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MI-03 Mellman Group for Trevor Thomas (June 2012)

MI-03 Mellman Group for Trevor Thomas (June 2012)

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Jun 22, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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06/22/2012

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1
13%27%4%19%
0%10%20%30%40%50%
ThomasPestka
favorableunfavorable
 Favorability (rank ordered by mean)
RatioHard IDMean
3.174.7523%2.782.0840%
While Both Currently Have Low Profiles, Thomas IsBetter-Liked Than Pestka
TO: The ThomasCampaignFROM:The Mellman Group, Inc.RE:With Sufficient Funds To Get His Message Out, Trevor Thomas Is Well-PositionedTo Beat Steve Pestka In Michigan’s Third Congressional DistrictDATE:June 19, 2012
This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 400 Democratic primary votersrepresentingthelikely 2012Democratic primaryelectorate inMichigan’s 3
rd 
Congressional District. Interviews wereconducted by telephone June14to June17, 2012, usinga registration-based sample. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.9% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for  subgroups.
TrevorThomasis well-placedto defeatSteve Pestka,in Michigan’s 3
rd
Congressional Districtin what begins as a close racewith a huge number of undecided voters. Thomascomes to the race from a career outside of politics,sohe will need to build his public image and introduce himself to the District’svoters, but Pestka also starts out the race with a low profile andsuffers from a number of vulnerabilitiesrevealed by our poll. Our poll confirms Thomas has a powerful set of messages at his disposal if he canraise the funds to get that message out.
Thomas Is Better-Liked Than PestkaAmong Those Who Know Each
Thoughhe is somewhat more widely known, Pestka’s hard name identification extends to less thanhalf of the District’s primary voters (40% hard name ID). Pestka is reasonably well-liked by those whoknow him, with 27% saying they view him favorably, while 13% view him unfavorably. Newcomer Thomas is less well known,with a hard name IDof 23%, but he is much more favorably viewed thanPestka among those whoknow him. Nineteen percent (19%) viewThomas favorably, while just 4% view himunfavorably. As a result,Thomas enjoys a ratio of favorable-to-unfavorableratings of 4.75-to-1 whilePestka’s ratio is a muchlower 2.08-to-1.
Thomas Takes A LargeLead Over Pestka In AnInformed Trial Heat
What’s more, our poll provides clear evidence that

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