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BHR Hegemony Bad

BHR Hegemony Bad

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Published by: AffNeg.Com on Jan 08, 2009
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10/16/2011

 
SDI 08-09BHR
Hegemony Bad
Hegemony Bad............................................................................................................................................................................................................................1Heg Bad – Shell...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................3Heg Bad - Shell............................................................................................................................................................................................................................52nc Overview 1/6........................................................................................................................................................................................................................62nc Overview 2/6........................................................................................................................................................................................................................72nc Overview 3/6........................................................................................................................................................................................................................82nc Overview 4/6........................................................................................................................................................................................................................92nc Overview 5/6......................................................................................................................................................................................................................102nc Overview 6/6......................................................................................................................................................................................................................11AT: Khalilzad 1/2........................................................................................................................................................................................................................12AT: Khalilzad 2/2........................................................................................................................................................................................................................13AT: Ferguson 1/1........................................................................................................................................................................................................................14Decline Stable / Heg Unsustainable..........................................................................................................................................................................................15Decline Stable / Heg Unsustainable..........................................................................................................................................................................................16.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................16Decline Stable...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................17Decline Now Good / Heg Unsustainable....................................................................................................................................................................................18Decline Now Good / Heg Unsustainable....................................................................................................................................................................................19Multipolarity Coming – Neoconservatives.................................................................................................................................................................................20Multipolarity Coming – China, India, EU....................................................................................................................................................................................21Multipolarity Coming – Nations and Non-State..........................................................................................................................................................................22Multipolarity Coming – Non-State..............................................................................................................................................................................................23Multipolarity Coming – EU.........................................................................................................................................................................................................24Multipolarity Coming – Asia.......................................................................................................................................................................................................25Multipolarity Coming – EU and Japan........................................................................................................................................................................................26Heg Unsustainable Political Will..............................................................................................................................................................................................27OSB Good – Solves Conflict / MP Key.........................................................................................................................................................................................28OSB Good – Solves Conflict.......................................................................................................................................................................................................29***AT: Heg Good***...................................................................................................................................................................................................................30Decline doesn’t lead to vacuum................................................................................................................................................................................................30AT: Intervention Good – Bush Blunder.......................................................................................................................................................................................31AT: Intervention Good – Bush Blunder.......................................................................................................................................................................................32AT: Intervention Good – Bush Blunder.......................................................................................................................................................................................33AT: Great Power Wars................................................................................................................................................................................................................34AT: Great Power Wars................................................................................................................................................................................................................35AT: Great Power Wars................................................................................................................................................................................................................36AT: Great Power Wars – European Deterrence...........................................................................................................................................................................37AT: Great Power Wars – Empirics...............................................................................................................................................................................................38...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................38AT: Benign Hegemony...............................................................................................................................................................................................................39AT: Benign Hegemony...............................................................................................................................................................................................................40AT: Benign Hegemony...............................................................................................................................................................................................................41AT: Benign Hegemony...............................................................................................................................................................................................................42AT: Benign Hegemony...............................................................................................................................................................................................................43AT: Global Challengers..............................................................................................................................................................................................................44AT: Hegemony Inevitable..........................................................................................................................................................................................................45AT: Hegemony Inevitable..........................................................................................................................................................................................................46***Heg Bad MPX***...................................................................................................................................................................................................................47***Counterbalancing Shell***....................................................................................................................................................................................................47.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................47CBal – Link.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................48CBal - Link.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................49CBal – Link – EU.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................51.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................51CBal – Link.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................52Soft-Balancing Link....................................................................................................................................................................................................................53Soft-Balancing Link....................................................................................................................................................................................................................54Soft Balancing Link....................................................................................................................................................................................................................55.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................55Soft-Balancing MPX – ME Instability..........................................................................................................................................................................................56Soft-Balancing MPX – Oil Access 1/2.........................................................................................................................................................................................58Soft-Balancing MPX – Oil Access 2/2.........................................................................................................................................................................................59Soft-Balancing MPX Hard Balancing........................................................................................................................................................................................60Soft-Balancing MPX Prolif........................................................................................................................................................................................................61***Power Wars***......................................................................................................................................................................................................................62Power Wars MPX........................................................................................................................................................................................................................63Powers Wars MPX – Must Read..................................................................................................................................................................................................64Power Wars MPX........................................................................................................................................................................................................................65Power Wars Link – Asymmetrical Warfare.................................................................................................................................................................................66Power Wars Link – Russia..........................................................................................................................................................................................................67***East Asian Wars***...............................................................................................................................................................................................................68EAW Link...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................70EAW Link...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................71AT: East Asian Prolif...................................................................................................................................................................................................................72AT: East Asian Prolif...................................................................................................................................................................................................................73.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................73AT: Heg Solves Power Wars.......................................................................................................................................................................................................74AT: China Rise – Japan and S/K..................................................................................................................................................................................................75AT: China Rise – Taiwan.............................................................................................................................................................................................................76AT: China Rise – Bandwagon.....................................................................................................................................................................................................77AT: Taiwan Relations..................................................................................................................................................................................................................78AT: Japan Relations....................................................................................................................................................................................................................79AT: Withdrawal Destabilizes......................................................................................................................................................................................................80AT: Withdrawal Destabilizes......................................................................................................................................................................................................81***North Korea***......................................................................................................................................................................................................................82North Korea Shell......................................................................................................................................................................................................................82North Korea Shell......................................................................................................................................................................................................................83
1
 
