2012 04

.
Mean
KBankS Multi Asset Strategies
Strategies
QE3

?
USD/Asia
QE3 FOMC M2

Ben and Co. QE3
Steepening trade

25bp

AEC
Macro / Multi Asset

April 2012
Volume 59
Kobsidthi Silpachai, CFA Kasikornbank

kobsidthi.s@kasikornbank.com
KResearch
kr.bd@kasikornresearch.com
Disclaimer: This report

must be read with the
Disclaimer on page 49
that forms part of it
KBank Multi Asset
Strategies
can now be accessed on
Bloomberg: KBCM <GO>
Key Parameters & Forecasts at Year-end

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011E
2012E
GDP, % YoY
6.3
4.6
5.2
4.9
2.5
-2.3
7.8
0.1
5.0
Consumption, % YoY
6.2
4.6
3.0
1.6
2.7
-1.1
4.8
1.3
4.0
Investment Spending, % YoY
13.2
10.5
3.9
1.3
1.2
-9.2
9.4
3.3
6.2
Govt Budget / GDP %
-0.2
0.3
-0.7
-1.5
-1.0
-5.6
-3.2
-2.7
-3.8
Export, % YoY
n.a.
n.a.*
17.0
18.2
15.9
-13.9
28.4
16.4
10.0
Import, % YoY
n.a.
n.a.
7.8
9.1
26.7
-25.1
37.0
24.7
12.0
Current Account (USD bn)
n.a.
-7.64
2.32
15.68
2.16
21.90
13.18
11.9
8.1
CPI % YoY, average
2.8
4.5
4.6
2.3
5.5
-0.9
3.3
3.8
3.9
USD/THB
38.9
41.0
36.1
33.7
34.8
33.3
31.4
31.54
29.50
Fed Funds, % year-end
2.25
4.25
5.25
4.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
BOT repo, % year-end
2.00
4.00
5.00
3.25
2.75
1.25
2.00
3.25
3.00
Bond Yields
2yr, % year-end
2.78
4.94
5.02
3.91
1.98
2.17
2.35
3.10
3.50
5yr, % year-end
4.0
5.3
5.1
4.5
2.2
3.6
2.75
3.15
3.75
4.9
5.5
5.4
4.9
2.7
4.3
3.25
3.30
4.00
USD/JPY
10yr, % year-end
102.5
118.0
119.1
111.8
90.7
93.0
82.0
76.9
80
EUR/USD
1.36
1.18
1.32
1.46
1.40
1.43
1.40
1.29
1.30
SET Index
668.1
713.7
679.8
858.1
450.0
734.5
1040
1025.3
1350
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank, KResearch, KSecurities
11
WWW.KASIKORNBANKGROUP.COM
KBank Thai Government Bond Rich / Cheap model
Bps (actual YTM vs. model)

15.00
3 mth avg
Now
10.00
5.00
0.00
-5.00
LB406A
LB396A
LB296A
LB283A
LB267A
LB24DA
LB213A
LB19DA
LB198A
LB196A
LB191A
LB183B
LB175A
LB16NA
LB167A
LB15DA
LB155A
LB14DA
LB145B
LB137A
LB133A
-10.00
Source: Bloomberg, KBank
KBank THB NEER Index

Jan 1995 = 100
KBank USD/THB FX Reserves / USD Majors model
KBank THB Trade Weighted Index
100
+ 1 std
d
95
90
average
85
-1 std dev
80
KBank USD/THB model
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
105
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
75
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
actual
FX reserves USD/THB model
DXY USD/THB model
USD/THB
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
25
USD/THB
y = -7.2459Ln(x) + 68.36
2
R = 0.8905
45
y = 30.482Ln(x) - 99.163
35
R = 0.7676
30
25
70
50
75
since 2001
50
40
100
FX reserves to USD/THB mapping
22
model
125
current
150
175
2012 forecast
75
80
200
225
250
FX reserves, USD bn
85
90
95
100
DXY to USD/THB mapping

105
110
current
115
120
125
DXY
KBank BOT repo model (model not updated)
SET forward dividend yield vs. 10yr bond yield
%
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
actual
08
09
10
11
%
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
12
00
01
02
03
04
05
10yr yields
model
06
07
Thai inflation parameters
Thai contribution to GDP growth
y oy
% yoy/ contribution
25%
15
20%
10%
10
11
5%
0%
-5
-5%
-10%
-15%
Jan-05
-10
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
CPI yoy
Jan-09
Jan-10
PPI yoy
Jan-11
Jan-12
-15
1Q09
Core CPI yoy
3Q09
Priv ate consumption
Gov ernment C onsumption
Gross fix ed capital formation
Inv entory change
N et ex ports
GDP y oy
1Q10
3Q10
Source: CEIC, KBank
Source: NESDB, KBank
Implied forward curve: swaps
Implied forward curve: TGBs
%
4.00
Implied forward rate shifts (IRS)
4.50
4.00
3.75
3.50
3.50
3.00
3.25
2.50
3.00
1Q11
3Q11
Bond yields implied curve shifts
tenor (yrs)
0
Apr-12
09
10
15%
33
08
SET forward dividend yields
3
Jul-12
5
Oct-12
7
Mar-13
9
tenor (yrs)
10
Apr-12
5
Jul-12
9
Oct-12
10
11
12
13
Apr-13
14
US 2yr yields and implied forward
US 5yr yields and implied forward

%
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
2
1
0.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0
00
2yr yields, %
01
02
03
04
implied forwards
05 06 07
5yr yields, %
KBank EUR/THB model
KBank JPY/THB model

EUR/THB
56.0
54.0
52.0
50.0
48.0
46.0
44.0
42.0
40.0
38.0
36.0
34.0
01
02
03
04
05
06
actual
08
09
10
11
01
12
02
03
04
05
model
KBank GBP/THB model
KBank CNY/THB model

