Spartan Debate Institute Burke/Stone/Walters labOil Core v. 1.0 2008 - 2009
Peak Oil – True (Frontline)
1. Peak will happen around 2010-2012. New technologies can’t produce enough to reallymatter and new discoveries have been declining for ever.
Klare June 26, 2008
We could live with the decline of these great reservoirs if we had some confidence that new reserves were beingdiscovered all the time to replace all those now reaching the end of their productive life. But this is not the cas
Despite a sharp increase in spending on exploration and development,
the rate of new reserve discovery has been falling steadilyfor the past 30 years. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the last decade in which new discoveriesexceeded the rate of extraction from existing fields was the 1980s.
Since then we have been consuming more oil than we have been finding – a pattern that can only result, eventually, in the complete exhaustion of the world’s known petroleum reserves. Few New Finds
Only one giant field has been discovered in the past 25 years
Kashagan in Kazakhstan’s sector of the Caspian Sea – and it hasturned out to be an unmitigated disaster. With estimated reserves of 7-13 billion barrels of oil and natural gas liquids, Kashagan was originallyexpected to come on line in 2005 at a cost of $50 billion. As a result of environmental hazards, government intervention, and disputes amongmembers of the consortium established to operate the field, it is now scheduled to begin pumping oil in 2011 at the earliest at a minimum cost of $135 billion. Recently the Brazilian state firm Petrobras has announced an equally large discovery in the deep waters of the Atlantic, some 150miles off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. Although very promising, the Tupi field will take many years to develop and will require the use of morecostly and advanced technology than any now in widespread use.
These new discoveries may add one or two million barrels of oil per day to existing output in 2015 and beyond, but by that point output from existing fields is likely to beconsiderably lower than it is today.
Nobody can predict exactly where combined worldwide production will stand atthat time. But more and more analysts are coming to the conclusion that the output of conventional (i.e., liquid) petroleum will peak at about 95 million barrels per day in the 2010-2012 time-frame and then begin an irreversibledecline. The addition of a few million added barrels from Kashagan or Tupi will not alter this trend.
2. Peak is coming - Unconventional oil sources can’t fill the gap.
SAIC, Project Leader Roger
PEAKING OFWORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENThttp://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf We know of no comprehensive analysis of how fast the Canadian and Venezuelan heavy oil production might be accelerated in a worldsuddenly short of conventional oil.
Recent statements by the World Energy Council (WEC) guided our wedgeestimates:143 • “Unconventional oil is unlikely to fill the gap (
associated with conventionaloil peaking)
. Although the resource base is large and technological progress has been able to bring costs down tocompetitive levels, the dynamics do not suggest a rapid increase in supply
but, rather, a long, slow growth over severaldecades.”