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Chana Spread Report

Chana Spread Report

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Published by Abhinav Narula

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Published by: Abhinav Narula on Jul 01, 2012
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06/02/2015

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Chana Spread Report 2012
 
Chana Spread Report
2012
 
1
Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt. Ltd.
 
Chana Spread CallStrategySell April & Buy May
-40 to -20
Target 
-130 & -200
Stop Loss
40
Research Team
Kunal Shah
 
+91 22 3926 8043
 
Ankita Parekh
 
+91 22 3926 8037
Ravi D’souza
 
+91 22 3926 8067
 
Taking the historical analysis into consideration, we have seen the spread between April andMay has remained in contango. The spread has widened to 100 on an average and 250 inextreme cases. This year also we expect the current contango to widen towards expirysupported by the following reasons.
Source: NCDEX, NB Research
Usually the new domestic crop arrives in the market by March and is expected to be delayedthis year due to adverse weather conditions. As a result of which market may witness thearrival pressure to continue till mid April.On the demand supply scenario, we expect chana crop this year to be around 46-47 lakh tonnescompared to 50 lakh tonnes last year. Further, a tight supply scenario is painted in the yearahead on the back of negligible carry forward stock for the year 2012. Carry forward stock isexpected be around 0.5 lakh tonnes compared to 1.8 lakh tonnes in 2011 which goes to showthat markets would remain supported after the arrival pressure eases.
TRADING CALL: - SELL APRIL AND BUY MAY NEAR -40 to –20 TGT -130 and -200 SL 40 
-300-250-200-150-100-50050100
   1    5    9    1   3    1   7    2   1    2   5    2   9    3   3    3   7    4   1    4   5    4   9    5   3    5   7    6   1    6   5    6   9    7   3    7   7    8   1    8   5    8   9    9   3    9   7    1   0   1    1   0   5    1   0   9    1   1   3 
   S  p  r  e  a   d 
April - May Spread
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
No. Of Days

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