GBP/THB
68.0
63.0
58.0
53.0
48.0
43.0
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
actual
09
10
11
15
08
09
10
11
12
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
10
11
12
model
KBank AUD/THB model

THB/VND
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
AUD/THB
35.0
33.0
31.0
29.0
27.0
25.0
23.0
21.0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
actual
07
actual
KBank THB/VND model
44
02
model
14
CNY/THB
01
12
13
model
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
73.0
01
06
actual
78.0
09 10 11 12
implied forwards
JPY/THB
43.0
41.0
39.0
37.0
35.0
33.0
31.0
29.0
27.0
25.0
07
08
08
09
10
11
12
01
02
03
model
04
05
06
07
actual
08
09
model

20 ?
20 1.45
2
20
2010
Kobsidthi Silpachai, CFA - Kasikornbank

kobsidthi.s@kasikornbank.com
Nalin Chutchotitham Kasikornbank
nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
Amonthep Chawla, Ph.D. Kasikornbank
amonthep.c@kasikornbank.com
Puttikul Ackarachalanonth - Kasikornbank
puttikul.a@kasikornbank.com

() () 13
13 Standard & Poors (S&P)
13 13
13
10
QE3
3
8
S&P 500
10
1.
2.
Source: cagle.com
Source: cagle.com
55
5

1990
3. ...
?
'000
600
4.30
4.10
3.90
3.70
3.50
3.30
3.10
2.90
2.70
2.50
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
Jan-07
4.
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
non farm payroll - actual
Jan-11
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
09
Jan-12
10
10yr UST, % , right
survey
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank
11
12
S&P 500 index, left
5 /
229,000 1 1,000 (1 = 159 )
() (
) BP
2010 1.383 1.068
5. /
'000 contracts
320
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
-40
-80
2007
NYMEX crude oil futures
0.25%
140
0.20%
160
140
120
100
0.15%
100
80
60
40
20
2008
$/barrel
160
120
2009
Crude oil futures, right axis ($ / barrel)
66
6.
2010
2011
2012
Net Long / Short, left axis ('000 contracts)
80
0.10%
60
40
0.05%
20
0.00%
0
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
oil futures contract / proven reserves, left
front month crude oil futures, right
(Fukushima Daiichi)
(Chernobyl)

(Says law)
"" "
?" 7
( X)
( Y)
(polynomial function)
() 100

(trend line)
7.
...?
non-farm payroll change, '000
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100 30
40
50
60
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
-800
-900
-1000
8.
CPI, reindexed, Jan 2000 = 100
155
US
145
crude oil, USD/bbl
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
135
391.40625
125
115
y = 0.0847x + 98.514
y = -0.3029x + 60.439x - 2920.8

2
R = 0.6625
105
R = 0.802
95
0
100
200
300

(participation
rate) 9
(%yoy ) (CPI %yoy)
77
7
400
500
600
Oil, reindexed, Jan 2000 = 100
10 CPI

9.
10.
US CPI index
230
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
y = 7.6694x + 46.594
225
R = 0.9076
220
215
210
Rise in CPI is unsustainable without a

pickup in hourly earnings
205
200
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
195
20
average hourly earnings, % YoY
20.5
21
21.5
22
22.5
23
23.5
US average hourly earnings, $ per hour
US CPI, % YoY

CPI
2000
11. :
160
Thailand
12. :
110
150
108
140
106
130
China
104
120
110
y = 0.0974x + 93.956
100
R = 0.8119
102
y = 0.0161x + 98.894
100
R = 0.4828
98
90
96
80
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
100
200
300
( 11, 12, 15 - 20) (regression

line) (elasticity)
88
8
400
500
600
12 40%

( )
? CPI ()

0.0974
+10% 0.974%

13 ( MAS 2011)
2004
( CPI)
(
)

99
9
13.
( CPI)
118
116
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
above trend inflation

y = 0.3367x + 97.777
2
R = 0.9632
below trend inflation

# of months
0
Jan-03
12
Jan-04
18
24
30
Jul-05
36
42
48
54
14. ....
4,500
4,300
4,100
3,900
3,700
3,500
3,300
3,100
2,900
2,700
2,500
00
60
Jul-07
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
15.
16.

165

101
Korea
155
Japan
100
145
99
135
98
125
115
y = 0.1021x + 98.802
2
R = 0.7071
105
95
97
y = -0.0021x + 98.651
2
96
R = 0.0652
95
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
100
200
300
400
500
600
17.
18.

140
Malaysia

130
135
120
125
115
120
115
y = 0.0761x + 95.654
110
R = 0.751
105
110
y = 0.0557x + 95.619
105
R = 0.6307
100
100
95
95
0
100
200
10
Singapore
125
130
1010
11
outstanding public debt,THB bn
300
400
500
600
100
200
300
400
500
600
19.
350
20.
215
Indonesia
Philipines
195
300
250
175
391.40625
155
200
y = 0.3664x + 90.581
2
150
R = 0.7208
100
135
y = 0.1957x + 94.017
115
R = 0.7397
95
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
100
200
300
400
500
600
....?
(.) .

