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JPMorgan Nothing But Net Internet Investment Guide 2009

JPMorgan Nothing But Net Internet Investment Guide 2009

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Published by yiah
Table of Contents
Key Investment Themes ..........................................................5
Dot.Khan’s Top Ten Things to Watch for in 2009 ................15
U.S. Sector Outloooks............................................................17
Search Advertising Outlook ..................................................19
Graphical Advertising Outlook..............................................25
Ad Networks on the Rise .......................................................29
Ad Exchanges: A New Marketplace ......................................37
eCommerce Outlook ..............................................................40
Online Travel Outlook ............................................................47
The Mobile Market ..................................................................53
Online Payment Outlook........................................................62
Social Networks Primer .........................................................70
Online Music Primer...............................................................78
The Challenges for Online Video ..........................................81
Widgets: Popularity Is Growing, but Can It Be Monetized?83
Online Photo Market Outlook ................................................86
Cloud Computing Outlook.....................................................90
Virtual Online Worlds Primer.................................................95
Internet for Social Good.......................................................100
International Sector Outlooks .............................................103
China Internet Market Overview..........................................105
Russia Sector Outlook.........................................................140
Korean Internet Outlook ......................................................150
U.S. Company Previews.......................................................155
Amazon.com, Overweight, ($50.76) ....................................157
Blue Nile, Inc., Underweight, ($23.67) .................................166
Dice Holdings, Neutral, ($4.11)............................................174
eBay, Neutral, ($13.96) .........................................................181
Expedia, Overweight, ($7.80)...............................................191
Google, Overweight, ($303.11) ............................................198
IAC, Neutral, ($15.77)............................................................205
MercadoLibre, Overweight, ($15.69) ...................................213
Omniture, Overweight, ($9.85).............................................222
Orbitz Worldwide, Neutral, ($3.65) ......................................229

Priceline, Overweight, ($70.82)............................................235
RealNetworks, Inc, Neutral, ($3.55) .....................................243
Shutterfly, Inc., Overweight ($6.75).....................................249
ValueClick, Neutral, ($6.56)..................................................257
Yahoo!, Overweight, ($11.97) ..............................................264
International Company Outlooks ........................................273
Baidu, Overweight, ($126.93)...............................................275
China Finance Online, Neutral, ($7.05) ...............................282
NetEase, Neutral, ($22.10)....................................................289
Ninetowns, Neutral, ($0.83)..................................................295
Shanda, Overweight, ($30.75)..............................................300
Sina, Overweight, ($22.89) ...................................................306
Sohu, Overweight, ($46.22)..................................................312
The9, Overweight, ($13.68) ..................................................318
UOL, Neutral, R$7.3 ..............................................................324
Table of Contents
Key Investment Themes ..........................................................5
Dot.Khan’s Top Ten Things to Watch for in 2009 ................15
U.S. Sector Outloooks............................................................17
Search Advertising Outlook ..................................................19
Graphical Advertising Outlook..............................................25
Ad Networks on the Rise .......................................................29
Ad Exchanges: A New Marketplace ......................................37
eCommerce Outlook ..............................................................40
Online Travel Outlook ............................................................47
The Mobile Market ..................................................................53
Online Payment Outlook........................................................62
Social Networks Primer .........................................................70
Online Music Primer...............................................................78
The Challenges for Online Video ..........................................81
Widgets: Popularity Is Growing, but Can It Be Monetized?83
Online Photo Market Outlook ................................................86
Cloud Computing Outlook.....................................................90
Virtual Online Worlds Primer.................................................95
Internet for Social Good.......................................................100
International Sector Outlooks .............................................103
China Internet Market Overview..........................................105
Russia Sector Outlook.........................................................140
Korean Internet Outlook ......................................................150
U.S. Company Previews.......................................................155
Amazon.com, Overweight, ($50.76) ....................................157
Blue Nile, Inc., Underweight, ($23.67) .................................166
Dice Holdings, Neutral, ($4.11)............................................174
eBay, Neutral, ($13.96) .........................................................181
Expedia, Overweight, ($7.80)...............................................191
Google, Overweight, ($303.11) ............................................198
IAC, Neutral, ($15.77)............................................................205
MercadoLibre, Overweight, ($15.69) ...................................213
Omniture, Overweight, ($9.85).............................................222
Orbitz Worldwide, Neutral, ($3.65) ......................................229

Priceline, Overweight, ($70.82)............................................235
RealNetworks, Inc, Neutral, ($3.55) .....................................243
Shutterfly, Inc., Overweight ($6.75).....................................249
ValueClick, Neutral, ($6.56)..................................................257
Yahoo!, Overweight, ($11.97) ..............................................264
International Company Outlooks ........................................273
Baidu, Overweight, ($126.93)...............................................275
China Finance Online, Neutral, ($7.05) ...............................282
NetEase, Neutral, ($22.10)....................................................289
Ninetowns, Neutral, ($0.83)..................................................295
Shanda, Overweight, ($30.75)..............................................300
Sina, Overweight, ($22.89) ...................................................306
Sohu, Overweight, ($46.22)..................................................312
The9, Overweight, ($13.68) ..................................................318
UOL, Neutral, R$7.3 ..............................................................324

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Published by: yiah on Jan 08, 2009
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Global Equity Research
05 January 2009
Nothing But Net
2009 Internet Investment Guide
Global InternetImran Khan
AC
(1-212) 622-6693imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Bridget Weishaar
(1-212) 622-5032bridget.a.weishaar@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Lev Polinsky, CFA
(1-212) 622-8343lev.x.polinsky@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Vasily Karasyov
AC
(1-212) 622-5401vasily.d.karasyov@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
China InternetDick Wei
AC
(852) 2800-8535dick.x.wei@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
Russia InternetElena Bazhenova
AC
(7-495) 937-7314elena.bazhenova@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Bank International LLC
Korea InternetAngela Hong
AC
(82-2) 758-5719angela.s.hong@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited
See page 332 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm mayhave a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companiescovered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research atwww.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.
Please see our separate notes out todaychanging ratings for Amazon and Dice Holdings. We also have a separate noteout today changing estimates and introducing 2009 price targets for theremainder of our Internet coverage. Alldata and valuation priced as of 30 December 2008.
 
 2
Global Equity Research
05 January 2009Imran Khan(1-212) 622-6693imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com
Table of Contents
 
 3
Global Equity Research
05 January 2009Imran Khan(1-212) 622-6693imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com
Note: ValueClick is covered by U.S. Advertising & Marketing Services analyst Townsend Buckles. UOL is covered byLatin American Media & Internet analyst Andre Baggio. RealNetworks is covered by Vasily Karasyov.
The authors acknowledge the contribution of Jigar Vakharia of J.P. Morgan Services India Private Ltd., Mumbai, and Shelby Taffer, of J.P. Morgan Securities, Inc., tothis report.

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