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TSOS June 2012

TSOS June 2012

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Published by: Coy Davidson on Jun 28, 2012
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06/29/2012

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June 26, 2012
EXASERVICEECTORCTIVITYXPANDSBUTUTLOOKESSOSITIVE
Texas service sector activity increased in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas ServiceSector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, held steady at 10.9,suggesting revenue growth in June was about the same as last month.Labor market indicators reflected slower labor demand growth and little change in the average workweek. Theemployment index fell from 11.1
 
to 7.8 in June, and the hours worked index dropped to 1 from 7.7.Perceptions of broader economic conditions were mixed in June. The general business activity index edged up from5.3 to 7.3 after falling for three consecutive months. The company outlook index posted its lowest reading in ninemonths, moving down to 2.6 from 8.5, with 20 percent of respondents reporting their outlooks improved from lastmonth and 18 percent noting they worsened.Upward pressure on selling prices continued easing, while wages rose faster in June. The selling prices index camein at 4.6, its lowest reading since December 2011, while the wages and benefits index rose to 16.4 from 13.8.Most indexes of future service sector activity stayed positive but fell in June. The future revenue index dropped 18points to 27.2, about where it was one year ago. Broader measures also retreated. The index of future generalbusiness activity fell to 5.8, its lowest reading since September 2011, and the index of future company outlookmoved down to 11.3 from 20.
 
ETAILALESROWTHLOWS
Retail sales increased at a slower pace in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas RetailOutlook Survey. The sales index fell from 10.9 to 7, its lowest reading since July 2011. Inventories rose.Labor market indicators reflected more hiring and shorter workweeks. The employment index rose from 10.8 in Mayto 13.3 in June. The hours worked index declined 13 points to -8.2, its first negative reading in nine months.Perceptions of general business conditions were less optimistic in June. The general business activity index came inat 4.6—roughly 4 points below its reading last month. The company outlook index fell sharply from 8.6 to 0.7, itslowest reading since August 2011. Fifteen percent of respondents noted their company’s outlook had improved fromthe prior month, compared with 14 percent who reported their outlook had worsened.Retail price increases and wage growth slowed in June. The selling prices index edged down from 7.5 to 6.5. Thewages and benefits index moved down from 12.2 to 5, although the great majority of respondents continued to noteno change in labor costs.Indexes of future retail sector activity generally fell in June but remained in positive territory. Perceptions of futureeconomic conditions were stable and stayed positive. The index of future general business activity moved downabout one point, while the index of future company outlook held steady.
The Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS) is a component of the TSSOS that uses information only fromrespondents in the retail and wholesale sectors.
The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of thestate’s service sector activity. Data were collected June 12–20, and 223 Texas business executives responded tothe survey. Firms are asked whether revenue, employment, prices, general business activity and other indicators
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasTexas Service Sector Outlook Survey1
 