21
12
.
(output gap) +2.3% 4Q12

21.
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1% 00
-2%
-3%
-4%
01
02
03
04
05
06
TH CPI gap vs. trend

1111
11
07
08
09
policy rate
10
11
12
22. .
6%
15%
5%
10%
4%
5%
3%
0%
3
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
2%
-5%
1%
-10%
0%
-15%
0
Output Gap
implied by BOT GDP forecast
policy rate, % , right axis
( )

2011 27% 1,641
2011 16% 750

23.
111
211
311
411
511
611
711
811
Bhumibol dam levels, mn cubic meters

Source: EGAT
911
1011
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
11- 12- 111 11 12
24.
200
180
160
140
120
100
212
312
412
80
00
01
02
03
Sirikit dam levels, mn cubic meters
04
05
06
production index
2011 4.57
4
2011 2.35 1995
1.0 2005 8.1
Eyjafjallajkull 2010

?
.
. 2011:
1212
12
07
08
09
10
11
12
3.50% (?)

25bp 1 (1yr x 1yr implied forward)
steepener
26
2-10 3.0% 26
( rich/cheap model) 2-10
3.0% 2-10s 66bps
48bps 86bps 3.25%
steeper

25.
26. repo rate 2-10s IRS
% change : 1yr rate, 1yr from now

1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
-0.25
ID
US
TH
KR
MY
CH
UK
-0.50
% change : 1yr rate, 1yr from now
EU
SG
AU
2 - 10 spreads, bps
450
400
y = -66.025x + 328.25
2
350
R = 0.5576
300
250
200
150
100
83.5
50
0
-501.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25
BOT repo - policy rate, %
: QE3
Operation
Twist

LTRO
1313
13
3 27
QE QE
/ /
27.
28. /
3,500
USD/THB
37
3,000
36
y = -4E-06x + 42.898
35
2,500
R = 0.6039
34
2,000
33
1,500
32
1,000
31
500
30
06
07
08
09
Fed's balance sheet, USD bn
10
11
12
29
1,500,000
2895849
1,750,000
2,000,000
2,250,000
2,500,000
2,750,000 3,000,000
Fed balance sheet, USD mn
ECB balance sheet, EUR bn
29. /
30. /
USD/SGD
1.70
y = -2E-07x + 1.9588
2
1.60
R = 0.7641
105.0
100.0
1.50
y = -2E-05x + 133.16
95.0
1.40
R = 0.7897
90.0
85.0
1.30
2895849
1.20
1.10
1,500,000
USD/JPY
110.0
2895849
80.0
75.0
1,750,000
2,000,000
2,250,000
2,500,000
2,750,000 3,000,000
70.0
1,500,000
1,750,000
2,000,000
2,250,000
2,500,000
2,750,000 3,000,000
31. /
32. /
USD/MYR
4.0
y = -5E-07x + 4.5866
3.8
R = 0.6733
3.6
3.4
3.2
2895849
3.0
2.8
1,500,000
1,750,000
2,000,000
1414
14
2,250,000
2,500,000
2,750,000 3,000,000
USD/PHP
51
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
1,500,000
y = -5E-06x + 58.196
2
R = 0.7203
2895849
1,750,000
2,000,000
2,250,000
2,500,000
2,750,000 3,000,000
M2 QE3

GDP

M2
M1
M1 ()
M2 (M1 1 )
" "

M2 GDP 1.35
M2 GDP M2
GDP 0.54
.... ""
?
33. M2 GDP
Real GDP, USD bn
17000
34. M2 GDP
Real GDP, USD bn
17000
15000
15000
13000
13000
y = 1.3512x + 3821.9
2
11000
y = 1.3512x + 3821.9
2
9000
R = 0.961
7000
y = 0.5407x + 8279
2
R = 0.7696
9000
5000
0
1000
2000
15
11000
7000
5000
1515
R = 0.961
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
M2 money supply, USD bn
1000 2000
3000
4000
5000 6000
7000
8000 9000 10000 11000

M2 money supply, USD bn
Mitt
Romney Rick Santorum Newt Gingrich Ron Paul
()

Ben and Co.()
35.
36. M2 10% yoy

14
400
M2 growth has peaked this cycle?
12
350
Bush vs. Gore
300
10
250
200
150
100
50
0
92
96
Rep. Electoral votes
00
04
08
81
83
85
87
89
91
Dem. Electoral votes
93
95
97
M2% YoY
FOMC QE3
FOMC :
M2
M2 M2

M2
M2 10%
M2 10%
M2 GDP

Operation Twist
M2 QE3

/ 29.50 2012
( 3 )
1616
16
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
38. / 30
09
10
11
12
model
39.
Thai export destinations
Latest data (USD mn)
Japan
1,777
USA
as % of
total
9.5
vs 1 mth
earlier
2%
vs 3 mth
earlier
-17%
vs 6 mth
earlier
-20%
vs 1yr ago
-4%
-5%
1,687
9.1
8%
-15%
-15%
Canada
130
0.7
3%
-17%
-22%
1%
Mexico
110
0.6
31%
-16%
-2%
25%
-15%
Australia
493
2.6
2%
-33%
-30%
China
2,036
10.9
12%
-31%
-8%
-3%
Hong Kong
1,562
8.4
116%
-8%
1%
-2%
Indonesia
803
4.3
24%
-13%
-10%
29%
Philippines
309
1.7
-26%
-32%
-24%
-1%
South Korea
310
1.7
7%
-27%
-38%
-5%
EU Countries
1,672
9.0
21%
-27%
-24%
-14%
other ASEAN Countries
4,287
23.0
6%
-17%
-11%
16%
781
4.2
33%
-19%
-22%
-2%
2,664
14.3
66%
-157%
23%
2%
18,621
100.0
20%
22%
-11%
1%
Middle East Countries

Others
Total
Source: Bloomberg
1717
17
USD/THB
actual
08
USD/MYR
07
USD/HKD
06
USD/INR
05
USD/IDR
04
USD/KRW
03
USD/TWD
02
30 day vols
USD/CNY
01
%
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
USD/PHP
KBank USD/THB model
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
USD/SGD
37. KBank /

