Welcome to Scribd. Sign in or start your free trial to enjoy unlimited e-books, audiobooks & documents.Find out more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword or section
Like this
11Activity

Table Of Contents

0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
A Valuation of Carlsberg

A Valuation of Carlsberg

Ratings: (0)|Views: 439|Likes:

More info:

Published by: Dhani Ahmad Prasetyo on Jun 30, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

05/02/2013

pdf

text

original

 
 
 page 1 of 151
A Valuation of Carlsberg
Master Thesis, February 2011Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business SchoolM.Sc. in Financial & Strategic Management/ M.Sc. in Finance & AccountingPages: 121Characters Count (with spaces): 209.448Figures: 76Characters Count (with spaces) with figures: 270.248AuthorsOlivier Don Cato Meelby Sørensen Janus Rudolf  ____________ ____________ Counselor Christian Wurtz ______________ 
 
 
 
 page 2 of 151
Executive summary
................................................................................................. 4
 
1.0 Introduction - Chapter I 5
 
1.1 Motivation
...................................................................................................... 5
 
1.2 Problem Statement
.............................................................................................. 6
 
This is Carlsberg (Chapter II)
 .................................................................................... 6
 
Strategic Analysis (Chapter III)
................................................................................. 6
 
Financial Analysis (Chapter IV)
................................................................................. 7
 
Budgets and Forecasting (Chapter V)
........................................................................... 7
 
Valuation (Chapter VI)
.......................................................................................... 7
 
1.3 Methodology, study design and empirical- and theoretical base
 .............................................. 8
 
Chapter I - Introduction
.......................................................................................... 8
 
Chapter II – What is Carlsberg?
................................................................................. 9
 
Chapter III – Strategic Analysis
................................................................................. 9
 
Chapter IV – Financial Analysis
................................................................................ 9
 
Chapter V - Budgets and Forecasting
......................................................................... 10
 
Chapter VI - Valuation
......................................................................................... 10
 
Project structure
................................................................................................ 10
 
1.4 Delimitations
.................................................................................................. 11
 
1.5 Source Criticism
.............................................................................................. 12
 
2.0 What is Carlsberg? Chapter II 12
 
2.1 The History of Carlsberg
..................................................................................... 13
 
2.2 Organization
.................................................................................................. 15
 
2.3 Corporate Governance
........................................................................................ 16
 
2.3.1 Ownership structure
..................................................................................... 16
 
2.3.2 Corporate Governance Practices at Carlsberg
.......................................................... 18
 
2.4 The Strategy of the Carlsberg Group
........................................................................ 18
 
2.4.1 Excellence Programme
.................................................................................. 19
 
2.4.2 Growth focus
............................................................................................. 19
 
2.4.3 Markets
................................................................................................... 19
 
2.4.4 Products
.................................................................................................. 22
 
2.5 The Financial Development of Carlsberg
.................................................................... 23
 
2.5.1 The Carlsberg B Stock 
................................................................................... 24
 
2.5.2 Segmented Financial Performance
...................................................................... 24
 
2.6 Part Conclusion
............................................................................................... 26
 
3.0 Strategic Analysis Chapter III 27
 
3.1 Macro Environment
.......................................................................................... 27
 
3.1.1 Asian Market
............................................................................................. 27
 
3.1.2 Eastern Europe
........................................................................................... 29
 
3.1.3 Northern & Western Europe
............................................................................. 32
 
3.2 Industry Analysis
............................................................................................. 33
 
3.2.1 Porter’s Five Forces
...................................................................................... 34
 
3.2.2 Competitor Analysis
..................................................................................... 45
 
3.2.3 Market life cycle
......................................................................................... 49
 
3.2.4. Peer Group Comparison
................................................................................ 51
 
3.3 Internal Analysis
.............................................................................................. 52
 
3.3.1 Value Chain Analysis
.................................................................................... 52
 
3.4 Part Conclusion
............................................................................................... 57
 
4.0 Financial Analysis Chapter IV 61
 
4.1 Preparing the Financial Statements for Analytical Purposes
................................................ 62
 
4.1.1 Income Statement
........................................................................................ 62
 
4.1.2 Balance Sheet
............................................................................................ 63
 
4.2 Profitability Analysis
......................................................................................... 64
 
4.2.1 Du-Pont
................................................................................................... 65
 
4.3 Common-size and Trend Analysis
........................................................................... 70
 
4.3.1 Common-size Analysis; Income Statement
............................................................. 70
 
4.3.2 Trend Analysis; Income Statements
..................................................................... 71
 
4.3.3 Common-size Analysis; Balance Sheet
................................................................. 72
 
 
 
