MEMORANDUM

TO: FROM: RE: DATE: Interested Parties Jefrey Pollock & Joe Hickerson PA 12 Survey Results June 19, 2012

The results of our survey of likely voters in Pennsylvanias 12th Congressional District show Congressman Mark Critz positioned to build on his come-from-behind primary win and hold this swing district for Democrats.

P O LL RE S ULTS
If the election for Congress was today, 46% of likely voters say they would vote for Mark Critz, and 36% would vote for Keith Rothfus. Critz leads by 10 points despite the fact that more than two thirds of the district is new to him, in part because among those already familiar with him, he holds a commanding 26point lead over Rothfus, 60% to 34%. Critz is now familiar to a little more than half of the electorate (57% familiar), with 38% viewing him favorably, and 19% viewing him unfavorably. Rothfus starts the race less familiar to voters (21% familiar), with 14% viewing him favorably and 7% viewing him unfavorably. Even a fair introduction of Rothfus does nothing to narrow the contest. In fact, following brief positive profiles of both candidates, Critz expands his lead to 12 points, 50% to 38%.

ME THO DO LO G Y
This memorandum summarizes results from a telephone poll of 402 randomly selected likely voters in Pennsylvanias 12th Congressional District conducted June 13-15, 2012. The estimation error associated with a sample of 402 is 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within plus or minus 4.9 points of the results that would have been obtained if all likely voters had been interviewed. Note that special care was taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual electorate are properly represented.

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