10% 2006 Q3 6% 2011 Q4

10%
2006 Q3 6% 2011 Q4
2008-2009 8%

1818
18
40.
41.
% yoy
10
65
consensus
forecast
7
60
6
5
55
6
5
Sep-06
50
2
Jan-07
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
India's budget balance (left, %GDP)
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
India's general gov ernment debt (right, %GDP)

10% 2010
2011 6%
(RBI)
7.5%

6%

42.
43.
12.0
20
10.0
15
8.0
10
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-5
-2.0
Jan-09
-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
India's central bank rate (% )

1919
19
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-09
Jul-09
India's wholesale price index (% yoy)
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
India's industrial production (% yoy)

Jul-11
Jan-12

1997

44.
45.
100
80
4.0
60
3.5
3.0
40
2.5
2.0
20
0
1.5
1.0
-20
-40
-60
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
India's merchandise exports (% yoy)

Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
0.5
0.0
Jan-06
Jan-07
India's merchandise imports (% yoy)
Jan-08
Jan-09

Sensex

Sensex
2020
20
Jan-10
India's current account deficit (% GDP)
Jan-11
46.
47.
USD mn
25,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
SENSEX Index
Jul-11
Jan-12
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
21
Jan-11
Net foreign equity investment (cumulative from Jan 1999)

?
?

3
RBI

1991

RBI

?
2121
Jan-10
Jan-12
48.
49.
USD mn
USD mn
350,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
300,000
2,500,000
250,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
200,000
1,000,000
150,000
500,000
0
China
Japan
US
Taiwan
Brazil
Korea
India
Singapore Thailand Malaysia Indonesia
100,000
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
RBI

RBI

NRI
2222
22
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
50.
51. USD/INR INR/THB
60
50
55
0.5
50
0.6
45
0.7
40
0.8
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-80
35
Jan-84
Jan-88
Jan-92
Jan-96
Jan-00
Jan-04
Jan-08
Jan-12
0.9
Jan-07
Jan-08
USD/INR
Jan-09
Jan-10
USD/INR (left)
Jan-11
Jan-12
INR/THB (right, inv erted)

52.
53.
USD mn
USD mn
800
700
400
600
500
200
300
100
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-02
0
-100
-200
Oct-03
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Exports to Thailand
Source: CEIC, KBank
2323
23
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Imports from Thailand
Oct-10
Oct-11
-300
-400
Oct-02
Oct-03
Source: CEIC, KBank
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10 Oct-11
54.
55.
USD mn
USD mn
1,200
600
1,000
500
800
400
600
300
400
200
200
100
0
Machinery
Plastic
Organic
Electrical
Rubber
Vehicles
Pearls
Aluminium
Iron & Steel
Pearls
Copper
Vehicles
Machinery
Chemicals Machinery
2010
Source: CEIC, KBank
2011
2010
2011
Source: CEIC, KBank

/
!
2424
24
Organic
Electrical
Chemicals Machinery
Food
(nominal GDP)

()
4 :

(ASEAN Economic Community: AEC) 2015

1. IMF (nominal GDP):
World
US
EU
China
Japan
UK
Brazil
ASEAN
India
Canada
Russia
South Korea
2010
62,911
14,527
16,242
5,878
5,459
2,250
2,090
1,865
1,632
1,577
1,480
1,014
2011
70,012
15,065
17,960
6,988
5,855
2,481
2,518
2,112
1,843
1,759
1,885
1,164
2012
73,741
15,495
18,543
7,744
6,126
2,604
2,617
2,328
2,013
1,826
2,117
1,275
2013
77,589
15,991
19,100
8,609
6,249
2,743
2,789
2,535
2,235
1,895
2,342
1,365
2014
81,845
16,623
19,715
9,560
6,440
2,894
2,971
2,756
2,477
1,965
2,570
1,465
2015
86,510
17,399
20,366
10,608
6,611
3,053
3,166
2,995
2,738
2,036
2,811
1,572
2016
91,575
18,251
21,051
11,780
6,783
3,224
3,373
3,253
3,027
2,106
3,088
1,686
Source: IMF, Bloomberg, KBank

(nominal GDP)

(IMF)
nominal GDP 1,865 2010
3,253 2016 74%
2010 2016 ( BRICS)
3.0% 2010
2525
25
3.6% 2016

( 2)
2. IMF (nominal GDP): GDP
US
EU
China
Japan
UK
Brazil
ASEAN
India
Canada
Russia
South Korea
2010
23.1%
25.8%
9.3%
8.7%
3.6%
3.3%
3.0%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
1.6%
2011
21.5%
25.7%
10.0%
8.4%
3.5%
3.6%
3.0%
2.6%
2.5%
2.7%
1.7%
2012
21.0%
25.1%
10.5%
8.3%
3.5%
3.5%
3.2%
2.7%
2.5%
2.9%
1.7%
2013
20.6%
24.6%
11.1%
8.1%
3.5%
3.6%
3.3%
2.9%
2.4%
3.0%
1.8%
2014
20.3%
24.1%
11.7%
7.9%
3.5%
3.6%
3.4%
3.0%
2.4%
3.1%
1.8%
2015
20.1%
23.5%
12.3%
7.6%
3.5%
3.7%
3.5%
3.2%
2.4%
3.2%
1.8%
2016
19.9%
23.0%
12.9%
7.4%
3.5%
3.7%
3.6%
3.3%
2.3%
3.4%
1.8%
Source: IMF, Bloomberg, KBank
56. 2000
57. 2000
Europe, 10.51%
Europe, 16.30%
Japan, 24.68%
Japan, 14.72%
US, 11.77%
US, 21.33%
China, 4.08%
China, 5.44%
Other, 29.94%
Other, 23.38%
India, 0.81%
ASEAN, 19.38%
ASEAN, 16.65%
Source: CEIC, KBank
Source: CEIC, KBank
58. 2011
59. 2011
India, 1.00%
Europe, 7.82%
Japan, 10.52%
Europe, 10.55%
Japan, 18.45%
US, 5.85%
China, 11.97%
US, 9.55%
India, 2.27%
China, 13.38%
Other, 37.02%
Other, 31.40%
Source: CEIC, KBank
2626
26
ASEAN, 23.73%
ASEAN, 16.16%
Source: CEIC, KBank
India, 1.32%
2000
19.38%

