2.0 Demographic Trends It is difficult to trace the demographic trends of the city prior to the 1901 Census.

At the 1901 Census the population of Baroda was 1,03,790. Around 1902, the City faced a locust invasion, resulting in a heavy loss of the agricultural output. Plague followed by famine in 1906, made the conditions very abject. The population of the City declined by five per cent during 1901-21. In 1911, there were only 99,345 persons in the City and in 1921 number further declined to 94,712.

Demographically, the third decade was a transitory period in the population history of Baroda. In this decade population grew rather fast (19.16 per cent) to reach 1,12,860 level in 1931. It further increased to 1,53,860 in 1941 and 2,11,407 in 1951 registering a decadal growth of 35.83 and 37.90 per cent respectively (Table-I). Table -1: Vadodara: Demographic Trends (1901-2001) Year Population % % % Of Change Change State VMC VUDA Urban 1901 1,03,790 5.1 1911 99,345 -4.28 5.3 1921 94,712 -4.66 4.6 1931 1,12,860 19.16 4.8 1941 1,53,301 35.82 4.8 1951 2,11,407 37.90 4.8 1961 3,09,487 46.50 36.80 5.8 1971 4,67,487 50.94 45.80 6.2 1981 7,34,473 57.10 49.77 6.4 1991 10,21,084 39.02 21.97 7.1 2001 13,22,620 40.00 34.05 9.5 2011* 16,66,703 26.01 6.5 *Provisional Figures

% Of District Urban 73.3 71.6 65.3 66.2 68.1 77.0 77.9 77.9 72.3 85.16 89.04 80.91

% Of Total Pop. 17.6 14.3 12.5 12.0 12.8 17.4 20.4 23.6 28.7 33.0 40.0

Figure 3: Population Trends 1901-2011 After Independence, Vadodara received a good attention from the Central and State Governments. The city developed as one of the major industrial and commercial centers of Gujarat. Consequently, its population increased from 2,11,407 in 1951 to 3,09,487 in 1961, registering a decadal growth of 46.50 per cent. By 1971, Vadodara had 4,67,487 people. During the subsequent decade (1971-81), it increased by 57 per cent to become 7,34,473. The trend of growth set during the first three decades of the post-Independence era, continued during the last two decades of 1981-1991 (39.02%) and 1991-2001 (40%). At the beginning of the present decade (2001) the city had 13,22,620 persons accounting for 7.1 per cent of the urban population of the whole State and 89 per cent of the urban population of Vadodara district.

According to the recent provisional figures of Census of India (2011) the VMC population has reached to 16,66,703 persons and projected at 21,15,000 by 2021 by VUDA. If we take the Vadodara Urban Agglomeration (UA) into account, the population figure in 2021 would be close to 3 million. During the period 2001-2011 the city growth has slowed down due to decline in migration as well as natural growth of population from 40 percent in previous decade to present 26 percent.

Population growth is not uniform all over the city. Growth rates are lower in the interior and higher in the periphery. Population of the inner city areas, particularly in the City Ward declined by -17.66 and -10.77 during 1981-91 and 1991-2001 decades (Table 2).

Table 2: Ward-Wise Area and Population Trends (1971-2001) Ward Name of the Total No. Ward Area (sq.km) 1971 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 City Fatehpura Wadi GIDC Babajipura Sayajiganj(S) Sayajiganj(N) Raopura Kishanwadi Gorwa Total 0.664 7.054 5.974 29.854 4.954 25.24 9.14 5.47 12.02 7.94 108.31 58950 62206 79078 24420 64850 33006 77404 78508 0 0 478422 1981 64831 119465 112735 77457 74476 61957 128559 94993 0 0 734473 Census Population

G.R.* 1991 9.98 92.05 42.56 217.19 14.84 87.71 66.09 21 0 0 53383 117289 87158 133943 70057 126343 112399 112750 107104 110926 1031352

G.R.*

2001

G.R.* -10.77 -2.19 8.52 62.45 11.61 50.46 17.54 1.57 52.12 38.87 26.67

-17.66 47636 -1.82 114720 -22.69 94588 72.93 217592 -5.93 78192 103.92 190095 -12.57 132115 18.69 114525 0.00 162931 0.00 154043 40.42 1306436

Source: VMC * G.R. = Growth Rate.

