. . .

. 0 5426 5031 . 0 5426 5032 http://klang.cgd.go.th/lpg

5/2555

30 2555

2555
2555 4.0

2555
2554 4.0 (
0.8 7.7)
2554 1.5 4.8
( -1.8 4.7 )





(-)

13.2 7.6 (
10.2 17.8 )
6.5 2554
6.2

6.1
40% 2555
7.4
2555 10

-2-

2555 4.1
( 2.2 7.0 ) 9.4



2555
( 2555)

1) :
()
3) : ()
4) :
()
6) : ( ..)
7) ()
7) ()
7) ()
8) ()
9) ()
10) ()
10) ()
11) ()
12) ()
13) ()
14) ()

1) ()
2) ()
3) ()
4) ()
5) ()
6) ()
7) ()
8) ()
9) ()
()

2553

2554r

-10.6

2555f

3.6

9.0

6.0 - 15.0

5,738

4,021

4,624

4,423 - 4,825

14,354

14,059

14,761

14,761 - 14,761

59
2.5
-8.9
-46.8
2.3
-6.8
33.6
9.1
12.6
6.9
-9.6

66
9.4
4.0
113.4
17.7
8.3
0.8
-4.1
9.2
5.7
11.5

57
7.0
1.5
3.5
11.7
4.0
5.3
10.9
6.0
4.3
9.0

46 - 73
6.0 - 8.0
1.0 - 2.0
2.0 - 5.0
10.0 - 15.0
3.0 - 5.0
3.0 - 8.0
1.8 - 20.0
1.2 - 15.0
2.0 - 8.0
8.0 - 10.0

2.0

12.1

6.5

5.0 - 8.0

2.1
28.3
-1.0
0.2
23.5
15.9
79.8
8.6
453,419

4.4
2.4
7.8
6.3
6.2
7.0
16.2
9.4
456,243

4.0
1.2
4.7
5.5
6.5
6.1
2.8
4.1
457,264

0.8 - 7.7
-1.3 - 4.4
2.6 - 6.7
-0.1 - 10.1
4.8 - 8.3
1.6 - 14.3
-3.8 - 10.8
2.2 - 7.0
456,448 - 458,215

-7,746

2,825

1,021

205 - 1,972

: (CFO)
: 30 2555
r = Revised :
f = Forecast :

-3-

1.5 2555
4.8
1.2 4.7 5.5
1.1 2555 9.0
( 6.0 15.0 ) 2554 3.6



:

3.6

2549

-16.9
2550

-6.2

-5.6

2551

2552

2.7

-10.6
2553

2554

2555F(
2554)

6.0

9.0

MIN

CONSENSUN

15.0

MAX

2555F( 2555)

1.2 2555 4,624

2554 4,021 ( 4,423 4,825 )

:
%yoy

%yoy

31.1
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0

10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-

7,017

2549

7,841

2550

7,259

2551

6,268

2552

5,738

2553

4,021

2554

5,892

2555F(

2554)

4,423

4,624

4,825

MIN

CONSENSUN

MAX

2555F( 2555)

-4-

1.3 (-) 2555

7.0 ( 6.0 8.0 ) 1.5 (
1.0 2.0 ) 3.5 ( 2.0 5.0 )

%yoy

15.0
10.0
5.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0

9.4
1.5
-1.7

-2.3
-10.7
2549

2550

9.5

2.5

2551

6.0
MIN

2552

2553

2554

2555F(

2554)

7.0

8.0

CONSENSUN

MAX

2555F( 2555)

%yoy

( - )
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0

15.3
4.0
-0.3
-12.5
2549

2550

-1.5
-15.2
2551

-8.9
2553

2552

2554

1.0

1.5

2.0

MIN

CONSENSUN

MAX

2555F(

2554)

2555F( 2555)

113.4

120.0

%yoy

70.0
3.9

20.0
-30.0

-10.0

-80.0

2549

17.0

6.3
-6.2

2550

2551

2552

-46.8
2553

2554

2555F(

2554)

2.0

3.5

5.0

MIN

CONSENSUN

MAX

2555F( 2555)

-5-

1.4 2555
11.7 ( 10.0 15.0 ) 2554 17.7

%yoy

20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0

17.7
5.8
0.0

2.3

2550

2551

2552

2553

11.7

MIN

CONSENSUN

15.0

4.8

2.3

-4.4
2549

10.0

2554

2555F(

2554)