Next release:
increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month.Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each index is calculated by subtracting thepercentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When the share of firms reporting an increase exceeds the share reporting a decrease, the index will be greater than zero, suggesting the indicator has increased over the prior month. If the share of firms reporting a decrease exceeds the sharereporting an increase, the index will be below zero, suggesting the indicator has decreased over the prior month. Anindex will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase is equal to the number of firms reporting adecrease.July 31, 2012
EXASERVICEECTORUTLOOKURVEY
Business Indicators Relating to Facilities and Products in TexasCurrent
IndicatorJunIndexMayIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Increase%Reporting No Change%Reporting DecreaseRevenue10.910.1+0.8Increasing3232.146.721.2Employment7.811.1-3.3Increasing2819.169.611.3Part-time employment3.17.9-4.8Increasing108.785.75.6Hours worked1.07.7-6.7Increasing169.083.08.0Wages and benefits16.413.8+2.6Increasing3519.278.02.8Input prices18.822.7-3.9Increasing3825.667.66.8Selling prices4.65.0-0.4Increasing1813.677.49.0Capital expenditures16.715.9+0.8Increasing3423.969.07.2
General Business ConditionsCurrent
IndicatorJunIndexMayIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Improved%Reporting No Change%Reporting WorsenedCompany outlook2.68.5-5.9Improving1020.461.817.8General business activity7.35.3+2.0Improving822.163.014.8
Business Indicators Relating to Facilities and Products in TexasSix Months Ahead
IndicatorJunIndexMayIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Increase%Reporting No Change%Reporting DecreaseRevenue27.245.0-17.8Increasing4043.240.916.0Employment17.625.4-7.8Increasing3927.163.49.5Part-time employment-0.96.2-7.1Decreasing19.679.910.5Hours worked6.86.2+0.6Increasing3410.885.24.0Wages and benefits34.432.6+1.8Increasing6636.162.21.7Input prices40.242.8-2.6Increasing6644.850.64.6Selling prices18.223.0-4.8Increasing3528.960.410.7Capital expenditures17.824.3-6.5Increasing3929.359.211.5
General Business ConditionsSix Months Ahead
IndicatorJunIndexMayIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Improved%Reporting No Change%Reporting WorsenedCompany outlook11.320.0-8.7Improving1028.055.316.7General business activity5.813.1-7.3Improving920.465.014.6*Indicator direction refers to this month's index. If index is positive (negative), indicator is increasing (decreasing) or improving (worsening). If zero, indicator is unchanged.**Number of months moving in current direction.Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasTexas Service Sector Outlook Survey2
 
EXASETAILUTLOOKURVEY
Business Indicators Relating to Facilities and Products in Texas, RetailCurrent
IndicatorJunIndexMayIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Increase%Reporting No Change%Reporting DecreaseRetail Activity in TexasSales7.010.9-3.9Increasing1332.841.425.8Employment13.310.8+2.5Increasing1117.678.14.3Part-time employment4.913.1-8.2Increasing58.188.73.2Hours worked-8.24.6-12.8Decreasing17.676.615.8Wages and benefits5.012.2-7.2Increasing229.186.84.1Input prices8.217.0-8.8Increasing2320.467.412.2Selling prices6.57.5-1.0Increasing2318.968.712.4Capital expenditures15.69.7+5.9Increasing1523.468.87.8Inventories8.62.7+5.9Increasing1224.659.416.0Companywide Retail ActivitySales16.011.9+4.1Increasing1335.145.819.1Internet sales11.310.2+1.1Increasing222.765.911.4Catalog sales5.10.0+5.1Increasing112.879.57.7
General Business Conditions, RetailCurrent
IndicatorJunIndexMayIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Improved%Reporting No Change%Reporting WorsenedCompany outlook0.78.6-7.9Improving1015.170.514.4General business activity4.68.8-4.2Improving921.561.616.9
Business Indicators Relating to Facilities and Products in Texas, RetailSix Months Ahead
IndicatorJunIndexMayIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Increase%Reporting No Change%Reporting DecreaseRetail Activity in TexasSales33.445.0-11.6Increasing4044.045.510.6Employment17.730.5-12.8Increasing3024.269.46.5Part-time employment4.88.9-4.1Increasing912.979.08.1Hours worked8.27.2+1.0Increasing3314.978.46.7Wages and benefits22.321.6+0.7Increasing4226.269.93.9Input prices29.030.5-1.5Increasing3840.348.411.3Selling prices27.432.2-4.8Increasing3838.750.011.3Capital expenditures16.425.9-9.5Increasing1529.557.413.1Inventories16.817.4-0.6Increasing3127.162.610.3Companywide Retail ActivitySales34.240.1-5.9Increasing3946.640.912.4Internet sales31.918.2+13.7Increasing3936.459.14.5Catalog sales7.90.0+7.9Increasing118.471.110.5
General Business Conditions, RetailSix Months Ahead
IndicatorJunIndexMayIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Improved%Reporting No Change%Reporting WorsenedCompany outlook18.618.4+0.2Improving3827.663.49.0General business activity10.511.7-1.2Improving922.665.312.1*Indicator direction refers to this month's index. If index is positive (negative), indicator is increasing (decreasing) or improving (worsening). If zero, indicator is unchanged.**Number of months moving in current direction.Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasTexas Service Sector Outlook Survey3

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