2011 6.90 ( 229.89 )
1.64 ( 54.56
) 23.73% 11.97%
10.55% 10.52% 9.55%
2000 2011 2000-2011

16.65% 2000 18.32% 2006 16.16% 2011
2011
6.97 ( 232.46 ) 1.13
( 37.55 ) 16.16%
(+)
0.95
( 31.76 ) 2000 2.76 ( 92.11
) 2011
60.
61.
20%
25%
18%
16%
20%
14%
12%
15%
10%
8%
10%
6%
4%
5%
2%
0%
0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Singapore
Malay sia
Source: CEIC, KBank
2727
27
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Cambodia
My anmar
Laos
Brunei
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Singapore
Malay sia
Source: CEIC, KBank
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Cambodia
My anmar
Laos
Brunei
1995

()
62. 12 FDI
USD mn
140
63. FDI
USD mn
350
TH FDI by sector (12-month average)
120
300
100
250
80
200
60
150
40
100
20
50
12-month average
0
-20
Dec-2005
-50
Dec-2006
Dec-2007
Dec-2008
Chemicals & Chemical Products

Electrical Equipment
Dec-2009
Dec-2010
Dec-2011
Computer, Electronic & Optical Products

Motor Vehicles, Trailers & Semi Trailers
Source: CEIC, KBank
-100
Dec-2005
Dec-2006
ASEAN
Dec-2007
Dec-2008
EU
Dec-2009
US
Dec-2010
Dec-2011
Japan
Source: CEIC, KBank
(FDI) (
)

1,328 ( 49.40%
) 694,539 ( 76.30%
)
64.
USD mn
300
12-month average
300
250
150
100
100
50
50
0
Dec-2006
Dec-2007
Malaysia
Source: CEIC, KBank
28
12-month average
200
150
2828
USD mn
250
200
-50
Dec-2005
65. FDI
Dec-2008
Dec-2009
Dec-2010
Dec-2011
0
Dec-2005
Dec-2006
Dec-2007
Singapore
Singapore
Source: CEIC, KBank
Dec-2008
Dec-2009
Dec-2010
ASEAN
Dec-2011

12
( 2011) 83.01
6.98
12 1

67.
DIA
66. (DIA)
THB mn
(35,000)
12-month average
(30,000)
(25,000)
(20,000)
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
0
5,000
Dec-2005 Dec-2006
ASEAN
Japan
British Virgin Islands
Source: CEIC, KBank
Dec-2007 Dec-2008
EU
China
Cayman Islands
Dec-2009
Dec-2010
US
India
Dec-2011
THB mn
(8,000)
(7,000)
(6,000)
(5,000)
(4,000)
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
Dec-2005 Dec-2006
Cambodia
Myanmar
12-month average
Dec-2007 Dec-2008
Indonesia
Philippines
Source: CEIC, KBank
(FDI) (DIA)

66
(DIA) 124.07 2011
3
4 ( 12 67)

2009 2011
2929
29
Dec-2009
Laos
Singapore
Dec-2010
Dec-2011
Malaysia
Vietnam
68. DIA
THB mn
(15,000)
69. DIA
THB mn
(2,000)
12-month average
12-month average
(1,500)
(10,000)
(1,000)
(5,000)
(500)
0
5,000
Dec-2005
0
Dec-2006 Dec-2007 Dec-2008 Dec-2009 Dec-2010
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Wholesale& Retail Trade, Repair of Motor Vehicles& Motorcycles
Financial & Insurance Activities
Source: CEIC, KBank
Dec-2011
500
Dec-2008
Dec-2009
Food Products (RHS)

Textiles (LHS)
Computer, Electronic & Optical Products (LHS)
Machinery & Equipment n.e.c. (LHS)
Source: CEIC, KBank

13 2007
4 1)
2) 3) 4)
3030
30
Dec-2010
Dec-2011
Beverages (LHS)
Chemicals & Chemical Products (LHS)
Electrical Equipment (LHS)
Product
Import duties
Country (Target)
Product in Priority Integration Sectors
0%
ASEAN-6 (2007)
2
CLMV (2012)
All products (except those in Sensitive

3
and Highly Sensitive Lists )
0%
ASEAN-6 (2010)
CLMV (2015)
Remaining products in Sensitive List
0%-5%
ASEAN-6 (1 Jan 2010)

Vietnam (1 Jan 2013)
Lao, Myanmar (1 Jan 2015)
Cambodia (1 Jan 2017)

5 2010 2012
2015 (
2018 )

4 2010 [ e-ASEAN
() ]
2013 2015
() 51%
2008 70% 2010 4
49% 2008 51% 2010 70% 2013
49% 2008 51%
2010 70% 2015
7
2008 2009
2012 2015
1
Priority Integration Sectors are agro based products, air travel, automotives, e-ASEAN, electronics, fisheries, healthcare, rubber based products, textiles and
apparels, tourism, wood based products and logistics
2
CLMV = Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam
3
Sensitive List varies among countries coffee, potato, copra, cut flower (Thailand); coffee, tea (Brunei); chicken, lived fish, some vegetables and fruits, some plants
(Cambodia); lived animal, beef, pork, chicken, some vegetables and fruits, rice, tobacco (Laos); some lived animals, pork, chicken, egg, some vegetables and fruits,
tobacco (Malaysia); pea, coffee, sugar, silk, cotton (Myanmar); some lived animals, pork, chicken, cassava, corn (Philippines); some lived animals, chicken, egg, some
plants, cooked meat, sugar (Vietnam)
Highly Sensitive List includes rice (Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines) and sugar (Indonesia and Philippines)
Source: Translated from Department of Trade Negotiations (DTN)
3131
31
2003
(Roadmap for Monetary and Financial Integration of ASEAN RIA-Fin)

(ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint)
RIA-Fin

RIA-Fin
S&P
ASEAN Regional Scale Rating

2 Working Committee on Financial Services Liberalization (WC-FSL) Working
Committee on Capital Account Liberalization (WC-CAL)

3232
32
2
2 10 60bp

IRS
1 2

(
. )

2
2 10 60 bp
( 3 2555)
1.78 (< 10 )

2
3333
33
70.
71. ..
Thai government bond yield curve
%
4.00
Government bond yield curve
%
4.25
4.00
3.80
3.75
3.60
3.50
3.40
3.25
3.20
3.00
3.00
1y
2y
3y
4y
03-Apr-12
5y
6y
7y
29-Feb-12
8y
9y
10y
TTM
2.75
Jul-11
Sep-11
policy rate
Nov-11
2y
1)

27bp 53bp 66bp 2 5 10
5.0% (.
. 5.5-5.7%)
(.. 1993 -2011)
2) 6
.
.
4.00%
(-1.00%) . ()

3)
2-10 spread
( 2-8 )

3434
34
Jan-12
5y
Mar-12
10y
USDTHB
72. (
)
THB bn
180
163
163
160
128.5
127
140
120
100
84 79
79
75
73
71
80
48
45.0
60
40
28
24
40 28
19
16
10
20
1
-1
0
-20
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
73.
THB bn
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Feb-10
foreign net-buy in THB bonds (billion baht)

Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Source: ThaiBMA, KBank
74.
75. 2-10
4.25
bps
200
4.00
150
Jun-10
foreign holding in Thai fixed income, THB bn
Thailand
Malaysia
South Korea
3.75
Government bond 2-10 spreads
100
3.50
50
3.25
3.00
Tenor
2.75
0.1
0.3
0.5
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
0
Jun-11
-50
Aug-11
South Korea
Oct-11
Thailand
4)

2555
.

3535
35
Dec-11
Indonesia
Feb-12
Apr-12
Malaysia
3 .

1.54
1.84
1.78
76.
77.
THB bn
% of annual budget
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Bond issuance by quarter (fiscal year)
200
154
151.6
150
125
FY2009
7.5
Oct
13.9
Nov
Source: FPO, KBank
21.2
27.8
34.4
100
FY2010
75
FY2011
50
FY2012
25
90
94.5
103.5
32
0
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
3636
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
Source: PDMO, KBank (estimates based on issuance of only THB50bn of 10 year bonds)
5)
1
2
SET Index KLCI ()
JCI () S&P 500 4

correction ()
Q.E. 3

2-3
( 13 )
QE3
1
Q.E. 3
36
177.5
165
175
78.
%
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
08
09
3yr yields
10
10yr yields
11
12
79. 10
S&P 500
S&P Index
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
Mar-10
(% )
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
Sep-10
Mar-11
S&P Index
SET forward dividend yields


10 4.00%

IRS
( reference rate THBFIX 6m)

(fixed rate)
THBFIX 6m THBFIX 6m implied 6

0.18% 6
3737
37
Sep-11
10yr Treasury yield
Mar-12
80. 2-10
Policy rate
bp
2/10 spread bond
81. 2-10
IRS
%
2/10 spread bond
7.0
400
300.0
6.0
350
250.0
5.0
300
250
4.0
200
3.0
150
2.0
100
1.0
50
0.0
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
2/10 spread IRS
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
82.
6
83. IRS
bp
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
6m6m bond change

Oct-11
Jan-12
6m6m IRS change
Apr-12
%
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
38
Jan-12
IRS yield curve change
0.3
0.2
0.8
5-Apr-12
1.0
2.0
3.0
4-Apr-12

LB21DA LB416A .

B/C ratio

3
3.62% (+3bp ) B/C ratio
3.66x
3838
Jul-11
4.0
5.0
7.0
5-Mar-12
10.0
12.0
15.0
yrs
3.
Auction
Date
Symbol
Tenor
(yr)
Amt. (Bt mn)
Accepted
amt (Bt mn)
Accepted
range (%)
Avg. Yield
(%)
Bidcoverage
21-Mar
LB21DA
10
15,000
5,110
3.842 - 3.863
3.854000
2.37
28-Mar
LB176A
15,000
15,000
3.648 - 3.668
3.658200
2.78
04-Apr
LB155A
15,000
15,000
3.612 - 3.625
3.620200
3.66
04-Apr
LB416A
30
8,000
4,436
4.350 - 4.450
4.389800
1.60
Source: ThaiBMA
(fixed rate P/N)

