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Ly Thuyet Thong Ke

Ly Thuyet Thong Ke

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Published by: vt_kkb on Jan 01, 2009
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10/16/2011

 
http://www.ebook.edu.vn
Muïc luïc
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
1 MUÏC LUÏCCHÖÔNG 1 NHAÄP MN THOÁNG KHOÏC................................6
 
1.1.
 
LÖÔÏC ÏRA ÑÔØI VAØPHAÙT TRIEÅN CUÛA THOÁNG KEÂHOÏC6
 
1.2.
 
ÑI TÖÔÏNG NGHIN ÙU CUÛA THOÁNG KHC..................9
 
1.3.
 
QUY LUAÄT SOÁLÔÙN VAØTÍNH QUY LUAÄT THNG K.........11
 
1.4. NHÖÕNG KHAÙI NIEÄM THÖÔØNG DUØNG TRONG THOÁNG KEÂHOÏC.........................................................................................................11
 
1.4.1. Tng theåthoáng k:
...............................................................................11
 
1.4.2.
 
Ñôn vòtoång theå:
...................................................................................13
 
1.4.3.
 
Tiu tùc (tieâu chí):
.............................................................................13
 
1.4.4.
 
Chætieâu thoáng keâ:
................................................................................13
 
C
AÂU HOÛI OÂN TAÄP CHÖÔNG
1
.............................................................................14
 
CHÖÔNG 2 QUAÙTNH NGHIN CÖÙU THNG K.....................15
 
2.1.
 
HEÄTHOÁNG
 
C
 
TIEÂU
 
THOÁNG
 
K
........................................................15
 
2.1.1. Khi nieäm heäthoáng chætieâu thng keâ(goïi tt lheäthng chætiu)
....15
 
2.1.2. Nguyn tc xy ïng heäthoáng chætieâu thoáng keâ
..................................15
 
2.2.
 
ÑIEÀU
 
TRA
 
THOÁNG
 
KEÂ
...........................................................................16
 
2.2.1.
 
KHAÙI NIM, YÙNGHÓA NHIM VUÏ.
...........................................16
 
2.2.1.1.
 
Khi nieäm:
........................................................................................16
 
2.2.1.2.
 
YÙùnghóa:
............................................................................................16
 
2.2.1.3.
 
Yeâu caàu:
...........................................................................................16
 
2.2.2.
 
NI DUNG KEÁHOAÏCH ÑIU TRA THNG KEÂ.
.......................17
 
2.2.2.1.
 
Xc ñònh muïc ñích nhim vcuûa coâng tc ñieàu tra thng keâ:
...17
 
2.2.2.2.
 
Xc ñònh ñoái töôïng ñiu tra, ñôn vòñiu tra:
...............................17
 
2.2.2.3.
 
Noäi dung ñiu tra:
............................................................................17
 
2.2.2.4. Xc ñònh thôøi gian vñòa ñim ñiu tra:
.......................................18
 
2.2.2.5. Lp biu ñiu tra höôùng dn cch ghi:
..........................................18
 
2.2.2.6. Khoaïch tin hnh:
.........................................................................18
 
2.2.3.
 
CAÙC LOAÏI ÑIU TRA THNG K
.............................................18
 
2.2.4.
 
HAI HÌNH THÖÙC TCHÖÙC ÑIU TRA THNG K.
................19
 
2.2.4.1. Baùo caùo thoáng keâñònh kyø:
....................................................................19
 
2.2.4.2. Ñieàu tra chuyn moân:
...........................................................................20
 
2.2.5.
 
CAÙC PHÖÔNG PHAÙP THU THAÄP TAØI LIEÄU BAN ÑAÀU.
............20
 
2.2.5.1.
 
Ñng kyùtröïc tip:
............................................................................20
 
2.2.5.2.
 
Phoûng vn:
........................................................................................20
 
2.2.5.3. Ñng kyùqua chöùng töøsoåsaùch:
...........................................................20
 
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2.2.6.
 
CAÙC SAI SOÁTRONG ÑIEÀU TRA THNG KEÂVAØBIEÄN PHAÙPKHAÉC PHUÏC.
............................................................................................20
 
2.3.
 
TOÅNG
 
HÔÏP
 
THOÁNG
 
KEÂ
..........................................................................21
 
2.3.1.
 
KHAÙI NIEÄM YÙNGHÓA.
...............................................................21
 
2.3.1.1.
 
Khi nieäm:
........................................................................................21
 
2.3.1.2.
 
YÙnghóa:
............................................................................................21
 
2.3.1.3.
 
Nhöõng vn ñeàcô baûn ca toång hôïp thoáng keâ.
..............................21
 
2.3.1.4.
 
Bng thoáng kvñoàthòthng keâ:
................................................22
 
2.4.
 
PHAÂN
 
TÍCH
 
THOÁNG
 
KEÂ
.........................................................................28
 
2.4.1.
 
KHAÙI NIM YÙNGHÓA NHIM VUÏ.
...........................................28
 
2.4.2.
 
CAÙC NGUYEÂN TAÉC CÔ BAÛN CUÛA PHAÂN TÍCH THOÁNG KEÂ.
...29
 
2.4.3. CAÙC VAÁN ÑEÀCHUÛYEÁU KHI TIEÁN HAØNH PHAÂN TÍCH THOÁNG KEÂ.
..................................................................................................................30
 
2.4.3.1.
 
Xaùc ñònh nhieäm vuïcuïtheåcuûa phaân tích thng keâ.
.....................30
 
2.4.3.2.
 
Löïa chn ñnh giaùti liu dng ñeåphn tích.
.............................30
 
2.4.3.3. Xc ñònh caùc phöông php vaøcaùc chætieâu phaân tích.
..................31
 
2.4.3.4.
 