SDI 08-09BHR
North Korea Link........................................................................................................................................................................................................................85North Korea Link........................................................................................................................................................................................................................86***Middle East***......................................................................................................................................................................................................................87Middle East Shell.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................87Middle East Shell.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................88Middle East MPX - Afghanistan..................................................................................................................................................................................................89Middle East MPX – Iran..............................................................................................................................................................................................................91Middle East MPX – Iran..............................................................................................................................................................................................................92Middle East MPX – Moderates....................................................................................................................................................................................................93***Terrorism***..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................94 Terrorism Shell..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................94 Terrorism Shell..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................95 Terrorism Link............................................................................................................................................................................................................................96 Terrorism Link............................................................................................................................................................................................................................97***Proliferation***.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................98Prolif Shell.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................98Prolif Shell.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................99.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................99Prolif Link................................................................................................................................................................................................................................100Prolif Link................................................................................................................................................................................................................................101***Economy***........................................................................................................................................................................................................................102Economy Shell.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................102Economy Link..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................104Economy Link Overstretch....................................................................................................................................................................................................105
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SDI 08-09BHR
Heg Bad – ShellAMERICAN HEGEMONY WILL INEVITABLY COLLAPSE FROM COUNTER-BALANCING, OVERSTRETCH AND CREEPING MULTIPOLARITY—EXTENDING IT WILL ONLY GENERATE POWER WARS AND TERRORISM—MUST ESCAPE HEGEMONY NOW FOR OFFSHORE BALANCINGLayne in 6
Professor of Political Science, Christopher, The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategyfrom 1940 to Present
Advocates of hegemony claim that it is illusory to think that the United States can retract its military power safely from Eurasia. The answer to thisassertion is that
 
the risks and costs of American grand strategy are growing, and thestrategy is not likely to work much longer in any event. As other states
notably China—
rapidly close the gap, U.S. hegemony is fated to end inthe next decade or two regardless of U.S. efforts to prolong it
.
At the sametime, understandable doubts about the credibility of U.S. security guarantees are driving creeping re-nationalization by America’s Eurasian allies, which, inturn, is leading to a reversion to multipolaritv. In this changing geopolitical context, the
 
costs of trying to hold on to
 
hegemony are high and going to become higher. Rather than fostering peaceand stability
in Eurasia,
America’s military commitments abroad have becomea source of insecurity for the United States, because they carry the risk of entrapping the United States in great power Eurasian wars. The events of 9/11 are another example of how hegemony makes the United States lesssecure
 
than it would he if it followed an offshore balancing strategy. Terrorism, the RAND Corporation terrorism expert Bruce Hoff- man says, is“about power: the pursuit of power, the acquisition of power, and use of power to achieve political change~.” If we step hack for a moment from ourhorror and revulsion at the events of September 11, we can see that the attack was in keeping with the Clausewitzian paradigm of war: force was usedagainst the United States by its adversaries to advance their political objectives.87 As Clausewitz observed, “War is not an act of senseless passion but iscontrolled by its political object.”88 September 111 represented a violent counter reaction to America’s geopolitical—and cultural—hegemony. As thestrategy expert Richard K. Betts presciently observed in a 1998 Foreign Affairs article: It is hardly likely that Middle Eastern radicals would be hatchingschemes like the destruction of the World Trade Center if the United States had not been identified so long as the mainstay of Israel, the shah of Iran, andconservative Arab regimes and the source of an eternal assault on Islam.
 
U.S. hegemony fuels terrorist groups like al Qaeda and fans Islamicfundamentalism, which is a form of “blowback” against America’spreponderance and its world role.9°As long as the United States maintains itsglobal hegemony
—and its concomitant preeminence in regions like the Persian Gulf—
itwill be the target of 
politically motivated
terrorist groups like al Qaeda
.
After 9/li, manyforeign policy analysts and pundits asked the question, “Why do they hate us?” This question missed the key point. No doubt, there are Islamicfundamentalists who do “hate” the United States for cultural, religious, and ideological reasons. And even leaving aside American neoconservatives’obvious relish for making it so, to some extent the war on terror inescapably has overtones of a “clash of civilizations.” Still, this isn’t—and should not beallowed to become a replay of the Crusades. Fundamentally
 
9/11 was about geopolitics, specifically aboutU.S. hegemony
. The United States may be greatly reviled in some quarters of the Islamic world, but were the United States not sointimately involved in the affairs of the Middle East, it’s hardly likely that this detestation would have manifested itself in something like 9/11. As MichaelScheurer, who headed the CIA analytical team monitoring Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda, puts it, “One of the greatest dangers for Americans in decidinghow to confront the Islamist threat lies in continuing to believe—at the urging of senior U.S. leaders—that Muslims hate and attack us for what we are andthink, rather than for what we do.”91 It is American policies—to be precise, American
 
hegemony—that make the UnitedStates a lightning rod
 
for Muslim anger. Hegemony has proven to be an elusive goal for the great powers that have sought it. TheEuropean great powers that bid for hegemony did so because they were on a geopolitical treadmill. For them, it seemed as if security was attainable onlyby ~eliminating their great power rivals and achieving continental hegemony. And it is this fact that invested great power politics with its tragic quality,because the international system’s power-balancing dynamics doomed all such bids to failure. The United States, on the other hand, has never facedsimilar pressures to seek security through a hegemonic grand strategy, and, too often, instead of enhancing U.S. security as advertised,
America’s hegemonic grand strategy has made the United States lesssecure
. In the early twenty-first century,
by threatening to embroil the UnitedStates in military showdowns with nuclear great powers and exposing theUnited States to terrorism, the pursuit of hegemony means that “over there”well may become over here
.
Objectively, the United States historically has enjoyed an extraordinarily high degree of immunityfrom external threat, a condition that has had nothing to do with whether it is hegemonic and everything to do with geography and its military capabilities.
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