Density of Population Given the rapid growth of population and increasing diversification of functions, the necessary space to house the people and various activities could not be found within the city. New residential colonies came up in the peripheral areas especially along the major highways. The industry too found the environment away from the city but within its shadow more favourable. According to 1991 Census returns, the City Ward recorded the highest density of 80,396 persons per sq. km., which is estimated to come down to 43,702 persons per sq. km. in 2006, whereas, the GIDC area which recorded the density of 4,487 persons per sq. km in 1991 is likely to have 6,272 persons per sq. km. in 2006. Table 3 gives ward-wise density in 1991 and 2006.

Figure 4: Population Density Map

Table 3: Ward-Wise Density of Population (1991 and 2006) Ward No. Ward Name Total Area (sq. km) 1991 0.664 7.054 5.974 29.854 4.954 25.24 9.14 5.47 12.02 7.94 108.31 Density 1991 80396 16627 14590 4487 14142 5006 12297 20612 8910 13971 9522 Total Area (sq. km) 2006 1.09 13.43 24.66 34.69 5.10 23.00 12.69 5.48 15.78 13.80 149.72 Density 2006 43702 8542 3836 6272 15332 8265 10411 20899 10325 11163 8726

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

City Fatehpura Wadi GIDC Babajipura Sayajiganj(S) Sayajiganj(N) Raopura Kishanwadi Gorwa Total

The immense change in the density pattern reveals that the old city area is experiencing decline in population growth partly because the cost of land is too high in the inner city and partly because the inner city is being commercialized and many residential buildings are being converted into shops etc.

The high-density areas of City, Fatehpura, Wadi, Babajipura and Raopura Wards are associated with commercial and retail activities, which in turn put excessive traffic pressure on the roads. The capacity of the major sub-arteries is not enough to cater to the needs of these dense areas. Though there is shift in the density patterns between the wards, more growth is observed in the western (Sayajigunj South) and southern (GIDC) wards, while the core is still being over utilized. Growth in the western and southern wards may be due to improved infrastructure in these areas and its nearness to the major work places.

Another interesting fact to note is that more than 70 per cent of the Vadodara district population lived in the city right from the beginning of the century. This concentrated growth of

population during the last several decades has mainly been due to migration of people from the rural areas.

Quality of Population

If we take literacy as the proxy for the quality of population, we find Vadodara highly advanced. Within the last fifty years the literacy rate has increased from 48.60 per cent in 1951 to 94.26 per cent in 2001. The decadal literacy figures for the city are: 55 per cent in 1961; 61.60 per cent in 1971and 86.40 per cent in 1981.

Physical growth of the city is induced by development of residential colonies and location of new industries around the city. Industrial and commercial activities have developed along the major arterial roads running north-south and east-west of the city. Initially, the development was along the four axes of Mandvi (the city center), later it spread outwards in the west and the northwestern directions. Consequentially, the administrative limits of the city had to be increased from time to time. Until 1960s the municipal limits of the city had just 22.68 sq. km. By June 1964 the area increased to 72.44 sq. km and by December 1973 to 97.22 sq. km. Another 10.50 sq. km were added in 1975 to increase the total to 108.22 sq. km. The last expansion was in the year 2002-03, when the Vadodara Municipal Corporation (VMC) brought within its limits a few adjoining villages to increase its total area to 149.72 sq. km.
The Vadodara Urban Development Authority (VUDA) was established on 1st Feb. 1978 charged with the responsibility of planning and development of the city and its region. The VUDA covers 714 sq. km of area including areas of VMC and some 104 villages of Vadodara, Padra, Vaghodia talukas.

Transport network within the city and between the city and its hinterland has considerable influence on the physical growth of the city. Vadodara was brought on the railway map of India in 1870. Gradually, broad gauge railway lines connecting Vadodara with Bombay in the south, Ahmedabad and Delhi in the north and Central India in the east were constructed. This gave impetus to growth and modernization along the major routes.

The walled city, planned as it was over a hundred year back, continued to be the major activity area and the focal point, although the city started spreading out mostly westward towards the railway station. Laxmi Vilash Palace, Kala Bhavan - a technical institute, General Hospital, two colleges (Baroda College and Ayurvedic College) and a public park were new development nodes and the gaps in between were filled mostly by residential colonies of the affluent section of the society. In the process, the city got a new extended structural form and reflected the conscious efforts of the visionary ruler, HH Maharaja Sir Sayajirao Gaekwad.