So saùnh ñoái chieáu cc chætieâu.
.......................................................31
 
2.4.3.5.
 
Ruùt ra kt luaän vaøñeàxuaát kieán nghò.
............................................32
 
C
AÂU HOÛI OÂN TAÄP CHÖÔNG
2
.............................................................................33
 
CHÖÔNG 3 PHAÂN TTHNG KEÂ..................................34
 
3.1.
 
KHAÙI NIM:.................................................................................34
 
3.2.
 
PHÖÔNG PHAÙP PHAÂN TOÅTHOÁNG KEÂ:
........................................35
 
C
AÂU HI VAØBAØI TAÄP CHÖÔNG
3
........................................................................43
 
CHÖÔNG 4 LÖÔÏNG HOAÙHIN TÖÔÏNG KINH TXAÕHI.............45
 
4.1.
 
CHÆTIU TUYT ÑOÁI:...............................................................45
 
4.1.1.
 
Chætiu tuyeät ñoái thôøi ñim:
..............................................................45
 
4.1.2.
 
Chætiu tuyeät ñoái thôøi kyø:
...................................................................46
 
4.2.
 
CHÆTIU TÖÔNG ÑOÁI:..............................................................49
 
4.2.1.
 
Soátöông ñi ñoäng thaùi:
.......................................................................50
 
4.2.2.
 
Soátöông ñi keáhoch:
........................................................................52
 
4.2.3.
 
Soátöông ñi keát cu:
...........................................................................53
 
4.2.4.
 
Soátöông ñi cöôøng ñoä:
.......................................................................54
 
4.2.5.
 
Soátöông ñi so saùnh:
..........................................................................54
 
4.3.
 
CHÆ TIU NH QUAÂN:.............................................................54
 
4.3.1.
 
Khi nieäm, yùnghóa vaøñc ñieåm:
.......................................................54
 
4.3.2.
 
Caùc loaïi soábình quaân:
.........................................................................55
 
4.4.
 
MOÁT
...............................................................................................63
 
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4.4.1.
 
Khi nieäm
.............................................................................................63
 
4.4.2.
 
Coâng thöùc xaùc ñònh moát
......................................................................63
 
4.4.3.
 
ÖÙng duïng cuûa mt trong tïc tin:
....................................................67
 
4.5.
 
SOÁTRUNG VÒ
................................................................................67
 
4.5.1.
 
Khi nieäm
.............................................................................................67
 
4.5.2.
 
Cch xc ñònh soátrung vò
...................................................................67
 
4.5.3.
 
Tính cht cuûa soátrung vò
....................................................................69
 
4.6.
 
ÑOÄBIEÁN THIEÂN CUÛA TIEÂU THÖÙC:
..............................................69
 
4.6.1.
 
Khaùi nim, yùnghóa:
.............................................................................69
 
4.6.2.
 
Caùc chætieâu ñaùnh giaùñoäbieán thieân cuûa tieâu thöùc:
..........................70
 
4.7.
 
Caùc pông php tính phöông sai:
........................................................74
 
C
AÂU HI VAØBAØI TAÄP CHÖÔNG
4
........................................................................75
 
CHÖÔNG 5 TÖÔNG QUAN VAØHOÀI QUY..........................83
 
5.1.
 
MOÁI LIEÂN HEÄGIÖÕA CAÙC HIEÄN TÖÔÏNG, NHIEÄM VUÏCUÛAPHÖÔNG PHAÙP HOÀI QUY VAØTÖÔNG QUAN...................................83
 
5.2.
 
ÔNG QUAN TUYN TÍNH GIÖÕA HAI TIU THÖÙC............84
 
5.2.1.
 
Tröôøng hôïp soáliu chöa phaân toå:
......................................................84
 
5.2.2.
 
Tröôøng hôïp soálieäu ñöôïc phaân toå:
......................................................89
 
5.3.
 
TÖÔNG QUAN PHI TUYN TÍNH GIÖÕA HAI TIU THÖÙC...90
 
5.3.1.
 
Caùc phöông trình hoài quy:
..................................................................91
 
5.3.2.
 
Caùc loaïi chætiu ñaùnh gitöông quan phi tuyn.
............................92
 
5.4.
 
LIN HTÖÔNG QUAN TUYN TÍNH GIÖÕA NHIU TIUTHÖÙC.......................................................................................................95
 
C
AÂU HI VAØBAØI TAÄP CHÖÔNG
5
........................................................................98
 
CHÖÔNG 6 DAÕY STHÔØI GIAN.................................101
 
6.1. KHAÙI NIM:..................................................................................101
 
6.2.
CAÙC CHÆTIU PHAÂN TÍCH:........................................................102
 
6.2.1. Möùc ñoätrung nh theo tøi gian:
....................................................102
 
6.2.2.
 
Löôïng tng hoc gim tuyeät ñi:
.....................................................104
 
6.2.3.
 
Toác ñoäpht trieån:
..............................................................................105
 
6.2.4.
 
Toác ñoätng hoc giaûm:
....................................................................106
 
6.2.5. Tròtuyt ñi cuûa 1% tng (hoaëc gim):
..........................................106
 
6.3.
 
CAÙC PHÖÔNG PHAÙP BIEÅU HIEÄN XU HÖÔÙNG PHAÙT TRIEÅNCUÛA HIN TÖÔÏNG:.............................................................................107
 
6.3.1.
 
Phöông php môûroäng khong caùch thôøi gian:
...............................107
 
6.3.2.
 
Phöông php soátrung bình tröôït:
.....................................................108
 
6.3.3.
 
Phöông php hi quy:
........................................................................109
 
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