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Keputusan Dalam Ketidakpastian Dan Resiko

Keputusan Dalam Ketidakpastian Dan Resiko

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Categories:Types, Business/Law
Published by: andre_willim5990 on Jul 01, 2012
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11/27/2013

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Lecturer : Muchdie, PhD in Economics
PhD in Economics
, 1998,Dept. of Economics, TheUniversity of Queensland,Australia.
Post Graduate Diploma inRegional Dev.,
1994, Dept.of Economics, The Univ. of Queensland, Australia.
 
MS in Rural & RegionalDevelopment Planning
,1986, Graduate School,Bogor AgriculturalUniversity, Bogor
Bab 13 :
Keputusan DalamKetidakpastian danResiko
 
Pengantar
Keputusan Dalam Ketidakpastian
Kriteria Maximin, Kriteria Maximax,Kriteria Minimax (Kroteria Regret),Kriteria Hurwicz, Kriteria Laplace
Keputusan Dalam Resiko
Kriteria Nilai Harapan (Expected Value),Kriteria Nilai Harapan Yang Hilang(Expected Opportunity Loss), KriteriaNilai Harapann Informasi Sempurna(Expected Value of Information)
 
Suasana pengambilan keputusan : dalam pasti(
certainty 
), dalam keadaan resiko (
risk
), dalamketidakpastian (
uncertainty 
), dalam suasana konflik(
conflict
).
Analisis keputusan dalam ketidakpastian : informasiyang tersedia tidak sempurna (tidak lengkap),peristiwa yang akan terjadi mungkin dapatdiketahui, tetapi probabilitasnya tidak diketahuikarena distribusi probabilitasnya tidak dapatdisajikan.
Analisis keputusan dalam resiko : informasi yangtersedia tidak sempurna, seluruh peristiwa yangakan terjadi dapat diketahuim probabilitas kejadiandapat diketahui karena distribusi probabilitasnyatidak dapat disajikan.

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