 page 3 of 151
4.3.4 Trend Analysis; Balance Sheet
.......................................................................... 73
 
4.4 Growth Analysis
.............................................................................................. 73
 
4.5 Risk Analysis
................................................................................................. 75
 
4.5.1 Business Risk 
............................................................................................ 75
 
4.5.2 Financial Risk 
............................................................................................ 76
 
4.5 Part Conclusion
............................................................................................... 78
 
5.0 Budget and Forecast Chapter V 79
 
5.1 Possible Scenarios
............................................................................................ 80
 
5.1.1 Scenario – Most Likely
.................................................................................. 81
 
5.1.2 Worst Case Scenario
..................................................................................... 88
 
5.1.3 Scenario – Best Case
..................................................................................... 89
 
5.2 Part conclusion
................................................................................................ 90
 
6.0 Valuation Chapter VI 91
 
6.1 Discussion of the Valuation Models
......................................................................... 92
 
6.1.1 Assumptions
 .............................................................................................. 92
 
6.1.2 Pros and Cons of DCF and EVA models
............................................................... 93
 
6.2 Weighted Average Cost of Capital – WACC
................................................................ 93
 
6.2.1 Capital Asset Pricing Model – CAPM
.................................................................. 94
 
6.2.2 Net Cost of Debt
......................................................................................... 97
 
6.2.3 Market Value of Equity
.................................................................................. 98
 
6.2.4 Estimation of WACC
.................................................................................... 98
 
6.3 Discounted Cash Flow - DCF
................................................................................ 98
 
6.3.1 Valuing Best and Worst Case
........................................................................... 99
 
6.4 Economic Value Added - EVA
............................................................................. 100
 
6.5 Sensitivity Analysis
.......................................................................................... 101
 
6.6 Multiples
..................................................................................................... 105
 
6.6.1 EV/EBITDA
............................................................................................ 105
 
6.6.2 P/E
....................................................................................................... 106
 
6.6.3 Evaluating Multiples
.................................................................................... 106
 
6.7 Drivers of differences between multiple- and cash flow-based valuation
................................. 108
 
6.8 Part Conclusion
.............................................................................................. 108
 
7.0 Conclusion Chapter VII 109
 
8.0 Perspectives Chapter VIII 113
 
9.0 References Chapter IX 117
 
Appendix 1 - Consumption Substitution Products 124
 
Appendix 2 - Consumer Expenditures Alcoholic Beverages 125
 
Appendix 3 - Regional Market Data 2009 127
 
Appendix 4 - Brand Market Share of Carlsberg and its Peer Group 128
 
Appendix 5 - Analytical Income Statements and Balance Sheets 131
 
Appendix 6 - Common Size & Trend Analysis 136
 
Appendix 7 - Risk Model 138
 
Appendix 8 - Budgets & Forecasts 139
 
Appendix 9 - DCF & EVA Valuation 144
 
Appendix 10 - Credit Rating Carlsberg 146
 
Appendix 11 - MLC 147
 
Appendix 12 - Porters Generic Value Chain 148
 
Appendix 13 - Project Management Model 149
 
Appendix 14 - Inflation Rate 150
 
Appendix 15 - Weights of Revenue 151
 

Activity (11)

You've already reviewed this. Edit your review.
1 hundred reads
sdinu liked this
Gyanu Koirala liked this
ksrao03 liked this
Alice Liao liked this
syazwanyr liked this
syazwanyr liked this
syazwanyr liked this
Juneling Ng liked this

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->