P/N 12 25 40 4 4-6
P/N

+10 bp +20 bp ( 3
3.95% 12 4.22% 25 4.43% 40 )
P/N 30

10 4.00%
4. ( 4 KBank)
tenor
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
sum
PDMO
Budget
5Y
15
16
15
16
18
20
15
31
16
38
100
100
7Y
11
12
10
12
11
23
10
23
65
65
10Y
5.11*
17
15
13
5.11
32
13
50.11*
60
15Y
10
10
17
35
35
20Y
16
12
35
35
30Y
7.5
8.5
7.5
16.5
30
30
50Y
10
25
25
4Y FRN
10
18
16
50
50
CPI linked
15
15
15
15
30
45
45
3Y
16
15
10
16
34
50
50
Amortized
bond
30
30
30
30
Total
32
41
45.5
49.11
48
57
57.5
47
57
50
32
151.61
177.5
154
515.11*
525
Bracketed in RED shows KBanks own estimates based on PDMO initial documents and recent issuance
patterns.
* PDMO sold only THB5.11bn of the planned THB15bn issuance of LB21DA in March. PDMO Director-general
said that the shortage of the funding needs may be supplemented with other tools. Hence, issuance of 10-year
bonds may be reduced by about THB10bn for the year, bring total issuance to THB515bn.
3939
39
This page has been left blank intentionally
4040
40
2555
YoY
KResearch
kr.bd@kasikornresearch.com
0.6-0.7

1.
Units: YoY %, or indicated otherwise
Composite Private Consumption Index
Sales Volume of Benzene and Gasohol
Value-added Tax at 1995 prices
Imports of Consumer Goods at 1995 prices
Passenger Car Sales
Motorcycle Sales
Private Investment Index (PII)
Sales Volume of Domestic Cement
Sales Volume of Commercial Cars
Imports of Capital Goods at 1995 prices
Value of BOI Applications

Manufacturing Production Index
Industrial Capacity Utilization

Agriculture Production Index
Agriculture Price Index

Exports (in $)
Unit Value
Volume
Imports (in $)
Unit Value
Volume
Trade Balance ($ millions)
Current Account ($ millions)
Broad Money
Headline CPI
USD/THB (Reference Rate)
2011
3.6
-1.4
10.2
13.4
4.0
6.4
7.4
4.6
-4.4
16.3
59.5
-9.3
58.1
3.2
12.1
16.4
5.6
10.2
24.7
10.1
13.3
23,502
11,869
15.2
3.8
30.494
1Q
4.5
1.4
10.8
20.6
58.9
14.6
16.8
3.6
32.0
32.4
7.4
-2.1
62.6
11.5
25.6
27.4
6.7
19.4
26.4
8.9
16.0
7,986
5,933
13.2
3.0
30.556
2011
2Q
4.5
0.5
13.4
15.2
0.6
17.9
8.1
1.4
3.7
14.3
62.7
-2.5
59.1
7.3
17.8
18.3
7.0
10.6
27.4
11.5
14.2
6,846
948
16.3
4.1
30.272
3Q
4.2
-0.8
10.6
15.1
22.9
13.5
8.6
9.9
17.1
11.5
173.3
1.8
64.5
-1.6
7.7
27.3
6.4
19.7
33.4
11.7
19.4
7,676
3,146
16.2
4.1
30.127
4Q
1.2
-6.5
6.6
4.0
-44.4
-19.6
-3.3
4.1
-53.4
9.3
43.1
-34.2
46.3
-1.7
-0.6
-5.2
2.5
-7.5
12.2
8.3
3.7
993
1,843
15.2
4.0
31.022
YTD
4.3
1.0
12.7
6.7
-3.6
0.0
4.8
4.5
29.7
21.3
133.1
-9.4
60.4
0.0
-14.1
-2.3
1.1
-3.4
2.8
6.3
-3.3
2,575
2,073
13.6
3.4
31.001
Sources: BOT, MOC, OAE, and OIE
5
2555
(YoY) 5
1.2 6.1 2555 (
4141
41
2012
Jan
1.9
0.3
6.0
-1.5
-9.8
-7.4
0.6
7.2
29.1
5.3
198.9
-15.0
58.5
-0.5
-12.1
-6.1
1.2
-7.2
-2.5
6.4
-8.4
522
981
15.9
3.38
31.578
Feb
6.6
1.6
19.3
15.3
2.7
6.8
8.8
2.0
30.2
40.7
89.7
-3.4
62.3
0.5
-16.1
1.2
1.1
0.1
8.2
6.1
1.9
2,052
1,092
13.6
3.35
30.728
Mar
3.45
30.696
(MoM) )
3.5 (YoY) 9.6
2555

1.
2.
60%
40
50%
30
40%
20
15,000
30%
10,000
20%
10%
5,000
0
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Ex ports
% YoY for Ex ports
Sep-11
% YoY
20,000
% YoY
Export Value (USD Million)
25,000
10
0
0%
-10
-10%
-20
-20%
-30
Oct-09
Dec-11
Ex ports (ex cluding gold)

% YoY for Ex ports ex clud. Gold
Sources: BOT, MOC, KResearch
Jun-11
Export Price
Aug-11
Oct-11
Import Price
Dec-11
Export Volume
Feb-12
Import Volume
Sources: BOT, KResearch
15.1 (YoY)
20.3 2555
13.6 (YoY) 4.0 2555
4.7 (YoY) 8.8
( 6.4 (YoY)
8.5 2555) ( 24.7 (YoY)
13.4 )
YoY
100
80
60
40
20
0
(20)
(40)
(60)
100
80
60
20
0
Apr-11
Agricultural
Processed Agri.
Vehicle
42
40
(20)
Dec-10 Feb-11
4242
4.
% YoY
% YoY
3.
Jun-11
Aug-11
Fishery
Electronic
Oct-11
Dec-11 Feb-12
Manufacturing
Electrical Appliance
(40)
Dec-10 Feb-11
Japan
Sources BOT, MOC, KResearch
Apr-11
U.S.
Jun-11
Aug-11
EU (15)
Oct-11
ASEAN
Dec-11 Feb-12
China
2555
8.2 ( YoY) 2.5
2555 ( 1.9
(YoY) 8.4 2555)

6.