MAX

2555F( 2555)

1.5 2555 4.0

( 3.0 5.0 ) 2554 8.3

%yoy

15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0

9.4

10.7

-5.0
2549

2550

8.3

7.8

2551

2.8

-6.8
2552

2553

2554

2555F(

2554)

3.0

4.0

5.0

MIN

CONSENSUN

MAX

2555F( 2555)

13.2 2555 (
10.2 17.8 )
6.5)


7.4 6.1

-6-

2.1 2555 5.3 (

3.0 5.0 ) 2554 0.8

(Eco Car) CNG

%yoy

35.0
25.0
15.0
5.0
-5.0
-15.0

33.6

15.2
0.4

3.8

0.8

6.1

-3.9
2549

2550

2551

2552

2553

2554

3.0

5.3

8.0

MIN

CONSENSUN

MAX

2555F(

2554)

2555F( 2555)

2.2 2555 10.9

( 1.8 20.0 ) 2554 4.1

%yoy

25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-5.0
-10.0

2.4

1.0

6.7

9.1

-2.4
2549

3.8

2551

2552

2553

2554

1.8
MIN

-4.1
2550

10.9

2555F(

2554)

CONSENSUN

20.0

MAX

2555F( 2555)

2.3 2555
5,325 ( 5,082 5,775 )
2554 5,022

%yoy

8,000.0
6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
-

3,832

2549

3,842

2550

3,965

2551

4,082

2552

4,596

2553

5,022

2554

6,069

2555F(

2554)

5,082

5,325

5,775

MIN

CONSENSUN

MAX

2555F( 2555)

-7-

2.4 4.3
( 2.0 8.0 ) 2554 5.7

30.0
%yoy

20.0

20.3
6.9

5.8

10.0

5.7

6.0

8.0

2.0

4.3

MIN

CONSENSUN

-2.5

-10.0
-20.0

2549

-15.8
2550

2551

2552

2553

2554

2555F(

2554)

MAX

2555F( 2555)

2.5 9.0
6.5 2555 10

%yoy

25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0

23.3

18.2

15.0

11.5

-3.4
2549

-4.4
2550

2551

8.0

9.0

10.0

MIN

CONSENSUN

MAX

-9.6
2552

2553

2554

2555F(

2554)

2555F( 2555)

%yoy

35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-

30.0
9.7
1.3

2549

2550

4.2

2551

8.4

2552

12.1
2.0

2553

2554

2555F(

2554)

5.0

6.5

8.0

MIN

CONSENSUN

MAX

2555F( 2555)

-8-

2555 2.8 (
-3.8 10.8) 16.2 2554
3.1 2555 14,761 ( 14,761 14,761
) 2554

2555

%yoy

:
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-

7,961

2549

10,965

2550

14,354
8,166

2551

14,059

17,644

14,761

14,761

14,761

MIN

CONSENSUN

MAX

8,176

2552

2553

2554

2555F(

2554)

2555F( 2555)

3.2 2555 57 ( 46 73
) 2554 66

%yoy

:
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
-

46

2549

39

2550

53

2551

57

2552

59

2553

66

2554

75

2555F(

2554)

46

57

MIN

CONSENSUN

73

MAX

2555F( 2555)

-9-

2555 4.1
( 2.2 7.0 )

( )

%yoy

: Inflation
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-2.0

5.5

3.8

9.4

8.6

6.4

4.1

-0.1
2549

2550

2551

7.0
4.1

2.2
MIN

2552

2553

2554

2555F(

2554)

CONSENSUN

MAX

2555F( 2555)

2555 1,021 (
205 1,972 ) 2554 1,804
457,264

%yoy

: employment LPG
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
-20,000

15,264

19,395

2,825
-3,189
2549

1,850

-7,746
2550
-14,803

2551

2552

2553

2554

2555F(

2554)

205

1,021

1,972

MIN

CONSENSUN

MAX

2555F( 2555)

