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AZ-Sen PPP for Project New America (June 2012)

AZ-Sen PPP for Project New America (June 2012)

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Jun 19, 2012
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06/19/2012

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PPP Surveyed 791 likely Arizona voters from June 4-5 on behalf of 
Project New America 
. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. PNA also conducted an oversample of 529 self-identified independent voters. The independent voter survey has a margin of error of +/-4.3%. Both surveys were conducted through automated telephone interviews with the 
 
option for either Spanish or English.Project New America, formerly Project New West, is a private company that provides cutting edge tools to understand and communicate with a rapidly changing America. PNA develops, conducts aggregates, and disseminates research, messaging and on-going strat 
egic guidance with the nation’s leading progressive
stakeholders. Since 2007, Project New America has conducted over 20 statewide surveys in Arizona.
To: Interested PartiesFrom: Project New AmericaRe: Senate, Presidential Races in Arizona CloseDate: June 19, 2012
For Immediate Release
Strong support from independent voters has Democratic candidates within striking distance of Republicans in Arizona. Recent polling from Project New America (PNA) shows President Obamatrailing Mitt Romney by just 3 points in Arizona, and likely Democratic Senate nominee RichardCarmona trailing likely Republican nominee Jeff Flake by just 2 points.The poll, which surveyed 791 likely Arizona voters from June 4-5, showed Mitt Romney with a 49-46lead over Obama, and Jeff Flake with a 43-41 lead over Richard Carmona. Both races are within thepoll
’s
+/-3.5% margin of error.
“Moderate independent voters make up a
substantial portion of the
Arizona electorate, and it’s verydifficult to win elections without their support,” said Jill Hanauer, President of Project New America.“This poll shows that D
emocrats are gaining ground among independent voters. If this trend continues,
we should expect Arizona to remain competitive through November.”
 PNA also conducted an oversample of 529 self-identified independent voters. The oversample madeclear that the Republican brand is unpopular among this critical group.The 23% of voters who describe themselves as independent from either political party have decidedlynegative opinions of prominent GOP officials. Just 35% of these voters have a positive opinion of Mitt Romney, compared to 53% who have a negative opinion of him. Republican Governor Jan Brewer has asimilar 36-54 approve-disapprove rating among independents.Obama, meanwhile, has a positive 51-43 approval rating among independent voters, who prefer thePresident over Romney by 51-39.
CONTACT: Ethan Axelrod
 
,(303) 953 3378
(See Below for Full Crosstabs)
 
June 4-5, 2012
Survey of 791 Arizona voters
June 4-5, 2012
Survey of 791 Arizona voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-69883020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Arizona Survey Results
Q1
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Barack Obama?45%
Favorable 
........................................................
51%
Unfavorable 
....................................................
4%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q2
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Mitt Romney?43%
Favorable 
........................................................
49%
Unfavorable 
....................................................
8%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q3
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Jan Brewer?43%
Favorable 
........................................................
48%
Unfavorable 
....................................................
9%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q4
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Republicans in the Arizona StateLegislature?37%
Favorable 
........................................................
47%
Unfavorable 
....................................................
16%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q5
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Democrats in the Arizona State Legislature?35%
Favorable 
..............
47%
Unfavorable 
...........
18%
Not sure 
................
Q6
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Planned Parenthood?53%
Favorable 
..............
38%
Unfavorable 
...........
9%
Not sure 
................
Q7
If the November Presidential election were heldtoday, do you plan on voting for DemocratBarack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney?46%
Obama 
..................
49%
Romney 
.................
5%
Undecided 
.............
Q8
If the November U.S. Senate election wereheld today, and the candidates were DemocratRichard Carmona and Republican Jeff Flake,who would you vote for?41%
Richard Carmona 
............................................
43%
Jeff Flake 
........................................................
16%
Undecided 
.......................................................
Q9
In the 2012 election for Arizona StateLegislature in your district, do you think you’llvote for the Democratic candidate or theRepublican candidate?43%
Democratic candidate 
.....................................
45%
Republican candidate 
.....................................
13%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q10
Which ONE of the following statements do youagree with most concerning same-sex couples:Gay and lesbian couples should have thesame legal right to marry as do a man andwoman; Gay and lesbian couples should beallowed to form a civil union giving them thesame legal rights as marriage, but it should notbe called marriage; Or there should be no legalrecognition of a relationship between gay andlesbian couples?41%
Gay couples should have same legal marriage rights as man + woman 
....................
28%
Gay couples should be allowed civil unions but not "marriage" 
...........................................
29%
There should be no legal recognition of gay couples 
...........................................................
1%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q11
If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.50%
Woman 
...........................................................
50%
Man 
.................................................................
 
June 4-5, 2012
Survey of 791 Arizona voters
June 4-5, 2012
Survey of 791 Arizona voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-69883020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Q12
Generally speaking, do you think of yourself asDemocrat, a Republican, an independent or asa member of another political party?30%
Democrat 
........................................................
42%
Republican 
......................................................
23%
Independent 
....................................................
5%
Another Party 
..................................................
Q13
What racial or ethnic group best describesyou? If you are Latino or Hispanic, press 1. IfWhite or Anglo, press 2. If African American,press 3. If Asian, press 4. If something else,press 5.18%
Latino or Hispanic 
...........................................
71%
White or Anglo 
................................................
3%
African American 
.............................................
2%
Asian 
...............................................................
5%
Something else 
..............................................
Q14
If you are 18-29 years old, press 1. If 30-45,press 2. If 46-65, press 3. If older than 65,press 4.12%
18-29 
..............................................................
30%
30-45 
..............................................................
38%
46-65 
..............................................................
20%
Older than 65 
..................................................
Q15
Which of the following best describes thehighest level of education you completed:some high school but did not finish, high schoolgraduate, some college but did not finish, two-year college degree, four-year college degree,some graduate work, or post-graduate degree?If some high school but did not finish, press 1.If high school graduate, press 2. If somecollege but did not finish, press 3. If two-yearcollege degree, press 4. If four-year collegedegree, press 5. If some graduate work, press6. If post-graduate degree, press 7. If you don’tcare to say, press 8.5%
Did not finish high school 
................................
11%
High school graduate 
......................................
24%
Some college but did not finish 
.......................
9%
Two-year college degree 
.................................
20%
Four-year college degree 
................................
8%
Some postgraduate work 
................................
21%
Postgraduate degree 
......................................
2%
Don't care to say 
.............................................
Q16
Language of Interview97%
English 
............................................................
3%
Spanish 
...........................................................

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