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06/05/2013

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Series 4 2011 (3009)
LCCI International Qualifications

3009/4/11/MA Page 1 of 16
Series 4 2011
How to use this booklet

3009/4/11/MA Page 2 of 16
QUESTION 1
(a) State
four
characteristics of the normal distribution.(4 marks)Each day from Monday to Friday John commutes to work by train. His journey takes an averageof 40 minutes to complete with a standard deviation of 10 minutes.(b) Assuming his journey times are normally distributed, find the probability that his journeytakes:(i) less than 20 minutes(ii) less than 55 minutes(iii) between 30 minutes and 60 minutes to complete.(8 marks)(c) If John always leaves home 60 minutes before his scheduled work start time, what is theprobability that he is not late for work on any day in a normal five day week?(3 marks)John buys a rail ticket each morning he arrives at the station.Over a typical 80 day period he notes that on 13 days there was no queue at the ticket office,on 25% of the days there was a queue of between 1 and 5 people and on the remaining days there wasa queue of 6 or more.He also noted that on 5% of the occasions there was a pricing error on his ticketAssume the length of the queue and possible ticket errors are independent events and that the abovedata is representative of all journeys made.(d) Find the probability that on a randomly chosen day there is a queue at the ticket officeand no error on the ticket purchased.(5 marks)
(Total 20 marks)MODEL ANSWER TO QUESTION 1Syllabus Topic 4.2: Normal Distribution
(a) Symmetrical, bell-shaped, mean median and mode are equal,asymptotic to the x axis(b) (i)
σ
x x z
=
=
104020
= -20/10 = -2, p = 0.977, Ans = 1-0.977 =0.023(ii)
σ
x x z
=
=
104055
= 15/10 = 1.5, Ans p = 0.933(iii)
σ
x x z
=
=
104030
= -10/10 = -1.0, p = 0.841
σ
x x z
=
=
104060
= 20/10 = 2.0, p = 0.977Answer 0.841 + 0.977 – 1 = 0.818(c) 0.977
5
= 0.891(d) 0.587 and 0.1625 seen0.95(0.5875 + 0.25) x 0.95 = 0.7964x11m 1ft 1cao1ft1cao1cao1cao1cao1m 1ft 1cao1m 1cao1cao1m 1cao