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Trivedi campaign Poll Memo

Trivedi campaign Poll Memo

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Published by: PoliticsPA on Jun 06, 2012
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06/06/2012

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 To:Interested PartiesFrom:Lake Research PartnersRe:New Survey in PA-06 Reveals Gerlach Vulnerable to UpsetDate:May 31, 2012
A recent survey of likely voters in Pennsylvania’s newly-drawn 6
th
Congressional District reveals Republican JimGerlach highly vulnerable to an upset by primary carephysician and Iraq war veteran, Manan Trivedi.
1
Gerlachstarts out well under fifty percent of the vote and quickly loses hislead once voters
learn more about the two candidates
. Five majorfactors compound Gerlach’s weakness:1)A narrow majority of this district is now comprised of newvoters whom he has never represented;2)The top of the ticket is creating headwinds for the GOP, withtheir Senate and Presidential nominees both losing;3)Voters afford Gerlach strikingly low personal and jobperformance ratings;4)Independent of the alternative, only three-in-ten votersbelieve Gerlach deserves re-election today; and5)The undecided voters lean heavily Democratic and look farmore favorable for Trivedi than Gerlach. Taken together, now represents a unique opportunity to switchthis seat from red to blue.
In an initial trial heat, Gerlach starts out ahead thoughwell under fifty percent of the vote against Trivedi (45% to33% Trivedi, with 22% undecided) and his support onlydeteriorates as voters learn more about the twocandidates. In fact, after simulating a competitivecommunications environment the race quickly draws to atie (39% to 39%, with 22% still undecided).
 The exact text of the statements read to respondents is provided on the following
1
Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey of 408 likely General
1726 M Street, NW
|
Suite 1100
|
Washington, DC 20036
|
  T 202.776.9066 
|
F202.776.9074WASHINGTON, DC 
|
 BERKELEY, CA 
|
 NEW YORK, NY 
|
 LOS ANGELES, CA 
|
 RICHMOND, VAwww.lakeresearch.comCelinda Lake
President 
Alysia Snell
Partner 
Michael Perry
Partner 
David Mermin
Partner 
Robert G. Meadow, Ph.D.
Partner 
Daniel R. Gotoff 
Partner 
 Joshua E. Ulibarri
Partner 
 Tresa Undem
Partner 
Rick A. Johnson
Senior Vice President 
Robert X. Hillman
Chief Operating Officer 
 
2page.
Informed Trial Heat: Candidate ProfilesGerlach Profile:
 Jim Gerlach is a husband and proud father,raising his six children in Chester County. Heunderstands the challenges facing families inour area. Jim has been ranked one of the mostindependent members of Congress, workingwith Democrats and Republicans to makegovernment serve taxpayers, not bureaucrats.He co-sponsored a law to end bonuses for C-E-Os and top executives that got bailouts, andserves on a select committee that is helping fixour trade imbalance and put American andPennsylvania products in every corner of theglobe. Hes been a check against biggovernment spending and government-runhealth care, and is working to make middle-class tax cuts permanent, which would savetaxpayers an average of $2,000 per year. Jim isa tireless, independent voice for Pennsylvania.
Trivedi Profile:
Manan Trivedi was born and raised in BerksCounty. He is a husband, father, primary caredoctor and an Iraq war veteran. His career isone of public service, the exact opposite of aWashington politician. Trivedi says theAmerican Dream in under attack. We're indanger of leaving the next generation worseoff for the first time in our history. But insteadof working to create jobs and restore themiddle-class, Jim Gerlach double-dips into twotaxpayer-funded pensions, one of which hevoted to increase by 50%. Gerlach has grownout of touch. Trivedi will fight to end unfairtrade deals that ship jobs overseas. Trivedi willpush for good American jobs that can’t beoutsourced in industries like clean-energymanufacturing, reduce our dependence onforeign oil, and help rebuild our middle class.
39% Gerlach39% Trivedi
The softness of Gerlach’s support is underscored by votersexceedingly low assessment of the job he is doing. In fact, his jobperformance ratings are the lowest we have seen for an incumbentmember of Congress this cycle. Fewer than three-in-ten voters rateGerlach’s job performance positively (28% excellent/ good job).
Thatcompares to nearly half of voters who rate his performance negatively (45% just fair/ poor). Gerlach does not even have the benefit of personal popularityto offset his underwater job performance ratings, as just 42% of voters have afavorable opinion of him personally and 25% have an unfavorable opinion.Voters’ dissatisfaction with Congressman Gerlach is leaving them looking foran alternative.
Today, only 30% of voters would reelect Gerlach,leaving 70% who are open to new representation. Beyond Gerlach’sweaknesses, Trivedi also looks to benefit from both PresidentObama’s and Senator Bob Casey’s early leads at the top of the ballot.
Finally, the profile of the undecided voters who will decide this race providessome of the most daunting news for Gerlach. In a district that is split in termsof party identification (41% each Democratic and Republican, 18%independent/ other),
the undecided voters lean Democratic by a 20-pointmargin (47% Democratic, 27% Republican, 26% independent/ other)and are supporting Obama over Romney by an even wider 27-pointmargin.Bottom Line: Pennsylvania’s 6
th
district is not the same landscape asit was 4 or even 2 years ago. Gerlach is in a severely weakened
Election voters in PA-06. The survey was conducted by telephone, using professionalinterviewers, May 21-23, 2012. The overall margin of error for this survey is +/-4.9%.
Lake Research Partners

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