (idom,
5 ),
d(REER) dW, (
) d(Yf).
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
H
REER ext ,

(d(w)<).
,
d(wr).
(10)

,

,
.
,
.

, ,
,
..,
. ,
,

-, ,
(
/ ).

16



2012

17

You might also like