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BSW Oil Core

BSW Oil Core

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09/14/2012

 
Spartan Debate Institute Burke/Stone/Walters labOil Core v. 1.0 2008 - 2009
Oil Core
*
Peak Oil
*
Oil Core...........................................................................................................................................................................1Peak Oil – True (Frontline).............................................................................................................................................3Peak Oil True – XT #1 – Will happen around 2012.......................................................................................................6Peak Oil True – XT #2 – Alternatives sources can’t solve.............................................................................................7Peak Oil True – XT #3 – Not fringe science...................................................................................................................8Peak Oil True – XT #5 / No Reserves.............................................................................................................................9Peak Oil –Not true (Frontline)......................................................................................................................................11Peak Oil –Not true / XT #1(a) – Reserves will exist for a while .................................................................................14Peak Oil –Not true / XT #1(b) – Unconventional sources............................................................................................16Peak Oil –Not true / XT #2 – Peak Oil is a myth.........................................................................................................17Peak Oil –Not true / XT #3 – Hubbert’s Model wrong.................................................................................................18Peak Oil –Not true / XT #4 – New Tech Solves...........................................................................................................20Peak Oil – No Impact....................................................................................................................................................21Yes – Prices High.........................................................................................................................................................22Perception Key to Prices...............................................................................................................................................23High Prices Inevitable - Frontline.................................................................................................................................24High Prices Inevitable - Frontline.................................................................................................................................25High Oil Prices Inevitable XT #1 – China/India..........................................................................................................26High Prices Inevitable XT #3 – Global Demand..........................................................................................................27Oil Prices – Russia DA (1nc)........................................................................................................................................28Russian Economy High.................................................................................................................................................29High Oil Prices Key Economy......................................................................................................................................31US-Russian Relations Impact Add-on..........................................................................................................................33Russia Has Vast Oil Supplies.......................................................................................................................................34AT: Russia has diversified economy.............................................................................................................................35Russia production has peaked.......................................................................................................................................36Alexander Kolyandr, Dow Jones Newswires, July 1 2008 OIL CONGRESS: Russia's Oil Output Has ReachedPlateau -Dep Min..........................................................................................................................................................36http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20080701%5cACQDJON200807010803DOWJONESDJONLINE000223.htm&&mypage=newsheadlines&title=OIL%20CONGRESS:%20Russia's%20Oil%20Output%20Has%20Reached%20Plateau%20-Dep%20Min.........................................................................................................36MADRID -(Dow Jones)- Russia's oil production will grow only marginally this year and in the near term, Russia'sdeputy minister for energy said Tuesday, and has in effect hit a plateau for now........................................................36"No one should expect that Russia's oil production growth will match the one we've witnessed in the past eightyears," Anatoly Yanovsky said on the sidelines of the World Petroleum Congress.....................................................36Over that period, Russia's annual oil production grew from 360 million metric tons to just above 490 million tons.36"Nothing like that will happen", the official said, adding, that Russia's oil production has hit a plateau which willremain unchanged until new large fields in Eastern Siberia and offshore come upstream..........................................36After several years of stable growth, production of oil and gas condensate in Russia dropped 0.3% in the first four months of this year compared with the same period a year previously, to 161 million tons, or 1.18 billion barrels,according to the government.........................................................................................................................................36Russia has diversified...................................................................................................................................................37Russian economy resilient............................................................................................................................................38High Oil Prices Bad – Deters Economic Liberalization...............................................................................................39High Oil Prices Bad – Collapse Russian Democracy...................................................................................................40High Oil Prices Bad – Causes hyperinflation...............................................................................................................41High oil prices bad: Hurt Russian Economy ................................................................................................................42Russia weakness /collapse impact................................................................................................................................43Renewables (1nc)..........................................................................................................................................................44High Prices key to Renewables.....................................................................................................................................45Renewables 2ac.............................................................................................................................................................49AT Renewables – XT #1 – Not dependent on oil prices...............................................................................................501
 
