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MB0048 SET 2

MB0048 SET 2

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Published by Ahmed Barkaati
MB0048 SET 2 WITH SOLUTION
MB0048 SET 2 WITH SOLUTION

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Published by: Ahmed Barkaati on Jun 21, 2012
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07/22/2013

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http://educationblog2012.blogspot.in/ 
1. What is a model in OR?. Discuss different models available in OR.A.1 Most operations research studies involve the construction of a mathematical model. Themodel is a collection of logical and mathematical relationships that represents aspects of thesituation under study. Models describe important relationships between variables, include anobjective function with which alternative solutions are evaluated, and constraints that restrictsolutions to feasible values.Although the analyst would hope to study the broad implications of the problem using a systemsapproach, a model cannot include every aspect of a situation. A model is always an abstractionthat is of necessity simpler than the real situation. Elements that are irrelevant or unimportant tothe problem are to be ignored, hopefully leaving sufficient detail so that the solution obtainedwith the model has value with regard to the original problem.Models must be both tractable, capable of being solved, and valid, representative of the originalsituation. These dual goals are often contradictory and are not always attainable. It is generallytrue that the most powerful solution methods can be applied to the simplest, or most abstract,model.The various types of models used in operations research are :-
 
1.6.1
 
A broad classification of OR models
 You can broadly classify OR models into the following types.a.
Physical Models
include all form of diagrams, graphs and charts. They are designed to tacklespecific problems. They bring out significant factors and interrelationships in pictorial form tofacilitate analysis. There are two types of physical models:I. Iconic modelsII. Analog models
 
http://educationblog2012.blogspot.in/ 
 
Iconic models are primarily images of objects or systems, represented on a smaller scale. Thesemodels can simulate the actual performance of a product. Analog models are small physicalsystems having characteristics similar to the objects they represent, such as toys.b.
Mathematical or Symbolic Models
employ a set of mathematical symbols to represent thedecision variable of the system. The variables are related by mathematical systems. Someexamples of mathematical models are allocation, sequencing, and replacement models.c.
By nature of Environment:
Models can be further classified as follows:I. Deterministic model in which everything is defined and the results are certain, such as an EOQmodel.II. Probabilistic Models in which the input and output variables follow a defined probabilitydistribution, such as the Games Theory.d.
By the extent of Generality
Models can be further classified as follows:I. General Models are the models which you can apply in general to any problem. For example:Linear programming.II. Specific Models on the other hand are models that you can apply only under specificconditions. For example: You can use the sales response curve or equation as a function of onlyin the marketing function.2. Write dual of Max Z= 4X1+5X2
subject to 3X1+X2≤15X1+2X2≤105X1+2X2≤20X1, X2≥0
A.2
Solution
: The given problem is in its standard form: \ Its dual isMini
W = 15y1 + 10 y2 + 20 y3
Subject to
3y1
+ y2 + 5 y3 ≥ 4
 
 y1 + 2y2 + 2y3 ≥ 5
 
 y1, y2, y3, ≥ 0
 
3. Write a note on Monte-Carlo simulation.
 
http://educationblog2012.blogspot.in/ 
 
A.3 Simulation is also called experimentation in the management laboratory. While dealing with
 business problems, simulation is often referred to as ‗Monte Carlo Analysis‘. Two American
mathematicians, Von Neumann and Ulan, in the late 1940s found a problem in the field of nuclear physics too complex for analytical solution and too dangerous for actualexperimentation. They arrived at an approximate solution by sampling. The method they used
had resemblance to the gambler‘s betting systems on the roulette table, hence the name ‗MonteCarlo‘ has stuck.
 Imagine a betting game where the stakes are based on correct prediction of the number of heads,which occur when five coins are tossed. If it were only a question of one coin; most people knowthat there is an equal likelihood of a head or a tail occurring, that is the probability of a head is ½.However, without the application of probability theory, it would be difficult to predict thechances of getting various numbers of heads, when five coins are tossed.
Why don‘t you take five coins and toss them repeatedly. Note down the outcomes of each toss
after every ten tosses, approximate the probabilities of various outcomes. As you know, thevalues of these probabilities will initially fluctuate, but they would tend to stabilise as the numberof tosses are increased. This approach in effect is a method of sampling, but is not veryconvenient. Instead of actually tossing the coins, you can conduct the experiment using randomnumbers. Random numbers have the property that any number is equally likely to occur,irrespective of the digit that has already occurred.Let us estimate the probability of tossing of different numbers of heads with five coins. We startwith set random numbers given below:
Table : Random number set
78466 7192378722 7887006401 6120804754 0500397118 95983
By following a convention that ―even‖ digits signify a head (H) and the ―odd‖ digits represent a
tail (T), the tossing of a coin can be simulated. The probability of occurrence of the first set of digits is ½ and that of the other set is also ½ - a condition corresponding to the probability of theoccurrence of a head and the probability of occurrence of a tail respectively.It is immaterial as to which set of five digits should signify a head. The rule could be that thedigits 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 represent a head and the digits 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 a tail. It is only necessary totake care that the set of random numbers allotted to any event matches with its probability of 

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