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away and the campaigns are in full swing, so now’s a good time to weigh in on the U.S.
presidential race.In spite of the incumbent status of President Barack Obama,a Democrat,the U.S.
presidential race is more competitive this year than it has been since the 2000 Election.
The presumptive Republican challenger, Mitt Romney,is virtually tied with the president
in public opinion polls.
on June 5 showed PresidentObama leading Romney by an average 2%, a decrease from 4% on April 25. This iswithin the 2-3% margin of error and puts the two candidates in a statistical dead heat.Based on poll trends
,we’re in for a close finish.
Here’s my objective analysis of how key events likely to occur between now and ElectionDay could give an advantage to Obama or Romney. Where there’s no clear favorite, Icalled it a “Toss Up.” I am not predicting w
ho will win the presidency. Watch how
Obama and Romney fare in the aftermath of these milestones, and you’ll have a better
as John McCain’s vice presidential candidate influenced the election. This year’s contest will be no different, and
the race is close enough that a single event, such as a seismic jobs report or aninternational incident, could shift the balance in favor of one candidate.
North Korea (DPRK) warned that its troops have aimed artillery atSouth Korean media groups and threatened a "merciless sacred war" after the outletscri
ticized children’s celebrations in Pyongyang. While North Korea often makes vague
statements threatening South Korea and the United States with utter destruction, thiswarning specifically mentioned the longitude and latitude of the locations of seven mediaoutfits in Seoul. While the chance that the DPRK will take military action against theSouth before November 6 is slim, North Korea has been known to take advantage of apolitical situation to make a statement as it did in November 2010 when it shelledYeonpyeong Island.The lower the tensions between the two Koreas, the better forObama. A pre-election attack on the Korean Peninsula would put him in a difficultpolitical situation at a bad time.
Polls and most political commentators believe that incumbentWisconsin Governor Scott Walker will win by a sizeable margin and may provide a bumpfor Romney in Wisconsin, a key swing state. Obama defeated McCain by a wide marginin 2008. Many commentators have indicated that the state may be in play with a largerRepublican turnout in November energized by the recall election, and early exit pollsshow the race tightening to +6 for Obama, a 2-point decrease from the national poll