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Foster McCollum White & Associates & Baydoun Consulting Michigan Poll (June 2012)

Foster McCollum White & Associates & Baydoun Consulting Michigan Poll (June 2012)

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Published by Tom Kludt

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Published by: Tom Kludt on Jun 14, 2012
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07/20/2013

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Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
 1
Michigan General Election Polling Study forPresidential PreferenceWayne County Executive Ficano Scandal ImpactCollective Bargaining RightsPublic Act 4, the Emergency Manager Law Ballot TestAutomated Poll Methodology and StatisticsAggregate ResultsConducted byFoster McCollum White and AssociatesAndBaydoun ConsultingJune 12, 2012By: Eric Foster
 – 
Chief PollsterPresident
 – 
Foster McCollum White and AssociatesBy: Tarek BaydounPresident
 – 
Baydoun Consulting
 
 
Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
 2
Methodology
-
 
Foster McCollum White & Associates, a Political and Governmental Affairs andOrganizational Development consulting firm based in Troy Michigan and BaydounConsulting, a
 
political communications consulting firm based in Dearborn, Michiganconducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered andmost likely November 2012 general election voters to determine their voting andissue preferences on the issue of Presidential preference, collective bargaining rightssupport, Public Act 4 ballot initiative and the impact of Democratic Wayne County
Executive Robert Ficano’s FBI investigation and criminal indictments on President
Obama and Democratic candidates across the Michigan November ballot.- This ten question live call poll survey was conducted on the evening of June 12, 2012between the hours of 6:30 pm and 8:30 pm.- A list-based sample of traditional Michigan high participation registered voters.These voters have participated in a minimum of 70% of the available primary andgeneral election and odd year municipal and county elections in Michigan since 1993.- An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participateonly if they were very likely to vote in the November General Election.- Forty-four thousand nine hundred and ninety-nine (44,999) adults were called, and1,783 respondents participated in the survey. The response rate for this survey was3.96%.- Our list-based sample pool was pre-weighted to the geographical regions and politicalparticipation regions and the congressional districts in Michigan. For reportingpurposes, we will focus our findings on the following issue-based categories:A.
 
Baseline for Michigan Presidential campaign preference.B.
 
Impact of Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano’s scandals on
President Obama and Michigan Democratic candidate campaignsC.
 
Collective bargaining and public employee compensation reformsupport measurementD.
 
Michigan Public Act 4 ballot test question.- The margin of error for this polling sample is 2.32% with a confidence level of 95%.Our polling study produced sub-populations within each of the surveyed electioncontest. Results within the sub-populations will be reported with respect to theindividual cross-tab and sub-population group as it exist.
 
 
Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
 3
Cross tabulation groups for comparison purposes
 
Age
 
Gender
 
Michigan Geographical Voter Regions
 
Major 17 voting counties (Counties combined that traditionally represent75% to 83% of the
total voter participation rate in Michigan’s State
-wideelections)
 
Next 7 Michigan County and Other 59 Michigan County regions
 
Race/Ethnicity
 
Religious affiliation
 – 
Evangelical Christian, Catholic, Baptist, NonEvangelical Christian, Jewish, Muslim and other religious affiliations
 
Voter Political Party Preference
 – 
Democratic, Republican and Independent
 
Michigan Congressional Districts
 
Urban market communities (Detroit, Grand Rapids, Flint, Saginaw andother urban population centers in Michigan)
 
Vote Region
 
(Counties in parentheses)
 – 
 
Upper Peninsula Region - 311,361 Residents
(Gogebic, Ontonagon, Houghton, Keweenaw, Baraga, Iron, Marquette, Alger, Dickinson,Menominee, Delta, Schoolcraft, Luce, Chippewa, Mackinac)
15 counties -18.1% of counties, 3.1
5% of state’s population 89.3% White, 2.18%
African American, 0.72% Asian American, 4.49% Native American, 1.09% LatinoAmerican & 2.20% Other Ethnic American.Projected weight of November General Election Population
 
 – 
3.5%
The Upper Peninsula is traditionally a competitive region. Historically the voters tend toswing between both parties in state and federal election. None of the major 17 countiesare located in the Upper Peninsula.
Northern Lower Peninsula Region
 – 
756,056 Residents
(Emmet, Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Charlevoix, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena,Roscommon, Crawford, Oscoda, Alcona, Iosco, Arenac, Gladwin, Kalkaska, Leelanau,Grand Traverse, Benzie, Manistee, Wexford, Mason, Lake, Osceola, Mecosta, Isabella,Clare, Missaukee and Ogemaw)
29 counties
 – 
 
34.9% of counties 7.65% of state’s population, 93.84% White, 0.96%
African American, 1.27% Native American, 1.84% Latino American, 0.84% AsianAmerican & 1.54% Other Ethnic American.Projected weight of November General Election Population
 
 – 
9.5%
The Northern Lower Peninsula region of Michigan is traditionally a Republican votingpocket. None of the major 17 counties are located in the Northern Lower Peninsula.
 

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Marissa Dendy Griffin added this note
How in the world is this a likely voter poll? ( See page 25). According to the pollster, this is what they expect to see on Election Day: 59% = Over the age of 51, 54% Female/46% Male, 74.5% White/17.5% Black. However, this is what they actually polled: 83% over the age of 51; 60% Female/40% Male; 84% White/9% Black. This poll is much too old and too white. Do better or get out of the biz.

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