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Sean Skinner
Company Overview
Alpha Natural Resources, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in producing, processing, and selling steam and metallurgical coal in the United States. Types of Coal: Steam (Thermal): Primarily purchased by large utilities and industrial customers as fuel for electricity generation Met (Coking): Used primarily to make coke, a key component in the steel making process
Metallurgical 50% Eastern steam 40% Western steam 10%
Revenue by Product
Export Market
Guidance
Peers
Company Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. Peabody Energy Corp. Patriot Coal Corporation
P/E
P/S 0.3
6.31
6.6
0.42
0.78 0.13
WLT
3077.01
10.03
7.21
0.88
1.1
1.41
36.32
6.56%
1.46
4.86%
Nat Gas
Met Coal
Conclusion: Sell
Future Demand Uncertain Roughly 3/8 of met coal produced is sold in Europe China is slowing, met coal prices are decreasing US expected to be flat from coal perspective for the next 5-20 years. Coal no longer lowest cost energy source, still dirtiest. Risks to Thesis Significant rebound in Nat Gas. Euro does not atomize Stronger than expected growth in India/China Interruptions in Australian coal supply Selling Considerations Possible dead cat bounce Market is oversold, may correct temporarily Bottom Line: ANR is a high risk name with limited upside given current market conditions. Coal may become attractive in the intermediate term. Market decline may yield more favorable entry point in the future.