- 10 -

Indicators

2554

2555 f

Unit

2550

2551

2552

2553

Million Baht
%yoy
Million Baht
%yoy
Person
%yoy

45,242
5.9
25,560
1.3
812,961
0.2
55,651

46,402
2.6
24,970
-2.3
814,889
0.2
56,942

55,507
19.6
25,283
1.3
816,616
0.2
67,972

59,418
7.0
25,802
2.1
819,327
0.3
72,521

65,990
11.1
26,937
4.4
819,284
0.0
80,545

68,780
4.2
27,151
0.8
819,284
0.0
83,952

71,709
8.7
28,006
4.0
819,284
0.0
87,526

75,219
14.0
29,002
7.7
819,284
0.0
91,810

Min

Consensus

Max

Economic Growth
GPP current prices
GPP constant
price: 1988
Population
GPP per capita

Baht/person/year

Agriculture (API)
Industry (IPI)
Service (SI)

%yoy
%yoy
%yoy

18.4
0.6
4.7

13.9
-3.9
2.8

-21.2
5.8
-2.3

28.3
-1.0
0.2

2.4
7.8
6.3

-1.3
2.6
-0.1

1.2
4.7
5.5

4.4
6.7
10.1

%yoy

-0.2

0.3

1.7

23.5

6.2

4.8

6.5

8.3

%yoy

-3.8

2.4

1.8

15.9

7.0

1.6

6.1

14.3

%yoy

14.1

-0.2

13.9

-6.8

12.7

5.5

7.4

9.9

%yoy

44.6

2.1

-20.5

79.8

16.2

-3.8

2.8

10.8

%p.a.
%yoy

3.8
3.4

6.4
10.5

-0.1
-2.7

8.6
9.1

9.4
6.7

2.2
3.4

4.1
4.7

7.0
6.3

Person
yoy

426,506
-14,803

441,770
15,264

461,165
19,395

453,419
-7,746

456,243
2,825

456,448
205

457,264
1,021

458,215
1,972

Private
Consumption (Cp)
Private
Investment (Ip)
Government
Expenditure (G)
Farm Income
Economic Stabilities
Inflation rate
GPP Deflator
Employment

r = Revised :
f = Forecast :

- 11 -

GPP constant price

GPP current prices
GPPS
GPPD
API
IPI
SI
Cp Index
Ip Index
G Index
GPP Deflator
CPI
PPI
Inflation rate
Farm Income Index
Population
Employment
%yoy
Base year
Min
Consensus
Max

(2548 = 100)

(Supply Side Production Side: GPPS)

3
(1)
(2)
(3)

0.3326
0.3412
0.3262

( + ) (
) (11
) GPP . GPP .

- 12 -

1 (45 ) API (Q), IPI (Q), SI (Q)
2548
.. 2548
(Agricultural Production Index: API)
10
- :

- :

- :

- :

- :

- : ()

- :

- :

- :

- :

(Seasonal Adjusted : SA)

0.3764
0.0219
0.0849
0.0448
0.0178
0.0258
0.0186
0.1544
0.1041
0.1531

API (Q)
GPP Bottom up
( )
(Industrial Production Index: IPI)
8
-
- ( )
-
-
-
-
-
-

0.1167
0.1103
0.1134
0.1227
0.1332
0.1316
0.1447
0.1275

IPI
Correlation GPP (.)
( )

- 13 -

(Service Index: SI)

8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

- 5101-3 . 1 - 3

0.0535
0.0066
0.0066
0.0535
0.0066
0.4099

0.2014
0.2620

SI
GPP
2552 (.) GPP (.)

(Demand Side: GPPD)

3
(1) 0.4268
(2) 0.3960
(3)
0.1771
GPP
constant price

1 (45 ) Cp Index, Ip Index, G Index
2548
.. 2548
(Private Consumption Index : Cp Index)
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

0.3484
0.2310
0.1685
0.0546
0.0592
0.0095
0.0705
0.0584

- 14 -

Cp Index
Cp Index ()

(Private Investment Index: Ip)

8
-

-
-
-

-
-

0.0074
0.0349
0.0045
0.0007
0.0375
0.0081
0.8683
0.0385

Ip Index
Ip Index ()

(Government Expenditure Index: G)

4
-
-
-
-

0.5235
0.3634
0.0878
0.0254

Ip Index
Ip Index ()

(GPP constant price)

2
- (GPPS) 0.6800
- (GPPD) 0.5000

GPP Deflator :
- (PPI)
0.6800
- (CPI) 0.5000

GPP constant price X 0.0563 ()

- 15 -

(Simple Linear Regression Analysis)

ln(Emp) = + (ln(GPP))
Emp =
Website 2549 2552

GPP = .
2549 2552 GPP

1
2
3