Professional Documents
Culture Documents
"If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow and which will not, speak then unto me. "
"It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all. " --Henri Poincare in The Foundations of Science, page 129.
Course materials
Course description: Website http://www.kf.vu.lt/~albud/progn/Portugal Demonstrations: PowerPoint presentations Time-series data, forecasting examples (Excel workbooks), assignments
Course plan
Look: http://www.kf.vu.lt/~albud/progn/Portugal# Lectures
Forecasting in management
Forecasting is used in various domains of management: Personnel management Resource management Finance management Organizational management
Quantitative forecasting methods in management 9
11
14
2001
460
2002
470
2003
465
Number 420
15
16
17
18
1995 1996
... 2006 (forecast)
Quantitative forecasting methods in management 19
Example of data
Nework of Municipal Public Libraries in Lithuania in 1991-2002 Year Number of libraries 1991 1662 1992 1569 1993 1521 1994 1514 1995 1506 1996 1484 1997 1473 1998 1459 1999 1447 2000 1448 2001 1427 2002 1400
Source: Statistics of Lithuanian Libraries.
Municipal public libraries in Lithuania in 1991-2002 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300
Number of libraries
2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990
Year
20
21
Example of forecasting
Forecasting using linear trend. Demonstration
Week Number of library visitors
1 2 3 4 5 6
1063 2369 3159 3964 5001 (by inserting number of the week x=6 into the equation) 5. Evaluation (using RSQ) 0,99 Very good fitting Number of library visitors 8000
1. Calculating correlation: Signifficant correlation 2. Plotting a chart (XY scatter) 3. Adding a linear trend line Options: display equation 4. Calculating the forecast
0,995741
Visitors
2 Week
5953
22
Forecast accuracy
Forecast accuracy can be determined only when actual (future) data are available. Error of a forecast is measured as a difference between the actual and forecasted values
23
End