Spartan Debate Institute Burke/Stone/Walters labOil Core v. 1.0 2008 - 2009Renewables Fail...........................................................................................................................................................51Oil Prices – Saudi Arabia DA (1nc)..............................................................................................................................52Saudi Economy High....................................................................................................................................................53Link XT / High Oil Prices Key to SA Stability............................................................................................................54Impact XT / US draw in...............................................................................................................................................55Saudi Arabia Answers (2AC)........................................................................................................................................56Saudi Arabia Answers – XT #1 / SA has diversified....................................................................................................57Saudi Arabia Answers – XT #3 / High Oil Prices= Reforms........................................................................................58Saudi Arabia Answers – XT #4 / SA funds terrorism...................................................................................................59Backstopping (1NC).....................................................................................................................................................60Yes - Renewables..........................................................................................................................................................61Link XT – OPEC will flood the market........................................................................................................................62Impact XT – Low oil prices increase dependence........................................................................................................65 No link – OPEC can’t control market with flooding....................................................................................................66Hedge Funds Collapse (1nc).........................................................................................................................................67Hedge Funds XT...........................................................................................................................................................68Oil Prices Fluctuate.......................................................................................................................................................69High oil prices (bad) = dollar collapse..........................................................................................................................70High Oil Prices (bad) - Hurt Economy ........................................................................................................................71High Oil Prices (Bad) – Collapse Democracy (general)...............................................................................................72AT: Venezuela Oil Prices/Econ DA..............................................................................................................................73Extend #3- Resources Curse.........................................................................................................................................75Dependence Bad – Terrorism Module..........................................................................................................................76Dependence Bad – Causes Terrorism (XT)..................................................................................................................77Dependence Bad – Oil Shocks Module........................................................................................................................81Dependence Bad – Causes Oil Shocks (XT)................................................................................................................82Shocks bad – A2: the economy will bounce back.........................................................................................................83Strategic Reserves Fail..................................................................................................................................................84Oil Shocks won’t cause recession.................................................................................................................................85Dependence Bad – Caspian..........................................................................................................................................88Dependence Bad – US Hegemony...............................................................................................................................90Dependence Bad – Middle East Democracy................................................................................................................92Dependence Good – US Presence in the Caspian.........................................................................................................93Dependence Good – US Presence in the Caspian.........................................................................................................94Caspian Defense............................................................................................................................................................95Dependence Good – Prevents shocks...........................................................................................................................97Dependence good – terrorism.....................................................................................................................................1002
 
Spartan Debate Institute Burke/Stone/Walters labOil Core v. 1.0 2008 - 2009
Peak Oil – True (Frontline)
1. Peak will happen around 2010-2012. New technologies can’t produce enough to reallymatter and new discoveries have been declining for ever.
Michael
Klare June 26, 2008
 http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5326End of the Petroleum Age?
We could live with the decline of these great reservoirs if we had some confidence that new reserves were beingdiscovered all the time to replace all those now reaching the end of their productive life. But this is not the cas
e.
 
Despite a sharp increase in spending on exploration and development,
the rate of new reserve discovery has been falling steadilyfor the past 30 years. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the last decade in which new discoveriesexceeded the rate of extraction from existing fields was the 1980s.
Since then we have been consuming more oil than we have been finding – a pattern that can only result, eventually, in the complete exhaustion of the world’s known petroleum reserves. Few New Finds
Only one giant field has been discovered in the past 25 years
 – 
Kashagan in Kazakhstan’s sector of the Caspian Sea – and it hasturned out to be an unmitigated disaster. With estimated reserves of 7-13 billion barrels of oil and natural gas liquids, Kashagan was originallyexpected to come on line in 2005 at a cost of $50 billion. As a result of environmental hazards, government intervention, and disputes amongmembers of the consortium established to operate the field, it is now scheduled to begin pumping oil in 2011 at the earliest at a minimum cost of $135 billion. Recently the Brazilian state firm Petrobras has announced an equally large discovery in the deep waters of the Atlantic, some 150miles off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. Although very promising, the Tupi field will take many years to develop and will require the use of morecostly and advanced technology than any now in widespread use.
 
These new discoveries may add one or two million barrels of oil per day to existing output in 2015 and beyond, but by that point output from existing fields is likely to beconsiderably lower than it is today.
 
 Nobody can predict exactly where combined worldwide production will stand atthat time. But more and more analysts are coming to the conclusion that the output of conventional (i.e., liquid) petroleum will peak at about 95 million barrels per day in the 2010-2012 time-frame and then begin an irreversibledecline. The addition of a few million added barrels from Kashagan or Tupi will not alter this trend.
 
2. Peak is coming - Unconventional oil sources can’t fill the gap.
Robert L.
Hirsch
,
SAIC, Project Leader Roger 
Bezdek,
 
MISI Robert
Wendling
,
MISI February
2005
 
PEAKING OFWORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENThttp://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf We know of no comprehensive analysis of how fast the Canadian and Venezuelan heavy oil production might be accelerated in a worldsuddenly short of conventional oil.
Recent statements by the World Energy Council (WEC) guided our wedgeestimates:143 “Unconventional oil is unlikely to fill the gap (
associated with conventionaloil peaking)
. Although the resource base is large and technological progress has been able to bring costs down tocompetitive levels, the dynamics do not suggest a rapid increase in supply
 but, rather, a long, slow growth over severaldecades.”
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