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Public Policy Polling, Oregon, June 2012

Public Policy Polling, Oregon, June 2012

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Published by Tom Kludt

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Published by: Tom Kludt on Jun 26, 2012
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Public Policy Polling3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604Phone: 888 621-6988Web: www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail: information@publicpolicypolling.com
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 26, 2012INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAILinformation@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPHOF THE PRESS RELEASE
Obama slipping but still up 8 points in Oregon
Raleigh, N.C. –
Like its neighbor to the north, Washington, and other former swingstates that were nailbiters in 2000 and 2004, President Obama won Oregon with adominating 16-point margin over John McCain in 2008. Now in PPP’s latest poll, thatmargin has been cut in half.Unlike in other states, Mitt Romney’s personal popularity has not budged much inOregon since PPP last polled the state a year ago. Nor has President Obama’s. Becauseof that, the president remains at exactly 50%, but Romney has picked up four points of previously undecided voters. Where Obama led by 12 points in the early stages of theRepublican primary battle, he now leads by only eight.For Romney, it has been all about shoring up his base and flipping independents. Helagged by five points with independents in the last poll, and leads by 22 now. Part of thatis an improvement in Romney’s personal image with these votes, but they also have gonefrom breaking even on Obama’s job performance to disapproving by a 2:1 spread. At thesame time, Romney has moved from 77% to 84% of the GOP, with Obama still taking11% of them. Obama has improved a little with his own party, from 83-10 to 86-8.Obama has gone uphill with women but downhill with men. Where he led with femalesby 20 points last June, he tops Romney by 26 now. Men, on the other hand, now favorRomney by 11, where Obama led with them by six. Obama does now lead with everyage group, even two points with seniors, on top of 32 points with those under 30.“Barack Obama doesn’t really need to worry about losing Oregon, but it’s clear hisstanding there is a lot weaker than it was in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.PPP also polled four other statewide races. The Democratic candidates lead by 12 to 18points in the three partisan contests, but 56% are undecided in the officially nonpartisanLabor Commissioner race. Bruce Starr, a Republican by registration, leads BradAvakian, the Democratic incumbent, by an inconsequential 23-21 margin.PPP surveyed 686 Oregon voters from June 21
st
to 24
th
. The margin of error for thesurvey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or politicalorganization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
 
June 21-24, 2012
Survey of 686 Oregon voters
June 21-24, 2012
Survey of 686 Oregon voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-69883020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Oregon Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of PresidentBarack Obama’s job performance?49%
Approve 
..........................................................
46%
Disapprove 
......................................................
5%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q2
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Mitt Romney?37%
Favorable 
........................................................
51%
Unfavorable 
....................................................
12%
Not sure 
..........................................................
Q3
If the candidates for President this year wereDemocrat Barack Obama and Republican MittRomney, who would you vote for?50%
Barack Obama 
................................................
42%
Mitt Romney 
....................................................
8%
Undecided 
.......................................................
Q4
The candidates for Secretary of State areDemocrat Kate Brown and Republican KnuteBuehler. If the election was today, who wouldyou vote for?48%
Kate Brown 
.....................................................
30%
Knute Buehler 
.................................................
21%
Undecided 
.......................................................
Q5
The candidates for State Treasurer areDemocrat Ted Wheeler and Republican TomCox. If the election was today, who would youvote for?46%
Ted Wheeler 
....................................................
34%
Tom Cox 
.........................................................
19%
Undecided 
.......................................................
Q6
The candidates for Attorney General areDemocrat Ellen Rosenblum and RepublicanJames Buchal. If the election was today, whowould you vote for?46%
Ellen Rosenblum 
.............................................
33%
James Buchal 
.................................................
20%
Undecided 
.......................................................
Q7
The candidates for Labor Commissioner areBrad Avakian and Bruce Starr. If the electionwas today, who would you vote for?21%
Brad Avakian 
...................................................
23%
Bruce Starr 
......................................................
56%
Undecided 
.......................................................
Q8
Who did you vote for President in 2008?40%
John McCain 
...................................................
51%
Barack Obama 
................................................
9%
Someone else/Don't remember 
......................
Q9
Would you describe yourself as very liberal,somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhatconservative, or very conservative?15%
Very liberal 
......................................................
21%
Somewhat liberal 
............................................
27%
Moderate 
.........................................................
22%
Somewhat conservative 
..................................
15%
Very conservative 
...........................................
Q10
If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.52%
Woman 
...........................................................
48%
Man 
.................................................................
Q11
If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.46%
Democrat 
........................................................
30%
Republican 
......................................................
25%
Independent/Other 
..........................................
 
June 21-24, 2012
Survey of 686 Oregon voters
June 21-24, 2012
Survey of 686 Oregon voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-69883020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Q12
If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.91%
White 
..............................................................
9%
Other 
...............................................................
Q13
If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.12%
18 to 29 
...........................................................
22%
30 to 45 
...........................................................
44%
46 to 65 
...........................................................
22%
Older than 65 
..................................................

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