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Packet Aff

Packet Aff

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Published by: AffNeg.Com on Jan 08, 2009
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06/16/2009

 
SDI 2008Opening PacketLieberman-Warner Aff 
OPENING PACKET AFF- LIEBERMAN-WARNER 
1AC
1-8
Solvency
Plan Solves Warming
9
A/T “Europe Proves Cap-and-trade fails”
10
A/T “Other Countries Will Emit”
11-12
A/T “Reduction Targets Not Strict Enough”
13
DisadsA/T “Economy DAs”
14-16
A/T “Price Volatility DA”
 Not Unique
17
Link Answers
18
A/T “Spending”
19
CounterplansA/T “Carbon Tax CP”
20-22
A/T “States CP”
23-24
1
 
SDI 2008Opening PacketLieberman-Warner Aff 
1ACContention One is Inherency.
The Lieberman-Warner cap and trade bill on carbon emissions was recently defeated in theSenate- other efforts to combat global warming will meet a similar fatePolitico 6/11/
08
(Climate change in '09?, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10989.html)The Senate global warming bill may be six feet under, but the tears have already dried along K Street as lobbyists set their sights on the nextadministration. Regardless of who claims the White House this fall, climate change legislation is all but certain to be a top priority next year.
Environmental lobbyists have already swung their focus around from the Senate to theHouse, from which the next big bill is predicted to emerge
. Maintaining momentum from the old bill is key,they say, and members can expect a push this summer that is nothing short of global warming boot camp. “All the lobbying interests working onLieberman-Warner are turning their sights to the House side,” said Friends of the Earth Legislative Director Shawnee Hoover. “If we don’t getstarted on the House now,
they won’t be able to pass a bill next year.” The Lieberman-Warnerclimate change bill died a short, painful death on the Senate floor
after Republicans forced clerks to readthe entire 492-page bill and supporters were unable to muster the 60 votes needed to thwart a filibuster. Now on the House drawing board is around of new climate change bills, and one could be unveiled by the end of the month, according to Friends of the Earth, which is contributing tothe legislation.
No one expects the legislation to become law this year
. Instead,
the bills will serve as atraining round for the House, which never got to consider the Senate bill. It will be anuphill climb
. The bills are expected to be even tougher than Lieberman-Warner on emission reductions and cap-and-trade auctions. A billrecently introduced by Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) would reduce greenhouse gas emission levels to 85 percent below 1990 levels — moreaggressive than the 70 percent allowed in the bill by Sens. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John Warner (R-Va.).
Contention Two is Harm-Advantage One is Global Warming.
Human-induced warming is happening now – short-term action is critical.Podesta, Stern, and Batten
 
2007
 
(John, Todd, and Kit, President, Managing Director for Energy and Environmental Policy, andSenior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, Capturing the Energy Opportunity, November 2007, Accessed May 15, 2008,http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/11/pdf/energy_chapter.pdf)
There is no longer any real question that global warming is occurring as the result of therapid build-up of greenhouse gases primarily caused by human activities
.
We are on atrajectory for global warming to become much more intense unless we begin a concerted,rapid shift toward a low-carbon economy
. And the danger is increasingly clear and present. As RajendraPachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize,has said, “
If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to threeyears will determine our future.
This is the defining moment.”
2
 
SDI 2008Opening PacketLieberman-Warner Aff 
1AC
Global warming causes disease spread, environmental damage, and escalating regionalconflictsPodesta, Stern, and Batten
 
2007
 
(John, Todd, and Kit, President, Managing Director for Energy and Environmental Policy, andSenior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, Capturing the Energy Opportunity, November 2007, Accessed May 15, 2008,http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/11/pdf/energy_chapter.pdf)
Climate change presents the United States with multiple foreign policy challenges
quite apartfrom those directly connected to our nation’s deepening dependence on imported oil, which we will detail shortly. Thesechallenges include, for example, increased border stress resulting from the impact of climate change-induced storms and droughtsin Mexico and the Caribbean. Or 
consider the complications posed by ever-scarcer water supplies topolitical progress in the Middle East
. Perhaps
the greatest climate change-induced geopoliticalchallenge in the shortterm
 
, though,
will arise in the developing countries in the earth’s lowlatitudes. In these countries, even a relatively small climatic shift can trigger or exacerbatefood shortages, water scarcity, the spread of disease, and natural resource competition.Such conditions fuel political turmoil, drive already weak states toward collapse, andthreaten regional stability
. According to a recent report by 11 former Army generals and Navy admirals,
climatechange is a “threat multiplier for instability” in volatile parts of the world.
16 Nigeria and East Africa pose particularly acute challenges. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, will confront intense drought, desertification, and sea-level rise in thecoming years. Already, approximately 1,350 square miles of Nigerian land turns to desert each year, forcing both farmers and herdsmen toabandon their homes.17 Lagos, the largest Nigerian city, is one of the West African coastal megacities that the IPCC identifies as at risk from sea-level rise by 2015.18 These conditions, coupled with rapid population growth projections, are likely to force significant human migration andcontribute to regional political and economic turmoil. The threat of regional turmoil is higher yet in East Africa because of the concentration of weak or failing states, numerous unresolved political conflicts, and the severe effects of climate change. Climate change will likely create largefluctuations in the amount of rainfall in East Africa during the next 30 years—a 5 percent to 20 percent increase in rainfall during the winter months would cause flooding and soil erosion, while a 5 percent to 10 percent decrease in the summer months would cause severe droughts.19Such volatility will jeopardize the livelihoods of millions of people and the economic capacity of the region: Agriculture constitutes some 40 percent of East Africa’s GDP and employs 80 percent of the population.20 In Darfur and elsewhere in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya, water shortages have already led to the desertification of large tracts of farmland and grassland. Fierce competition between farmers and herdsmen over the remaining arable land, combined with simmering ethnic and religious tensions, helped ignite the first genocide of the 21st century.21 Thisconflict has now spilled into Chad and the Central African Republic. Meanwhile, the entire Horn of Africa remains threatened by a failed Somaliaand other weak states.
Beyond Africa, the IPCC warns that “coastal areas, especially heavilypopulated mega-delta regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, will be at greatest risk dueto increased flooding
from the sea and, in some mega-deltas, flooding from the rivers.”22
In South Asia, thiswill generate political tension as displaced people traverse the region’s many contestedborders and territories, such as those between Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and China. InBangladesh, for example, the combination of deteriorating socioeconomic conditions,radical Islamic political groups, and dire environmental insecurity brought on by climatechange could prove a volatile mix, one with severe regional and potentially globalconsequences.
23
Independently, warming causes human extinctionHenderson 2006
(Bill, Frequent Contributor to online news source CounterCurrents, Counter Currents, August 19, 2006, Accessed May10, 2008, http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson190806.htm)
The scientific debate about human induced global warming is over but policy makers - let alone the happily shopping general public - still seem to not understand the scope of the impending tragedy.
Global warming isn't just warmertemperatures, heat waves, melting ice and threatened polar bears. Scientific understandingincreasingly points to runaway global warming leading to human extinction
.
If 
impossiblyDraconian security
measures are not immediately put in place to keep further emissions of greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere we are looking at the death of billions
 
, the end of civilization as we know it and in all probability the end of man's several million year old existence, along with the extinction of most flora and fauna beloved to man in the world we share.
3

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