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
Dec-10 Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Imports
Raw & Intermediate Goods
Vehicles & Parts
Oct-11
Dec-11 Feb-12
Consumer Goods
Capital Goods
External Balances (USD million)
% YoY
5.
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
(1,000)
(2,000)
(3,000)
(4,000)
Feb-11
May-11
Trade
Aug-11
Service
Nov-11
Feb-12
Current Account Balance
2555 2.05
522 2555
960 459

1.09
981 2555
2500
80
2000
60
40
1500
20
1000
500
-20
-40
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Foreign Tourist Arrivals (lhs)
Sources: TAT, BOT, KResearch
4343
43
8. 2555
% YoY
No. of Foreign Tourist Arrivals

(Million)
7.
Nov-11
Feb-12
% YoY (rhs)
Sources: TAT, BOT, KResearch

2554 (
)
2.0 (YoY) 7.7 2555
69.4 64.9 2555
2555 (MPI) 3.4

(YoY) 15.0 (YoY) 2555

3.2 ( YoY) 8.5 ( YoY)
(
) ()
2555
97.0 81.9 2555
13.3 2554
18.6 (YoY)
29.3 (YoY) 2555
(HDDs)

19.6 (YoY) 4.2 (YoY) 2555
( )

2555 62.3
58.5 2555
4444
44
10.
120
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
100
% CPU
% YoY of MPI
9.
80
60
40
20
0
Oct-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
MPI
exports < 30%
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
30% < exports < 60%
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
CPU
exports > 60%
Sources: OIE, KResearch
Vehicles
Motorcycle
HDD
ICs and Semiconductors
Sources: OIE, KResearch
2555
(BSI) (TISI)
100.9 99.6 2555 6
100
(CCI) 2555

12.
CCI & TISI
120
240
110
200
55
100
50
90
45
80
40
70
35
60
Sep-10
BSI
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
BSI (Expected for the next 3 mths)
Sources: BOT, UTCC, FTI, KResearch
Dec-11
CCI
Mar-12
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
220
PII and PCI
BSI
60
% YoY
11.
180
160
140
120
100
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Priv ate Consumption Index (PCI)-LHS
Commercial Car Sales
Passenger Car Sales
TISI
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Private Investment Index (PII)-LHS
Real Imports of Capit al Goods
Real VAT
2555

(PII) (PCI)
2554
4545
45
PII 8.8 (YoY) 0.6 (YoY)

2555

PCI 6.6 (YoY) 1.9 (YoY)
2555 (
)
2555 (Headline CPI) 3.45 (YoY)

3.25 3.35
2555 0.59
11 (
)
2555 2.77 (YoY)

2.72 2555 2.64
1.5
5.0
1.0
4.0
0.5
3.0
0.0
2.0
-0.5
1.0
-1.0
% YoY
% MoM
13. 2555
0.0
Mar-11
Jul-11
Headline CPI (MoM-lhs)
Headline CPI (YoY-rhs)
Nov-11
Mar-12
Core CPI (MoM-lhs)

Core CPI (YoY-rhs)
Sources: MOC, KResearch
2555 0.6-0.7
300 7
39.5 70 1 2555
300 1 2556
300 2
4646
46

2557 2558

0.8 2555 0.7 2554

14.
15.
. 3/2555
Sources: KResearch Forecast
Sources: KResearch Forecast

2555 0.6-0.7
(
LPG/NGV
32.33
2555 118 ) 2555
3.9 3/2555
4.0 3.0

130
4747
47
2555 4.5
3.6
2.
Sources: KResearch Forecast, as of March 22, 2012

* Gov. Budget in 2012-2013 includes borrowings from the 2012 Executive Decrees

2555
2555

3.45 2.77 (YoY) 2555
()

4848
48
Disclaimer
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or
sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we
believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained
herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
4949
49

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Macro / Multi Asset

Kobsidthi Silpachai, CFA Kasikornbank

Disclaimer: This report

Key Parameters & Forecasts at Year-end

Investment Spending, % YoY

Govt Budget / GDP %

Current Account (USD bn)

CPI % YoY, average

Fed Funds, % year-end

BOT repo, % year-end

Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank, KResearch, KSecurities

KBank Thai Government Bond Rich / Cheap model

Bps (actual YTM vs. model)

Source: Bloomberg, KBank

KBank THB NEER Index

KBank USD/THB FX Reserves / USD Majors model

KBank THB Trade Weighted Index

KBank USD/THB model

Source: Bloomberg, KBank

Source: Bloomberg, KBank

FX reserves USD/THB model

DXY USD/THB model

Source: Bloomberg, KBank

FX reserves to USD/THB mapping

DXY to USD/THB mapping

KBank BOT repo model (model not updated)

SET forward dividend yield vs. 10yr bond yield

Source: Bloomberg, KBank

Source: Bloomberg, KBank

Thai inflation parameters

Thai contribution to GDP growth

Core CPI yoy

Priv ate consumption

Gov ernment C onsumption

Gross fix ed capital formation

Inv entory change

Source: CEIC, KBank

Source: NESDB, KBank

Implied forward curve: swaps

Implied forward curve: TGBs

Implied forward rate shifts (IRS)

Bond yields implied curve shifts

SET forward dividend yields

US 2yr yields and implied forward

US 5yr yields and implied forward

Source: Bloomberg, KBank

Source: Bloomberg, KBank

KBank EUR/THB model

KBank JPY/THB model

KBank GBP/THB model

KBank CNY/THB model

Source: Bloomberg, KBank

KBank AUD/THB model

Source: Bloomberg, KBank

KBank THB/VND model

Source: Bloomberg, KBank

Source: Bloomberg, KBank

Kobsidthi Silpachai, CFA - Kasikornbank

non farm payroll - actual

Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank

S&P 500 index, left

Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, KBank