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CRISIL Power Opinion Nov 2011

CRISIL Power Opinion Nov 2011

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Published by: subru1980 on Jun 22, 2012
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CRISIL RESEARCH POWER ANNUAL REVIEW
 
A-i
 
Sections
Executive summary A-1- Capacity additions and high growth in GDP to boost power demand A-1- Investments of Rs 9.3 trillion expected during the next 5 years A-1- Power generation equipment BTG capacity to exceed demand A-1- BoP a Rs 1.6 trillion opportunity A-1- BoP players shifting from component-based model to turnkey model A-21.0 Review and outlook A-3- Economic growth, capacity additions to fuel power demand A-3- Industrial sector to lead demand growth A-3- Demand growth across regions not expected to be uniform A-4
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Generation capacities of 82 GW expected to be added over
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the next 5 years A-5- Capacity additions to lead to supply growth of 9.1 per cent CAGR A-8- Country-wide deficit to reduce to 4.8 per cent by 2014-15 A-9- Peak load deficit also expected to decline by 2014-15 A-11- Investments to the tune of Rs 9.3 trillion expected over the next 5 years A-122.0 Generation equipment - BTG capacity to exceed demand A-15- Private players prefer EPC route to procure equipment A-15- BTG - staring at an overcapacity situation A-173.0 BoP Huge opportunity amidst stiff competition A-21- BoP - a Rs 1.6 trillion opportunity A-21- BoP - a highly scattered segment with severe competition A-24
Charts
1.0 Review and outlook01 Region-wise demand-supply A-102.0 Generation equipment - BTG capacity to exceed demand01 NTPC awards each of the components separately A-1602 Private utilities prefer EPC route A-173.0 BoP – Huge opportunity amidst stiff competition01 BoP: Opportunity in major components A-2202 Coal handling capacity required by a 1,000 MW plant A-2203 Ash handling capacity required by a 500 MW plant A-2304 Water requirement for a 1,000 MW plant A-2405 Players present in various components of BoP and their market shares A-25
Continued…
 
Opinion
November 2010
 
 
A-ii 
CRISIL RESEARCH POWER ANNUAL REVIEW 
…continued
Figures
1.0 Review and outlook01 Consumer-wise share of demand A-402 Region-wise demand growth A-403 Sector-wise capacity additions A-604 Fuel-wise capacity additions A-705 Region-wise capacity additions A-706 Power supply and capacity additions A-907 Power deficit scenario A-908 Peak load - Expected demand-supply scenario A-1209 Investments in the generation segment - Sector-wise A-132.0 Generation equipment - BTG capacity to exceed demand01 Sector-wise share in coal-based capacity additions A-163.0 BoP – Huge opportunity amidst stiff competition01 BoP industry size A-2102 CHP players - Du Pont decomposition A-2703 CHP players - Cash conversion cycle A-2704 Performance of the CHP industry A-2705 Water treatment players - Du Pont decomposition (2008-09) A-2906 Water treatment players - Cash conversion cycle (2008-09) A-2907 Performance of the water treatment industry (excluding cooling tower) A-2908 Turnkey players - Du Pont decomposition A-3009 Turnkey players - Cash conversion cycle A-3010 Performance of the turnkey segment A-31
 
Tables
1.0 Review and outlook01 Major projects expected to be commissioned over the next 5 years A-802 Capacity additions forecast A-1203 Investments in the power sector A-132.0 Generation equipment - BTG capacity to exceed demand01 Break-up of a coal based power plant cost A-1502 Private players’ preference for Chinese equipments A-1803 Capacity additions lined up in the BTG segment A-193.0 BoP – Huge opportunity amidst stiff competition01 Financials of CHP companies A-2602 Financials of water treatment and cooling tower companies A-2803 Financials of turnkey players A-30
 
 
CRISIL RESEARCH POWER ANNUAL REVIEW 
A-1
 
u
CRISIL Research expects India’s power deficit to decline to around 5 per cent by 2014-15, following the additionof 82 GW of power generation capacities over the next 5 years. The sizeable capacity additions have encouraged  several private players to enter the boiler, turbine, generator (BTG) segment. However, with the domestic BTGcapacity expected to cross 30 GW by 2013, an overcapacity scenario is likely. On the balance of plant (BoP) front, CRISIL Research expects Rs 1.6 trillion of projects to be executed by 2014-15. Severe competition in the segment and player preference for awarding projects on turnkey basis is driving component manufacturers toexecute the entire BoP project.
Capacity additions and high growth in GDP to boost power demand 
CRISIL Research expects 82 GW of power capacities to be added between 2009-10 and 2014-15 as compared to amere 33 GW added during the previous 5 years. This translates to a supply increase of 9.1 per cent CAGR over the next 5 years. During the same period, GDP growth is likely to average 8.0-8.5 per cent. This growth together with the increased supply of power is expected to boost power demand at a compounded rate of 7.8 per centduring 2009-10 to 2014-15 vis-à-vis the previous 5-year CAGR of 7.0 per cent.High growth in supply is expected to reduce the power deficit to around 5 per cent by 2014-15 from 10.1 per centin 2009-10. As per CRISIL Research’s region-wise analysis, the southern region is likely to inch closer to a balanced scenario whereas the eastern region is expected to have a surplus situation. However, the western andnorthern regions are likely to continue to reel under high deficits.
Investments of Rs 9.3 trillion expected during the next 5 years
The sizeable capacity additions [inclusive of generation (utilities and captives) and concomitant transmission anddistribution] over the next 5 years will require an investment outlay Rs 9.3 trillion, according to CRISIL Research.Of this, the generation segment would constitute a lion’s share at Rs 5.8 trillion, mainly driven by private sector  players.
Power generation equipment – BTG capacity to exceed demand 
CRISIL Research expects the huge generation capacity additions to spur players like Larsen & Toubro, JSWEnergy, Bharat Forge, BGR Energy, amongst others, to install boiler, turbine, generator (BTG) capacities of morethan 15 GW in joint venture with foreign players; currently, Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd is the only domestic player in the BTG segment with an operational capacity of 15 GW. Hence, by 2013, the BTG capacity in thecountry is likely to exceed 30 GW while capacity additions in the power sector would be 15-20 GW per year,thus, leading to an overcapacity situation.[Power generation equipment are divided in two broad categories: (i) BTG and (ii) balance of plant (BoP), withthe BTG segment accounting for around 50 per cent of the total cost involved in setting up a power plant.]
 
Executive summary

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