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Key Events Influencing the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Key Events Influencing the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

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Published by M.G. Edwards
An objective analysis of how key events likely to occur between now and Election Day could give an advantage to President Obama or his challenger, Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential race. Where there’s no clear favorite, I called it a “Toss Up.”
An objective analysis of how key events likely to occur between now and Election Day could give an advantage to President Obama or his challenger, Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential race. Where there’s no clear favorite, I called it a “Toss Up.”

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Published by: M.G. Edwards on Jun 07, 2012
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11/07/2012

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© 2012 Brilliance Press. All rights reserved.
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With the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election today, I thought it was time to get a little political. Election Day in the United States, November 6, is less than six months
away and the campaigns are in full swing, so now’s a good time to weigh in on the U.S.
presidential race.In spite of the incumbent status of President Barack Obama,a Democrat,the U.S. presidential race is more competitive this year than it has been since the 2000 Election.  The presumptive Republican challenger, Mitt Romney,is virtually tied with the president in public opinion polls. 
 on June 5 showed PresidentObama leading Romney by an average 2%, a decrease from 4% on April 25. This iswithin the 2-3% margin of error and puts the two candidates in a statistical dead heat.Based on poll trends
,we’re in for a close finish.
 
Here’s my objective analysis of how key events likely to occur between now and ElectionDay could give an advantage to Obama or Romney. Where there’s no clear favorite, Icalled it a “Toss Up.” I am not predicting w
ho will win the presidency. Watch how
Obama and Romney fare in the aftermath of these milestones, and you’ll have a better 
idea of who will win. As the 2008 Election demonstrated, announcements such as thecollapse of Lehman Brothers and the naming of  Sarah Palin 
as John McCain’s vice presidential candidate influenced the election. This year’s contest will be no different, and
the race is close enough that a single event, such as a seismic jobs report or aninternational incident, could shift the balance in favor of one candidate.
June 4, 2012: North Korea threatens to attack South Korean media outlets in Seoul
 
 Advantage: Obama.
North Korea (DPRK) warned that its troops have aimed artillery atSouth Korean media groups and threatened a "merciless sacred war" after the outletscri
ticized children’s celebrations in Pyongyang. While North Korea often makes vague
statements threatening South Korea and the United States with utter destruction, thiswarning specifically mentioned the longitude and latitude of the locations of seven mediaoutfits in Seoul. While the chance that the DPRK will take military action against theSouth before November 6 is slim, North Korea has been known to take advantage of apolitical situation to make a statement as it did in November 2010 when it shelledYeonpyeong Island.The lower the tensions between the two Koreas, the better forObama. A pre-election attack on the Korean Peninsula would put him in a difficultpolitical situation at a bad time.
June 6, 2012: Wisconsin recall election between Governor Scott Walker (R) and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D)
 
 Advantage: Romney.
Polls and most political commentators believe that incumbentWisconsin Governor Scott Walker will win by a sizeable margin and may provide a bumpfor Romney in Wisconsin, a key swing state. Obama defeated McCain by a wide marginin 2008. Many commentators have indicated that the state may be in play with a largerRepublican turnout in November energized by the recall election, and early exit pollsshow the race tightening to +6 for Obama, a 2-point decrease from the national poll
 
© 2012 Brilliance Press. All rights reserved.
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average. Given that Obama won the state in 2008 by 12 points, his support in Wisconsin -- and perhaps in other states he carried in 2008 -- has waned.
June 8, 2012: International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) talks with Iran over its Nuclear Program
 
 Advantage: Obama.
 
Talks with Iran over its nuclear program are ongoing, and Iran’s
admission that the Flame virus caused a massive data loss on its computer networks should be a setback for its nuclear program. Iran will continue to be a foreign policypriority for the United States but is likely to have little or no impact on the U.S. Election.The perception that the United States was involved in 
 -- whether true ornot --
may help or hurt Obama’s image.
 
 Advantage: Romney.
After a political stalemate in May when the Greeks were unable to form a new government, new elections were called in Greece for June 17. The chance thatthis round will go better is low, and the results may send new shockwaves through the financial markets, especially if minor parties such as Syriza make substantial gains.Ongoing issues over Greek debt will continue to weigh down the Eurozone.While the likelihood that Greece exits the euro and destabilizes the Eurozone before the U.S.Election is small, the country will continue to make news through the campaign period,
and much of it won’t help Obama’s efforts to stimulate the U.S. economy.
 
June 20-24, 2012: The Supreme Court rules on the constitutionality of the PatientProtection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)
 Advantage: Toss Up.
If the Supreme Court declares the PPACA unconstitutional orstrikes down the individual insurance mandate, it will generally be viewed as a setback for the president because the law is considered one of his major legislative achievements.Views on whether this will happen vary. According to the Wall Street Journal,just 35% of legal experts who have argued cases believed the Court would strike down themandate. As of June 5, the sentiment at Intrade put the odds that the mandate will be
rejected at 65.3%. If it’s upheld, it will benefit Obama; if overturned, it will be a blow to
his reelection campaign.
July 6, 2012: June Employment Situation Report released
 
 Advantage: Romney.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly jobsreport for June. The May report released on June 1 showed signs of  decreased job growth, higher unemployment, and a downward revision of the March and April job reports.
Given this trend, it’s likely that the June report won’t be much better and will be bad
news for Obama.
July 20, 2012: UN action (or inaction) on Syria
 

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